the 65th annual reliability & maintainability symposium ...€¦ · an excursion tour of the...

MAIN PROGRAMThe 65th Annual Reliability & Maintainability Symposium

January 28–31, 2019 • Disney's Contemporary Resort, Lake Buena Vista, Florida

2019

2

2019

R&M In The Second Machine Age – The Challenge of Cyber Physical Systems

I’m honored to be General Chair for the 65th Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. RAMS® is a collaboration between nine professional societies who have a passion for reliability, availability, maintainability, and/or safety (RAMS®). RAMS® is completely operated by volunteers from the sponsoring societies. These volunteers on the Management Committee have worked hard all year to produce a symposium that will provide a unique experience across the entire RAMS® body of knowledge. Attendees have the opportunity to learn through tutorials, technical papers, expert panel discussions, keynote and banquet speakers, and interaction and networking with other professionals.

RAMS® is an extremely effective and cost efficient way to educate yourself and your associates in reliability, maintainability and product integrity. The variety and depth of the program will satisfy the range of attendees from novice to seasoned expert. Tutorials present a unique “basic to advanced” forum, and qualify for Continuing Education Units (CEUs), as well as our RAMS® Tutorial Certificate Program. Paper sessions complement the tutorials, with emphasis on demonstrating effective practical applications and theory. The Panel sessions feature company engineers and high level government, corporate and academic experts providing their insight and experience. The Exhibits program features sources of tools and expertise carefully selected to be consistent with the content of the technical program.

This year’s theme is “R&M In The Second Machine Age – The Challenge of Cyber Physical Systems”. This theme was selected because the evolving world of autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, new levels of complexity in human-machine teaming and automation making more and more life and death decisions intensifies the critical role of RAMS® disciplines. The response to the Call for Papers and Tutorials was exceptional. The Program and Tutorial Committees have done an outstanding job of selecting those papers and tutorials that are highly relevant to the needs of RAMS® attendees, and formed them into an outstanding program. For spouses accompanying attendees, we have a great spouse program for those who find just being in Disney World isn’t enough. This program includes a unique Disney Chef cooking experience, breakfast with a Disney character, and an excursion tour of the Morse Museum, which houses the world’s most comprehensive Tiffany Glass collection.

Our Keynote speaker, Paul Ballew is Vice President and Global Chief Data and Analytics officer, Ford Motor Company. I owe a special thanks to fellow RAMS® management committee member, and my former colleague when I was at Ford Motor Company, Vasiliy Krivtsov, for inviting him. Paul’s Keynote Topic addresses Reliability Aspects of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles. Paul’s current and past experience will bring a great perspective to this very real and relevant topic, the heart of this year’s symposium theme.

Our Banquet speaker, former Astronaut Scott D. Altman, Captain, USN, Ret., will take us on a journey of his amazing career from flying small planes to Top Gun to Commanding a Space Shuttle. He will talk about how the stage is being set for our next great adventure as we send humans to Mars, and really do “Reach for the Stars”. I owe a special thanks to former RAMS® General Chair (2016) Dan Deans for arranging for Captain Altman to participate in RAMS®.

We are indeed especially excited about the location of RAMS® 2019 – at Walt Disney World® Resort, Disney’s Contemporary Resort. This iconic location has a world class convention center that will enhance the experience of the symposium, and the location within Walt Disney World® Resort speaks for itself. After attending symposium sessions one can hop on the Monorail to the Magic Kingdom® Park, or continue on using WDW transportation to visit any of the other theme parks and attractions.

I look forward to greeting you at RAMS® 2019!

Charles W. Plotkin General Chair, RAMS® 2019 [email protected]

Charles W. Plotkin

2019 GENERAL CHAIR’S MESSAGE

3

2019

RAMS® 2019 Hours of Operation

RAMS® Registration Desk Hours of Operation: Exhibits Hours of Operation:Monday, January 28, 2018 7:00am - 5:00pm Monday, January 28, 2018 5:00pm - 7:00pmTuesday, January 29 2018 7:00am - 5:00pm Tuesday, January 29, 2018 9:00am - 5:00pmWednesday, January 30, 2018 8:00am - 4:00pm Wednesday, January 30, 2018 9:00am - 1:00pm

RAMS® Exhibition and Registration

Every exhibitor has been carefully selected with improved reliability, maintainability, quality and productivity in mind. All exhibits will be in the Grand A Room. Coffee breaks will be held in the exhibit area. The Exhibition is a valuable component of the Symposium as it provides information on products and services which can help you do your job more efficiently. Even if you plan to attend every technical session, there will still be plenty of time to visit the exhibits between sessions and during lunch breaks.

BQRCincinnati Sub-Zero DFR Software CompanyDFR SolutionsESPEC North AmericaFulton Findings LLCHBM Prenscia

IRISS Inc.Isograph, Inc.Item Software USANokomis Inc.PHM TechnologyPolestar Technical ServicesQuanterion Solutions

Reliability Engineering AcademyRelyence CorporationSAS Institute/JMP DivisionSystecon North AmericaUniversity of Maryland

Exhibitors List

Colloquium Session and iPad RaffleThis year, we will again hold the Colloquium Session for papers that have been exclusively selected to be presented based on content and expected level of one-on one interaction with attendees and R&M experts. The Colloquium Session also includes the papers from authors with multiple accepted papers. This session offers a more dynamic opportunity to interact with the author directly and is one of our most popular sessions with the iPad giveaways. Lunch will be served. Three Apple iPad Air 2s (32 GB) will be raffled off. One raffle ticket may be obtained at the end of each of the Thursday sessions (maximum of two tickets). Attendees must be present at the Colloquium Session area to be eligible to win an iPad.

Content of this session is fluid as the Program Committee is endeavoring to include as many papers as possible within the scheduled paper sessions. Real time updates to this session, as well as the entire program, will be available in the RAMS® App. For more information, contact Sean Carter or any paper session VC.

Job Posting BoardRAMS® is again sponsoring a job posting board for openings in the assurance disciplines. Any business interested in describing its employment opportunities to the world’s premier gathering of assurance professionals is encouraged to post directly on the bulletin boards, which will be available to all Symposium attendees. This is an extraordinary opportunity to get your employment message out as well as a unique resource for job seekers.

IEEE Continuing Education Units (CEUs) You can earn CEUs by attending our Tutorials and Workshops at no extra charge (0.1 CEU per hour). Simply use a CEU completion form included with your registration packet. Complete the form according to the instructions, and return it to the registration desk at the conclusion of the Symposium. Your CEU certificate will be e-mailed to you.

RAMS® Tutorial Certificate Program Formalize your educational experience with the two-level RAMS® Tutorial Certificate Program. The first level requires the completion of five core concept tutorials; the second level requires an additional 10 tutorials, taken across at least two symposia, based on your own profession needs and interests. Due to the timeliness of the material, the Certificate Program must be completed within four years of the first core tutorial. Upon completion of the program, you will receive a RAMS® certificate, a letter of completion, and a list of tutorials attended. You can enroll in the Certificate Program through the on-line registration system.

Spouses’ Hospitality ProgramMon. 01/28 Kitchen Catering Experience Disney's Contemporary Resort Afternoon Tue. 01/29 Breakfast with Disney Characters Disney's Contemporary Resort, Grand Republic A 7:30 a.m. - 9:30 a.m. Wed. 01/30 The Morse Museum Disney's Contemporary Resort Regular museum hours

Reservations required at least two weeks in advance. For more information, please contact Jess Leszczynski via email: [email protected].

REGISTRATION & INFORMATIONat the RAMS® Registration Desk

4

2019

Time #A B C D E

DateFantasia Ballroom N-Q

Fantasia Ballroom K-M

Sorcerer's Apprentice 1



8:30 - 10:00 General Chair's Welcome & Keynote – Location: Fantasia Ballroom H

Mon

day

Janu

ary

28

10:15 - 12:15 1 An Introduction to Probability Models in Reliability & Maintainability (C)

Reliability Analysis of Field Data

Safety & Risk Driven Design Optimization (PS)

Digital System Dependability & Security (PS)

Life Data Analysis & Reliability Prediction (PS)

13:30 - 15:30 2Dynamic Reliability and Artificial Intelligence

Reliability Modeling in Application (PS)

Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (PS)

Designing in Reliability (PS)

15:45 - 17:45 3An Introduction to R&M Management (C)

Reliability and Availability Modeling in Practice

Vehicle Health Monitoring: Air, Sea, and Land (PN)

Economic Models, Warranty Data & Management (PS)

Applications of PHM in Maintenance Planning (PS)

17:00-19:00 Exhibitor's Reception – Location: Fantasia Ballroom G

8:00 - 10:00 5

Introduction to Life Data Analysis (C)

Probability Models of Maintenance Processes

R&M Business Process Improvement (PS)

Advanced Accelerated Life Test Techniques (PS)

Reliability Modeling in Theory (PS)

Tues

day

Janu

ary

29

10:15 - 12:15 6

Data Mining & Machine Learning for Fault Detection Diagnosis Prognosis

Maintenance Methodology (PS)

Management Practices for Maintenance and Logistics (PS)

Life Data Analysis & Optimization (PS)

13:30 - 15:30 7Introduction to Fault Tree Analysis (C)

Introduction to Software Reliability Models

Reliability in the Age of IoT (PN)

Targeted Accelerated Life Test Applications (PS)

Physical Reliability Models (PS)

15:45 - 17:45 8

Understanding and Applying the Fundamentals of FMEA (C)

Analysis of Large Repairable System Reliability Data Sets

Fault Tree Analysis (PS)

PHM & Remaining Life Prediction (PS)

Reliability Driven Design Optimization (PS)

8:00 - 10:00 9

Systems and Infrastructure Asset Management Modelling

Designing for Availability in Systems, and Systems of Systems

PHM for Electrical Systems (PS)

Applied Maintenance Models (PS)

R&M Applications in Aerospace (PS)

Wed

nesd

ay

Janu

ary

30

10:15 - 12:15 10 Advisory Board Panel – Location: Fantasia Ballroom H

13:30 - 15:30 11 Pitfalls of Accelerated Testing

Introduction to Fractional Failure and Its Application in Reliability

Reliability Modeling in Management (PS)

Risk Analysis & Management (PS)

R&M Applications in Defense (PS)

15:45 - 17:45 12Practical Guide to Reliability Growth Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis and Design

DoD Panel: R&M Engineering Approaches and Challenges in Software, Autonomy, AI and Cyber (PN)

Availability (PS)

Real World Application of Reliability Growth Analysis (PS)

18:30 - 21:30 General Reception & Banquet – Location: Ballroom of the Americas

8:00 - 10:00 13 Better Accelerated Testing

Introduction to Human Reliability Analysis

Accelerated Life Test Planning & Optimization (PS)

System Safety Analysis (PS)

Reliability Growth Analysis (PS)

Thur

sday

Ja

nuar

y 31

10:15 - 12:15 14 Introduction to System Safety

Risk Management Principles and Techniques

Accelerated Life Test: Factory to Field (PS)

R&M Applications in Process Improvement (PS)

Prognostics & Health Management (PS)

12:15 - 14:15 Colloquium Session and iPad Drawing – Location: Fantasia Ballroom J

Legend (C) = Core Tutorial (PN) = Panel (PS) = Paper Session

RAMS® 2019 PROGRAM MATRIX

5

2019

PAUL BALLEWVice President and Global Chief Data and Analytics Officer

Ford Motor Company

Paul Ballew is vice president and global chief data and analytics officer, Ford Motor Company. He leads Ford's global data and analytics teams for the enterprise. In this role, he is responsible for establishing and growing the company's industry-leading data and analytics operations that is driving significant business value throughout the enterprise.

Before joining Ford, Ballew held the following positions: chief data, insight & analytics officer at Dun & Bradstreet; senior vice president for customer insight and analytics at Nationwide; executive director for global market & industry analysis for General Motors Corporation; partner at J.D Power and Associates serving as the company's senior advisor on industry conditions and corporate strategies; and research officer and senior economist specializing on the automotive industry with the Federal Reserve.

Ballew has a Bachelor of Economics and a Master of Economics from the University of Detroit.

His Keynote presentation addresses Reliability Aspects of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles. Paul's current and past experience will bring a great perspective to this very real and relevant topic, the heart of this year's symposium theme:

“Reliability Aspects of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles”

KEYNOTE SPEAKER

6

2019

SCOTT D. ALTMANCaptain, USN, Retired

PERSONAL DATA: Born August 15, 1959 in Lincoln, Illinois. Married to the former Jill Shannon Loomer of Tucson, Arizona. They have three children. Hometown is Pekin, Illinois, where his parents, Fred and Sharon Altman, currently reside.

EDUCATION: Graduated from Pekin Community High School, Pekin, Illinois in 1977; received Bachelor of Science degree in Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering from the University of Illinois in May 1981, and a Master of Science degree in Aeronautical Engineering from the Naval Postgraduate School in June 1990.

ORGANIZATIONS: University of Illinois Alumni Association, Sigma Chi Alumni Association, life member Association of Naval Aviation and Military Order of the World Wars.

SPECIAL HONORS: Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit, Distinguished Flying Cross, Defense Meritorious Service Medal, Navy Strike/Flight Air Medal, Navy Commendation Medal, Navy Achievement Medal, 1987 Award winner for Outstanding Achievement in Tactical Aviation as selected by the Association of Naval Aviation. NASA awards include the Distinguished Service Medal (NASA’s highest form of recognition), the Outstanding Leadership Medal, the Exceptional Service Medal and four Space Flight Medals.

EXPERIENCE: Commissioned as an Ensign in the United States Navy in August 1981, received his Navy wings of gold in February 1983. Based at NAS Miramar, Altman completed two cruises flying the F-14A Tomcat. In August 1987, he was selected for the Navy Test Pilot School and graduated with Test Pilot School Class 97 in June 1990. Deploying in 1992 with VF-31 and the new F-14D, he was awarded the Navy Air Medal for his role as a strike leader flying over Southern Iraq. Following return from this deployment, he was selected for the astronaut program. He has logged over 7000 flight hours in more than 40 types of aircraft.

NASA EXPERIENCE: Altman reported to the Johnson Space Center in March 1995 as an astronaut candidate. He was the pilot on STS-90 (1998) and STS-106 (2000), and the mission commander on STS-109 (2002) and STS-125 (2009). Following two years as Shuttle Branch Chief for the Astronaut Office and lead for the Cockpit Avionics Upgrade, in 2005 he was assigned on temporary duty to NASA Headquarters as Deputy Director, Requirements Division of the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate. On returning to Houston, and following STS-125, he served as the Chief of the Exploration Branch of the Astronaut Office. A veteran of four space flights, Altman has logged over 51 days in space.

SPACE FLIGHT EXPERIENCE: STS-90 Neurolab (April 17 to May 3, 1998). During the 16-day Spacelab flight the seven person crew aboard Space Shuttle Columbia served as both experiment subjects and operators for 26 individual life science experiments focusing on the effects of microgravity on the brain and nervous system.

STS-106 Atlantis (September 8-20, 2000). During the 12-day mission, the crew successfully prepared the International Space Station for the arrival of the first permanent crew.

STS-109 Columbia (March 1-12, 2002). STS-109 was the fourth Hubble Space Telescope (HST) servicing mission. The STS-109 crew successfully upgraded the Hubble Space Telescope during a total of 5 EVAs in 5 consecutive days. STS-109 culminated in a night landing at Kennedy Space Center, Florida.

STS-125 Atlantis (May 11-24, 2009) was the fifth and final Hubble servicing mission. The 19 year old telescope spent seven days in the Shuttle’s cargo bay undergoing an overhaul conducted over five back to back spacewalks. The crew overcame frozen bolts, stripped screws, and stuck handrails to complete all mission objectives. The STS-125 mission traveled over 5.3 million miles in 197 Earth orbits, and ended with a day landing at Edwards AFB following two days of wave-offs due to poor weather in Florida.

POST NASA EXPERIENCE Altman left NASA in September 2010 to join ASRC Federal Holding Company (AFHC) in Greenbelt, Maryland as Vice President for Strategic Planning. AFHC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Arctic Slope Regional Corporation (ASRC), one of 13 native‐owned regional corporations established in Alaska as a result of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (ANCSA). In August 2012 he became Vice President of Business Development for the newly formed Engineering and Aerospace Solutions (EAS) Group, and was responsible for leading Business Development activities. In July 2015 he was promoted to Chief Operating Officer for EAS, leading operational efforts providing Systems Engineering and full mission life cycle services to a variety of Federal agencies, including NASA, NOAA, the US Air Force, US Army and the US Navy. Following a major re-organization in January 2017, he now has P&L responsibilities as Senior VP for Civil Programs for all of ASRC Federal’s NASA and NOAA contracts, with over 20 contracts across the United States.

BANQUET SPEAKER

7

2019

Monday • January 28, 2019

■ General Chair’s Welcome and Keynote Fantasia Ballroom HMonday, 8:30 AM – 10:10 AM

Keynote Speaker:PAUL BALLEW

Vice President and Global Chief Data and Analytics Officer

Ford Motor Company

“Reliability Aspects of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles”

■ Session 01/02A (Core) An Introduction to Probability Models in Reliability & Maintainability Fantasia Ballroom JMonday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM • 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Kellie Schneider University of Dayton (United States)This tutorial provides attendees with basic coverage of the traditional, fundamental probability models used to describe, improve, and optimize system reliability and maintainability. This will include the discussion of some basic concepts from probability and distribution theory.

■ Session 01B Reliability Analysis of Field Data Fantasia Ballroom K-MMonday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vasiliy Krivtsov Ford Motor Company (United States)This tutorial includes a presentation of the key maintenance questions along with a description of the probability analysis needed to analyze the various policies and the various applications.

■ Session 01C Safety & Risk Driven Design Optimization Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Monday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vice Chair: Dan Burrows ASQ Reliability Division (United States)Moderator: Melvin Downes ASQ–Electronics & Communications (United States)This session addresses how classic, advanced, and associated Safety and Risk Analysis methods are used to drive design optimization.01C1 Functional Safety Oriented Integrated Design for Avionics System Resources: Multilayer

Weighted Network ModelJiayun Chue Beihang University, School of Reliability and Systems Engineering (China)Jian Jiao; Ting-di ZhaoThis paper proposes a functional-safety-oriented integrated design method for avionics system modular resources, which is intended to implement the resources integration design based on a traditional distributed or federated avionics systems with function.01C2 Reliability Engineering for High-Value Low-Volume Complex EquipmentLin Zhu Lam Research Corporation (United States)Xiaoqiang Jin, Lam Research Corporation; Sassan Roham, Lam Research Corporation; Christopher Burkhart, Lam Research CorporationIn this paper, we will focus on how to systematically conduct reliability engineering work on high-value low volume complex products.01C3 An Approach of Creating Component Design Specification for Safety-Related Software in RailwayYin Chen Bombardier Transportation (Sweeden)Sven Linder, Bombardier Transportation; Jonas Wigstein, Bombardier TransportationThis paper presents a practical approach of creating component design specification for safety-related software (SIL 1 to SIL 4) used in railway, which could save time and cost for software development project, while still compliant with EN 5128:2011/IEC.01C4 Linking Design Reviews with FMEA to Quickly Mitigate the Risk of Change - Design Review

Based on Failure ModesBill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Linking Design Reviews with FMEA to Quickly Mitigate the Risk of Change: Design Review Based on Failure Modes (DRBFM) is a process focused on quickly addressing product and process changes and a perfect risk analysis process to support configuration change.

TUTORIALS, SESSIONS, WORKSHOPS

8

2019

■ Session 01D Digital System Dependability & Security Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Monday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vice Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum Operations (United States)Moderator: Vladimir Crk UTS Aeropsace Systems (United States)In systems engineering, dependability is a measure of a system's availability, reliability, and its maintainability, and maintenance support performance, and, in some cases, other characteristics such as durability, safety and security. In software engineering, dependability is the ability to provide services that can defensibly be trusted within a time-period. This also encompasses mechanisms designed to increase and maintain the dependability of a system or software.01D1 Hybrid Attack and Fault Trees for Early Security and Safety Assessment of Complex SystemsNikolaos Papakonstantinou VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland) Joonas Linnosmaa, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland; Jarmo Alanen, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland; Bryan O'Halloran, Naval Postgraduate School; Douglas Van Bossuyt; AhmeA methodology is proposed for early security and safety assessment based on the generation of hybrid attack and fault trees from an interdisciplinary dependency model of a complex system.01D2 Discovering Software Reliability via Microservices and DevOpsRichard Eng (United States)Software engineers adopt some software reliability engineering principles via Microservice architectures and DevOps processes.01D3 A Novel Feature Selection Method for Software Fault Prediction ModelCan Cui (China)Bin Liu; Guoqi LiWe provide a new feature selection method for data preprocessing of software fault prediction model. And the prediction results validate the feature selection idea is good and feasible.01D4 A Quantitative Method for Measuring Hybrid Uncertainty Information in Cyber Physical SystemsLei Zhang School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University (China)Jianguo Zhang, Science and Technology on Reliability and Environment Engineering Laboratory (China)The reliability of CPS is directly affected by various uncertainties. In this paper, a quantification method that considers both randomness and fuzziness is proposed. This method can be used to evaluate the safety and stability of CPS that contain hybrid.

■ Session 01E Life Data Analysis & Reliability Prediction Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Monday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vice Chair: Dan Burrows ASQ Reliability Division (United States)Moderator: Joel Nachlas Virginia Tech (United States)This session addresses how classic and advanced Life Data Analysis methods are used to achieve more useful and meaningful Reliability Analysis and Predictions.01E1 Effect of Competing Failure Modes on the System Reliability EstimationKevin Lucan University of Stuttgart (Germany)Martin Dazer, University of Stuttgart; Kim Hintz; Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine ComponentsInvestigation of the influence due to competing failure modes on the system reliability estimation, considering early, random and wear out failure modes and the total sample size n.01E2 Better Confidence Limits for System ReliabilityWayne Nelson Wayne Nelson Statistical Consulting (United States)This paper presents new general methodology for statistical reliability demonstration testing of a complex system, called a system of systems (SoS).01E3 Reliability Assessment of Multi-State Systems By Multi-Sources of Imprecise Reliability DataYu Liu University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (China)Tangfan Xiahou; Boyuan ZhangIn this paper, a constrained optimization model is put forth to assess the system reliability by fusing multi-source of imprecise reliability data.01E4 Scatter Factor Analysis for Sample Fatigue Life Based on Three Parameters

Birnbaum-Saunders DistributionZiguang Ji (China)The life scatter factors of a new model of three-parameter B-S distribution were derived and then the superiority of this model was verified.

TUTORIALS, SESSIONS, WORKSHOPS (cont.)

9

2019

■ Session 02B Dynamic Reliability and Artificial Intelligence Fantasia Ballroom K-MMonday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vitali Volovoi Consultant (United States)This tutorial provides an overview of current state of the art in system risk, reliability, and maintenance modeling using dynamic methods. The target audience of the tutorial is engineers who are familiar with the basic concepts of static (Boolean-based) system reliability modeling (RBD and/or FT) and are curious about the role of dynamic tools in the modern “big” data-driven environment.

■ Session 02C Reliability Modeling in Application Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Monday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Ming Li US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (United States)Moderator: Yuan (Ehan) Wei Varian Medical Systems (United States)This session presents RAMS® modeling to various real-life applications.02C1 Multi-Time Scale Thermal Simulation-Assisted Lifetime Prediction of Power MOSFET in LED DriverHao Niu Harbin Institute of Technology (China)Guofu Zhai; Shujuan Wang, Harbin Institute of Technology; Xuerong Ye; Rao FuA multi-time scale thermal simulation method is proposed in this paper for the lifetime prediction of power MOSFETs in the LED driver.02C2 Adapting FIDES for Reliability Predictions Aimed at Space ApplicationsStephanie Bourbouse Airbus Defence & Space (France)This session presents RAMS® modeling in various real-life applications.02C3 A Reliability Model with Dependent Competing Risks Considering Negative Maintenance EffectDa Li Beihang University (China)Lin Ma, Beihang University; Wang NaichaoWe proposed a reliability modeling with dependent competing risks based on Degradation-Threshold-Shock model, and analyzed the negative effect of maintenance by M-Shock Process.02C4 Reliability reporting and failure forecasting of consumable subsystems

in a consumer-maintained productRonald Markham Amway (United States)Cathy Majestic, Amway (United States)The problem we are addressing concerns data availability for consumable goods consumed in a user maintained durable product. In order to model and report two solutions to this problem are presented.

■ Session 02D Failure Modes & Effects Analysis Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Monday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: Roger Abbott Raytheon Missile Systems (United States)This session addresses the potential confusion and challenges of implementing a value added Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA-FMECA) process.02D1 Product and Process Risk Analysis and the Impact on Product Safety, Quality, and ReliabilityBill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Six Process Steps (phases) to eliminate complexity and achieve requirements of any FMEA process or standard.02D2 Streamlined & Results Oriented Adaptation Of The DFMEA ProcessRussell Watts (United States)An adapted version of the DFMEA process that quickly and efficiently addresses all identified causes of failure. The output is a sortable and easily tracked list of recommended actions.02D3 Expeditious Component-Level FMECA Modeling for Design OptimizationJustin Brown Raytheon/ Southern Methodist University (United States)Ian Campbell, RaytheonRobust FMECA for Design provides the capability to perform a FMECA with very little input to identify design weaknesses early in the system design process.02D4 Using the Modern Software Design FMEA To Improve Software DesignRichard Harpster Harpco Systems (United States)Paper will demonstrate how the modern Software Design FMEA can be used to reduce software development time while improving the quality of the software design.


10

2019

■ Session 02E Designing in Reliability Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Monday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Troy Schwartz Accenture (United States)Moderator: Walter Tomczykowsk

Tomczykowski Group LLC (United States)

Integration of reliability early in design is critical to the success of any project. This session explores project management process, leveraging DFR through phase gates, incorporation of condition monitoring and human reliability considerations.

02E1 Incorporating Condition Monitoring into a Multi-Faceted Decision EnvironmenterScott Koshman (Canada)Fae AzhariA decision framework relating equipment health monitoring to multi-tier decision making for multi-function naval platforms.02E2 Integrating Design for Reliability (DFR) into the Project Management ProcessesYangyang Yu General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) (United States)T.Jason Dukes, GA-ASI; Blair Schmidt, General Atomics - ASIMost reliability management papers talk about the Reliability Management during the lifecycle of products. This paper discusses Reliability Management from a different angle: Reliability Management in the Project Lifecycle.02E3 A Model for Evaluating Qualitative Risk Assessment and Human Reliability DataJD Solomon Jacobs (United States)This paper expands the discussion of scales-measurement controversy, provides a model for treating ordinal-type survey data that is typically generated in qualitative risk assessments and human reliability analysis, and discusses the lessons learned from an application of the model on a major public infrastructure assessment program.02E4 Improved Implementation of DFR Through Phase GatesAdam Bahret Apex Ridge Reliability (United States)Incorporating a methodology for accessing partial risk of changes to demonstrated reliability confidences is a significant step forward for program efficiency.

■ Session 03A ■ An Introduction to R&M Management Fantasia Ballroom JMonday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Fred Schenkelberg FMS Reliability (United States)The purpose of this tutorial is to introduce an outline to guide the management of an effective reliability or maintainability program.

■ Session 03B Reliability and Availability Modeling in Practice Fantasia Ballroom K-MMonday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Kishor Trivedi Duke University (United States)This tutorial will present a number of different methods for probabilistic reliability and availability analysis, together with several real-life large case studies

■ Session 03C Vehicle Health Monitoring: Air, Sea, and Land Sorcerer's Apprentice 1

Monday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PMVice Chair: Sean Carter NASA Johnson Space Center (United States)Moderator: Aron Brall MAB Consultants (United States)Panelists:Jim McLeish DFR Solutions (United States)Vasiliy Krivtsov Ford Motor Company (Unites States)Logen Johnson SAE (United States)The emergence of connected vehicles technology creates game changing opportunities for vehicle service and maintenance. The ability to capture the operational and environmental data from each vehicle in real time allows to accurately and continuously predict the amount of wear on the entire fleet. This is available in land vehicles (cars, trucks, and rail) and aircraft (both commercial and military), and is emerging in ships (both commercial and military). This session will present commonality and differences between the various vehicles and opportunities for cross pollination.

■ Session 03D Economic Models, Warranty Data Analysis and Management Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Monday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Vice Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum Operations (United States)Moderator: Feng-Bin Sun Tesla Inc. (United States)This session covers new failure rate models, economic models, warranty analysis, and risk management.


11

2019

03D1 Heading to Models of Failure Rate Evolution, with Respect to Environmental and Usage Conditions in Time

Marcel Chevalier (France)In this study, we show how digitization, while providing a huge lot of data on electrical assets during their operational life in real-time conditions on customer plants, allows to get information on all environmental and usage conditions for products in field situation, together with data on observed failures.03D2 Evaluation of the Robustness of Statistical Software for Warranty AnalysisKe Zhao Exponent Inc. (United States)Rose Ray, Exponent Inc.; Vijay Seraf, Exponent Inc; Paul Taylor, Exponent Inc.This paper evaluates robustness of statistical software for warranty analysis with special focus on warranty claims after warranty expires.03D3 Managing Value Added Complexity to Optimize Reliability of Product Configuration OfferingsMathew Thomas CNH Industrial (United States)This paper develops a comprehensive methodology to manage value added complexity in a Product Development organization with the objective of maximizing the value to the customer taking into consideration the reliability of the offerings. The Value Added Product Configuration Management Strategy (VAPCMS) comprehensively analyzes the factors that go into building reliability and integrates them using an optimization model.03D4 Risk Evaluation and Management of Mobile X-ray DevicesErdem Yanar Aselsan Inc. (Turkey)Numan Kemal Saydam, Aselsan Inc.Risk analysis and management of medical systems aims at finding and avoiding possible failure and dangerous scenarios.

■ Session 03E Applications of PHM in Maintenance Planning Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Monday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Vice Chair: Masoud Pourali KimiaPower PLLC (United States)Moderator: Juergen Herrmann JSH Consulting (Germany)This session provides insights to applications of prognostics and health management in maintenance practices.

03E1 Using Artificial Intelligence for Block Maintenance of Pavement Segments with Similar ProfileSoumaya Yacout École Polytechnique of Montreal (Canada)Artificial Intelligence techniques are used to plan predictive maintenance of roads' segments.03E2 Maintenance Effectiveness Estimation from Observable Covariate Data

with Applications to Railway IndustrySharareh Taghipour Ryerson University (Canada)Vladimir Babishin, Ryerson UniversityThe effects of preventive and corrective maintenance for railway point machines are modelled as multiplicative on both time and either health indicator, or raw observed covariates. We obtain maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of covariate coefficient(s), Weibull shape and scale parameters, as well as the preventive and corrective maintenance effect estimates on time and covariate(s).03E3 Risk-Based Maintenance Methodology Applying IoT to Electrical FacilitiesRyuichi Sekita Fukuyama University (Japan)This paper points out the problem in electrical facilities maintenance and discuss the solution way of new risk based maintenance methodology.03E4 Optimization of Multi-Level Inspection Strategy for Multi-State SystemsYu Liu University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (China)Tangfan Xiahou; Boyuan ZhangTaking account of the imperfection of observations, a new metric is proposed to quantify the effectiveness of various multi-level inspection strategies in terms of revealing the health status of a multi-state system. A constrained optimization model is developed to identify the optimal multi-level inspection strategy by maximizing the proposed metric under limited inspection resources.

■ Exhibitors Reception Fantasia Ballroom GMonday, 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM


12

2019

Tuesday • January 29, 2019

■ Session 05/06A Introduction to Life Data Analysis Fantasia Ballroom JTuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Larry Leemis Department of Mathematics, The College of William & Mary (United States)This tutorial presents the probability models and associated statistical methods that are required to quantify the probability distribution of the lifetime of an item.

■ Session 05B Introduction to Life Data Analysis Fantasia Ballroom K-MTuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Joel Nachlas Virginia Tech (United States)This tutorial provides a mathematically advanced survey of maintenance planning models. Both stationary and non-stationary cases will be discussed.

■ Session 05C R&M Business Process Improvement Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Tuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vice Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum Operations (United States)Moderator: Fred Schenkelberg FMS Reliability (United States)This session will discuss the use of business analytics to optimize business practices for best product performance and continuous improvement.05C1 A Business Analytics Framework for Structuring 3D Printing Deployment DecisionsDavid Peterson (United States)Vitali Volovoi, Consultant; Ericson Davis, LMI; Jeremy Eckhause, Rand CorporationCurrent 3D printing research offers managers only general guidance and the path towards making 3D printing a supply chain and distribution network reality is uncertain. This paper provides an analytics framework to help businesses structure their 3D printing deployment decisions and reduce this uncertainty.05C2 A Risk-Informed Approach to Reliability Requirements TailoringJohn Klohoker Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California Institute of Technology (United States)This abstract introduces the JPL RIDM approach to tailoring reliability requirements based on mission classification and other project characteristics. Using this approach, JPL Reliability personnel engage with project personnel to develop project‐specific requirements intelligently, trading risk for other project constraints (e.g., budget, schedule).05C3 Optimizing EAM & APM Supported by ISO 55001 ImplementationDeplian Maherdianta Pupuk Kalimantan Timur (Indonesia)Ericcson Ramadhan, Pupuk Kalimantan Timur; Ghafar Aditya Edwantiar, Pupuk Kalimantan TimurOptimizing EAM and APM supported by ISO 55001 to improve maintenance business process.05C4 Using NHPP to Evaluate Quality Management System Reliability GrowthElinaldo Araujo Embraco (Brazil)This paper describes controlled experiments and results comparing failure mechanisms precipitated in HALT with Thermal Cycling and Electro-Dynamic Vibration stressing.

■ Session 05D Advanced Accelerated Life Test Techniques Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Tuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vice Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: TBAThis session reviews the strengths, weaknesses, and implementation strategy of performing Advanced Accelerated Life Test Techniques.

05D1 Experiments Comparing the Efficacy of HALT vs. Traditional Stress TestingNeill Doertenbach ESPEC North America Colorado Office (United States)Raphael Pihet, ESPEC Corp.; Takuya Hirata, ESPEC Corp.; Yuichi Aoki, ESPEC Corp.This paper describes controlled experiments and results comparing failure mechanisms precipitated in HALT with Thermal Cycling and Electro-Dynamic Vibration stressing.05D2 Evaluation Method for Accelerated Degradation Testing Considering Uncertainty

of Failure ThresholdTianji Zou Technology and Engineering Centre for Space Utilization & University of Chinese Academy of

Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China)In this paper, an evaluation method of accelerated degradation testing is proposed, which considers the uncertainty of failure threshold.


13

2019

05D3 Extension of a Reliability Demonstration Test for Intelligent Completion ToolPankaj Shrivastava Halliburton (United States)Aswin BalasubramanianThis paper presents a methodical approach of reliability demonstration test design at multiple stress levels with more than one accelerating variable for time and cost savings in product development.05D4 Reliability Evaluation Under Accelerated Degradation Testing with Recovery

Capability ConsideredQingpei Hu Chinese Academy of Sciences (China)The accelerated degradation modeling and analysis is targeted for the data collected from the ideal measurement situations, and in practice measurement is taken in different approaches. Two different approaches are studied, on-line and off-line, for effect on the reliability evaluation.

■ Session 05E Reliability Modeling in Theory Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Tuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vice Chair: Ming Li US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (United States)Moderator: Jian Guo Lam Research (United States)This session presents innovative modeling techniques that expands the state of the art of the RAMS® theory.

05E1 A New Metric for Structural Reliability Considering Aleatory and Epistemic UncertaintyLei Zhang School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University (China)Jianguo Zhang, Science and Technology on Reliability and Environment Engineering LaboratoryIn this paper, a probability-uncertainty hybrid quantification model that considers both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is proposed by using the uncertainty theory and a new reliability index and reliability evaluation method of considering mixed uncertainty is proposed.05E2 Declaration of Inter-functional Protocol for FRAMMiha Mraz Faculty of Computer and Information science, University of Ljubljana (Slovenia)Miha Moškon; Matic Tkalec; Nikolaj ZimicThe integration of socio-technical systems into the mission-critical tasks has become crucial within the last two decades. The increasing complexity of these systems from the technical as well as from the applicatory aspect has caused the methods for assessing their reliability to lag behind the development of the socio-technical systems.05E3 Multi-Function System ReliabilityJiliang Zhang Apple Inc. (United States)For systems with multi-function or features, the system structure, reliability, and reliability importance for full, partial, and simple function are defined, discussed, and calculated with one example.05E4 PDEL: A New Language Aimed to Overcome Regular Restrictions in RAMS® Modeling

and ForecastingJorge Granada Personal (Colombia)PDEL is a new language aimed to overcome traditional restrictions in modeling, simulation and performance forecasting of complex systems.

■ Session 06B Data Mining & Machine Learning for Fault Detection Diagnosis Prognosis

Fantasia Ballroom K-M

Tuesday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PMEnrico Zio CentraleSupelec and Politecnico di Milano (France)The purpose of this tutorial is to teach attendees how to develop and implement models, methods, algorithms, and tools for the Prognostics & Health Management (PHM) of industrial components and systems.

■ Session 06C Maintenance Methodology Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Tuesday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vice Chair: Annette Skowronska

US Army TARDEC (United States)

Moderator: TBAThis session focuses on Maintenance Decision models based on surveillance and other factors.

06C1 Introduction to Critical Asset Surveillance TechnologiesRudy Wodrich IRISS Inc. (United States)Critical Asset Surveillance using Condition Based Maintenance technologies can help eliminate one of the largest sources of downtime in critical equipment - Maintenance Induced Failures due to human error.


14

2019

06C2 Structured Maintenance Policies for Multi-level Preventive Maintenance with Complex EffectsYisha Xiang Lamar University (United States)Yue Shi, Lamar University; Tongdan Jin, Texas State UniversityThis paper addresses a very realistic, yet complex maintenance decision problem arising from engineering systems that involve with multiple levels of maintenance actions. The question then becomes which action should be chosen and applied at each inspection epoch so as to minimize the total expected cost rate.06C3 Maintenance Decision Method in the Middle Life of Power Generation Operation PeriodHerry Nugraha PT PLN (Persero) (Indonesia)Ali Yusni, PT Dirgantara Indonesia; Bagus Setiawan Iskandar, PT PLN (Persero)A method which addressing long-term equipment reliability risk to stakeholders to manage aging degradation and obsolescence of important systems combined by Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis is proposed.06C4 Maintenance Decision Model of Coal Handling Systems on the Operation of Low Rank

Coal Fired Steam Power PlantMiftahul Jannah PT PJB (Indonesia)Herry Nugraha, PT PLN (Persero)This paper discusses the maintenance decision model of coal handling systems on the operation of Low Rank Coal Fired Steam Power Plant (LR-CFSPP) using Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) Risk Mitigation-Based.

■ Session 06D Management Practices for Maintenance and Logistics Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Tuesday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM



Moderator: TBAThis session will focus on operations, cost effectiveness, and job shop efficiency for mature maintenance programs.

06D1 Energy-Efficient Optimization of Flexible Job Shop Scheduling and Preventive MaintenanceSharareh Taghipour Ryerson University (Canada)Nasim Mirahmadi , Ryerson UniversityWe will propose a model for energy-efficient optimization of flexible job shop scheduling and preventive maintenance. We will find the optimal set of operations and their sequence on production machines, as well as the decision on switching the machines.06D2 A Methodology for Aircraft Reliability, Maintainability, Availability and Cost ManagementDavid Jackson Lockheed Martin Aeronautics (United States)Ryann Ocampo, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Specialty Engineering; David Jackson, Lockheed Martin AeronauticsLeverage the use of MCDM methods to create a methodology that would effectively manage aircraft fleet.06D3 Location Optimization for Spare Parts Depots Under (S,T) Inventory PolicyBohan Lu (China)Meilin Wen, Beihang University; Yi YangCentralized allocation of spare parts can improve system support capacity and reduce support cost. This paper will make optimal study on depot location based on the (S,T) inventory policy.06D4 Reliability and Parts Management Programs in the Second Machine AgeAntonio Scappaticci Acquisition Logistics Engineering (United States)Steve Rogers, Acquisition Logistics Engineering; Stephen Brunner, Acquisition Logistics Engineering; Elizabeth Schwartz, Acquisition Logistics EngineeringThis paper discusses the development of part selection criteria guidelines that direct the selection of parts by the design team. It reviews system and component considerations that should be included in a Parts Management Program.

■ Session 06E Life Data Analysis & Optimization Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Tuesday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vice Chair: Dan Burrows ASQ Reliability Division (United States)Moderator: Mark White NASA Jet Propulsion Lab/ California Institute of Technology (United States)This session addresses how classic and advanced Life Data Analysis methods are used to drive deeper understanding and optimization of reliability.

06E1 Weibull Analysis and Zero-time failures. What are your data analysis options?Andre Kleyner Aptiv (United States)David Elmore, AptivThis paper presents several different ways of dealing with zero-time failures when performing life data (Weibull) analysis.


15

2019

06E2 First and Beyond First Time Field Failure Analysis for Effective Reliability & Service PlanningSarath Jayatilleka Daikin Applied Americas (United States)This paper provides elaborated methods and analysis with field examples in order to highlight the benefits that can be incorporated to design for reliability and serviceability that in turn result in increased equipment availability.06E3 Estimation of Component Failure Rates based on Survival Data for AssembliesAndreas Joanni Siemens AG (Germany)An approach is presented to estimate (bounds on) failure rates for components, based on failure data collected on assembly level and known information regarding how the assemblies are composed of the respective components.06E4 A Robust Tool for Estimating Field Reliability Using Aggregate Failure Time DataHaitao Liao University of Arkansas (United States)Ed Pohl, University of Arkansas; Samira Karimi, University of ArkansasA robust tool based on phase-type distribution is proposed to analyze aggregate failure time data for field reliability estimation.

■ Session 07A Introduction to Fault Trees Fantasia Ballroom JTuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

David Nelson KBRwyle, Engineering Business Unit, Sustainment Engineering Division (United States)The objective of the tutorial is to provide an understanding of FTA and examples of application. The instructor will explain the basic rules and mathematics used in FTA and illustrate the explanations with examples.

■ Session 07B Introduction to Software Reliability Models Fantasia Ballroom K-MTuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Philip Mongan (United States)Lance Fiondella University of Massachusetts (United States)This tutorial will present a series of examples illustrating the many different life data applications in product reliability and materials evaluation, providing background on the problem and presentation of the methods that were used and conclusions and lessons learned from each analysis.

■ Session 07C Reliability in the Age of Internet of Things (IoT) Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Tuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Sean Carter NASA Johnson Space Center (United States)Moderator: Vitali Volovoy ConsultantPanelists:Louis Hogge Engineering Flight Chief, 416 SCMS/GUEA US Air Force (United States)William Meeker Professor of Statistics at Iowa State University (United States)Pierre Dersin RAM director at Alstom Transport (Unites States)The panel is focused on the intersection of modern AI technologies and RAMS®. RAMS® is becoming a critical part of the emerging Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem. This directly impacts RAMS® operational and business processes. The issues of applying modern Data Science and AI technologies to RAMS® domain are explored along with the challenges of utilizing the knowledge accumulated by the RAMS® community over the years in the new environment. The panel includes representatives of industry, DOD, and academia.

■ Session 07D Targeted Accelerated Life Test Applications Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Tuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Ming Li US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (United States)Moderator: Fei Li Apple Inc (United States)Accelerated Life Testing provides valuable information for designing robust systems in challenging environments. This session provides success stories in the elimination of field failures due to understanding and mitigating fatigue mechanisms. New and innovative approaches for assessing reliability based on stress acceleration factors are presented.

07D1 Statistical Design and Analysis of Fatigue TestsKe Zhao Exponent Inc. (United States)Duane Steffey, Exponent Inc.The remaining life of a battery used in the electrical components in products supplied to the US Army was assessed through the use of highly accelerated step stressing and accelerated life testing techniques. The results provided B1 and B10 shelf life of the battery. 07D2 Accelerated Life Test Model by Time-Varying Dependence for Rotary Lip SealsChao Zhang Beihang University (China)Mileta M. Tomovic, Old Dominion University; Di Liu; Shaoping Wang; Lingfeng PanThe paper describes the steps for selecting the right life stress relationship when performing accelerated life test analysis for aluminum micro-channel heat exchangers. Life Data Analysis (LDA), Design of Experiments and Simulation are used to improve the knowledge when selecting the right opera-tional environment for life testing.


16

2019

07D3 ALT Model Development and Implementation for High Pressure Rotary ValvesKurt Banker Waters Corporation (United States)The paper illustrates a new methodology the generation multiple-sine-on-random accelerated vibration tests, tailored to the customer usage, that can be employed to assess the fatigue life of engine mounted components.07D4 Reliability Test Setup for Liquid Aluminum Electrolytic CapacitorsGarron Morris Rockwell Automation (United States)Xuechao Wang, Rockwell Automation; Rangarajan Tallam, Rockwell Automation; Anshul Shrivastava, Milwaukee ToolThis research is about the development of methodology to predict the acceleration factor for accelerated testing of Solar Photovoltaic modules using statis-tical technique.

■ Session 07E Physical Reliability Models Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Tuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Troy Schwartz Accenture (United States)Moderator: Walter Tomczykowski


Physics of failure modeling approaches provide R&M engineers with precise assessments of the effects of usage and environments on equipment life. This session provides new advances in early design analysis along with new approaches to integrating damage tolerance and physical models.

07E1 Incorporating Reliability into a Set-Based Design Tradespace Tool for Early Design AnalysisChristina Rinaudo US Army Corps of Engineers - Engineer Research and Development Center (United States)Randy Buchanan; Geetha Chary, AMSAA; David Mortin, AMSAA; Willie Brown, USACE - ERDCImplementing model-based engineering early in the design process and integrating physics-based design principles can provide large tradespaces for analysis of alternatives (AoA). This paper explores the integration of Physics-based Reliability (PBR) methodology, risk assessments, and other reliability growth tools into a web-based tradespace analytical tool to enable more informed assessments during Pre-Milestone A design tradespace analysis.07E2 An Intelligent Agent Modeling Method for System Reliability from Perspectives

of Failure MechanismsYaqiu Li (China)Qian Li; Guangze Pan; Chunhui Wang; Xiaobing LiThis paper presents a novel method of system reliability intelligent modeling considering the failure mechanism, for solving the problem of cross-scale reliability modeling expression, multi-failure mechanism interaction and uncertainty propagation description and measurement analysis.07E3 Reliability Assessment of Corroded metals under Axial Tensile Loading Using

Damage Tolerance AnalysisKabwe Mulenga City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong SAR)Min Xie, City University of Hong Kong; Chun-Qing Li, https://www.rmit.edu.au/The first passage reliability method has been applied for estimating the failure probability i.e. when the corrosion pit turns into a crack (crack initiation).07E4 Living System Negative Entropy Reliability, Old Trees and a Fifth Law

for Thermodynamics on Negative EntropyAlec Feinberg DFRSoftware (United States)In this paper we explore thermodynamic negative entropy reliability modeling of living systems which we find requires the addition of a Fifth law of Thermodynamics which we propose. One might say that in order to understand aging, perhaps we need to understand the opposite, order and growth to gain insight into physics of failure and non failure.

■ Session 08A Understanding and Applying the Fundamentals of FMEA Fantasia Ballroom JTuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Carl Carlson Carlson Reliability Consulting (United States)Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has the potential to be a powerful reliability tool to reduce product design and manufacturing risk in a cost-effective manner. Students who attend this tutorial will learn the fundamental concepts and procedure for effective FMEAs.

■ Session 08B Analysis of Large Repairable System Reliability Data Sets Fantasia Ballroom K-MTuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Xiao Liu Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Arkansas (United States)This tutorial discusses a statistical analysis approach for performing reliability analysis for a fleet of repairable systems with a large set of covariates (such as operating and environmental conditions monitored by sensors, system geo-locations, failure and repair history, and other system attributes). Case studies include water infrastructure, and maintenance of oil and gas wells.


17

2019

■ Session 08C Fault Tree Analysis Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Tuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Vice Chair: Troy Schwartz Accenture (United States)Moderator: Natesan Jambulingan

NASA (United States)

Fault tree analysis is a simple but powerful tool in the R&M tool bag. This session will explore new methods of competing failure analysis, cyber attack scenarios, model-based frameworks and resolving fault isolation ambiguities.

08C1 Competing Failure Analysis in Sequence-Dependent SystemsLiudong Xing University of Massachusetts Dartmouth (United States)Yujie Wang, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China; Lavanya Mandava, UMass DartmouthThis paper addresses sequence dependence and competing failures due to function dependence as well as correlations between them in the system reliability modeling and analysis.08C2 Fault-Tree Based Prevention Analysis of Cyber Attack Scenarios in a Nuclear Power PlantVaibhav Yadav Idaho National Laboratory (United States)Robert W Youngblood, Idaho National Laboratory; Katya L Le Blanc, Idaho National Laboratory; Jeremy Perschon, Idaho State University; Ryan Pitcher, Idaho State UniversityThis paper presents a fault-tree based formulation for a cyber-attack scenario in a water flow-loop comprised of flow controllers and pumps, controlled via manual controls, wired signals and WiFi signals that is susceptible to a cyber-attack.08C3 A Model-Based Framework for Analyzing the Safety of System ArchitecturesPanagiotis Manolios Northeastern University (United States)Kit Siu, GE Global Research; Michael Noorman; Hongwei LiaoWe introduce a compositional, model-based framework for modeling, visualizing and analyzing the safety of system architectures for safety-critical cyber-physical systems.08C4 Fault-Tree Based Prevention Analysis of Cyber Attack Scenarios in a Nuclear Power PlantAlpana Gangopadhyaya Northrop Grumman (United States)This paper presents a fault-tree based formulation for a cyber-attack scenario in a water flow-loop comprised of flow controllers and pumps, controlled via manual controls, wired signals and WiFi signals that is susceptible to a cyber-attack.

■ Session 08D PHM & Remaining Life Prediction Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Tuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Vice Chair: Masoud Pourali KimiaPower PLLC (United States)Moderator: Juergen Herrmann JSH Consulting (Germany)This session reviews how prognostics and health management can provide advanced warning of equipment failure.

08D1 RUL Prediction of Engineered Systems Leveraging Condition Monitoring Signals: A Deep Learning Perspective

Chenggeng Huang University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (China)Hongzhong Huang, ; Yan-Feng Li, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China; Xiang-Yu Li, University of Electronic Science and Technology of ChinaThis paper develops a novel prognostic method based on Bi-Directional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) network. Different from the deep convolutional neural networks (DCNN) and deep belief networks (DBN) based prognostic methods, the developed method can simultaneously model both sensors signals and operational conditions signals in a consolidated framework.08D2 A Response Surface Methodology Considering Uncertainty in Simulation-Based

Storage Performance PredictionYing Ding (China)A response surface methodology which considers uncertainty is put forward, and it helps to improve the storage performance prediction precision of elastic components.08D3 Predicting Remaining Useful Life Based on Instance-based LearningAmeneh Forouzandeh Shahraki

NDSU (United States)

Om Prakash Yadav, North Dakota State University; Arighna Roy; Ajay Pal Singh Rathore, Malaviya National Institute of Technology JaipurCondition-based maintenance (CBM) is an effective maintenance strategy that increases safety and reliability of the engineering systems. Prognostics, which is the basis of CBM, deals with predicting the future behavior and remaining useful life (RUL) of systems.08D4 An Overview of Deep Learning in Prognostics and Health ManagementLiangwei Zhang Dongguan University of Technology (China)Jing Lin, Luleå University of Techonology; Uday Kumar, ; Bin Liu; Zhicong Zhang, Dongguan University of TechnologyDeep learning has great ability to model complex data, and it can automate the process of feature engineering in an unsupervised manner. This survey reviews applications of fault detection, diagnosis and prognosis using deep learning and further points out some new trends and potential opportunities in the field.


18

2019

■ Session 08E Reliability Driven Design Optimization Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Tuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Vice Chair: Dan Burrows ASQ Reliability Division (United States)Moderator: Thomas Elwel Ford Motor Company (United States)This session addresses how classic, advanced, and associated Design for Reliability methods are used to drive design optimization.

08E1 Design Optimization Through Blended Reliability, Six Sigma and Analytics ToolsRanjeet Patil (India)Balaji ThiagarajanIn this presentation, demonstrated effective use of integrated vital DFR, DFSS and Analytics tools/methodologies for design optimization to deliver robust reliable products.08E2 Reducing Product Time to Market Based on Shorting the Design CycleWensheng Peng (China)Introduces design control technology designed to reduce the design cycle process and reduce development costs by detecting errors in the electronic design and supporting parameter calculations for reliability analysis.08E3 Reliability Evaluation for the C4ISR Communication System via Propagation ModelYizhak Bot BQR (Israel)Israel Weinstock, Elbit, Elisra EW and Sigint; Uri Tolchin, Elisra EW and SigintThis paper proposes a new method for evaluating the reliability of wireless communication based on the analysis of path loss models for frequencies from 0.5 to 30 GHz.08E4 Optimal One-Dimensional Free-Replacement Warranty Period for AGM BatteriesZhaojun Li Western New England University (United States)Jian Guo, Lam ResearchThe purpose of this paper is to study how suitable the existing 12-month one-dimensional free-replacement warranty policy for the Absorbent Glass Mat (AGM) batteries that are commonly used in the automobile industry.

Wednesday • January 30, 2019

■ Session 09A Systems and Infrastructure Asset Management Modeling Fantasia Ballroom JWednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

John Andrews (United Kingdom)This tutorial covers the failure/deterioration processes experienced by systems and infrastructure and how these can be controlled through the use of maintenance and renewal. Models are developed to support the decision-making process of defining what to do, and when to do it, if a cost-effective asset management strategy is to be achieved.

■ Session 09B Designing for Availability in Systems, and Systems of Systems Fantasia Ballroom K-MWednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Pierre Dersin ALSTOM Digital Mobility (France)The goal of this tutorial is to describe methods for modeling and achieving system operational availability cost-effectively by acting at the design level and at the maintenance policy and logistics level. Operational availability is one of the key performance criteria against which today’s complex systems are measured. Predicting and ensuring system availability, while keeping life-cycle cost moderate, is a challenge, which becomes even harder for systems of systems.

■ Session 09C PHM for Electrical Systems Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Wednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vice Chair: Masoud Pourali KimiaPower PLLC (United States)Moderator: Juergen Herrmann JSH Consulting (Germany)This session provides practical examples of prognostics and health management in electrical systems such as batteries, rectifiers, and wind turbines.

09C1 A Spatio-Temporal Modeling Approach for Battery Pack Capacity PrognosticsZhaojun Li Western New England University (United States)Jian Guo, Lam ResearchThis paper proposes a spatio-temporal modeling method to tackle the dependency quantification among battery cells such that the battery pack-level life prediction can be more accurate and enhanced.


19

2019

09C2 A Wind Turbine Deteriorating Component Modelling Considering the Influence of Wind Speed Turbulence Intensity

Jinrui Ma (China)Mitra Fouladirad, University of technology of Troyes; Antoine Grall, Université de Technologie de Troyes & CNRS UMR SMTRHao Niu, Harbin Institute of Technology; Xuerong Ye; Jingnan Zhang; Lu WangA deterioration modelling considering the wind influence for wind turbine component.09C3 Fault Diagnosis of 12-phase Synchronous Rectified Power System Based

on Fuzzy Pattern RecognitionLiqin Wu Université de Technologie de Troyes (France)Mitra Fouladirad, University of technology of Troyes; Antoine Grall, Université de Technologie de Troyes & CNRS UMR SMTRA fuzzy pattern recognition method based on harmonics is proposed in this paper, and it realizes fault diagnosis in twelve phase synchronous rectification power generation system with multiple similar harmonic characteristics.09C4 Data-driven Prognostic Model of Li-ion Battery with Deep Learning AlgorithmNita Yoda (United States)Phattara Khumprom, North Dakota State University; Nita Yodo, North Dakota State UniversityA deep learning algorithm was developed and employed to predict the state of health and remaining useful life of Lithium-ion batteries.

■ Session 09D Applied Maintenance Models Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Wednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM



Moderator: TBAThis session highlights the more effective field maintenance approaches based on field data.

09D1 Maintenance Modelling of Complex Automated Guided Vehicle SystemsSarah Dunnett Loughborough University (United Kingdom)Lisa Jackson, Loughborough University; Rundong YanA model is developed of a multi automated guided vehicle system using Petri Nets and Genetic Algorithms to determine the optimal maintenance strategy.09D2 Increasing the Maintainability of Old Equipment Through the Use of Additive

Manufacturing of Spare PartsAlexandre Pinhel Furnas Centrais Elétricas S.A. (Brazil)Marco Azevedo, Furnas Centrais Elétricas S.A.; Aristides Silva, Furnas Centrais Elétricas S.A.; Gabriel Vieira; Felipe Gouvea, Tecgraf PUC-Rio; Renan Wanderley, Tecgraf PUC-Rio; Mariana Gioia; Leonardo SoaThis work will show a proof of concept that the use of Additive Manufacturing to develop spare parts increase the maintainability for old equipment. A case study on high voltage equipment used in the Electric Sector will be shown.09D3 Preventive Maintenance Optimization of Repairable Series System with General

Time DistributionsMingyuan Li Beihang University (China)Lin Ma, Beihang University; Wang Naichao, ; Xiao BopingThis paper proposes a method to solve the steady state availability of repairable series system with all the time distributions are general and propose the optimization method of preventive maintenance.09D4 Condition-Based Preventive Maintenance Optimization Approach for Multiple

Industrial Robotics with StochasticHaochen Wang Beihang University (China)Dezhen Yang, Beihang UniversityWe use genetic algorithms to solve the question about condition-based preventive maintenance optimization for multiple industrial robotics with stochastic missions.

■ Session 09E R&M Applications in Aerospace Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Wednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vice Chair: Lisa Bates Raytheon Company (United States)Moderator: Victor Claxton Raytheon Company (United States)This session addresses the challenges and techniques of Reliability in Aerospace applications.


20

2019

09E1 A Mobile Decision Support System for Aircraft DispatchHemmo Koornneef Delft University of Technology (Netherlands)Wim Verhagen, Delft University of Technology; Ricky Curran, Delft University of TechnologyThe abstract describes the development of a framework and prototype for a decision support system to aid aircraft maintenance technicians in aircraft dispatch decision making.09E2 Impact of Satellite Reliability and Global Data Traffic on the Profitability

of Communication ConstellationsKai Höfner Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Space Systems (Germany)Andreas Vahl, SAREL Consult GmbH; Enrico Stoll, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Space SystemsA new methodological approach for the identification of most profitable constellation designs using data traffic and network reliability analysis.09E3 The Army uses R&M Techniques to Develop Novel Flash Requirement

for the M62A1 Tracer MunitionChristopher Drake US ARMY ARDEC (United States)The Army used R&M techniques to help develop a new requirement to prevent undesirable flash events in fielded M62A1 cartridges to help potentially save soldiers lives.09E4 A Phase Dependent Reliability Model of a Stationary Plasma Thruster Propulsion SystemWei Huang Space Systems/Loral, LLC (United States)A phase dependent reliability model for a stationary plasma thruster propulsion system is developed by taking into account dynamic orbit raising duration and duty cycles.

■ Session 11A Introduction to Fractional Failure and Its Application in Reliability Fantasia Ballroom JWednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Feng-Bin Sun Tesla Inc. (United States)This tutorial provides a systematic and comprehensive introduction to the concept of fractional failure, actual scenarios when fractional failures are present, mathematical modeling, and data analysis. Numerous examples are given to illustrate the applications through various popular reliability software.

■ Session 11B Pitfalls of Accelerated Testing Fantasia Ballroom K-MWednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

William Meeker Iowa State University (United States)This tutorial, through a series of examples, will provide an overview some of the important pitfalls of accelerated tests and make suggestions on how to avoid them.

■ Session 11C Reliability Modeling in Management Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Wednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Ming Li US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (United States)Moderator: Bruce Douty Harris Corporation (United States)This session presents RAMS® applications to reliability management.

11C1 Utilization of Data and Models for Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) Semiconductor Reliability Assessment

Edmond Elburn CALCE (United States)Diganta Das, University of Maryland ; Bhanu Sood, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Michael Pecht, Center for Advanced Life Cycle EngineeringAn evaluation of information provided for COTS devices in order to complete a reliability assessment.11C2 Model-Based Reliability Requirements Engineering for Complex SystemsJustin Brown Raytheon/ Southern Methodist University (United States)Reliability is currently modeled using a single domain approach. Since it’s time-specific a unique Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach can be used to capture, analyze, and trace requirements. These requirements can more appropriately be analyzed using this MBSE process. MBSE provides an ideal canvas for capturing customer and stakeholder needs.11C3 Early Assessment of Drone Fleet Defence in Depth Capabilities for Mission SuccessNikolaos Papakonstantinou VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)Ahmed Bashir, Department of National Defence Canada; Bryan O'Halloran, Naval Postgraduate School; Douglas Van BossuytA methodology is proposed for the early assessment of Defence in Depth principles based on interdisciplinary dependency models of drone fleets.11C4 An Approach to Reliability Assessment of Complex Systems at CERNMiriam Blumenschein CERN (Switzerland)Jelena Spasic, CERN; Jens Steckert, CERN; Jan Uythoven, CERNAn approach for reliability assessment - including reliability requirements, risk assessment on functional level and detailed analysis of critical parts – is proposed and applied to the quench protection system, a large scale protection system at the accelerator LHC at CERN.


21

2019

■ Session 11D Risk Analysis and Management Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Wednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum Operations (United States)Moderator: Jian Guo Lam Research (United States)This session focuses on Applied Risk Management, Risk Informed decisions models, and the role of standards in management.

11D1 Resilience Assessment of Repair Strategies against Localized Attacks for Infrastructure ProtectionNita Yodo North Dakota State University (United States)Tanzina Afrin, North Dakota State University; Phattara Khumprom, North Dakota State UniversityTheoretical framework was developed to quantitatively compare the effect of various repair strategies against localized attacks in networked infrastructure systems.11D2 An Evaluation of Safety Standards of E/E/PES Systems Regarding Information

Consistency & Enhancement ProposalsErsin Hasan Dogruguven Aselsan Inc. (Turkey)İlker Üstoğlu, Yildiz Technical UniversityThis paper makes an evaluation of the safety standards of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety-related systems (E/E/PES) with regards to consistency of the information provided in these standards and their applicability. It provides open discussion and proposals for essential moot questions utilizing experiences gained in various safety-critical projects in long years, especially in the railway industry. IEC 61508 and CENELEC EN 50126, 50128 and 50129 are used as safety standards in this study.11D3 Applied Risk Management in Electric Power Plant Decision MakingJohn Weglian EPRI (United States)Jeff Riley, EPRI (United States)This paper explores the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in the electric power industry, particularly at commercial nuclear power plants. PRA is used to assess the risk of particular configurations due to maintenance, testing, or emergent conditions and to provide decision makers with the information that they need to make the appropriate operational decisions.11D4 A Risk Informed Application for Nuclear Safety Related Instrumentation and Control SystemsMing Li US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (United States)This paper demonstrates the Nuclear Regulatory Commission risk-informed regulation framework using a licensing application to the nuclear instrumentation and control systems.

■ Session 11E R&M Applications in Defense Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Wednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Vice Chair: Lisa Bates Raytheon Company (United States) Moderator: James Wasiloff BAE Systems (United States)This session addresses the quantifiable reliability cases, and several techniques in testing and degradation of component reliability.

11E1 Comprehensive Methods for Determining ESS Vibration Precipitation EfficiencyDustin Aldridge Raytheon Company (United States) Stan Czerniel, Raytheon CompanyMil-HDBK-344A introduces an Axis Sensitivity Factor for ESS Vibration Precipitation Efficiency with no direction regarding ESS strategy or how to properly estimate this value.11E2 Motivating the PM: A Quantifiable Reliability Case ApproachJason Cook U.S. Army ARDEC-QE & SA (United States)Shawn Brady, ; Andrew Thompson, US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA)This paper proposes an objective approach to assessing reliability using quantitative and qualitative inputs.11E3 Strength of Screen Evaluation for Dormant-Storage Multi-Shot DevicesStephen Crowder Sandia National Laboratories (United States)Elmer Collins, Sandia National LaboratoriesWe present a methodology for applying an environmental stress screen (ESS) to a dormant storage multi-shot device.11E4 Determination of Reliability and Degradation of Electronic Components

Via Electromagnetic Emissions AnalysisAdam Brant Nokomis Inc (United States)This paper presents a method of determining component and device degradation via analysis of electromagnetic emissions.


22

2019

■ Session 12A Practical Guide to Reliability Growth Analysis Fantasia Ballroom JWednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Dmitry Tananko GDLS (United States)This tutorial will familiarize the audience with current concepts related to Reliability Growth within a Systems Engineering program. Examples are used to illustrate practical aspects of the methodology and statistical inferences of various models.

■ Session 12B Probabilistic Analysis and Design Fantasia Ballroom K-MWednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Clifford Lange Structural Integrity Associates (United States)This tutorial introduces the key concepts & techniques commonly used in the probabilistic design and analysis of engineering systems.

■ Session 12C DoD Panel: R&M Engineering Approaches and Challenges in Software, Autonomy, AI and Cyber


Wednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PMVice Chair: Troy Schwartz Industry Solutions & Services (United States)Moderator: Walt Tomczykowski


Paneists:Andrew Monje Deputy Director for Specialty Engineering, Office of the Under Secretary of

Defense for Research and EngineeringPaul Dube NAVSEA R&M Engineering ManagerRichard Payne ASA(ALT) PoR SE Support, RMWG Chair, Software Sub-Group ChairThe increased use of autonomy and artificial intelligence technologies in DoD systems directly impacts system reliability and maintainability (R&M). To adapt to this evolution in technology, current R&M engineering design practices and methods need to evolve. Challenges include requirements and metrics; which R&M activities add value; maturing reliability in the design process (Modeled Based Systems Engineering); identifying the right tests to perform; what is R&M engineering's role in resilience (cyber); and who in the organization has the responsibility and necessary skills. This panel will discuss these challenges from a DoD perspective.

■ Session 12D Availability Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Wednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM



We will discuss availability analysis and the decisions that maximize operational availability in the field.

12D1 System of Systems Architecture Modeling and Mission Reliability Analysis Based on DoDAF and Petri Net

Zhiwei Chen Beihang University (China)Jian Jiao, ; Ting-di Zhao, ; Yaqiu LiWe used the DoDAF 2.0 and Petri net to analyze mission reliability of the Formation Cooperative Defense System of Systems.12D2 Bayesian Integrated Global Uncertainty & Sensitivity Analysis of system’s availabilityPawel Stano ABB Corporate Research Center (Poland)Michal Spirzewski, National Centre for Nuclear ResearchThe purpose of this manuscript is to introduce a novel conceptual design of a method that allows integration of Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis (BUA) with Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis (BSA) for event-driven indicators of system’s availability. The discussed approach is based on global exploration of parameters’ space, which allows to capture higher-order interactions between correlated variables, thus avoiding common pitfalls of methods based on local state space explorations.12D3 Availability Analyses of Maintained Systems with Confidence IntervalsFrank Müller Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart (Germany)Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine ComponentsExtended approach for availability analysis with confidence interval of maintained systems. Using this method it is possible to analyze the availability with confidence interval of a repairable system with an individual maintenance strategy. The method has the potential to be applied to more general scenarios.12D4 Availability Modeling and Analysis of Fleet Aircrafts Basing on Inventory Network

of Transshipment PoliciesXinBo Zhang (China)Wang Naichao, ; Xiao Boping, ; Lin Ma, Beihang UniversityBased on inventory network, the influence of spare parts transshipment policies under Random Policy and Priority Policy on multi-system availability modeling and analysis is studied.


23

2019TUTORIALS, SESSIONS, WORKSHOPS (cont.)

■ Session 12E Real World Application of Reliability Growth Analysis Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Wednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Vice Chair: Lisa Bates Raytheon Company (United States)Moderator: Bahig Tawfellos Honeywell Aerospace (United States)This session will explore techniques applied to the commercial world products to improve reliability growth analysis models.

12E1 Bayesian Approach for Design for ReliabilityEduardo Cota Raytheon Company (United States)Shawn NewellThis paper provides an assessment method to compare design alternatives, the method starts as early as the concept development phase of a system. The method uses Bayesian techniques to quantify system reliability and reliability growth using system and subsystem test results, both historical and planned.12E2 Field Reliability Analysis Dashboard - an Effective Tool to Evaluate LED Projector ReliabilityElena Gorcea Christie (Canada)Monika Wieder, ChristiePresenting an interactive Reliability Analysis Dashboard using Mean Cumulative Function and Reliability Growth Models to quantify and monitor field reliability performance for a fleet of LED projectors.12E3 Organizational Productivity Measurement Method Applied on Electric Utility CompanyBagus Setiawan Iskandar PT PLN (Persero) (Indonesia)Herry Nugraha, PT PLN (Persero); Dessy Widi, PT PLN (Persero)This paper is to study the organizational productivity measurement method that involving multiple inputs multiple outputs applied on electric utility company.12E4 Analyzing Field Failure Data of Complex Repairable Systems for Failure PredictionsÖzlem Yılmaz Aselsan Electronics Industry and Trade, Inc. (Turkey)The aim of this study is to predict the future number of failures of complex repairable systems by examining the real field failure data. The study was conducted for different kinds of collection of complex repairable systems and we will discuss and interpret our findings and lessons learned during the process.

■ General Reception and Banquet Ballroom of the Americas

Wednesday, 6:00 PM – 9:30 PM

Banquet Speaker

SCOTT D. ALTMAN Captain, USN, Retired

"Reach for the Stars"

24


Thursday • January 31, 2019

■ Session 13A Better Accelerated Testing Fantasia Ballroom JThursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Wayne Nelson Wayne Nelson Statistical Consulting (United States)This tutorial presents better models and statistical methods for accelerated tests that will run faster and yield more accurate information.

■ Session 13B Introduction to Human Reliability Fantasia Ballroom K-MThursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Huafei Liao Jensen Hughes (United States)This tutorial provides an introduction to Human Reliability Analysis, including its history, concepts, methods, process, and latest developments.

■ Session 13C Accelerated Life Test Planning & Optimization Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Thursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vice Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: Andre Kleyner Aptiv (United States)This session provides organizational techniques of implementing Accelerated Life Test Planning and Optimization.

13C1 A Methodology for Consideration of Uncertainty in Lifetime-Design of ExperimentsAlexander Kremer Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart (Germany)Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine ComponentsThis paper discusses a methodology for prediction of the reliability in the field with a confidence level in the context of design of experiments for lifetime data. Key Words: lifetime-design of experiments, lifetime models, uncertainty, confidence level13C2 Optimal Planning and Inference for Sequential Accelerated Life Testing with Two

or More Experimental FactorsArun Bala Subramaniyan (United States)Rong Pan, Arizona State University; Wendai Wang, LumentumThis paper is about planning and inference of sequential accelerated life testing involving two or more factors.13C3 Robust Design for Accelerated Life Tests: Weighted Clustering ApproachKangwon Seo University of Missouri (United States)In this paper, we propose a weighted clustering approach for constructing ALT design under model coefficient uncertainty; and compare it with other classical approaches.13C4 System Global Acceleration Factor and Life Test Design Considering Stress

Non-Homogeneity Across ComponentsFeng-Bin Sun Tesla Inc. (United States)This paper targets a common headache in reliability engineering, in particular the life test design for a product with regional stress non-homogeneity. It derives a system level acceleration factor for a product under a uniform steady-state stressing environment, but with different stress response at different component locations. Numerical example is given to illustrate the advantage of the method for reliability life test design over the traditional practice, especially for high-reliability product.

■ Session 13D System Safety Analysis Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Thursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vice Chair: Troy Schwartz Accenture (United States)Moderator: Natesan Jambulingan

NASA (United States)

Without reliability, safety cannot be achieved. This session explores safety of load bearing structures, critical components in cyber-physical systems, cyber security of control systems, and safety simulations based petri nets.

13D1 System-Safety in the Application of Adaptive Load-Bearing StructuresAndreas Ostertag University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine Components (Germany)Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine Components; Traian-Nicu Toader, Institute for Lightweight Structures and Conceptual Design, University of StuttgartAdaptive load-bearing structures include mechanical components e.g. actuators and control and are active systems compared to conventional buildings. Therefore an alternative system safety evaluation needs to be done.

25


13D2 Mixed-Degradation Profiles Assessment of Critical Components in Cyber-Physical SystemsNita Yoda (United States)Om Prakash Yadav, North Dakota State University; Alex Davila Frias, North Dakota State UniversityA quantitative framework is developed to capture various critical components degradation profile. Further, these components degradation will be aggregated to determine the top-level cyber-physical system degradation rate.13D3 Facing the Challenges of Cyber Security for Industrial Control Systems:

Lessons from the Power IndustryAlexandre Pinhel Furnas Centrais Elétricas S.A. (Brazil)Giovanna Dondossola, RSE - Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico; Iony Siqueira, TecnixThis work will show the up to date understanding of cyber security by the Electric Sector so that this knowledge can be used by others industries sectors.13D4 Safety Simulation and Analysis for Complex Systems Concurrency Based on Petri Net

and Stateflow ModelJie Dong Beihang University, School of Reliability and Systems Engineering (China)Jian Jiao, ; Hongqing Xia; Jiayun Chu, Beihang University, School of Reliability and Systems EngineeringThis paper proposes a modeling and simulation method for complex systems concurrency based on Petri net and Stateflow model.

■ Session 13E Reliability Growth Analysis Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Thursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vice Chair: Lisa Bates Raytheon Company (United States)Moderator: Diganta Das University of Maryland (United States)This session will explore techniques to improve reliability growth analysis simulations based on multiple data sources, non-parametric data and non-repairable items.

13E1 Reliability Growth Projections Based on Data from Multiple Data Sources and EnvironmentsLarry Crow Crow Reliability Resources, Inc (United States)This paper presents a reliability growth methodology to project the increase in reliability for a system or subsystem that utilizes failure data from test outside the dedicated reliability growth test. This methodology is based on the Crow Projection Mode13E2 A Nonparametric Degradation-Based Method for Modeling Reliability GrowthCesar Ruiz Torres University of Arkansas (United States)Haitao Liao, University of Arkansas; Ed Pohl, University of ArkansasWe propose a nonparametric degradation-based method for modeling reliability growth. A nonparametric model is utilized to analyze accelerated degradation test data in a multi-stage reliability growth program, and corrective actions are assumed to change t13E3 Optimal Reliability Growth Program for Repairable and Warranted ProductsYiliu Liu Norwegian University of Science and Technology (Norway)Yukun Wang, Tianjin Chengjian UniversityThis paper presents an approach to integrate the considerations of warranty costs into the planning of a reliability growth program for new products. It investigates the amount of resources, e.g. time, in reliability growth, with the purpose of balancing 13E4 A Simulation-Based Approach to Incorporate Uncertainty in Reliability Growth PlanningMohammadsadegh Mobin FCA US LLC (United States(FMohammad Hijawi, FCA US LLCThis paper proposes a new Reliability Growth (RG) planning approach which considers the uncertainty associated with the RG planning parameters used to develop the plan. The new proposed probabilistic RG approach is an extension of current reliability gr

■ Session 14A Introduction to System Safety Fantasia Ballroom JThursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Stephen Brunner Acquisition Logistics Engineering (United States)This tutorial provides an introduction to the terminology and guidance related to system safety, along with a basic overview and description of the more common safety/hazard analyses.

■ Session 14B Risk Management Principles and Techniques Fantasia Ballroom K-MThursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Rick Jones Jensen Hughes (United States)This tutorial provides a foundation for scientists, engineers, and business executives to explicitly apply risk-based approaches to help solve problems in their disciplines.

26

2019

■ Session 14C Accelerated Life Test from Factory to the Field Sorcerer's Apprentice 1Thursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vice Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: Wei-Ting Chien SMIC (China)This session reviews techniques and examples of developing testing that addresses variability in both manufacturing processes and environmental stresses.

14C1 Cost- and Time-Effective Planning of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration TestsThomas Herzig Institute of Machine Components (IMA) (Germany)Martin Dazer, University of Stuttgart; Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine Components; Alexander Grundler, Institute of Machine Components (IMA)Introduction of a new approach of comparing the expenditure of Success Run and End-of-Life tests regarding of time, cost and Probability of Success (PoS).14C2 Replication of Field Scenario in Reliability TestingNarasimman Sunderajan HCL Technologies Ltd (India)Kulotunghan Ramar, HCL Technologies LtdThis paper suggests a methodology how to replicate the field scenario in testing by combining the stress in the test and how to effectively use Kurtosian in random vibration testing14C3 Combined Testing and Validation Strategy for the New LHC BLM Processing ModuleVolker Schramm CERN (Switzerland)Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine Components; William Viganò, CERN; Mathieu Saccani, CERNThis paper presents a comprehensive test strategy, from validation in different environments to burn-in, for the processing module upgrade of the LHC Beam Loss Monitoring system.14C4 Challenges and Best Practices in Mixed Flow Gas Corrosion Testing of ElectronicsGarron Morris Rockwell Automation (United States)Christopher Genthe, Rockwell Automation; Richard LukaszewskiThis paper describes the authors’ challenges and best practices with performing over 25 mixed flow gas tests on nearly 50 industrial electronic products.

■ Session 14D R&M Applications in Process Improvement Sorcerer's Apprentice 2Thursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vice Chair: Lisa Bates Raytheon Company (United States) Moderator: Eduardo Cota Raytheon Company (United States) This session presents techniques for simulation and estimation that drive reliability process improvement.

14D1 A Numerical Simulation Method for Ploughing Effect of Three-body AbrasionYueheng Song School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University (China)Shengkui Zeng, Beihang University; Bohong Cao, Sino-French Engineering School; Jiming MaFirst, the Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the random distribution of contaminant particles in lubricant. Then the quantitative calculation method for the wear caused by the three-body wear ploughing effect is proposed based on Johnson-Cook model.14D2 Development of a Guidebook in Support of the NASA R&M Standard

for Spaceflight and Support SystemsTodd Paulos Jet Propulsion Laboratory (United States)Jeffery Nunes, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Anthony DiVenti, NASA; Chester Everline, Jet Propulsion LaboratoryNASA Standard 8729.1A, NASA Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) Standard for Spaceflight and Support Systems, specifies technical objectives and strategies for NASA programs and projects that should be used in the planning, execution and evaluation of specific R&M objectives. In support of this standard, the NASA has undertaken development of a guidebook analogous to NASA’s Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners.14D3 Damage State Estimation for Reusable Spacecraft Structure under Complex StressYi Cui (China)Yongbo Zhang; Zhihua Wang; Huimin FuThis paper proposes a novel damage state estimation method for reusable spacecraft experiencing complex stress loading processes.14D4 Strategies for Testing and Assessing Population Reliability for Nonhomogeneous

Populations of One Shot DevicesKevin Singer US Army, ARDEC (United States)This paper addresses issues with reliability assessment and improvement when a subsystem has a nonhomogeneous population with regards to failure rate.


27

2019

■ Session 14E Prognostics & Health Management Sorcerer's Apprentice 3Thursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Vice Chair: Masoud Pourali KimiaPower PLLC (United States)Moderator: Juergen Herrmann JSH Consulting (Germany)This sessions reviews applications of advanced modeling techniques in prognostics and health management (PHM).

14E1 Comparison of Model-Based Diagnosis Methods: Testability Modeling & RodonChuxuan Fan (China)Junyou ShiIn order to make diagnosis and inference system better serve complex systems and develop model-based diagnosis modeling analysis method theories, dependency matrix (D matrix) in testability modeling and diagnosis model generation rules of Rodon are compared in this paper. Based on comparison, the application features of Rodon in the field of diagnosis modeling and the differences between Rodon and D matrix can be obtained.14E2 Design of the Detection Probe Based on ACFMJianyu Li (China)Laibin Zhang, China University of Petroleum-Beijing; Wenpei ZHENG, China University of Petroleum-Beijing; Yijing Feng, China University of Petroleum-BeijingA new type of ACFM detection probe has been designed with the pair of excitation coils arranged in parallel. Numerical simulations and experiments in real pipelines were carried out and analyzed.14E3 A Failure Isolation Algorithm for Liquid Engine Health Management SystemZhaofeng Huang Aerojet Rocketdyne (United States)Robert Aguilar, Aerojet RocketdyneDevelop and implement an failure isolation algorithm for liquid propulsion engine but also can be useful for other products.14E4 A Fusion Diagnosis Method Using Multi-Sourced Monitoring Data for Rotating Machinery FaultZhuang Yuan College of Safety and Ocean Engineering. China University of Petroleum-Beijing (China)Laibin Zhang; Lixiang DuanA deep learning based fusion diagnosis method is proposed for faults of rotor systems, using vibration signals and infrared images simultaneously.

■ Session 15A Colloquium Session and iPad Drawing Fantasia Ballroom JThursday, 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM

Sean Carter NASA Johnson Space Center (United States)This session offers a more dynamic opportunity to interact with some authors directly and is subject to change. Real time updates to this session will be available from the RAMS® App or contact Sean Carter or Any Paper Session VC.

15A1 Beyond Miner’s Rule: Part II - Free Energy Damage Equivalence ApplicationsAlec Feinberg DFR Software (United States)Often when a new approach comes along, it is not easy to fully appreciate its applicability. Therefore, in this paper we provide a part 2 of the prior paper that introduced this new approach to assess damage. Here we will demonstrate its application in the area of fatigue in metals and secondary batteries.15A2 A Test Method for the Failure Mechanisms Consistency of Accelerated Degradation

Test Based on Wiener ProcessBoKai Zheng (China)Yigang Lin; Guofu Zhai; Xuerong Ye; Shuang Si; Cen Chen, Harbin Institute of TechnologyThis paper studies the failure mechanisms consistency of products' accelerated degradation tests, and proposed a method to test the failure mechanisms consistency of an accelerated degradation test based on Wiener process.15A3 Diagnostics Model Enhanced MaintenanceRaymond Beshears Raytheon Company (United States)Diagnostic Dependency models integrated with maintenance procedures advance human-machine integration throughout the sustainment phase.15A4 Oceanic Surface Environmental SeverityAndrew Todd Raytheon Company (United States)Dustin Aldridge, RaytheonData from buoys, ships, and platforms will be analyzed to compare those environments to daily environments specified in military handbooks and land based locations.15A5 State of Health Estimation with an Improved Gaussian Process RegressionZengkai Wang Beihang University (China)Shengkui Zeng, Beihang University; Jianbin GuoThis paper extracts two typical aging features from the charging profile as indirect indicators of the battery health, and proposes a novel online SOH estimation framework based on quantum particle swarm optimization based Gaussian process regression for the lithium-ion battery.


28

2019

15A6 Satellite Failure Estimation vs. Reliability Prediction AnalysisSeda Gures FNSS Defence Systems Inc. (Turkey)This study proposed a developing method to compare the reliability prediction analysis of a satellite with the results of failure estimation algorithm using the real satellite failures observed in space.15A7 Maximizing the Fault Tolerance of Railway NetworksClaudia Fecarotti University of Nottingham (United Kingdom)John AndrewsThis paper explores options to maximise fault tolerance of railway networks.15A8 Challenges in Modeling and Simulation: Balancing Performance, Schedule

and Cost in Rapid AcquisitionSamantha Alpert Technomics (United States)Courtney Kawazoe, DoD; Alex Nguyen, DoD; Justin Woulfe, SysteconApplication of reliability Modeling and Simulation for next generation Direct Energy systems, enabling programmatic balancing of Performance, Schedule, and Cost in Rapid Prototyping, Experimentation, and Demonstration Programs.15A9 Laptops in Space: A Sparing Analysis Case Study for Personal Computers Used

in Deep Space ExplorationNicholas Meyer NASA (United States)Jacob Wologo, NASAA sparing analysis case study for utilizing personal computers in deep space missions.15A10 CBM: A Tool for Increasing Reliability Through Digital MonitoringStephen Brunner Acquisition Logistics Engineering (United States)Laibin Zhang; Lixiang DuanThis paper will discuss the utility of implementing a CBM Program, including the integration of health monitoring, fault detection and isolation, and prognostic concepts. A real-life example is provided utilizing modern sensor technology and data analytic.15A11 Modeling and Performance Analysis of Micro-grid System under Cyber-AttacksChengwu Shao (China)ShouzhouLiu; Yanfu LiThis paper focus on modeling and simulating the impact of cyber-attack to micro-grid, finding the most vulnerable point in micro-grid and analyze its reliability.15A12 Reliability Evaluation for the C4ISR Communication System via Propagation ModelXiang Li University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (China)Hongzhong Huang, ; Cheng-Geng Huang, Institute of Reliability Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China; Xiang-Yu Li, University of Electronic Science and TecThis paper proposes a new method for evaluating the reliability of wireless communication based on the analysis of path loss models for frequencies from 0.5 to 30 GHz.15A13 Destructive Degradation Testing of Batteries for Army Fuzing ApplicationsMelissa Jablonski US Army ARDEC (United States)Kevin Singer, US Army, ARDEC; Charles McMullan; Giuseppe Di Benedetto, US Army ARDEC; Richard Dratler, US Army ARDECAs Army munitions become smarter, they are utilizing more electronic components that require increased power for a longer duration. This study uses accelerated life testing to investigate the potential of active primary lithium batteries to meet this need.15A14 Overview of State of Art in Prognostics and Health Management System

for Landing Gear MaintenanceSyed Haider United Technologies Aerospace Systems (Canada)Integrated shock absorber health monitoring system detects system deterioration and failure conditions in real-time including hard landing and provides early warning for maintenance actions. It also provides historical trend analysis and act as digital assistant to supports the maintenance staff during servicing task for ensuring improved accuracy.15A15 Optimal One-Dimensional Free-Replacement Warranty Period for AGM BatteriesWilkistar Otieno University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (United States)Jennifer Garantiva; Phillip LaCasseThe purpose of this paper is to study how suitable the existing 12-month one-dimensional free-replacement warranty policy for the Absorbent Glass Mat (AGM) batteries that are commonly used in the automobile industry.15A16 Reliability Enhancement Test Evaluation Based on Accelerated Growth ModelYuankai Gao Xiaogang Li, University of Beihang (China)Jianhua Ye, BeiHang University; Lei Niu, BeiHang University; Yuning He, BeiHang UniversityA Quantitative Evaluation Method for Reliability Enhancement Test Based on Accelerated Growth Model.


29

2019

While all sessions will contain elements of interest for the majority of participants, special disciplines are emphasized in individual sessions. If your profession tends to specialize in the areas listed in the first column below, we recommend you attend the sessions listed opposite your specialty.

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY

Paticipant Specialty 10:15-

12:15pm1:30-

3:30pm3:45-

5:45pm8:00-

10:00am10:15-

12:15pm1:30-

3:30pm3:45-

5:45pm8:00-

10:00am1:30-

3:30pm3:45-

5:45pm8:00-

10:00am10:15-

12:15pm

Data Analysis1A, 1B,

1E 3C,3D 5A 5A,6B, 6E

7A,7B, 7C 8B,8D 9C 6E 12A,12B,

12E 13E 14E

Design/Development 2E 8B,8E 9A,9E 11E 12B,12C 13A 14A

Maintainability

1A 3A,3B 5B 7A 9B 12C,12D

Maintenance

1B 3E 5B 6C,6D 7C 9A,9D

Management

3A 5C 6B 7C 8A 11A,11C 12C 13B 14A,14B

Reliability

1A,1B 3A,3B 7C 8B 9B 11B 12A,12B, 12C 13A 14A,14B

Risk Management & Analysis

1C 3C 7C 8A 11D 11A 12C 13B 14B

Safety & Security 1D 3C 7C 13D 14A

Simulation &Modeling 1B 2B,2C,

2D 3B 5A 5A,6B, 5D,5E

7A,7B, 7D,7E 8C 9A 11B 12A 13A,13C 14C

Software

2B 6B 7B

Statistics &Probability 1A,1B 2D 3C,3D 5B 6B 7A,7B 8B 9C 12A,12B 13A

SystemsEngineering 7B 8B 9A,9B 11A 12C 13A,13B 14B

RAMS® 2019 DISCIPLINE TRACKS

30

2019

Accelerated Life TestingAutonomous Systems and AIAvailabilityBig Data and IoT Applications in R&MBusiness Process ImprovementDesign Optimization Using R&M TechniquesDiscrete Event Modeling & SimulationEconomic Models for R&M EquipmentDiagnostics and PrognosticsFMEAFault Tolerance and Safety Critical SystemsFault Tree Analysis

Human ReliabilityKnowledge Based TrainingLife Data AnalysisMaintenance Models and MethodologiesPhysical Reliability ModelsPrognostics and Health ManagementQuality Appl. in Electronics Design & Mfg.R&M Applications in AerospaceR&M Applications in Health CareR&M Applications in Infrastructure ManagementR&M Applications in ManufacturingR&M Applications in Service

R&M Applications in SupportabilityR&M and Quality Appl. in Communications Design & Mfg.R&M ManagementReliability ModelingReliability Growth AnalysisRepairable SystemsRisk Analysis and ManagementSecurity and Dependability AnalysisSoftware Reliability and TestingSoftware SafetySystem Safety AnalysisWarranty Data Analysis and Management

2020 Theme: “R&M in a Model-based System Engineering Environment”The Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium

January 27-30, 2020Marriott Renaissance Palm Springs Hotel, Palm Springs, Ca

ABSTRACT SUBMISSION DEADLINE — Friday, April 12, 2019The 66th Annual Reliability & Maintainability Symposium (RAMS®) will be held at the Marriott Renaissance in Palm Springs, CA during the week of January 27-30, 2020. The theme for RAMS® 2020 is “R&M in a Model-based System Engineering Environment”. The evolution of autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, new levels of complexity in human-machine interface design, and maintainability decisions have intensified the critical role of RAMS® disciplines. Integrating design elements from concept to final design that replicates actual working environments is the challenge industry faces today. The RAMS® 2020 theme offers a broad umbrella of opportunities for presenting papers and tutorials that address theory and application of RAMS® disciplines in the design, development and support process; and how these disciplines can be applied to new technologies through lessons learned, analyses, modeling, and simulation. Equally important is the discussion on the classical approaches, spanning all technologies, and disciplines focusing on optimizing performance.

With this in mind, we invite you to share the theoretical or practical findings of your research, engineering case studies, success stories, lessons learned, R&M based analyses and simulations, or R&M discoveries at RAMS® 2020 Palm Springs. Tell us how you are designing, optimizing, and supporting systems (both hardware and software) through the execution of RAMS® disciplines. RAMS® is the premier forum for sharing your experience, knowledge, and roadmaps to success. Make your contribution to the advancement of the RAMS® disciplines and enjoy participating in the rich exchange of ideas and solutions. We want you to contribute your unique experience to our synergistic symposium sponsored by nine professional societies. Start planning to submit your paper or tutorial now.

RAMS® seeks to provide a mix of papers and tutorials. Papers are the best medium to document advances in the state-of-the-art research, and those accepted after being properly peer reviewed will be published in the Conference Proceedings. A short technical presentation with discussion period (approximately half an hour) will be given for each paper at the Symposium. It is the policy of RAMS® to publish all papers presented at RAMS® in IEEE Xplore. Tutorials provide exposure to more fundamental topics. Their technical depth ranges from introductory to advanced. Tutorials are presented in two-hour in-depth sessions at the Symposium. Examples of the most recent written papers and tutorials are available in the 2019 Proceedings and the 2019 Tutorial Notes. The process for presenting a paper or tutorial at RAMS® 2020 begins with your submission of an abstract. Your submittal should address topics pertinent to Reliability and Maintainability and that are relevant to our theme. The selected topics are listed below:

2020 CALL FOR PAPERS & TUTORIALS

31

20192020 CALL FOR PAPERS & TUTORIALS (cont.)

If you wish to present a paper or tutorial at RAMS® 2020, now is the time to begin your preparation. To have your paper or tutorial considered for RAMS® 2020, you must first submit an abstract.

The paper submitted must represent your original work and should not be published or presented in any other journals or conferences. Tutorials must address key areas of broad interest in reliability and maintainability engineering.

Abstracts must be submitted via rams.org and the abstract submission process will be available from March 1, 2019, until April 12, 2019.

To submit an abstract for a paper or tutorial, an author must provide the following:

• A title of no more than 80 characters• An abstract (all text—no equations, figures, or

tables) of no more than 1000 words• Names and contact information for all authors• An indication of which author will present the

paper (if it is accepted for the Symposium)• Relevant topic areas for their abstract (from the

list on the previous page of this Call for Papers)

The names of the author(s) should not be included in either the title or in the abstract. Authors will also be asked to indicate if any authors are full-time students (to assess qualification for the RAMS® student paper award), and to which (if any) of the nine RAMS® sponsoring societies each author belongs. Membership in a RAMS® sponsoring society is not required for acceptance. Each author can submit no more than four paper abstracts and no more than four tutorial abstracts for consideration. Authors cannot be added to a paper or tutorial after the abstract submission deadline.

The abstract submission procedure for papers and tutorials is the same with the following exceptions: they both use different links to upload the abstracts, each paper can have no more than four authors and each tutorial can have no more than two authors. Upon receipt of your abstract, you will receive a confirmation e-mail from RAMS®. Therefore, it is critical that all authors provide and maintain a valid e-mail address that can accept e-mails. If an author moves or changes addresses, the author must provide their new contact information to the RAMS® Program Committee.

Note that all correspondence regarding papers and tutorials will be sent to the e-mail address of the author who submits the abstract.

Review Procedure for Papers In May 2019, the RAMS® Program Committee selects a preliminary program of candidate papers and

tutorials. Selection of candidate papers is based on innovative-ness, technical merit, clarity, and relevance to the Symposium theme, as demonstrated by the abstract. The status of their abstract will be notified to authors in early June 2019. Authors of candidate papers are required to submit complete drafts of both the paper and presentation slides by the end of July 2019. Draft papers shall be submitted without author identification on the paper in order to accommodate a blind peer review. The specific requirements for papers and presentation slides will be communicated to authors in a timely fashion. Submitted draft of candidate papers will be subjected to review by the Program Committee and RAMS® Editorial Board. The draft candidate papers will also be submitted to IEEE CrossCheck plagiarism detection tool. Authors will be given feedback on their draft papers and presentation slides by the end of August 2019.Authors of candidate papers must submit their final paper and presentation slides by the end of September 2019. Final papers will be reviewed by both the Program Committee and the RAMS® Proceedings Editor. At this time, authors must also complete a RAMS® Copyright Form, and at least one author of candidate papers must register (at a reduced fee) for the Symposium. By submitting an abstract for a paper, the author is accepting the condition that a candidate paper may be rejected at any time if the Program Committee determines that the author is failing to comply with RAMS® deadlines or policies, or if the Program Committee determines that the content of the paper is not of sufficient quality to merit publication in the Proceedings. For more information contact the Program Chair at [email protected]. The author is accepting the condition that if their paper is ultimately accepted into the Proceedings, at least one author on the paper will register for the Symposium, attend the Symposium, and present the paper at the Symposium in reasonably fluent English.

Review Procedure for Tutorials The review procedure for tutorials is identical to the review procedure for papers except that they are reviewed only by Tutorial Committee and are not subjected to a blind review. Authors of accepted tutorials receive gratis registration for Symposium. For more information, contact the Tutorials Chair, at [email protected].

By submitting an abstract for a tutorial, the author is accepting the condition that if their tutorial is ultimately accepted for the Symposium, the author and/or co-author will attend the Symposium and deliver the tutorial at the Symposium in reasonably fluent English.

32

2019

MANAGEMENT COMMITTEEGeneral Chair

Charlie Plotkin, Ford Motor Company, Retired

Vice General ChairJulio Pulido, Nortek

TreasurerAlfred Stevens, Lockheed-Martin, Retired

Assistant TreasurerRobert Loomis, Jr., NASA, Retired

SecretaryJess Leszczynski, Sierra Nevada Corporation

Advanced Registration ConsultantRay Sears, Consultant

Program CommitteeSean Carter*, NASAWendai Wang, Thoratec CorporationMing Li, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionDan Burrows, ASQ-RDBill Haughey, ReliaTrainLisa Bates, Raytheon CompanyMasoud Pourali, KimiaPower PLLCTroy Schwartz, AccentureAnnette Skowronska, RDECOM TARDEC

Tutorials CommitteeCaroline Lubert*, James Madison UniversityKellie Schneider, University of DaytonJohn Healy, Federal Communications CommissionVasiliy Krivtsov, The Ford Motor CompanyPhil Mongan, ARES Corporation

Publicity CommitteeMelvin Downes*, ASQ ECDSteve Glenn, Raytheon CompanyMark White, NASA/JPL

Arrangements CommitteeYing Shi*, NASAJohn Klohoker, NASA/JPLDmitry Tananko, General Dynamics Land SystemJess Leszczynski, Sierra Nevada Corporation

Registration CommitteeOm Yadav*, North Dakota State UniversityKen Dalton, Retired Reliability EngineerPaul Franklin, GenpactLori Bechtold, ConsultantMohammad Hijawi, FCA US LLC

Exhibits CommitteeDavid F. Barber*, Scien-Tech Assoc., Inc

Proceedings CommitteeJoel A. Nachlas*, Virginia Tech

BOARD OF DIRECTORSChair

David Fernald, ASQ ECD

SecretaryJulio Pulido, Nortek

AIAA David Oberhettinger, NASA – JPLBill Wessel, ARES Corporation

ASQ – Electronics & Communications DivisionDawn Onalfo, IBM Global Services, RetiredCharlie Plotkin, Ford Motor Company, Retired

ASQ – Reliability DivisionTrevor Craney, UTC Aerospace Systems

IEEE Reliability SocietyTom Fagan, TLF AssociatesRick Jones, Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection & Insurance Co.

IIEGeoffrey Okogbaa, Univ. of South Florida &Federal University

Wukari, NIGERIA & Federal University Wukari, NIGERIAEd Pohl, University of Arkansas

IESTDustin Aldridge, Raytheon Missile SystemsLarry Crow, Crow Reliability Resources

ISSS [Open]

SAESuprasad Amari, BAE SystemsAron Brall, MAB Consultants

SRERobert Loomis, Jr., NASA RetiredAlfred Stevens, Lockheed-Martin, Retired

LRPC-Human ResourcesAlfred Stevens, Lockheed-Martin, Retired

LONG RANGE PLANNING COMMITTEEKeith Janasak, Raytheon CompanyHenry Hartt, Independent Defense & Space ProfessionalDan Deans, Millennium Engineering and Integration Co.Andrew Monje, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary

of DefenseAli Mosleh, University of California, Los AngelesRandolph G. Phillips, AggrekoPantelis Vassiliou, Vassiliou VenturesFrank Groen, NASA Office of Safety and Mission AssuranceDebra Herrera, Raytheon Company

RAMS® ORGANIZATION

33

2019

ADVISORY BOARDDavid Coit, Rutgers UniversitySusan L. Hall, Millennium Engineering and Integration Co.Andrew Monje, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary

of DefenseAli Mosleh, University of California, Los AngelesRandolph G. Phillips, AggrekoPantelis Vassiliou, Vassiliou VenturesFrank Groen, NASA Office of Safety and Mission AssuranceDebra Herrera, Raytheon Company

ASSOCIATE EDITORS

Abishai Daniel, Intel CorpAllan Mense, Raytheon Missile SystemsAnatoly Lisnianski, Israel Electric CompanyAndre Kleyner, Delphi Electronics & SafetyBob Reinertsen, Baker HughesC. C. Jane, Ling Tung UniversityChristopher Berenguer, Grenoble Institute of TechnologyClifton Lancaster, Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection

& Insurance Co.Deovrat “Kev” Kakde, SAS Institute IncEdwin Vijay Kumar, Vizag SteelEmmanuel Remy, EDFFrank Fan, FinningGregory Butler, Nordson ASYMTEKHarry Guo, Fiat Chrysler AutomobilesJJ Cho, AggrekoJose Ramirez-Marquez, Stevens Institute of TechnologyKatrina Groth, Mechanical Engineering University of MarylandMarcel Chevalier, Schneider ElectricMelinda Hodkiewicz, University of Western AustraliaMin Xie, City University of Hong KongPaul Schimmerling, RenaultRamdev Kanapady, mscworks.netRamesh Anapathur, BoeingSameer Vittal, GE EnergySharareh Taghipour, Ryerson UniversitySoumaya Yacout, École Polytechnique, MontrealW.T. Kary Chien, Worldwide Semiconductor

Manufacturing Corp.Wilkistar Otieno, University of Wisconsin–MilwaukeeYiming Deng, University of Colorado, Denver

PARTICIPATING ORGANIZATIONS

AggrekoARES CorporationBAE SystemsCrow Reliability ResourcesFederal Communications CommissionFederal University Wukari, NIGERIAFCA US LLCGeneral Dynamics Land SystemGenpactHartford Steam Boiler Inspection & Insurance Co.James Madison UniversityKimiaPower PLLCAccentureLockheed-MartinMAB ConsultantsMillennium Engineering and Integration Co.NASANASA - JPLNortekNorth Dakota State UniversityRaytheon CompanyReliaTrainRDECOM TARDECRutgers UniversityScien-Tech AssociatesSierra Nevada CorporationThe Ford Motor CompanyThoratec CorporationTLF AssociatesU.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionUCLAUniv. of South FloridaUniversity of ArkansasUniversity of DaytonUS Department of DefenseUTC Aerospace SystemsVassiliou VenturesVirginia Tech

RAMS® ORGANIZATION (cont.)

©Disney

Sorcerer’s Apprentice Ballroom

Sorcerer’s Apprentice Lobby

Sorcerer’sApprenticeCourtyard

DISNEY’S CONTEMPORARY RESORT – MAIN LEVEL

34

2019MEETING ROOMS

Fantasia Ballroom, Meeting Rooms Sourcerer's Apprentice Meeting Rooms

SOCIETY OF RELIABILITYENGINEERS

THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM SAFETY SOCIETY

Reliability & RiskDivision

PATRONS

SPONSORS

RAMS® and the RAMS® logo are Registered Trademarks of IEEECover Graphic: www.hedi-label.com • Data entry and layout: BDJdesign

2019

the 65th annual reliability & maintainability symposium ...€¦ · an excursion tour of the...

Documents