technology forum - steve nadel
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Center for Energy and Environment
Technology Forum Steven Nadel, Executive Director
American Council for an Energy-
Efficient Economy
Energy Efficiency:
Present and Future June 2014
American Council for an
Energy-Efficient Economy
• Non-profit research organization
• Founded in 1980
• Now have 50 staff and $8 million/year budget
• Funding comes from foundations,
government agencies, contracts,
conferences & corporate
memberships
U.S. Energy Use in Relation to GDP 1970-2012
Energy Efficiency: America’s Greatest Energy Resource US Energy Resources used in 2011
Electricity Use Declining
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bill
ion R
eal $
TW
h
Electricity GDP
Source: ACEEE, 2014, “Why is Electricity
Use No Longer Growing”
Efficiency a Significant Cause Factors affecting Residential & Commercial sales 2007-2012
Source: ACEEE, 2014, “Why is Electricity Use No Longer Growing”
* Statistically
significant
Rela
tive Im
pact
on k
Wh p
er
capita
2013 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard Results
Minnesota’s Scores
Area Score Notes
Utilities 15/20 Tied for 5th; lose 3.5 points on budgets, 1 point for electric
savings, ½ point for lack of electric decoupling
Transportation 2/9 Tied for 24th; lose 2 points each for GHG tailpipe
standards, integration of transportation and land-use
planning and VMT targets
Building energy
codes
3/7 Tied for 43rd; lose 3 points for stringency (does not yet use
2009 codes), 1 point for compliance
Combined heat &
power
1/5 Tied for 27th; lose 1 point for incentives and ½ point each
for interconnection, RPS/EERS treatment, net metering,
emissions & financing
State govt, initiatives 4.5/7 Tied for 11th; lose 1 point each for building energy
disclosure and R&D, ½ point for financial incentives
Appliance stds. 0/2 Have no recent state standards
Electric Savings of Leading States
State
2011 Net
Incremental
Savings
(MWh)
% of 2011
Retail Sales
Preliminary
% of 2012
Retail Sales
Vermont 117,940 2.12% 2.23%
Massachusetts 789,894 1.43% 1.83%
Arizona 1,028,378 1.38% 1.66%
California 3,399,300 1.35% NA
Connecticut 394,266 1.32% 1.09%
Hawaii 130,108 1.31% NA
New York 1,791,302 1.25% NA
Rhode Island 96,009 1.25% 1.56%
Ohio 1,880,629 1.22% NA
Minnesota 818,512 1.21% 1.20%
Maine 120,211 1.05% 1.36%
Iowa 475,964 1.04% NA
Pennsylvania 1,553,739 1.04% NA
Michigan 1,000,437 1.00% 1.12%
Oregon 465,211 0.99% 0.99%
Maryland 397,748 0.58% 1.12%
Levelized costs of new electricity resource options For 2012
13 Source: ACEEE and Lazard Associates
Natural Gas Efficiency, 2020 Northwest Regional
Supply Curve
Source: NW Energy 2009
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
OH
GA
AL
PA
NC
FL
IN
WV
VA
SC
TN
MI
IL
WI
KY
MS
MD
NJ
NV
MO
IA
TX
CO
Announced Coal Retirements (MW) Ripe for Retirement (but not announced) (MW)
TOTAL ANNOUNCED FROM THESE STATES = >35 GW
TOTAL ANNOUNCED AND "RIPE" = > 88 GW
Source: http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_energy/Ripe-for-Retirement-Full-
Report.pdf
Possible Coal Plant Retirements
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists
Potential Energy Savings From Energy Efficiency Minnesota
Source: Hayes, S. et al. 2014. Change Is in the Air: How States Can Harness Energy Efficiency to Strengthen the
Economy and Reduce Pollution. Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.
http://aceee.org/research-report/e1401
Possible “Next Big Things” for Energy Efficiency
• “Intelligent efficiency” – smart buildings, smart
manufacturing
• Improvements in new homes and appliances, leveraging
codes & standards
• Advanced lighting design
• Strategic energy management for large customers
(continuous improvement)
Opportunities for Future Code
Improvements
Advanced Lighting Design
Next Big Things (continued)
• Combined heat and power systems
• High-efficiency plug loads
• Existing building retrofits (often staged)
• Industrial process improvements
• Advanced thermostats (e.g. Nest)
• High efficiency commercial rooftop AC
• Chiller replacements and optimization
Combined Heat & Power
• Higher efficiency than power
plants when have uses for heat :
• Factories
• Large institutions
• Lower natural gas prices make
more attractive
• Interest in critical facilities post-
Sandy
“Other” Loads With Large Savings
Item TWh Saved from Upgrading Current Stock
to the Best
Televisions 62
Distribution transformers 47
PC’s 45
Ceiling fans 24
Computer monitors 18
Walk-in refrigeration 16
Set-top boxes 14
Video game consoles 9
DVD & Blu-ray players 8
Microwaves 8
Fume hoods 7
Computer servers 6
Source: Kwatra, ACEEE, 2013
iMac ME086 24 kWh/yr
LG 42”, 75 kWh/yr
Empire State Building Retrofit –
38% energy savings
On-Bill Financing Five programs account for >90% of the volume
Source: LBL/SEE Action May 2014 report
Next Big Things (continued)
• Providing actionable real-time info on energy use to
consumers
• Improved air and duct sealing
• Advanced water heaters – condensing and heat
pump
• Conservation voltage reduction
• LED lighting
ACEEE Utility of the Future Study
• Prepared several scenarios by region – might there
be a “death spiral”?
• Reviewed more than 50 studies and identified and
assessed19 options
• Make recommendations for the short, medium and
long terms
Electricity Sale Scenarios Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO) West
(MN, IA, NB, SD, ND)
Midwest Reliability Organization West Medium-high-change scenario
Midwest Reliability Organization West High-change scenario
Other Key Findings
• If sales don’t increase, utilities need to look for
other ways to grow profits
• Optional services such as EE, EV charging, CHP and
community-scale PV, using their existing expertise
• EE low-cost resource and valued by customers
• Be careful investing too much in new generation
and T&D
• Some will be needed, but prioritize
Conclusions
• Minnesota is close to the leaders, but needs to do
more
• Utility industry is changing – declining growth,
111(d), growing EE, PV and DG
• Energy efficiency is a critical service to keep power
prices in check and provide services customers
want
• Many potential big EE saving measures that
utilities, manufacturers, service providers and end-
users should pursue
Contact Information
Steven Nadel
202-507-4000
www.aceee.org