ASlA'5 ECONOMIC RESURGENCE IS SET TO CONTINUE20,000 I income per person U55

i15,000 i

Income per person USS . 20,000

I .0 15,000

i10,000 i

we— 10,000

5,000 3 1990 : 5,000l 1970 ®i 1913 1950,, era.”3.. - .i.-.‘! _ _ _

Note: The bubble area reflects the size of GDP for Asia's economies, adjusted for purchasing power parity in2011 prices (Maddison 2010, IMF 2012c, The Conference Board 2012 and Treasury projections).'Chart 1: Asia’s economic resurgence is set to continue'sourced from the Australia in the Asian Century White Paper

from escalating strategic competitionmight emerge quite unpredictably”.

The Prime Minister's recentlecture is more upbeat — noting thatwe are geographically closer than ourcompetitors “to the fastest growingand most economically dynamicregion ofthe world" and concentrat-ing on the opportunities to servicethe massive new Asian middle class.

She explained her review would“ask and answerquestions”, however, she also stressedthat the extraordinary Asian growth“will change the social and economic,strategic and environmental orderofour world".

What might anAsian Century entail?

The Asian Centurywill mean morethan a mere rebalancing of powerbetween the United States and China:the China-Japan contest could turnout to be more important in shapingAsia’s strategic future, and there isthe China—lndia relationship as well.

The stronger Indonesia, whichwe are already beginning to see, willalso want greater influence in thewider Asian region, and not merelyAssociation of Southeast AsianNations (ASEAN).

Exactlyhowregionalarchitecturedevelops will depend on the unfold-ing of these inter—state dynamics,but we can be fairly certain thatan ‘Asian Century’ will not meanthe strengthening of ‘Asia-Pacific’institutions.

Asia—Pacific Economic Coop-eration (APEC) lost prestige in the

2 fl Australia's Engagement with Asia

1997 Asian economic crisis, and thefollowing years saw the growth of theAsia—exclusive ASEAN + 3 process,which brings together the ten ASEANcountries with China, Japan andSouth Korea.

The East Asia Summit (EAS),which commenced in 2005, is afurther ‘Asian’ initiative - andAustralia’s Coalition governmentdeserves credit for taking Australiainto this meeting (at a time whenthe United States was not a member)instead of merely defending APEC’scredentials.

What we do not know today iswhether United States membership(beginning this year) will lift theimportance of the EAS or lead to aneven greater role for the all-AsianASEAN + 3.

Assuming that even within theEAS the ‘Asian Century’ will entaila reduced United States influence,Australian diplomacy will need tobuild coalitions with one group oranother of Asian states.

How we engageThe phrase “engaging with Asia"

— used so often in the past, especiallyby those concerned that Australiangovernments were too narrowlyfocused on the United States — is nowredundant. The issue is where andhow we engage more closely.

This will be a challenge for govern-ment — but also for an Australiancommunity which still tends not tothink beyond the United States all-iance when contemplatingAust:ralia’sinternational positioning.

If we are not to be a “lonelycountry” — and this would be an un-comfortable fate — Australians willalso need to be prudent in handlingour neighbours.

Abusing Malaysia, for instance,does not help to promote the typeof regional cooperation we need tohandle refugee flows.

The ‘Asian Century’ invokes morethan a shift in strategic and eco-nomic power. Will English remainthe dominant language ofinter-stateconversation? Will the democracyand ‘human rights’ discourse loselegitimacy when not endorsed byUnited States dominance?

International relations analystshave already begun to wonderwhether the regional order in Asiacould beincreasinglyshaped byolder,Asian hierarchical models rathertraditional national sovereignty.

Business culture is another areathat may demand adjustment —not, as some fear, by a retreat intoamorality but perhaps by a greaterwillingness to take account ofAsianviewpoints.

Ifwe are to seek more investmentopportunities in Asia - and so farAustralians have focused on trade,which is less demanding — there willbe a need for sociological as well aseconomic knowledge.

Change without changeThe ‘Asian Century’ does not call

for a reinvention of the Australiancommunity — we would be wrong tofear an assault on our national valuesand institutions.

But it is necessary to assess ournational skill-set and our mentalpreparation. What we have now isan Australian community in whichalmost no one learns an Asian lang-uage, and the study ofAsian societiesand histories is virtually ignored inour schools. This cannot be a goodbasis for the task ahead.

Anthony Milner is Basham Pro-fessor of Asian History, School ofCulture, History and Language at theAustralian National University.

©2011 Anthony Milner. Posted 10 October 201 1.The Conversation | hnp://theconversationedu.au

lS§L_lQS in