techno-economic analysis for the production of algal biomass - algae...
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NRELisanationallaboratoryoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy,operatedby theAllianceforSustainableEnergy,LLC.
Techno-Economic Analysis for the Production of Algal Biomass: Process, Design, and Cost Considerations for Future Commercial Algae Farms
Algae Biomass SummitOctober 24, 2016
Ryan Davis, Jennifer Markham, Christopher Kinchin, Nicholas Grundl
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
Intro: 2016 Algal Biomass Design Report
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• Projects goals to be achieved by 2022 and corresponding economics• Focused on open pond cultivation, given challenges in publicly
available cost/design details for PBRs (and widely varying PBR designs)
• PBR evaluation completed Sept. 2016• Primary value is the use of four independent but credible
sources for design and cost details for pond systems (key step of process)
• This approach shows significantly better agreement on what commercial pond systems should “actually” cost than typical statements made publicly
• Reduces uncertainty in underlying cost estimates, and highlights important economy of scale benefits
• Beyond base case, numerous sensitivity scenarios are considered• CO2 vs flue gas• Lined vs unlined ponds• Productivity vs cost• Alternative strains
• Includes consideration of sustainability metrics including GHG, fossil energy, and water profiles
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/64772.pdf
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Background: Large public disparities on algae costs
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Focusing only on open pond cultivation estimates from literature:• “Today’s” performance claims for algae:
• $280-$2,450/ton biomass, $2-$112/gal biofuels• 7-35 g/m2/day cultivation productivity (@ 330 day/yr uptime)
• “Future” goals:• $280-860/ton biomass, $2-$25/gal biofuels• 15-60 g/m2/day cultivation productivity (@ 330 day/yr uptime)
• Much of this variability may be attributed to differences in several key underlying assumptions –e.g. growth rates, pond system costs
• Given wide lack of agreement on these key metrics, analysis considers two approaches:1) “Top-down”: What does performance + cost “need to be” to hit a given biomass cost goal2) “Bottom-up”: Given a set of defendable assumptions, what is the resulting biomass cost
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Productivity(g/m2/day)
Biom
assC
ost($/U.S.Ton
)
AlgalO
ilCo
st($/Ga
llon)
Productivity(U.S.Ton/acre/yr @330days/yr)
AlgalOilCurrentAlgalOilFutureBiomassCurrentBiomassFuture
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15 25 35 45 55 65
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Productivity(ton/acre/year)
Pond
SystemCap
italCosts($
/WettedAc
re)
Productivity(g/m2/day)
$1000/USDryTon
$700/USDryTon
$550/USDryTon
$430/USDryTon
$300/USDryTon
Approach: “Top-Down” Analysis
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• Y and X axes – mutually independent variables• Contours = resulting minimum biomass selling price (MBSP)• MBSP reduces for higher productivity or lower pond cost• Likely lower limit for system costs ~$30k/acre (commercial nth
plant) • At this limit $430/ton is possible (@ 30 g/m2/day), but
challenging to reduce costs any further• Even if ponds were “free”, CO2/nutrient/other costs still add
up to $300-$400/ton lower boundary
“Today’s”costs(smallpondswithliner)
Commercialcostgoals(largerunlinedponds)
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“Bottom-up Analysis” – Process Schematic
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A100BIOMASSPRODUCTION
A200INOCULUMSYSTEM
A400MAKEUPWATERDELIVERY+ON-SITECIRCULATIONTO/FROM
DEWATERINGA300
CO2DELIVERY
A500DEWATERING
ALGAEBIOMASSCONVERSIONTO
BIOFUELS(notmodeledhere)
A600STORAGE
PFD-001JULY 2015
OVERALLPROCESS:ALGALPRODUCTIONPROCESS
ALGAE(0.05wt%solids)
AMMONIA
DIAMMONIUMPHOSPHATE
INOCULUMALGAE(0.05wt%solids)
ALGA
EPR
ODU
CT(20wt%
solids)
ALGA
EPR
ODU
CT
(20wt%
solids)
DIAMMONIUMPHOSPHATE
WAT
ER
RECYCLEWATER
AMMONIA
CO2
CO2
CO2(Fromoutsideoffacility) MAKEUPWATER
RECYCLEWATER
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Biomass Production: Process Considerations
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2022 goals:• Productivity: targeting 25 g/m2/day (AFDW annual avg)
• External reviewer agreement that >25 is or must be achievable by 2022 to demonstrate sufficient progress over today’s benchmarks
• Best performance published to date = 23 g/m2/day (+ 40% lipids) (Huntley/Cellana), 8-21 g/m2/day April-October (White/Sapphire)
• Composition: mid-harvest/high-carbohydrate Scenedesmus (HCSD), 27% FAME lipids• Scenedesmus selected given detailed compositional data, commercial relevance• Composition + productivity = ~3.9% PE to biomass (from full-spectrum irradiance), vs ~14% max
• Seasonal variability: 3:1 (max vs min seasonal growth)• Key challenge unique to algae – adds design constraints for downstream conversion facility• Most recent basis from PNNL BAT model = ~5:1 average for Gulf Coast• May be reduced either through strain engineering or seasonal strain rotation• Current ATP3 data ~3-4:1 average of all sites, <2.5:1 for Florida (“representative” Gulf Coast site)
• Evaporation: Based on prior harmonization modeling work (Gulf Coast average)
Metric Summer Fall Winter SpringAnnualAverage
BiomassProductivity(g/m2/dayAFDW) 35.0 24.9 11.7 28.5 25ProductivityVarianceversusSummerPeak NA(1:1) 1.4:1 3.0:1 1.2:1 NA
PondEvaporation(cm/day) 0.090 0.035 0.035 0.189 0.087Blowdown(MML/day) 7.3 2.8 2.7 12.4 6.3
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Pond Design Scenarios
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NREL solicited 4 separate inputs on 8 pond designs/costs:
• Key aspect of this work – address common conceptions that commercial algae pond costs are too scattered, uncertain to “really” establish with any certainty
• Ponds grouped into 100-acre “modules”, in turn constituting a 5,000 acre facility based on cultivation area (~7-9k total farm footprint)
• Continuous cultivation at fixed 0.5 g/L AFDW harvest density• Freshwater scenario, includes blowdown to control salt/inorganics
à All pond designs are based on unlined ponds with native clay soils• Plastic liners only used on berms or pond turns (2-25% of pond area)• Full pond liners considered as sensitivity (strongly influence total costs)
TypicalSumpLocation(variesbydesign)
1%Elevationchange
Weirevery2ndchannel
PaddlewheelStation
CirculationPump
CirculationPump
0.1%Slope
Paddlewheelraceway(typ) GAIgravityflow+pump Leidos serpentinepond
Source 2acre 10acre 50 acreLeidos (engineering firm) R R S
MicroBio (expert consultants) R R
Harris Group(engineeringfirm) RGAI(commercialdeveloper) G G
R=paddlewheelraceway
S=gravity-flowserpentine
G=GAIdesign(gravityracewaywithpump)
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Pond Cost Estimates
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a Additionaldatapoints(notincludedinfullTEA)addedtothisplottofurtherdemonstratecostalignmentbypondsize.
b Bealcostsbasedonextrapolatingfrompublishedcostsforfullylinedpondtoaminimally-lineddesign.IfafullylinedpondwereusedfortheBealcase,totalinstalledcostwouldbe$114,000/acre.
c GAIcasesincludeelectricalcostsunder“otherpondcosts”.
• Pond costs show reasonable agreement based on “small”, “medium”, or “large” size groupings
• More strongly a function of scale –highlights economy of scale advantages for building larger ponds >2-3 acres
• Largest cost drivers = paddlewheels + concrete (“other” category), piping, civil
• Economies of scale are possible for piping (individual feed/harvest lines), paddlewheels, electrical
• No notable scale advantages for civil
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$576$649
$452$491
$545$475 $491
$419 $392
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Algalbiomasss
ellin
gprice($/ton
AFD
W)
OSBL
Dewatering
Ponds+Inoculum
FixedOPEXCosts
OtherVariableOPEX
Nutrients
CO2
TEA Results: Base Case
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Facilitysize 5,000acres(2,023ha)wettedcultivationareaCO2 demand 417,700ton/yrOn-linetime 7,920h/yr (330days/yr,i.e.,90%on-linefactor)Biomassproductionrate 0.19MMton/yr (AFDW)Biomassyield 37.5ton/acre/yr (84.1tonne/ha/yr AFDW)Totalinstalledequipmentcost $238MMTotalcapitalinvestment(TCI) $390MMTCIperannualtonbiomass $2,080MinimumBiomassSellingPrice $491/tonAFDWContributionfromcultivationsystem $278/tonContributionfromCO2 +nutrients $112/tonContributionfromremainder $101/ton
• MBSP results follow same trend as pond costs (largest driver on MBSP)
• Strong economy of scale advantages for pond design: $122/ton average premium for 2 vs 10 acre ponds
• $85/ton savings to move from 10 to 50 acre ponds, but becomes more speculative at such large scales
• For purposes of selecting a single MBSP value, average of the four 10-acre cases was used
TEADetails(averageof10-acrecases):
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Sensitivity Analysis
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Key drivers:• Productivity: dictates
economics, critical to achieve >25 g/m2/day
• Liners: adding full pond liners = >$120/ton MBSP penalty ($0.85/GGE MFSP impact on conversion costs)
• Farm size: 1,000 acres = $100/ton MBSP penalty ($70 labor cost + $30 capex)
$300
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$800
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10 20 30 40 50
Algalbiomasss
ellin
gprice($/ton
)
Productivity(g/m2/day)
• CO2 cost/sourcing• Price for purchased CO2 (flue gas CCS) $0-100/tonne = +$100/ton MBSP• Additional scenarios considered for flue gas: 15 km flue gas transport infeasible• Flue gas co-located with power plant: possible to reduce MBSP ~$45/ton, but logistical challenges for pond delivery
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Summary and Concluding Remarks
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• Algal biomass costs are tied strongly to productivity + cost of ponds, followed by CO2 + nutrients
• To achieve economically viable MBSP, critical to:a) Increase productivity and strain robustnessb) Maximize economy of scale benefits using >10-acre pondsc) Maximize farm size to >5,000 acresd) Demonstrate pond operability without pond liners
• “Bottom-up” modeling targets a 2022 base case MBSP of $491/ton AFDW
• Updated conversion models project 2022 targets near $5-6/GGE for this cost (CAP + HTL)
• Possible to reduce biomass costs to ~$430/ton, but achieving $3/GGE will require fundamental shift towards coproducts
• CAP pathway is well-suited for coproduct opportunities: non-destructive isolation of sugar/lipid/protein constituents
• Coproducts are a key focus of our TEA work moving forward
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Questions?
Jennifer Markham Chris Kinchin Nick GrundlEric TanPhil PienkosLieve LaurensNick NagleBob McCormickJake KrugerMary Biddy
Dave Humbird, DWH ConsultingSue Jones, PNNLEd Frank, ANLJohn McGowen/Valerie Harmon, ATP3
Bill Crump, LeidosDavid Hazlebeck, GAIIan Woertz, Tryg Lundquist, John Benemann, MicroBio EngineeringJohn Lukas, Danielle Sexton, Harris GroupDesign report peer reviewers
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Acknowledgements
FundingforthisworkwasprovidedbytheBioenergyTechnologiesOfficeintheDepartmentofEnergy'sOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy.WethankDanielFishman,Christy
Sterner,andAlisonGossEngofthatprogramfortheirsupportandinput.
NREL, Sept, 2010, Pic #18229
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Facility layout – 5,000 acre farm
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5,000acrefacilitybasedoncultivationarea(7-9kacretotalfootprint=~12sq.mi.)
Pondsdividedinto100-acreplots;eachplotincludescirculationpipelines+
primarydewatering
Terracedfacilitydesignovergradual1%slopewithcentraldewatering,
inoculum,conversionprocessingon-site
• 5,000 acre facility based on cultivation area (~7-9k acre total footprint)• Ponds divided into 100-acre plots; each plot includes circulation pipelines and primary
dewatering• Graded over gradual 1% continuous land slope = “terraced” design allowing for downhill
gravity circulation to central dewatering + downstream conversion (but requires uphill pumping of clarified water from central dewatering)
• Continuous cultivation/harvesting at a fixed 0.5 g/L AFDW harvest density from ponds• Freshwater base case avoids introducing subjectivity for proximity/cost of saline water sourcing
and brine disposal (consistent with prior harmonization models)• Blowdown still included to mitigate salt/inorganics <4,000 mg/L – taken off primary dewatering
recycle line (lowest algae concentration point = minimize biomass losses)
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Inoculum system
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• Inoculum system based on increasingly larger volume steps: PBR –covered lined ponds – open lined ponds
• Each step grows inoculum from 0.1 to 0.5 g/L based on the same seasonal productivities as main ponds
• Final stage inoculates production ponds at 0.1 g/L• Inoculum system sized to require inoculation once every 20 days during
peak summer season• Equivalent to 5% of facility ponds requiring re-inoculation each dayà Key nth plant assumption – robust strains withstanding frequent culture crashes
H2O+CO2+Nutrients
SeedTrain(fromlab)
Photobioreactor
CoveredPond LinedPond
H2OEvaporationLoss
ToCultivationPonds
H2O+CO2
+Nutrients
H2O+CO2
+Nutrients
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Dewatering
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• Primary dewatering occurs within the 100-acre modules to avoid circulating large volumes of water over entire facility
• Concentrates biomass from 0.5 g/L (0.05 wt% AFDW) to 10 g/L (1%) = 95% reduction in volume throughput
• Achieved using low-cost in-ground gravity settlers• Lowest-cost dewatering option, critical for economically processing tremendous harvested culture
volumes• Demonstrated at large scale at Cellana [Huntley et al] and WWT facilities in CA [MicroBio]• Highly strain-specific, but Scenedesmus is likely to settle well – assumed 4 hr settling time, 90% recovery
• Secondary dewatering = hollow fiber membranes• Demonstrated at large scale over sustained timeframe by GAI• Cost, performance based on inputs from GAI• Concentrates biomass to 130 g/L (13% AFDW) at >99% recovery
• Final dewatering = centrifugation• Established technology, standard for algal biomass concentration• Cost, performance based on inputs from engineering contractor (vendor quote)• Concentrates biomass to 200 g/L (20% AFDW) at 97% recovery
Fromponds0.5g/L0.05wt%
10g/L1.0wt%
Biomasstoupgrading
200g/L20.0wt%
Recycletoponds0.4g/L0.04wt%
130g/L13.0wt%
Recirculationtoponds0.1g/L0.01wt%
Blowdown0.1g/L0.01wt%
Settlersarelocatedin100-acrepondmodules
Membranesandcentrifugesarelocatedinthecentraldewateringfacility
Settlers Centrifuges
Membranes
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Other design considerations
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• CO2• Sourcing via off-site flue gas carbon capture• Priced at $45/tonne delivered to facility gate (supercritical)
• Consistent with average future CCS price projections in literature, DOE target of $40/tonne by 2020-2025
• Additional costs for on-site storage and delivery to ponds• Bulk flue gas scenarios considered in sensitivity analysis
• Nutrients• Set based on stoichiometric biomass composition at harvest, plus 20% excess
allowance• No recycle credits are taken on front-end model, to remain agnostic to back end
conversion pathway; any recycle credits should be assigned to reduce $/gal MFSP instead
• Water circulation• Maintains consistency with harmonization models to source freshwater via
nearby ground water resource, ~0.8 mile pipeline distance to facility gate• On-site circulation accomplished with aqueducts for “downhill” circulation to
central dewatering, pipelines for “uphill” return of clarified effluent back to pond modules
• Storage• Model also includes major storage tanks• Dewatered biomass storage assumed to incur 1% loss to degradation – should
be processed as quickly as possible through downstream conversion
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Scale impacts for farm size
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Significant economy of scale penalties <5,000 acre farm size• MBSP = $100/ton @ 1,000 acres,
$200/ton @ 500 acres• $70/ton labor, $30/ton capex
• MFSP = $2-3/GGE @ 1,000 acres, $5-6/GGE @ 500 acres
• Driven by scale more than biomass cost
• Also equipment operability concerns i.e. upgrading (min boundary = 1,000 bbl/day which is still very small)
• Central upgrading possible, but may lose ability to recycle nutrients (critical for LCA)
AlgalFarmSize(CultivationAcres) 5,000 1,000 500Algalbiomasstoconversion(AFDWton/day) 568 114 57Totalvolume flowtoconversion(MGD) 0.68 0.14 0.07CAPoilyieldtoupgrading(bbl/day) 1,060 212 107Biomasssellingprice(MBSP, $/tonAFDW) $491 $593 $691CAPpathwayMFSP($/GGE) $5.89 $8.04 $10.47HTLpathwayMFSP($/GGE)– perSueJones,PNNL $4.77 $7.74 $10.85NumberofCAPfacilitiestosupport5BGY 228 1,141 2,283NumberofHTLfacilitiestosupport5BGY 172 860 1,720
$5.89
$8.04
$10.47
$0
$2
$4
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$12
5,000 1,000 500
CAPMFSP($/G
GE)
FarmSize(Acres)
MFSPimpactduetobiomasscost
MFSPimpactduetoscale
BaseMFSPat5,000acrefarmsize
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Sensitivities – Liners + Productivity
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$667
$813
$537
$651 $644 $635 $617 $584 $552
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Algalbiomasss
ellin
gprice($/ton
AFD
W)
OSBL
Dewatering
FullPondLiners
Ponds+Inoculum
FixedOPEXCosts
OtherVariableOPEX
Nutrients
CO2
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
10 20 30 40 50
Algalbiomasss
ellin
gprice($/ton
AFD
W)
Productivity(g/m2/day)
Full liner costs contribute almost the same amount as pond + inoculum costs – significant incentive to prioritize locations based on soil characteristics
• Biomass cost follows similar asymptotic curves as found in prior TEA – very strong cost sensitivity <25 g/m2/day
• Above 35 g/m2/day, other costs start dominating (CO2 + nutrients contribute >$100/ton in base case)
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Additional Sensitivity Scenarios
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• CO2: carbon capture vs bulk flue gas1) Bulk flue gas pipeline 15 km from source: requires more
power to transport the needed CO2 rate than the power generated to produce that amount of CO2
– Also translates to ~$49/tonne (vs $45/tonne target for purified CO2)
2) Flue gas co-location with algae facility (no significant off-site transport): $447/ton (~$45/ton MBSP savings) – But significant logistical/practicality questions regarding the use of multiple large ductwork pipelines routed around facility
• Alternative strains• Considered 9 total strain scenarios for tradeoffs in biomass
composition vs nutrient demands• Early-growth/high-protein biomass added up to $80/ton to
MBSP to sustain high N/P levels in biomass (*does not include N/P recycle considerations from downstream)
Fluegassource
60"
60"60"
48"
Centrif.Blower
IDFan
• Alternative dewatering scenarios1) Replace membranes with DAF
• Added substantial cost due to flocculant2) Replace membranes with EC
• Appears competitive with membranes, but requires large-scale demonstration
3) Replace membranes/centrifuge with filter press
• Potential to reduce MBSP by ~$15/ton but requires large-scale demonstration and may require a flocculant (would add to cost)
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Financial Assumptions: Algal Biomass Design Case
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• Model maintains the use of standard financial assumptions employed for other (biorefinery conversion) cases
• Exceptions:• Indirect capital cost factors: treated separately for cultivation, dewatering, and
OSBL operations based on best expectations for how such costs may factor into fixed capital investment (FCI)
• Labor: adjusted labor FTE categories and rates to more reasonably reflect algae farm (versus standard rates employed for a biorefinery)• Labor costs scale inversely with pond size (fewer total ponds required when each
pond is larger size = fewer ponds to service and maintain)
Plantlife 30yearsDiscountrate(IRR) 10%Generalplantdepreciation 200%decliningbalance(DB)Generalplantrecoveryperiod 7yearsFederaltaxrate 35%Financing 40%equityLoan terms 10-year loan at 8% APRConstructionperiod 3yearsFirst12months’expenditures 8%Next12months’expenditures 60%Last12months’expenditures 32%
Workingcapital 5%offixedcapitalinvestmentStart-uptime 6monthsRevenuesduringstart-up 50%Variablecostsincurredduringstart-up 75%Fixedcostsincurredduringstart-up 100%
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Algal biomass design case: indirect capital cost allocations
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