Discovery, Insight, Intelligence

1:30 pm Welcome and Introductions1. Collecting anomalies - the foundation of inference

- What to collect - defining the characteristics of useful anomalies.- How to observe anomalies while scanning the business environment.

2. Group work sessions – In groups of 3 to 5 we will investigate a selection of current Williams themes in depth.

3 – 3.20 pm Afternoon Tea/Coffee1. Weaving – Groups practice pulling the pieces together and drawing

inferences- Finding the context of change – careful use of historical perspective- The use of symbols- The use of research (uncovering the unintended message)

2. Using discoveries3. Questions/Discussion

4:30 pm Adjourn

Using anomalies and surprises as a filter for information gathering

Inferring from a limited data set and recognizing patterns of change

Monitoring, testing and strengthening hypotheses using targeted research

Understanding symbolic power

Using discovery in business and investment decisions

Anomalies Symbols Color and Myth Inferences Anecdotes

“It is not what you look at, but rather what you see.”Henry David Thoreau

Danger and Opportunity The “new” has no experts Old knowledge can be a hindrance Minimize the data so decisions are more

accurate

Superlatives – biggest, most, largest, fastest, slowest, etc.

Surprises – growth more than 20%, outpacing a leader, unintended messages

Firsts – the beginning of change.

Lies and deceit – strengthen significance

Incongruencies – “The empty parking lot” and “The dog that did not bark”

Myth as public dreams

Color choices Negative impression

– i.e. not what we have, but rather what we would like to have

Led by anomaly and symbol Observations in one instance can be

extrapolated to a larger cultural significance Important to stimulate creative response to

an inference Emerge from discussion and relationships

Making hypotheses beyond cause/effect relationships

Inclusive of an awareness of the relative danger/opportunity

Need a broad perspective, yet a specific lens (limited data set)

Early warning, predictive, but not timed Corollaries often surface with time

Decisions and Awareness

•More information does not always make better decisions•Inferential thinking is a means to see through the clutter of information overload•Try to use only a few pieces of information to make key decisions•Base decisions on inferences rather than history alone•History is useful in the development of the “gut feeling”

•Inferential training helps professionals gain sufficient confidence to achieve accuracy ahead of the curve

•Inference provides a information needed to monitor the business environment

Intelligence Unintended messages

looking for an insight Design An insight looking for

options Choice Selecting an option and

taking action Review Monitoring the process for

added value

Questions?

ContactDavid Waechter

828-234-1594

dwaechter@cccti.edu