Survey of Aviation Weather ProductsRequested by NWS

Progress Report by Tom Schlatter30 November 2010

Project began in Sep 2010; full draft report due March 2011

DIA – Wed 26 May 2010 – photo by Roberto Frias, Steamboat Springs,CO

Survey purpose: Provide fundamental basis for future development of Aviation Impact Variable products

Survey focus: Aviation Impact Variables (observed and predicted)•Convection•Icing•Turbulence•Ceiling and Visibility•and (by implication) Terminal Weather

Limitations of survey:•Products generated by U.S. organizations•Products either operational or undergoing prototype testing

Product Information•Who developed it?•What is its purpose?•How does it work? (scientific basis)•What kinds of information required for input?•What does a sample of the product look like?•Who generates the product?• What resources are needed to generate the product?• Is the product stand-alone or part of a larger system?• Is the product operational? Real time? Prototype?• Who uses the product?• Where is the product available?• Have the accuracy and utility of the product been assessed?• Any plans for upgrades?• Anything else I should know about the product?

Information Gathering Phase: Progress

•Surfing the Web– ADDS– Experimental ADDS– Aviation Weather Center

•One-on-one interviews– Bob Sharman, NCAR, turbulence– Roy Rasmussen, NCAR, WSDDM, ground de-icing– Marcia Politovich, NCAR, aircraft icing– Paul Herzegh, NCAR, low ceilings and visibilities– Jim Wilson, Rita Roberts, James Pinto, NCAR,

Autonowcaster– Dave Johnson, NCAR, lightning as it affects ground

operations– Judy Ghirardelli, MDL, LAMP– Marilyn Wolfson, MITLL, convection

Supporting documentation received from all of the above.

Information Gathering (continued)

• Other documentation received– from Bill Mahoney, NCAR, on LLWAS– from Tom Fahey, Delta Airlines, on “Turbulence Plot System

and Products,” generated by Delta and widely used

• Visit to Aviation Weather Center (AWC), 21-22 OctSpent several hours with Bruce Entwistle, reviewing proceduresSat with four forecasters on shift:– Nolan Duke, Tropical Desk (northern Gulf of Mexico, oil rigs)– Jim Roets at the FA East Desk (issues FAs, AIRMETs, and

SIGMETs, except for convection– Gregory Harris, Convective SIGMET desk (contiguous U.S.)– Don Baker, CCFP DeskGained good understanding of AWC products, how they areprepared, and who uses them. Forecasters provided written documentation.

Information Gathering (continued)

•Visited ARTCC in Longmont (ZDV), 18 Nov 2010 Spoke with Bill Bobb, MIC of the CWSU and Larry Larson, TMU

– how CWSUs interact with air traffic controllers, TrafficManagement Units, and the Control Tower

– how products generated by AWC and CWSUs are complementary

yet different– when and how CWSU products are derived and

disseminated,what information is consulted, and who are the main

customers

•Interviewed Stan Benjamin, Steve Weygandt, John Brown, ESRL, 17 Nov 2010 (Rapid Update Cycle, Rapid Refresh)

– the essential and pervasive role that mesoscale models play in the

generation of aviation weather products– priorities for improvement of numerical predictions

– use of ensemble predictions for assessing uncertainty

Information Gathering (continued)

Yet to do

•Interview Geoff DiMego about the role of EMC models (NAM, GFS) and ensemble prediction in generating aviation weather products

•Visit Alaska Aviation Weather Unit, the CWSU, and NWS regional headquarters in Anchorage to learn about the special needs of aviation there and products generated to address those needs.

Draft Outline of Survey ReportFive page outline exists; skeleton presented here

IntroductionA. Definition of “Aviation Weather Products”B. Survey commissioned by NWSC. PurposeD. Scope and limitations

Products Related to En Route Hazards

I. TurbulenceA. AIRMETSB. SIGMETSC. Turbulence reportsD. Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG)E. Automated turbulence reports from aircraftF. NEXRAD Turbulence Detection AlgorithmG. Turbulence Plot Message System (Delta Airlines)

Outline (continued)II. Icing

A. AIRMETS and G-AIRMETS for moderate icingB. SIGMETS – prompted by pilot report of severe icingC. Pilot reports of icingD. Current Icing Product (CIP)E. Forecast Icing Potential (FIP)F. Freezing level graphicsG. NCEP icing product from Short-Range Ensemble

ForecastsH. Future improvements

III. Low Ceiling and VisibilityA. AIRMETS and G-AIRMETS – issued for IFR of worse

conditionsB. SIGMETS – issued only in the case of dust or sand

stormsC. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFS), issued by

WFOsD. Plots of observationsE. Localized Aviation MOS (Model Output Statistics)

ProductF. National Ceiling and Visibility Product (NCV)G. Helicopter Emergency Weather Services (HEMS) Java

tool

Outline (continued)IV. Convection

A. Products on the ADDS websiteB. Localized Aviation MOS ProductC. Autonowcaster

Products Related to Hazards at AirportsA. Aircraft deicing prior to takeoffB. Lightning and airport operationsC. Low-level wind shear detection (microbursts)D. Continuous weather watch at scales of a few km by

CWSUs for anything that could affect acceptance rates.

Hybrid and Interactive Products (Java applications)A. Flight path toolB. NCWF Java toolC. METARS, TAFS, PIREPs Java tools (all observation-

based)D AIRMET / SIGMET Java toolE. Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA)F. HEMS (helicopters, low ceiling and visibility)

Outline (continued)The Special Case of AlaskaA. What sets it apart? Size, complex terrain, climate, volcanoes, GAB. Questions to ask1. What aviation weather problems are unique to Alaska?2. How do aviation weather products differ from those produced

in the lower 48 states?

Essential and Pervasive Role of Models in the Generation of Aviation Weather ProductsA. Models essential after persistence, extrapolation, and process

models failB. Three keys to product improvement: physics, aerosol and cloud

chemistry, finer spatial resolutionC Two major challenges: assimilation of hydrometeor data, initiation

convectionD. Post-processing of model output is basis for AIVs and many productsE. Operational models supporting aviationF. Ensemble prediction