The Augustine Committee

Review of Human Spaceflight Plans Committee

Briefing to COMSTACOctober 29, 2009

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

Purpose of Committee (From OSTP Statement of Task)

• The purpose of this effort is to develop suitable options for consideration by the Administration regarding a human space flight architecture that would:– Expedite a new U.S. capability to support utilization of the International

Space Station– Support missions to the Moon and other destinations beyond low Earth

orbit (LEO)– Stimulate commercial space flight capability– Fit within the current budget profile for NASA exploration activities

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

Why have a human spaceflight program?Science? • human exploration can do phenomenal science, far more than robotic probes – at

far higher cost. So you get a LOT of science. • BUT: there are other science investments with more science/$$

International relations/national prestige? NO• Human space exploration projects the image of the country we want to be• International cooperation in space provides important benefits• BUT: while the benefits are real and significant, they don’t justify HSF and there

are other arenas which could provide similar benefitsMany other benefits of HSF, like technology – but again, if that particular benefit were the driver, would be other ways to get it. So … Why?

Why have a human spaceflight program?Science? • human exploration can do phenomenal science, far more than robotic probes – at

far higher cost. So you get a LOT of science. • BUT: there are other science investments with more science/$$

International relations/national prestige? NO• Human space exploration projects the image of the country we want to be• International cooperation in space provides important benefits• BUT: while the benefits are real and significant, they don’t justify HSF and there

are other arenas which could provide similar benefitsMany other benefits of HSF, like technology – but again, if that particular benefit were the driver, would be other ways to get it. So … Why?

“There was consensus among the subgroup that the underlying reason why we do human spaceflight is the extension of human civilization beyond Earth and that this will first occur on Mars• Luna is a potentially enabling resource outpost in that process and will serve

as a demonstrator of technologies and operational capabilities needed for Martian exploration and eventual permanent presence”

Starting Point

ISS

Moon

Mars

Flexible Path

High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee

Starting Point

ISS

Moon

Mars

ISS

Moon

Mars

Flexible Path

Flexible Path

High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee

Moon

MarsISS

Starting Point

ISS

Moon

Mars

ISS

Moon

Mars

Flexible Path

Flexible Path

Flexible Path

High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee

Moon

MarsISS

Starting Point

ISS

Moon

Mars

ISS

Moon

Mars

Flexible Path

Flexible Path

Flexible Path

Moon

MarsISS

MoonFlexible

Path

Flexible Path

High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee

$ CapsuleBooster

LanderSurface Systems

In space elements

Moon Flexible Path Time

$

Surface SystemsLander

CapsuleBooster

TimeMoon Flexible Path

In space elements

$ CapsuleBooster Lander

Surface SystemsIn space elements

Moon Flexible Path Time

Development and Ops Cost Phasing: Lunar vs. Flexible

DDT&E

DDT&E

DDT&E Plus Ops

Tanker Technology can be applied in two modes:• A single tanker is launched to orbit, autonomously docks with an Earth

Departure Stage (EDS), and transfers fuel• In a more advanced version, many tankers dock with a depot in orbit and fill it.

Then the EDS docks and fuels from the depot.• Either mode can be used to top off or completely fill an EDS

Advantages:• Increased deliver mass to target for give size booster and EDS• May allow smaller booster requirements

Disadvantages:• Additional launches and more complex on orbit operations required• Cryogenic fluid management and transfer technology neededIn-space refueling: The ability to add fuel to an Earth-departure stage, either from an in-space docking with a tanker or from a depot, is of significant potential benefit to the in-space transportation system beyond LEO. The development of in-space refueling also enables the development of a commercial market for fuel delivery to orbit.

In- Space Propellant Storage & Transfer

Depot

Commercial Crew Service to LEO• We included in several scenarios the

development of a commercially provided service for crew launch to Low Earth Orbit

• Competition open to all commercials, large and small

• The development of a human-rated, demonstrated high-reliability rocket is probably more challenging than the development of a capsule. NASA should develop a backup of GFE of an human rated variant of an existing high reliability 8-10 mt class launcher (e.g. Atlas V 402)

• As further insurance, heavy lifters should be developed that are human ratable (but not necessarily human rated) , in the event the commercial system fail to appear

The Safety Dance“Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure” M. Twain• Limitations and uses of PRA• Evolution of PRA and demonstrated reliability• Role of infant mortality and flight rate• Launch contributions to LOC

– Improvements in booster make only small improvements in overall LOC– Any compromise to safety of other elements due to boosters is WRONG trade

“The Committee was unconvinced that enough is known about any of the potential high-reliability launcher-plus-capsule systems to distinguish their levels of safety in a meaningful way.”

Launch Vehicle Options

Ares I25 mt

Ares V161 mt

+

Ares V lite (dual)143 mt

Sidemount92-110 mt

Jupiter 241100-105 mt

or

EELV Super Heavy75mt