1. Global climate change2. Sustainable development approach to national and international policy3. Implications for the energy sector in the UK4. The significance of air travel

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS

Professor Roland CliftCentre for Environmental Strategy

University of Surrey

Ecology and (Macro-)Thermodynamics

Technology and(Micro-) Economics[Including "micro-"thermodynamics]

Social Expectations[Including macro-

economics]

Enviro-centricConcerns

Techno-centricConcerns

Socio-centricConcerns

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Infra-red (I.R.)

GREENHOUSEEFFECT

Ultra-violet (U.V.) STRATOSPHERICOZONE

DEPLETION

EARTH

RADIATION FROM SUN

Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere:

Pre-industrial period: 270-280 ppmv(but during glacial periods itwas much lower, down to 180 ppmw)

Present value: 370 ppmv and rising fast...

ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE

CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

can be caused by change in absorptive properties of the atmosphere

effect is a global temperature risewhich leads to more localised effects

climate system is non-linear and dynamic, with positive feedbacks; therefore it is unpredictable.

CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES

Includes Retreat of glaciers? Increased frequency of “El Niño” events? Average temperatures Increased variability of climate

E.g. floods in Europe one summer;extraordinarily high temperatures the next(with many thousands of early deaths).

Unusually high hurricane activity, in both Atlantic and Pacific

Etc., etc.

EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Predicted to include: Rise in sea level Hence widespread flooding and displacement of

people Cooling in some places, especially if ocean

circulation is affected Displacement of climate zones faster than

ecosystems can adapt: loss of habitat and hence extinctions

Increased desertification and water stress Etc., etc

THE “BASKET OF GASES” Greenhouse Warming Potential

20 years 100 years 500 years

Carbon dioxide 1 1 1 Methane 62 23 7 Nitrous oxide 275 296 156 HFCs: e.g. Tetra fluorothane 3300 1300 400 (R134a) Pentafluoroethane 5900 3400 1100 (R125) Trifluoromethane 9400 12000 10000 PFCs: e.g. Perfluoromethane 3900 5700 8900 Perfluoroethane 8000 11900 18000 Sulphur hexafluoride 15100 22200 32400

Typical uncertainty: +35%

Greenhouse gas

1997 emissions (‘000 tonnes)

Global warming Potential, relative To CO2

GWP equivalent - ‘000 t. CO2

CO2 567,719 1 567,700 CH4 2,727 23 62,700 N2O 192 296 56,800 HFCs1 3.07 12 – 12,000 19,000 PFCs2 0.095 5,700 – 11,900 1,000 SF6 0.053 22,200 1,180 1 Hydrofluorocarbon compounds. Average GWP equivalent shown. 2 Perfluorocarbon compounds. Average GWP equivalent shown.

UK EMISSIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING GASES (1997)

ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION 22ND REPORT:

“ENERGY - THE CHANGING CLIMATE” (2000)

“…the world is now faced with a radical challenge of a totally new kind which requires an urgent response…

By the time the effects of human activities on the global climate are clear and unambiguous it wouldbe too late to take preventive measures.”

Recommended ensuring that concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not exceed 550 ppmv, twice the pre-industrial level.

“… an effective, enduring and equitable climate protocol will eventually require emission quotasto be allocated to nations on a simple and equalper capita basis… nations’ emission quotas(should) follow a contraction and convergencetrajectory.”

“…UK carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced by almost 60% from their current level by mid-century.”

A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT APPROACH:

PER-CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS, 1996(Tonnes)

United States 20 Canada 14 Russia 11 Germany 10 United Kingdom 9 Japan 9 Mexico 4 India 1 World 4 Developed Countries 13 Developing Countries 2

“Contract & Converge” 3.6

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Three “legs” to the argument, corresponding tothe three components of sustainable development:

1. Enviro-centric: limit on carbon dioxideconcentration in the atmosphere;

2. Socio-centric: the “contract and converge”principle;

3. Techno-centric: the target is technologicallyand economically feasible.

Ecology and (Macro-)Thermodynamics

Technology and(Micro-) Economics[Including "micro-"thermodynamics]

Social Expectations[Including macro-

economics]

Enviro-centricConcerns

Techno-centricConcerns

Socio-centricConcerns

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Demand-side reductions:e.g. improved building performance;modal shifts in transport;lesser improvements in manufacturing.

- Would be encouraged by carbon levy… Supply-side changes:

- renewable energy sources;- electrical storage; grid stability;- carbon dioxide sequestration;- nuclear or fossil electrical generation;- different transport fuels and drives.

Estimated cost of 60% reduction in UK = 2% of GDP

IS THE 60% REDUCTION FEASIBLE?

UK CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM BURNING FOSSIL FUELS AMOUNTED TO 22 TONNES PER

HOUSEHOLD IN 1998

6.1

5.8

5.7

3.3

0.9 0.2

Transport

Domestic

Industry

Commerce

Other

Agriculture

FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR, 2001

26%

31%

25%

18%Transport

Domestic

Industry

Services (includingagriculture)

Source: DUKES – Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DTI)

EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY CONVERSIONAlthough the first law of thermodynamics states that energy can be neither crated nor destroyed, different forms of energy are not simply interchangeable. Converting heat to work involves using some form of heat engine in which heat is supplied at a high temperature (T1) and leaves at a low temperature (T2). In the case of a steam cycle, T1

corresponds to the steam temperature entering the turbine and T2 to that of the water formed from steam in the condenser. The maximum fraction of the heat entering the heat engine that can be converted to work (i.e. electrical energy in this case) is

ηmax = 1 – (T2/ T1) = (T1– T2)/T1

Thus ηmax increases if T1 is increased. Real generating plants have conversion efficiency substantially below this thermodynamic limit.The fraction of the heat not converted to work (of electricity) leaves the engine as low-grade heat.

COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (CHP) PLANT, USING STEAM CYCLE FOR CO-GENERATION

Need to look at energy use in total, not just electricity. Biomass, agricultural waste, etc. need to be used to fire CHP plants primarily for heat output, with electrical output used to “back up” intermittent renewable sources. Needs a fundamental review of how electricity networks can best be financed, managed and regulated to stimulate and accommodate large contributions to energy supplies from CHP and renewable sources.

TECHNICAL ISSUES

CONCLUSION

For the UK, 60% reduction in CO2

emissions by 2050 is possible.The technology is (or soon will be) available.

But is the political will available…?

A FURTHER RCEP REPORT:

THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF CIVIL AIRCRAFT IN FLIGHT

November 2002

RCEP CONCLUSIONS 1

The analysis in the 1999 IPCC Report is sound.

Research since then has, if anything, revealed even greater uncertainty.

Total contribution of aircraft to radiative forcing is 2 to 4 times that of carbon dioxide emissions alone.

Best estimate of the multiplier is about 3.

RCEP CONCLUSIONS 2

Even the industry’s own most optimistic targets for technological advance will not

offset projected growth.

Short-haul flights (less than about 2000 km; i.e. 1000 nautical miles) are disproportionately damaging.

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Annual growth of 4.25%

annual improvement of 0.5%

Effect of introduction of aircraft meeting ACARE targets

EFFECT OF STAGE LENGTH ON SPECIFIC ENERGY USAGE

(Babikian, Lukachko & Waitz, J.Air Transport Management, Nov.2002)

SOME BROAD COMPARISONS

In terms of contribution to radiative forcing:

Long-distance air travel is equivalent to 1-2 people travelling in a passenger car.

Per passenger-km, modern high-speed rail travel is at least an order of magnitude less damaging.

Per tonne-km, rail freight is one to two orders of magnitude less damaging that air freight.

Marine freight is a factor of 2 or more less damaging than rail freight.

AIR TRANSPORT IN CONTEXT 1

Contribution to global climate change of passenger flights within, to and from the UK:

% OF UKYEAR MILLIONTONNESCO2

EMISSIONS RADIATIVEFORCING*

2000 30 5 122020+ 55 10-12 23-26

* Based on “multiplier” of 2.7 for aircraft emissions+ Assuming “low” growth and significant technologicaladvance, with 8 to 14% reduction in other sources.SOURCE: “Aviation and the Environment: using economic instruments”, HM Treasury and department for Transport, March 2003.

AIR TRANSPORT AND ENERGY POLICY

Following the recommendations of the Royal Commission, the 2003 White Paper has confirmed the policy of achieving 60% reduction in UK carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

The projected growth in air travel would represent more than half the remaining 40%.

…??

RCEP CONCLUSIONS 3

Airport capacity should not be expanded unless/until the contribution to climate change is brought into an effective policy. Technological advances alone will not offset projected growth. Some form of demand management will be needed.

1. Executive summary2. Profile of the Company

- Strengths and Weaknesses- Size and structure of company- Business areas- Principal competitors- Company’s position in the sector(s) where it operates- Environmental performance and reporting

The report should contain the following components:

3. Business Environment – Opportunities and Threats

Legislative environment and likely changes

Impact of extended producer responsibility

Product liability Sustainability of supply chain Stakeholder perceptions and social

“licence to operate”.

The report should contain the following components:

4. Strategic Positioning Recommendations on:

Product development and discontinuation

Stakeholder engagement Sustainability reporting Etc….

The report should contain the following components: