the asian century (a history)

8/2/2019 The Asian Century (a History)

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FINAL LECTURE IN SS2 FOR SY 2009/10

MBSP2010


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18581947

19902008The Sepoy Rebellion

is defeated.

The Chinese lose theOpium War.

The Japanese sign

the Harris Treaty.

India becomes

independent.

The Peoples

Republic of China is

born (1949).

Japan adopts a post-

war constitution.

India undertakes

economic reforms.

The development ofShanghai begins.

Terrorists claim

164 lives in

Mumbai.

China hosts the

Olympics.


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OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION

I. Forces that Shaped the 20th CenturyA. The Rise of Nations

B. Interdependence

C. Flattening of the World

II. The Rise of Asia: The Dragon and the Elephant

III. 1990 to 2010 (and beyond): Challenges and

Opportunities in the 21st century


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I

THE FORCES THAT SHAPED THE20TH CENTURY


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FORCE 1: THE RISE OF NATIONS


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FORCE 1: THE RISE OF NATIONS

Historical patterns:

1. The Great Liberation refers to a wave of

decolonization and emergence of newly

independent nation states.

2. The Cold War rivalry between the US and the USSR

encouraged new states as the two superpowers

sought new allies.

3. The paradox of colonialism argues that while the

imperial powers granted independence, they left

the country unable to be independent.


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FORCE 2: INTERDEPENDENCE

Question: What is globalization?

Answer: Princess Diana's death

Question: How come?

Answer:

An English princess with an

Egyptian boyfriend crashes in a

French tunnel, driving a

German car with a

Dutch engine, driven by a

Belgian who was high on

Scottish whiskey, followed closely byItalian Paparazzi, on

Japanese motorcycles, treated by an

American doctor, using

Brazilian medicines!

And this is sent to you by a

Canadian, usingBill Gates' technology which

he got from the Japanese.

And you are probably reading this on

one of the IBM clones that use

Philippine-made chips, and

Korean made monitors,

assembled by Bangladeshi

workers in a Singapore plant,

transported by lorries driven by Indians,

hijacked by Indonesians and finallysold to you by a Chinese!

That's Globalization!


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FORCE 2: INTERDEPENDENCE

What problems in the world

are caused by at least two

states coming into contact

with each other?

What solutions require

the collaboration of two

or more states working

with each other?


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FORCE 3: FLATTENING OF THE WORLD

Arjun Appadurai, in 1989

wrote about the five scapes

that define global interaction.

1. Ethnoscapes2. Technoscapes

3. Finanscapes

4. Mediascapes5. Ideoscapes


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TECHNOSCAPES


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FINANSCAPES


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MEDIASCAPES


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IDEOSCAPES


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II

THE DRAGON AND

THE ELEPHANT


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THE TECTONIC PLATE METAPHOR

This section deals with the parallel

histories of China and India from the

end of the Age of Imperialism to

independence, and to their early

struggles as independent and sovereign

nation states.

Liken them to the tectonic plates that

shift beneath the earth, defining land

areas and splitting oceans. The impact

of China and India is just as powerful

and profound.

Shifts in one or the other can affect the

surrounding regions and countries

greatly, and that is something we will

see as we head into the 21st century.


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18581947

19902008The Sepoy Rebellion

is defeated.

The Chinese lose the

Opium War.

The Japanese sign

the Harris Treaty.

India becomes

independent.

The Peoples

Republic of China isborn (1949).

Japan adopts a post-

war constitution.

India undertakes

economic reforms.

The development of

Shanghai begins.

China hosts the

Olympics.

Terrorists claim164 lives in

Mumbai.


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We begin our story with China and India at a weak and

disadvantaged position. China has just been splintered into

spheres of influence, and India has just been put under officialcontrol of the British crown. Things are bound to get worse

before they get better.


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THREE CRUSHING BLOWS TO CHINA

Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95

The Taiping

Rebellion of 1850-

64 (led by Hong

Xiuquan)

The Opium Wars of 1839 and 1856


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SUN YAT SEN (Sun Zhongshan) is

often called the father of Chinese

nationalism.

He spoke of the 3 principles of

the people: Peoples Nationalism,

Peoples Sovereignty, Peoples

Livelihood.

He co-founded the Kuomintang

(KMT, Nationalist Peoples Party)

and served as its first leader.

He led a revolution in 1911 and

forced the Emperor to leave the

throne by February 1912.

THE DYNASTIC CYCLE ENDS


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A RED SOLUTION

During the May 4th Movement

of 1919, Marxist (socialist)

ideas gained popularity.

In a small meeting in 1921

attended by 53 men (including

a passionate man named MaoZedong), the Communist

Party of China was born.

A fierce rivalry between the KMTand the Communist followed after

an attempted purge in 1927.

Mao fled to the countryside.


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In 1934, starting at around 100,000, they traveled for 6,000 miles in 368 days, fighting 15

major battles and 300 skirmishes. Only 15,000 survived.


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THE EAST IS RED

1931: Japan invaded Manchuria; they engaged the Chinese in open

warfare by 1937.1945: The surrender of the Japanese left the KMT and Communists

fighting for control of China.

October 1, 1949:

The Peoples

Republic of China

is established.


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MEANWHILE IN INDIA

The Sepoy Rebellion is defeated.

In 1876, Queen Victoria proclaims herself Empress of India.

India is placed under the direct rule of the British crown, with all its pros and cons.


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UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

Thomas Babington Macaulay encouraged the rise

of western-educated Indians, thinking that they

would bolster British power.

We must at present do our best to form

a class who may be interpreters between

us and the millions whom we govern; aclass of persons, Indian in blood and

color, but English in taste, in opinions, in

morals, and in intellect.

But quite the opposite happened.

The Indian National Congress was first organized in 1885;

The Muslim League soon followed in 1906.


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THE GREAT SOUL


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The British held a monopoly oversalt, a necessity for Indians.

Gandhis march signaled the

loudest proudest against British

rule.


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AT THE STROKE OF MIDNIGHT

On 15 August 1947, India won its

Independence

at a price. Pakistan was to be a

separate country.


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China and India tremble, and the entire Asian continent shifts. A

new communist regime rises in China, and India finally wins its

independence but at a brutal price. What follows next is thestory of their struggles as new nations in a changing world.


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BACK IN CHINA, A NEW BEGINNING

What was life like back in Communist China? Here are some scenarios.

FIRST: You (and everyone else) wont be allowed to own

private property. No cellphones. No MP3 players. No

laptops or personal computer. No reason for people to be

jealous of one another. No conflict. No class distinction.

SECOND: In the classroom, you just repeat what teacher

says. You cannot question or comment. Just repeat.

Repeat. Repeat. You also have to memorize all theCommunist hymns and write long essays about how

great your leader is!


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THE COMMUNIST LIFE

THIRD: The dormers will be just at home in Communist

China because everyone lives in a dorm now! Your dad,

mom, brother, sister, grandparents and even your dog all

live in one place together with other families.

We call this the commune and everything is sharedfood, housing, bath, clothes, everything!

During the day especially during THE GREAT LEAP

FORWARD the adults work in the fields while thechildren are in school and sing praises for Chairman Mao!


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FOURTH: If you have high IQ or consider yourself an

artist, better start hiding. Intellectuals and artists are

enemies of Communist China.

During the CULTURAL REVOLUTION (1960s), Mao went

after those who are stuck to the old ways (specificallyConfucian scholars) of China. He burned books (sounds

familiar?) and sent the scholars to work in the fields and

factories, criticize themselves (you have to write long

essays about how wrong you are) and be reeducated bythe peasants.

THE COMMUNIST LIFE


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LEGACY

Mao Zedong left a dual legacy: founder and

communist hero, and a grand failure as a

social engineer.

Ironically, for all that is written about him, it

is not Mao who will be credited for todays

China. It will be Deng Xiaoping.


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MEANWHILE IN SOUTH ASIA

An artificial border was

drawn between India andPakistan, prompting mass

migrations and violence on

both sides.

Gandhi fasts to halt the violence, but it his assassination in

January 30, 1948 that would help end the worst of the violence.


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S O SOC S


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LIMITS OF SOCIALISM

Indian economic policy after independence was a direct

response to the British rule which they saw as exploitative in

nature.

Government had control over every single economic activity.

Elaborate licenses had to be secured to put up businesses in

India from 1947 to 1990.

Impact? The low annual growth rate of the economy of India

stagnated around 3.5% from 1950s to 1980s. At the same time,

Pakistan grew by 5%, Indonesia by 9%, Thailand by 9%, South

Korea by 10% and in Taiwan by 12%.

Investment was monopolized by the government. The License

Rajwas prone to corruption.


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Our story ends here. China and India are poised to rise as new

leaders in the region in the coming century. The rest of the

continent has much to learn from their experience. But as newopportunities come so do challenges. The story continues.


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III

1990 to 2010 (and beyond):CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

IN THE 21ST

CENTURY


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THE EAST ASIA FORUM BEGINS NEXT WEEK

As a class, you have the following goals:

Using the format of Model UN, stage an East Asia

Regional Forum headed by the ASEAN and its major

partners, China, South Korea, and Japan.

Arrive at resolutions on three issue areas:

1. Peace, Order and Stability

2. Climate Change3. Poverty Alleviation and Human Development


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MY GOALS AS YOUR TEACHER

By letting you go through the motions of Model UN, it is

my hope that you

1. Comprehend the processes of making decisions on a

regional and global scale.

2. Appreciate the complexity of issues, and how

national interests may or may not coincide with

global interests.

3. Give yourself something to think about when you

touch on history, politics, and economics in the

future.


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PEACE, ORDER & SECURITY

CLIMATE CHANGE &

RESOURCE MANAGEMENTPOVERTY ALLEVIATION &

HUMAN DEVELOPMENTBorder conflicts

Terrorism

Ongoing wars

Insurgencies and secessionistmovements

Organized crime and syndicates

Illegal trade and black markets

Maritime piracy

Global warming

Food security

Biodiversity

Deforestation

Illegal mining

Foreign ownership of natural

resources

Investment in green technology

Education

Reproductive health

Government inefficiency

Dwindling life expectancies

Human rights

Plight of refugees

Human capital flight (brain drain)

THE MAJOR ISSUES


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III.A



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1931

Japanese invade

Manchuria

7 July 1937

Japanese invade

Nanking

7 Dec 1941

Japanese bomb

Pearl Harbor2 Jan 1942

Japanese

capture Manila

6 Aug 1945

The atomicbomb drops on

Hiroshima


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1931

Japanese invade

Manchuria

7 July 1937

Japanese invade

Nanking

7 Dec 1941

Japanese bomb

Pearl Harbor2 Jan 1942

Japanese

capture Manila

6 Aug 1945

The atomicbomb drops on

Hiroshima


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POLARITY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

British Empire at its height Unipolar world order

Age of Imperialism Multipolar world order

Cold War Bipolar world order

Post-Cold War Nonpolar world order


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A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE WEST

OCC S


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This is a view of the West, particularly the United States,

as 'a mass of soulless, decadent, money-grubbing,

rootless, faithless, unfeeling parasites'

This views sees the West in four characterizations:

the West prefers the sinful city to the virtuous countryside;

the West destroys heroism and replaces it with trading;

the West thinks only of matter and not of spirit;

the West worships evil

OCCIDENTALISM

FUNDAMENTALISM


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From Karen Armstrong, The Battle for God

Muslims are downtrodden because they have

allowed foreign ideologies such as capitalism and

Marxism to displace the cultural values,philosophy, and way of life that has once served

as the foundation of a great civilization; Islam will

be able to develop its own modern civilizationonly be rejecting Western laws and customs and

returning society completely to the Sharia.

FUNDAMENTALISM

VIOLENCE AGAINST THE WEST


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Occidentalism hints at why there exists violence

against the West, particularly the United States ofAmerica.

Occidentalism is not just a matter of culture orideology, but of politics and economics as well.

Terrorism can be seen as a

reaction to colonial times. This

remains a powerful challenge

for the 21st century.

VIOLENCE AGAINST THE WEST


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III.B

CLIMATE CHANGE


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I don't really consider this a political issue,

I consider it to be a moral issue. - Al Gore

THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


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It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his

salary depends upon his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair via Al Gore

Moving towards a lasting solution to climate changerequires tremendous political will.

On the part of the individual, understanding the climate

change threat requires tremendous sociologicalimagination.



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DEVELOPING ECONOMIES vs

DEVELOPED ECONOMIES

The current climate crisis is seen mostly as the product

of the developed economies.

Why should developing countries pay the price for

something that isnt their fault? (And hence, when they

pay, they may lose out on the advantages they need todevelop.)


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III.C

POVERTY ALLEVIATION ANDHUMAN DEVELOPMENT

RETHINKING POVERTY


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As presented in The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs (2005)

RETHINKING POVERTY

RETHINKING POVERTY


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RETHINKING POVERTY

RETHINKING POVERTY


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RETHINKING POVERTY

RETHINKING POVERTY


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Conclusions about modern economic growth:

All regions were poor in 1820

All regions experienced economic progress

Todays rich regions experienced by the far the

greatest economic progress

In investigating the gap between rich and poor then, the

question becomes: Why do different parts of the world

grow at different rates?

RETHINKING POVERTY

RETHINKING POVERTY


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Why do different parts of the world grow at

different rates?Here are some possibilities.

1. Physical geography

2. Government failure3. Cultural barriers

4. Geopolitics

5. Lack of innovation

6. Demographic trap

7. Poverty trap

RETHINKING POVERTY

THE MAJOR ISSUES


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CLIMATE CHANGE &RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

POVERTY ALLEVIATION &

HUMAN DEVELOPMENTBorder conflicts

Terrorism

Ongoing wars

Insurgencies and secessionistmovements

Organized crime and syndicates

Illegal trade and black markets

Maritime piracy

Global warming

Food security

Biodiversity

DeforestationIllegal mining

Foreign ownership of natural

resources

Investment in green technology

Education

Reproductive health

Government inefficiency

Dwindling life expectanciesHuman rights

Plight of refugees

Human capital flight (brain drain)

THE MAJOR ISSUES

With that, we conclude.

Good luck in your Model East Asia Forum!

As the first ever batch you will literally be making history

the asian century (a history)

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