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Tae Hyun Kim The effect of climate change on corn and bio-ethanol profit in Iowa Weitao Zhang Department of Agicultural and Biosystems Engineering, Iowa State University, IA, USA

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Tae Hyun Kim What is Corn? Corn is a common large yield grain in North America, which can be used as food and renewablr energy resource. 332 million tons and 25% for corn ethanol-----2011 Corn is a C4 plant, a better power to photosynthesis at a lower CO 2 concentration Affect factors: Precipitation, CO 2, Temperature

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Tae Hyun Kim Why corn is called C4 plant?

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Tae Hyun Kim CO 2 Concentration Reference: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080423_methane.html

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Tae Hyun Kim Precipitation to Corn Precipitation is positive to the corn field in the higher latitudes area

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Tae Hyun Kim Precipitation in Iowa Iowa annual state-wide precipitation in inches from 1873-2008 (Data from Iowa Climatology Bureau 2010)

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Tae Hyun Kim Temperature to corn Higher temperature in reasonable range is positive to the corn field in the higher latitudes area Corn is very strict to climate environment for a good result Growth StagePeriodAppropriate Temperature (F) Average Minimum Temperature (F) Average maximum Temperature (F) 1900~19501950~20081900~19501950~2008 Jointing StageJune65~6960.861.478.378.2 Silking StageJuly67~7164.765.484.182.4 Ripening StageAugust to September 58~6766.166.787.286.9

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Tae Hyun Kim Temperature in Iowa

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Tae Hyun Kim Temperature in Iowa Number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 100 F in Iowa over the most recent forty years (Data from Iowa Climatology Bureau 2010)

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Tae Hyun Kim Corn production and price

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Tae Hyun Kim USDA 40 million gallon ethanol plant model

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Tae Hyun Kim Corn price and bio-ethanol plant profit

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Tae Hyun Kim Conclusion CO2 concentration are gradually increasing all over the world; Precipitation in Iowa will partly increase; Temperature will partly decrease and be narrow in summer According to compare and analyze related data, it can be predicted that corn production keeps increasing in the condition of climate change. Due to the increasing corn production and relative decreasing corn prices, corn-based ethanol plant in Iowa can get more profit from climate change, which results are different from other negative effect of climate change.

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Tae Hyun Kim Reference 1. IPCC. Summary for policymakers of climate change 2007: the physical science basis. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.. 2. Adams, R.M., Fleming, R.A., Chang, C.C., McCarl, B.A., Rosenzweig, C., 1993. A Reassessment of the Economic Effects of Global Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture. Report for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC. 3. Easterling, W.E., McKenney, M.S., Rosenberg, N.J., Lemon, K.M., 1992. Simulations of crop response to climate change: effects with present technology and currently available adjustments. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 59, 75-102. 4. Dixon, B.L., Hollinger, S.E., Garcia, P., Tirupattur, V., 1994. Estimating corn yield response models to predict impacts of climate change. J. Agric. Resou. Econ. 19, 58-68. 5. Pearce, D.W., Cline, W.R., Achanta, A.N., Fankhauser, S., Pachauri, R.K., Tol, R.S.J., Vellinga, P., 1996. The social costs of climate change: greenhouse damage and the benefits of control. In: Bruce, J.P., Lee, H., Haites, E.F. (Eds.), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change III. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 181- 124. 6. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Statistics Division (2009). "Maize, rice and wheat : area harvested, production quantity, yield 7. America's Climate Choices, Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change, National Research Council. 2010. Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309- 14588-0. 8. Feng, Hongli ; Rubin, Ofir D.; Babcock, Bruce A.Greenhouse gas impacts of ethanol from Iowa corn: Life cycle assessment versus system wide approach, Biomass and Bioenergy, 2010, Vol.34(6), pp.912-921 9. WANG Run-Yuan, ZHANG Qiang, Response of Corn to Climate Warming in Arid Areas in Northwest China, Acta Botanica Sinica, 2004, 46 (12): 1387-1392 10. Christopher J Kucharik and Shawn P Serbin, Impacts of recent climate change on Wisconsin corn and soybean yield trends, Environmental Research Letters Volume 3 (July-September 2008) 034003. 11. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp 12 Y. J. Liu E Lin, The effect of food crop yield on temperature change and agricultural investment in Chinese various areas ESSP Open Conference 2006 November 13. Jones, C A, Kiniry, J R, Farmer, D B, Dyke, P T, Godwin, D C, CERES-Maize: A stimulation model of maize growth and development, NTIS, SPRINGFIELD, VA (USA), 1985, 195 pp

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Tae Hyun Kim Questions? http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/new-study-finds-corn-based-ethanol-more-harmful-than-oil-based-gasoline.html; http://boysinourbooks.com/2015/02/06/question-of-the-week-series-couples/