sustainable energy mix for the future example germany · 2015-03-04 · sustainable energy mix for...

© Fraunhofer ISE

Sustainable Energy Mix for the Future – Example Germany

Prof. Dr. Hans-Martin Henning

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Freiburg and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology KIT

REvis ion 2015

Tokyo, March 4, 2015

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

© Fraunhofer ISE

Outline

Germany‘s long-term climate policy targets

Composition of a target system

Phases of the transformation of the energy system

Cost analysis

Conclusions and outlook

© Fraunhofer ISE

Germany‘s greenhouse gas emissions – history and targets

Long term targets

Germany‘s energy-related CO2 emissions (2011): 20 % of Europe 2.5 % of world

Kyoto protocol reference value

others

energy related CO2 emiss ions

© Fraunhofer ISE

Germany‘s energy-related CO2 emissions (2008) Distribution among sectors (Mio tons)

so

urc

e: "P

olit

iksze

na

rie

n fü

r d

en

Klim

a-s

ch

utz

VI -

Tre

ibh

au

sg

as-E

mis

sio

ns-

sze

na

rie

n b

is z

um

Ja

hr

20

30

„. Ö

ko

-In

stitu

t e

t a

l. im

Au

ftra

g d

es U

mw

elt-

bu

nd

esa

mte

s (

UB

A),

Mä

rz 2

01

3

45 %

22 %

20 %

© Fraunhofer ISE

Energy flow chart of today (Germany, 2012)

Source: Ulrich Wagner, DLR. Technology Review Innovation Congress, Essen/Germany, February 2015

Primary energy 100 %

End energy 65,4 %

Useful energy 34,1 %

© Fraunhofer ISE

Means to achieve long term targets

Increase efficiency of convers ion from primary to end energy

Increase efficiency on end-use side

Replace fossil (and nuclear) energy by use of renewable energies

Important boundary conditions

No nuclear energy (fade out in 2022)

No carbon capture and sequestration/storage

© Fraunhofer ISE

Specific long term goals of the German government (2050)

Overall

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 80 % to 95 % (compared to

1990)

Cutting the total primary energy demand by 50 % (compared to 2008)

Renewable energy fraction of 60 % of gros final energy demand

Electricity

Reduction of consumption by 25 % (compared to 2008)

Renewable energy fraction of 80 % in electricity production

Building sector

Almost carbon neutral building sector

Reduction of primary energy by 80 %

© Fraunhofer ISE

Outline




Cost analysis


© Fraunhofer ISE

Optimization of Germany’s future energy system

REMod-D

Renewable Energy Model – Deutschland

Techno-economic optimization based on comprehensive simulation (hourly time scale)

Electricity generation, storage and end-use

Fuels (including biomass and synthetic

fuels from RE)

Mobility (battery-electric,

hydrogen, conv. fuel mix)

Processes in industry and

tertiary sector

Heat (buildings,

incl. storage and heating networks)

Mimimize total annual cost (operation,

maintenance, …)

© Fraunhofer ISE

Renewables

Fossil

Renewables

Fossil

Renewables

Fossil

Renewables

Fossil

GW

CHP

HP

Renewables

Fossil

Electricity

Import

Electricity Renewables Surplus

Export Fossil

Hydrogen Raw biomass

Heat Liquid fuels

Gas Electricity

Hard coal PP

Nuclear PP

Reforming

Battery stor.

Pumped stor.

H2-2-Fuel

GT

CCGT

District heat

Oil PP

Lignite PP

Processing

Bio-2-el.

H2-storage

Electrolysis

Methanation

TWh

GW

0

108

TWh

TWh

GW

GW

Solar thermal

PV

Hydro power

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Raw biomass

0

0 0

103

Biogas

storage

0

TWh 36 TWh

18

1

85

Bio-2-Liquid 9

1 TWh

TWh

TWh

Hard coal

Lignite

Petroleum

TWh

144

TWh

0 0

Natural gas

37 13

7 TWh

68 27

TWh 3 TWh

485 0 0

39

10

CO2 emissions 1990 (reference year) 990 Mio t CO2

CO2 emissions 196 Mio t CO2

CO2 reduktion related to 1990:

TWh

TWh 0 TWh

TWh

Uranium0 0

10

Primary fossil

energy carrier

445

384

Industry (fuel based

process)

Electricity (baseload)

80%

TWh

TWh TWh TWh GW

GW 215

237 Final energy

237 TWh

TWh 0

0 Conversion

0 Losses

375

Bio-2-CH4 0

0 TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

103

77%

15 TWhTWh

0 Losses

502 Final energy

630 TWhGW

GW

125

128 TWh

120 TWh

6 5

19 Battery veh.

TWh 0 TWhTWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

GWh

GWh

0 0

GWh

21

Consumption

sector

121

TWh

3

TWh

Deep

geothermal

Environ-

mental heat

Renewable

energy sources

Renewable raw

materials

Water

Sun

Bio-2-H2

0

176

32 TWh

0

Wind

335

TWh

Biodiesel

5 TWh

Energy conversion Storage

10

375

383

52

49

TWh

TWh

0

0

501 Final energy

860 TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

GW

GW

GW

100%

GW

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

11

106

20

98

0

Heating (space

heating and hot

water)

237

20

Total quantity gas

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

GW

GW

66

TWh

TWh 17 TWh

TWh

0

0

50

126

Final energy

0%

11

GW

GW

GW

GW

GW

GW

20

15

GW0

TWh

TWh

419

21

135

85

TWh5

0

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

23%

108

100%

Conversion

Losses

0

0

29%

128 Conversion

Total quantity

hydrogen

108 TWh

0%

Total quantity raw

biomass

244

TWh

TWh

GW

GW

Biogas plant

2

58

77

55

103 0

103

0

91

141

TWh0

TWh0

0

0

19

Total quantity

heating

0 Conversion

17 Losses

264 Final energy

280 TWh Mobility

108

71%

Conversion

0 Losses

72 Final energy

335 TWh

46

TWh

87%

13%

Total quantity

electricity

39%

61%

Total quantity liquid

fuels

271 Conversion

88 Losses

© Fraunhofer ISE

REMod-D Energy system model

© Fraunhofer ISE

Optimized system – Electricity

Photovoltaics 147 GWel

Medium and large size CHP (connected to district heating)

60 GWel

Onshore Wind

120 GWel

Offshore Wind 32 GWel

CH

P =

com

bin

ed

he

at &

po

we

r

© Fraunhofer ISE

Heat

Solar thermal 42 GWth

Heat pumps 22 GWth (el., ground) 19 GWth (el., air) 15 GWth (gas)

Solar thermal 40 GWth

CHP in heat networks 60 GWel installed

capacity 15 GWth centralized

heat pumps

CH

P =

com

bin

ed

he

at &

po

we

r

© Fraunhofer ISE

Heat buffers in buildings Total 320 GWh (e.g. 7 Mio units with 800 Litres each)

Large scale heat storage in district heating systems Total 350 GWh (e.g. 150 units with 50.000 m³ each)

Pumped storage power plants 42 units with a total of 60 GWh

Stationary batteries Total 24 GWh (e.g. 8 Mio units with 3 kWh each)

Electrolysers with total capacity of 33 GWel (needed for mobility)

Storage

© Fraunhofer ISE

Today‘s system vs. optimized system in 2050

M&O, invest, taxes, fees, profits

M&O, invest

Taxes, fees, profits

1)

*Assumed doubling of fossil fuel prices by 2050

-50% -81%

primary energy (TWh) CO2 emissions (Mt) total costs (billion € p.a.)

© Fraunhofer ISE

Outline




Cost analysis


© Fraunhofer ISE

Phases of the energy system transformation

© Fraunhofer ISE

Transition steps

© Fraunhofer ISE

Projection of RE development

development until today

approx. 4 x value of today

approx. 3.5 x value of today

For all technologies far below technical potential

© Fraunhofer ISE

Outline




Cost analys is


© Fraunhofer ISE

Investments for RE (wind, solar) and stationary batteries bn € p.a. (incl. repowering)

Total investments (w/o capital cost, incl. re-powering) from 2015 to 2050: 515 bln €2014

© Fraunhofer ISE

Investments vs. saved fuel cost in bn € p.a.

Annual increase of world market price for fossil fuels

0 %

© Fraunhofer ISE


Fuel price increase 2 % cumulatively avoided fuel cost 1072 bn €

0 % 679 bn €

1 % 851 bn €

cumulative investments 515 bn €

© Fraunhofer ISE


Important to notice

Yet only investments for major RE sources (wind, solar) and stationary batteries considered

In addition more investments will be necessary for grid expansion, other storage technologies, CHP plants, system integration, efficient end-use technologies etc.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Transformation of the energy system

Qualitative trend of total annual cost

cost per year

today mid century

time [years]

w/o transformation

© Fraunhofer ISE


Reduction of energy-related CO2 emissions by 80 % and above possible

Lower cost on long term (once major transformation completed)

Significantly reduced dependence on imports of energy resources

Flucutuaing renewable energies (wind, solar PV) become backbone of electricity generation and dominate the overall system

Flexibilization of residual electricity production and electricity use in all end-use sectors (mobility, heating)

Intersectorial integration important: electricity, heat, transportation, industry processes

Significant local value and employment creation

Results can be transferred to other industrialized regions or countries

Ongoing further model development: optimization of transformation pathway (minimizing overall transformation cost)

© Fraunhofer ISE

Thank you for your attention…

Hans-Martin Henning www.ise.fraunhofer.de [email protected]

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

sustainable energy mix for the future example germany · 2015-03-04 · sustainable energy mix for...

Documents