tcw double dip is here

8/8/2019 TCW Double Dip is Here

1/18

Double Dip Is Here!,

Presented by:

Komal S. Sri-Kumar, Ph.D.

Group Managing DirectorChief Global Strategist

This presentation is for information purposes only. While the information and statistical data contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate,and it should not be relied on as such or be the basis for an investment decision. While past performance may be analyzed in this material, past performance should not be considered indicativeof future erformance. An o inions ex ressed are current onl as of the time made and are sub ect to chan e without notice. TCW assumes no dut to u date an such statements. The views

expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of TCW as a firm or of any fund manager or employee of TCW. In addition, TCW manages a number of differentinvestment funds, and managers of those funds may have differing views or analyses with respect to a particular security or the economy than the views expressed herein. TCWs Fund managersmake investment decisions based on various sources of information and analyses and are not necessarily based on the economic information contained herein. This report may include estimates,projections and other "forward-looking statements." Due to numerous factors, actual events may differ substantially from those presented. This presentation is not to be used or considered as anoffer to sell, or a solicitation to an offer to buy, any security. Nothing contained herein should be considered a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security. TCW, its officers,directors, employees or clients may have positions in securities or investments mentioned in this presentation, which positions may change at any time, without notice.


2/18

Global Economy: Debt Reduction Still Dragging Growth Down

Debt reduction to continue worldwide in 2010

Dubai, Greece, . . . . . . . . , U.K. and U.S.?

Europes travails not over yet!

Fiscal stimulus a.k.a. money out of the window?

U.S. double dip: explaining the risk

1


3/18

United States: Consumer Is Forgotten Man

Consumer confidence still low

It is still The Jobs, Stupid!

Housing already in second dip

Bank credit hard to come by

Lowering unemployment key to economic recovery

2


4/18

S&P 500 Rally Runs Out of Steam

1300

1100

1200

900

600

700

3/9/09

3/30/09

4/20/09

5/11/09

6/1/09

6/22/09

7/13/09

8/3/09

8/24/09

9/14/09

10/5/09

10/26/09

11/16/09

12/7/09

12/28/09

1/18/10

2/8/10

3/1/10

3/22/10

4/12/10

5/3/10

5/24/10

6/14/10

7/5/10

7/26/10

8/16/10

Source: Bloomberg3


5/18

UST 10-Year Investors Riding a Tiger

4.5

5.0

4.0

)

3.0

.

Yield(%

2.0

2.5

1.5

ay-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

ug-08

ep-08

ct-08

ov-08

ec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

ar-09

pr-09

ay-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

ug-09

ep-09

ct-09

ov-09

ec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

ar-10

pr-10

ay-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

ug-10

Source: Bloomberg4


6/18

U.S. Economic Growth

8.0

Gross Domestic ProductPercent Change from Preceding Period - Based on Chained 2000 Dollars

4.0

6.0

(2.0)

-

.

%

(6.0)

(4.0)

.

1Q05

2Q05

3Q05

4Q05

1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

4Q06

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

Actual through Second Quarter

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and TCW Global Strategy Forecast5


7/18

U.S. Unemployment (U-6) Rate (%)

20.0

16.0

18.0

14.0

10.0

.

8.0

ug-08

ep-08

ct-08

ov-08

ec-08

an-09

eb-09

ar-09

pr-09

ay-09

un-09

Jul-09

ug-09

ep-09

ct-09

ov-09

ec-09

an-10

eb-10

ar-10

pr-10

ay-10

un-10

Jul-10

Source: Bloomberg6

A SN

J J A SN

J J

Data through July 2010


8/18

U.S. Households Net Worth

80

90

Assets

50

60

70

illions

Liabilities

Net Worth

20

30

40

USD

T

0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20002001 20022003 2004 20052006 20072008 20091Q10

+$1.1T$54.6T$53.5TNet Worth

-$0.1T$14.0T$14.1TLiabilities

+1.0T$68.5T$67.5TAssets

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve7

Data Through First Quarter 2010


9/18

Europe: Crisis Is Not Over

Debt reduction, haircuts for lenders in prospect

Greece complies so far but tough road ahead

Will contagion extend to Portugal and Spain?

conom c growt to s ow rom ea t y secon quarter

8


10/18

Europe: Members Fighting Different Battles

Bank stress tests were not very stressful!

Germany: strong economy despite austerity

France: emergency meeting considers deficit reduction

ta y: g e t m ts opt ons

. .

S ain: ersistent hi h unem lo ment threatens social fabric

9


11/18

Emerging Markets Lead Global Recovery

Positive growth in BRIC countries

Strong banking sectors are a factor

U.S. double dip will still have adverse impact

enewe growt , pr vat zat ons pos t ve or uss a

-

10


12/18

Implications for Investors

U.S. consumers prime factor in double-dip risk

Failed auction a risk despite UST rally

Deflation now, inflation later

Threats to global stability: Eurozone now, U.S. later

Emerging markets: haven even though coupled with developed west

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13/18

TCW Conservative Allocation FundAs of August 26, 2010

It should not be assumed that an investment in the securities listed was or will be profitable.

The investment performance of each Allocation Fund is affected by the investment performance of the underlying funds in which the Fund invests. The ability of the Fund to achieve its investmentobjective depends on the ability of the underlying funds to meet their investment objectives and on the Advisors decisions regarding the allocation of the Funds assets among the underlyingfunds. There can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Fund or any underlying fund will be achieved. Through its investments in the underlying funds, the Fund is subject to therisks of the underlying funds investments. Allocations shown are subject to change. Due to rounding, total s might not add up to 100%.

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You should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. The Funds Prospectus contains this andother information about the Fund. To receive a free Prospectus, please call 800 386 3829 or you may download the Prospectus from the Funds website atwww.tcw.com. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

The Funds are distributed by TCW Funds Distributors. The TCW Funds are advised by TCW Investment Management Company.

MKTcc522 8/26/10


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TCW Moderate Allocation FundAs of August 26, 2010




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15/18

TCW Aggressive Allocation FundAs of August 26, 2010




14 MKTcc522 8/26/10


16/18

TCW Asset Allocation FundsAs of August 26, 2010

TCW Conservative Allocation Fund TCW Moderate Allocation Fund TCW Aggressive Allocation Fund

Benchmarkenchmark




15 MKTcc522 8/26/10


17/18

ETF AllocationsAs of August 26, 2010

TCW Moderate Allocation Fund TCW Aggressive Allocation Fund




16 MKTcc522 8/26/10


18/18

Biography

Komal S. Sri-Kumar, Ph.D.Group Managing Director

Chief Global StrategistChairman Com rehensive Asset Allocation Committee

Dr. Sri-Kumar is Chairman of the Comprehensive Asset Allocation Portfolio and Chief Global Strategist of Trust Companyof the West (TCW). He has been associated with the allocation strategy since its inception in 1991 and has beenChairman since 1997. This strategy allocates assets across a broad array of global asset classes including U.S. andforei n e uities and fixed income, rivate e uit , ener and real estate.

As Chief Global Strategist, Dr. Sri-Kumar has the responsibility for advising portfolio managers and has been key toraising assets for a number of TCW strategies from Sovereign Wealth Funds, international agencies, corporate and publicpension funds and retail investors. Among other strategies, he was instrumental in raising funds for, and helping guideinvestments in, two Emerging Market Real Estate funds managed by Hines.

Dr. Sri-Kumar has addressed CEOs, pension fund managers and retail fund managers in conferences in the UnitedStates, Europe and Asia. His articles and interviews have been published in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Timesand the Financial Times. He frequently explains his views on the global outlook and their investment implications onCNBC, Bloomberg TV and the Fox Business Network.

Prior to joining TCW in 1990, Dr. Sri-Kumar was Senior Vice President at Drexel Burnham Lambert and Executive VicePresident of DBL Americas, responsible for country risk analysis. He holds an M.A. degree from the Delhi School ofEconomics, and M.Phil and Ph.D. degrees from Columbia University. His doctoral dissertation at Columbia wassupervised by Professor Robert Mundell, Nobel Laureate in Economics (1999).

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