tarek amyunitechnical analysis the market cycle model and basic trend identification

tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL AND BASIC TREND IDENTIFICATION


DIFFERENT TYPE OF TRENDS

You need to ride a trend until the weight of the evidence showed that it has reversed.

WHAT IS A TREND ?


2000


THE LONGER A TREND HAS BEEN IN EXISTENCE, THE GREATER THE IMPLICATIONS OF ITS REVERSALS ONCEA SIGNAL HAS BEEN GIVEN.


Because they last so long, SECULAR trends do not turn around that often


Primary trends are usually made of bull and bear markets


Secular trends are made of several bull and bear primary trends


INVESTORS SHOULD ALWAYS POSITION THEIR ASSETS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAIN ORPRIMARY TREND.

SHORT-TERM TRADERS SHOULD ALWAYS TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE PRIMARY TREND.

MOST LOSING TRADES ARE POSITIONED AGAINSTTHE DIRECTION OF THE MAIN TREND.


Bear market rallies are very unpredictable and hard to trade !


CLEAR DOWN-TREND

UNPREDICTABLERETRACEMENTS

CLEAR UP-TREND


THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL

The Long Term (LT) Cycle

The Intermediate Cycle

The Short-Term (ST) Cycle


PRIMARY TREND


INTERMEDIATE TREND

6 WEEKS – 9 MONTHS


PRIMARY AND INTERMEDIATE TREND INTERACTION


MARKET CYCLE MODEL


THE LONGER THE TREND, THE EASIEST IT IS TO IDENTIFY

PRICES ARE AFFECTED BY CONFLUENCE OF TRENDS


One of the principle building blocks in technicalanalysisis the idea that prices do not move up ordown in straight lines, but experience zig-zag movements


PEAK

PEAK

THROUGH

THROUGH

1

2

PEAK & THROUGH


PEAK

PEAK

THROUGH

THROUGH

1

2

LOWER PEAK & EQUAL THROUGH…


PEAK

PEAK

THROUGH

THROUGH

1

2

LOWER PEAK &LOWER THROUGH

CHANGE IN TREND


PEAK AND THROUGH DILEMNA

tarek amyunitechnical analysis the market cycle model and basic trend identification

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