tamas kovacs hungarian meteorological service climatology division seasonal forecast and an outlook...

Tamas KovacsHungarian Meteorological Service

Climatology Division

Seasonal forecastand an outlook for

Winter 2013/14 in Hungary

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013


SEECOF-9 Consensus

Outlook for Summer 2013

Low oceanic forcing no clear teleconnection patterns

limited predictability

Likelihood of above-normal temperature for the SEECOF region.

Hungary• lesser probability for exceeding average summer season temperature


SEECOF-9 Consensus

Outlook for Summer 2013

Low oceanic forcing no clear teleconnection patterns

limited predictability

Likelihood of above-normal temperature for the SEECOF region. Larger uncertainties in case of precip.

Hungary• lesser probability for exceeding average summer seasontemperature• likely near- or below-average precipitation


Summer 2013 in Hungary

The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C)

Summer mean temperature• 20.7 – 21.7 °C (Szeged: 23.3°C)




Summer mean temperature• 20.7 – 21.7°C (Szeged: 23.3°C)

Summer temperature anomaly• +1 - +2°C




All summer months above averagesummer days: 67 (56)hot days: 32 (18)heat days: 8 (1)




All summer months above averagesummer days: 67 (56)hot days: 32 (18)heat days: 8 (1)

Since 1901:

• 36th warmest June• 16th warmest July• 7th warmest August• 10th warmest Summer in 2013



The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%)

Summer precipitation• 80 – 120 mm• some regions up to 160-180• south and northeast below 80!




Summer precipitation• 80 – 120 mm• some regions up to 160-180• south and northeast below 80!

Summer precipitation anomaly• 40 – 80%




All summer months below average

wet days: 20 (28)




All summer months below average

wet days: 20 (28)

Since 1901:

• 39th direst June• 3rd driest July• 29th driest August• 6th driest Summer in 2013


Seasonal forecast

Applying ECMWF System 4 long range forecast

Producing forecasts as country averages in every month for• mean temperature (6 regions in addition)• max. temperature• min. temperature• precipitation amount (6 regions in addition)in 5-day periods for the following 3 months.

Plus an outlook for the 4-6 months as well• only mean temp. and precip. country averages

Using calibrated grid data for HungaryVerification results show that conversion to System 4 brought advance comparing to previous years.


Seasonal forecast


Monthly forecast

December 2013: slightly warmer, slightly drier

December 2013

AreaMean temperature Precipitation amount

mean climat

forecast mean climat

forecastfrom to from to

Hungary 0.6 -0.9 2.5 44 20 60Budapest area 0.9 -0.6 2.7 42 15 60Northern mountains -0.5 -2.1 1.5 33 5 50Northern Great Plain 0.0 -1.7 2.0 37 10 55Southern Great Plain 0.8 -1.0 2.8 45 20 60Southern Transdanubia 1.0 -0.7 2.7 52 25 65Northern Transdanubia 0.7 -0.7 2.3 42 15 55


Monthly forecast

January 2014: slightly warmer, drier

January 2014


mean climat



Hungary -0.8 -2.0 0.9 32 15 45Budapest area -0.6 -1.5 1.2 33 15 45Northern mountains -2.0 -3.2 -0.2 25 5 45Northern Great Plain -1.6 -2.9 0.2 27 10 45Southern Great Plain -0.8 -2.1 1.0 29 10 45Southern Transdanubia -0.4 -1.4 1.2 35 20 50Northern Transdanubia -0.8 -1.8 0.9 32 15 45


Monthly forecast

February 2014: slightly warmer, drier

February 2014


mean climat



Hungary 1.1 -0.9 2.9 29 10 40Budapest area 1.4 -0.5 3.1 27 10 35Northern mountains 0.3 -1.7 1.9 24 5 35Northern Great Plain 0.6 -1.5 2.2 26 5 40Southern Great Plain 1.1 -0.8 2.9 28 5 35Southern Transdanubia 1.3 -0.7 3.0 33 15 45Northern Transdanubia 1.1 -1.0 3.0 29 10 40


Forecast for Winter

Winter 2013/2014: slightly warmer, drier

Winter 2013/2014 outlook for HungaryMean temperature Precipitation amount

climat from to climat from to

December 0.6 -0.9 2.5 44 20 60January -0.8 -2.0 0.9 32 15 45February 1.1 -0.9 2.9 29 10 40

Thank you for your attention!


Tamas KovacsHungarian Meteorological ServiceClimatology Division

tamas kovacs hungarian meteorological service climatology division seasonal forecast and an outlook...

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