texas’ economic, labor market, economic, labor market, and fiscal situation vance ... job...
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Texas’ Economic, Labor Market,
and Fiscal Situation
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.Economist, Center for Fiscal Policy
Updated Monthly – May 2017
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.texaspolicy.com
Twitter: @vanceginn
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Outline
Information about the state of Texas’ economy, labor market, and fiscal situation.
Updated monthly to include the latest jobs data and periodically when other economic and fiscal data are updated.
Conservative Texas Budget Coalition’s key priorities for the 2017 Session to promote prosperity.
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Economic & Fiscal Challenges to Prosperity
11th largest world economy possibly hampered by:Slower global economic growthFederal Reserve tightening credit: rates too low for too longLow oil prices (~15% of real private economy/+20% in 80s)First major recession in 30+ years? Unlikely in near term
Revenue picture tighter in 2017 Session than previous
Fortunately, 2015 Texas Legislature:Passed a conservative 2016-17 budget: 4.3% increaseLeft billions of dollars on table & $10 B in Rainy Day Fund Passed $4 B in tax and fee relief
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Economic Opportunity to Prosper is Key:
Texas Model Leads the Way
Source: TPPF, A Labor Market Comparison: Why the Texas Model Supports Prosperity (updated)
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Texas, America’s Jobs Engine
DATA ARE CUMULATIVE MONTHLY TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT FROM
THE U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS FROM 12/2007 TO 4/2017.
Texas has created 27% of total U.S. employment increase since pre-Great Recession
TEXAS: +1,875,000
U.S. MINUS TEXAS: +5,009,000
-8,500,000
-7,000,000
-5,500,000
-4,000,000
-2,500,000
-1,000,000
500,000
2,000,000
3,500,000
5,000,000
12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016
TOTA
LC
IVIL
IAN
EMP
LOYM
ENT
N
U.S. minus Texas civilian employment wasn’t positive until January 2015 and didn’t surpass Texas until November 2015.
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Texas has Created 22% of All Nonfarm
Jobs Since Great Recession Started
DATA ARE CUMULATIVE MONTHLY TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT FROM
THE U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS FROM 12/2007 TO 4/2017.
TEXAS: +1,686,000
U.S. MINUS TEXAS: +5,964,000
-8,500,000
-7,000,000
-5,500,000
-4,000,000
-2,500,000
-1,000,000
500,000
2,000,000
3,500,000
5,000,000
12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016
TOTA
LN
ON
FAR
MEM
PLO
YMEN
T
N
U.S. minus Texas nonfarm employment wasn’t positive until September 2014 and didn’t surpass Texas until March 2015.
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Texas Created 258,900 Net Nonfarm Jobs
During the Last 12 Months
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AN
NU
AL
NO
NFA
RM
JOB
GR
OW
THR
ATE
U.S.: 1.6% CA: 1.4%TX: 2.2% FL: 2.6%NY: 1.0%
APRIL 2017
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Texas' Unemployment Rate At or Below
5% for 34 Consecutive Months
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
UN
EMP
LOYM
ENT
RAT
E
U.S.: 4.4% CA: 4.8%
TX: 5.0% FL: 4.5%
NY: 4.3%
APRIL 2017
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Lower Unemployment Rates in Texas
Since Great Recession
Source: Dallas Fed, Less Involuntary Part-Time WorkSuggests Texas Economic Strength, Third Quarter 2016.
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Texas' Employed Population Rate
Remains Above Others
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EMP
LOYM
ENT-
PO
PU
LATI
ON
RAT
IO
U.S.: 60.2% CA: 59.1%
TX: 60.9% FL: 57.4%
NY: 58.3%
April 2017
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Texas’ Labor Force Participation Rate
Increasing Above Others
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LAB
OR
FOR
CE
PAR
TIC
IPAT
ION
RAT
E
U.S.: 62.9% CA: 62.1%TX: 64.1% FL: 60.2%NY: 61.0%
APRIL 2017
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Texas Job Creation was Positive in Most
Industries from 2014 to 2016
Source: Dallas Fed, Texas Economy Shifting Into Second Gear In 2017, First Quarter 2017.
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Texas’ Metro Areas had Relatively Strong
Job Creation Except Houston: 2014 to 2016
Source: Dallas Fed, Texas Economy Shifting Into Second Gear In 2017, First Quarter 2017.
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Texas has Smaller Share of Part-Time
Workers than Rest of U.S.
Source: Dallas Fed, Less Involuntary Part-Time WorkSuggests Texas Economic Strength, Third Quarter 2016.
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Not Just Low Wage Jobs: Job Growth
Across Wage Quartiles from 2005–2014
Source: Dallas Fed, Annual Report 2015
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Job Growth Across Wage Quartiles, 2000–14
Source: TPPF, A Labor Market Comparison: Why the Texas Model Supports Prosperity
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Economic Challenges
Mining industry 1980s:21% of real private economy; 5% of labor force
Mining industry today:15% of real private economy; 2% of labor force
More diversification from market activity, NAFTA, pro-growth policies
Still, lower oil prices, slower global growth, &federal government policies may be impediments
TX will one day have another recession
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Oil prod/day down only 8% in Texas since
March ‘15 high despite 55% drop in oil prices
Source: Energy Information Administration
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Future of Oil Prices Remain Uncertain
Source: Dallas Fed, Texas Economy Shifting Into Second Gear In 2017, First Quarter 2017.
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Fiscal Challenges Reduce Opportunity
No recent examples of consecutive conservative budgets, defined as growth less than the rate of population growth plus inflation:2003 dealt with a $10 billion shortfall and passed a
conservative budget but massive spending increase in 20052011 passed a budget below pop+inf but delayed payments
for Medicaid & education led to a large increase in 2013
2015 session passed a potentially conservative budget, provided tax relief, and left money on the table
Legislature should do so again in 2017
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Revenue Problem? More GR Available
Excluding Lege Priority on Transportation
Source: Texas Comptroller, Biennial Revenue Estimate
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Footprint of Government: Total Revenue
Estimated Up 7.5% Above 2016-17 Approps
Source: Texas Comptroller, Biennial Revenue Estimate
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Comptroller’s Estimates in
Biennial Revenue Estimate
2016-17 CRE: about $4 B expected surplus for 16-172018-19 BRE: $1.5 B expected surplus for 16-178% Official Spending Limit by LBB
$ in ThousandsFY2016 (BRE)
ActualFY2017 (BRE)
EstimatedFY2018 (BRE)
EstimatedFY2019 (BRE)
Estimated
Real GDP 0.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.1%
Nonfarm Employment 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7%
Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5%
Taxable Oil Price $41.40 $47.73 $55.11 $59.26
Sales Tax $28,245,801 $28,804,754 $30,382,579 $31,805,615
Franchise Tax $3,881,176 $3,762,059 $3,865,293 $3,958,054
Total Tax Collections $48,476,226 $49,725,627 $52,249,825 $54,506,439
Total Net Revenue $111,280,871 $112,777,303 $112,793,648 $111,976,440
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Total 2016-17 All Funds Approps: $209.1 Billion
(4.3% increase)
$53.3 B, Other $77.2 B,
Health & Human Services
$78.6 B, Education
$68.0 B, Federal Funds
$106.0 B, General Revenue
$27.3 B, Other
$7.8 B, GR-Dedicated
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$124
$139
$167
$183 $185
$203 $209
$135
$146
$158
$168
$177
$187
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
$210
2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15* 2016-17*
Bil
lio
ns
All Funds Spending
Spending Adjusted for Population Growth and Inflation
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Rainy Day Fund May Be $10.2 billion:
No Need to Use it for Spending
Source: Legislative Budget Board and Leaky Umbrella
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Conservative Texas Budget Coalition:
Keys for the 2017 Legislative Session• Pass a conservative budget such that the 2018-19
budget increase is below pop+inf of 4.5%
• Eliminate the business margin tax
• Provide meaningful property tax reform
• Reform the state’s weak tax and expenditure limit
• Create the Sales Tax Reduction (STaR) Fund
• Increase budget transparency
Gov’t spending is ultimately paid for by taxation, so we must control spending to have the best opportunity for Texans to prosper.
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Taking these steps will secure the fact that
the American Dream is not dead – it has
simply moved to the Lone Star State.
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Texas’ Economic, Labor Market,
and Fiscal Situation
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
Economist, Center for Fiscal Policy
www.texaspolicy.com
@vanceginn