TC products based on ensemble forecast

Sébastien LANGLADE – September 2015 -

Outline

1. Ensemble based dynamical uncertainty circles aroundRSMC TC tracks

2. Ensemble based products used in operation

Outline

1. Ensemble based dynamical uncertainty circles aroundRSMC TC tracks

2. Ensemble based products used in operation

Uncertainty Cones

Climatology-Based Uncertainty Cones

NOAA NHC – MiamiAtlantic and Eastern pacific RSMC

CMRS de Tokyo

JMA Tokyo –

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Atlantic and Eastern pacific RSMC JMA Tokyo –North-Western Pacific RSMC

Hybrid Uncertainty Cone (Climatology + Forecast Winds extension)

JTWC Hawaï –Us Army

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Construction of a 75% uncertainty circle for 48h lead time

Ensemble members in redEnsemble mean in pinkRSMC forecast position in blue

Forecast probability is 75 %���� Circle centred on ensemble mean position build than 75 % (38/51) of the members are inside.

Then the circle is tranlated on the RSMC forecast position at the same lead time

Thierry Dupont, Matthieu Plu, Philippe Caroff, and G hislain Faure, 2011: Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 664–676.

Example

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� Exemple : TC GIOVANNA 11 Feb. 2012 at 1200Z forecast

RSMC La RéunionEPS based Uncertainty Cones Products

� Final Graphical Products for TC GIOVANNA 11 Feb. 2012 at 1200Z forecast

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Public Website of RSMC La réunion Southern Africa SW FDP Extranet Website

Outline

1. Ensemble based dynamical uncertainty circles aroundRSMC TC tracks

2. Ensemble based products used in operation

ECMWF Website Real Time products (2) - Restricted AcessTropical Cyclone

ECMWF Website Real Time products (1) - Restricted AcessCyclogenesis

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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/me dium/eps/genesis/ta_genesis/

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2013

KROSASSMIS F182013/10/30 1059Z

Ex-LEKIMA

Use of TIGGE data:Multi-ensembles and super-ensembles

Inhouse made Synergie Cyclone Layers MSLP Spaghettis(998-1000-1004-1008hPa)

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