syrian civil war: impact on global peace and stability

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Syrian Civil War: Impact on Global Peace and

Stability

Sajid KarimResearch Officer, BIISS

& Md. Nazmul Islam

Research Officer, BIISS

In House Seminar 06 June 2016

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Research Questions

What is the geo-political significance of Syria?

What are the main causes of Syrian civil war?

Who are the key actors of Syrian civil war?

What are their interests and what role are they playing?

What are the implications of this war and how is this

war affecting the global peace and stability?

What is the impact of Syrian civil war on Bangladesh?

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Presentation Outline

Geo-political Significance of Syria

An Overview of Syrian Civil War

Implications of the Syrian Civil War

Conclusion

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The study is qualitative in nature and based on both

primary and secondary data

Primary data has been collected through Interviews.

Secondary data has been collected from books,

journals, reports, news clippings, seminar papers

and internet based articles.

Data Collection Method

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Name Designation Date

Mr. Masudur Rahman Director General, West and Central Asia Wing, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Bangladesh

18 May 2016

Mr. K. M. Ali Reza Deputy Chief, Ministry of Expatriates Welfare and Overseas Employment, Government of Bangladesh

19 May 2016

Mr. Shakirul Islam Chairman, Ovibashi Karmi Unnayan Programme (OKUP)

02 June 2016

List of Respondents

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Geopolitical Significance of Syria

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Geopolitical Significance of Syria Syria is surrounded by some of the largest energy-

rich counties of the world. Syria lies at the centre of two of the most crucial

future gas pipelines: Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline (the “Islamic

Pipeline”) Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey

pipeline (the “Qatar-Turkey Pipeline”) Syria is also a key strategic player for Iran and

Russia to uphold their interest in the Middle East.

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Geopolitical Significance of Syria

90%

8%1% 1%

Figure 01: Ethnic groups in Syria

Arab-90 %

Kurds-8 %

Armenians-1%

Others-1 % 74%

10%

3%3% 10%

Figure 02: Religious Groups in Syria

Sunni-74%

Alawites-10%

Druze-3%

Other Muslim-3%

Christians-10%

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An Overview of Syrian Civil War

Genesis of the Crisis

Key Actors

Time line of the

Conflict

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Syrian Civil War: An Overview Counterinsurgency means government’s campaign to restore order

and ensure its own reach throughout the geographical confines of the state against armed opponents who aims at overthrowing the government. In this case, counterinsurgency in Syria describes the Assad regime’s attempts to regain control over the whole of its territory, an objective which was abandoned by the fall of 2012.

Civil war implies that controlling the entire territory within the state is no longer feasible because the armed opposition has become strong enough to stop government’s advancement consistently. In case of Syria, the insurgency transitioned to a civil war when the opposition forces successfully overran regimes’ positions in the northern region and closed to Damascus in 2012.

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Autocratic nature of President Bashar al-Assad Inevitable re-balancing of power along ethnic and

religious lines Deteriorated social and economic condition Competing gas interest among the countries of the

Middle East as well as Russia Water crisis in Syria Inadequate and faulty response from the

government to address the crisis

Genesis of the Crisis

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State Level Actors

Regional Level Actors

Global Level Actors

Key Actors

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Key State level Actors

The government of Baath Party headed by president Bashar al-Assad

The government of Baath Party headed by president Bashar al-Assad

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Key Regional Level Actors

Iran

Iraq

Lebanon

Iran

Iraq

Lebanon

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Key Global Level Actors

Russia

China

Russia

China

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• The unrest began in the southern city of Deraa

March 2011

• Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed by 7 defecting Syrian officers

August 2011

• Jabhat al-Nusra – the new al-Qaeda franchise in Syria announced its creation.

January 2012

Syrian Civil War Timeline

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• Mr. Kofi Annan was appointed as the UN-Arab League Joint Special Representative for Syria.

February 2012

• For the first time, a UN official, Herve Ladsous, UN’s head of peacekeeping proclaimed Syria to be in a state of civil war .

June 2012

• The International Committee of the Red Cross also declared Syria in the state of a civil war

July 2012


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• ISIS was created. April 2013

• Government of Syria was accused of using chemical weapon to civilians. August 2013

• A presidential election was held in which Bashar al-Assad was elected for the third term.

June 2014


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• USA made its first military intervention in Syria jointly with five Arab allies.

September 2014

• Army of Conquest was formed by eight Islamist rebel factions.March 2015

• Russia launched its first air strike in Syria. September 2015


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• Global powers initiated a peace process in Vienna known as talks of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) in which Iran took part for the forst time.

October 2015

• UN announced the formal start of peace talk for Syria.February 2016

• The UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2268 on 26 February 2016 that demanded all parties to comply with the terms of a USA-Russian deal on a “cessation of hostilities”.

February 2016


Implications of

the Syrian Civil War

Implications of the Syrian Civil War

1. Implications at National Level

2. Implications at Regional Level

3. Linking National and Regional Impacts with Global Implications

Implications at

National Level

According to the Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR), it is estimated that the deadliest war has directly

and indirectly killed 470,000 Syrians.

Implications at National Level

More than half (13.5 million ) of the country’s population has been internally displaced.

The civil war has massively devastated Syria and its people

Life expectancy has dropped from 70.5 years in 2010 to an estimated 55.4 years in 2015 and mortality rate has

increased from 4.4 per thousand in 2010 to 10.9 per thousand in 2015.


More than half of all Syrian refugees are under the age of 18 and most them have been out of school for

years. The older children are forced to grow up too fast for

finding work and taking care of their families in desperate circumstances.


13.8 million Syrians have lost their source of livelihood

Prices in conflict zones are much higher than elsewhere in the country and in 2014 consumer

prices rose 53 per cent from 2013

Economic structure of Syria has almost been demolished.

Poverty increased by 85 per cent in 2015.


The destruction within Syria has devastated many Syrian cities and historic sites. The war has affected 290 heritage sites including all 06 UNESCO World Heritage Sites in

Syria.

Culture


Syria’s civil war is grinding down the country’s national mechanism and creating the conditions for continuing the

conflict. Although the national government survives on paper, but it does not exercise direct control over its national security, services and institutions that might

create further mayhem within Syria.

Implications at

Regional Level

Implications at Regional Level Challenge to

implement Turkey’s Middle

East policy known as

“zero problems with

neighbours”. Shiite-Sunni reconciliation will become

more difficult.

Kurd goals for a single Kurd state and will

raise tensions in Turkey , Iraq and

Iran.

Tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran

might ignite Shiite Sunni conflict in a

larger context.

A major influx of refugees with approximately 500,000

displaced people. Existing anti-government sentiment among Jordan’s Salafist community may

increase.

Refugee crisis in Lebanon.

Deepening the political impasse

between the country’s two most powerful

political players-March 8 (Shiite)

and March14 (Sunni)

alliances. Possible transfer of chemical

weapons to Hezbollah. A rebel government with a

strong Islamist character is also threat for Israel.

Implications at Regional Level

The large presence of refugees takes a significant financial toll as well as influence security environments

of the various states along Syria’s border.

Sectarian tensions worsened by the war will matter to influence both domestic and regional political

systems.

Pre-existing tensions, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq and Turkey could deteriorate further and might

turn into open conflict.

Implications at

Global Level

Implications at Global Level

Political vacuum created by the crisis has allowed Russia to attain the status of a dominant player in

shaping the future of the Middle East.

Corrosive effect on West’s relations with both Russia and China and disagreement between the both have

increased the rift.

Biggest wave of disorderly migration after the Second World War. According to UNHCR, total number of worldwide displaced people reached 59.5 million at

the end of 2014, with a 40 per cent increase taking place since 2011 and among them Syrian refugees

became the largest refugee group.

Implications at Global Level

Adverse impact on global oil market.

Rise of ISIS and other extremist organisations.

Destruction of Syria’s precious culture is a great loss for global culture and heritage.

Possibility of an inclusive peace process.

Implications on

Bangladesh

Implications on Bangladesh

Instability in Syria in particular and in the Middle East as a whole might hamper the overseas employment

market of Bangladesh.

2012 2013 2014 20150

200000

400000

600000 6,07,798

4,09,253 4,25,6845,55,881

Year

Tot

al N

umbe

r of O

vers

eas

Em

ploy

men

t

Implications on Bangladesh

Bangladeshi diaspora living in the Middle Eastern region might get radicalised by the ideology of the rising

extremist groups.

Recent tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran has posed a challenge for Bangladesh.

Syrian crisis might open new window of opportunity for Bangladesh as the country can send skilled and

semi-skilled workers to Syria to assist in post-conflict reconstruction stage.

Open Discussion

syrian civil war: impact on global peace and stability

Education