tcci barometer · 2010. 5. 6. · 1.prefecture of thessaloniki: tcci barometer 2.greece : feir...

TCCI Barometer

March 2010

“Establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the

financial, business and social activity in the

Prefecture of Thessaloniki”

•Conduct every six months (March – September, 2nd fortnight)

•Monitoring five (5) populations of interest:

- Residents – Consumers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Consumer Survey)

- Retail Trade companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Retail Trade Survey)

- Industries – Manufacturers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Industry Survey)

- Services companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Services Survey)

- Construction companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Construction Survey)

• Conduct via telephone interviews (CATI system)

• Total sample of 1.500 respondents (700 consumers & 800 companies)

• Questionnaires along the lines of instructions for investigating

economic climate (DG – ECFIN)

Consumer Survey

Industry Survey

Services Survey

Retail Trade Survey4

3

2

1

Construction Survey5

Consumer Survey1

Consumer Confidence Indicator

Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -61

Greece : -57

European Union : -14

Consumer Survey1

Source:

1.Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer

2.Greece : FEIR

3.European Union : DG ECFIN

Consumer Confidence Indicator (September 2009)


Greece : -39


Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -32

GR: -50

EU: -15


GR: -55

EU: -14

September 2009

1%3%

41%

34%

21%

How has the financial situation of your household changed

over the last 12 months? It has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

0% 1%

26%

49%

24%

How has the financial situation of your household changed

over the last 12 months? It has...

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive– Negative)THE: -13

GR: -22

EU: -2


GR: -45

EU: -2

September 2009

2%

15%

39%25%

10%

9%

How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It

will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

0%

5%

20%

45%

27%

3%

How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It

will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -71

EU: -57


GR: -76

EU: -46

September 2009

0%

3%

12%

43%

40%

2%

How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12 months?

It has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

don't know

0%1%

8%

43%

46%

2%

How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12 months?

It has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -38

EU: -11


GR: -44

EU: -7

September 2009

1%

14%

27%

26%

21%

11%

How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?

It will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

0%

10%

15%

31%

41%

3%

How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months? It

will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +23

GR: +45

EU: -02


GR: +42

EU: +05

September 2009

6%

19%

20%28%

25%

2%

How do you think that consumer prices have developed over the last 12 months? They have…

fallen

stayed about the same

risen slightly

risen moderately

risen a lot

don't know

2%

12%

21%

40%

23%

2%

How do you think that consumer prices have developed over the last 12 months? They have…

fallen

stayed about the same

risen slightly

risen moderately

risen a lot

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: +07

EU: -09


GR: +25

EU: +07

September 2009

5%

25%

16%30%

13%

11%

By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in the next

12 months? They will...

fall

stay about the same

increase at a slower rate

increse at the same rate

increase more rapidly

don't know

4%

15%

11%

28%

39%

3%

By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in

the next 12 months? They will...

fall

stay about the same

increase at a slower rate

increase at the same rate

increase more rapidly

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: +47

EU: +46


GR: +82

EU: +41

September 2009

1%

4%

16%

36%

38%

5%

How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the next 12 months?

The number will…

fall sharply

fall slightly

remain the same

increase slightly

increase sharply

don't know

0%2%

5%

17%

74%

2%

How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the next 12 months?

The number will…

fall sharply

fall slightly

remain the same

increase shlightly

increase sharply

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -44

EU: -15


GR: -56

EU: -15

September 2009

19%

21%

57%

3%

In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to

make major purchases such as furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.?

yes,it is the right moment now

it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment

no, it is not the right moment now

don't know

1%

12%

18%

69%

In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people

to make major purchases such as furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.?

don’t know

yes,it is the right moment now

it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment

no, it is not the right moment now

Consumer Survey1


GR: -33

EU: -23


GR: -55

EU: -24

September 2009

8%

11%

24%

24%

32%

1%

Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases

(furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over the next 12 months? I will spend…

much more

a little more

about the same

a little less

much less

don't know

3%6%

11%

26%

53%

1%

Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases

(furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over the next 12 months? I will spend…

much more

a little more

about the same

a little less

much less

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -46

EU: +14


GR: -45

EU: -

September 2009

8%

14%

27%

47%

4%

In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?

a very good moment to save

a fairly good moment to save

not a good moment to save

a very bad moment to save

don't know

6%

13%

27%

53%

1%

In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?

a very good moment to save

a fairly good moment to save

not a good moment to save

a very bad moment to save

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -50

EU: -8


GR: -60

EU: -5

September 2009

7%

17%

23%

51%

2%

Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

4%11%

21%

63%

1%

Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

Consumer Survey1

September 2009

3%

20%

49%

14%

13%

1%

Which of these statements best describes the current financial situation of your household?

we are saving a lot

we are saving a little

we are just managing to make ends meet on our incomewe are having to draw on our savings

we are running into debt

don't know

1%

16%

49%

18%

16%

0%

Which of these statements best describes the current financial situation of your household?

we are saving a lot

we are saving a little

we are just managing to make ends meet on our incomewe are having to draw on our savings

we are running into debt

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR*: -76

EU*: -74

*Data of July ‘09


GR*: -63

EU*: -74

*Data of January ‘10

September 2009

5%7%

7%

81%

0%

How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

3%3%

4%

90%

How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

Consumer Survey1


GR*: -80

EU*: -88

*Data of July ‘09


GR*: -90

EU*: -89


September 2009

3%6%2%

88%

1%

Are you planning to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of your family,

as a holiday home, to let etc.)?

yes, definitely

possibly

probably not

no

don't know

1%

3%4%

92%

Are you planning to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of

your family, as a holiday home, to let etc.)?

yes, definitely

possibly

probably not

no

Consumer Survey1

*Data of July ‘09


GR*: -66

EU*: -58



GR*: -61

EU*: -57

September 2009

7%

11%

14%

68%

0%

How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations over the next

12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

3%8%

13%

76%

How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations

over the next 12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

Industry Survey2

Industry Survey2

Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector) – September 2009


Greece : -24

European Union : -24Source:


2.Greece : FEIR

3.European Union : DG ECFIN

Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector)


Greece : -23


Industry Survey2


GR: -20

EU: -20

decreased57%

remained unchanged

26%

increased14%

don’t know3%

How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:


GR: -15

EU: +2

September 2009

decreased64%

remain unchanged

24%

increased9%

don't know3%

How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:

Industry Survey2


GR: -54

EU: -55

not sufficient56%

sufficient41%

more than sufficient

2%

don’t know1%

Do you consider your current overall order books to be:


GR: -52

EU: -39

September 2009

not sufficient

65%

sufficient33%


1%

don't know1%


Industry Survey2


GR: -45

EU: -55


3%

sufficient27%

not sufficient39%

don’t know31%

Do you consider your current export order books to be:


GR: -40

EU: -35

September 2009

not sufficient43%

don't know 29%

sufficient27%


1%

Do you consider your current export order books to be:

Industry Survey2


GR: +20

EU: +11

adequate65%

too large16%

too small12%

don’t know7%

Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:


GR: +17

EU: +1

September 2009

adequate60%

too small14%

too large19%

don't know7%

Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:

Industry Survey2


GR: +01

EU: -06

remain unchanged

43%

increase28%

decrease20%

don’t know9%

How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…


GR: +01

EU: +10

September 2009

decrease36%

remain unchanged

36%

increase16%

don't know12%

How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…

Industry Survey2


GR: -07

EU: -08

remain unchanged

65%

decrease19%

increase10%

don’t know6%

How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…


GR: +02

EU: +01

September 2009

remain unchanged

56%decrease

24%

increase14%

don’t know8%

How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…

Industry Survey2


GR: -22

EU: -30

remain unchanged

72%

decrease18%

increase8%

don’t know2%

How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…


GR: -20

EU: -15

September 2009

remain unchanged

65%

decrease31%

don’t know 3%

increase2%


Industry Survey2

September 2009

1%

3%

4%

8%

8%

29%

48%

shortage of labour force

shortage of material and/or equipment

don't know

none

other factors

financial constraints

insufficient demand

What main factors are currently limiting your production?

1%

10%

5%

2%

5%

29%

47%

don't know

other factors

shortage of material and/or equipment


none


insufficient demand

What main factors are currently limiting your production?

Industry Survey2

decreased56%remained

unchanged29%

increased14%

don’t know1%

How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…

September 2009

decreased64%

remain unchanged

27%

increased7%

don't know4%

How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…

Industry Survey2


GR:* +41

EU:* +51

*Data of July ‘09


GR:* +37

EU:* +36


sufficient67%

not sufficient15%


15%

don’t know3%

Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming

months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production

capacity is…

September 2009

sufficient68%

not sufficient17%


10%

don't know5%

Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming

months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is…

Industry Survey2


GR: -09

EU: -10

increase17%

remain unchanged

30%

decrease17%

don’t know36%

How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…


GR: +02

EU: +12

September 2009

don't know31%

remain unchanged

32%

decrease28%

increase9%

How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…

Industry Survey2

Source:


2.*Greece : FEIR – March 2010

3.*European Union : DG ECFIN – March 2010

Thessaloniki Greece* European Union*

**How many months of production are assured by

your current overall order books? 3,5 3,7 3,4

***At what capacity is your company currently

operating (as a percentage of full capacity)? 64,2% 69,0% 72,9%

** Percentage of those who answered: 80%

*** Percentage of those who answered: 89%

Services Survey3

Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector) – March 2009


Greece : -19


Services Survey3

Source:

1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer

2. Greece : FEIR

3. European Union : DG ECFIN

Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector)


Greece : -21

European Union : +01

Services Survey3


GR: -14

EU: -18

deteriorated51%

remained unchanged

32%

improved15%

don’t know2%

How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…


GR: -20

EU: -06

September 2009

deteriorated64%

remained unchanged

28%

improved8%

How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…

Services Survey3


GR: -17

EU: -12

decreased56%

remained unchanged

30%

increased13%

don’t know1%

How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It

has…


GR: -21

EU: +01

September 2009

decreased51%remained

unchanged33%

increased13%

don’t know1%

How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It

has…

Services Survey3


GR: -25

EU: -04

remain unchanged

39%

increase30%

decrease23%

don’t know8%

How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 6

months? It will…


GR: -21

EU: +08

September 2009

decrease43%

remain unchanged

33%

increase18%

don't know6%

How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 6

months? It will…

Services Survey3


GR: -21

EU: -18

remained unchanged

72%

decreased19%

increased7%

don’t know2%

How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…


GR: -14

EU: -13

September 2009

remained unchanged

70%

decreased24%

increased4%

don't know2%

How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…

Services Survey3


GR: -23

EU: -13

remain unchanged

75%

decrease11%

increase7%

don’t know7%



GR: -23

EU: -04

September 2009

remain unchanged

68%

decrease22%

increase6%

don't know4%


Services Survey3

remain unchanged

77%

decrease14%

increase5%

don’t know4%

How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…


GR: +01

EU: -07


GR: -09

EU: -03

September 2009

remain unchanged

64%

decrease18%

increase11%

don't know7%


Services Survey3

September 2009

39%

35%

13%

8%

2%

2%

2%

insufficient demand


other factors

none

shortage of space and/or equipment

don't know


What main factors are currently limiting your business?

37%

38%

12%

10%

1%

2%

1%

insufficient demant


other factors

none


shortage of space and/or equipment

don't know

What main factors are currently limiting your business?

Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector) – March 2009


Greece : -07



Source:


2. Greece : FEIR


Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector)


Greece : -32




GR: -5

EU: -13

deteriorated68%

remained unchanged

23%

improved6%

don’t know3%

How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…(They

have…)


GR: -45

EU: -06

September 2009

deteriorated76%

remained unchanged

20%

improved4%

How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…(They

have…)



GR: +10

EU: +09

adequate (normal for the season)

51%

too large (above normal)

14%

too small (below normal)

17%

don’t know18%

Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:


GR: +07

EU: +09

September 2009

adequate (normal for the season)

61%

too large (above normal)

20%

too small (below normal)

15%

don't know4%

Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:



GR: -19

EU: -14

decrease41%

remain unchanged

30%

increase14%

don’t know15%

How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months? They

will…


GR: -52

EU: -05

September 2009

decrease58%

remain unchanged

28%

increase7%

don't know7%

How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months?

They will…



GR: -15

EU: -11

deteriorate(decrease)

41%

remain unchanged

32%

improve (increase)

18%

don’t know9%

How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They) will…


GR: -45

EU: +03

September 2009

deteriorate (decrease)

56%

remain unchanged

28%

improve (increase)

12%

don't know4%

How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They) will…



GR: +5

EU: -08

remain unchanged

78%

decrease15%

increase4%

don’t know3%



GR: -22

EU: -03

September 2009

remain unchanged

70%

decrease22%

don't know5%

increase3%




GR: -16

EU: -02

remain unchanged

60%

decrease22%

increase11%

don’t know7%



GR: -01

EU: +03

September 2009

remain unchanged

53%

decrease23%

increase20%

don't know4%


Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector) – March 2009


Greece : -39



Source:


2. Greece : FEIR


Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector)


Greece : -60




GR: -23

EU: -26

decreased53%

remain unchanged

41%

increased6%

How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…


GR: -30

EU: -22

September 2009

decreased72%

remained unchanged

23%

increased5%

How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…


September 2009

1%

2%

3%

8%

30%

56%

none


other factors

weather conditions


insufficient demand

What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?

1%

3%

2%

7%

3%

6%

40%

38%

don't know


shortage of equipment

weather conditions

none

other factors


insufficient demand

What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?



GR: -46

EU: -49

not sufficient63%

sufficient35%

don’t know1%


1%



GR: -72

EU: -43

September 2009

sufficient26%

not sufficient72%


1%

don't know1%




GR: -32

EU: -25

remain unchanged

68%

decrease21%

don’t know6%

increase5%



GR: -18

EU: -18

September 2009

remain unchanged

57%

decrease26%

increase9%

don't know8%




GR: -33

EU: -22

remain unchanged

68%

decrease23%

increase8%

don’t know1%



GR: -48

EU: -16

September 2009

remain unchanged

60%

decrease31%

increase5%

don't know4%


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tcci barometer · 2010. 5. 6. · 1.prefecture of thessaloniki: tcci barometer 2.greece : feir...

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