Metropolitan Policy ProgramRobert Puentes, Fellow

The Brookings Institution

Eno Foundation Forum on the Future of Urban TransportationDecember 6, 2006Washington, DC

Caution: Challenges AheadA Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation

FOUR BROAD DEMOGRAPHIC MEGA-TRENDS

A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation

Effect of those trends on metropolitan areas

Impacts on the nation’s transportation network

Outline

Effect of those trends on metropolitan areasEffect of those trends on metropolitan areasEffect of those trends on metropolitan areas

Impacts on the nationImpacts on the nationImpacts on the nation’’’s transportation networks transportation networks transportation network

Population Growth Immigration Internal MigrationAging

The 1990s presented the strongest growth in four decades.

U.S. population growth, 1900-2005

Source: Census

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Decade

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Numerical increase (in millions) Percent Increase

Single person households made up -- by far -- the largestincrease in household type since 1990.

1-person household, 11,825,702

Married no kids, 5,476,979

Single male w /kids, 2,165,939

Other family, 1,758,377

Nonfamily, 3,416,246

Married w /kids, 1,376,788

Single female w /kids, 4,680,913

Absolute change in households, 1980-2005

Source: Frey and Berube, 2003

14%

12%

7%

5%5%

6%

12%

15%

11%

8%

13%

9%

-

10

20

30

40

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Popu

latio

n in

Mill

ions

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

Foreign Born Population (in millions)Percent of Total Population

After several decades of rapid immigration, the share of the U.S. population that is foreign-born is approaching early 1900’s levels.

Total foreign-born and percent, 1900-2005

Source: Updated from Singer 2005

1970

6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6%

<5

85+

Male Female

2020

6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6%

<5

85+

Male Female

US Age Distribution, 1970 vs. 2020

At the same time, the U.S. population is aging rapidly.

Source: Census

Whites

Male Female

\

Hispanics

Male Female

Blacks

Male Female

API/AI

Male Female

US Age Distribution, 2020

Minorities, however, have younger age structures than whites

Source: Census

New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland

The demographic components of change reveal increasingly sharp differences between states.

Source: Frey, 2002

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Ariz

ona

Col

orad

o

Geo

rgia

Texa

s

Cal

iforn

ia

New

Yor

k

Min

neso

ta

Mis

sour

i

Pen

nsyl

vani

a

Immigration Domestic Natural

New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland

The demographic components of change reveal increasingly sharp differences between states.

Demographic components of change, 1990-1999

Source: Census

EFFECT OF THOSE TRENDS ON METROPOLITAN AREAS

A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation

Four broad demographic megaFour broad demographic megaFour broad demographic mega---trendstrendstrends

Outline

Impacts on the nationImpacts on the nationImpacts on the nation’’’s transportation networks transportation networks transportation network

City resurgence

Uneven growth

Job sprawl

Geography of poverty

Racial diversity

Recent demographic and market changes have already led to a surge of population in cities and downtowns.

Source: Census

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

-

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

Population growth in 50 largest cities, 1970-2005

Total population, 45 U.S. downtowns, 1970-2000

The majority of downtowners in 2000 lived alone;the next largest group contained young couples without kids.

6%

14%

5%

5%

59%

11% Married with kidsMarried without kidsOther family with kidsOther family without kidsLiving aloneOther non-family

Downtown households by type, 2000

Source: Birch, 2005

City Population

ChangeNumber of

Cities

Metro Population

ChangeCity Category

Rapid Growth (over 20%) 18 31% 26%

Significant Growth (10 to 20%) 23 15% 22%

Moderate Growth (2 to 10%) 33 6% 13%

No Growth (-2 to 2%) 6 0% 11%

Loss (below -2%) 20 -7% 6%

The primary determinant for how a city grows is based on the metropolitan area it is in.

Source: Berube, 2003

Average city and metro area population change, by category, 1990-2000

City resurgence

Uneven growth

Job sprawl

Geography of poverty

Racial diversity

4%

19%

7%9%

44%

16%18%

6%

37%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100

City Suburbs

Population is continuing to decentralize in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area.

Selected cities and suburbs, population growth 1990-2000

Source: Census

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

AllHouseholds

Married - nochildren

Married - withchildren

Other Family- no children

Other Family- with children

Nonfamily

Central City

Suburbs

Every household type grew at faster rates in the suburbsthan in cities

Population growth,1990-2000

Source: Frey, 2003

From 1980 to 2000 the states with the highest rates of rural land loss were concentrated in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Loss in develop-able rural land, 1980-2000

Source: Theobald, 2005

<2%

2-10%

10-20%

>20%

Active adult retirement communities

Source: Rosenbloom, 2005

In some areas in the Southwest, the elderly are becoming disproportionately represented on the suburban fringe.

Phoenix

City resurgence

Uneven growth

Job sprawl

Geography of poverty

Racial diversity

7%

23% 44%

24%

WhiteBlackHispanicAsianMulti-racial

In aggregate, the racial makeup of the 100 largest cities has shifted. The top hundred cities are now majority minority

Share of population by race and ethnicity,2000

Source: Census

51%

46%

39%

55%

50%

33%

Blacks Asians Hispanics

1990

2000

The percent of each racial/ethnic group living in the suburbs increased substantially.

Share of population by race and ethnicity,1990, 2000

Source: Census

Older, inner-ring “first” suburbs are now home to a large and growing number of foreign-born residents.

Foreign-born population, 1970-2000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

Primary Cities First Suburbs New er Suburbs

Source: Puentes and Warren, 2006

City resurgence

Uneven growth

Job sprawl

Geography of poverty

Racial diversity

Over half of all jobs in large metropolitan areas are located more than 10 miles outside of downtowns.

Share of jobs within 3-, 10-, and greater- than-10-mile radius of center, 2002

Source: Berube, undated

Outside 10 miles

Inside 3 miles

Between 3 and 10

miles

52%

17%

31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Chicago Denver Los Angeles San Fran

Central business district Edge cities Edgeless space

Share of metropolitan office space (SQ FT), 1999

In many metros, an exit ramp economy dominates office development.

Source: Lang, 2003

City resurgence

Uneven growth

Job sprawl

Geography of poverty

Racial diversity

Most of America’s poor live in large metropolitan suburbs.But residents of large cities are twice as likely to be poor.

Below-poverty population by location, 2005

Estimates are roughly +/-0.5 % pts.

Source: Berube and Kneebone, 2006

18.4

9.4

16.7

14.0

Large Suburbs SmallerCities/Towns

Micropolitan/Rural Large Cities

Percentage of people in poverty, 2005

Source: Current Population Survey, 2002

9% 9%

19%

17%

Central City Suburbs

1990 2002

Poverty rates in central cities declined from 1990 to 2002, while poverty rates in the suburbs have increased slightly

Poverty rates for central cities and suburbs, 1990-2001

1990 2000

During the 1990s, the number of high-poverty neighborhoods in central cities dropped significantly.

In Chicago, the number of high poverty

tracts fell from 187 to 114.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1970 1980 1990 2000

While the number of high-poverty areas is dropping sharply in cities, it is increasing at an alarming rate in first suburbs.

Percent of census tracts in first suburbs exceeding specified poverty thresholds, 1970-2000

Tracts with 20% poverty rate

Source: Puentes and Warren, 2006

Tracts with 30% poverty rate

Tracts with 40% poverty rate

A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation

Four broad demographic megaFour broad demographic megaFour broad demographic mega---trendstrendstrends

IMPACTS ON THE NATION’S TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

Outline

Effect of those trends on metropolitan areasEffect of those trends on metropolitan areasEffect of those trends on metropolitan areas

1. What does the new urban resurgence mean for transportation?

Transit ridership is up, especially in cities where new rail lines have been constructed.

Non-recreation walking is up markedly, as is walking to school.

Downtowns with efficient, functioning transit systems are surging.

2. If metropolitan areas are decentralizing, what does this do to demand?

More cars. The number of vehicles per household is rising as people per household is falling.

More driving. Increases continue in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), gasoline consumed, and time behind the wheel.

Research shows the primary determinant of VMT is the degree of sprawl.

3. How will increasing diversity and aging in cities and suburbs affect transportation?

Immigrants are more likely to carpool. But their high levels of transit use decline over time.

The elderly are just as dependent on private cars for their mobility and take many fewer transit trips.

Proximity to transit appears to be a growing determinant, irrespective of race.

4. What does continued job sprawl do to commuting patterns?

Suburb-to-suburb commute still dominates. Two-thirds of the increase in flows during the 1990s was suburb-suburb.

Average commute times increased 14% in the 1990s.

Overall, driving alone was the only mode that increased its share. But regionally, transit use and carpooling increased in the West.

5. How does the changing geography of poverty affect job access?

Most low income workers live in inner cities and first suburbs, far from growing employment centers.

Traditional fixed-route public transit is ineffective against this spatial mismatch. Low income adults face long travel times.

Access to opportunities may be the most difficult for the suburban and rural poor without vehicles.

Built environment: By 2030 about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop will have been built after 2000. How that is done will have enormous transportation consequences and should provide policy makers a vital opportunity to reshape future development.

Household changes: Childless married-couple and single-person households will grow rapidly and account for nearly half of the net growth in households over the next ten years, but single persons will continue to be the fastest-growing household type. Thus, there appears to be an increasing demand for smaller housing units.

Continued diversity: Minorities are expected to account for 71 percent of household growth from 2006 to 2016, increasing from 63 percent from 1995 to 2005. This suggests a new multi-cultural approach to transportation policy.

Migration shifts: The Census Bureau estimates that Western and Southern states with a strong history of growth management—Florida, California, Washington—will account for the lion’s share of growth between 2000 and 2030.

Increasing elderly: By 2030 more than one in five Americans will be over the age of sixty-five, and one-in eleven will be over 85. Addressing the mobility needs of this segment of society will go a long way to solving transportation challenges in general.

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUTURE

www.brookings.edu/metro

rpuentes@brookings.edu

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Alan Berube and Elizabeth Kneebone, “Two Steps Back: City and Suburban Poverty Trends 1999-2005, (Washington: Brookings, 2006). Eugenie L. Birch, “Who Lives Downtown,” in Redefining Urban and Suburban America: Evidence from Census 2000, Volume III, A. Berube, B. Katz and R. Lang

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REFERENCES