technology-driven disruptions in the near future
TRANSCRIPT
“Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future”
Village Viewpoints LectureRancho Santa Fe
April 24, 2016
Dr. Larry SmarrDirector, California Institute for Telecommunications and
Information TechnologyHarry E. Gruber Professor,
Dept. of Computer Science and EngineeringJacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
Calit2 is a Framework for “Living in the Future” of the Digital Transformation of Society
The California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology
Calit2’s Qualcomm Institute @UCSD
Calit2@UCI
If You Are Planning New Applications and Services On a Ten Year Horizon,It Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade…
One Decade
www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png
From One Million to One Billion UsersIn Less Than 8 Years!
www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com
DEC 2004
The Scale of the Web Today:“You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion”
• Facebook– One Billion Active Users
• YouTube– 4 Billion Hours of Video Watched Each Month
• Google– Over One Billion Searches Every Day
• Apple– 15 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year
• Smartphones– 1 Billion Active Users
The Global Planetary ComputerPowers These Disruptions
The Computing Power to Make a Single Google SearchIs More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth
For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program!
http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html
Forty Years of Computing Gravitational Waves From Colliding Black Holes
40 Years
From the First Computation of Black Hole Collisions to DetectionSaw Supercomputers Increase One Billion-Fold in Speed!
1977
L. Smarr and K. EppleyGravitational Radiation Computed
from an Axisymmetric Black Hole Collision
40 Years
2016
LIGO ConsortiumSpiral Black Hole Collision
MegaFLOPS One Billion MegaFLOPS
The Data-Intensive Discovery Era Requires High Performance Cyberinfrastructure
• Growth of Digital Data is Exponential– “Data Tsunami”
• Shared-Internet Optimized forMegabyte-Size Consumer Data Objects
• Need Dedicated Optical Network for Gigabyte/Terabyte Science Data Objects
Source: SDSC
Creating a UC San Diego “Big Data Freeway” SystemConnecting Instruments, Computers, & Storage
Phil Papadopoulos, PILarry Smarr co-PI
UCSD’s 30,000 Shared Internet Users
Run Over One 10,000 Megabit/sec Fiber
We Are Giving that Same Bandwidth
to Each Big Data User
Next Step: The Pacific Research Platform Creates a Regional End-to-End Science-Driven “Big Data Freeway System”
NSF CC*DNI Grant$5M 10/2015-10/2020
PI: Larry Smarr, UC San Diego Calit2
Bringing the West Coast Big Data Instruments,
Computers, and Storage Into One Room
Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco and other colleagues
NCAR Upgrading to 10Gbps Link from Wyoming and Boulder to CENIC/PRP
Sponsors: California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program California DWR, DOE, NSF
Planning for climate change in California substantial shifts on top of already high climate variability
UCSD Campus Climate Researchers Need to Download Results from NCAR Remote Supercomputer Simulations
to Make Regional Climate Change Forecasts
average summer afternoon temperatureaverage summer afternoon temperature
Downscaling Supercomputer Climate SimulationsTo Provide High Res Predictions for California Over Next 50 Years
12Source: Hugo Hidalgo, Tapash Das, Mike Dettinger
Next Generation Telescopes Will Integrate Fiber Optics and Supercomputers
On-Line in Five Years,Tracks ~40B Objects,
Creates 10M Alerts/NightWithin 1 Minute of Observing
2x40Gbps
NCSA Supercomputer
PacificCity
Neptune Canada
45°N
47°30’N
130°W 127°30’W
N
Seattle
Portland
Axial Volcano
NSF’s Ocean Observatory Initiative Has Funded Fiber Optic Sensornets on Seafloor Off Washington
San Diego
Sea BottomElectro-optical Cable:
8,000 Volts10 Gbps Optics
Slide Courtesy, John Delaney, UWash
Being There - Remote Live High Definition Videoof Deep Sea Hydrothermal Vents
http://novae.ocean.washington.edu/story/Ashes_CAMHD_Live
Mushroom Hydrothermal Vent on Axial Seamount
1 Mile Below Sea Level
Picture Created From 40 HD Frames
14 Minutes Live VideoOn-Line Every 3 Hours
15 feet
Slide Courtesy, John Delaney, UWash
Cancer Genomics Hub (UCSC) is Housed in SDSC:Large Data Flows to End Users at UCSC, UCB, UCSF, …
1G
8G
Data Source: David Haussler, Brad Smith, UCSC
15GJan 2016
Cancer Genomics Hub Users are Downloading 30,000 TB per Year
GE’s Industrial Internet Generates 10,000 TB per Day! 30,000 TBPer Year
Example: From One to a Billion Data Points Defining Me -The Exponential Rise in Body Data in Just One Decade
Billion: My Full DNA,MRI/CT Images
Million: My DNA SNPs,Zeo, FitBit
Hundred: My Blood VariablesOne: My WeightWeight
BloodVariables
SNPs
Microbial Genome
Wireless Monitoring Produced Time Series That Helped Me Improve My Health
Since Starting November 3, 2011Total Distance Tracked 5495 miles = Round Trip San Diego to Bangor, ME
Total Vertical Distance Climbed 176,560 ft. = 6x Mt. Everest
My Resting Heartrate Fell
from 70 to 40!
Elliptical
Walking
Sunday January 17, 2016137
42
I Decided to Track My Internal BiomarkersTo Understand My Body’s Dynamics
My Quarterly Blood DrawCalit2 64 Megapixel VROOM
A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades
Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body
and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes
that could lead to disease, cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches
could provide continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease
and making health care affordable for everyone.
ESSAYAn Evolution Toward a Programmable UniverseBy LARRY SMARRPublished: December 5, 2011
AI is Advancing at a Amazing Pace:Deep Learning Algorithms Working on Massive Datasets
1.5 Years!
Training on 30M Moves, Then Playing Against Itself
Deep Learning Will Provide Personalized Assistants to Each of Us
Where Personalized Coaching is Now
Where Personalized Coaching is Going
January 10, 2014
Large Scale Microscopy of Mammal BrainsReveals Complex Connectivity
NeuronCell Bodies
Neuronal DendriticOverlap Region
Source: Rat Cerebellum Image, Mark Ellisman, UCSD
Reverse Engineering of the Brain Is Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative
www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative
UC San Diego Creates Center for Brain Activity Mapping
http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/feature/uc_san_diego_creates_center_for_brain_activity_mapping
From left, Nick Spitzer, Ralph Greenspan, and Terry Sejnowski. Photos by Erik Jepsen/UC San Diego Publications
May 16, 2013
Should We Give Robots Autonomy?
This Next Decade’s Computing TransitionWill Not Be Just About Technology
"Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well-argued book." —Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society
If our own extinction is a likely, or even
possible, outcome of our technological
development, shouldn't we proceed with great
caution? – Bill Joy
Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. – Steven Hawking
One of the Most Important ArenasFor Development and Utilization of Robot Intelligence is Space Exploration
NASA’s Historic Era of Observationof the Solar System and Beyond
NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations DirectorateEarth, Moon, and Mars by 2035
The Shuttle Program Was Primarily Used to Build The International Space Station
Continuous Human OccupationSince November 2000
My Photo of the Last Shuttle LaunchAtlantis - July 8, 2011
135 Shuttle MissionsOver 11 Years
American Human Access to Space Has Been Entirely Dependent on Russian Launches Since July 2011
Soyuz Launch TMA-05 on July 15, 2012 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan
Delivering U.S., Japanese, and Russian Astronauts to ISS Expedition 32
Soyuz Capsule TMA-15Landing in Kazakhstan on June 11, 2015
Returning U.S., Italian, and Russian Astronauts from ISS Expedition 42
Commercial Cargo Launches to Resupply ISSare a Reality Today
Orbital Sciences Cygnus4 Successful, 1 Failure
Since Dec. 20, 2013
SpaceX’s Dragon7 Successful, 1 Failure
Since Oct. 8, 2012
SpaceX Manufacturing Facility is in Hawthorne, CAOne Million Square Feet!
Reuse of First Stage is Key to Bringing Costs Downfor Space Launching
Space X Failed Landing on Ocean Barge
Jan 10, 2015
Space X Successful Landing at Cape Canaveral
Dec 21, 2015
Space X Successful Landing on Ocean Barge
April 8, 2016
SpaceX’s Dragon Will Carry Crew to Orbit Next Year
Garrett Reisman,SpaceX Director of Crew Operations
Pad Abort TestMay 6, 2015
A Manned Boeing CST-100 Is Scheduled to Launch Next YearTo Send Crew to ISS as well as Bigelow Inflatable Habitats
Image credit: Boeing
“First flights to Mars? We're hoping to do that in around 2025 ... nine years from now or thereabouts.” –Elon Musk, 2016
A U.S. Public/Private Partnership is Birthing an Interplanetary Industrial Sector
Backed by James Cameron, Larry Page, Peter Diamandis, Richard Branson, et al.