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Syria and Chemical Weapons: Building a World Free of WMD

Paul F. Walker, Ph.D.Director, Security & Sustainability

Green Cross InternationalWashington DC, USA

George Mason UniversityFairfax, VirginiaOctober 16, 2013

Alleged CW Use in Syria July 23, 2012 – Syria

confirms CW December 23 – Homs

attack, 7 killed March 19, 2013 –

Aleppo & Damascus March 24 – Adra April 13 – Aleppo April 29 – Saraqeb

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Syria’s CWC Accession August 21, 2013 – Large

scale CW attack in Ghouta region. 1,400+ killed, including 400 children.

September 14 – Syria accedes to CWC

October 14 – CWC enters into force for Syria as 190th State Party

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World War I

Over 1 million injured by gas attacks, and some 90,000 killed

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Chemical Weapons Threats Iran-Iraq War Iraq attack on Halabja

in 1988 1991 Gulf War 1995 Tokyo subway

attack Ongoing terrorist

threats of WMD Syria 2012-2013

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8 Declared CW Stockpiles Russia 40,000 metric tons USA 28,600 metric tons India 1,000+ metric tons (est)

South Korea 1,000+ metric tons (est)

Libya 26+ metric tons Albania 16 metric tons Iraq na Syria 1,000 metric tons (est)

TOTAL 72,500 +/- metric tons

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Declared U.S. CW Stockpile: 31,495 US tons(9 stockpile sites in 8 states and Johnston Atoll)

Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityTooele, Utah (44%)

Newport Chemical DepotNewport, Indiana (4%)

Pueblo Chemical DepotPueblo, Colorado (8%)

Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityPine Bluff, Arkansas (12%)

Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityHermiston, Oregon (12%)

Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityTooele, Utah (44%)

Aberdeen Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityEdgewood, Maryland (5%)Newport Chemical Agent

Disposal FacilityNewport, Indiana (4%)

Blue Grass Army Depot Richmond, Kentucky (2%)

Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityAnniston, Alabama (7%)

Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityPine Bluff, Arkansas (12%)

Pueblo Chemical DepotPueblo, Colorado (8%)

Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal SystemSouth Pacific (6%)

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Declared R.F. CW Stockpile: 40,000 tons(7 stockpiles in 5 Oblasts and the Udmurt Republic)

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Shchuch’ye Chemical Weapons

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Shchuch’ye Stockpile

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Chemical Weapons Convention Entered into force in

1997 190 States Parties CW stockpiles

destroyed by 2012 Inspection of

commercial industry Five-year RevCons

2003, 2008, & 2013

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CW Destruction in US 1990 – present 25,650 MT destroyed

(90%) 7 stockpiles closed $25 billion+ spent to

date 10 more years to go 2 facilities under

construction

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CW Destruction in Russia 2002 – present 30,400 MT destroyed

(76%) 2 stockpiles

neutralized $7+ billion spent to

date 3-6+ years to go

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Other CWD Progress Albania – 16 MT destroyed

(100%) 2007 South Korea – 1,000+ MT

destroyed (100%) 2008 India – 1,000+ MT

destroyed (100%) 2009 Libya – 23 +/- MT destroyed

(88%) (excl. Sched. 2) Iraq – Declared 2009 Syria – Declared 2013

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Russian CW Demil (est. Sept 2013)

Gorny neutralized Dec02-Dec05 – 1,143 MT Kambarka neutralized Dec05-Apr09 – 6,349 MT Maradikovsky neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since

Sept 06 (6,890 MT total) Leonidovka neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since 2008

(6,885 MT total) Shchuch’ye neutralized 4,350 MT (80%) since

March 2009 (5,456 MT total) Pochep neutralized 4,500 MT (60%) since

November 2010 (7,498 MT) Kizner to open late 2013 (5,745 MT)

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US CW Demil (Feb 2012)

Johnston Atoll – 1990-2000, 100% destroyed Tooele – 1996-2012, 100% destroyed Anniston – 2003-2011, 100% destroyed Aberdeen – 2003-2005, 100% destroyed Umatilla – 2004-2011, 100% destroyed Pine Bluff – 2005-2011, 100% destroyed Newport – 2005-2008, 100% neutralized Pueblo – 2014-2017, 0% (2,520 tons) Blue Grass – 2018-2021, 0% (523 tons)

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Challenge #1 – Cost US cost first estimated

at $2B Now approaching $40B RF cost first estimated

at $3-4B Now estimated at $10B+ Not including non-

stockpile & sea-dumped

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Challenge #2 – Technology High temperature

incineration or low temperature neutralization

Management of effluent toxic wastes

Impacts on public health & environment

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Challenge #3 – Emergency Preparedness

Most communities feel ill-prepared

Gas masks, plastic & duct tape distributed for “shelter in place”

Early warning radios and sirens lacking

Transportation for evacuation

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Challenge #4 – Community Investment and Involvement

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Shchuch’ye, Kurgan Oblast

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Challenge #5 – Transparency

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Green Cross Outreach Office Proactive outreach to

local & regional constituencies

Reactive response to all inquiries

Facilitation of stakeholder involvement

Empowerment of local communities

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Community Outreach

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Challenge #6 – CWC Deadlines

CWC stockpile destruction deadlines: April 2000 – 1% of stockpiles (3 yrs after EIF) April 2002 – 20% of stockpiles (5 yrs) April 2004 – 45% of stockpiles (7 yrs) April 2007 – 100% of stockpiles (10 yrs) April 2012 – 5-year extension (15 yrs)

No possessor State Party has met all deadlines

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CWC Deadlines (cont.) United States

Met 1% (2000) and 20% (2002) deadlines Met 3-yr extended 45% deadline (2007) Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012

Russian Federation Met 3-yr extended 1% and 5-yr extended 20%

deadlines Received 5+-yr extension for 45% deadline to

December 2009 Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012

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CWC Deadlines (cont.) Albania – Did not request 100% extended

deadline and missed April 2007 by 2 months India – Met 100% deadline extension to

April 2009 (2 yr extension) South Korea – Met 100% deadline extension

to December 2008 (20-mo ext) Libya – Received 100% deadline extensions

to Dec. 2010, Dec. 2011, Apr. 2012, and Dec. 2016

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Challenge #7 – Congressional Deadline

Congress has mandated December 2017 as final deadline for completing CWD

Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO): “It is no secret that DOD is going to miss the 2012 treaty deadline for weapons destruction at Pueblo. That's what happens when you drag your feet and fail to put adequate resources behind a program… This is absurd, especially with DOD's own admission that with higher funding levels they could complete destruction at Pueblo a full five years earlier than that.” (25 Feb 08)

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What’s to be Done? Emphasis must be placed on the critical

importance of State Parties to fully fund and implement their ongoing chemical weapons destruction programs – US – $400-500M+/yr for construction US Cooperative Threat Reduction – $50M+/yr

for CWD RF – $1B+/yr for CW destruction G-8 Global Partnership – $100M+/yr

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What’s to be Done?

Don’t underestimate public concerns and political power – be transparent and involve stakeholders – preclude legal suits

Recognize inherent tension between cost, schedule, transparency, & safety – protection of public health & environment

Improve US-RF relations and move beyond recent G-8 Global Partnership differences

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What’s to be Done? Promote full CWC

universality Six countries

Angola Egypt Israel Myanmar (Burma) North Korea South Sudan

The Challenge of Syria

OPCW to inspect and inventory Syrian declaration

All weapons, agents, production & lab facilities destroyed

Full security & safety guaranteed for inspectors & workers

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The Challenge of Syria What does Syria’s CW

stockpile consist of? What destruction

technologies are best? Can the chemicals,

agents, and weapons be moved?

How much will this all cost?

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Buried Chemical Weapons

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Spring Valley, Washington DC

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Sea-Dumped Chemical Weapons

UN Resolution on SDCW

Notes the importance of raising public awareness of the environmental effects…

Invites Member States…to cooperate and voluntarily share relevant information…

Invites the Secretary-General to seek the views of Member States and relevant regional and international organizations at 68th UN General Assembly in 2013…

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WMDFZ in the Middle East

Syria’s CWC accession provides incentive for Israel & Egypt to join

Also encourages all to join BWC

And begin to address nuclear weapons in the Mideast – Israel & Iran

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Green Cross International1100 15th Street, NW

Suite 1100

Washington, DC 20005, USA

+1-202-222-0700 tel

www.gcint.org

www.globalgreen.org

pwalker@globalgreen.org