synovate zambia opinion poll report july 2011

8/4/2019 Synovate Zambia Opinion Poll Report July 2011

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2011. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.

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payment of related professional services fees in full.

SPEC (Social, Political, Economic

and Cultural) Barometer

July 2011 Survey Findings

Date: 23rd August 2011


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When I read or see a report of a poll, how can I tell

whether to take it seriously or not?

Methodology: Target group - who was interviewed?

Sampling method used random sampling or purposive sampling? Geographical coverage .

Questions asked were the questions leading? Bases proportion of respondent who answered a particular

question.

Affiliations & Membership:

Members of Market and Social Research Association (MSRA)www.msra.co.keMember of ESOMAR (European Society for Market Research)

www.esomar.comAdheres to the ESOMAR guidelines on public opinion polling
http://www.msra.co.ke/http://www.esmomar.com/http://www.esmomar.com/http://www.msra.co.ke/


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Study Objective

The objective of the study was to determine

Zambians perception towardsgovernance

and

up coming elections.


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Methodology


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Poll Methodology

Dates of polling July 2011

Sample Size 1463 respondents

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS

Universe Zambian adults, aged 18+ living in Urbanand Rural areas

Data collection

methodology

Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the

household level


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Rationale

Sampling Methodology:

Multistage Stratified Sampling The survey covered all the 9 provinces however, this approach was used to

randomly select the regions (districts, constituencies & wards to be includedin the survey.

PPS (Population Proportional to Size) Used to ensure representativeness of the sample for each area targeted In using this approach the samples were distributed based on population

sizes. The 2000 National Population Census and Housing data was used during

sample allocation. Use of the Census data so that findings can be projected to the population.

Universe Targeted respondents who are 18 years and above as they represent the

universe of eligible voters.


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Sample split by Province

64%

36%

Distribution - Urban- RuralN=1463

Rural Urban

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Copperbelt

Lusaka

Eastern

Northern

Southern

Central

Luapula

Western

North Western

17%

15%

13%

13%

12%

10%

8%

8%

6%


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Perceptions Towardsgovernance and

topical issues


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What would you say is the most important problemfacing your community today?

Poverty Water andSanitation

Unemployment Infrastructuredevelopment

Health Education

24%

21%

17% 17%

8%

3%

26%

21%

16% 16%

8%

4%

22%23%

19%18%

6%

2%

Total Rural Urban

N: 1463


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Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Lusaka North Western Northern Southern Western

1%3%

1%3%

0%2%

0%3%

10%

16%

21% 21%

11%

31%

17%

22%20%

44%

16%

30%

16%

39%

29%

14%

29%

27%

20%

2%

9%

4% 5%

0%

5%

1%

7% 7%

61%

37%

57%

38%40%

56%

46%

42%

20%

5%

1% 1%

5%

0%

6%

1% 1% 0%

Very much improved Improved Got worse Got much worse Just the same No answer/refused

Has the standard of living improved or gotten worse inthe last 4 years?

N: 1463


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Increased a lot Increased a little The same Decreased a little Decreased a lot Don't know

41%

22%

17%

8% 8%

3%

42%

22%

20%

9%

3%4%

40%

22%

13%

6%

18%

1%

Total Rural Urban

As far as you know has unemployment Increased or decreasedover the last 4 years?

N: 1463


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Do you expect that life for the next generation in Zambia willbe better, remain the same as it is now, or become worse?

Total Rural Urban Male Female

53%55%

49%

54%

51%

33% 34%31% 31%

35%

14%

11%

19%

15%14%

Will be better Remain the same as it is now Become worse

N: 1463


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How well do you think our government is performing insolving the following issues in Zambia?

Access toeducation

Economicgrowth

Corruption Access tohealth

facilities/healthcare

Constitutionaland electoral

reform

Attractingforeign

investment

Improvinginfrastracture,

Roads andTransportation

Agriculture

14%

7% 7%

10%

5%

15%

12%

28%

56%

40%

19%

39%

32%

56%

39%

54%

25%

36% 38% 36%

32%

17%

34%

13%

5%

11%

34%

15%

18%

5%

15%

4%

0%

5%

2%0%

14%

6%

0% 1%

Very good Good Poor Very poor DK

N: 1463


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Very Satisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied Very dissatisfied

9%

47%

30%

14%

10%

53%

26%

11%

7%

35%

39%

19%

Total Rural Urban

How satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Zambiatoday?

N: 1463


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Awareness and opinions on the Barotse land agreement

Yes68%

No32%

Are you aware of the Barotseland agreement?

Should be allowed toprevail/adopted

Should be ignored Should berenegotiated

No opinion/Noresponse

9%

42%

38%

12%

What are your views about theBarotse land agreement?

N: 1463

N: 999


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Perceptions on

elections


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Top Box (Likely) Bottom Box (Unlikely) No answer/refused

80%

16%

3%

If presidential and parliamentary elections were to be heldtoday how likely are you to vote?

N: 1463


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Thinking about how Zambia elects its president, which ofthe following methods do you think is the best?

Prefer current system Prefer majori tysystem(50% +1 of

votes cast)

Don't know No answer/refused

48%

44%

5%3%

53%

39%

5%3%

39%

53%

5% 4%

Total Rural Urban

N: 1463


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Do you think the Electoral Commission of Zambia(ECZ) iscapable of conducting free and fair elections?

Total Rural Urban

61%64%

55%

39%36%

45%

Yes

No

N: 1463


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Which political party do you feel closest to?

Rural Urban Male Female

48%

32%

38%

46%

31%

48%

40%

35%

17%

11%

17%

13%

2% 2% 2%1%

2%4%

3% 3%

MMD 42% PF 37% UPND 15% Others 2% Refused 3%

N: 1463


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Which partys candidates would you vote for as member of

parliament if elections were to be held today?

Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Lusaka NorthWestern

Northern Southern Western

37%

31%

81%

36%33%

52%

30% 29%

48%

34%

56%

12%

57%

40%

28%

65%

11%

18%21%

4% 3% 1%

14%17%

2%

52%

15%

4% 4%2% 3%

5%2% 3%

7%

MMD PF UPND Refused

N: 1463


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If elections were held today which political partywould you vote for?

MMD PF UPND Others Refused

42%

37%

15%

2%3%

MMD PF UPND Others Refused

N: 1463


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63

% 32%

3%

42%32%19%

58

% 32% 5

%

61%

30%

2%

40

%

37

% 15%

49%

29% 18

%

54%31%

11%

50

% 17%

15%

81%

12% 3

%

If elections were held today which political partywould you vote for?

N: 1463


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17%

83%

Read manifesto

Yes

No

Have you read any of the political party manifestos?

N: 1463


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What informs your decision on who to vote for in anelection?

N: 1463

External Influence Candidates character Leadership qualities Party Affiliation

3%

23%

42%

18%


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Has the splitting of the PACT influenced your choice ofpresidential candidate?

7%

93%

Yes No

N: 1463


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42%

37%

15%

Presidential candidate would votefor

Rupiah Banda

Michael Sata

Hakainde Hichilema

If presidential elections were held today whomwould you vote for if that person was a candidate?

N: 1463


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Leadership experience Seeks to improve people'swelfare

Has clearly articulated theirvision for the country

Past performance in publicoffice

Fights corruption

53%

48% 47%

31%

22%20%

41%

61%

7%11%

59%

53%

48%

40%

31%

63%

49%47%

34%

19%

Total Hakainde Hichilema Michael Sata Rupiah Banda

Reasons to vote for the selected presidentialcandidates.

N: 1463


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Unemployment Improve accessthe

Medicare/drugs

Repair/Improvetransport

network-rural

urban

Improve accessto clean waterand enhance

sanitation

Revamp the Fightagainst corruption

Increase theminimum wagefor civil servants

88%

53% 52%

41%

36%

22%

86%

56%58%

46%

33%

21%

92%

48%

41%

32%

41%

23%

Total

Rural

Urban

What would you like the govt to address after the elections?

N: 1463

What do you think the role of the media should be in the up


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What do you think the role of the media should be in the upcoming elections?

31% 31% 31% 32% 31%

37%35%

41%

37% 38%

18% 17% 17% 18%15%14%

17%

11%13%

16%

Provide coverage for al l candidates/parties Should provide non biased reporting

Participate in educating the masses/sensitization Highlight issues of concern which need to be addressed

N: 1463


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Thank You

Q&A.


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For more comprehensive analysis regarding the Poll

contact:

Annie Kaluba Senior Research Manager

[email protected]

David Chibanja Business Development Manager

[email protected]

+260 211 263414 or follow the discussion on

://tweeter/SynovateZambia
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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SPEC QUESTIONS COVERED IN THE SURVEY

Q1. In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Zambia today? [DONT READ RESPONSES] SINGLE

MENTION

Q2.What would you say is the most important problem facing your community today? [DONT READ RESPONSES]SINGLE MENTION

Q3.I would like to ask you some general questions regarding our country. On the whole, are things in Zambia generallygoing in the rightdirection, or are they going in the wrong direction?

Q4.And how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Zambia today? Are you very satisfied, satisfied,dissatisfied, or very

dissatisfied?

Q5. Using a scale of 1 to 4, were 1 is strongly agree and 4 is strongly disagree. How would you rate the followingstatements ?

Q6. Has the standard of living improved or got worse in the last 4 years?

Q7. ASK ALL:WHO MENTION 6a or 6b, (OTHERWISE SKIP TO Q8)what does very much improved or improved standard of living mean to you?

Q8. As far as you know has unemployment increased or decreased over the last 4 year?

Q9. Looking to the future, do you expect that li fe for the next generation in Zambia will be better, remain the same as it isnow, or worse?

Q10. I would like to ask you about domestic politics in our country. How well do you think our government is performingin solving thefollowing issues in Zambia ? Would you say...


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Q11. How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption? Would you say they are?

Very committedCommitted....Not committed.Not committed at all

Q12. How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions over the last 1 year?Tell me do you; highly approve, approve, disapprove or highly disapprove of them?

Q13. Are you registered as voter?

Q14. When did you register as a voter?

Q15.ASK ALL WHO MENTION Q14(a), (OTHERWISE SKIP TO Q16)was this the first time or you have registered as a voter

before?

Q16. Did you vote in the 2008 elections?

Q17. Were you generally satisfied or dissatisfied with the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) conduct of the election in2008?

Q18.Which political party do you feel closest to if any?

Q19.If presidential elections were held today, which party would you vote for?

Q20.Have you read any of the political party manifestos?

Q21.IF YES IN Q20 ASK: Which political party manifestos have you read? (OTHERWISE SKIP Q22)

Q22.What informs your decision on who to vote for in an election?


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Q23. If presidential elections were held today, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?SINGLE MENTION

Q24. What are the three main reasons why you would vote for (INT:READ OUT CANDIDATE MENTIONED IN Q23)...

Q25. What are the three main factors that affect your preference for the choice of a presidential candidate?

Q26. If presidential elections were held today,whom would you not vote for if that person was a candidate? SINGLE MENTION

Q27. What is the main reason why you would NOT vote for (INT:READ OUT CANDIDATE MENTIONED IN Q27)SINGLEMENTION

Q28. Has the splitting of the PACT influenced your choice of presidential candidate?

Q29. When thinking about how Zambia elects its president, which of the following methods do you think is the best. The currentmethodwhere the candidate with the largest percentage of the vote wins, (sometimes called the simple majority system), or a methodthatrequires the winning candidate to achieve more than 50% +1 of the vote cast even if that means a second round, or a runoffelection

of the top two candidates in the intial round?

Q30. How important is it to you personally that the method of electing the president in Zambia be changed?

Q31. If there was an election for parliament in the next few weeks, how likely is it that you will vote in that election?

Q32.Which party's candidate would you vote as member of parliament if election were to be held today?SINGLE MENTION

Q33. Thinking specifically about your own local council, are you satisfied with the overall performance of the local council?


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Q34. Do you feel that the members of your local council care about the same issues as you?

Q35. Has any member of your local council ever contacted you about the issues that are important to you?

Q36. What would you l ike the government to address after the elections?MULTI MENTION.

Q37. Do you think the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) is capable of conducting free and fair elections?

Q38.Why?MULTI MENTION.

Q39. Do you think gay rights should be an election issue?

Q40.Why do you say so?

Q41. What do you think should be the role of the media in the upcoming general elections?SINGLE MENTION

Q42. Have you seen or heard any election advert/documentary/articles featuring any political party?

Q43. [IF YES] On which of the following channels have you seen or heard the advert?

Q44. [ASK ALL WHO MENTIONED 43b OR 43c] Which television / Radio station did you see/hear the advertising on?

Q45. Can you recall what the main theme of the advertising was?

Q46. In general did you approve or disapprove of the advertising that you saw or heard?

Q47. Did you find the message in the political advertisement believable?


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Q48. Are you aware about the Barotse land agreement

Q49. What are your views about the Barotse land agreement

Q50. Are you proud to be Zambian?

Q51. What is the single most important reason that makes you proud to be Zambian?

Q52. How likely is this community to engage in violence that is politically driven?

Q53. Have you noticed any violent trends in your community that are politically motivated?

Q54. Would you say individual or groups are responsible for instigating this violence?

Q55. Which people would these be?

Q56. How often does this violence happen?

Q57. Who are the people that are mostly involved in this kind of violence?

Q58. What do you think is the main reason this violence erupts in the community?

Q59. Do you think government - or specifically the law enforcement are doing enough to address the issue of politicalviolence?

Q60. What are they doing?


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Q61. How would you rate the performance of the following in combating political violence in this area in the last 3 months?Would you say it was very good, good, poor or very poor.....

Q62. What do you think can be done to reduce the violent trends in your community?

Q63. [Do not read out] Interviewer: Indicate gender

Q64. How old are you?

Q64. What tribe are you?

Q66. What is your main occupation?

Q67. Which of the following best describes your current education status?

synovate zambia opinion poll report july 2011

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