technology forecasting and planning
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Technology forecasting and planning. Draft the technology roadmap & Invest strategically. Scanning before forecasting & planning. Strategic technology planning. Forecasting technology Analyze and diagnose the environment - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Technology forecasting and planning
Draft the technology roadmap & Invest strategically
Scanning before forecasting & planning
Strategic technology planning
Forecasting technology Analyze and diagnose the environment Analyze and predict the market and
customer trend and change of trend Analyze the internal organization Sketch the vision & mission Re-design the organizational structure and
activity Execute the plan through operations
Output of planning A process of top-down & bottom-up dialogue
Decision alternatives—courses of action Proposed schema—key entities & relations Budgeting for R&D, marketing & production Distribution criteria for appropriate proportions
Long-term: basic research for breakthrough, applied research based on a specific purpose, pioneering or experimental design & development of 1st stage R&D
Short-term: 2nd R&D on the fabrication, 3rd stage on the commercial design, module manufacturing
S-curved technology evolution
time
Perfo
rmanc
e
current
Future trends
Continuity/Discontinuity of technology
Perfo
rmance
S2
S1
t1 t2 t3
Migration possi
bility
& migratio
n route
The key attributes in technology forecasting
Performance growth Complexity, efficiency, capacity, size, accuracy,
compactness Substitution possibility & speed, paradigm
shift or trajectory evolution Penetration share Diffusion rate
Allergy, deviation, enforcement, self-reinforcement
Breakthrough possibility & timing Value cluster
Critical technologies Categories
Material Advanced manufacturing Information & communication Biotech & living science Aerospace & transportation Energy & environmental ecology
User dimensions National critical technologies—long-term basic
research Business/commercial emerging technologies DOD’s Defense critical technology—specific
purposes and outer-space exploration
Technology forecasting methods
Surveillance Scan the environment and link to the source of innovation for
quick adjustment & adoption Expert opinions
Use the Delphi method to converge the common focus/foci Trend analysis
Trace the time-series data and identify the evolutionary pattern and the driving forces
Modeling Articulate a forecasting function composed several critical
influencers Scenario analysis
Preview possible events and evolution patterns
Japan technology forecasts based on the Delphi method
Japan technology forecasts for core technologies
Technology road map
Time horizontal evolution Technological relatedness Application extension
e.g., Technology road map of mobile standard evolution
3G2.5G2G
cdmaOneIS-95A
cdmaOneIS-95A
GSMGSM
IS-95BIS-95B
PHSPHS
CDMA2000 1x IS-95C
CDMA2000 1x IS-95C
GPRSGPRS
HSCSDHSCSD
EDGEEDGE
WCDMAWCDMA
CDMA2000 1x EV DO
CDMA2000 1x EV DO
PDC-PPDC-P
PDCPDC
較少演化路徑主要演化路徑
CDMA2000 1x EV DV
CDMA2000 1x EV DV
e.g., Technology road map of telecom services
高
高
低
低
資訊
豐富
度
固網市話 1G
2G
3G
ADSL Cable modem
WLAN
VOIP
VOIP DIY資訊
Wi-Max
移動性
Technology landscape Scanning the important technology entities
Matter Energy Information
Mobility/Input
e.g., mega magents enhance the asorbability of tiny molecule
e.g., mega magents accelerate the friction-less transmission
e.g., mega magents trace micro magnetic particle sensitively
transformation
e.g., mega magents enhance plastic deformation
e.g., mega magents promote the efficiency of micro-motor
e.g., mega magents facilitate the change of electricity/ microwave into voice
Storage/ output
e.g., mega magents facilitate the refrigeration
e.g., mega magents possess energy durably
e.g., mega magents support MO disk for large volume of data
Technology audit model
1. Technology environment2. Technology classification3. Analyze the market and customer4. Evaluate the innovation process5. Analyze the value-added activity6. Analyze the technology pool &
technology acquisition
Technology environment
1. Leadership for technology championship & pioneering research
2. Phase with the business strategy3. Organizational level 4. Culture of learning, communication
and innovation 5. Staffing system for innovation
incentive
Technology classification
1. Product/process technology Internal/external source, base/core,
changes
2. Back-office technology Internal/external technologies of
administration, supporting, and logistics
3. Marketing technology Marketing systems Integrative communication of product &
service
Analyze the market and customer
1. Market requirement Assess the market
growth/capacity/segments Evaluate the marketing performance
2. Competitor position Strength/weakness comparison Benchmarking
Evaluate the innovation process
1. Idea formation Intrepreneurship Entrepreneurship
2. Technology generation Technology push—technology inspiration Market pull—market insight
3. Idea fulfillment Time to market, break-even point
Analyze the value-added activity
1. R&D Team management, investment portfolio, risk
management, experience effect, synergy effect
2. Operation Production/marketing enhancement
3. Environmentalism Investigate user’s behavior of product
disposal Green product & continuous business concept
Analyze the technology pool & technology acquisition
1. Acquisition methods and performance Internal development External reciprocate collaboration in
research/production/marketing Investment in the stick share
2. Technology transfer Transfer procedures Internal/external staff rotation Explicit/implicit dimension of know-how
3. Profit exploitation Sunk cost analysis Technology archive
4. Technology protection Assess the IPR regime
Planning according to TLC
time
Perfo
rmanc
e
current
Selective
divestment
emerging growing mature decline
surveillance
Selective
investment
Syste
mic
establis
h
Core
technology
Base
technology
Phase-in
technology
Integration of business strategy & technology strategy
Business segment & position
Technology segment & position
Strategy audit
Reviewing Business
environment
Reviewing Technolog
y environme
nt
Impacted
business
Impacted
technology
Strategic alternative formation
Strategic choice & resource
deployment
Strategy execution
Strategic control
B-tech approach
The role of CTO Forecast technology and analyze the
business goals Develop the corporate technology capability Maintain the sustainable profit and creativity
of technology portfolio Develop informal and formal alliance
network of technology Execute technology auditing Technology transfer and protection As a technology gatekeeper for anti-leakage
of technology and proactive acquisition
ASSETS structured thinking about technology
Assess current situation gap analysis
Specify technology strategy Expected future
Select technology portfolio Prioritize the candidates
Execute technology investments Establish the task force
Transfer results for deployment Configuration for profit
Secure long-term position Evaluation and learning for capability
Extended readings Van Wyk, Rias J. (1997), “Strategic Technology
Scanning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 55, pp.21-38.
Van Wyk, Rias J., G. Haour, and S. G. Japp (1991), “Permanent Magnets: A Technological Analysis,” R&D Management, Vol.21, No. 4, pp.301-308.
Mahajan, Vijay and Robert A. Peterson (1985), Models for Innovation Diffusion, Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Sage University Press.