Download - Thai Politics, Economy and Foreign Policy
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Thai Politics, Economy,and Foreign Policy
- A Brief Introduction -
Dr. Kitti Prasirtsuk
Thammasat University
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Thai Politics
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Thaksin Thailand
(2001-2006)
http://th.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B8%A0%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%9E:Thaksin_Time.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/th/e/ed/Trtp-logo.jpg -
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What has happened?
Controversy around Thaksin (2005 - ?)
esp. after the 2006 coup
Antt-Thaksin Camp vs. Pro-Thaksin Camp
Never-ending protests
Violence
** People are divided in the protracted
conflicts.
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The Yellow Shirts
PAD: Peoples
Alliance
for Democracy
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The Red Shirts: United Front forDemocracy against Dictatorship (UDD)
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The Yellows went beyond limit.
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The Red Rampage
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The Reds turned nasty:
The April Riot 2009
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Why it happened?Multi-dimensional conflicts
The Reds vs. The Yellows
Pro-Thaksin Camp vs. Anti-Thaksin Camp
Countryside vs. Cities
Poor vs. middle-class
North / Northeast vs. South / Bangkok
Pro-efficiency vs. Pro-integrity
* elite-centered / centralization socialconfrontation
** so far, no big shock in Thailand now real
transition?
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Current Political Map
Pro-Thaksin Camp
New Capitalists
GrassrootsPeople from the
North and
Northeast
Anti-Thaksin Camp
Military/Bureaucracy
Old CapitalistsMiddle Class
Southern People
Most media
Most scholars
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Current Trends
Cleavages among the Anti-Thaksin Camp:
Democrat Party, Thai Pride Party, Military,
The Yellow Shirts (PAD)
Conflicts over Constitutional Revision
Problems with Cambodia
More people became neutral.** But the Reds are now stepping up their
anti-govt campaign after the courts verdict
on partial confiscation of Thaksins assets.
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Thaksin
Chavalit
Sondhi
Prem
Abhisit
Veera
Nevin
AnuphongPrawit
Jatuporn
Pallop
Nattawut
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The Thai Economy
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Basic ASEAN Indicators
Source: ASEAN Secretariat, as of 17 July 2009
km2 thousand
persons per
km2 percent US$ million US$ PPP
3/
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Brunei Darus 5,765 397 69 1.8 14,146.7 50,234.8
Indonesia 1,860,360 228,523 123 1.3 511,174.4 3,705.0
Malaysia 330,252 27,863 84 2.3 222,673.6 13,192.1
The Philippin 300,000 90,457 302 2.1 166,772.8 3,421.1
Singapore 707 4,839 6,844 5.5 184,120.4 50,347.1
Thailand 513,120 66,482 130 0.7 273,666.1 7,889.7
Cambodia 181,035 14,656 81 2.0 11,081.6 1,794.0
Lao PDR 236,800 5,763 24 2.8 5,289.0 2,237.3
Myanmar 676,577 58,510 86 1.7 27,182.0 1,082.9
Viet Nam 331,212 86,160 260 1.2 90,700.8 2,595.2
ASEAN 4,435,827 583,651 132 1.5 1,506,807.4 5,007.1
Country
Total land
area
Total
population1/
Population
density1/
Annual
population
growth1/
Gross domestic
product2/
at current prices
Gross domestic
product
per capitaat current prices
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More Info on Thai Economy
Thai poor 8.5% (5.4 million)
Tourists 1.6 million in 2009
Export-dependent rate 70%
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GDP Breakdown
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Export Breakdowns
Hi-tech includes machinery (13%), electronics (10%),
vehicle (8.7%), electrical appl.(8%)
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Good Newsabout Thai Economy
- Global economy shows some
improvement sign.
- Thai Strength Projects: 800 billon Baht- Unemployment rate only 1.8% (400,000)
- 2009: only -3% growth
- 2010: +3.5% growth estimated + 14%
export increase
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Bad News
about Thai Economy
- Consumer confidence and private
investment remain low.
- Continuing political crisis
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3 Possible Scenarios
1. Slow economic recovery + escalated anti-
govt movement + coalition cleavages parliament dissolution
2. Swift economic recovery + exhausted anti-
govt movement the current coalition govt
survives
3. Massive riots another coup
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Thai Foreign Policy
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General Positions
Good neighborly policy / ASEAN
Alliance with the U.S.
Balanced engagement with major powers
Friends with all
** Bamboo Diplomacy
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Foreign Policy during Thaksin
Less ASEAN-centered
Quest for regional leadership:
- Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD)- Ayeyawadee - Chao Phraya - Mekong EconomicCooperation Strategy (ACMECS)Multiple FTAs
Personal relations with neighboring
countries, esp. Cambodia, Myanmar
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Current Foreign Policy
ASEAN-centered
More formal relations with neighbors
Human rights emphasis
FTA consolidation
Connectivity