Sustainable development:

smart actions and smart tools

for policy areas

Janos Zlinszky

Peter Pazmany Catholic University

2013 XII. 02.

TIPPING POINTS IN

SOCIETY

Well over 1 billion people drink infested or contaminated water

Plea, or last warning?

• “We risk the entrenchment of these global disparities and unless we act in a manner that fundamentally changes their lives, the poor of the world may lose confidence in their representatives and the democratic systems to which we remain committed, seeing their representatives as nothing more than sounding brass or tinkling cymbals.”

• Political Declaration, WSSD, Johannesburg, 11 –15.

• “If I have all the eloquence of men or angels, but speak without love, I am nothing more than sounding brass or tinkling cymbals.” St Paul to the Corinthians I. 13 1.

21 Issues for the 21st Century

• Align governance to the challenges of global

sustainability

• Transform human capabilities for the 21st

century

• Ensure food safety and food security

• Reconnect science and policy

• Catalyse rapid and transformative changes in

human behaviour towards the environment

(UNEP Foresight Process, 2012)

1. Align governance

to the challenges

of global sustainability

„SUSTAINABILITY AND

WELLBEING

ARE LINKED”

Sustainable development = the good life

A high level of human wellbeing (because no one wants to sustain a low standard of living).

Plus

People

Ecosystem

A high level of ecosystem

wellbeing (because the

ecosystem supports life and

makes possible any standard of

living).

A high level of human wellbeing means

1. Long lives in good health, and a stable

population.

5

dimensions

of human

wellbeing

2. The wealth to secure basic needs and

decent livelihoods, promote enterprise, and

maintain prosperity.

3. The knowledge to live well and sustainably,

and a culture that links past and present,

individuals and society, and spirit and nature.

4. A community that upholds the rights of its

members, has an open and clean government,

and is safe from violence and crime.

5. Benefits and burdens shared equally by males

and females and equitably among societal

groups.

A high level of ecosystem wellbeing means

1. Conserving the diversity of natural

land ecosystems and the quality of

developed land.

2. Conserving the diversity and quality of

marine and inland water ecosystems.

3. Restoring the chemical balance of the

global atmosphere and the quality of

local air.

4. Maintaining all native wild species and

the genes in domesticated species.

5. Keeping resource use within the

carrying capacity of the ecosystem.

5 dimensions

of ecosystem

wellbeing

Different level of human wellbeing, similar

burdens on the ecosystem

0

20

Bad

20

Bad

40

Poor

40

Poor

60

Medium

ECOSYSTEM WELLBEING

60

Medium

80

Fair

80

Fair

100

Good

100

Good

HUMAN

WELLBEING

Macedonia FYR46

42

Albania38

46Yugoslavia 42

37

Croatia57

33

Bosnia & 24

45Herzegovina#24

45

Slovenia72

35

Portugal

72

31France 75

29

Similar human wellbeing at different costs

to the ecosystem

0

20

Bad

20

Bad

40

Poor

40

Poor

60

Medium

ECOSYSTEM WELLBEING

60

Medium

80

Fair

80

Fair

100

Good

100

Good

HUMAN

WELLBEING

Lux.

77

24Belgium 80

23

Ireland

76

32

Germany

77

36

Finland

81

44

Austria

80

42

Sweden79

49

How close to global

sustainability are we today?

Smart action:

Clear communication

about key issues!

Smart tool:

Establish and use

very good indicators!

UNCERTAINTIES

PRECAUTION

Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Year

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ice A

rea (

Sept. m

inim

um

), m

illio

ns o

f km

2

Model ra

nge 2009?

Ajka/Kolontar, Hungary,

2010 october 4 (day of StFrancis Assisi)

Smart action:

implement the precautionary

principle!

Smart tools:

Legislate!

2. Transform

human capabilities

for the 21st century

Among the Concepts We

Need to Understand • Nonlinearities, delays, errors in perception,

irreversibilities

• Feedback loops, positive & negative

• Demographic transition, sustainable yields, regeneration,

depletion, diminishing returns to investment

• Dynamics of markets and technological advance

• Loop dominance, shifting dominance - behaviour comes

from structure, not from individuals

• Teamwork, values, trust, negotiating, responsibility

• Short-term versus long-term time horizons

(Dennis Meadows)

EDUCATION,

CAPACITY BUILDING,

TRAINING

Time horizon

Balancing sticks

Easy Problems

Now Future

Bet

ter

----

--->

Next Evaluation

Action #1

Actual Desired

Action #2

Difficult Problems

Now Future

Bet

ter

----

--->

Next Evaluation

Action #1

Action #2

Actual Desired

Smart action:

institutionalise long-term thinking

Smart tool:

Establish an independent

representation for future

generations

3. Ensure food safety and food

security

Ecological services

Timber and fuelwood generally

accounted for less than a third

of total economic value of

forests in eight Mediterranean

countries.

Demand on natural capital

(Sources AND sinks!)

The Ecological Footprint

CARBON footprint

Natural capital

1900 2100 2002 2050

If we go on with current production and consumption patterns,

Two planets needed by 2050

Based on "Beyond the Limits", D.H. Meadows, D. L. Meadows, and J. Randers 1992; Chelsea Green Publishing, White River Junction VT.

Környezetünk állapota

NASA felvétele

Space

Smart actions:

internalise externalities

Smart tools:

Natural capital accounting,

Payments for ecological services

Paying ecological debts

4. Reconnect science and

policy

Non-negotiables

Framework conditions

Increase of CO2 in air

sinks marine pH

Plankton

Coral reefs!

Oceans are getting acidic

Planetary boundaries

Climate 350 ppm CO2

+1 W/m2

Biogeochemical

loading 35 MT N/yr

11 MT P/yr

Biodiversity

loss 10 E/MSY

Agricultural

land use 15% Chemical

pollution TBD

Freshwater use 4000 km3/yr

Ocean

acidification Aragonite saturation

ratio > 2.75

Atmospheric

aerosol

loading TBD

Ozone depletion 276 DU

Planetary boundaries

Rockström, J. et al., 2009. Nature, in press.

THE REMAINING PIECE OF THE CAKE

Jahr

Glo

bale

fossile

CO

2-E

mis

sio

nen (

Gt/

Jahr)

2/3 probability to stay below 2 ºC

Fossil CO2 budget 2010-2050: 750 Gt (Meinshausen et al. 2009)

Peak 2011

-80% in

2050

Peak 2020

Sources:

European Wind Atlas, www.windatlas.dk

IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.html

EEA - How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the Environment

100% Renewable Europe

Smart actions:

fence off

edges and boundaries

Smart tools:

legislate,

monitor,

enforce!

NONLINEARITIES,

TIPPING POINTS

Acidification by CO2 from air

threatens

marine ecosystems

„Pause” is reversible,

”off” is irreversible Plankton

Coral reefs!

Oceans are getting acidic

Tipping points

J. Schellnhuber, in Steffen, et al., Challenges of a Changing Earth, 2002

Ramanathan & Feng, 2008: PNAS, 105 (38), 14,245-14,250.

SYSTEMS, MODELS,

SIMULATIONS

PREDICTION, PROGNOSYS,

FORECAST, WARNING,

SCENARIO?

World3: Reference Scenario

1900-2000

Resources

Population

Persistent

Pollution

Industrial Output

Food

World3 Reference Scenario

1900-2100

Resources

Population

Pollution

Industrial Output

Food

Smart action:

think in systems, plan in alternatives,

Smart tools:

build scenarios,

create models,

experiment with simulations

5.Catalyse

rapid and transformative

changes in human behaviour

towards the environment

„Radical” change: the roots

“The problem is not simply economic and

technological; it is moral and spiritual. A

solution at the economic and

technological level can be found only if

we undergo, in the most radical way, an

inner change of heart, which can lead to

a change in lifestyle and of

unsustainable patterns of consumption

and production.”

The Venice Declaration on Environmental Ethics, June 2002

The real needs

People don't need enormous cars; they need respect. They don't

need closets full of clothes; they need to feel attractive and they

need excitement and variety and beauty. People don't need

electronic entertainment; they need something worthwhile to do

with their lives. People need identity, community, challenge,

acknowledgment, love, joy.

To try to fill these needs with material things is to set up an unquenchable

appetite for false solutions to real and never-satisfied problems. The resulting

psychological emptiness is one of the major forces behind the desire for

material growth. A society that can admit and articulate its nonmaterial needs

and find nonmaterial ways to satisfy them would require much lower material

and energy throughputs and would provide much higher levels of human

fulfillment.

D.H. Meadows, D.L. Meadows and J. Randers, 1992, Beyond the Limits, Chapter 8 “Overshoot but Not Collapse” pp223-224.

ENDS AND MEANS

(CF. SYSTEMS HIERARCHY!)

“The fundamental goal or purpose of a good economy is

to steadily improve the wellbeing of all people,

now and in the future, with due regard to equity,

within the constraints of nature, through the active engagement of all its

participants.”

Consensus definition of the 300 participating business leaders of

the 16 conferences of the Sustainable Economy Dialogue, Cambrige University Programme for Industry, 2003-6

VALUES:

SUSTAINABLE BEHAVIOUR

is

THE RIGHT THING TO DO

and

BRINGS HAPPINESS

SUSTAINABILITY E.g.: Beyond the limits, 1992

Truth-telling

Visioning

Networking

Learning

Loving

INTEGRITY E.g.: Charity in truth

2009

Embrace the truth

Justice, solidarity

Community and

co-operation

Intelligence

Charity

SUSTAINABILITY E.g.: Beyond the limits, 1992

Truth-telling

Visioning

Networking

Learning

Loving

INTEGRITY E.g.: Charity in truth

2009

Embrace the truth

Justice, solidarity

Community and

co-operation

Intelligence

Charity

SUSTAINABILITY E.g.: Beyond the limits,

1992

Truth-telling

Visioning

Networking

Learning

Loving

HAPPINESS E.g.: Five ways to wellbeing, 2008

Take notice

Be active

Connect

Learn

Give

INTEGRITY E.g.: Charity in truth

2009

Embrace the truth

Justice, solidarity

Community and

co-operation

Intelligence

Charity

Smart action:

acknowledge values

and stick to them!

Smart tools:

“caritas in veritate!”

Enable adequate behaviour with rules, institutions and infrastructure!