tcci barometer september 2011. “establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the financial,...

TCCI BarometerSeptember 2011

“Establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the financial, business and social activity in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki”

• Conduct every six months (September, 2nd fortnight)

• Monitoring five (5) populations of interest:

- Residents – Consumers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Consumer Survey)

- Retail Trade companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Retail Trade Survey)

- Industries – Manufacturers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Industry Survey)

- Services companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Services Survey)

- Construction companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Construction Survey)

• Conduct via telephone interviews (CATI system)

• Total sample of 1.500 respondents (700 consumers & 800 companies)

• Questionnaires along the lines of instructions for investigating

economic climate (DG – ECFIN)

Consumer Survey

Industry Survey

Services Survey

Retail Trade Survey4

3

2

1

Construction Survey5

Consumer Survey1

Consumer Confidence Indicator

Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -76

Greece : -74

European Union : -19

Consumer Survey1

Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR3. European Union : DG ECFIN

Consumer Confidence Indicator (March 2011)


Greece : -66


Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -57GR: -71EU: -14


March 2011

1% 1%

16%

46%

36%

How has the financial situation of your household changed

over the last 12 months? It has...

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

0% 1%

11%

39%

49%

How has the financial situation of your household changed

over the last 12 months? It has...

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive– Negative)THE: -44GR: -55EU: -7


March 2011

0%

5%

26%

40%

26%

3%

How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It

will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

0%2%

13%

32%51%

2%

How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It

will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1



March 2011

0%1%

5%

30%

63%

1%

How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12 months? It

has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

don't know

0%0%

2%

23%

74%

1%

How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12 months?

It has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1



March 2011

1%

7%

15%

32%

44%

2%

How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?

It will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

0%2%

8%

21%

67%

3%

How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?

It will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +33GR: +61EU: +41


March 2011

7%

14%

14%

33%

30%

2%

How do you think that consumer prices have de-veloped over the last 12 months? They have…

fallen

stayed about the same

risen slightly

risen moderately

risen a lot

don't know

4%14%

20%

33%

28%

1%

How do you think that consumer prices have developed over the last 12 months? They

have…

fallen

stayed about the same

risen slightly

risen moderately

risen a lot

don't know

Consumer Survey1



March 2011

7%

22%

12%

31%

23%

5%

By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in the next

12 months? They will...

fall

stay about the same

increase at a slower rate

increase at the same rate

increase more rapidly

don't know

6%

18%

12%

28%

31%

6%

By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in

the next 12 months? They will...

fall

stay about the same

increase at a slower rate

increase at the same rate

increase more rapidly

don't know

Consumer Survey1



March 2011

1%2%

3%

18%

76%

0%

How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the next 12 months?

The number will…

fall sharply

fall slightly

remain the same

increase shlightly

increase sharply

don't know

1%1%

2%

9%

86%

1%

How do you expect the number of people unem-ployed in this country to change over the next 12

months? The number will…

fall sharply

fall slightly

remain the same

increase shlightly

increase sharply

don't know

Consumer Survey1



March 2011

1%

13%

15%

72%

In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to make major purchases such as furniture, elec-

trical/electronic devices, etc.?

don’t know

yes,it is the right moment now

it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment

no, it is not the right moment now

1%

12%

14%

73%

In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to make major purchases such as furniture, electrical/electronic

devices, etc.?

don’t know

yes,it is the right moment now

it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment

no, it is not the right moment now

Consumer Survey1



March 2011

3%3%

11%

16%

66%

1%

Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases

(furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over the next 12 months? I will spend…

much more

a little more

about the same

a little less

much less

don't know

4% 5%5%

15%

70%

1%

Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases (furni-ture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over the next 12

months? I will spend…

much more

a little more

about the same

a little less

much less

don't know

Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -54GR: -47EU: -

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -58GR: -51EU: -

March 2011

7%

11%

26%54%

2%

In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?

a very good moment to save

a fairly good moment to save

not a good moment to save

a very bad moment to save

don't know

6%

12%

20%

60%

2%

In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?

a very good moment to save

a fairly good moment to save

not a good moment to save

a very bad moment to save

don't know

Consumer Survey1



March 2011

4%

8%

25%

64%

0%

Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

2%

7%

16%

73%

1%

Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

Consumer Survey1March 2011

1%

11%

48%

20%

20%

0%

Which of these statements best describes the current financial situation of your household?

we are saving a lot

we are saving a little

we are just managing to make ends meet on our income

we are having to draw on our savings

we are running into debt

don't know

1%

8%

41%

22%

27%

1%

Which of these statements best describes the current financial situation of your household?

we are saving a lot

we are saving a little

we are just managing to make ends meet on our income

we are having to draw on our savings

we are running into debt

don't know

Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -89GR*: -88EU*: -75

*Data of January ‘11


*Data of July ‘11

March 2011

2% 3%

5%

90%

How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

1% 3%

5%

92%

How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

Consumer Survey1



March 2011

1% 2% 2%

94%

Are you planning to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of

your family, as a holiday home, to let etc.)?

yes, definitely

possibly

probably not

no

*Data of July ‘11 *Data of January ‘11

1%2%2%

96%

Are you planning to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of your

family, as a holiday home, to let etc.)?

yes, definitely

possibly

probably not

no

Consumer Survey1

*Data of July ‘11



March 2011

3%

6%

11%

81%

How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations

over the next 12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don’t know


3%

4%7%

86%

How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations over the next 12

months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

Industry Survey2

Industry Survey2

Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector) – March 2011


Greece : -16

European Union : +7Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR3. European Union : DG ECFIN

Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector)


Greece : -24

European Union : -6

Industry Survey2

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -49GR: -8

EU: +20

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -56GR: -7

EU: +0,4

March 2011

decreased61%

remain un-

changed25%

increased13%

don't know1%

How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:

decreased65%

remain un-

changed26%

increased9%

How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:

Industry Survey2



March 2011

not sufficient67%

sufficient32%

more than sufficient1%

Do you consider your current overall order books to be:

not sufficient69%

sufficient29%


don't know0%


Industry Survey2



March 2011

not sufficient42%

don't know 24%

sufficient31%


Do you consider your current export order books to be:

not sufficient33%

don't know 29%

sufficient34%


Do you consider your current export order books to be:

Industry Survey2

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -3

GR: +10EU: -1


GR: +20EU: +7

March 2011

adequate67%

too small16%

too large13%

don't know3%

Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:

adequate56%too small

25%

too large17%

don't know1%

Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:

Industry Survey2

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -19GR: -0,5EU: +20

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -43GR: -9EU: +2

March 2011

decrease39%

remain un-

changed36%

increase21%

don't know4%

How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…

decrease47%

remain un-

changed33%

increase9%

don't know11%

How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…

Industry Survey2

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -1GR: +7

EU: +25


GR: +0,5EU: +7

March 2011

remain un-

changed60%

decrease19%

increase18%

don’t know3%

How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…

remain unchanged

60%

decrease22%

increase12%

don’t know6%

How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…

Industry Survey2



March 2011

remain un-

changed67%

decrease30%

increase3%

How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…

remain unchanged

64%

decrease31%

don’t know 1%

increase4%


Industry Survey2

March 2011

don't know

other factors

shortage of material and/or equipment

shortage of labour force

none

financial constraints

insufficient demand

0%

6%

4%

1%

4%

56%

55%

What main factors are currently limiting your production?

don't know

other factors

shortage of material and/or equipment


none


insufficient demand

1%

13%

2%

4%

2%

65%

49%

What main factors are currently limiting your produc-tion?

Industry Survey2

March 2011

decreased57%

remain unchanged29%

increased13%

How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…

decreased61%

remain unchanged

32%

increased6%

don't know1%

How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…

Industry Survey2


GR:* +35EU:* +12



GR:* +35EU:* +11

*Data of July ‘11

March 2011

sufficient70%

not sufficient18%

more than suf-ficient11%

don't know1%

Considering your current order books and the ex-pected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capac-

ity? The current production capacity is…

sufficient64%

not sufficient20%

more than sufficient

15%

don't know1%

Considering your current order books and the ex-pected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capac-

ity? The current production capacity is…

Industry Survey2


GR: +14EU: +20

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -20GR: +15EU: +9

March 2011

don't know25%

remain un-

changed38%

decrease21%

increase15%

How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…

*Data of July ‘11 *Data of January ‘11

don't know34%

remain unchanged

38%

decrease21%

increase7%

How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…

Industry Survey2

Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. *Greece : FEIR3. *European Union : DG ECFIN

Thessaloniki Greece* European Union*

**How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books? 3,0 3,7 4,0

***At what capacity is your company currently operating (as a percentage of full capacity)? 56,4% 67,5% 80,7%

** Percentage of those who answered: 76%*** Percentage of those who answered: 90%

Services Survey3

Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector) – March 2011


Greece : -26

European Union : +10

Services Survey3

Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR 3. European Union : DG ECFIN

Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector)


Greece : -25

European Union : -4

Services Survey3



March 2011

deteriorated64%

remained unchanged

30%

improved6%

How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…

deteriorated69%

remained unchanged

21%

improved9%

How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…

Services Survey3



March 2011

decreased60%

remained unchanged

29%

increased10%

don't know1%

How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It has…

decreased62%

remained unchanged

27%

increased11%

How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It has…

Services Survey3


Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -43GR: -31EU: -0,3

March 2011

decrease36%

remain un-

changed36%

increase24%

don't know5%

How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 6

months? It will…

decrease51%

remain un-

changed32%

increase10%

don't know6%

How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next

6 months? It will…

Services Survey3

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -28 GR: -25 EU: +9

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -15 GR: -21 EU: +3

March 2011

remained unchanged

61%

decreased33%

increased5%

don't know0%

How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…

remained unchanged

73%

decreased21%

increased6%

How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…

Services Survey3



March 2011

remain un-

changed76%

decrease16%

increase6%

don't know3%


remain un-

changed72%

decrease20%

increase4%

don't know3%


Services Survey3



March 2011

remain un-

changed56%

decrease33%

increase8%

don't know4%

How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…

remain un-

changed72%

decrease20%

increase4%

don't know3%


Services Survey3

March 2011

insufficient demant


other factors

none


shortage of space and/or equipment

don't know

60%

59%

5%

9%

0%

0%

0%

What main factors are currently limiting your business?

insufficient demant


other factors

none


shortage of space and/or equipment

don't know

48%

54%

12%

5%

2%

1%

1%

What main factors are currently limiting your business?

Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector) – March 2011


Greece : -22

European Union : +0,5



Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector)


Greece : -41





March 2011

deteriorated83%

remained unchanged

11%

improved7%

How has (have) your business activity (sales) devel-oped over the past 6 months? It has…(They have…)

deteriorated78%

remained unchanged

15%

improved6%

How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…

(They have…)


Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -12GR: +12EU: +13

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -19 GR: +19 EU: +17

March 2011

adequate (normal for the season)

46%

too large (above normal)

21%

too small (be-low normal)

33%

don't know2%

Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:

adequate (normal for the season)

50%

too large (above normal)

14%

too small (be-low normal)

33%

don't know3%

Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:


Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -45GR: -33EU: 0


March 2011

decrease56%

remain un-

changed30%

increase12%

don't know3%

How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months?

They will…

decrease66%

remain un-

changed25%

increase5%

don't know4%

How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months? They will…




March 2011

deteriorate (decrease)

48%remain un-

changed31%

improve (increase)

16%

don't know6%

How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They) will…

deteriorate (decrease)

68%

remain un-

changed20%

improve (increase)

8%

don't know3%

How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They) will…




March 2011

remain un-

changed69%

decrease27%

don't know1%

increase4%


remain un-

changed68%

decrease29%

don't know1%

increase2%





March 2011

remain un-

changed52%

decrease33%

increase14%

don't know1%


remain un-

changed60%

decrease26%

increase10%

don't know4%


Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector) – March 2011


Greece : -68




Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector)


Greece : -61





March 2011

decreased70%

remained unchanged

21%

increased7%

don't know1%

How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…

decreased67%

remained unchanged

21%

increased12%

don't know1%

How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…


March 2011

don't know


shortage of equipment

weather conditions

none

other factors


insufficient demand

1%

1%

1%

3%

3%

1%

60%

67%

What main factors are currently limiting your build-ing activity?

don't know


shortage of equipment

weather conditions

none

other factors


insufficient demand

1%

0%

2%

1%

3%

2%

63%

61%

What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?




March 2011

sufficient18%

not sufficient

81%



sufficient29%

not sufficient71%






March 2011

remain un-

changed61%

decrease36%

increase2%

don't know1%


remain un-

changed53%

decrease43%

increase2%

don't know3%





March 2011

remain un-

changed55%

decrease27%

increase14%

don't know4%


remain un-

changed65%

decrease28%

increase2%

don't know5%


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tcci barometer september 2011. “establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the financial,...

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