The Cause of Climate Change

Because global warming is an increase of the AVERAGE global atmospheric temperature.

Different parts of the Earth are effected differently.

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.

Although the temperature increase here in Indiana so far is only between 1 and 2 degrees (Fahrenheit), the temperature in the arctic has risen about 10+ degrees (Fahrenheit).

True or False? “It’s JUST a theory.” Scientific Law: This is a statement of fact meant to describe, in concise

terms, an action or set of actions. It is generally accepted to be true and universal, and can sometimes be expressed in terms of a single mathematical equation. Scientific laws are similar to mathematical postulates. They don’t really need any complex external proofs; they are accepted at face value based upon the fact that they have always been observed to be true.

Hypothesis: This is an educated guess based upon observation. It is a rational explanation of a single event or phenomenon based upon what is observed, but which has not been proved. Most hypotheses can be supported or refuted by experimentation or continued observation.

Scientific Theory: A theory is more like a scientific law than a hypothesis. A theory is an explanation of a set of related observations or events based upon proven hypotheses and verified multiple times by detached groups of researchers. One scientist cannot create a theory; he can only create a hypothesis. So is it “JUST” a theory? No. It is accepted by the scientific community as fact.

The biggest difference between a law and a theory is that a theory is much more complex and dynamic. A law describes a single action, whereas a theory explains an entire group of related phenomena.

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

The Relationship Between CO2 and Global Warming

Many use data to argue against Global

Warming

If you stare at a tree you may not see the forest. Look at last 150 years.

Last 1000 years.

Last 400,000 years. This Graph from NASA website.

Note that temperature lags by 20 to 30 years. We have no reason to think that temperature will not follow CO2 as it has always done.

Where do they get the data… how do they know the CO2 and Temperature levels thousands of years ago?

Ice Core SamplesTree RingsFossil RecordWritten RecordsChemical isotopesVolcanic ashSaltCarbon dioxide, methane and

nitrous oxideDust

Click on link below to visit a very informative website.

http://www.climatechangenorth.ca/section-BG/BG_HS_05_O_E.html

The new argument against global warming is that in the 1970’s the scientific community predicted global cooling and a possible plunge into another ice age.

Some did.Most didn’t.The media hyped it.

Since then, the data has continued to come in and today 97% agree with the Theory of Global Warming.

For more, continue…

1970's "Ice Age" Global Cooling ScareMany individual scientists argue one or more of the

following:Global Warming is not happening at all.It is happening, but not caused by man. Causes are

natural.It is caused by man, but the effects will not be

serious.

ALL major scientific bodies who’s work deals with the atmosphere agree that:Global Warming IS happening.Man’s activities ARE contributing significantly.The consequences will vary depending on where on

the globe you are, but they will be severe and expensive.

Here's MIT climatologist Richard Lindzen – one of the few climate- change skeptics with credentials in the subject – writing for the Cato Institute in 1992:

“Indeed, the global cooling trend of the 1950s and 1960s led to a minor global cooling hysteria in the 1970s. ... But the scientific community never took the issue to heart, governments ignored it, and with rising global temperatures in the late 1970s the issue more or less died.”

“In short, science isn't monolithic. For instance, when a handful of prominent scientists gather in California to discuss the possibility of machines outsmarting humans, there's no need to panic just yet. But if every major scientific institution in the world were to warn of an imminent robot uprising, then it's time to take the battery out of your Roomba.”

The Scientific Consensus On May 15, the peer-reviewed paper,

Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature was published in the scientific journal, Environmental Research Letters. The paper presents The Consensus Project (TCP) – a survey of over 12,000 peer-reviewed climate science papers by our volunteer, citizen science team at Skeptical Science. The analysis  found a 97% consensus among papers taking a position on the cause of global warming in the peer-reviewed literature that humans are responsible.

The Scientific Consensus

The Scientific Consensus

The Scientific Consensus

For a better understanding of the scientific consensus and political

controversy read the following article.

Science Magazine is a peer review journal widely respected in the

scientific community.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686

ConsequencesHarm to ocean life

Through global warming, the surface waters of the oceans could become warmer, increasing the stress on ocean ecosystems, such as coral reefs. High water temperatures can cause a damaging process called coral bleaching. When corals bleach, they expel the algae that give them their color and nourishment. The corals turn white and, unless the water temperature cools, they die. Added warmth also helps spread diseases that affect sea creatures.

Changes of habitat

Widespread shifts might occur in the natural habitats of animals and plants. Many species would have difficulty surviving in the regions they now inhabit. For example, many flowering plants will not bloom without a sufficient period of winter cold. And human occupation has altered the landscape in ways that would make new habitats hard to reach or unavailable altogether.

Consequences

Weather damage

Extreme weather conditions might become more frequent and therefore more damaging. Changes in rainfall patterns could increase both flooding and drought in some areas. More hurricanes and other tropical storms might occur, and they could become more powerful.

Consequences

Rising sea level

Continued global warming might, over centuries, melt large amounts of ice from a vast sheet that covers most of West Antarctica. As a result, the sea level would rise throughout the world. Many coastal areas would experience flooding, erosion, a loss of wetlands, and an entry of seawater into freshwater areas. High sea levels would submerge some coastal cities, small island nations, and other inhabited regions.

Consequences

Threats to human health Tropical diseases, such as malaria and

dengue, might spread to larger regions. Longer-lasting and more intense heat waves could cause more deaths and illnesses. Floods and droughts could increase hunger and malnutrition.

Consequences

Changes in crop yields

Canada and parts of Russia might benefit from an increase in crop yields. But any increases in yields could be more than offset by decreases caused by drought and higher temperatures -- particularly if the amount of warming were more than a few degrees Celsius. Yields in the tropics might fall disastrously because temperatures there are already almost as high as many crop plants can tolerate.

Consequences

Climatologists are studying ways to limit global warming.

Two key methods would be (1)limiting CO2 emissions and (2)(2) carbon sequestration -- either

preventing carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere or removing CO2 already there.

Solutions?

(1) to replace fossil fuels with energy sources that do not emit CO2, and

(2) (2) to use fossil fuels more efficiently.

How to Limit CO2

Kyoto Protocol

Agreement on global warming Delegates from more than 160 countries

met in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 to draft the agreement that became known as the Kyoto Protocol. That agreement calls for decreases in the emissions of greenhouse gases.

Emissions targets Thirty-eight industrialized nations would have to restrict

their emissions of CO2 and five other greenhouse gases. The restrictions would occur from 2008 through 2012. Different countries would have different emissions targets. As a whole, the 38 countries would restrict their emissions to a yearly average of about 95 percent of their 1990 emissions. The agreement does not place restrictions on developing countries. But it encourages the industrialized nations to cooperate in helping developing countries limit emissions voluntarily.

Industrialized nations could also buy or sell emission reduction units. Suppose an industrialized nation cut its emissions more than was required by the agreement. That country could sell other industrialized nations emission reduction units allowing those nations to emit the amount equal to the excess it had cut.

Several other programs could also help an industrialized nation earn credit toward its target. For example, the nation might help a developing country reduce emissions by replacing fossil fuels in some applications.

Kyoto Protocol

Approving the agreement The protocol would take effect as a treaty if (1) at least 55

countries ratified (formally approved) it, and (2) the industrialized countries ratifying the protocol had CO2 emissions in 1990 that equaled at least 55 percent of the emissions of all 38 industrialized countries in 1990.

In 2001, the United States rejected the Kyoto Protocol. President George W. Bush said that the agreement could harm the U.S. economy. But he declared that the United States would work with other countries to limit global warming. Other countries, most notably the members of the European Union, agreed to continue with the agreement without United States participation.

By 2004, more than 100 countries, including nearly all the countries classified as industrialized under the protocol, had ratified the agreement. However, the agreement required ratification by Russia or the United States to go into effect. Russia ratified the protocol in November 2004. The treaty was to come into force in February 2005.

Kyoto Protocol

The United Nations Climate Change Conference took place at the Bella Center in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December of 2009.

192 Nations attended, including the U.S.

See the results on the next slide.

Copenhagen

The Copenhagen Accord was drafted by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa on December 18, and judged a "meaningful agreement" by the United States government. It was "taken note of", but not "adopted", in a debate of all the participating countries the next day, and it was not passed unanimously. The document recognized that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the present day and that actions should be taken to keep any temperature increases to below 2°C. The document is not legally binding and does not contain any legally binding commitments for reducing CO2 emissions.