tampa’s multifamily market · tampa’s multifamily market lesley deutch, principal...
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Tampa’s
Multifamily Market
Lesley Deutch, Principal
561-252-0175
DATA VS.
OPPORTUNITIES
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THE DATA
EARLY MARCH
Scrambling and Confusion
Stay at Home orders begin
Clear message banks will have capital
Family First Coronavirus Response Act
MID MARCH
10.2 million unemployment claims
S&P down 33%
CARES Act
$2 Trillion Stimulus approved
EARLY APRIL
9% of renters don’t pay rent
2+ million homeowners request forbearance
Employers file for assistance (and wait)
Consumers file unemployment (and wait)
New home sales down 85%
LATE APRIL
Free money falling from the sky!
Home sales have doubled from paltry
early April
Consumer confidence improves
Stock market up 31% over Mar. 23 low
Plans to reopen emerge
A Timeline of Events
Tampa’s back office operations may help with recovery
Tampa’s Largest Industries (by Employment)
Food Services and Drinking Places (10%)
Administrative Support (7.5%)
Ambulatory and Health Services (7%)
Specialty Trade Contractors (4.6%)
Hospitals (4.6%)
Insurance Carriers (3.6%)
Credit Intermediation (3%)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
5,009
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Tampa Apartment Completions
Source: REIS, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Apartment construction peaked in Tampa in 2019
4.8%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
20201
Tampa Apartment Vacancy Rate
Source: REIS, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Apartment vacancy remains low through Q12020. We expect it to rise.
$1,130
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
20201
2020
2021
Tampa Apartment Effective Rent
Source: REIS, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Rising vacancy rates results in declining rents.
Source: NMHC, RealPageSee Terms and Conditions of Use and Disclaimers.
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-9%-11%
-17%
Class A Class B Class C
Change in Rent Payments by April 5, 2020
Class A rent collections are stronger. People are paying rent, just late.
Source: NMHC, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
But we cannot ignore the warning signs.
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THE OPPORTUNITIES
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8%
13%
6%
3%4%
3%1%
-5%
4%
-10%
-27%
-31%
-25%
-22%
-13%-15%
-10%
5-J
an
12
-Jan
19
-Jan
26
-Jan
2-F
eb
9-F
eb
16
-Fe
b
23
-Fe
b
1-M
ar
8-M
ar
15
-Ma
r
22
-Ma
r
29
-Ma
r
5-A
pr
12
-Apr
19
-Apr
26
-Apr
US – Google Search “Apartments”
People want to move.
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Distribution to non-clients is prohibited. © 2020
3%
12%9%
-4%-6%
8%
-8%
1%
5%
0%
-19%
-38%
-12%
-28%-25%
-18%
-10%
5-J
an
12
-Jan
19
-Jan
26
-Jan
2-F
eb
9-F
eb
16
-Fe
b
23
-Fe
b
1-M
ar
8-M
ar
15
-Ma
r
22
-Ma
r
29
-Ma
r
5-A
pr
12
-Apr
19
-Apr
26
-Apr
Tampa – Google Search “Apartments”
People want to move in Tampa as well.
Accelerating trends within the apartment industry
VIRTUAL LEASES
SENSE OF COMMUNITY
The Great American Move – to Surban Living?
Or to Suburban Living?
New construction can adjust to changing preferences
Shift away from
elevator and
corridor buildings
1
Spaces for
home office or
work from home
2
Decentralization
of amenities
3
“Urban farms” in
apartment
buildings
4
Cleaner air
filtration
5
New technology
for
conveniences
6
Will Single-Family Rental be the Beneficiary?
Finding The Light
at the End of the Tunnel