Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenario for India

Shivika MittalIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

The 18th AIM International Workshop

Flow of the Presentation

1. Basic Information about the target region2. Contribution of Transport to India’s total CO2 emissions 3. Objectives4. Strategies for Sustainable Low Carbon Transport5. Scenario assumptions6. Results

371857

1224614

Population, 1692008

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Population

17.2

9

18 19.9

1

23.3

1

25.7

3

27.8

2

31.1

6

32.8 34

.8 37.2 39

.8 42.6 45

.6 48.7 51

.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

%

Urbanisation : %

Population density, 514.7

0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Pers

on/s

qkm

Population density

India: Demographics and Economic Growth

0%20%40%60%80%100%

195

0-51

195

5-56

196

0-61

196

5-66

197

0-71

197

5-76

198

0-81

198

5-86

199

0-91

199

5-96

2000

-01

2005

-06

(P)

Composition of VehiclesThree wheelers

Good vehicles

Buses

Four wheelers (Cars, jeeps andtaxis)Two wheeler

Energy,(66%)992836.3

industry, 405862.9

LULUCF , 98330

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Energy industry LULUCF

Total CO2 emissions in 2007

Contribution of Transport to India’s total CO2 emissions

72%

14%

7%4% 3%

Share of the energy related CO2 emissions

Electricity generation TransportResidential Other energy industriesAgriculture Commerical

Source : MOEF(2010)

87%

5%7% 1%

Share of transport related CO2 emissions

Road Railways Aviation Navigation

4

Objectives

• Assess long-term transitions of the national transport system under low carbon stabilization scenarios• Long term emission trajectories using different demand and supply side strategies under different scenarios

Strategies for Sustainable Low Carbon Transport

6

•Sustainable mobility :•Reducing the number of trips : shifting to ICT

technologies i.e. video conferencing, online shopping •Reducing the average travel distance: by improving

land-use planning

Demand side strategies • Sustainable energy : Cleaner fuels (bio-fuels,

renewable electricity)• Sustainable technologies : reducing car size • Increasing the modal share of less energy intensive

mode like railways, public transport & NMT

Supply Side strategies

Scenario assumptionsScenario Key Drivers Critical parameters

Sustainable Low carbon transport Scenario

Shift from fossil fuels, high share of mass transit system, Sectoral demand, Energy efficiency

Transport demand (↓) , Efficiency improvement (↑) , penetration of renewable technologies(↑) fuel consumption(↓) ,

Climate Centric Scenario Carbon tax, strong global environmental concerns, rate of technological change, access to global technologies , technology transfer

Early penetration of advanced and clean technologies, technology development rate (↑)

Business As Usual Scenario

0.000

500.000

1,000.000

1,500.000

2,000.000

2,500.000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045 2050

Total CO2 Emissions(MtCO2eq )

CO2

0.000

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045 2050

Total Energy Consumption(Mtoe)

OLG OLD ELY CNG OLJ OLDR

Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenario

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

BL BL Fuel_Switch Dem_Red Dem_Eff BL Fuel_Switch Dem_Red Dem_Eff

2010 2030 2050

MtC

O2e

q

2010 BL

2030 BL

2030 Fuel_Switch

2030 Dem_Red

2030 Dem_Eff

2050 BL

2050 Fuel_Switch

2050 Dem_Red

2050 Dem_Eff

Emission Reduction

Climate Centric Scenario

129.324

680.170655.715630.045

1,925.1771,860.511

1,667.663

0.000

500.000

1,000.000

1,500.000

2,000.000

2,500.000

BL BL

Adva

_Tec

Clea

n_El

ect BL

Adva

_Tec

Clea

n_El

ect

2010 2030 2050

MtC

O2e

q

Clean Electricity

Total CO2 Emissions(MtCO2eq)

Technology Penetration

0.000

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Clean_Elect

IND - H_H IND - OLDR IND - JAT

IND - ETH IND - OLJ IND - CNG

IND - ELY IND - OLD IND - OLG

Total Energy Consumption(Mtoe)

Dr. Kshama PuntambekarDepartment of Planning

School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal

Low Carbon Scenario in Transport Sector at Bhopal

Basic information of country and city

Bhopal - Urban Agglomeration Year 2005Two- wheelers 347571.00Autos/ Tempo 10127.00Cars/Taxi 37455.00Buses 8294.00

Goods Carriages 9854.00Tractors/ Others 14675.00Total 427976.00

Population of India - in year 2011 1.22 billion

Population of Madhya Pradesh in year 20117,25,97,565

Population of Bhopal Census 201123,68,145

Vehicular population in Bhopal

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

2W 4W Goods Buses Public others

Vehicular Growth in Bhopal

2005 2008

Residential

34%

Commercial

8%

Mixed7%

Public10% Open

10% Transport15%

Industrial2%

vacant14%

Land Use distribution in Bhopal

Municipal Corporation

Total Population Decadal Growth Rate2001 1991

Indore 1474968 1091674 35.11

Bhopal 1437354 1062771 35.25

Jabalpur 932484 741927 25.68

Gwalior 827026 690765 19.73

Source: Census of India, 2001, 1991

Population

Area of District 2,772 km².

Objectives of the study

Workshop was a learning of application of model inunderstanding the role of Emission tax, Energy tax, discountrate for return and shares of technologies to developScenarios to achieve for Low Carbon Societies.

AIM/Enduse model is applied for projections in TransportSector and Residential Sector for Urban and Rural Areas inBhopal

To develop Local level detailed model for urban and ruralcontext to incorporate the local factors and lifestyle forprecise results.

In the developing countries Study at Local level are importantfor fast growing cities with multiplying demand.

Assumptions Services in Transport Sector

Service Region Sector Unit 2005 2020 2030TRF BhopalR TRANS_R MTKm 103.12 78.283 58.153TRP BhopalR TRANS_R MPKm 646.99 491.114 364.827TUF BhopalU TRANS_U MTKm 154.67 419.697 629.913TUP BhopalU TRANS_U MPKm 2587.95 7022.407 10539.75

Assumption : future energy price (Lakh Rs./GJ)2005 2020 2030

ANM 0.0000000001 0.00000000011 0.0 DSL 850.0 1020.0 1173.0 ELC 860.0 1032.0 1186.8 GSL 900.0 1080.0 1242.0 HVO 800.0 960.0 1104.0 HYD 0.0000000001 0.0 0.0 LPG 410.0 492.0 565.8 LSC 45.0 54.0 62.1 LSHS 900.0 1080.0 1242.0 MAN 0.0000000001 0.0 0.0 NGA 90.0 108.0 124.2 NUF 2000.0 2400.0 2760.0 OIL 100.0 120.0 138.0 SKO 700.0 840.0 966.0 SOL 0.0000000001 0.0 0.0 WIN 0.0000000001 0.0 0.0

2005 2020 20300.0 0.0 0.0

73143.0 73143.0 73143.0 68053.5 68053.5 68053.5

75721.5 75721.5 75721.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

53100.0 53100.0 53100.0 92708.0 92708.0 92708.0 77125.0 77125.0 77125.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 52050.0 52050.0 52050.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 72600.0 72600.0 72600.0 68200.0 68200.0 68200.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Gas - 1 CO2Region - 2 Sector – 2Service - 4Energy – 17Device – 75

Assumption : future emissions) MtCO2eq

CODE REGION SECTOR STOCK SERVICE UNIT OUTPUT QUANTITY ENERGY1 UNIT QTY ENERGY 2 UNIT QUANTITY

T2EU BhopalU TRANS_U 344.017 TUP MPKm 0.020075 GSL GJ 0.3311 HVO GJ 0.0003

T3EU BhopalU TRANS_U 52.794 TUP MPKm 0.0292 GSL GJ 0.551833 HVO GJ 0.0005

T3HU BhopalU TRANS_U 35.196 TUP MPKm 0.1095 ELC GJ 0.367889 GSL GJ 0.5733

T3NU BhopalU TRANS_U 1 TUP MPKm 0.1095 DSL GJ 0.735778 HVO GJ 0

T4DU BhopalU TRANS_U 54.795 TUP MPKm 0.0365 DSL GJ 1.095111 HVO GJ 0.0003

T4OPU BhopalU TRANS_U 7.07 TUP MPKm 0.0365 LPG GJ 0.0602 NGA GJ 0.3554

T4PU BhopalU TRANS_U 56.562 TUP MPKm 0.0365 GSL GJ 0.735778 HVO GJ 0.001

TACU BhopalU TRANS_U 35.17 TUP MPKm 0.00365 ANM GJ 1.82

TBYU BhopalU TRANS_U 115.164 TUP MPKm 0.005475 MAN GJ 0.672

TCCU BhopalU TRANS_U 0 TUP MPKm 0.146 NGA GJ 0.22575 NGA GJ 0.7975

TCEDU BhopalU TRANS_U 103.622 TUP MPKm 0.146 DSL GJ 0.328533 HVO GJ 0.0003

TCEPU BhopalU TRANS_U 459.595 TUP MPKm 0.09125 DSL GJ 0.2464

TTDP BhopalU TRANS_U 0.782 TUP MPKm 146 DSL GJ 0.2416

TTEP BhopalU TRANS_U 3.126 TUP MPKm 182.5 ELC GJ 0.1167

TWPU BhopalU TRANS_U 406.05 TUP MPKm 0.00292 MAN GJ 0.336

Transport Urban Passenger Existing Technology

CODE REGION SECTOR STOCK SERVICE UNIT OUTPUT QUANTITY ENERGY1 UNIT QTY ENERGY 2 UNIT QUANTITY

T3FAU BhopalU TRANS_U 10.827 TUF MTKm 0.009125 GSL GJ 16.42667 HVO GJ 0.0005

T3FTU BhopalU TRANS_U 18.561 TUF MTKm 0.0073 DSL GJ 6.570667 HVO GJ 0.0005

TCEFU BhopalU TRANS_U 1 TUF MTKm 0.001825 DSL GJ 3.285333 HVO GJ 0

TCFU BhopalU TRANS_U 1 TUF MTKm 0.00365 DSL GJ 2.628267 HVO GJ 0

TTDG BhopalU TRANS_U 1.547 TUF MTKm 0.01825 DSL GJ 0.1586

TTEG BhopalU TRANS_U 4.64 TUF MTKm 0.0219 ELC GJ 0.0512

TTHU BhopalU TRANS_U 12.374 TUF MTKm 0.00011 MAN GJ 3.36

TTUU BhopalU TRANS_U 23.201 TUF MTKm 0.001825 DSL GJ 3.285333

Transport Urban Freight Existing Technology

CODE REGION LIFE COST OPT COST SECTOR SERVICE OUTPUT

UNITQUANTIT

YENERGY

1 UNIT QTY ENERGY 2

UNIT

QUANTITY

T2HU 2-wheeler future 4 stroke 15 800 37 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.0219 GSL GJ 0.27591

7 HVO GJ 0.0003

T2NEU 2-wheeler future Electric 15 200 47 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.0146 ELC GJ 0.27591

7

T4DNU Diesel Car New 20 1200 60 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.0365 DSL GJ 0.730074 HVO GJ 0.0003

T4EU Electric Car 20 1900 40 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.01825 ELC GJ 0.36

T4HU Hybrid Car 20 2400 60 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.020075 ELC GJ 0.07357

8 GSL GJ 0.7493

T4OPU LPG/CNG/NGA Car 20 1300 60 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.0365 LPG GJ 0.0602 NGA GJ 0.3554

T4PNU Petrol Car New 20 1100 20 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.0438 GSL GJ 0.613148 HVO GJ 0.0009

T4SU Solar Car 20 1800 30 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.0146 SOL GJ 0.36

TCEU HCV Electric Bus 20 150 18 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.146 ELC GJ 0.2025

TCHU MCV Hybrid 15 400 35 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.00365 DSL GJ 0.016555 NGA GJ 0.046

TCNHU HCV New Diesel Bus 20 110 9 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.146 DSL GJ 0.19712 HVO GJ 0.0003

TCNPU MCV diesel New Passenger 15 200 20 TRANS_U TUP MPKm 0.09125 DSL GJ 0.19712

Transport Urban Passenger Future Technology

CODE REGION LIFE COST OPT COST SECTOR SERVICE OUTPUT

UNIT QUANTITY ENERGY1 UNIT QTY ENERGY 2 UNIT QUANTITY

T3FANU 3WFreight Auto New 4 stroke 15 800 37 TRANS_U TUF MTKm 0.0073 GSL GJ 10.95111 HVO GJ 0.0003

T3FTNU 3WFreight Tempo New 15 1200 65 TRANS_U TUF MTKm 0.009125 DSL GJ 4.928 HVO GJ 0.0005TCNFU MCV diesel New Freight 15 1500 35 TRANS_U TUF MTKm 0.001825 DSL GJ 2.464 HVO GJ 0.0005

Transport Urban Freight Future Technology

Change in Energy Demand And Emission in Free and Controlled Scenario

Controlled Scenario – the technology share is limited, no taxes

Free Scenario – the technology selection is free, high taxes

Energy Demand is increased

Energy Demand and Emission in different scenarios

CASE NAME EMS_TAX ENE_TAX RATE

BL T0 T0 5%

CM1C T0 T0 5%

CM2C T200 T30 20%

CM3C T200 T30 33%

Emissions Energy Demand

Energy Share

More Human energy is used due to heavy emission tax

Emissions are reduced

Sector wise Energy Demand and Emission

ENERGY

EMISSION

Rural Urban

Assess the change in amount of trip generated due to change in land use

Total emission in transport sector in•Business as usual•Counter Measure -2030 1. With change in technology

Total emission in transport sector in•Business as usual without change in land use distribution•Counter Measure -2030

1. Change in Land use leading to trip reduction

Develop low carbon scenario for Bhopal in transport sector

Use of AFLOU/LULUCF model to develop land use change scenarios

Develop Transport Passenger Demand model

Total emission reduction using

both

Thank You

Dr. Kshama PuntambekarFaculty, Department of Planning School of Planning and Architecture, BhopalEmail: kshama@spabhopal.ac.in

Shivika MittalDoctoral ScholarIndian Institute of Management, AhmedabadEmail: shivikam@iimahd@irnet.in