![Page 1: TC products based on ensemble forecastsevereweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAI_Training2015/14_EPS...Inhouse made Synergie Cyclone Layers MSLP Spaghettis(998-1000-1004-1008hPa) Novembre 2013](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051920/600d7d43f10c1d69245d1642/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
TC products based on ensemble forecast
Sébastien LANGLADE – September 2015 -
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Outline
1. Ensemble based dynamical uncertainty circles aroundRSMC TC tracks
2. Ensemble based products used in operation
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Outline
1. Ensemble based dynamical uncertainty circles aroundRSMC TC tracks
2. Ensemble based products used in operation
![Page 4: TC products based on ensemble forecastsevereweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAI_Training2015/14_EPS...Inhouse made Synergie Cyclone Layers MSLP Spaghettis(998-1000-1004-1008hPa) Novembre 2013](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051920/600d7d43f10c1d69245d1642/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Uncertainty Cones
Climatology-Based Uncertainty Cones
NOAA NHC – MiamiAtlantic and Eastern pacific RSMC
CMRS de Tokyo
JMA Tokyo –
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Atlantic and Eastern pacific RSMC JMA Tokyo –North-Western Pacific RSMC
Hybrid Uncertainty Cone (Climatology + Forecast Winds extension)
JTWC Hawaï –Us Army
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Construction of a 75% uncertainty circle for 48h lead time
Ensemble members in redEnsemble mean in pinkRSMC forecast position in blue
Forecast probability is 75 %���� Circle centred on ensemble mean position build than 75 % (38/51) of the members are inside.
Then the circle is tranlated on the RSMC forecast position at the same lead time
Thierry Dupont, Matthieu Plu, Philippe Caroff, and G hislain Faure, 2011: Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 664–676.
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Example
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� Exemple : TC GIOVANNA 11 Feb. 2012 at 1200Z forecast
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RSMC La RéunionEPS based Uncertainty Cones Products
� Final Graphical Products for TC GIOVANNA 11 Feb. 2012 at 1200Z forecast
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Public Website of RSMC La réunion Southern Africa SW FDP Extranet Website
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Outline
1. Ensemble based dynamical uncertainty circles aroundRSMC TC tracks
2. Ensemble based products used in operation
![Page 9: TC products based on ensemble forecastsevereweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAI_Training2015/14_EPS...Inhouse made Synergie Cyclone Layers MSLP Spaghettis(998-1000-1004-1008hPa) Novembre 2013](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051920/600d7d43f10c1d69245d1642/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
ECMWF Website Real Time products (2) - Restricted AcessTropical Cyclone
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ECMWF Website Real Time products (1) - Restricted AcessCyclogenesis
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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/me dium/eps/genesis/ta_genesis/
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Use of TIGGE data:Multi-ensembles and super-ensembles
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Inhouse made Synergie Cyclone Layers MSLP Spaghettis(998-1000-1004-1008hPa)
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