testing the big idea. decision making - by the book decision making is both science and art. many...
TRANSCRIPT
Testing the Big Idea
Decision Making - by the book
Decision making is both science and art. Many aspects of military operations - movement rates, fuel consumption, weapons effects - are quantifiable and, therefore, part of the science of war. Other aspects - the impact of leadership, complexity of operations, and uncertainty regarding enemy intentions - belong to the art of war.
• US Army Field Manual FM101-5, Staff Organization And Operations, 1997, Chapter 5
Time Appreciation
Have you got the time to do this thoroughly?
• Urgency• Scope• People• Resources
Idea Test
1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change
3. First filter - test the Hypothesis
4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal
5. Optimise the value of the Goal
6. Second filter - test the Goal
7. Plan to realise the Ends
8. Third filter - test the Goal
Start with the end in mind
Why did Nelson fight at Trafalgar?
It’s not only what you do, it’s also why you choose to do it
B) Use up the old gunpowder before its sell-by date
A) Destroy the French fleet and remove the threat of invasion
C) Impress Lady Hamilton
Answer: A (if you didn’t pick A you are not taking this seriously)
Endgame
• The game ends when:
a) You are checkmated, or
b) My King is in g3, my Queen is in c5, etc….
Idea Test
1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change
3. First filter - test the Hypothesis
4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal
5. Optimise the value of the Goal
6. Second filter - test the Goal
7. Plan to realise the Ends
8. Third filter - test the Goal
The measurable improvement resulting from an outcome perceived as an advantage by one or more stakeholders, which contributes towards one or more organisational objective(s).
APMG Managing Benefits 2012
A benefit is a result that a stakeholder perceives to be of value.
What is a benefit?
• Improve• Increase• Reduce• Eliminate• Stop
Features, Outcomes and Benefits
• Feature - my car is painted ‘Police Car’ white
• Outcome - people move over for me on the motorway so I get home for 6 pm
• Benefit - I get to watch The Simpsons on TV
Picking the right benefits
Tactical benefits – getting the donkey to move
Picking the right benefitsStrategic benefits – a cart full of valuable cargo
Key stakeholders’ benefits
Same project, different intentions
POWER, CONTROL!
LOOT, DRINK!
Stakeholder Analysis
•Who are the key stakeholders?•What will they gain/lose?
•What impact will they have upon your objectives?
Means – what you useWays – what you doEnds – What you want
Benefits Dependency
This is manageable
This is not
Idea Test
1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change
3. First filter - test the Hypothesis
4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal
5. Optimise the value of the Goal
6. Second filter - test the Goal
7. Plan to realise the Ends
8. Third filter - test the Goal
Pre-Mortem
A way to assess your risks• Set the scene, “It’s a year from now, we
ran the project and it all went wrong”.• Describe how and why it went wrong• See what you can do now to prevent this
happening.
Original idea by Gary Klein, quoted in Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
David Waller
07780 533876
www.keldale.com
www.goalmodelling.com
www.hivemindnetwork.com