thai politics, economy and foreign policy

7/31/2019 Thai Politics, Economy and Foreign Policy

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Thai Politics, Economy,and Foreign Policy

- A Brief Introduction -

Dr. Kitti Prasirtsuk

Thammasat University


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Thai Politics


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Thaksin Thailand

(2001-2006)
http://th.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B8%A0%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%9E:Thaksin_Time.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/th/e/ed/Trtp-logo.jpg


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What has happened?

Controversy around Thaksin (2005 - ?)

esp. after the 2006 coup

Antt-Thaksin Camp vs. Pro-Thaksin Camp

Never-ending protests

Violence

** People are divided in the protracted

conflicts.


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The Yellow Shirts

PAD: Peoples

Alliance

for Democracy


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The Red Shirts: United Front forDemocracy against Dictatorship (UDD)


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The Yellows went beyond limit.


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The Red Rampage


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The Reds turned nasty:

The April Riot 2009


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Why it happened?Multi-dimensional conflicts

The Reds vs. The Yellows

Pro-Thaksin Camp vs. Anti-Thaksin Camp

Countryside vs. Cities

Poor vs. middle-class

North / Northeast vs. South / Bangkok

Pro-efficiency vs. Pro-integrity

* elite-centered / centralization socialconfrontation

** so far, no big shock in Thailand now real

transition?


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Current Political Map

Pro-Thaksin Camp

New Capitalists

GrassrootsPeople from the

North and

Northeast

Anti-Thaksin Camp

Military/Bureaucracy

Old CapitalistsMiddle Class

Southern People

Most media

Most scholars


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Current Trends

Cleavages among the Anti-Thaksin Camp:

Democrat Party, Thai Pride Party, Military,

The Yellow Shirts (PAD)

Conflicts over Constitutional Revision

Problems with Cambodia

More people became neutral.** But the Reds are now stepping up their

anti-govt campaign after the courts verdict

on partial confiscation of Thaksins assets.


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Thaksin

Chavalit

Sondhi

Prem

Abhisit

Veera

Nevin

AnuphongPrawit

Jatuporn

Pallop

Nattawut


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The Thai Economy


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Basic ASEAN Indicators

Source: ASEAN Secretariat, as of 17 July 2009

km2 thousand

persons per

km2 percent US$ million US$ PPP

3/

2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008

Brunei Darus 5,765 397 69 1.8 14,146.7 50,234.8

Indonesia 1,860,360 228,523 123 1.3 511,174.4 3,705.0

Malaysia 330,252 27,863 84 2.3 222,673.6 13,192.1

The Philippin 300,000 90,457 302 2.1 166,772.8 3,421.1

Singapore 707 4,839 6,844 5.5 184,120.4 50,347.1

Thailand 513,120 66,482 130 0.7 273,666.1 7,889.7

Cambodia 181,035 14,656 81 2.0 11,081.6 1,794.0

Lao PDR 236,800 5,763 24 2.8 5,289.0 2,237.3

Myanmar 676,577 58,510 86 1.7 27,182.0 1,082.9

Viet Nam 331,212 86,160 260 1.2 90,700.8 2,595.2

ASEAN 4,435,827 583,651 132 1.5 1,506,807.4 5,007.1

Country

Total land

area

Total

population1/

Population

density1/

Annual

population

growth1/

Gross domestic

product2/

at current prices

Gross domestic

product

per capitaat current prices


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More Info on Thai Economy

Thai poor 8.5% (5.4 million)

Tourists 1.6 million in 2009

Export-dependent rate 70%


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GDP Breakdown


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Export Breakdowns

Hi-tech includes machinery (13%), electronics (10%),

vehicle (8.7%), electrical appl.(8%)


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Good Newsabout Thai Economy

- Global economy shows some

improvement sign.

- Thai Strength Projects: 800 billon Baht- Unemployment rate only 1.8% (400,000)

- 2009: only -3% growth

- 2010: +3.5% growth estimated + 14%

export increase


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Bad News

about Thai Economy

- Consumer confidence and private

investment remain low.

- Continuing political crisis


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3 Possible Scenarios

1. Slow economic recovery + escalated anti-

govt movement + coalition cleavages parliament dissolution

2. Swift economic recovery + exhausted anti-

govt movement the current coalition govt

survives

3. Massive riots another coup


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Thai Foreign Policy


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General Positions

Good neighborly policy / ASEAN

Alliance with the U.S.

Balanced engagement with major powers

Friends with all

** Bamboo Diplomacy


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Foreign Policy during Thaksin

Less ASEAN-centered

Quest for regional leadership:

- Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD)- Ayeyawadee - Chao Phraya - Mekong EconomicCooperation Strategy (ACMECS)Multiple FTAs

Personal relations with neighboring

countries, esp. Cambodia, Myanmar


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Current Foreign Policy

ASEAN-centered

More formal relations with neighbors

Human rights emphasis

FTA consolidation

Connectivity

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