sustainability of tourism development - politecnico di...

Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008

Sustainability of tourism developmentA theoretical approach to tourism sustainability

Renato Casagrandi and Sergio Rinaldi (2002) Conservation Ecology 6(1): 13

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol6/iss1/art13/

• What is sustainability? A problematic definition

• Prototypical trajectories in tourism development

• A minimal model (its spirit and the assumed functional forms)

• Profitable, compatible and sustainable policies

• Key results and further developments

Outline


Sustainability...“The notion of sustainability is a vague and elusive one” (Ludwig, 1993)

The environmental viewpoint

Environmental quality preserved through time

Production yield (for applied biologists) o conservation of abundance and diversity in communities (for ecologists)

How can sustainability be defined?

The economic viewpoint

Economic development sustained through time

(development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability offuture generations to meet their own needs)


...of tourist development at the GLOBAL SCALESource: World Tourist Organization

http://www.unwto.org/

Growth rate

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Wor

ld

Afric

aAm

erica

sEa

st A

sia

Euro

peM

iddl

e Ea

stSo

uth

Asiaperc

enta

ge (%

)

00/9901/00

From the 25 milions of tourist worldwide in 1950...

International Tourist Arrivals 1950-2005

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1950

1965

1975

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Mill

ions

of t

ouris

ts

Middle-EastAfricaAsia and the PacificAmericasEurope


after Butler (1980)

...of tourist development at the LOCAL SCALE

?t → ∞


Case studies: Brighton (U.K.)

Britain Agarwal 1997Indonesia Dahles and Bras 1999

Peru O'Hare and Barrett 1997 Swaziland Harrison 1995

Cyprus Akis et al. 1996 Melanesia Douglas 1997

Many other examples...


Scientific literature and tourismFrom abstract discussions…“Sustainable tourism is the one that is capable of persisting through time, i.e. capable of responding to expectations of the residents and the tourists without diminishing the resource stock nor the quali-quantitative level of touristic experience

Schmidt et al. (1996)

… to detailed models (simulation and or optimization) van der Borg e Russo (1997)

Max Y = 221 TA + 85.4 TE + 53 ES...PAM = ... < 70.000VSM = ... < 15.000

Y = carrying capacity of tourists in VeneziaTA = Hotel tourists; TE = Extra-hotel tourists; ES = ExcursionistsPAM = Seats at restaurant at launch time VSM = Visitors that can simultaneously visit the Basilica di S. Marco


A minimal model

......

...

TE

C

=

= =

Possible outcomes

parameters(investement, prices, competition, ...)

Bifurcation analysis

1

4

32

p2

p1

C

E

T

A 1 BINASCOE

T

A 1

TIROLOE

T

A 1

MONTECARLO

C C

Binasco Tyrol Monte Carlo

E

TA 1

A 2

C


Hypotheses:

• The investments are a fixed proportion of total revenues

• The revenues are proportional to the number of tourists

The Capital

( ), ,C I T E C C= − δwhere

( ), ,I T E C T= ε

( ), ,I T E C Investment flow

Cδ Depreciation flow

Choosing a functional form for I

Investment rate


The Environment

( ) ( )1 , ,EE rE D T E CK= − −where

( ), ,D T E C Flow of environmental damages caused by the presence of tourists and capital

Our choice: a bilinear form

( ) ( ), ,D T E C E C T= β + γ


The tourists

( )ˆ , ,T T a T E C a = ⋅ − dove a = expected attractiveness of a generic site

that increases with local prices and decreases with price of alternative sites

( )ˆ , ,a T E C = absolute attractiveness (perceived) of the site, it is the sum of 3 contributes

αT−(Rimini = +αT )( )

( )1

1CC

C TC T

+µ

+ + ϕ(C = consumption good )

EE

EE

µ+ ϕ

E

µE


The model

( ) ( ) ( )( )

( )( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )

1

E CE C C

E t C tT t T t T t a

E t C t T t

E tE t E t rE t C t T t

K

C C t T t

= µ + µ − α −

+ ϕ + ϕ + ϕ

= − −β − γ

= −δ + ε Key parameters?

POLICY PARAMETERS(dependent on agents)

Examples:• β = environmental impact• ε = investment

SYSTEM PARAMETERS(independent of agents)

Esempi:• µ, ϕ = tourists’ culture• a = competition


Can the model mimic Butler’s trajectories

low ε

medium ε

high ε

low ε medium ε high ε


How can policiesbe catalogued?

Judgment

Structuralproperty ofattractors


The ECONOMIC viewpoint

( ) if

such that 0

UNPROFI

PROFI

TABLEotherwi

L

s

TAB E

e

iA T t∃ >

Definition:

A policy is

Nota bene:This definition does not reduce to

the concept of sustainabledevelopment commonly

used in economics


PROFITABLE policies

( ) if

such tR

hat 0

SAFEotherwis

ISKY

e

jA T t∃ =

Further subdivision:

A profitable policy is said


The ENVIRONMENTAL viewpoint

( ) if

such that 0

NOT COMPATIBLEoth

C

e

OMPATI

rwise

BLE

iA E t∃ >

Definition:

A policy is said


COMPATIBLE policies

( ) if

such tR

hat 0

SAFEotherwis

ISKY

e

kA E t∃ =

Further subdivision:

A policy is said


SUSTAINABLEPolicies

( ) ( ) if

such that , 0

UNSUSTAINABLEotherwis

SUSTAINABLE

e

iA T t E t∃ >

Def: A policy is said

( )

( )

( ) ( )

at if such that 0

at if such that 0

S

ECONOMIC RISK

if such that ,

AF

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

0E

j

k

i

A T t

A E

Ai

t

T t E t

∃ =∃ = >∀

Nota: SUSTANABLE PROFITABLE and COMPATIBLE,but not viceversa!


Sustainability diagram


Further directions

• Other investment policies

Conclusions

( ) ( ), ,I T I T E C→• Model extensions

( )( )

1 2

1 2

,

,

T T T

C C C

→

→

• Sustainability can be defined in a rough but formal way(see also Casagrandi and Rinaldi 2005)

• In the case of tourism, it is very difficult to followsustainable paths with slowly changing policies

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