thayer cambodia and vietnam strategic situation

8/14/2019 Thayer Cambodia and Vietnam Strategic Situation

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Cambodia Vietnam


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Khmer (90%)

Vietnamese (86%)

Ethnic minorities overlap

Cambodia-Vietnam border

Khmer Krom

Ethnic Vietnamese in

CambodiaVietnamese (Hoa people)

in China


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Geo-Strategic Setting

Cambodia

Borders with Vietnam,Laos and Thailand

Asymmetric powerrelations with twoneighbours

Maritime disputeswith Thailand and

Vietnam impact ondevelopment

Vietnam

Borders with China,Laos and Cambodia

Asymmetric powerrelations with oneneighbour

Maritime disputeswith China and

Cambodia impact ondevelopment


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Ge

o-strate

gicsetting


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Border protectionTerritorial integrityInternal securityand stabilityReform of RCAF


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Exchange of Defence Ministers(2003 and 2006)

IMETPresident Ngueyn Minh Triet meetsPresident Bush at the White House2007

US Navy port visits


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December 1999 LandBorder Agreement

227 sq. km disputed area

China received 114 sq km

Vietnam received 113 sq km

Aim complete demarcationby end 2008

Reach new bordermanagement agreementend of 2008


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Gulf of Tonkin

Agreements on maritime

boundary demarcationand fisheries (December

2000)

Agreements ratifiedJune 2004

April and December

2006 joint naval patrols

Beibu Gulf


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Type 094SSBN


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Mekong

Basin Sub-

region

Cambodia

and Vietnam

are downstream

states

affected by

up stream

develop-ments

Yunan

province


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China plans a

cascade of eight

dams. Twoalready built, twounder con-

struction and

four to be built.Dams are

entirely withinChina without

consultation with

downstreamstates.


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CAMBODIA

Monarchy 1993 Constitution:

neutral and non-

aligned Coalition government One-party dominant

Cambodian Peoples

Party (CPP) Ideology diluted

VIETNAM

Anti-imperialists v-integrationists

Peaceful evolution National interests Fear of lagging

behind

rich people, strongcountry

Comprehensiveintegration


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Party/

Position CommuneChiefs 1st Deputy

Chiefs

2nd Deputy

Chiefs

Council

membersTotal

CPP 1591 1125 185 5092 7993SRP 28 403 963 1266 2660FUNCINPEC 2 47 155 70 274NRP 0 46 317 62 425Two plausible outcomes: (1) authoritarian rule by entrenched

CPP (2) loosening of system to become more pluralist.


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thayer cambodia and vietnam strategic situation

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