technology-driven disruptions in the near future

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“Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future” Village Viewpoints Lecture Rancho Santa Fe April 24, 2016 Dr. Larry Smarr Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Harry E. Gruber Professor, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD

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Page 1: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

“Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future”

Village Viewpoints LectureRancho Santa Fe

April 24, 2016

Dr. Larry SmarrDirector, California Institute for Telecommunications and

Information TechnologyHarry E. Gruber Professor,

Dept. of Computer Science and EngineeringJacobs School of Engineering, UCSD

Page 2: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Calit2 is a Framework for “Living in the Future” of the Digital Transformation of Society

The California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology

Calit2’s Qualcomm Institute @UCSD

Calit2@UCI

Page 3: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

If You Are Planning New Applications and Services On a Ten Year Horizon,It Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade…

One Decade

www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png

From One Million to One Billion UsersIn Less Than 8 Years!

www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com

DEC 2004

Page 4: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

The Scale of the Web Today:“You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion”

• Facebook– One Billion Active Users

• YouTube– 4 Billion Hours of Video Watched Each Month

• Google– Over One Billion Searches Every Day

• Apple– 15 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year

• Smartphones– 1 Billion Active Users

Page 5: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

The Global Planetary ComputerPowers These Disruptions

The Computing Power to Make a Single Google SearchIs More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth

For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program!

http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html

Page 6: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Forty Years of Computing Gravitational Waves From Colliding Black Holes

40 Years

Page 7: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

From the First Computation of Black Hole Collisions to DetectionSaw Supercomputers Increase One Billion-Fold in Speed!

1977

L. Smarr and K. EppleyGravitational Radiation Computed

from an Axisymmetric Black Hole Collision

40 Years

2016

LIGO ConsortiumSpiral Black Hole Collision

MegaFLOPS One Billion MegaFLOPS

Page 8: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

The Data-Intensive Discovery Era Requires High Performance Cyberinfrastructure

• Growth of Digital Data is Exponential– “Data Tsunami”

• Shared-Internet Optimized forMegabyte-Size Consumer Data Objects

• Need Dedicated Optical Network for Gigabyte/Terabyte Science Data Objects

Source: SDSC

Page 9: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Creating a UC San Diego “Big Data Freeway” SystemConnecting Instruments, Computers, & Storage

Phil Papadopoulos, PILarry Smarr co-PI

UCSD’s 30,000 Shared Internet Users

Run Over One 10,000 Megabit/sec Fiber

We Are Giving that Same Bandwidth

to Each Big Data User

Page 10: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Next Step: The Pacific Research Platform Creates a Regional End-to-End Science-Driven “Big Data Freeway System”

NSF CC*DNI Grant$5M 10/2015-10/2020

PI: Larry Smarr, UC San Diego Calit2

Bringing the West Coast Big Data Instruments,

Computers, and Storage Into One Room

Page 11: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego

much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco and other colleagues

NCAR Upgrading to 10Gbps Link from Wyoming and Boulder to CENIC/PRP

Sponsors: California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program California DWR, DOE, NSF

Planning for climate change in California substantial shifts on top of already high climate variability

UCSD Campus Climate Researchers Need to Download Results from NCAR Remote Supercomputer Simulations

to Make Regional Climate Change Forecasts

Page 12: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

average summer afternoon temperatureaverage summer afternoon temperature

Downscaling Supercomputer Climate SimulationsTo Provide High Res Predictions for California Over Next 50 Years

12Source: Hugo Hidalgo, Tapash Das, Mike Dettinger

Page 13: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Next Generation Telescopes Will Integrate Fiber Optics and Supercomputers

On-Line in Five Years,Tracks ~40B Objects,

Creates 10M Alerts/NightWithin 1 Minute of Observing

2x40Gbps

NCSA Supercomputer

Page 14: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

PacificCity

Neptune Canada

45°N

47°30’N

130°W 127°30’W

N

Seattle

Portland

Axial Volcano

NSF’s Ocean Observatory Initiative Has Funded Fiber Optic Sensornets on Seafloor Off Washington

San Diego

Sea BottomElectro-optical Cable:

8,000 Volts10 Gbps Optics

Slide Courtesy, John Delaney, UWash

Page 15: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Being There - Remote Live High Definition Videoof Deep Sea Hydrothermal Vents

http://novae.ocean.washington.edu/story/Ashes_CAMHD_Live

Mushroom Hydrothermal Vent on Axial Seamount

1 Mile Below Sea Level

Picture Created From 40 HD Frames

14 Minutes Live VideoOn-Line Every 3 Hours

15 feet

Slide Courtesy, John Delaney, UWash

Page 16: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Cancer Genomics Hub (UCSC) is Housed in SDSC:Large Data Flows to End Users at UCSC, UCB, UCSF, …

1G

8G

Data Source: David Haussler, Brad Smith, UCSC

15GJan 2016

Cancer Genomics Hub Users are Downloading 30,000 TB per Year

GE’s Industrial Internet Generates 10,000 TB per Day! 30,000 TBPer Year

Page 17: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Example: From One to a Billion Data Points Defining Me -The Exponential Rise in Body Data in Just One Decade

Billion: My Full DNA,MRI/CT Images

Million: My DNA SNPs,Zeo, FitBit

Hundred: My Blood VariablesOne: My WeightWeight

BloodVariables

SNPs

Microbial Genome

Page 18: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Wireless Monitoring Produced Time Series That Helped Me Improve My Health

Since Starting November 3, 2011Total Distance Tracked 5495 miles = Round Trip San Diego to Bangor, ME

Total Vertical Distance Climbed 176,560 ft. = 6x Mt. Everest

My Resting Heartrate Fell

from 70 to 40!

Elliptical

Walking

Sunday January 17, 2016137

42

Page 19: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

I Decided to Track My Internal BiomarkersTo Understand My Body’s Dynamics

My Quarterly Blood DrawCalit2 64 Megapixel VROOM

Page 20: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades

Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body

and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes

that could lead to disease, cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches

could provide continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease

and making health care affordable for everyone.

ESSAYAn Evolution Toward a Programmable UniverseBy LARRY SMARRPublished: December 5, 2011

Page 21: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

AI is Advancing at a Amazing Pace:Deep Learning Algorithms Working on Massive Datasets

1.5 Years!

Training on 30M Moves, Then Playing Against Itself

Page 22: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Deep Learning Will Provide Personalized Assistants to Each of Us

Where Personalized Coaching is Now

Where Personalized Coaching is Going

January 10, 2014

Page 23: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Large Scale Microscopy of Mammal BrainsReveals Complex Connectivity

NeuronCell Bodies

Neuronal DendriticOverlap Region

Source: Rat Cerebellum Image, Mark Ellisman, UCSD

Page 24: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Reverse Engineering of the Brain Is Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative

www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative

Page 25: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

UC San Diego Creates Center for Brain Activity Mapping

http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/feature/uc_san_diego_creates_center_for_brain_activity_mapping

From left, Nick Spitzer, Ralph Greenspan, and Terry Sejnowski. Photos by Erik Jepsen/UC San Diego Publications

May 16, 2013

Page 26: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Should We Give Robots Autonomy?

Page 27: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

This Next Decade’s Computing TransitionWill Not Be Just About Technology

"Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well-argued book." —Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society

If our own extinction is a likely, or even

possible, outcome of our technological

development, shouldn't we proceed with great

caution? – Bill Joy

Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. – Steven Hawking

Page 28: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

One of the Most Important ArenasFor Development and Utilization of Robot Intelligence is Space Exploration

Page 29: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

NASA’s Historic Era of Observationof the Solar System and Beyond

Page 30: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations DirectorateEarth, Moon, and Mars by 2035

Page 31: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

The Shuttle Program Was Primarily Used to Build The International Space Station

Continuous Human OccupationSince November 2000

My Photo of the Last Shuttle LaunchAtlantis - July 8, 2011

135 Shuttle MissionsOver 11 Years

Page 32: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

American Human Access to Space Has Been Entirely Dependent on Russian Launches Since July 2011

Soyuz Launch TMA-05 on July 15, 2012 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan

Delivering U.S., Japanese, and Russian Astronauts to ISS Expedition 32

Soyuz Capsule TMA-15Landing in Kazakhstan on June 11, 2015

Returning U.S., Italian, and Russian Astronauts from ISS Expedition 42

Page 33: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Commercial Cargo Launches to Resupply ISSare a Reality Today

Orbital Sciences Cygnus4 Successful, 1 Failure

Since Dec. 20, 2013

SpaceX’s Dragon7 Successful, 1 Failure

Since Oct. 8, 2012

Page 34: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

SpaceX Manufacturing Facility is in Hawthorne, CAOne Million Square Feet!

Page 35: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

Reuse of First Stage is Key to Bringing Costs Downfor Space Launching

Space X Failed Landing on Ocean Barge

Jan 10, 2015

Space X Successful Landing at Cape Canaveral

Dec 21, 2015

Space X Successful Landing on Ocean Barge

April 8, 2016

Page 36: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

SpaceX’s Dragon Will Carry Crew to Orbit Next Year

Garrett Reisman,SpaceX Director of Crew Operations

Pad Abort TestMay 6, 2015

Page 37: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

A Manned Boeing CST-100 Is Scheduled to Launch Next YearTo Send Crew to ISS as well as Bigelow Inflatable Habitats

Image credit: Boeing

Page 38: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

“First flights to Mars? We're hoping to do that in around 2025 ... nine years from now or thereabouts.” –Elon Musk, 2016

 

Page 39: Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future

A U.S. Public/Private Partnership is Birthing an Interplanetary Industrial Sector

Backed by James Cameron, Larry Page, Peter Diamandis, Richard Branson, et al.