the brazilian pre-salt challenges & opportunities...challenges and opportunities process plant...
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Offshore Brazil - FPSO Summit 2019
The Brazilian Pre-salt Challenges & Opportunities
Luiz Guilherme Santos
Dec 2019
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Agenda
• PPSA - Roles and Responsibilities• Pre-salt Case study• Challenges and Opportunities
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Roles & Responsibilities
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Oil & Gas Industry Best
practices
Audit & Monitoring
costs (CAPEX & OPEX)
Audit & Monitoring
Project Execution
Diligent action on
local Content fulfillment
E&P Projects develop. phases
evaluation
Obligations
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Pre-salt Case Study
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17 Production Sharing Agreements
14 Signed PSAs
3 PSAs to be signed in 2020
Timeframe: 2020-2032
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
Case study: PSAs Expected results
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Main premises
First oil date & Production curves from existing Development Plans (DP). Exploratory Projects (W/O DP), first oil estimated in 8 years from Contract signature with simulated Production curves using Oil in place, pre-salt exploratory success rate, average ramp-up time and declining production rate.
FPSO’s - Production Units capacity considered from 50.000 to 220.000 barrels/day depending on the size of reserves.
1 Producer Well for each 20.000 barrels of FPSO capacity. 1 Injector Well for each Oil Producer.1 Exploratory Well per Project.
CAPEX from the existing Development Plans (DP).Exploratory Projects (W/O DP), Costs estimated on in-house generated costs cash flows.The investments cash flows in 4 years, 3 years before 1st Oil and on the first production year.
Cost premises used:10% depreciation rateProfit oil percentage, cost recover limits and signature bonus from each specific project.Exchange rate: 1 USD to 4 Reais
Oil price of US$ 60/bblGas price of US$ 5/MMBtu
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
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Oil Production estimated in the 17 PSAs
Million barrel/day
Brazilian oil production
3,9 Millions barrels/day in 2032
2,92 millions barrel/day (Sept 19)
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
Fonte: ANP
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Government Expected volume to be commercialized
Variable in each Project
Minimum percentage:Sudoeste de TartarugaVerde : 10,01%
Maximum pecentage:Entorno de Sapinhoá: 80%
Government’s Profit Oil
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
Million barrel/day
1,22 Millions barrels/day in 2032
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Government Take
Amount paid to Federal, States and local Governments
1. Government Profit oil & gas Commercialization;
2. Royalties;
3. Others Taxes.
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
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Government Profit oil Commercialization
R$ 424 billions from 2020 to 2032
(Billions R$)
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Royalties
R$ 349 Billions from 2020 to 2032
Taxes
R$ 227 billions from 2020 to 2032
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
(Billions R$)
(Billions R$)
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42%
23%
35%
Government Take (2020-2032)
R$ 424 billions with Government Profit Oil Commercialization
R$ 227 billions with Taxes
R$ 349 billions with Royalties
R$ 1 trillions up to 2032
(Billions R$)
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
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R$ 560 billions from 2020 to 2032
R$ 196 billions
Production Platforms
R$ 168 billions
Subsea Systems
R$ 196 billions
Wells
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
CAPEX estimated (2020-2032)
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CAPEX Distribution
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
(Billions R$)
474 Wells
28 FPSOs
2500 km Subsea lines
474 WCT13,8
26,9
33,7
53,4
71,775,2
89,0 88,9
53,0
31,4
14,0
8,2
0,50 3 2 2 3 3 6 3 3 2 1 0 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Number of new FPSOsIn operation
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Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
Government profit Oil: 1,2 Millions barrels/day in 2032
Average production 3,9 Millions barrels/day in 2032
Oil & Gas Government Revenue of R$ 424 Billions
Government take ofR$ 1 Trillion
R$ 560 Billions invested in the IndustryOPEX as a upside!
Multiplier effect on the Jobs and Brazilians income
General impact of 17 PSAs from 2020 to 2032
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Challenges and Opportunities
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Challenges and Opportunities
Process Plant footprint optimization to face GOR increasing.
Subsea Process & Pumping to handle GOR increasing.
Lack of gas export infrastructure.
Offshore Oil & Gas Brazil Summit 2019
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Final Remarks
• The PSC’s are improving due to collaboration between PPSA & Operators
• Health, Safety & Environment as a key value to Pre salt Projects
• Gas management & Monetization as one of the biggest Pre salt opportunity