chasing predictability

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Learn how to use a simple system model to improve the predictability of a team.


  • 1. Chasing Predictability 1CHASINGPREDICTABILITYIn fiction: we find the predictable boring. In real life: we find theunpredictable terrifying. Mokokoma Mokhonoana, South African authorFrank Saucier, Executive and Agile

2. Chasing Predictability 2 FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014Team TimeOrganize yourselves into teamsof 4-5 people and share thefollowing info with your team:Hello1. Your name.2. Why you decided to attend tonight.3. Your definition of the word predictable. 3. Chasing Predictability 3Working DefinitionsPredictable (adj): Behaving in a way that isexpected, especially on the basis of previous orknown behavior.System (n): A group of interconnected items.Predictable System (n): A group ofinterconnected items that behave in a way that isexpected, especially on the basis of previous orknown behavior. FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 4. Chasing Predictability 4One of My Coaching GoalsTo help teams take ownership for becoming a highfunctioning, self organizing, collaborative, andpredictable system. FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 5. Chasing Predictability 5Simple System ModelInput System Output FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 6. Chasing Predictability 6Simple Team as System ModelInput Team Output FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 7. Chasing Predictability 7Examples of Simple SystemsTo Do Doing DoneSimple Kanban FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014ProductBacklogSprintBacklogSprintPlanningSprint Event 8. Chasing Predictability 8Scrum as String of Simple SystemsDaily Daily Retrospective FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014SprintPlanningSprintReview 9. Chasing Predictability 9Working DefinitionPredictability Lens (n): Perspective used toconsider or examine the relationship thatsomething has to the predictability of a system. FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 10. Chasing Predictability 10Predictability Matrix FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014InputSystemPP UUP UP UAs a team, completethe predictability matrix.P = PredictableU = Unpredictable 11. Chasing Predictability 11 FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014Energy LossWhile a highly predictable team may be able toaccommodate for some unpredictable work, it willexpend significant energy to do so.InputSystemPP UUP UP U 12. Chasing Predictability 12Where to Chase PredictabilityStep 1: Work to improvethe predictabilityof the system.Input System OutputStep 2: Work to improve FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014the predictabilityof the inputs. 13. Chasing Predictability 13Said DifferentlyIf you want to increase the predictability ofthe outputs of a team, you need to:1. Help the team become more predictable.2. Help the work going to the team becomemore predictable. FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 14. Chasing Predictability 14Question TimeAs a team, answer the followingquestion:What are 3 ways practices likeScrum, Kanban, and Lean helpteams become more predictable? FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 15. Chasing Predictability 15Where Teams Struggle With PredictabilityScrum: Grooming (where, when, how much) Collaboration (silo behaviors) Acceptance Criteria (level of detail) Kanban:Work in Process Limits (not used) Policies (missing or not visible) Collaboration (silos as lanes) FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 16. Chasing Predictability 16How Beliefs Impact PredictabilityIn order for Agile practices (behaviors) to producemore predictable results, a team needs to undergoa shift in their mindset (beliefs).ExpectationsBeliefs BehaviorHarder ExperiencesEasier FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 17. Chasing Predictability 17How Visibility Impacts PredictabilityWhen teams make their work visible:1.They can see whats coming and prepare for it.2.They can see whats being worked on andinfluence it.3.They can see what the system wants to reveal.When we can prepare for and influence ourwork, we are more predictable. FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 18. Chasing Predictability 18 FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014Bad ToolsThese are not good tools for chasing predictability. 19. Chasing Predictability 19Better ApproachesThese are better tools for chasing predictability. FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014ConductExperimentsGatherDataExamineBehaviors 20. Chasing Predictability 20Team ScenarioYour on a Scrum team and when your Sprint ended thefollowing information was revealed.PlannedWorkCompletedWorkAs a team, discuss how the information might be related topredictability and share ideas on approaches you could use to chasepredictability. FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 21. Chasing Predictability 21RECAP, TAKEAWAYS,AND TO DOS FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 22. Chasing Predictability 22UPCOMING CLASSES FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014 23. Chasing Predictability 23FreeStanding Agility 1-Day ClassesLean and Kanban Fundamentals - 9/17Agile and Scrum Fundamentals - 9/23Product Owner Skills - 9/24Become an Awesome Scrum Master - 10/29Visit for more info. FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014