Synoptic/Meso-scale Comparison of Synoptic/Meso-scale Comparison of Recent Historic Tornado EventsRecent Historic Tornado Events

Marc KavinskyMarc Kavinsky

Senior Forecaster – Milwaukee/Sullivan WFOSenior Forecaster – Milwaukee/Sullivan WFO

NWA 31NWA 31stst Annual Meeting 14-19 October 2006 Annual Meeting 14-19 October 2006

19 October 200619 October 2006

NOAA’s National Weather ServiceNOAA’s National Weather Service

NOAA’s National Weather Service

Recent Historic Wisconsin Tornado Recent Historic Wisconsin Tornado EventsEvents

• 23 June 200423 June 2004– 55thth Largest Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History Largest Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History

• 17 Tornadoes - 3 F3’s, 2 F2’s17 Tornadoes - 3 F3’s, 2 F2’s• 1 death1 death• 28.8 million damage28.8 million damage

•18 August 200518 August 2005– Worst Tornado Outbreak in Worst Tornado Outbreak in

Wisconsin HistoryWisconsin History• 27 Tornadoes – 1 F3, 2 F2’s27 Tornadoes – 1 F3, 2 F2’s• New daily, monthly (27)New daily, monthly (27)• New yearly record (62)New yearly record (62)

» Previous yearly record was 43 -1980Previous yearly record was 43 -1980• 43 million damage43 million damage• 1 death, 27 injuries1 death, 27 injuries

Supercell/Severe Wx ForecastingSupercell/Severe Wx Forecasting

BL - 6 km Bulk Shear BL - 6 km Bulk Shear BL - 3 km Bulk Shear BL - 3 km Bulk Shear

40 kts and higher 40 kts and higher 30 kts and higher 30 kts and higher

0-3 km Storm Relative 0-3 km Storm Relative HelicityHelicity

150 m2/s2 and higher150 m2/s2 and higher

Mean Layer Cape Mean Layer Cape (MLCape)(MLCape)

1000 j/kg and higher1000 j/kg and higher

Mid Level Lapse Rates/ Mid Level Lapse Rates/ WBZ/Freezing Lvl Height/ WBZ/Freezing Lvl Height/ ThetaE DifferenceThetaE Difference

Indicators for hail and Indicators for hail and microburstsmicrobursts

BoundariesBoundaries Windshift, Density, Windshift, Density, ThermalThermal

Moderate to Strong PotentialModerate to Strong Potential

F2-F5 Tornadic Supercell ForecastingF2-F5 Tornadic Supercell Forecasting

0-1 km Bulk Shear0-1 km Bulk Shear 20 kts or more20 kts or more

Mean Layer LCLMean Layer LCL 1.2 km (3900 ft) or less1.2 km (3900 ft) or less

0-1 km Storm Relative 0-1 km Storm Relative HelicityHelicity

100 m2/s2 or more100 m2/s2 or more

Mean Layer CINMean Layer CIN -50 j/kg or higher-50 j/kg or higher

0-3 km CAPE0-3 km CAPE 60 j/kg or more60 j/kg or more

0-3 km Vorticity Generation 0-3 km Vorticity Generation PotentialPotential

0.30 or greater0.30 or greater

Mean Layer LFCMean Layer LFC <2 km (6500 ft)<2 km (6500 ft)

Strong BoundariesStrong Boundaries

Moderate to Strong PotentialModerate to Strong Potential

24 June 2004 4 panel 01z 24 June 2004 4 panel 01z

24 June 2004 – 300 mb 01z24 June 2004 – 300 mb 01z

23 June 2004 Supercell Forecast23 June 2004 Supercell Forecast

60

55

50

40

0-6 km Bulk Shear

1000

1500

2000

ML Cape

150

200

250

0-3 km SRH

Surface Boundary

00z/24

23 June 2004 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast23 June 2004 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast

0-3 km Cape

125

100

75

50

15

20

25

0-1 km Bulk Shear

<-50

>-50

MLCIN0-3 km VGP

0.2

0.3

0.35

0.2

2500 2000

1500

1000

MLLCL

00z/24

23 June 2004 - Tornadoes23 June 2004 - Tornadoes

F0-F1

F2

F3

19 August 2005 – 4 panel 00z19 August 2005 – 4 panel 00z

19 August 2005 – 250 mb 01z19 August 2005 – 250 mb 01z

18 August 2005 Supercell Forecast18 August 2005 Supercell Forecast

40

45

50

0-6 km Bulk Shear

150

200

250

300

400

0-3 km SRH

1000

1500

20002500

MLCape

L1003

23z/18

18 August 2005 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast18 August 2005 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast

15

20

30

0-1km Bulk Shear

200

150

100

0-3 km CapeMLCIN All CIN greater than -50

2600

3300

2000

MLLCL

0.5

0.40.3

0.2

0.10-3km VGP

23z/18

18 August 2005 - Tornadoes18 August 2005 - Tornadoes

F0-F1

F2

F3

Conclusions…Conclusions…

• Remain aware of Near Storm Environment Remain aware of Near Storm Environment parameters and if time allows, perform hourly parameters and if time allows, perform hourly mesoscale analysis using mesonet, RUC, mesoscale analysis using mesonet, RUC, TAMDAR, BUFkit, SPC MesoanalysisTAMDAR, BUFkit, SPC Mesoanalysis

• Look for low level boundary interaction with Look for low level boundary interaction with axis of severe weather and strong tornado axis of severe weather and strong tornado parametersparameters

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

• Mark Gehring – Forecaster MKXMark Gehring – Forecaster MKX

• SPC/OAX – MesoAnalysis/ArchiveSPC/OAX – MesoAnalysis/Archive

• Bill Borghoff – graphicsBill Borghoff – graphics

• Jeff Craven – Science Operations Officer MKXJeff Craven – Science Operations Officer MKX