Systems Assessment of New Technology in Decision-Making in Government and Industry

Dobrov, G.M.

IIASA Working Paper

WP-77-008

1977

Dobrov, G.M. (1977) Systems Assessment of New Technology in Decision-Making in Government and Industry. IIASA

Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, WP-77-008 Copyright © 1977 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/726/

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SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY IN DECISION-MAKING

IN GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY

G.M. Dobrov

June 1977 WP-77-8

Working Papersare internal publicationsintendedfor circulation within theInstitute only. Opinions or views containedherein are solely those of theauthor.

PREFACE

Since the autumn of 1976, IIASA's Managementand

TechnologyArea has been working on the task, "Dynamics

and Managementof TechnologicalChange". As an exploratory

task the feasibility of this new field of researchin IIASA

had to be defined, togetherwith the possibilities for

application and internationalcooperationin the field.

Some results are generalizedin this paper.

iii

ABSTRACT

In this paper, Technology is analyzedas (i) a specific

system consistingof "Hardware", "Software", and "Orgware";

(ii) a man-madeenvironment; (iii) an holistic object of

managementand type of organizedactivity. The concept of

SystemsAssessmentof New Technology (SANT) is proposed

and methods and models of SANT are reviewed. The author's

original ideas and ･ ｸ ｰ ･ ｲ ｩ ･ ｮ ｣ ｾ in the field are discussed.

v

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Statementof the Question •• 1

2. What is Technology? 4

3. A SystemsInterpretationof the Managementof

Technological ｄ ･ ｶ ･ ｬ ｯ ｰ ｾ ･ ｮ ｴ 27

4. Informational Model of SANT 36

5. The Methods and Models for Studying organized

Technology 43

6. The Case Study of a Macromodel for ST Policy 50

7. The Case Study of the Model for the Managementof

TechnologicalChanges 57

, 8. The Case Study of the System-EngineeringOption 65

9. IIASA's Mission and Possibilities 68

REFERENCES

vii

-1-

1. STATEMENT OF THE QUESTION

Increasingthe efficiency of the managementof technological

developmenton all levels of decision making is a vital need for

any country in the world, regardlessof the acutenesswith which

they presentlyrecognisethe finite ｣ ｨ ｡ ｾ ｡ ｣ ｴ ･ ｲ of all other

resources.

There are several circumstanceswhich necessitatesystems-

analytic basing of decision-makingin the developmentof science

and technology. Among these circumstances,the most important

are as follows:

the rapidly growing role of scienceand its technical

applications in the solution of a very broad spectrum

of problems disturbing contemporarysoceity; this

circumstanceis shapedby the regular processof trans-

forming practically applied scientific knowledge into

direct productive power and social capabilities;

the ｧ ｾ ｯ ｷ ｩ ｮ ｧ complexity of newly createdtechnological

systems, the diversity of their forms, and the intensi-

fication of their ties with other systems; this circum-

stancedeterminesthe characterand dynamic structure

of the positive and negativeconsequencesof the func-

tioning of technological systems;

the colossal amount of material and intellectual

resourcesallotted to technologicaldevelopment,which

doubles in volume approximatelyevery decade; in not a

single country, however, has this processbeen accom-

panied by a correspondinglyrapid rate of growth in the

efficiency with which these resourcesare used.

The general schemeof relations on managerialdecision-

making with applied systemsanalysis is shown in Figure 1. This

diagram reflects our poitn of view about the configuration of

what is traditionally discussedin systemsanalysis.[1,2]

Here, we understandapplied systemsanalysis as a process

of studying some of the real problems, typically by mathematical

-2-

-Experience ..Ｇｍａｎａｇｅｒｉａｌｾ･ｳｴｩｯｮＺｾ r DECISION-r.. .-:Decl.sions MAKING Answers

-

DMABOUT

SYSTEMSANALYSI

-

Suggestions,Recommendations...

Demands, Tasks

ｾ ｵ ･ ｳ ｴ ｩ ｯ ｮ ｳ

ｾ ｾ .. SCIENTIFICr KNOWLEDGE

ｾ .,•

MODELLING

INTERPRETATIONOF SCIENTIFIC

DATA ANDSOLUTIONS

Ir

A REALOBJECTSYSTEM

APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSISOF A REAL SYSTEM

Demands, Tasks••

Figure 1

••L.

-3-

means, in order to assistmanagerialpractice in the definition

of goals, allocation of resourcesand discoveringways for per-

forming an activity more efficiently. (Comparewith [3], p.ll84.)

SystemsAssessmentof Technology is one particular kind of

applied systemsanalysiswhich is, in this care, called upon to

define and evaluatethe dynamics and quality of technological

development,and of managerialactions.

Systemsanalysis in theseconditions must be interdisci-

plinary, intersectorialand carried out as an interative process.

The analysismust embracea broad range of factors, properties,

and consequencesand the decision which is being substantiated

must be directed toward the achievementnot only of near but

also of remote effects. The global characterof the problem and

the universality of the methods for its investigation naturally

harmonizewith the internationalcontent of scienceand tech-

nology as such.

Among the first facets of a systemsanalysis in this new

area are the following:

understandingof the qualitative peculiaritiesof the

man-madetechnologicalenvironment;

assessmentof the quantitativecharacteristicsof this

dynamically developing system; and

generalizationof experiencein organizing and managing

the scienceand technology (ST) process.

Also, from the very first steps, systemsanalystshave been

focussing attention on the modelling of technologicaldevelop-

ment processesand phenomena,and on the searchfor possible

ways to increasethe effectivenessof the managementof ST

activity. This last relatesboth to international technological

cooperationand to a set of universal problems of managerial

practice on governmentaland industrial levels.

-4-

2. WHAT IS TECHNOLOGY?

In the systems framework a definition such as TECHNOLOGY

has some meaningswhich complementeachother and which .should

be taken into account when we considermanagementin the field

of scienceand technology. They are:

a) A systemconsistingof a set of technical means (HARD-

WARE), methods and proceduresto use those means

effectively (SOFTWARE or KNOWHOW) and a special organ-

ization (ORGWARE) designedto provide the utilization

of the individual (1) skills and interaction between

that systemand other systemsof various natures;

b) A man-madeenvironment, that is the result of the

implementationof knowledge, which permanentlychanges

the amount and structureof the resourcesand the

opportunitiesavailable to society;

c) A processof organizedactivities and an holistic object

of social managementat different levels of decision

making.

The first aspectof systemsdefinition mentioned above is

a further developmentof .the concept traditionally acceptedin

engineeringbut is not equivalent to it. Becauseof differences

in terminology and traditions in different countries, technology

is defined either in the narrow senseas the processof produc-

tion, or more comprehensivelyas a set of actions (for example -

"social technology"). It is important to stressthat nowadays

the processof putting forth the concept of technology as a

system, unity of means, processesand organizationhas been

taking place in all countries (see Figures 2 and 3).

Many issueswhich are of crucial importance for providing

conditions for the most effective use of results of progressin

scienceand technology (both social and economic) happen to have

dependeddirectly on a systemsunderstandingof technology.

(1) Here "the individual" is "the decision maker".

('.

o

o

-5-

o

o

-6-

A) FUNCTIONAL STRUCTURE OF TECHNOLOGY

TTECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM

B) TRENDS IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE COST OF TECHNOLOGY

PAST T PRESENT T

Figure 3

FUTURE T

Some of them are:

the effective applicationof the latest developmentsin

scienceand technology;

processesof "technologicalsubstitution"[4] ;

implementationof new technicalmeans, machines, tools,

devices, etc.;

mutually beneficial internationalexchangein the field

of scienceand technology, etc.

For example, it was not so. long ago that an answer to the

question, "What should be introduced into the manufacturing

process?"was acceptablein terms of "machines" or "apparatus".

(See Figure 2.) In the presentage of revolution in scienceand

technology when there exists clear evidence that a scientific

componentof technology itself as well as principles and ideas

of the technology, has begun playing a leading role, the second

elementof systems technologyhas been properly recognised. The

answer to the above questionhas becomemore of a systemsone,

that is to say, "computer and software" or "modes of production

and means of application".

Experiencesgained during the last decadehas made it clear

that as a rule it is not enough to have only a set of technical

means or even skilled staff. It has to be supplementedby special

organizational (in more general terms, socio-economic) innovations.

To prove the point we can recall lessonslearned in connection

with:

the introduction of computerizedmanagementsystems

into practice;

the transferof agriculture to a new technologicalbase;

the creation and mastery of new transportsystems,etc.

One particu1ar.i11ustrationis progressin steel making, so

called open hearth technology (see Figure 4). (1) The first

(1) G. Surguchov, Industrial Technology: Problem Oriented Approach,RM-76-77, IIASA, Austria, November 1976.

-8-

.......

OXYGENIMPLEMENTATIONIN OHT

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

BASIC OXYGENTECHNOLOGY---1IIIIo..

""- " OPEN HEARTH" TECHNOLOGY (OHT)

CONTINUOUSSTEELMAKIN G

ｏＭＭＭＭＭＭｴＭＭＭＭｴＭＭＭｴＭＭＭＫＭＭＭｩｲＭｾｴＭＭｾＭｾｩｾＭｾＭ］Ｎｾ

-ｾ 12

5:x:-UJ 10d>-uz 8o'....u:Jo 6o0:::a.u.o 4zo

ｾ:::> 2.0

Figure 4

-9-

essentialchangewas achievedon the basis of using the new

technical means and metalurgical processes. The Secondcrucial

changewas a result of uniting information technologywith

partial innovations in the organizationof production. The

remaining achievementsin the developmentof this technological

systemare results of complex solution engineeringand organiza-

tional problems brought use an essentiallynew kind of production.

For each modern systemtechnology to achieve success,it is

urgently necessaryto have a specially designedorganization

correspondingto a level of scientific principles which are

rbought to life by the new technology and specific featuresand

functions of that technology.

We named this as ORGWARE. On the macro level ORGWARE seizes

a set of special economic and legal regulations (a system of

prices, taxes, stimuli and constraints). On the operative level

ORGWARE includes organization-structuralsolutions, procedures

for management,training of manpower, maintenanceservice and

special ways of interacting with other systems. There is a

general rule: the more potentially effective a new technology is

the more urgent the need for specially designedORGWARE.

Organizationalframework for technologicalprogresshas to

be designedwith the help of reliable special analytical methods,

as well as hardware and software are designedwith the help of

their appropriatemethods. It is one of our main researchhypo-

thesis and applied aims. In many regions of the world, a number

of very acute problems which have to be solved, demand that a

policy design for new technologiesshould be reconsideredfrom the

systemspoint of view. I wish to mention some of those problems

which are the crucial ones for various parts of the world. They

are (for example):

acceleratedgrowth of labour productivity as a result of

the wide use of new technology;

solving a complex food and agriculture problem on the

basis of systemsrealization of new technologies;

-10-

"blue revolution" in environmentand nature use

expectedin view of forthcoming technological

opportunities;

creation of a "zero-waste" technology for the whole

chain of productive processes,from discovering

resourcesto the finished goods utilization.

The experiencegained, both through IIASA investigationsand

our previous scientific activies, strongly supports the idea that

in caseswhere organizationaland managerialaspectsof systems

technologiesdo not get proper considerations,the effect expected

by society for solving exciting problems is not often achieved,

in spite of considerableinvestmentmade in the other two components

of technology.

The specific organization (ORGWARE) should be designedas

both problem-orientedand machine-oriented. There are also some

whole-systemcriterions: minimization of time-delays, optimal

storageand using information, etc. A developmentof models and

methods for designing the ORGWARE of new technologiesis one of

the most acute problems of systemsanalysis in the management

and technology field.

Case studies on specific kinds of technology which are in

pogress in various IIASA Areas and Programs could be a good basis

for the applied analysis of experienceand problems of the system

evolution of new technologies. This is one of the points of our

common researchinterests.

The secondaspectof the systemsconceptof technology is to

a considerableextent similar to the systemsapproachadopted in

ecology. Water, land, air, etc., are studied by specific sciences.

Each of those scienceshas its own language, indicators and models

which very often happen to be incompatible. At the same time the

importanceof social considerationof those elements in the frame-

work of the theory of ecological systemsand practical environ-

ment managementhas been widely recognizedand those issuesare

rapidly becoming more acute.

-11-

Various "familiesll of technologieshave been createdand are

being used, as well as those that are being masteredat present,

form a new kind of unity (see Figure 5). This unity specifically

interactswith nature and society. An applied systemsanalysis

approachto complex technological environment is the only way to

elaborateand put into operationsuch conceptswhich are of

practical importance as "rate of technologicalsubstitution",

"a quality of technologicalenvironment", "a technologicalrisk"

and ,. flexibility of technological system". It means the capacity

of the technologicalenvironment to accept new scientific and

technologicalopportunitiesand to respond to changesof social,

economic and ecologic demands,etc., and also to those which will

develop in the future. Figure 6 shows one example of the ordered

list of future technologies (so called "candidatetechnologies").

There is cornmon understandingthat an analytical policy

design is an important and final step of modern systemsanalysis.

Many issueslike natural resources,environment, energy complexes

and agri-production, human settlementsand healthcaresystems

that are subjectsto which systemsanalysis is applied, can be

reasonablyexplainedonly when long-rangescientific and tech-

nological factors and socio-economiccriteria related to these

factors are taken into account.

In fact, we deal with the state of affairs that is precipitated

by technology (see Figure 7) in every case of policy design for

various kinds of activity (industry, agriculture, public health

service, administration,etc.).

In Figure 7, available technologies,within its family

(beginning with widely known and practically used ones, to hypo-

thetical or 'theoreticallypossible ones) are all orderedalong

an axis of TAV . The axis ET is used to rank a "feasibility index"

which characterizesthose technologieswhich are economically

applicable and those that are not (under existing conditions).

The location of that region of the statedspacethat is taken

into considerationin a processof policy design changesrather

rapidly. On one hand, successin the R&D field expandsa set

of technologiesavailable from the viewpoint of scienceand

ｾ｜ -12-

Figure 6 CANDIDATE TECHNOLOGIES (Field: E; TF-73)

PRO B A B L E P R ACT I CAL USE U N TIL

1 9 8 3

REGISTER PRIOR- BRIEF NAME SPECIALOF(FILE) ITY TECHNOLOGY DEFINITELY POSSIBLY EQUAL MORE NO DEFINITELY REMARKSYES YES YES/NO THAN YES NO

A B 'A B A B A B A B

7 1 Breeders 6.5 8.1 33.3 32.4 21.4 24.6 A=75E-53/- 18.7 13.5 22.6 18.972 B=37

6 2 Benzin 30.7 37.0 48.0A=75

E-25/- 47.0 13.3 4.3 5.3 6.2 2.7 4.515 from coal B=46

....,

· · · · · · · · · · · · ·· · · · · · · · · · · · ·· · · · · · · · · · · · ·

II-'wI

A

B

==

Experts in the subjectE-53.

Experts in the field - E

Ek

Ej

E2

EC1

E.r

T1 T2

II ,

- _._ - -1- II - -1---'

I I-.- - I - ＭｾＭＭＭ

I II

ｾ ,BI

TAV

I.......c=I

The Spaceof ｔ ･ ｣ ｨ ｮ ｯ ｬ ｯ ｧ ｩ ｣ ｡ ｬ ｬ ｾ Ｍ ｣ ｡ ｵ ｳ ･ ､

Statesfor Policy Des1gn

Figure 7

-15-

technology. On the other hand the society become richer or having

been influenced by some acute needs, can changeeconomic criteria

by itself and improvement in technologycan lead to better "cost-

benefit" indices.(1) It is in order to mention that modern tech-

niques of systemsanalysis applied in the field of technology

(technological forecasting, technology assessment,choice of

technologicalalternatives,etc.) not only permit analysisof

those tendenciesin terms of quality and structure, but also

definitely estimatefuture states in the space in quantitative

terms. Here the main applied senseof the "models of technological

substitutions" and the methodsof "cross impact analysis" were

successfullydevelopedduring past years.[5] For decision makers

it is quite evident (see Figure 7) that trajectoriesA,B or C

differe considerablyfrom the impact on the results of modelling

used in policy design.

The above approachcould serve as a solid base for coopera-

tion of systemsanalystsengagedin the developmentof theory

and methodology for technology analysis and those scientistswho

are mainly interestedin systemsanalysis, modelling and policy

design which demandsthat scientific and technologicalfactors

should be taken into account.

It is natural that a senseof the axes of the state space

can vary considerably. For example, in some cases,it is of

special interest to considerand estimatethe perspectivefor

minimizing technologicalwastes of resourcesincluding the creation

of the so-called "O-WASTE" technologiesin the chain of extraction-

manufacturing-utilization. We may think that this aspectof

cooperationwill turn out to be an attractive one both for areas

dealing with non-renewableresources(oil, coal) and for those

concerningproblems of renewableresources (forests, land) as well

as areasdealing with resourcestransformedcyclically (water,

money) .

In connectionwith the aspectsunder discussion, it is worth

noting that the so-calledWELMM approachto systemsexamination

(Water, Energy, Land, Manpower and Materials) is consideredin

(1) One particular kind of such a diagram is known in geology asMcKelvey's Diagram. We propose a more universal approach.

-16-

many casesto be complementaryto resourcesfor development.

I believe that applied systemsanalysis has come to be

understoodas the successor failure of R&D activities as well

as efforts directed toward creation, transfer and masteringnew

technology is of vital importancefor WELMM estimatesof resources

and the future of the processof their mutual sUbstitution and

effective utilization which is consideredto be the main factor

for existing resourcesfor the further developmentof mankind.[6]

To put it in anotherway, it is high time the WELMM approachwas

combined with the STM (Science, Technology, Management) approach

in the methodology and practice of systemsanalysis (see Figure 8).

The third aspectof the systemsconcept of technology assumes

that technology should be studied as a unique object of management.

In this case, the managementof technologiesinfluences the

activities and behaviour of individuals, collectives and organiza-

tions, using the knowledge, investmentand natural resources

available (Figure 9). Then, technology is treatedby ASA (Applied

SystemsAnalysis) from the unified viewpoint as a chain: research-

development- project realization - technology transfer - innova-

tion - mastering- supporting technologicalbenefits - full

substitutionwith new technologies.

However, betweenthe benefits and levels of those activities

on the one hand and the final economic indices on the other, only

implicit connectionsexist through complicatedsocial and economic

mechanisms,so-called "national engines". The attemptsof their

study looks encouragingonly on the level of macro models and

taking into account essentialtime-lag between "input" and "output".

Such connectionsare among the main sourcesof data for the esti-

mation of the benefits of technologicaldevelopment.

Systemsanalystsuse such conceptsas "technology as integrity",

"a vector of technologies", "effectivenessand quality of technology

as a whole" and other social conceptsof special importance for

national and internationalstudies. ProfessorP.K. M'Pherson has

had a positive influence on efforts in this direction at IIASA.

Our discussionfollows his ideas on Integral Model of Technological

Change. I would like to note that the data collected and analyzed

W E L M M approach + S T M approach = A S A approach

W E L M M S T M A S Aa n a a a c e a p y nt e n t n i c n p s a I

e r d e p e h a 1 t 1 I-'-..J

r 9 r 0 n n 9 i e y I

Y i w c 0 e e m sa e e 1 m d s i1 r 0 e ss 9 n

y t

Figure 8

Investments

Information

W ELM M

TECHNOLOGY

Wastes

Figure 9

BenefitIｾ

coI

-19-

during the study has createda basis for further interfpretation

of correlationsbetweendevelopmentindices of certain technologies

in the statesand different policies concerningthose technologies

(see Figure 10).

Let IT be an index characterizinga certain classof tech-

nologies. For example, this can be an amount of energy per

individual occupied in production as it was in M'Pherson'sstudy.

Figure 10 presentsdata for ｣ ｯ ｵ ｾ ｴ ｲ ｩ ･ ｳ (1), (2), (3) and (4), and

the order of indexes correspondsto a chronological row. Let I gin its turn be chosen from a set of social indicators. For

example, in statisticsused during the study, there was data

about levels of GNP per capita.

Data of this kind which is known to us far from being com-

plete and homogenous. The results of processingthem should be

consideredas the first approximationof real figures. However,

in spite of the fact that we should be as careful and scrupulous

as possiblewhen consideringand interpreting such data, we could

draw attention to essentialdifferencesof policy in the field of

technology.

The curve (1) representsa common practice in many countries.

The shapeof the curve (2) which correspondsto when the tech-

nological growth takes place without a growth of social indicators,

can be positively explainedonly by the fact that during short

periods of development,some actions aimed at forming technolo-

gical potential or bridging a gap which exists in some fields of

technology as soon as possible, were taken at the expenseof

national efforts. The curve (3) corresponds-tothe caseof

"dangerous"policies in this respect.

Recently, we have come acrossmore countrieswho consciously

follow policies of the type (4). This case shows the possibilities

for increasing the social technologiesdecreases(for example,

those technologiesthat require a lot of labour or energy). For

example, this policy has been carried out in some Scandinavian

countries. Such changesin policy usually also mean a transition

from extensivemethods of scientific and technologicaldevelopment

to intensive ones. In the latter case, higher quality and

-20-

-N M

E-t E-t E-t- - -.- 1I

II

II

ｾ

o..--l

-21-

effectivenessof systemstechnologiesare consideredto be the

main source for solving problems which exist at presentin contrast

to the former where more suppliesof machinery are used for the

same purpose.

The concept of technologicalpotential is of special impor-

tance when a systems technology "as a whole" is treatedas a process

of organizedactivities. The technologicalpotential is

quantified capabilitiesof a certain state or region of the world

for the creation and application of new technologieswhich meet

the challengesof further social and economic development.

The conceptof "technologicalpotential" being complementary

to the well known conept of "scientific potential"[7] together "

form a systemsconceptof "scientific and technologicalpotential"

which is of special importance for analyzing problems of inter-

national cooperationin the field of scienceand technology and

for preparingmutually beneficial plans and programs of scientific

and technologicalexchangeand transfer of technologiesas well as

for global, national or industrial technologicalpolicy design.

Experiencesgained by our country[8,9] and a lot of studies

carried out by UNESCO[10] , CMEA[8], OECD[ll] and other international

institutions as well as recent studiesof the problems concerning

information technology[12] , have made it possible to presenta

method for defining an index of technologicalpotential (TP) as

follows. The main componentsof TP can be defined; they are the:

economical component;

material and technologicalcomponent;

manpower component; and

information component.

For each of the above components,variables characterizing

functional capabilitiesused in the definition of "technological

potential" are identified.

About 12-15 ｶ ｡ ｲ ｩ ｾ ｩ ｴ ｩ ･ ｳ are defined and some value of "weight"

V is assignedto each of them (EV"= 100). The "weight" reflects

an impact of variableson the "technological potential". They

can be calculatedby means of factor analysis and econometric

-22-

models of the production function type with so-called "Abramovitz

reminder".

A forecastinghypothesis"Base of 1990" or "Base of 2000"

are in preparation. They are, in fact, a scenarioof the future

for a country. This hypothesisis used to compare policies from

the viewpoint of possibilities necessaryto provide a basis for

the future progressin the social and economic field. It is natural

that the hypothesis includes only aggregatedestimatesof macro-

variablesof the "technological potential". I would like to note

that there have been studies showing how biases in basic estimates

influence current estimatesand forecasts. They have made it

possible to adjust the whole systemof estimatesreasonablywhen

I , , b" 1 d [13]po lCles are elng lmp emente .

Current statesof variablesof TP for a certain country or

world region are calculatedin terms of parts of corresponding

values of "the Base". Then a systemsestimateof the "technological

potential" index ｾ ｳ defined as a weighted sum of all the variables.

The methodology of technology potential assessmentpermanently

improves. The results gained permit analysisof dynamics, pers-

pectives and needsof countriesand regions of the world in

expandingand enhancingan international scientific and techno-

logical cooperationand mutually beneficial exchangeof new

technologies.

It would be especially interestingto study the technological

potential of a number of regions of the world within this frame-

work. The regions to be studied could be selectedby following

the example of Mesarovich and Pestel or by organizing the study

as part of IIASA's program. It might be interesting to estimate

to what extent the countries and the regions are "technologically"

ready to meet the "green revolution", the "blue revolution" and

other crucial changesin scienceand technology.

This aspectof the systemsconceptionof organized technology

can be discussednot only on the macro level but also on operative

levels of the life cycle of specific technologicalsystems. (See

Figures,llaand lIb). Here °1,°2 ... °7 denote appropriatestages

of systemsanalysis and decision making.

-23-

The practice of technologicalchangemanagementknows some

alternative trends:

(i) the rate of substitutionsof technology generations

increases. During the 20th century the time-periods

for changesbecomestwo times smaller about every

twenty years;

(ii) the time and cost of R&D parts Qf technology life

cycle (Figure lla) enlarge. During the last 5-7 years

the statistically estimatedlength of projects

increasedby 1,3 to 1,5 times and their cost - more

than twice;

(iii) the time spent on systems.analysisand decision making

in organizationalmanagementstends towards growth.

Known data togetherwith our observationsshow that

the summary time of waiting for managerialdecisions

TD can exceedthe general duration of all other actions

of the life cycle. The averageestimation is:

D7ｾ TD = ＨｾＷＱＯＳＩｔｌＮｃＮＧ

1

TL . C. representstime-length of life cycle.

The active patent and licence policy, internationalcoopera-

tion and technology exchangeare important for all countries,

but especiallydevelopedones, as an effective option in the above

mentioned constraints. Applied systemsanalysis of this problem

is topical for IIASA.

Technologicallydevelopedcountriesalso have more experience

in solving problems in other ways: MBO (Managementof Objectives),

PPBS (Planning, ｐ ｲ ｯ ｧ ｲ ｡ ｾ ｩ ｮ ｧ Ｌ Budgeting System), Selectionof

Portfolio R&D Ideas, Technological Program Risk Evaluation, etc.

The USSR has experienceof long-rangeand operativeplanning of

R&D, Goal-orientedprogramsof TechnologicalAdvance, improve-

ment of managerialefficiency by applying the set of systems

demands - "speed up", "wide spread" and "complete" utilization of

available R&D results to the life cycle of technology. The

LIFE CYCLE OF ORGANIZED TECHNOLOGY

IN+==,

•••D3

ChoJ.ce ofTe.ch . chaU§les

T 1

T2

T.J.

R &_DNew

R&Dideas

D2about

I • R&D I • Protot:¥pes& TestJ.ng

Values

Resources

Needs

SANT

ST Possibilities

Demands G • • R&D • I

New STPossibi-lities

G. '

Figure lla

G • '

IIVlJ1I

D7about

Finishingof Using &Production

R&D

D6Analysis of

Effectiveness

Ch

Maintenance

DSabout

Innovation

R&D • I

Ch • I

P

ProductionD4

aboutProduction

R&D

Ch

•••

G • ' P

U. IG. ' G

Figure lIb

-26-

generalizationof such experienceis a promised field of inter-

national cooperationfor applied systemsanalysis.

Finally, our answer to the question "What is Technology?"

given from the viewpoint of the M & T Area of ASA. This can be

summarizedin the next three main classesof problems for studying

technologyas an organizedsystem (see Figure 12).

APPLIED ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY

AS AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM

CASE

CASE

I

II

CONTENT

A system that consistsof tech-nical means ("hardware"),principles and methods ("soft-waren or "knowhow"), andspecial organization ("orgware")

A man-madeenvironmentandmaterializedknowledge whichpermanentlymodifies the volumeand structureof availablenatural resourcesand mankinds'possibilities

LOGICAL SCHEME

CASE III

A processof organizedactivityand a holistic object ofmanagementon the differentlevels of decision-making

·Figure 12

-27-

3. A SYSTEMS INTERPRETATION OF THE MANAGEMENT OF

TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT

The activity of people and organizationsin the investigation,

creation, transfer, and utilization of technological innovations

in all countries and in various forms is directed by:

- organs of legislative and executive state power;

leading organs in various social and economic

sectors;

- the leadersof the organizationsand collectives

involved in the processof technologicaldevelop-

ment; and

- various communities and groups of people concerned

with scienceand technology or with use of possi-

bilities connectedwith this.

It is natural that the social essenceof this complex process

is different in different countries (especially the systemsof

values, criteria, and preferenceswhich determinethe goal func-

tion and characterof managerialdecisions; and also systemsfor

stimulation of the processof technologicalactivity itself).

Also different are the organizationalstructureand procedures

of decision-makingorgans. Often there are grounds for'discuss-

ing these as fundamentallydifferent, mutually competitive, or

contradictory to one another in some regard. This happensnot

only in the case of internationalanalysis,but also on· the scale

of each country being examined.

Nevertheless,the experienceof managing technologicaldeve-

lopment which has been accumulatedand is being accumulatedin

various countries allows us also to distinguish some general

systemscharacteristicsof this process.

In Figure 13 is presenteda generalizedschemeof the inter-

action among the basic elementsof the structure for management

of national ST activity. In the terms adoptedby UNESCO, this

is a "cybernetic model of the national R E; D system".(l)

(I) Following the recommendationsof the Scienceand TechnologyPolicies Division of UNESCO, this model is used in the analysisof systems for managementof ST activity that have been estab-lished in various countries, and also in the designing of suchsystems for developing countries. The author has taken part inprojects for Iraq and the UAR.

IN00I

IIII

contacts

Publica-tion,storage,dissem-ination& "pack-aging"of results

FEEDBACK

R&DunitsScientistsandEngineers

ServicesOrganiza-tions forScience&Technology

Bank ofdata onscientif-ic & tech.potential STP surveof the Workingcountry ect tech. transfers

I Information on theI results of R&D

Sectorialpromotionat statelevel ofR&D

CYBERNETIC MODEL OF NATIONAL R&D SYSTEM

"Valve" which· I

realizesdistribution

Figure13

Means forsupport ofnationalS & T andR&Dactivity

Nationalsystemofgoals forscience &technologyadvance

tilQ)

§ttlHt)'loHｾ

Hotil 8r:: ｾttl t-'r-lClｾ :::>

tI:lｾ

r:: ｾQ) 8S .ex:0..8o CJ)r-lQ):>Q)

Cl

r-lttlr::o

.r-!ｾ

ttlZ

IIr

USERS IExploit- Iation ofresults I

IIIIIIII

I I II I I

Cent- Data banks on I I Iral economic, techn- I IStati- ｾ {ical, social &stics other parameters I I IOffice of the nation I

14--:------ I _ ｾ ｾ ｾ. ZONE I - - - '" I ｾ ZONE II Executive powerat ZONE III

I Legislative & executingpower at state level I level· of operationalmanage- I Users Iment of R&D organizations

-29-

Among the characteristicsof this mechanismare the following:

(a) managerialfunctions are separatedbetweenthe levels

of legislative and executive power, direct produc-

tion of technologicalresults, and their practical

use (from which data about the consequencesof tech-

nological activity are obtained);

(b) fundamentalsignificancehas to be given to the

effective functioning of developedfeedbackchannels

for transmissionof data about the dynamics and

qualitative structureof technology;

(c) the systemmust include well-developedservicesper-

forming the "memory" function - the accumulationand

systematizationof data about the needs,potential,

activity, and results of technologicaldevelopment;

(d) decisionsmade at all levels of managementmust take

accountof the significant time-lag which exists in

the systembetween "input" and the signals really

received through the feedback channels, in view of

which the managementinformation must include specially

future-orientedassessments.

The experienceof many countries, and their sciencepolicy

studies, show that failure to meet any of the indicated demandsfor

ST managementleads to a sharp reduction in its effectiveness.

In all known cases, losses from incomplete use of technological

possibilities exceed the colossaleconomic and social benefits

which society receives from technologicalprogress. Duplication

of technologicalwork, decelerationof the R&D cycle, irrational

structuring of efforts, and failure of scienceand educationto

meet national needs - all these are examplesof direct losses.

Growth of the gap in levels of developmentof various countries,

delay in the "substitution" and utilization of new resourcesand

unforeseennegative ecological and social effects - these are

examplesof losseswhich will be felt through generationsof

people, ideas, and things.

-30-

In many countries, original and valuable experienceis now

being accumulatedin the perfecting of national systemsfor the

organizationand ｭ ｡ ｮ ｾ ｧ ･ ｭ ･ ｮ ｴ of ST activity. Such measuresare

also being taken on the international level '(by the specialized

agenciesof the UN, CMEA, GECD, etc.). This experienceand the

problems newly being raised by it are a very important object of

applied systemsanalysis deserving IIASA's attention.

In recent years, in the USSR, the USA, and other countries,

special investigationshave been conductedregularly and on an

ever greaterscale, oriented toward the analysis and comprehensive

evaluationof the state-of-artin various technologicalareas,

toward the forecastingof their development, and toward estima-

tion of their possible influence on the economy,on resources,on the

environment, on other technical systems, and on society itself.

Such systems investigations,undertakenon behalf of agencies

which formulate and executeST policy, have urgently required

state organizationof researchas. well ,as professionalparticipa-

tion by systemsanalysts. Applied systemsanalysisof this kind

is known in world practice under various names:"Technology

Assessment","Technology Forecasting"and others. The general

rubric which encompassesall of these concepts is "Systems

Assessmentof New Technologies" (SANT).

To understandthe essenceof SANT, one must bear in mind that the

discussionis not about traditionally practicedspecial engineering

assessmentsbut about "s Y S T EMS ASS E SSM E N T S", in

which all the basic featuresof modern systemsanalysis are

inherent. These features include:

- the multifacetednature of the factors, properties,

and consequencesexamined;

- an interdisciplinaryand interinstitutional approach;

- attentionnot only to near but also to remote effects,

needs, and possibilities;

- the combination of quantitative and qualitative

analysis of situations and objects; and

- an orientation toward the practiceof decision making. \

-31-

Further, we should note that the definition of "N E W" pre-

supposesattention to phenomenaarising or potentially possible

as a result of the use of the latest achievementsof science,

and that the concept of "T E C H N a LOG Y", as mentioned above

implies not only technical innovations as such but organizational

and managerial innovations as well.

In the compositionof SANT (see Figure lll> are included the

following:

- TechnologicalForecasts(TF);

- Evaluation of the consequencesof the developmentof

technology ("Technology Assessment",or TA);

- Evaluation of the variants for technologicalpolicy

("AJternative Technologies",or AT) ;

- Evaluation of the "usefulness"of contemplatedand

on-going researchand developmentefforts ("Evalua-

tion of R&D", or ER); and

- Various "indicators" of the level of ST potential of

countries and regions ("Science-and-technologyPotential

Indicators", or SI).

+Technology Forecasting (TF)

+Technology Assessment (TA)

+Alternative Technologies (AT)

+Evaluation of R&D (ERD)

ST Potential Indicators (STP)

= SAN T

(SystemsAssessmentof New Technologies)

Figure14

In other words, SANT (= TF + TA + AT + ERD + STP) is a sys-

tem of data for the basing of ST managementdecisions.

-32-

The processof the professionalformation of SANT as an

element in the analytic substantiationof ST policy takes place

in the essentiallydifferent socio-political, economic, and

technologicalcontextsof various countries. The systems

for analysis and evaluationof technologicaldevelopmentwhich

have been formed in various countries in the last 5-8 years,

though they have common structural and functional features (see

Figures 15 and 16 for examplesof the USA and UkSSR), nevertheless

are essentiallydifferent in their social context and procedures

of activity.

This last circumstance,however, must not hide from us the

possibility of a generalizedpresentationof the informational

model of the formation and use of ｾ ｹ ｳ ｴ ･ ｭ ｳ Analysis of New

!echnology.

In the author'sopinion, it is useful to distinguish between

three levels of technologicaldevelopment,namely, "technological

changes", "technological advance", and "technologicalprogress"

(see Figure 17).

At the center of attention of systemsanalysts in this case

is the basic complex of ST activities, including research,

development, and the adoption of new technology. Society

invests in ST activity a national resource (known, overall, as

ST potential and consistingof skilled manpower, scientific

ideas, material and technical resources,and economical

possibilities). As results of this activity, society receives

new or transformedtechnologicalpossibilities. Managementof

processesof research,development,and transferof innovation

is otherwise called "managementof technologicalchanges".(1)

Use of newly emerging technologicalpossibilities in the

sphereof practical activity (in the most general sense,

including industry, agriculture, medicine, everyday life,

culture, politics, educationetc., and also the subsequent

(1) In this casewe are speakingabout only one facet ofproduction (N. B. See Figure17 - "Production" with star * )i.e. adoption of ST results.

Figure 15 PRESIDENT OF US

Advisors and WhitehouseOfficeManagement. 1 1 of National

Congress10nal and Multi- -Research N t' 1 ｾ. ." . a 10na

l/) SerV1ce M1n1str1es & E t ' &al al.. n erpr1ses+l !Ii " NSF Departments of C t'm_, orpora 10ns

ｾ ｾ ｾ ｩ ［ ｾ ｾ ｾ ｾ Ｚ Ｚ :policy I ｾＺ･ｾｾｾＺｾｾｬ ｾ 0'" fa 1V1S10ns oro Research Interagency hntJ • d' " f Tec 0-0' - Env1ronmental TA Coor - 01V1S10ns 0 E' 1_ . . conom1cal::: & Natural 1nat10n Technology P 1"

',-i 0 1CYo Office of Resources Panel Forecasting, h'ro Researc

U) - '0 Technology .. - Education, TA & Policy TA & TFU) § Assessment Welfare & Researchｾ +l Others

8 ｾ Technology National Aca-ｾ ｡ ｬ Assessment d . S'em1es C1en::e ,

l/) l/) Board ----lio E' . I.L Consult1ngU) al -,. & ng1neer1ng"'- .,::J > ' , . Organ1zat10IE

:j ';ti Soc1et1es L.l for LIII ',-i Il" ..--ｾ ｾ H .. General I. Ad-Hoc Comrni- Technologyall/) 0. Account Office .- tt f TA Forecasting&

l/) TA ees oral. • " f AssessmentM. 0; Adv1sory 01V1S10n 0 Ｑｬｉｾ ---,

& ｾ Council Exploratory U ' , t':0 h d n1verS1 1es ｾIi-l ｾ Researc an --o +l Systems ResearchCen-all/) U) Analysis t h' Non-ProfitOTA. res,Teac 1ng _ .. Ig S· t' f' .. Congress10nal.. Research C p.--..... Research ..---_ C1en 1 1C ... d ff' .- 1" ourses, ro- . ,ｾ Staff Bu get 0 1ce App 1cat10ns jects of TA Organ1zat10IE

I ｾ ｾ J d ｾ d' 'd 1ｾ Contractorsan 1n 1V1 uaL- ｾ Ｍ Ｍ ｾ Ｎ Ｎ consultantsfor the system 4-I ｾ Assessmentof New Technologies

Governmentsof the US StatesI

ZONE of Legislative Power ZONE of Executive Power ZONE of Business&Private Initiative

IWWI

-34-

Figure 16 ORGANIZATION FOR SANT IN THE UKRAINIAN SSR

Chairman of WG

Scientific Sec.of the Committee

Committee Members

Chairman of Com.

The SciencepolicyStudies Departmentof theAcademy of Sciences':ofthe Uk.S.S.R. (part ofthe CyberneticsCentre)

Developing Policies & Methods

Works out a permanentsystemof continuous forecasting

Collection & Gen-eralizationof Interim

Com. Work Data

Ｏ Ｑ ＾ ｲ Ｚ ｾ ［ ｴ Ｇ Ｌlof a Perma-\f nent System\of ContinuousI,Forecasting/

" /'- ./- --Require-ments

Objective ofthe forecast

Tasks WorkingStages

Chairmanof theMethods Grp. (MG)

Term of theforecast

Sections

Interim ScientificTechnical Committeefor the problem to

.-------------------fII be forecast

-35-

RESEARCH SCIENCE GENERAL

DEVELOPMENTAND

PRODUCTION* POLICY

TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGICAL

CHANGES POLICY AND

TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCE

ECONOMY

T E C H N 0 LOG I CAL PROGRESS

Figure 17

processof R 6 D)gives a broad range of effects. Ideas about

theseeffects are quantitatively and qualitatively different

according to their time-horizon. Comparisonof the assessments

of effects with estimatesof the expendituresfor their emergence

gives data on effectiveness- one of the most important elements

of SANT. A broader set of systemsassessmentsof new techno-

logies is obtainedas a result of the analysisof such data in

the context of needs and values, expressedwithin the system

of scienceand technologicalpolicy.

Managementof the processesof forming and implementing ST

policy, including the acquisition, distribution, and utilization

of technological results, is otherwise known as the management

of technologicaladvance.

In the case in which we use criteria, priorities, and ideas

about needs and values - including data from the sphereof socio-

economic and general statepolicy - and in which we also examine

the whole range of profound influences on society exertedby the

primary and secondaryeffects of the use of technological innova-

tions, we have grounds to speak about technologicalprogress.

Here we are discussingthe problems of the social managementof

technologicalprogressin the largestpossible sense.

-36-

4. INFORMATIONAL MODEL OF SANT

The proposedinterpretationof the managementof ST progress

is the basis for a structural-informationalmodel of the genera-

tion and utilization of SANT. Figurel8 shows the functional

interactionsand informational connectionsamong the basic

elementswhich are included in the subjectof our research. The

basic idea of this model is that:

information about the dynamics and quality of

developmentof technology is one of the most

important prerequisitesfor wise management

of technologicalprogress.

This idea is also the basis for integrationof the two under-

lined elementswithin our researchtask in IIASA.

The interconnectionsamong the elementsof "decision making"

shown in the illustration have fundamental significance for the

conceptionof SANT being developedhere. One of these elements

is the managementof technologicalchanges. The following are

typical casesof such management:

- guidanceof the activity of complex organizationswhich

are engaged in R&D cycle;

- monitoring of a goal-orientedprogram of R&D; and

- managementof the "life cycle" of a particular

technological system- from the setting of the task

for its creation, through many stagesof research,

development,experimentation,manufacture,utilization,

modernizationof the functioning technology, and

finally replacementof the given technology by another

which is more advanced.

The basic content of SANT is defined in this case both by

the specific professionalwork carried out at time t 2 (usually

of an engineeringnature), and also by the possibilities for

obtaining systematicallycoordinatedassessmentsof other data

distributed in time. A SANT performed at time t. is basedon1

data about one's own and others' past experience;about existing

GENERAL POLICY AND ECONOMY

POTENTIALI

w-...J'I

andData

RESULTS

p*

logicalChanges

D

TECHNOLOGY POLICY

Jp\

R

60

\Data about new possibilitiesiii

ｾ ｒ ｜

/------

Criteria andPriorities

Managementof TechnologicalAdvance

Managementof TechnologicalProgress

Figure 18

-38-

needs and resources;about operative criteria and priorities;

about possibilities newly createdby science, technology and

production; and other data. A ｓｎｾｔ performed at time t l is

basedon data about expectedeffects, consequences,and effective-

ness; about dynamically changing future demands and value systems;

about forecastedcharacteristicsof competing (alternative) tech-

nologies; about the dynamics and structureof neededresources;

etc.

In the case of managementof ST advance, there occurs an

iterative processof mutual supplementationand substitutionof

SANTs performed at times t l , t 2 , ... , t i • For example,' in the

caseof decision-makingabout the distribution of resourcesfor

a planned complex of ST work, we are at time t l , and all "feed-

back" from SANT at points t 2 , ... , ti

must in point of fact be

forecasted. The same applies to data about new possibilities of

science, technology, and production, and estimatesof future

needs, demands, and values. However, in the case of solving a

managementproblem of summing up results, we are at point t., andｾ

SANT(tl

) and SANT(t2) Dave for us the characterof aata preserved

in the system'smemory.

We should note, therefore, that both SANTs themselves,per-

formed at any moment in time, and also decisionstaken on the

basis of them, not only influence (through information) the object

of management;they also transform the experienceof ST policy,

and they enrich the experiencewhich is being accumulatedin the

broaderspheresof socio-economicpolicy. The streamsof data

which have their source here - data necessaryfor the managementof

ST progress- can also have their source in the systemsassess-

ments of various kinds of social and economic indicators (which we

shall not discuss).

The structureof demandsplaced upon the content of SANT comes

from the practice of making decisionsbasedon these assessments.

For examinationof these demands,we use a morphological box of

the structureof decisions concerning the managementof ST

activi ty. 1 In Figure19, this box is presentedwith three class-

1 This approach is set forth in greaterdetail in [14]

-39-

Figurel9 MORPHOLOGICAL BOX FOR DECISION MAKING IN SCIENCE·AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY

GOALS

Setting of Tasks

Ranking of Priorities

Manpower

Technical Means

Internal Efficiency

of the Potential

External Efficiency of

R&D Results

I N S 0 T IN A E R E NT T C G A DE I T A M IR 0 0 N VN N R I IA A A S DT L L A UI T A0 I LN 0A NL

I II III IV V«-----------...ＬＮＮＭＭＭＭＭＭＭｾLEVELS OF

MANAGERIAL ACTIVITY

-40-

ificatory axes: the goals of managementdecisions; the means of

affecting the managedsystem, called for by these decisions; and,

naturally, the levels of managementcorrespondingto the object

of management.

Both practical experienceand theoretical investigationsinto

the problems of ST managementjustify the system'sdemandsupon

the routine of management,which in the given case can be form-

ulated in the following way: Managementcan count on stability and

increasingsuccessonly if, in its decisionsand implementations,

it achievessystematicagreement:

(a) Among the choice of goals, the means for their

effective achievement,and the resources (potential)

required for this;

(b) In the harmonious use of the whole complex of manage-

ment methods (administrative, economic, professional-

technical, and social-psychological);and

(c) Among the applicationsof these principles in

practical acts and proceduresof managementon the

various levels of ST activity.

It is natural that SANT, as a specializedkind of information

for the substantiationof managementdecisions, must:

- contain data for judging the goals of ST activity,

the levels and effects of their achievement,and

the neededor expendedresources;and

- reflect experiencewith and demands for improvement

of the organizational (legal), economic, "engineering",

and socio-psychologicalregulation of ST activity.

The information containedin a SANT must characterizethese

aspectsof new technology from an intersectorialviewpoint and

for ｶ ｡ ｲ ｩ ｯ ｵ ｾ time horizons.

If to this we add the obligatory scientific demandsof quan-

tification, comparability, and systematicpresentation,then the

methodologicaldifficulties of this area of applied systeffis

analysis become even more obvious.

-41-

However, under insistentpressureby the demandsof life,

thesedifficulties have not halted either the practitionersof

management,who are formulating and using SANT on a broad scale,

or the systemanalysts, who have placed their professional

knowledge at the service of solving this problem.

The types of activity carried out by specialistsin applied

systemsanalysis regarding SANT and the managementof ST progress

as a whole are shown in Figure20. Each concrete researcheror

group usually concentrateson one or a few kinds of activity.

In every case, however, they are called upon to perform an excep-

tionally important function - to provide, by their analytic methods,

feedback from the experienceof life (including also "future

experience") into the practice of management.

\

-42-

Figure 20 KINDS OF ACTIVITY FOR SPECIALISTS OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

Improvementof Managerial Qualifications

Participation in the Managerial Practice

Information of Society about Scienceand Technology Policyand about Results of SANT

I.fEANS

"LEVELS

I

(

Applied Analysis

System-Engineering

,Theoretical and ,Methodological Foundations , ,

GOALS

-43-

5. THE METHODS AND MODELS FOR STUDYING

ORGANIZED TECHNOLOGY

The methodologicalarsenal for applied systemsanalysis of

problems of this kind is exceptionallyvaried. Every list of

existing methods of analysis inevitably turns out to be incomplete.

In Figure Ｒ ｾ is presentedone of the latest lists according to

data presentedat the Second InternationalCongress ｯ ｾ Technology

Assessment(USA, October,1976}.[15] It lacks, as we can see, some

methods which have been attracting more and more attention

lately - such as the possibility of Fuzzy Logic and Rene Thorn's

idea of "catastrophetheory".

It would also be possible to indicate other methods which

deservetesting on the proving ground of SANT. Some of these

methods have already shown their usefulnessrelative to all the

elementsof SANT (= TF + TA + AT + ERD + ｓｔｾＩＮ Others, however,

have so far been tried only in particular cases.

Our general assessmentof all known methods is this:

There is not and cannot be one universally good

(and "unified") method; but there is also no

basis for saying that any methods are hopelessly

bad for all cases.

The problem is to find systematicmeans of using a selectionof

methods which mutually compensatefor each other'sweaknesses.

This is the same as the problem of creatinga reliable system

from relatively unreliable parts. We know of at least one example

of the successfulsolution of this problem (Homo Sapiens!) and

this inspires hope.

In addition to all thesedifficulties every area of SANT is

feeling the problem of noncomparability, and often even the

absence,of the necessaryinitial data. This problem is part-

icularly serious in light of the possibilitieswhich have opened

up in recent years for modeling and computerizationof methods

in this area.

-44-

Steps in an assessmentof technologicalsystems-1---2--3--4---S---6--7--a---g--l-O--l-l-'r2

tVIII.-f ｾ +I +I

III .Q 0 III Ql 1II+I ·ri ｾ Ql ＮＭｦｾ Ql

III 0 III III III ｾ ｾ ｾIII ｾ ｾ

Ql +I III ｾ III III ｾ Ql 'tj ｾ OQl

ｾ 0 p., Ql Ｆｾｑｬ +I 'ri ·riｾ Ｎ ｾ

+I1II III Ｎ ｾ ｾ ｾ III III ｾ 0 ｾＮｾ

Ql

.ｾＮｾ ｾ .... mQl III 0 +I O·ri ｾ

Ｎ ｾIII ::- g'S 0\ +I S

+I'::;> III III III ·ri o III

ｭ ｾ0\ ｾ p., +I §'E +1+1 ·ri +Iｾ .... ｾ ·ri 0 ｾ

., III +I Ｑ ｉ ｬ ｾ 111111 +I.-f

ｾ m +I III Ql 'ri ｾ ｏ ｾ 0 ｾ｡ｉ ::s 0 ·ri Ql p., III ::sIII ｾ .-I +I ｾ 'ri ｾ ｾ ·ri III III e 0

ｾ ｾ'ri 1II +I III

+1.-1 ｾ ｾ .Q III ·ri III ·ri 0 III Ql ｾ Ql O·lD ｾ QlO.Q III Ql 'ri ::s +I 'ri +I ·ri ·ri .... O'Ql Ql+l ..-4 ·ri al ｾ

Study techniques e e +I 1II .-I ｾ 0 ｾ +I 0 +I ｾ .... 0\111 o 0 t:t IIIal.-l III III Ql al Ql 0 Ql ｾ O.-f 0+1 ｾ Ql ｡ｬｾ

ｾｰＮＬ ｾ III 0 ｾ'tj 't1 i ｾ｡ｉＧｴＱ aI ., lIS &1 lD o ｾ ＮＡｾ

ｾ 0III H C1l X. () .III

Historical surveys • • • • • • • • •Input/output • • • •Compilation of prior work • • • • • • • • • •Cost-benefit • • • •Systemsanalysis • • • • • •Risk-benefit • • • •Systemsengineering • • • • •Simulation • • • • • • • •Expert panels, workshops • • • • • • • • • • •Modeling' • • • • • • • •Hearings • • • • • • • • • • •Interpretive structuralmodeling • • • • • •Field or on-site investigation • • • • • •Signed digraph • • • • • •Trend extrapolationand analysis • • •

physical models • • •Delphi • • • • • • • • • •Scenarios/games • • • • • • • • • • • •Cross impact • • • • • • •Moot courts • • • • • • • •Check lists • • • • • • •Telecommunicationparticipation • • • • • • • • •Morphological analysis • • •Syncons • • • • • • • • • •Historical analogy • • • • • • • •Survey techniques • • • • • •Decision/relevancetree • • • • • • •Ballots • • • • • •Fault tree • • • •Decision theory • • • •Scaling • • • •Brainstorming • • • • • • • • • •Graphics • • •Judgmenttheory • • •Dynamic modeling • • • • • • •KSIM • • • • • • • • •

Figure21__ ELEMENTS IN A COMPREHENSIVE TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT (J. Coates)

/

-45-

In Figure 22, the situation which has taken shape is presentedl

in the following form. There exists a significant amount of

uncoordinated"primary data" from scientific sources, including

data from national and internationalstatistics. These are only

partly oriented toward the aims of SANT, but they can be valuable

if used with sufficient care. A quite significant number of

regular statisticalsamplings and computerizeddata banks

("secondarydata") are already known. And the many organizations

which regularly conduct SANTs have accumulateda rich archive of

"transformeddata", among which expert estimatesare characteristic

for this area.

Models (M l , M2 , ... ,Mi ) - which are being worked out and

utilized for analysisof the dynamic developmentand assessment

of the systemsquality of new technologies- usually use one or

another type of initial data, or in some rare casesa combination

of types.l Especiallypromising in this area is the tendency

toward integrationof models both through commonality of apparatus

and data, and through the systematicinclusion into the models

of a broaderset of organizational,economic, engineering,and

socio-psychologicalcharacteristicsof technologicalsystemsand

ST activity.

As a conceptualbasis for the integrationof various tech-

nological-change-relatedmodels Prof. M'Phersonproposedto use

a model of technologicalbehaviour respondingto economic, social,

environmentaland technologicalpressures,including its own

self-inducedinfluence.[16]

The model was referred to as the IntegratedModel of Tech-, 2

nological Change (IMTC). See Prof. M'Pherson'sdiagram - Figure

23. In connectionwith this diagram Prof. M'Phersonwrote:

1 We are using the method of presentationacceptedin IIASA'smethodologicalproject (R. Pestel).

2 As is clear from Prof. M'Pherson'spaper [16], he mentionsnot only "technological changes" but also ST progressinthe broad meaning of this term.

-46-

Figure .22

f:, FIGURES t:J

Ｌ ｌ Ｎ Ｇ ｾ ｏ ｍ

SECOHDARY

DATA

PRE;I:..UUNARY

DATA

Ml , M2 , •.. ,Mi - Models

Dl - Dialogue with networks of experts through computer

D2 - Man-machinedialogue and simulation

ｾ ｾ ｾＮ SANT ｾ <$>I Ij ｾ I • .

ｾ '- I ｾ • :I II ｾI

SCieNCE

1 .... __ •

50"0-'.l.' 'f'CAL.., l.. · " •

I POL,c1 · $YSTE.ML.,I"""I

I ｾ,ｾＢＧｄＩＧ｣ＢＧＧＧＧｄｬｴｓ

, • ,Ｎｾ

I I ,I

liP I)\ "

\ ｾＭＭ . ｾｉ '---, R&D .. EC.ONOMICo ｾＢＮＮ "..._-"'1" •

I &VltTEMt

J, 'r , Ｎｾ,.S..,S-n;'MS I ,. ｓ ｴ Ｚ ｬ ｃ Ｌ ｉ ａ ｾ

", &1--'" I ..._--"'ceH'Noa..O&Ic.ALI4EW • ..

ｾＦｃＮｍｉｬｉｏＦＮｄＶＧ · "

..ｓｙｾｔｅｍ

• ENYlff.,ONMSHTALI

ﾣｾＨＬ｜ＮＮ｡ｅｅｒｉｎ Gr-, II4'Ac:rSI .. •I 0t

STC \

ｾ,--- ENVI ｒｃＩｎｍ｡ｎＱＧａｾ ｾＭＭ .. ｾS1$-rQM

80UNOAfty 0,: ｓ ｙ ｾ ｔ ｅ ｍ 01=

T&.C.Wa-IOL.OGI CAL CWAN Go&. .

ｆＧＶＧｕｒＦＮＲＬｾ ｓａｾｔ Af'tJ) ｾｅ SVS1l::M Of TEC."""'OLOf:r' CALCWANc..E.

I.&=-...JI

-48-

IISANT is related to a general conceptualstructure for the

overall systemof interacting and interdependentsubsys-

tems that go to make up the Socio-Technological"system.

This structureprovides the conceptualframework from which

the IMTC is being developed. The boundary of the System

of TechnologicalChange (STC) is drawn in the figure to

enclose (or semi-enclose)those subsystemsthat are

specifically relevant to the study of TechnologicalChange.

IMTC attemptsto model, or simulate, all processesinside

the STC boundary; it also operationalizesmuch of the

evaluatoryprocedureinside SANT. Tanken together SANT +

IMTC should provide a powerful aid to decision-makingin.

the SciencePolicy field."

A number of models and methodswere assessedby Prof. M'Pherson

and some independentapproachesto their formation was developed.

This line of investigation is very important as well as difficult.

Here, there is room for scientific efforts to be international in

scope.

For the presentstage in the developmentof applied systems

analysis, it is vital to recognize that this kind of scientific

activity, by its very principles, must be organizedas a regularly

performedprocedure- as an I T ERA T I V E PRO C E S S

which permits us to react to the naturally dynamic characterof

the factors which are taken into account, and which makes possible

the elimination of weaknessesin existing methods by means of

successiveapproximations. In Figure 22, two basic classesof

systems-engineering(computer-based)instrumentsare shown which

permit practical realization of the above-namedprocedures.

01 represents"dialogue systems" of the "computer conferencingU

type, in which the computer is used as a means of organizing a

dialogue among territorially distributedexperts and groups of

systemsanalysts.

02 denotesdialogue systemsin which the computer itself (with

its data banks, programs, computationalpower, memory of current

decisions, and well-developedmeans for input and output of results)

performs as an active participant in the dialogue. The "man-

-49-

machine" dialogue is supplemented,in case of work via networks,

by dialoguesof the "machine-system"type. Special forms of work

are also known in which collectives of expertsparticipate in the

formation of SANT through a dialogue involving "man-machine-

community of specialists".1 Obviously, to provide continuity and

communicationsbetweensystemsof type 0l and D2 would. have good

prospects.

By now, a significant. amount of experiencehas been accumu-

lated regarding the presentation,in model form, of the inter-

dependenc,iesinvolved in the problem-areaof ST policy. In all

honesty, however, we must note that:

- in most cases, theseefforts have been exploratory in

characterand have not gone beyond mathematical

experimentation;

- the majority of the proposedmodels have operated

with one certain class of methods for managerial

influence upon the system under investigation (well-

known examples include economic, informational, and

organizationalmodels); and

- the models have usually been stratified according to

levels of management(technologicalchange, techno-

logical advance, and technologicalprogress),and the

task of integrating these levels is only beginning to

receive strict formulation.

The author of this report has, for the past ten years

led a team of specialistson the applied systems

analysis of ST managementproblems.2 This area is known

in the USSR as naukovedenie,or sciencepolicy studies.

1 Our experiencein modelling and main ideas of the INPROGSsystem, will be characterizedbelow.

2 The Sector for Complex Problems of Naukovendie, of theCyberneticsInstitute of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences(Kiev). In this branch there are three structural scientificdivisions, totaling about one hundred staff members: (1) adepartmentwhich specializesin technological forecastingand systemsassessmentsof technologicalprospects; (2) adepartmentwhich specializesin problems of forecastingneeds for ST potential and for managementof itsformation; and (3) a departmentwhich specializesin problemsof managing R&D, including the creation of special manage-ment information systems for this purpose.

-50-

6. THE CASE STUDY OF A MACROMODEL FOR ST POLICY

In the formation of long-rangeand five-year plans for ST

development,and also in the processof current managementof

the implementationof these plans, problems are constantlyarising

in regard to the balancing (coordination) of ST policy decisions

with the aggregatedindicators of social and economic progress-

in the name of which ST activity is carried out. In connection

with this, a task was posed for working out a model which re-

flects the interconnectionof such variables as the following:

- National income, m, in percent relative to a base year,

or M, in absolute figures (milliards of rubles). Here

X indicates the statistically evaluatedrate of annual

growth of M.

- An economic estimate, L, of the growth in ST potential

(that is, the annual appropriationsfor ST activity) in

percent relative to a baseyear, or L, in absolute

figures (milliards of rubles). Here Y representsthe

statistically estimatedrate of annual growth of L.

- An indicator of the intensity of the processof trans-

forming II input signalsII in the system (i. e. the growth

ｾ ｦ ST potential) into final socio-economiceffects. As

such an indicator, " T " was chosen - the delay (in years)

between the appropriationsand the outputs into national

income.

- The time horizon of projecteddecisions- the time

variable t (in years).[17 ]

In the developmentof the model, severalbasic ideas were

used from econometricsand from the methodologyof systems-

managementmodels with delay parameters. Also, a qualitative

and quantitativeanalysiswas made of existing statisticson

ST advance. The mathematicaldescriptionof the model was

obtainedon the basis of hypothesisthat the most important

measureof the effectivenessof the systemsunder examination

is, in the final analysis, reduction in the necessarytime of

economic reproduction. The model turned out to be similar to

a single-sectorHarrod-Damarmodel with delayed return on

investmentwithout discounting.[181

-51-

M(t +1 ) - M(t ) ;; ｾｾ = 11 (t , 8) L (t - 8) ;

where 11(t,8) is a proportionality factor, a so-called "norm"

for return on investment, and 8 is the interval of real time

neededfor this return to be obtained.

8 = 81

+ 82 + 83 , where 81 is the delay in return on

investmentcausedby the mean duration of R&D; 82 is the

same, causedby the ｴ ｩ ｭ ｾ required in tte ｧ ｾ ｶ ･ ｮ national mecha-

nism for technology transfer; and 83

is the same, causedby

the level of intensity, characteristicfor the given country,

of the productive utilization of technological innovations.

The basic organization-managementpossibilities for

acceleratingnational income reproductionthrough factors of

technologicalprogresswere investigatedand statistically

evaluated. In particular, sets of absolutequantities T (that

is, the time required for realizationof the applied potential

of technologicalresults) were obtained for various countries

and various periods of development.

Using statisticsfor the USSR in the years 1961-1970, an

estimateof T $ 9 years was obtained. This coincideswell

with data obtained by other authors using different methods.

Also well-known is the seriesof pUblications on the statistical

analysis and evaluationof technologicalprogressbegun by the

pioneeringwork of E. Mansfield!19]In thesepublications,

similar estimatesof "lag" are repeatedlyencountered,based

on historical and statisticaldata relative to the experience

of various technically developedcountries. Typical estimates

of T range from 6 to 14 years.

The model developedhere has been implementedin the form

of computer programs. For conveniencein preliminary approxi-

mate calculation, we can also use special nomogramswhich

graphically illustrate the characterof the internal dependen-

cies among variables. In Figures 24 and 25 are presented

-52-

BUDGET FOR R&DJ IN 109 RUBLES PER YEAR

1960 1965

Clz (J)

<t t--J

t- ::;)::;) (J)

c.. LIJZ 0:::- LIJ

Q :I:t-

oc!I'!)

c::: z-z (J)

LIJ ::;)LIJｾ ｾt- oLLJ 0:::a:a Ll-

e.!) t-e( ::;)-J c..

t-LLJ =»ｾ 0-t-

National 'Inc1n % 1960

/915 1980 1985 ·/990years

TIME HORIZON OF DECISIONS

THE MACRO MODEL FOR SCIENCEAND TECHNOLOGY POLICY IN USSR

Figure 24

BUDGET FOR R&D IN 109 RUBLES PER YEARf.37 2.72 3.99 5.5 7.25 ＹＮｾ •

....... ｾ II V· / A' V ' f7ｾ Ｚ Ｚ Ｚ ｴ ｩ Ｍ ｬ 1 / V Yil ｾ ｾｲｳｾＭｲＭＺＺＮＮｾ / V I

: 1'bZ:t- ｃ Ｚ Ｚ Ｍ ｲ Ｎ Ｎ Ｌ Ｗ Ｍ ｲ Ｍ ｃ Ｒ Ｇ ｾ ｬ Ｎ Ｎ Ｎ Ｎ Ｎ Ｎ ｬ Ｎ Ｎ Ｎ ｾ Ｑ -i-.,.LV:..+---I--1----l--l----IIi II / ｾｾｲＭｌｾｾ ｲＭＭｾ I __

I / ＭＭｾｩ｟｟｟Ｎｾ r- r-- 11--" 1/ V / / ＭＮＮＮＮＮＮＮｾ 1-:- r-r- . .....R::

/i. 1/ / 1/ /v ｾ ｔ Ｂ ｾ -""'r----. ｾｩＧＭｬＮ

II ill 1 / ｾ｟ｾ｟ｶ i ...... j'--.. ......j"--.... i-r--...,I Ii Y I /1 X' I Y 1 j'--.... j'--... .......

'I 1/ !/ /./ ｾ Ｏ I I t--.. "'-, JI/I/[/ ....v I f'.

IV//yV ": ｕＮＭｉＭｾＭｉＭＭＭｩｉｉｾ Na:tioDAl J'qcablle.ｾ fOD 2no ;jon i..in r 1-;0 ｾｾｩｲｩ .. ｾＮＮ . .

I

1910,. /;?5r. t&!JOr. f985r. ff}gOr. 19951; 2/)00,

II\

516

17,8

9

fa

enI-....J

I- ::J::J en0- UJZ 0::- UJｾ :I:

I-0c!S

<.!>c::: Z....z enUJ ::JUJｾ :::E:l- e IUJ 0:: V1I:n u.. W

I<.!> I-et ::J...J 0-

I-UJ ::J:::E: e....1-0c!S

TIME HORIZON OF DECISIONS

HIE MACRO MODEL FOR SCIENCE AND

TECHNOLOGY POLICY .I.N THE·UKRAINIAN SSR

Figure 25

-54-

nomogramsof this type, which were preparedfor use in pro-

gnostic calculationsand the balancingof variants of planning

decisions in the USSR and the Ukrainian SSR.l

Four classesof urgent practical problems have been dis-

cussedwith the help of thesemodels.

1. To substantiatean hypothesisabout the neededlevel

of funding for, ST activity, when there is an intention

to set a definite task for raising the level of

national income (t, ｾ Ｌ L are given, and L is to be

estimated).

2. To substantiatea prognostic suppositionabout the

statistically expectedincreasein the level of

national income, given imposed limitations on the

budget for ST work and the already establishedlevel

of intensity of the cycle of obtaining and implementing

technologicalresults (L, t, and L are given, and m

is to be estimated).

1. To preparedata for drafting variants of plans about

the possible time-spansneededto achieve certain

socio-economicgoals, given the statistically expected

contribution to solution of this problem which will be

made by technologicalprogresswith its characteristic

level of intensity in the engenderingand transmission

of new technology (m, L, and L are given and t is to

be determined).

4. To investigatehow strenuouslytasks for perfecting

the organizationaland economic mechanismfor techno-

logy transfer and for accelerationof the whole cycle

of ST work must be posed, if suppositionabout final

economic goals and limitations on budgetarystructure

are already known (m, t, and L are given, and L must

be determined).

In this report we need not presentfurther details of the

model. In conclusion, however, it is appropriateto give some

attention to one peculiarity of this model, namely its

1 This kind of model also exists for the conditions of BulgariaAll thesemodels have been used in the practice of forming andanalyzing prognostic hypothesis.

-55-

orientation toward the generationof systematicallysubstantiated

answersto questionsof the "what if" type. We are convinced

that this approach is extremely valuable in any model which is

used for policy planning.

This feature of the model is used in order to formulate

clearly and assesscritically the systemsassumptions(the "if"

conditions) correspondingto various alternative forecasts

obtainedby different methods. It often turns out that these

assessmentshave not been taken into account.

Thus, for instance, the investigatormay find an attractive

hypothesisM (t.) developedwith a certain projected level of1

L (t.). The analysis can show that these two estimatesfor1

the time t i are probable and mutually compatible only if there

is an unprecedentedlyhigh level of intensitv in the cycle of STwork and technology transfer (e.g., T S 4 years). Balancing

of the system of hypotheses,reducing them to the level of the

critical estimate (on the order of T ｾ 6-7 years), makes the

whole problem if not simple at least realistic.

Such an analysis, performed on the data of various countries,

has also made it possible to identify "statistically significant"

methods for intensifying the cycle of technologicalwork and

technology transfer - that is, methodswhich have a substantial

influence on the final macro-indicators. Among them we can

single out (for national ST policy) the rational structuring og

the set of "candidatetechnologies"lby scale9f utilization,

rate and sequenceof transfer, etc. We are talking here about

the need for more profound substantiationof the "national

assortment"of technological systemscurrently being developed.

For the internationalscale of ST policy, it is important

to indicate that internationalexchangeof new technology (in

its various known forms) allows all countries to improve the.

structureof ST efforts. A significant part of their invest-

ments for ST can be diverted into projects having a naturally

short cycle of realization. Thus they can intensify the process

I "Candidate technologies"are R&D findings, the possibilityof realizationof which (from the physical, chemical, engineer-ing, and other viewpoints) is not doubted by the majority ofthe specialists.

-56-

of technology transferwithin the country and raise the effective-

ness of technologicalprogress. Both sets of measuresmust be

examined, within the ST policy design, as mutually complementary

and connectedelements.

-57-

7. THE CASE STUDY OF A MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT

OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES

An Example of a Model for Managementof TechnologicalChange.

The set of variables included in models on this level differs

significantly from the casedescribedabove. First of all,

systemsanalystshere are faced with the task of reflecting in

the model the problem's cause-and-effectconnectionsand a certain

part of its engineeringlogic. At the same time, the model must

also contain other data necessaryfor decision making relative to

organizationalmanagement. One such model of technological change

was worked out and implementedfor the subject area which includes

the science, technology and exploitation of computers)20,21,"22]

We set ourselvesthe task of reflecting in the model the

ideas of specialists,quantitative assessmentsof events and

possibilities, and also the qualitative peculiaritiesof the

logic of the developmentof the chosenST area. Assessedin

the framework of SANT, "technologicalchanges" in the model are

related to four levels of scientific and engineeringactivity:

a) to the sphereof exploratory research,the forming of

the "portfolio" of new ideas for further development;

b) to the sphereof applied researchand development

directed toward discovery of methods for practical

use in technology of the already projectedpossibi-

lities and establishedprinciples;

c) to the spherewhich seeks economically and techno-

logically effective methods for realization of the

results of work at levels "a" and "b" in conditions

of real production;

d) to the sphereof technology transfer and the

utilization of "technological changes" in regular

practice.

-58-

The essenceof the methodology consistsof informational

and mathematicalproceduresfor constructionand analysis of

a basic graph which reflects the generalizedperceptionof a

large group of specialistsabout needs, possibilities, and

resourcesfor technologicalchanges in a definite area of ｒ ｾ ｄ

(see Figure 19).

The organizersof this SANT use a goal-orientedand multi-

stageexpert inquirylin striving to clarify and formulate the

set of expectedand neededevents. These events reflect the

conditions for achievementof each level of progress in the

area. Each such event is accompaniedby a systemof quantita-

tive estimates (t. - the expectedtime of occuranceof event. Jj; P .. (t) - the relative probability of the transition of events

1Jfrom condition i to condition j in time t; c .. - an estimateof

1Jthe cost of realizing the indicated elementarystep of techno-

logical progress; Z .. - the relative importanceof the i-th1J

event as one of the conditions for occurenceof event j). The

structureof the graph reflects a logical network of cause-

effect relations among the set of events included in the graph.

The sequencefollowed in constructingthe graph amounts to

"extending" some problem (the final goal of the ｰ ｲ ｯ ｧ ｲ ｾ ｭ Ｉ from

the future down into the present, creating a structureof inter-

mediate events and fixing cause-effectrelations among them.

"Technological changes" per se are modeled by means of a

combination of several formal transformationsof the graph

(see Figure 26):

I - introduction (or removal) of eventswhich reflect

possibilities for achievementof previously

establishedgoals;

II - introduction of new formulations of conditions

or descriptionof new sub-goals;

1 In working with experts, we take accountof positive exper-ience in the developmentand application of the Delphi method(see last presentationin [23]). At the same time we havetried to avoid a number of traditional weaknessesof thismethod. The procedurewhich we have constructedfor permanentlyconductedexpert estimationsis an example of the "non-conventionalDelphi" - see [24].

-59-

Figure 26

MODEL OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

-60-

III - reconstructionof the network of connections

among the events (establishmentof new ones or

liquidation of existing ones);

IV - changesin the set of quantitativecharacteristics

of the events in the graph.l

The methodology basedon these ideas has received the

name "ProgrammaticMethodology for TechnologicalForecasting."

In 1971 it was approvedby the collegium of the State Committee

on Scienceand Technology of the USSR as the basic methodological

instrument for SANT. Since 1975, the CMEA countries have had

a Joint Methodology for Multinational Work in Technological

Forecastingcreatedon the basis of the "ProgrammaticMethodo-

logy" but utilizing the CMEA countries' experiencewith fore-

casting.

With the use of thesemethodologies,and in various techno-

logical areas, assessmentsare now being obtainedwhich are

practically related to all the elementsofSANT: prognostic

technologicaldata; estimatesof the possible influence of

technical achievements;comparisonof variants of technological

policy; comparisonand evaluationof R&D projects at the stage

of their inclusion in plans and programs; and advanceestima-

tion of the ST potential which could be drawn in for performance

of expedientefforts.

The practice of working with the model can be characterized

in the following way.2 A representativesample of experts,

often numbering in the hundreds (with variable membershipin

each round of the inquiry), puts forward technologicalcondi-

tions for the achievementof a certain level of goals and sUbgoals.

1 An important element in the information included in this systemof knowledge is data ｡ ｢ ｯ ｾ ｴ specialistsand organizationswhichare ready to perform different tasks or are relevant to such atype of planning activity.

2 This presentationis basedon the monograph [22] cited earlier.

-61-

The procedureof expert estimationcontinuesuntil it reaches

such conditions as the use of already extant R&D results, the

implementationof an already patentedsolution, the introduction

of an innovation which can be bought on license, etc. This

operation is known as "grounding" the graph.

The networks of hypotheseswhich are constructedin this

way include thousandsof events and serve to systematizea great

deal of information about technological ideas and possibilities.

Such a formalized presentationof the generalizedopinion of

specialistspossessesa number of interestingand non-trivial

properties.

First of all, the graph contains important information which

no one specialistby himself possesses- not even the most highly

qualified and erudite. This information is subject to structural

analysis and calculationsthrough the application of quantitative

methods.

A program has been developedand implementedon computer

which allows us to determine the optimal path for achievementof

the final goal (optimal in terms of time, cost, etc.), and also

the importanceof various events and chains of events (variants)

for solution of the initial problem. In addition, we can

quantitatively evaluatesuch properties for technologicalpolicy

alternatives. The computer also performs some rather cumbersome

operationsfor putting the information in the graph into good

order, such as liquidating "dead ends" and loops, and other

operationsnecessaryfor the subsequentanalysis and calculations.

Computationsare carried out

qt (j) = Ek

according to the

qt ( i) P.. (t) ,o 1)

formula:

where qtk(j) is the absoluteprobability that at time t k the

systemwill be in condition j; qto(i) is the absoluteprobability

that at time t the systemwill be in condition i; and P.. (t) iso 1)

the relative probability that the systembeing forecastedwill,

by time t, move from condition i to condition j (i,j = O,l, ..• ,N;

K=O,l, ... ,n).

-62-

Conditional estimatesof the probability of achievementof

the subgoal S, by the time t are calculatedas proposedby1

v. Glushkov:

E= L1 "P, (t) = -R l: R'E·P'E(t-t'E).P'E1(t-t: E) .P'E2(t-t'E)··.P'EN(t-t, );

1 i E=1 1 1 1 l' 1 1· 1 1 le,

where PiE is the probability of achievementof subgoal i estimated

by expert number Ei Z is the total number of experts in the grouPi

PiE1 ' PiE2 .... PiEN are the probabilities of accomplishmentof

a chain of intermediateevents (1,2.••N) suggestedby expert E

as conditions for achievementof the subgoal i; RiE is a weight

coefficient for weighting an estimationmade by the expert E about

subgoal i; and R. is the general weight coefficient of the expert1

group.

There are also other computational formulas and algorithms

for different specific compositionsof data and different functions

of SANT. They make it possible to perform a qualitative analysis

of the chains of interconnectedevents from a common viewpoint

and to carry out quantitativecomputationsof their characteristics

with compatible estimates. This analysis embracesdata about

goals and subgoals,paths to their achievement,the resources

required for this, and the ･ ｘ ｩ ｾ ｩ ｮ ｧ ST potential. One of the most

important propertiesof the model examined here is the possibility

of working with the graph with the help of a new type of dialogue -

a dialogue between "man, information system, and the community

of specialists".

As a natural reflection of the logic of the ｰ ｲ ｯ ｣ ･ ｾ ｳ of

technology creation, each event is connectednot only with that

nearestto it, but through that to the subsequentevents. Thus

the attainmentof the final goal dependsin various ways on the

individual fates of the separateevents. The graph allows the

analyststo play out the situation and thus test a seriesof

hypothesesof the type: what kind of consequencescould be expected

in the program from occurrenceof event j in the period ± ｾ ti or

how does the absoluteprobability of achieving goal S change if

the relative probability of transition from event i to event j

turns out to equal zero (failure).

-63-

Owing to the specific characterof technologicalchangeas an

object of SANT, .at any given moment there are a certain number

of events in the graph for the realization of which none of the

experts could suggestconditions. In the real course of performing

ST work, possibilities for further developmentof the graph

become clearer (both under the influence of world experienceand

on the basis of one's own R&D). These possibilities reveal the

ways of completing ("grounding") those brancheswhich could not

previously be grounded. At the same time, ideas about structural

connectionsand previously suggestedquantitativeestimatesfor

other events are made more exact.

Under the influence of information newly enteredinto the

system, periodic revision is performed on the previously made

estimates,forecast variants, and decisions. The results of

such an analysis can give the system "reason" for re-examining

one or anotherpart of the plan of practical actions and for

discussingthe newly formed situation on an informal level.

In every case, a valuable managerialpossibility is the fact

the agency responsiblefor decision making can know the "cost

of error" or the "cost of nonoptimality" in decisions taken

under ｴ ｨ ｾ pressureof external circumstances.

Use of the model's indicated capability for "self-improvement"

and "self-instruction" opens up especially favourable prospects

for formation of a new methodology for the planning and management

of ST changes. Its basic featuresare as follows:

- providing a single set of decisions, embracing research

work on various levels, developmentwork, and the

technical improvement of production;

- making key managementdecisionsunder conditions of

fuller knowledge and with the use of calculatedanalytic

bases;

- carrying out planning as a permanentprocedure, i.e. at

any moment of the 15 year plan it will be possible to up-

date current decisions in light of the long-range

perspective;

-64-

- obtaining a single methodologicalsUbstantiationfor

the choice ｾ ｦ goals, for assessmentof dynamics of

technologicalchange, for long-rangeprogram design, and

for the distribution of resources;

- making it possible for a broad circle of specialists

(people having concrete ideas and suggestions)to

introduce their information into the bank of data used

in SANT. The input of such data can change the previous

estimatesand can influence both the SANT and the

decisionsbeing made. We should emphasizethat the most

important influence which such new ideas exert in the

model is not through statisticallyaveraged.numbers

but through change in the set of events and the

structureof their interconnections. Attention to

individual judgementshas a stimulating influence on

the activenessof this processof "competition of

ideas".

-65-

8. THE CASE STUDY OF THE SYSTEM-ENGINEERING OPTION

Democratic, flexible, and dynamic planning has naturally

required the creation of a permanentlyoperating system for SANT

and it integrationwith automatedmanagementinformation systems.

One possibleoption for this kind of system is presentedin

Figure 27. The output of this INPROGS system is a flow of data

containing the results of assessments,analysis, diagnosis,and

forecastingof tendenciesin the areaof technologicalchanges

(surveys, comparativeassessments,prognostichypotheses,etc.).

This data receives its final form from a team of highly qualified

specialistswho interactwith INPROGSl through a dialogue routine

(D-II) and can use both formalized and nonformalizeddata for

SANT. (See "BD" - Bank of Data.)

The technical element (computer) included in the systemcan

be completely specializedfor the given system, or in other cases

a universal computer is used in a time-sharingmode.

The software of the system includes a variety of standardand

specially preparedprograms (see "LP" - Library of Programs).

These programs perform informational and computationalprocedures

of information retrieval, statistical calculation, etc. As the

system continues to develop, its software will include programs

for choosing technologicalpolicy alternatives,programs for

optimizing managementdecisions,etc.

We should note that the BD contains not only engineering

information per se, but also the necessarydata about experts,

information about previously made science-policydecisions,

conceptionsof goals, various ST programs, cataloguesof statis-

tical and normative data, and so forth.

The input of fresh information into the systemtakes place

along three channels. The central place in the information

entering the system is occupiedby data about ideas and assessments

made by a pool of experts, with whom the systemanalystsare

working in a dialogue mode (0-1) • They constantlyanalyze the growth in

1 "INPROGS" - INformational-PROGnostic-System.Its descriptionis in [25].

OOESTIONS. I. •

DIll

uS

DII / , I EＮｾ

I

R 0'10'1I

ED I LP _ cavPUTER ' c) J - I S

"I NPROGS"

Figure 27 INFORMATION ａｾｭ PROGNOSTIC SYSTEM

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the experts' competency,activity, and accuracyof intuition in

order to up-date weight-coefficientswhich ane applied to the

assessmentswhich the expertshave put forward.

The secondchannel is the flow of patent-analysisdata based

on newly appearingdocumentsof the world patent fund in classes

relating to the object of the SANT. The results of the patent

analysis are used by INPROGS in several forms: (l) as direct sub-

stantiation for changesin the graph, adding to the set 0f events,

"grounding" the chartedbranches,or making more exact the

previously made quantitativeestimates; (2) as the basis for

hypotheseswhich, after dialogue with the experts, are entered

for further use in the BD; and (3) news for the expertsabout

new technologicalsolutions and possibilities.

The third channel is the flow of results from technological

information analysis basedon data surveys, estimatesof levels,

prognosticdocuments,experienceand ideas about ST development

extracted from the literature or contributeddirectly by the

specialists. These data are utilized in the same ways as the

results of the patent analysis.

In the course of the last few years, all indicated blocks of

the systemhave undergoneexperimentaltesting. This experience,

and also specially performed theoreticalgeneralizations,allow

us to assertthat iterative SANT routines have several fundamental

advantages: (i) they raise the usefulnesswhich estimateshave

for management; (ii) the systemintegrateswith the technological

and patent information services; and (iii) it can be successfully

integratedwith the existing and newly forming servicesfor

scientific analytical support for the organs of management(D-III-}.

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9. IIASA'S MISSION AND POSSIBILITIES

Here it is appropriateto recall that, in creating the

International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis, the

National Member Organizationsdid so: ...

"Convinced that scienceand technology, i.f..wisely directed, can benefit all mankind;andBelieving that internationalcooperationbetweennational institutions promotescooperationbetweennations and so theeconomic and social progressof peoples.•. ,,[26]

It is my profound conviction that the time has now come to

make the problem of "wisely directing" technologicaldevelop-

ment the subject of special applied systemsanalysis.

The very concept of IIASA included the idea of placing-··

modern systems-analyticmethodsat the service of applied

decision-makingfor managementof complex systemson a global

scale and/or of a universal character.

In their purpose, SANTs can be either "alarm-oriented"

or "managerial-oriented".The first type of SANT is called upon

to give objective information about possible negative consequences

of the use of technical solutions. We do not agreewith the opin

opinion that "noise is made basically by those men and women who

are unable to pay their bills on time or who do not know how to

solve a quadratic equation".[27] World scientific community

through an internationaland independentresearchorganization,

can promote objective and timely assessmentof various techno-

logical options.

In spite of all this, our basic traditional orientation

remains ,the application of systemsanalysis to the practiceof

managerialdecision-making. In the experienceof countries

which regularly carry out analytically baseddecisions for the

guidanceof ST development,various kinds of decisionsare known

which use data from SANT (usually in combinationwith data about

national and internationalneeds, preference｣ ｲ ｩ ｴ ･ ｾ ｩ ｡ Ｌ goals for

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systemdevelopmentetc.). Such decisions include: plans and

programs for R&D; the choice of forms, methods and direqtions

for international ST cooperation;distribution of resources;

assessmentof conditions and the level of ST developmentin

various areas; etc.

We should emphasizehere that SANT, like applied systems

analysis as a whole, is not the same as either decision-making

or management. SANT is only an important instrumentfor design-

ing new, and analyzing existing, ST policy on all three levels

of managementdefined earlier.

In this systems' instrumentation,the "WELMM approach"

provides important professional (engineering,biological,

ecological, etc.) data which the "STM approach" combineswith

more general economic, organizational, legal, socio-psychological

and other systemsof SANT data (TF + TA + AT + ERD + ｓｔｾＩＮ In

this way IIASA's M & T area can include its specialmethods in

efforts joined with other areasand programmesto provide an ST

policy design which is inter-disciplinaryand intersectoralin

character.

Becauseof the internationalqualities inherent in scienti-

fic knowledge and technology, we should especiallyemphasize

the importanceof the internationalaspectsof ST policy and

cooperation.

This systemspractice is one of society'snewest forms

of activity. Its importance is rapidly growing for all countries

without exception,.and in some aspectsfor the fate of the world

as a whole. The systemof generally acceptedconcepts,comparable

indicators, ｾ ｣ ｩ ･ ｮ ｴ ｩ ｦ ｩ ｣ ｡ ｬ ｬ ｹ sUbstantiatedmodels and decision-

making procedureshere either is basedon experienceborrowed

from international trade and diplomacy, or else is completely

absent. This circumstanceis standingout ever more clearly

as an obstacle (not the only one, of course) on the path toward

realizationof one of mankind's greatesthopes ｾ national deve-

lopment through !nutuallyadvantageousinternationalscierttific

and technologicalcooperation. Hopes for the use of the possi-

-70-

I

Ibilities which exist here are reflected in the ｈ ･ ｬ ｳ ｩ ｮ ｾ ｩ ｾ ･ ｾ ｩ ｡ ﾭ

iration, and in the conceptionsof numerous specialized ｩ ｾ ｴ ･ ｲ Ｍ

national organizations,and in the statementsof practic.llyI

all countries in the modern world. - It is atso--the-maIn---4oalof

the next UN world ｣ ｯ ｮ ｦ ･ ｲ ･ ｾ ｣ ･ on scienceand technology for deve-

lopment (August 1979).

IIASA, as an international, independent,non-profit

scientific organization, has exceptionally ｦ ｡ ｶ ｯ ｲ ｡ ｾ ｬ ･ possibilities

for providing the world a methodological, consulting, and research

service in this area. The need for this is even pressing, and

IIASA itself is its offspring.

Perhaps ｩ ｴ ｾ ｩ ｬ ｬ be interestingto recall that both the

former and the presentleadersof IIASA have understoodits

possible role in a similar way. Thus Dr. R. Levien has proposed

that, "every nation should have at least one independent

institution engagedin anticipationof the social consequences

of scientific evolution and technical progress." He wrote

nine years ago, "I hope the time is not distant when we shall

see such institutions serving every nation--andthe community

of nations.1I [20]

ProfessorHoward Raiffa, in one of his latest articles

devoted to the conceptof the Institute, has suggestedthat the

goal of the Institute is to improve the methods of systems

analysis in order to make them more effective for lIforecasting,

assessment,and managementof social and other consequences

of scientific and technologicaldevelopment."[29]

ProfessorJ. Gvishiani wrote in the last issue of

EastwestMarkets: "The institute could also be a place for

assessingthe stateof the art in various industries•••• It

can be a meeting place where people can exchangeideas on an

informal basis and at the same time be exposedto a new

'technologicalculture, • 1I [30]

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In all areasand programmeswithin their specialization,

IIASA has already startedalong this path. The discussionnow

is about systematicadditions to the professionalaspectsof the

scientific analysis which the Institute is carrying out in various

fields, and about the special approachesto the design,and analysis

0f technologicaldevelopment'smanagerialproblems.

Our notion of the possibleproducts of this integrated

activity at IIASA and the various "consumers" of this scientific

production is given in the following table.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

"PRODUCTS"(Results of IIASA Activity)

Proposals,recommendations,and projects for improvingthe activity of interpationalorganizationsfor ST coopera-tion

Key concepts,measures,meth-ods and models for analyticbasing of one's own (and eval-uation ot one's partners)decisionsregarding ST oooper-ation and technology transfer

Organizationof internationalproblem-orientedscientificteams for applied systemsanalysisof concretenationalproblems and preparationofdrafts for ST policies

Generalizationof existinganalysesand systemsassess-ments of new technology (SANT)and independentpreparationofSANTs reflecting the viewpointof the international scient-ific community

Scientific methods, models,and theoretical foundationsfor applied systemsanalysisof problems of managing STchange, advanceand progress

Strengtheningof the scienti-fic potential of nationalorganizationsby raising thequalifications of theirpersonnelwho are involved inI!ASA research

"USERS"

Internationalagencieswhichhave the task of promoting STexchangeand cooperation.Internationalprogram groups

National agencies,institutionsand industrial organizationson the international level

Competentnational organs andindustrial organizationsacting directly or throughinternationalagencieswhichprovide financial support fornational problem-solving

Internationaland nationalagenciesand scientificresearchorganizationswhichare analyzing and designingST policy

The world community ofscholarb.conducting investiga-tions in correspondingproblemareas

Researchinstitutions inIIASA's National MemberOrganizations

-72-

It is completely obvious that realizationof the

conceptionpresentedhere is not a simple matter. We face many

new and complex scientific problems and practical difficulties.

But if IIASA does not undertakethis task, who will?

In this area of activity, the Institute has a unique mission

not duplicatedby any other organizationin the world.

There are several important organizationaland managerial

conditions here which must be borne in mind:

the problem demandsa high degreeof integration of

efforts among all the existing subdivisionsof the

."IIASA matrix";

the problem demands the organizationof active

cooperationbetween the IIASA staff core and the

world conununity of scholars (see Figure 28);

the problem demandsstrategicorientation toward

IIASA's long-rangeplan of actions.

* * *

We ask colleaguesto ..accept this report as an.element of

IIASA's own policy design.

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W 0 R L D SCI E N T I F I C COM M U NIT Y

ORGANIZATIONS

III

COOPERATIVE RESEARCH

IV

W 0 R L D SCI E N T I F I C COM M U NIT Y

Figure 28 ORGANIZATION CHART

74

REFERENCES

[1] E.S. Quade, Analysis for Public Decisions, New York, 1975,American Elsevier Publishing Co. Inc.

[2] V. Peterka,Macrodynamicsof TechnologicalChange, MarketPenetrationby New Technologies (Theory withApplications), Internal IIASA paper, April 1977.

[3] Webster, New Collegiate Dictionary, Springfield, Mass.,1974, G & C Merriam Co.

[4] H. Linstone, D. Sahal, TechnologicalSubstitution, Fore-casting Techniquesand Applications, Elsevier, 1976.

[5] o. Helmer, Problems in Futures Research. Delphi and CausalCross-ImpactAnalysis, Futures, February 1977, pp.17-3l.

[6] H. Goeller and A. Weinberg, "The Age of Substitutability"Science, 191 (February 20, 1976), pp.683-689.

[7] G. Dobrov, V. Klimenjuk, L. Smirnov, SciencePotential,Kiev, Naukova Dumka, 1969 (Russian).

[8] V. Klimenjuk, Managementof SciencePotential Developmentand utilization, Kiev, Naukova Dumka, 1974 (Russian).

[9] Ju. Kanygin, Science-TechnologicalPotential, Novosibirsk,1975 (Russian).

[10] UNESCO, Manual of Inventory of Scientific Potential, Paris,1971.

[11] OECD, FrascattiManual, Paris, 1976.

[12] R.C. Barquin, T. Nishimura, K.A. Whitney, Models for Progressin Developing Nations, Datamation International, Sept.1976, Vol.5, n.3, pp.130A-190H.

[13] J.P. Martino, The Effect of Errors in Estimating the UpperLimit of a Growth Curve, TechnologicalForecastingandSocial Change, Vo1.4, pp.77-84, (1972).

[14] G.M. Dobrov, "SciencePolicy and Assessmentin the USSR",InternationalSocial ScienceJournal (UNESCO), Vol.25,No.3, (1973), pp.305-325.

[15] JosephF. Coates, "Technology Assessment- A Tool Kit",Chemtech (June 1976), pp.372-883.

[16] P.K. M'Pherson, The Behaviour and Assessmentof Technology-as-a-whole, Internal IIASA paper, March 1977.

[17] B.la. Brusilovskii, MathematicalModels for PrognosticandOrganizationof Science, edited by G.M. Dobrov andV.V. Ivanov, Kiev, Naukova Dumka, 1975, (Russian).

75

[18] J. Tinbergen and H.C. Bos, MathematicalModels of EconomicalGrowth, (N.Y.-London: McGraw-Hill Co., 1962).

[19] E. Mansfield, "Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation",Econometrica,Vol.29 (Oct. 1961), pp.741-765.

[20] V.M. Glushkov, Forecastingwith the Help of Experts Estima-tions, Kibernetika (1969, No.2, Kiev, Naukov Dumka,(Russian).

[21] G.M. Dobrov, Scienceand Technology Forecasting,Moscow,Nauka, 1969, 1977,(First edition translatedin USA in1972) .

[22] G.M. Dobrov, Ju.V. Ershov, E.I. Levin, L.P. Smirnov,Experts Estimations for Scienceand Technology Fore-casting, Kiev, 1974, (Russian).

[23] H. Linstone, M. Turoff (Eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniquesand Applications, Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley, 1975.

[24] H. Sackman, Delphi Critique: Expert Opinion, ForecastingandGroup Process,Lexington, 1975.

[25] G.M. Dobrov, SystemsEngineeringSupport for the Managementof R&D, Kiev, IK AN USSR, 1975 (Russian).

[26] Charter of the International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis (Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, 1972), Preamble,p.3., Emphasisadded.

[27] C. Welsh, "Technology PromisesDangers", Dialogue-USA,(Washington, 1976, No.2, p.122.

[28] R. Levien, "Projection of Scientific Evolution andTechnologicalProgress--ItsRole in Society", RAND,1968.

[29] H. Raiffa, "A Multinational Institute Explores GlobalProblems", The Futurist, 1975, Vo1.9, No.3, p.147.

[30] J. Gvishiani, "Link to Industry", EastwestMarkets (ChaseWorld Information), January10, 1977.