supply and demand by main market area domestic …978-1-349-09686-2/1.pdf · titanium: ilmenite...

Supply and Demand by Main Market Area

Domestic production, trade and consumption in the United Kingdom, European Community, Japan and United States. Domestic production is divided into the main stages where relevant. The source of net imports (i.e. imports from third countries) are shown, and also dependence on external supplies. The data are mainly averages for 1985 and 1986. The geographical sources of net imports are given as percentages of the total separately for all four groupings. Shares of world consumption and the historic growth of consumption are also included. For most metals the main additional sources to those used for the earlier tables are the relevant trade statistics.

The geographical coverage of the European Community has changed frequently. In this Handbook it is the Europe of the Ten (i.e. the present Community excluding Spain and Portugal) which was the coverage for most of the statistics included. Greenland is no longer included in the Community, but its production (of lead and zinc) is now shown separately.

Acknowledgements

The compiler gratefully acknowledges indebtedness to the statistical publications of the US Bureau of Mines, The World Bureau of Metal Statistics, Metallgesellschaft, and the British Geological Survey in particular. Many other sources, listed at the end of the report, have also been used. The price data are derived mainly from the Metal Bulletin, Metals Week, Industrial Minerals and the Engineering and Mining Journal. Any mistaken interpretations, errors or omissions, are the compiler's sole responsibility. A considerable proportion of the data was put together by Julie Markey, without whom the book would never have been produced, and she deserves full credit for this. Thanks are also due to Nobushige Kondo and his staff in Tokyo.

n/a Not available c. approximately

Under 1

Independent rounding means that percentages may not add up to 100 throughout the publication.

4

TABLE 1

PRODUCTION AND RESERVES BY MAIN GEO-POLITICAL GROUPING

% Share in World Reserves Primary Production 1985-86

Developed Developing Centrally Deve 1 oped Deve 1 oping Centrally Planned Planned

Bauxite 26 70 4 45 43 12 Aluminium 63 16 21 Antimony 16 24 60 28 33 40 Arsenic (a) n/a n/a n/a 49 36 15 Asbestos 45 12 43 24 10 66 Barytes 26 42 32 32 35 33 Beryllium 14 70 16 65 13 22 Bismuth 65 27 8 46 44 10 Boron 65 9 26 92 3 5 Cadmium (a) 62 27 11 65 13 22 Chromium 80 6 13 47 17 36 Cobalt 4 64 32 14 69 17 Copper 29 60 11 32 45 23 Fluorspar 34 21 45 28 26 46 Gold 72 12 16 59 20 22 Industrial

Diamonds 58 33 9 33 51 16 Iron Ore 34 27 39 31 32 37 Lead 68 12 20 50 20 29 Lithium 33 {b) 67 {b) n/a 57 18 25 Magnesite 8 18 74 39 6 55 Manganese 47 16 37 27 34 39 Mercury 78 7 15 36 18 47 Molybdenum 57 26 17 59 26 15 Nickel 32 19 48 40 30 30 Niobium 3 81 16 15 {b) 85 {b) n/a Phosphate 29 57 14 34 37 29 Platinum

Group 81 19 51 49 Potash 55 1 44 47 6 47 Rare Earths 14 5 81 59 19 22 Rhenium 44 48 8 29 51 20 Selenium 34 57 10 n/a n/a n/a Silicon n/a n/a n/a 77 6 18 Silver 41 37 22 36 43 22 Sulphur 32 28 40 54 11 35 Tantalum 26 57 17 n/a n/a n/a Tellurium (a) 28 61 11 95 {b) 5 {b) n/a Tin 13 81 6 9 70 21

5

Titanium: Ilmenite Rutile

Tungsten Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium

% Share in World Reserves

Developed Developing Centrally Planned

65 17 18 16 81 3 35 9 56 25 1 74 n/a n/a n/a 60 26 14 69 16 15

(a) Production at refineries. (b) Western World only.

6

Primary Production 1985-86


77 14 9

23 17 60 56 44 95 (b) 5 (b) n/a 54 22 25 83 5 12

Bauxite Antimony Arsenic Asbestos Barytes Beryllium Bismuth Boron Cadmium Chromium Cobalt (land only) Copper (land only) Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gold

Indium Industrial Diamonds

Iron Ore Lead Lithium Magnesium

Manganese (land only) Mercury

Molybdenum Nickel (land only) Niobium Phosphate Platinum Group Potash Rare Earths Rhenium Selenium Silicon Silver

Sulphur Tantalum Tellurium Tin

TABLE 2

THE 'ADEQUACY' OF RESERVES

Static Reserve Life (years)

237 77 23 24 31

very large 21

330 29 99 99 40 57

very large large

25

22 22

132 28

very large very large

106 19

58 67

over 250 very large

125 over 300

very large 143

very large extremely large

18

24 over 100

large 17

7

Ratio of Identified Reserves to

Cumulative Primary Demand 1987-2000

13 3.9 2.5 1.2 1.5

very large 1.5

20 2

21 8.6 2.6 2.6

very large large

2.5 (excludes above ground stocks)

1 under 1

(excluding synthetics) 9 2.4

n/a 30

(excluding brines and sea) 8 1.3

(excludes secondary stocks) 2.9 3.5

12 5

10 19 60 35 3.7

extremely large 2.1

(excludes secondary stocks) 1.2 1.4 5 1

Titanium Tungsten Uranium Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium

Static Reserve Life (years)

87 63 64

135 87 25 49

8

Ratio of Identified Reserves to

Cumulative Primary Demand 1987-2000

5.9 3.5 3.2 8 6 1.6 3.5

TABLE 3

THE GROWTH OF WORLD RESERVES OF SELECTED PRODUCTS

This table shows how estimates of world reserves of four major base metals increased over a thirty year period relative to the rate of growth of world mine production. Figures for these metals are more readily available than for many others, but in most respects the pattern shown is typical; estimated reserves grew at least as fast as production until the 1980s.

(million tonnes contained metal near the end of the relevant decade)

Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium (a)

1940s 91 31 to 45 54 to 70 1,605 1950s 124 45 to 54 77 to 86 3,224 1960s 280 86 106 11,600 1970s 543 157 240 22,700 1980s First half (b) 500 135 300 22,335

% p.a. growth 1950s-1970s 7.5 5 to 5.75 4.75 to 5.25 9.75

% p.a. growth of mine production 1950s-1970s 3.75 1. 75 2.75 7

(a) gross weight of bauxite {b) reserve base in 1985

In the first half of the 1980s a decline in prices relative to costs led to reductions in reserves, as hitherto economic ore bodies became uneconomic.

9

TABLE 4

VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL PRODUCTION

mi 11 ion US $

Aluminium 24,300 Antimony 126 Arsenic 55 (as trioxide) Asbestos 1,575 Barytes 400 Beryllium 235 Bismuth 33 Boron 610 Cadmium 81 (refined metal) Chromium 460 Cobalt 380 (refined meta 1) Copper 17,300 (refined metal) Fluorspar 600 Gallium 21 Germanium 85 Gold 21,000 Indium 18 Industrial Diamonds 100 Iron Ore 17,000 Lead 3,300 (refined metal) Lithium 150 Magnesite 2,775 Magnesium metal 1,082 Manganese 1,100 (metal content) Mercury 63 Molybdenum 600 Nickel 3,700 (refined meta 1) Niobium 89 (Western world) Phosphate 5,400 Platinum Group 2,750 Potash 1,200 Rare Earths n/a Rhenium 18 Selenium 17 (refined metal, western world) Silicon 4,000 Silver 3,000 Sulphur 7,100 Tantalum 40 Tellurium 7 (refined metal, western world) Tin 1,350 (refined metal) Titanium 330 Tungsten 207 Uranium 2,300 Vanadium 450 Vermiculite 67 (Western world) Zinc 6,500 (refined metal) Zirconium 133

10

TABLE 5

IMPORT DEPENDENCE 1985-86 IN PERCENTAGES Imports as a percentage of domestic consumption plus exports

Aluminium (inc. bauxite and alumina)

Antimony (a) Arsenic Asbestos Barytes Beryll i urn Bismuth Boron Cadmium (refined) Chromium Cobalt (a) Copper Fluorspar Gallium Germanium (refined) Indium Iron Ore Lead Lithium Magnesium Metal Manganese Mercury Molybdenum Nickel Niobium Phosphate Platinum Group (a) Potash Rare Earths Rhenium Selenium Silicon Silver Sulphur Tantalum Tellurium Tin Titanium Tungsten Uranium Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium

United European Kingdom Community

89 100 100 100

52 100 100 100 65

100 100

91 11

n/a 100 n/a 100

53 100

91 100 100 (a) 100 100 100 100 100 47

100 100 100 100 84 86

100 n/a

50 100 100 (a) 100 100 100

77 100

80 97

n/a 55 19

100 79

100 27 91

100 82 32

n/a 25

n/a 94 44

100 50 99

n/a 100 88

100 97

100 25

100 100 100 44 53 21

100 n/a 86

100 89 (a) 75

100 100

62 100

(a) Before allowing for secondary recovery.

Japan

77 98

n/a 100

47 100

100

99 100

91 100 n/a

22 25

100 61

100 37 99 7

100 100 100 100

98 n/a 100 100 100 100

21

100 5

95 100

53 (a) 100 100

61 100

United States

73 98 84 67 85 19 76 8

58 76

100 22 86

n/a n/a

23 17

4 100 n/a

83 100

100 28 15 19 55 58

100 15 87

under 22 72 86 63

n/a 36 10 57 37

In calculating these ratios no allowance has generally been made for changes in stocks.

11

TABLE 6

THE HISTORIC GROWTH OF TOTAL MINE PRODUCTION

% p.a. average compound growth rates 1969 to 1979

Aluminium (bauxite) Antimony Arsenic Asbestos Barytes Beryllium Bismuth Boron Cadmium Chromium Cobalt Copper Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gold Indium Industrial Diamonds

(including synthetics) Iron Ore Lead Lithium Magnesium (all forms) Manganese Mercury Molybdenum Nickel Niobium Phosphate Platinum Group Potash Rare Earths Rhenium Selenium Silicon Silver Sulphur Tantalum Tellurium Tin Titanium Tungsten Uranium Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium

12

5.4 0.7

-4.5 3.4 5.7

c. -4.3 c. 2

4.8 2.0 5.9 3.6 3.0 2.3

20 2.9

-2.0 -1.5

6.8 2.3 0.8 5.3 approx. 0.2 1.3

-4.0 3.4 3.8 4.6 4.9 6.8 4.2 3.8

11.1 2.9 5.8 1.5 3.8 0.3 3.0 1.1 1.5 3.3 8.0 8.0 2.7 1.2 3.2 (exc. USA)

TABLE 7

COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES OF CONSUMPTION IN THE 1970s % p.a. average compound rates 1969/70 to 1979/80 in most cases

Aluminium (inc. secondary) Antimony (primary) Arsenic Asbestos Barytes Beryllium Bismuth Boron Cadmium Chromium Cobalt Copper Fluorspar Gallium Germanium Gold (industrial uses) Indium Industrial Diamonds

(inc. synthetics) Iron Ore Lead Lithium Magnesium Metal Manganese Ore Manganese Ferro Mercury Molybdenum Nickel Niobium Phosphate P 1 at i num Gr·oup Potash Rare Earths Rhenium Selenium Silicon Silver (industrial uses) Sulphur Tantalum Tellurium Tin Titanium Tungsten Uranium (civil usage) Vanadium Vermiculite Zinc Zirconium

United Kingdom

-1.6 -7.5 n/a -2.8 6.8

n/a n/a n/a -0.2 -4.8 -0.5 -1.9 0.2

n/a n/a 0.2

n/a

n/a -2.2 -0.6 n/a -0.5 -2.7 -4.7 9.7 (a) -3.5 -0.3 -5.0 0.6

n/a -0.7 n/a n/a 2.6

-2.0 -0.7 -0.7 n/a n/a -4.9 -1.3 -8.3 n/a -3.0 n/a -3.0 -1.7

European Community

4.1 n/a n/a 1.1

-0.6 n/a n/a n/a 1.4 6.5 0.2 1.6

-0.4 n/a n/a -1.0 n/a

n/a -0.1 0.2

n/a -2.0 -0.2 0.5

n/a 2.3 3.4

5 to 8 1.7

n/a 1.5

n/a n/a n/a n/a -1.9 0.7

n/a n/a -1.7

-6.0 14.3 n/a n/a 0.8 4.2

Japan

7.3 -6.9 n/a 1.9 0.4

n/a n/a 1.2

-3.8 4.1 0.7 5.0

-0.5 n/a 2.1 2.2

n/a

13.9 7.0 3.4

11.7 8.5 1.5 2.1

-11.5 4.4 4.3

12.1 {b) 0.8

10.1 1.0

n/a n/a 1.0 5.8 3.9

-1.4 13.6 (c) n/a 1.9 4.3

-4.9 25.3 8.7

n/a 2.2 8.4

(a) Primary only. (b) Ferroniobium only.

13

(c) Powder only.

United States

3.2 -3.2 -2.4 -3.9 8.9

-1.7 -0.6 3.6

-2.1 0.5

0.6 -2.5 21.4 4.0

-2.6 1.7

7.4 -1.9 0.6 5.2 2.8

-6.0 -1.6 -1.4 3.1 1.8 4.1 4.3 6.3 4.5 5.2 7.2

-5.0 2.4 0.8 3.4 1.8 1.2

-1.6 1.5 1.6

10.6 -0.3 1.9

-2.4 0.2

TABLE 8

COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES OF CONSUMPTION IN FIRST HALF OF THE 1980s % p.a. average compound growth rates 1979/80 to 1985/86

United European Japan United Kingdom Community States

Aluminium (inc. secondary) -2.1 1.0 2.0 -0.4 Antimony (primary) 0.5 3.9 -8.4 -0.4 Arsenic n/a n/a n/a 2.1 Asbestos 18.0 -14.8 -6.0 -17.9 Barytes 2.9 -1.6 -0.6 -11.1 Beryllium n/a n/a n/a -1.7 Bismuth n/a -6.5 3.4 4.1 Boron n/a n/a n/a -2.1 Cadmium 0.7 -1.1 8.5 -0.1 Chromium 4.3 -6.5 -0.6 -9.9 Cobalt -12.8 n/a -5.0 -1.0 Copper -4.6 -0.8 -1.3 0.2 Fluorspar 1.4 0.2 5.1 -9.2 Gallium n/a n/a n/a 2.7 Germanium n/a n/a n/a 2.9 Gold (industrial uses)(a) 5.4 7.0 14.1 2.8 Indium n/a n/a 12.5 2.6 Industrial Diamonds

(inc. synthetics) n/a n/a 12.8 12.4 Iron Ore -1.2 -3.2 -1.8 -8.2 Lead -2.0 -1.1 0.6 Lithium n/a n/a 6.7 -2.4 Magnesium metal -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -1.8 Manganese ore -1.5 -4.8 -5.8 -11.9 Manganese ferro -2.2 -6.2 -1.4 -11.6 Mercury n/a n/a -2.8 -4.1 Molybdenum -5.6 -2.1 -1.4 -9.9 Nickel -1.7 0.6 -3.2 Niobium -5.0 3.0 8.0 -0.8 Phosphate -8.5 -3.8 -3.1 -1.6 Platinum Group n/a n/a 5.8 2.8 Potash 3.9 0.4 -3.3 -4.4 Rare Earths n/a n/a n/a -6.9 Rhenium n/a n/a n/a 10.0 Selenium 5.5 n/a 7.7 6.5 Silicon -0.8 -0.1 -9.8 -5.2 Silver (industrial uses) -2.8 -1.3 4.3 0.4 Sulphur -5.7 -2.0 -0.9 -1.4 Tanta 1 urn n/a n/a 6.9 -6.6 Tellurium n/a n/a n/a n/a Tin (inc. secondary) -3.1 -0.7 0.3 -4.2 Titanium (pigments) 3.8 n/a 5.5 3.7 Tungsten -14.3 -2.6 -4.7 -10.4 Vanadium n/a n/a 0.2 -5.7 Vermiculite n/a n/a n/a -0.3 Zinc -2.0 -0.6 1.4 Zirconium n/a n/a n/a 2.0

(a) Growth rate for 1980-1986.

14

Antimony Asbestos

Beryllium Cadmi urn Chromium Cobalt Copper Fluorspar Gold Industrial Iron Ore Lead Magnesite Manganese Nickel Phosphate

TABLE 9

SOUTH AFRICAN SHARES OF WORLD RESERVES AND PRODUCTION (percentages)

Reserves Primary Production 1985-86 Averages

6 13 6 3 (but 100% of

amosite and crocidolite)

4 6 (a)

78 36 1 1 2

18 7 59 41

Diamonds 7 13 4 3 4 3

n/a 40 17 5 4

19 2 Platinum Group 80 46 Silicon n/a Silver Sulphur n/a Tin 1 Titanium:

Ilmenite 19 ) Rut i 1 e 5 )

Uranium 15 (b) Vanadium 20 Vermiculite n/a Zinc 7 Zirconium 15

(a) No details available on mine output by country. (b) Western world only.

15

3 (metal and ferro) 2 1 1

11

13 (b) 47 37 1

20

ALUMINIUM/BAUXITE/ALUMINA

WORLD RESERVES OF BAUXITE (million tonnes and% of total)

Developed Developing

Australia 4440 ( 21.2) Brazi 1 Greece 600 (2.9) Cameroon Yugoslavia 350 (1. 7) Ghana Other (inc. Guinea France & Guyana USA) 105 (0.5) India

Indonesia Jamaica Sierra Leone Surinam Venezuela Others -----

Totals 5495 (26.2)

Grand Total 20954

2250 (10.7) 680 (3.2) 450 (2.1)

5600 (26.7) 700 (3.3)

1000 (4.8) 750 (3.6)

2000 (9.5) 140 (0. 7) 575 (2.7) 235 ( 1.1)

__]JJ_ ~)

14659 (70.0)

Centrally Planned

China 150 (0.7) Hungary 300 (1. 4) Romania 50 (0.2) USSR 300 (1. 4)

---800 (3.8)

The bauxite reserve base is estimated at 23,200 million tonnes, and total world resources are estimated at 55 to 75,000 million tonnes.

Based on existing recovery techniques, the recoverable aluminium content of the world's bauxite reserves is 1 billion tonnes for developed countries, and 3 billion for the developing. Including centrally planned economies the total recoverable aluminium content of world reserves is 4,250 million tonnes.

Total world resources of bauxite (reserves plus sub-economic and undiscovered deposits) are calculated at 8,000 million tonnes of recoverable aluminium, on the basis of present recovery techniques. (The USSR also produces aluminium from alunite and nepheline syenite so that the table under-estimates the USSR's available deposits of aluminium containing minerals).

16

Aluminium/Bauxite/Alumina

BAUXITE: WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Australia France Greece Turkey USA Yugoslavia Others

Totals Grand Total

32136 (36.3) 1455 ( 1.6) 2330 (2.6)

253 (0.3) 5g2 (0. 7)

3490 (4.0) 3 ( .. )

40259 (45.5)

Developing

Brazil Ghana Guinea Guyana India Indonesia Jamaica Malaysia Sierra Leone Surinam Zimbabwe Others

88462

6146 (6.9) 187 (0.2)

14306 (16.2) 2114 (2.4) 2303 (2.6) 741 (0.8)

6602 ( 7.5) 529 (0.6)

1213 (1.4) 3735 (4.2)

30 ( •• ) __ 7 _ld

37913 (42.9)

Centrally Planned

China Hungary Romania USSR

2150 (2.4) 2920 (3.3) 480 (0.5)

4740 (5.4)

10290 (11.6)

Note: The USSR's production of nepheline syenite and alunite were equivalent to roughly 1.6 million tonnes of bauxite.

ALUMINA: WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Australia Canada France W Germany Greece Ireland Italy Japan Spain Turkey UK USA Yugoslavia Totals Grand Total

9108 (26.5) 1017 (3.0) 881 (2 .6)

1609 ( 4. 7) 430 (1.3) 621 (1.8) 587 (1.7)

1146 (3.3) 739 (2. 2) 128 (0.4) 108 (0.3)

3523 (10.3) 1128 ___ild)

21025 (61.2)

Developing

Brazi 1 Guinea India Jamaica Surinam Venezuela

34363

Figures refer to alumina hydrate.

1147 (3.3) 569 (1. 7) 579 (1. 7)

1604 (4.7) 1356 (3.9) 1202 (3.5)

6457 (18.8)

Centrally Planned

China 975 (2.8) Czecho-s 1 ovak i a 73 (0.2) E Germany 47 (0.1) Hungary 812 (2.4) Romania 549 (1.6) USSR 4425 (12.9)

6881 (20.0)

Approximately 2.364 million tonnes of alumina production was used for nonmetallic purposes in Western countries.

17


PRIMARY ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 863.4 (5.6) Argentina 145.3 (0.9) China 453 (2.9) Austria 93.3 (0.6) Bahrain 176.5 (1.1) Czecho-Canada 1318.8 (8.5) Brazi 1 653.4 (4.2) slovakia 32 (0.2) France 307.5 (2.0) Cameroon 81.4 (0.5) E Germany 60 (0.4) W Germany 754.5 (4.9) Egypt 177.7 ( 1.1) Hungary 74 (0.5) Greece 123.9 (0.8) Ghana 86.6 (0.6) N Korea 10 (0.1) Iceland 78.0 (0.5) India 261.8 (1. 7) Poland 47 (0.3) Italy 233.4 ( 1. 5) Indonesia 217.8 (1.4) Romania 263 (1. 7) Japan 183.5 ( 1. 2) Iran 41.5 (0.3) USSR 2325 (15.0) Netherlds 251.3 (1.6) S Korea 17.4 (0.1) N Zealand 239.9 (1. 5) Mexico 39.9 (0.3) Norway 726.6 ( 4. 7) Surinam 28.8 (0.2) S Africa 167.1 ( 1.1) UAE 154.0 (1.0) Spain 362.4 (2.3) Venezuela 413.1 (2. 7) Sweden 80.4 (0.5) Switzerld 76.6 (0.5) Turkey 57.0 (0.4) UK 275.8 (1.8) USA 3268.1 (21.0) Yugoslavia 314.7 _jb.Q) ----Totals 9776.2 (62.9) 2495.2 (16.1) 3264 (21.0)

Grand Total 15535.4

18


MINE 2 SMELTER & REFINERY CAPACITIES 2 1986 ('000 tonnes)

Bauxite Alumina Aluminium

Developed Australia 38800 9230 1028 Canada 1225 1582 France 1440 1070 327 W Germany 1240 735 Greece 4710 600 150 Italy 720 229 Japan 1915 64 Norway 856 New Zea 1 and 244 Turkey 600 200 60 USA 1800 4700 3896 Yugoslavia 4650 1320 322 Others 1720 1425

Total 52000 23940 10918

Developing

Brazil 7600 1200 873 Ghana 400 200 Guinea 14500 700 Guyana 4200 350 India 5205 1110 473 Indonesia 1300 225 Jamaica 10400 3110 Sierra Leone 1150 Surinam 4500 1200 30 Venezuela 1000 1400 450 Other Africa 257 Other Asia 1000 403 Other Latin America 225

Total 51255 9070 3136

Centrall~ Planned China 3250 1245 618 Hungary 3760 805 73 USSR 11600 4600 3205 Others 750 1005 538

Total 19360 7655 4434

TOTAL 122615 40665* 18488

* Metallurgical capacity = 36745

19


ALUMINIUM RECOVERED FROM SCRAP: WESTERN COUNTRIES ( 1000 tonnes 1985/86 Averages)

European Community Japan United States Other Countries Total

RESERVE PRODUCTION RATIOS FOR BAUXITE

Static reserve life (years) Ratio of reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000

CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY ALUMINIUM

1 000 tonnes

1174 867

1768 583

4392

237

13 : 1

Growth rate % 1985/86 Averages 1960-70 1970-80

European Community 3117 7.5 4.2 Japan 1660 20.7 7.1 USA 4275 7.8 2.8 Others 3623 4.7 7.5 Total Western world 12675 9.3 4.6 Total world 16188 9.2 4.7

END USE PATTERNS 1986 %

Bauxite/Alumina (USA)

Aluminium metal : 90 Refractories, chemicals, abrasives and other products: 10

Aluminium Packaging Building Transport Electrical Consumer Durables Others (inc. exports of semis)

Sources: Metallgesellschaft and USBM

USA 29 22 21 10 7

11

20

Japan W Europe 7 7

27 12 29 19 6 6 5 4

26 52

p.a. 1980-86

1.4 -0.2 -0.7 4.0 1.1 1.2



$24.3 billion (primary metal) at 1987 average LME price.

SUBSTITUTES

Bauxite/Alumina

Calcined clay can be substituted for refractory bauxite but only with reduction in length of life and in shock resistance. Sillimanite-alumina, silicon carbide, magnesite-chromite and carbon-magnesite refractories are alternatives for high-alumina material but at higher cost. Silicon carbide and diamonds can substitute for fused aluminium oxide in abrasive use but again at higher cost.

Aluminium

Plastics and steel compete for many applications, notably for machinery, household appliances, and with glass and paper, for the container market. Magnesium, titanium and composites compete in the transport and structural industry whilst wood is becoming increasingly important in the construction industry. Copper can be used in many applications.

Potential for substitutes often limited by relative weight (steel) or cost (titanium, magnesium).

TECHNICAL POSSIBILITIES

Bauxite/Alumina

Development continuing on alternative raw materials including coal wastes, anthracite, clay and shale. Political considerations likely to be more important.

Possible development of other refractories, using nitrides and borides of titanium and zirconium.

Chemical use may be limited by development of chemicals or processes for recycling water.

Aluminium

Energy costs are a significant constraint on production in industrial countries. Advances in methods of alumina reduction should help keep aluminium competitive.

Development of composites and new alloys could reduce use in transport applications.

Changes in packaging processes could encourage use of aluminium food can.

21


PRICES

Bauxite and Alumina

Historically bauxite and alumina moved within integrated producers with pricing largely a book-keeping exercise. The diminishing importance of the integrated company and fundamental changes in the economic environment have resulted in more material moving under long term supply contracts. National bauxite levies and freight charges are major components of price. Spot purchases became more common in the alumina market in the mid-1980s mainly because oversupply.

Aluminium

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

cents/lb

World producer (Alcan export price) 79.5 79.5 79.5*

US dealer range 42.7-53 48-80 47.5-78 44.5-52.5 52.0-65.0 52.0-90

LME cash - average 45 65.3 56.5 47.9 52.2 70.95

Real 1987 price (LME) 46.2 66.3 56.1 47.4 53.6 70.95

£/tonne

LME cash 523.0- 684.0- 803.74- 660.1- 721.5- 758.75-Monthly average range 609.8 1079.8 1099.7 1004.6 887.5 1309.5

* Discontinued October 1984

Prior to the late 1970s, pricing was dominated by long term producer contracts. The introduction of terminal markets (LME in 1979, Comex in 1983), plus structural changes in the market, mean that pricing is now far less rigid. Today, a combination of flexible producer contracts and a dealer-controlled spot market exists. Producer contracts are short to medium term for fixed tonnages but with frequent price negotiations, linked to terminal market prices. Energy costs exert a strong influence on price.

MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS

Bauxite and Alumina

A large proportion of sales are still within integrated producers, or through shared production arrangements, although there is an increasing trend towards independent smelters. The International Bauxite Association (IBA) has Jamaica, Guyana, Indonesia, Surinam, Ghana, Guinea, Sierra Leone,

22


India, Yugoslavia and Australia as members. The IBA pools price and market information with the objective of 'fair and reasonable returns', although the search for minimum price arrangements has so far been unsuccessful.

Aluminium

Substantial vertical integration from mine to fabricated product was a feature of the industry since the turn of the century with six companies and their associates dominating the stage: Alcan, Alcoa, Alusuisse, Kaiser, Reynolds and Pechiney. The oligopolistic nature of the industry has gradually been broken down since the early 1970s by the rise of independent smelters in energy rich nations of the Third World and Oceania. The difficult economic conditions of the early 1980s have aided the process. Many of the large integrated concerns have now divested themselves of unprofitable subsidiaries although the 'big 6' still own some 40% of Western world primary aluminium capacity; through control over technology, their effective hold on the industry is even higher.

23


AWMINIUM LME cash average

Index Numbers 1987 = 100

110

90

80

70

60~------~------~~------~-------r------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

24


SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR BAUXITE BY MAIN MARKET AREA

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 3785 592

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 264 7477 2913 6807

Source of Net Imports (%)

Australia 3 29 61 10 Brazil 33 3 5 China 2 3 2 European Community 6 Ghana 52 2 Guinea 47 52 Guyana 3 1 3 Indonesia 24 Jamaica 27 Malaysia 11 Sierra Leone 10 Surinam 1 2 Others 4 3 1 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 945 0.4 63

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 264 10317 2913 7554

(apparent) (apparent) (apparent)

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 72 100 90 Imports as % of

consumption and net exports 100 66 100 89

Share of World Consumption (%)

Total world 12 3 9

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -1.1 6 6.6

25


SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR ALUMINA BY MAIN MARKET AREA

UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 108 4235 1146 3523

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) 555 1356 53 3718


Australia 23 76 82 Canada 1 European Community 55 3 USA 21 Guinea 21 Jamaica 41 32 7 Surinam 22 7 Venezuela 2 1 Others 2 2 2

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 8 725 328 402

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 655 4866 870 6839

(apparent) (apparent) (apparent) (apparent)



Share of World Consumption (%) Total world 2 14 3 20

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -1.1 6 6.4

26


SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR ALUMINIUM METAL BY MAIN MARKET AREA

UK EC{10) Japan USA

Production {1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes)

Primary Metal 276 1946 183 3268 Secondary Metal 116 1102 803 1613 Total 392 3048 986 4881

Net Imports {1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes) 173 1400 1395 1092

Source of Net Imports (%) European Community 12 1 1 Iceland 8 3 Norway 65 40 Spain 3 9 1 1 Sweden 3 2 Switzer 1 and 4 Yugoslavia 1 5 Canada 1 9 71 USA 1 12 S Africa 1 2 Australia 1 22 1 New Zealand 12 Cameroon 4 Egypt 2 5 Ghana 1 1 4 Argentina 1 2 Brazil 4 2 7 Surinam 1 Venezuela 2 13 4 Bahrain 3 1 UAE 3 5 Indonesia 13 Romania 4 USSR 1 3 5 Others 3 8 3 1

Net Exports {1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 123 181 2 280

Consumption {1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)

Primary Metal 370 3117 1660 4275 Secondary Metal 76 1007 969 1613 Total 446 4124 2629 5888

27


UK EC ( 10) Japan USA



Share of World Consumption (%) (Primary and Secondary Metal)

Western world 2.9 24.6 13.0 33.7 Total world 2.3 19.3 10.3 26.4

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) Primary Metal 1970s 1.6 4.2 7.1 2.8 Total Metal 1970s -1.6 4.1 7.3 3.2

28

ANTIMONY

WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes contained antimony and% of total)


Australia 90 {2) Bolivia 310 {8) Canada 50 (1) Malaysia 120 (3) Italy 45 ( 1) Mexico 180 ( 4) S Africa 235 (6) Morocco 60 (1) Turkey 90 (2) Peru 60 ( 1) USA 75 (2) Thailand 270 (7) Yugoslavia ~ _jl) ----Totals 675 (16) 1000 (24) Grand Total 4170

Centrally Planned

China Czechoslovakia USSR

2180 (52)

45 ( 1) 270 ( 7)

2495 (60)

The world reserve base is 4.7 million tonnes and identified world resources are estimated at 5.0 million tonnes.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes metal and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 1.26 (2.3) Bolivia 9.58 (17.6) China 13.75 (25.3) Austria 0.49 (0.9) Guatemala 1.37 (2.5) Czecho-Canada 2.49 (4.6) Malaysia 0.01 slovakia 0.95 (1. 7) Italy 0.39 (0. 7) Mexico 3.80 (7.0) USSR 6.25 (11.5) S Africa 7.20 (13.2) Morocco 0.86 ( 1. 6) Others 0.70 ( 1. 3) Spain 0.15 {0.3) Peru 0.32 {0.6) Turkey 1. 73 (3.2) Thai land 1.65 (3.0) USA 0.35 (0.6) Zimbabwe 0.12 (0.2) Yugoslavia 0 . 9 7 _jl!.§) ----- ----Totals 15.03 (27.6) 17.71 (32.6) 21.65 {39.8) Grand Total 54.39

WORLD PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985

World production capacity is 107,000 tonnes.

29

Antimony

SECONDARY PRODUCTION

Sizeable tonnages of antimony are contained in recycled antimonial lead, on which the available statistics are incomplete. Total secondary recovery averaged 13,635 tonnes of contained antimony in the United States and 1,623 tonnes in the United Kingdom in 1985/86. Changes in battery technology are continuing to reduce this source of supply.

RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIOS

Static reserve life (years): 77 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 3.9 1

CONSUMPTION (Primary)

1985/86 Averages tonnes

European Community United States Japan Western World

(a) Reported primary. (b) Of which oxide = 9374. (c) Metal only

10800 10275(a) 10231(b) 36000(c)

END USE PATTERNS 1986 (USA) (%)

Metal products Flame retardants Ceramics & glass Plastics Other

15 63

9 9 4


% p.a. growth 1970s 1980-86

falling fast -3.2 -6.9 (b)

falling fast

3.9 -0.4 -8.4(c) n/a

$126 million (at average 1987 European Free Market metal price).

30

Antimony

SUBSTITUTES

Tin, calcium, copper, selenium and cadmium are among the substitute hardeners for lead in batteries. Antimonial lead has lost substantial market share in recent years in batteries, mainly to low-maintenance and maintenance-free battery systems.

Antimony can be replaced by organic compounds or hydrated aluminium oxide in flame retardants and by tellurium and selenium in rubber manufacture.

Plastics or stainless steel products can replace enamel coated products. Titanium, zinc, chromium, tin and zirconium may be substituted in paints, pigments and enamels.


Stabilisers in specialised plastics.

Advances in storage battery construction are bringing displacement of antimony and antimony recovery from this source is decreasing. Development of electric vehicles could utilise high-antimony batteries for deep-cycling characteristics.

Possible uses in aircraft night-vision systems and in space astronomy.

PRICES (Source: Metal Bulletin)

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Ore Lump sulphide ore 60% Sb cif $/metric ton unit Sb Range 14.75-21 13.5-17.5 18.25-31 23-31 19-23 19.5-25

Metal European Free Market Regulus 99.6% $/tonne 2177.2 2004.4 3083.6 2812.3 2580.0 2314.2

Real 1987 price 2121.5 2034.9 3063.5 2783.6 2648.6 2314.2

Supply/demand balance important and brings fluctuating prices. Due to the influence of Chinese supplies, the free market is most important though there is some producer pricing for antimonial lead.

31

Antimony


Mixture of state-owned production (Bolivia, Russia and China) and large private companies (e.g.: Consolidated Murchison inS Africa). Producers, consumers and traders belong to the Organizacion Internacional del Antimonio, which studies the problem of supply/demand imbalance, promotes the use of antimony and researches future uses and production techniques. The US Government is continuing to dispose of offgrade antimony from its stockpile. At end-1986, 1250 tonnes remained in excess of requirements.

32

Antimony

ANTIMONY European free Mkt. Regulus 9.96%


140

130

120

110

100

90

80~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

33

Antimony

SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MAIN MARKET AREA

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine 387 350 Metal (primary) n/a n/a 245 528(Sb) Oxides n/a n/a 8474 14670(Sb)

Net Imeorts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes)

Ores and concentrates 3500(a) 19145(b) 5746 5667 (Sb content) (Sb content)

Unwrought metal 89 1363 4127 5928 Oxide 1173 1840 3141 9088

(Sb content)

Total Sb content 4562 12271 (b) 9550 20683

Wrought meta 1 393 402

(a) 1985 only (b) Excluding UK ores

Source of Net Imeorts (%)

Ores and Concentrates Australia 7 Canada 1 2 3 S Africa 4 2 Bolivia 25 67 7 Chile 2 2 China 42 24 24 Guatemala 4 7 Hong Kong 3 Mexico 38 Morocco 3 Singapore 7 Thailand 2 5 Turkey 8 Zimbabwe 2 Others 4 1 4

34

UK

Unwrought Metal (excluding alloys) European Community Spain Bolivia China Mexico Hong Kong Peru Turkey USSR Others

Oxide European Community USA Bolivia China Hong Kong S Africa USSR Others

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates Unwrought metal Oxides Wrought metal

(a) Excluding UK

33

30

19 18

80

10

10

n/a 15

c. 3700 (c) 16

(b) Excluding Belgium-Luxembourg (c) 1985 only (d) Excluding UK and Belgium-Luxembourg

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) 479 (a)

1850 (b)

(a) Primary metal (b) All primary forms Sb content (c) Metal + oxide

EC(10)

4

49

29 11 7

77 5

18

299 (a) 108 (b)

2470 (d) 31

Japan

100

43 2

49 1

4 2

4

Antimony

USA

1 61 20 11 1

2 4

17

6 28 7

39

3

434 665 (Sb)

10800 (b) 857.5 (a) 10275 (b) (reported)

9373.5 (c) 23135 (d) (apparent)

(d) Mine output + imports of ores, metals and oxide less exports

35

Antimony

UK EC(10) Japan USA

ImEort DeEendence(primary) Imports as % of consumption 100 96 100 98 Imports as % of consumption and net exports 100 97 100 98

Share of World ConsumEtion % Western world 5 30 29 28

ConsumEtion Growth % p.a. 1970s -7.5 n/a -6.9 -5.5

(primary) but large (metal) (reported fall in primary) 1970s

0.2 (apparent total)

36

ARSENIC

WORLD RESERVES

Arsenic is mostly found in association with deposits of complex base-metal ores, particularly copper-lead-zinc ores and arsenical pyrite copper ore. Arsenic trioxide is recovered as a byproduct during the smelting of such ores.

World reserves of arsenic, contained in copper and lead reserves, are estimated at 1 million tonnes. Half of these deposits are located in Chile (260,000t}, USA (50,000t), Canada (50,000t), Mexico (40,000t}, Peru (40,000t) and Philippines (40,000t), with the remainder principally in Europe (France and Sweden), Africa (Namibia) and Oceania.

The reserve base is 1.5 million tonnes and world resources contain approximately 11 million tonnes of arsenic. Arsenic trioxide= 76% contained arsenic.

WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 (Arsenic trioxide tonnes and% of total)

Refinery % of Productive Production Production Capacity

Developed Belgium 3000 (15.4} 3000 Canada 3000 (5.4} 3000 France 9000 (16.3) 10000 W Germany 360 (0.7) (a) Japan 500 (0.9) 2000 Portugal 160 (0.3) (a) Sweden 10000 (18.2) 8000 USA 1100 (2.0} 2500 (c) Other Europe __!]}_!_ 2Q!L..(b)

Total 27120 (49.2) 29000

Developing Bolivia 280 (0.5} 400 Chile 5000 (9.1) 4000 Mexico 6156 (11.2) 7000 Namibia 2204 (4.0} 3000 Peru 1233 (2.2) 2500 Philippines 5000 (9.1) 5000 S Korea __!]}_!_ 800

Total 19873 (36.1) 22700

Centrall~ Planned USSR 8100 (14. 7) 10000

TOTAL 55093 61700

(a) Included in Other Europe (b) Mainly W Germany and Portugal although recovery is also known to have

occurred in recent years in Austria, Spain, UK, Yugoslavia and several E European nations.

(c) Refinery closed in 1986.

37

Arsenic


Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserve base to cumulative demand 1987-2000:

CONSUMPTION

23

2.5 1

Statistics are limited to the USA where demand has shown considerable annual variation since reaching a peak of 33,100 tonnes of arsenic trioxide in 1974. Following a decline in consumption in the 1970s (2.4% p.a.), the 1980s have seen a revival in use, with average demand in 1985/86 around 26,000 tonnes of arsenic trioxide. Since 1982 demand has increased at a rate of 7.7% p.a.

END USE PATTERNS 1986 USA (%)

Industrial Chemicals (wood preservatives and mineral flotation reagents) 67

Agricultural Chemicals (herbicides and plant desiccants) 25

Glass and Ceramics 4 Non-ferrous alloys

(metallic form) 2 Others

(animal feed additives, pharmaceuticals, etc.) 2

VALUE OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION

$55 million (as trioxide at 1987 prices)

SUBSTITUTES

Substitutes exist in most end uses, although sometimes at higher cost. Imposition of increasingly tight environmental regulations encourages substitution.

A wide variety of organic compounds substitute for arsenical insecticides and herbicides. Creosote and pentachlorophenol are often interchangeable with the arsenical wood preservatives.

Selenium and cerium are alternatives in glass. Calcium-lead alloys substitute for antimony-lead-arsenic alloys in car storage batteries.

38

Arsenic


Improvement in recovery of arsenic and controlling arsenic emissions during non-ferrous metal smelting.

Replacement of silicon chip by gallium arsenide chip.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Trioxide Mexican 99.3% As203

fob Laredo Texas cents/lb 69.4 51.9 42.5 42.0 42.8 44

Rea 1 1987 price 71.3 52.7 42.1 41.8 43.9 44


Refinery production of arsenic trioxide is dominated by a handful of large companies of which IMM in Mexico, Boliden in Sweden, the state owned Centromin in Peru and Penarroya in France are the most important. Namibia's output comes from Tsumeb Corporation.

39

Arsenic

ARSENIC Trioxide US producer import 95% AS 2 0 3


170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

----90~--------~------~~------~--------~------~

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

40


Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes of arsenic trioxide) Mine Production Refinery

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) Arsenic trioxide Meta 11 ic arsenic

(a) Includes tellurium

UK

5032 153 (a)

EC(10)

12360

4443 (b) 495 (a)

Japan

n/a 500

153 43 (c)

Arsenic

USA

1100

21100 401

(b) Includes gross UK imports for which no source data are available (c) Includes boron


Arsenic trioxide Canada 13 European Community 92 32 S Africa 3 Sweden 24 Chile 4 China 3 Mexico 19 S Korea 6 Others 5

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Arsenic trioxide 112 3705 (b) Metallic arsenic 128 (a) 212 (a)

(a) Includes tellurium (b) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes of arsenic trioxide) n/a n/a n/a c. 25000

41

Arsenic

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Imeort Deeendence Imports as % of Consumption 100 n/a n/a 84 Imports as % Consumption

and net exports 100 n/a n/a 84

Share of World Consumetion (%)

Total world n/a n/a n/a c. 45

Consumetion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a n/a -2.4

42

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes and% of total)

Developed

Canada 37 (33.0) S Africa 7 {6.2) USA 4 (3.6) Others 3 (2.7) (Australia, Cyprus, Japan, Yugoslavia)

Totals Grand Total

51 {45.9)

ASBESTOS

Developing Centrally Planned

13 (11.6) 48 {42.9) 112

The reserve base is 104 million tonnes. The world's identified resources total 200 million tonnes, and hypothetical resources include an additional 45 million tonnes.

43

Asbestos

WORLD MINE REFINERY PRODUCTION 2 1985/862 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 ('000 tonnes and% of total)

Mine % of Productive Production Production Capacity

Developed Canada 695 (15.1) 1140 Cyprus 16 (0.3) 30 Greece 47 (1.0) 110 Italy 126 (2. 7) 175 Japan 4 (0.1) 4 S Africa 152 (3.3) 390 Turkey 2 15 USA 54 (1. 2) 100 Yugoslavia 7 (0.2) 20

Total 1103 (24.0) 2054

Developing Brazi 1 174 (3.8) 200 Colombia 13 (0.3) 15 India 30 (0.7) 35 Indonesia 25 (0.5) 25 S Korea 5 (0.1) 15 Swazi land 25 (0.5) 50 Zimbabwe 174 (3.8) 250 Others 2 9

Total 448 (9. 7) 599

Centrall~ Planned China 150 (3.3) 300 USSR 2900 (63.0) 2650 Others 7

Total 3050 (66.3) 2957

TOTAL 4601 (100) 5610

Over 95% of all asbestos mined is of crysotile. Amosite and crocidolite make up most of the remainder and are mined almost exclusively in South Africa. South African production capacity is 31% crysotile, 54% crocidolite and 15% amosite.

44


Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:

CONSUMPTION

24

1.2 1

1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes

European Community Japan United States

332 (apparent) 192.5 141


Asbestos-cement pipe and sheet 21 Flooring products 5 Friction products 22 Coating and compounds 15 Packing and gaskets 4 Paper 11 Roofing products 17 Others 5


Asbestos

% p.a. growth rates 1970s 1980-86

1.1 1.9

-3.9

-14.8 -6.0

-16.7

$1.6 billion approx. (based on 1987 average US fob mine value).

SUBSTITUTES

Although substitution is possible in many end uses, particularly asbestoscement products where ceramic and new plastic materials are available, few substitutes can give both physical and chemical characteristics at the same cost. However, regardless of the technical difficulties involved, greatly tightened health regulations are hastening the replacement of asbestos in all uses in developed countries. Among the alternatives are glassreinforced cement and artifical and natural fibres.

45

Asbestos


Changes in manufacturing methods to reduce health hazards.

Potential new uses of asbestos are likely to be discouraged by the environmental hazards associated with it. However there is some potential for use in high strength asphalt paving materials. Use as a reinforcing agent for lightweight plastics will grow as energy conservation increases in car and steel-consuming industries.

PRICES

Canadian Chrysotile fibre

1982

$ C/short ton (range)

Group 3

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

(Spinning fibre) 1199-1980 1361-2223 1043-2268 1043-2268 1043-2268 1043-2268 Group 4 (Spinning fibre) 877-1246 980-1361 980-1361 980-1361 980-1361 980-1361 Group 7 (Refuse/Shorts) 124-252 145-281 145-281 145-281 145-281 145-281 Group 7 Real 1987 prices 127-259 147-285 144-279 144-278 149-288 145-281

Producer pricing in fixed contracts with discounting. Price depends on grade.


Asbestos is available in a number of different minerals but the majority of demand is for chrysotile. Vertical integration was a dominant feature in the industry until recently; today, Turner & Newall (UK) and the Eternite Group (Belgium) are the only multinational corporations that both mine and manufacture asbestos products.

46

105

100

95

90

85

ASBESTOS Fibre Group 7 (Range) Real 7


I' I '

I I

I I

I I

I I

I I

I

money terms , ____ .; rea/1987 terms

Asbestos

/

80~--------~------~~------~--------~------~

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

47

Asbestos


Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes)

UK EC ( 10) Japan

173

USA

54

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) 32.2 215 259 125

(of which crocidolite and amos ite 3)


Canada 75 Cyprus 2 European Community 6 S Africa 15 USA USSR Zimbabwe 1 Others 1 (a) 100% of amosite and crocidolite

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes)

Consumption (1985/86 Averages)

0.25

63 2

9

16 6 4

56.3

( 1 000 tonnes) 32.0 332

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption

and net exports

Share of World Consumption (%) Total world (approx)

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s

(apparent) (apparent)

100

100

1

-2.8

48

65

55

7

1.1

39

5 22 4

16 13 1

0.2

192.5

100

100

4

1.9

94

6 (a)

46.5 (including

re-exports)

141

89

67

3

-3.9

WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes and% of total)

Developed

Canada 2700 (2) France 1800 ( 1) Germany 900 ( .. ) Greece 900 ( .. ) Ireland 1800 ( 1) Italy 1800 ( 1) Turkey 3600 (2) USA 27000 (16) Yugoslavia 1800 ( 1) Others .2QQU Totals 43200 (26) Grand Total

BARYTES

Developing

Algeria 1800 ( 1) Brazil 900 ( .. ) Chile 1800 ( 1) India 31000 (19) Mexico 6350 (4) Morocco 9000 (5) Peru 1800 ( 1) Thailand 8200 (5) Others 9000 (5)

----69850 (42)

165250

Centrally Planned

China USSR Others

36000 (22) 9000 (5) 7200 (4)

52200 (32)

The world reserve base is 450 million tonnes and total world resources are believed to be roughly 1,800 million tonnes.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Canada 55 ( 1. 0) Algeria 60 ( 1.1) China 1000 (18.6) France 118 (2.2) Argentina 45 (0.8) Czecho-W Germany 186 (3.5) Brazil 105 (2.0) s 1 ov ak i a 60 ( 1.1) Ireland 171 (3.2) Chile 54 ( 1. 0) E Germany 35 (0. 7) Italy 121 (2.2) India 451 (8.4) Poland 95 ( 1. 8) Japan 64 ( 1. 2) Iran 90 (1. 7) Romani a 75 ( 1.4) Spain 58 ( 1.1) Mexico 421 (7.8) USSR 540 ( 10.0) Turkey 270 (5.0) Morocco 327 (6.1) UK 97 ( 1.8) Thailand 187 (3.5) USA 470 ( 8. 7) Others 116 (2.2) Yugoslavia 39 (0.7) Others ___]_1_ ~) ----- -----Totals 1721 (32.0) 1856 (34.5) 1805 (33.5) Grand Total 5382

49

Barytes

PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY~ 1985 (Major producers) ('000 tonnes)


Canada 90 Algeria) 450 France 225 Morocco) China 1090 Poland 110

W Germany 270 Braz i 1 135 Romania 90 Ireland 225 Chile 360 USSR 545 Italy 270 India 360 N. Korea 110 Spain 90 Iran 135 Turkey 180 Mexico 360 USA 900 Peru 360

Thailand 360 Totals 2250 2520 1945

The combined production capacity of other producers is 510,000 tonnes, giving a total world barytes production capacity of 7,225,000 tonnes.

RESERVE PRODUCTION RATIOS


CONSUMPTION


31

1.5 1

European Community Japan

758 (apparent) 87

United States 1542 (a)

% p.a. growth 1970s 1980-86

-0.6 0.4 8.9

-1.6 -0.6 -16.7

(a) Ground and crushed barytes sold or used by processors. Apparent primary consumption is estimated at 1,735,000 tonnes.


Drilling 90 Chemicals, Glass, Paint, Rubber 10

50

Barytes


$0.4 billion (at 1987 average prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Drilling mud substitutes include celestite, iron ores, synthetic haematite and ilmenite. However low costs and technical advantages of barytes deter substitution.


Reclaiming and recycling of drilling muds would decrease requirement for new supplies.

New energy sources and development of enhanced oil recovery techniques would reduce need for conventional oil and gas and hence bring drop in drilling activity.

Increasing use in heavy concrete for radiation shields.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Drilling mud grade, 4.2 SG cif £/tonne (range) 45-55 50-55 50-55 50-57 45-57 45-50

Drilling mud grade Real 1987 price 44-56 51-56 50-55 49-56 46-59 45-50

Ground white paint grade 96-98%, BaS04 £/tonne (range) 85-105 85-105 85-135 125-135 125-135 125-135

Usually long term supply contracts. Transport costs important.


The barytes market is largely dependent upon the state of the oil and gas industry. The increasing importance of Chinese production has reduced the previous domination of the market by five US-based companies who together control or are associated with most of the major producing mines in the Western world.

51

Barytes

BARYTES Ground OCMA bulk delivered Aberdeen (was drilled mud grade)


115

110

105

100

95

--, \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ~

90~--------~------~--------,--------,--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

52

Barytes


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 97 736 64 470

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 105.4 176 40.6 1270.5

(crude & (crude) ground) 42

(ground)

Source of Net Imports (%) European Community 71 1 Spain 14 Turkey 3 7 Chile 4 China 2 30 100 47 India 19 Mexico 2 Morocco 22 35 15 Peru 1 Thailand 6 Others 3 9 5

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 11.9 153.7 6

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) 190 758 87 1542


Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 55 23 47 85 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 52 19 47 85


Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 6.8 -0.6 0.4 8.9

53

BERYLLIUM

WORLD RESERVES {'000 tonnes of beryllium content and% of total)

Developed

Australia Portugal S Africa USA

Totals Grand Tot a 1

11 (2.9) 1 {0.3)

15 {3.9) 25 {6.6)

52 {13. 7)

(a) Probably large.

Developing

Argentina Brazil India Mozambique Rwanda Uganda Zaire Zimbabwe

381

Centrally Planned

25 {6.6) China 140 {36.7) USSR

64 {16.8) 5 {1.3)

11 (2.9) 15 {3.9)

7 {1.8) _1 _@d) 268 (70.3)

n/a (a) 61 (16.0)

61 {16.0)

Beryllium occurs in approximately 90 minerals with beryl and bertrandite, the two commercial ores. Only the USA has deposits of bertrandite. Outside of the USA, firm data on beryl reserves are scarce due to the unpredictable nature of concentration and occurrence of beryl in rocks.

The reserve base is approximately twice the size of reserves, with additional deposits in Canada and Mexico.

54

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of beryllium content and% of total)

Mine % of Production Production

Developed Portugal ( .. ) S Africa ( .. ) USA 223 (65.2)

Total 223 {65.2)

Developing Argentina 1 {0.3) Brazil 37 {10.8) Madagascar 2 {0.6) Mozambique ( .. ~ Rwanda 1 (0.3 Zimbabwe 2 {0.6) Others

Total 43 {12.6)

Centrall~ Planned China n/a USSR 76 (22.2)

Total 76 (b) (22.2) {b)

TOTAL 342 {b)

(a) Included in Others {b) Excluding China

Beryllium

Production Capacity

2 8

360 370

45 225 n/a (a)

3 18 23 54

368

75 225 300

1038

The beryllium obtained was extracted from c. 8,550 tonnes of beryl and bertrandite. Bolivia, Nepal and Namibia may also have produced beryl.


Static reserve life (years): Ratio of reserves to cumulative demand: very 1 arge

55

Beryllium

CONSUMPTION

Consumption data are scarce except in the USA which is the world's major consumer. Its apparent consumption in 1985/86 was 263 tonnes of contained beryllium. US consumption declined by 1.7% per annum in the 1970s and by 1.7% per annum in the 1980-86 period.


Nuclear reactors & aerospace applications (metal)

Electrical equipment (alloy & oxide)

Electronic components (alloy & oxide)

Other (compounds & metal)

40

35

17 8


$235 million at average 1987 prices.

SUBSTITUTES

Although beryllium can be substituted in some applications, this usually results in substantial loss of performance.

Steel, titanium and graphite composites compete for structural uses of beryllium metal. Graphite is also an alternative for nuclear uses and in aircraft brake applications. Phosphor-bronze can sometimes be used in place of beryllium-copper alloys and sintered alumina in ceramic applications.


Beryllium metal is likely to face competition from composites such as graphite fibres.

Development of alternative ceramics such as aluminium nitride. New applications in low density aluminium alloys for aerospace and nuclear fields.

56

Beryllium

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Ore, imported into USA $/mtu 130.65 129.1 121.25 111.24 93.82 89.83

Ore, imported Real 1987 price 134.08 131.06 120.46 110.11 6.31 89.83

US Metal $/lb 241.4 241.4 307.03 313.0 313.0 313.0

Ore contracts are usually negotiated on an individual basis. Metal prices are set by US producers.

MARKETING

Production is concentrated in USA, USSR and Brazil, with both the USA and USSR largely self sufficient. The USA is the world's major supplier of finished and semi-finished beryllium materials.

57

Beryllium


Production (1985/86 Averages) Mine Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Beryl ore (contained beryllium) Metal (unwrought) Source of Net Imports (%) USA European Community S Africa Switzerland China Braz i1 Argentina Others and unspecified Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) (a) Metal + oxide Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption

and net exports Share of World Consumption (%) Total world Consumption Growth (%) 1970s

UK

5

Metal 80 20

67

3.5

n/a

100

100

n/a

n/a

EC(10)

4

Metal 100

5

n/a

100

100

n/a

n/a (a) Major western producer and consumer of primary

beryllium products, metal, alloys and oxide.

58

Japan

0.1 Metal

96

4

n/a

USA

223

57

Ore

5 2 2

19 64 4 1

45 ( inc • a 11 oys

waste & scrap)

91 (a) 263 (apparent)

100 22

100 19

n/a n/a (a)

n/a -1.7

Beryllium

BERYLLIUM Ore imported in to USA


150

140

130

120

110

100

90~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

59

BISMUTH

WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of contained bismuth and% of total)

Developed

Australia Canada Japan USA Other Totals Grand Total

18 (19.6) 5 (5.4)

23 (25.0) 9 (9.8) __?_~)

60 (65.2)

Developing

Bolivia 5 (5.4) S Korea 4 (4.3) Mexico 5 (5.4) Peru 11 (12. 0)

---25 (27.2)

92

Centrally Planned

China 5 (5.4) Other 2 (2.2)

---7 (7.6)

Bismuth is derived as a byproduct from various base metal ores, including lead, copper and tin; the above estimates of world reserves are based only on the bismuth content of lead and copper reserves. On the same basis, the reserve base is 204,000 tonnes. Coal ash is a potential source of bismuth, as are deep sea manganese nodules.

60

Bismuth

BISMUTH New York dealer 99.9% min.


140

120

100

80

60

40~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

61

Bismuth

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 (tonnes of bismuth and% of total)


Developed Australia 700 (16.3) 1815 Canada 210 (a) (4.9) 680 Japan 638 (14.8) 950 USA 400 (9.3) 680 Yugoslavia 45 ( 1. 0) 135

Total 1993 (46.3) 4260

Developing Bolivia 101 (2.3) 680 S Korea 136 (3.2) 180 Mexico 911 (a) ( 21.2) 1135 Peru 733 (a) (17.0) 910

Total 1881 (43.7) 2905

Centrallt Planned China 260 (6.0) 360 Romania 82 ( 1. 9) 90 USSR 84 (2.0) 90

Total 426 (9.9) 540

TOTAL 4300 7705

(a) Includes content of exported concentrates.

The production figures in the table are derived from reported bismuth content of metal plus recoverable bismuth in ores and concentrates.

Australia and Bolivia stockpiled bismuth-rich residues at mine sites due to slack market conditions prior to a revival of demand in 1984/85. By 1986 they were all used up. Then all mine output came from byproduct sources.

In addition to the listed countries, Brazil, Bulgaria, France, Italy, W Germany, E Germany and Namibia are also believed to produce bismuth.



21

1.5 1

62

CONSUMPTION

European Community Japan USA


c400 402

1261


Pharmaceuticals and chemicals 50 Manufacturing of parts for machinery 23 Primary metal industry 25 Others 2


Bismuth


n/a n/a -0.6

-6.5 3.4 4.1

$32.5 million (at average 1987 European Free Market prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Antibiotics, magnesia and alumina are alternatives in pharmaceutical uses, mica and fishscales in cosmetics. Tellurium can substitute as a steel additive and plastics are an alternative for bismuth alloys in some castings applications.

However, bismuth's non-toxicity means that it continues to maintain most markets, and to expand into lead and cadmium markets on health grounds.


New uses in bismuth-containing smoke and flame retardants, in electronic applications, plastic stabilisers, paint additives and batteries.

Increasing use of bismuth as an additive in free machining steel and to modify the carbon structure of ductile iron.

63

Bismuth

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

US producer $/lb 2.30 2.30 4.14 6.5 6.5 * New York dealer 99.9% min $/lb 1.57 1.68 4.14 5.06 3.14 3.67

New York dealer real 1987 price 1.61 1.70 4.10 5.04 3.22 3.67

European Free Market $/lb 1.46-1.67 1.66 3.95-4.11 4.77-5.04 1. 95-3.8 2.05-4.8

* list price suspended.

Source: Metal Bulletin.

Mostly producer pricing but dealer market has strong influence on prevailing price.


Production is entirely from by-product sources although deposits exist in Bolivia where bismuth could be mined as sole product should prices rise sufficiently. Most production shipped to major consumers for refining or direct use. Increasingly though, major producing countries are installing their own refining capacity. The role of China as both producer and consumer is increasing in importance.

64

Bismuth


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine n/a c. 400 Metal n/a n/a 638 c. 100

Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal (including alloys) 386 587 1018

(exc. Belgium - Luxembourg)


Australia 10 Canada 4 European Community 58 42 Japan 7 China 2 S Korea 2 Mexico 33 Peru 17 9 Others and undefined 42 73

Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal (including alloys) 77 243.5 82

(exc. Belgium - Luxembourg

and UK))

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal n/a c. 400 402 1261

Import Dependence (metal) Imports as % of consumption 100 81 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 100 79 76


Total world n/a 10 10 31

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a n/a -0.6

65

BORON

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of B203 content and% of total)


Turkey 110 {33) Argentina USA 105 {32) Bolivia

Chile Peru --

Totals 215 (65) Grand Total 330

30 {9)

30 {9)

Centrally Planned

China 30 ( 9) USSR 55 (17)

85 (26)

The B203 content of the total reserve base is 620 million tonnes.

Boron oxide (B203) = 31% contained boron.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 {'000 tonnes of B203 and% of total)


Developed Turkey 318 (32.8) 315 USA 574 (59.3) 815

Total 892 (92.1) 1130

Developing Argentina 28 (2.9) 28 Chile 1 (0.1) n/a Peru 2 (0.2) 5

Total 31 (3.2) 33

Centrally Planned China 5 {0.5) 6 USSR 40 (4.1) 41

Total 45 {4.6) 47

TOTAL 968 1210

66


Static reserve life (years): (B203 content)

340

Ratio of reserve base to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 20 : 1

CONSUMPTION


END USE PATTERNS (%)

USA (1986)

Glass products 59 Chemical fire

retardants 6 Soap & detergents 7 Agricultural &

biological 4 Porcelain & enamel 3 Metallurgical &

nuclear 1 Other 19

1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes B203

c. 400 59

317

Europe (1987)

Glass products Ceramics Agriculture Bleaches Other


26 16

2 37 19


n/a 1.2 3.6

n/a n/a -2.1

Rest of World (1987)

Glass products Ceramics Agriculture Bleaches Other

42 19 8 1

30

$0.6 billion (at average 1987 prices for contained B203).

SUBSTITUTES

Possible in applications such as soaps, detergents, enamel, agriculture and insulation. Environmental concern may hasten substitution.

67

coins)

Boron


Improvement in evaporation of brine solution may widen choice of sources. Production of boric acid through solution mining of colemanite. Substitution of borosilicate glass by plastic materials.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Borax, pentahydrate technical granular bulk ex works $/short ton 201

Real 1987 price 206.6

Borax, pentahydrate UK i/tonne 325.7

201

204

344

208

206.2

344

214

213.2

344

220

225.7

438.8

226

226

448

Products sold principally under contract and list prices give an indication only.


Production is highly concentrated in the USA and Turkey. In the USA there are three producing companies, with one much larger than the other two. The majority of Turkish output is controlled by the state owned Etibank. The main markets are in the industrial countries.

68

105

100

95

90

BORON Granulated borax pentahydrate, technical in bulk Ex works. US$/ short ton.


money terms

I I

I

1-I

I I

I

---

85~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

69

Boron

Boron


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Minerals 1143

(574 B203)

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Minerals 65.6 (a) 155 (a) 29.7 55 Oxide and acid 4.5 16.4 25.8 7.5 (a) Includes crude natural boric acid.


Oxide and Acid EEC 94 17 29 USA 11 73 Yugoslavia 2 China 5 3 USSR 1 6 2 Turkey 4 70 5 70 Others and undefined 6 1

Ore USA 13 USSR 2 Turkey 99 86 94 100 Others 1 1 4

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Oxide and acid 5.2 173 41.6 Refined sodium borates 6.4 565.9

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) c. 80 c. 400 c. 59 647

(317 B203)

70

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Im~ort De~endence

Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 8 Imports as % of consumption


Share of World Consum~tion (%)

Total world c. 8 c. 42 6 33

Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 1.2 3.6

71

coins)

CADMIUM

WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of metal and% of total)


Australia 55 (9.9) Brazi 1 Canada 80 (14.4) India Ireland 15 (2.7) Mexico Japan 10 (1.8) Peru S Africa 35 (6.3) Zaire Spain 20 (3.6) Others USA 90 (16.2) Others 40~)

Totals 345 (62.2) Grand Total 555

5 (0.9) 15 (2.7) 35 (6.3) 25 (4.5) 20 (3.6) 50 (9.0)

---150 (27.0)

Centrally Planned

China Poland USSR

15 (2. 7) 10 (1.8) 35 (6.3)

60 {10.8)

These figures are based primarily on estimated world resources of zinc. The world reserve base on the same basis is 970,000 tonnes and world resources exceed 6 million tonnes. Resources are substantially higher when allowance is made for other cadmium-bearing materials.

WORLD PRODUCTION OF REFINED CADMIUM AT SMELTERS (tonnes of metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages) Note: Cadmium is extracted from ores and concentrates, flue dusts and other

materials, which sometimes include scrap. Statistics on mine production by country are not available.


Australia 910 (4.7) Algeria 126 (0.6) Bulgaria 173 (0.9) Austria 53 (0.3) Argentina 47 (0.2) China 390 (2.0) Belgium 1316 (6.8) Brazil 233 ( 1. 2) E Germany 17 (0.1) Canada 1632 (8.4) India 177 (0.9) N Korea 355 ( 1. 8) Finland 546 (2.8) Mexico 727 (3. 7) Poland 605 (3.1) France 384 (2.0) Namibia 60 (0.3) Romania 55 (0.3) W Germany 1157 (6.0) Peru 406 (2.1) USSR 2725 (14.1) Italy 330 (1. 7) S Korea 453 (2.3) Japan 2512 (13.0) Zaire 330 (1. 7) Netherlands 576 (3.0) Norway 157 (0.8) Spain 257 ( 1.3) Turkey 19 ~0.1) UK 375 1.9) USA 2015 (10.4) Yugoslavia ~__lhi) ----- -----Totals 12508 (64.5) 2559 (13.2) 4320 (22.2) Grand Total 19387

Includes secondary production where known. 72

Cadmium

REFINERY CAPACITY, 1985

World refinery capacity is 24,500 tonnes of which 18% is located in N America, 21% in Japan and a further 10% in Australia, Mexico and Peru. The remainder is mainly in W and E Europe.


Static reserve life (years): 29 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000 (based on zinc reserves alone): 2 : 1

CONSUMPTION



European Community 6084 Japan 1954 United States 4406 Others 1599 Total Western world 14043

Total world 18315

END USE PATTERNS 1986 (%)

USA

Coating Plating 32 Pigments 16 Batteries 29 Plastics & synthetic products 15 Others (including alloys) 8

1.4 -3.8 -2.1 7.4

0.7

UK

Colours Plating anodes & salts Cadmium copper Solder Alloys Miscellaneous (including

batteries)


$81 million (refined metal at average 1987 prices).

73

0.3 9.8 4.7

-2.8 2.2

2.1

55 25 1 2 1

17

Cadmium

SUBSTITUTES

There is increasing environmental pressure to replace cadmium in many of its end uses but lack of suitable alternatives has so far prevented its widespread replacement.

Zinc and aluminium can be substituted for some cadmium electroplating applications. Organotin compounds can be used in plastic stabilisers but at higher cost. Cadmium can be substituted in many alloys by a variety of metals, and inorganic compounds can replace it in paints and pigments. Lead-acid batteries can be used as a substitute for nickel-cadmium batteries but at the cost of reliability and longevity.


Solar energy cells.

Magnetic semiconductors

New forms of batteries.

Increased recovery from secondary sources and restriction on its use for environmental and health reasons could depress primary production.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

European Free Market: (a) Ingots $/lb 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.92 1.77

European Free Market: Ingots - real 1987 prices 0.82 0.91 1.29 0.79 0.94 1.77

US Producer Metal 99.5% $/lb 1.12 1.13 1.69 1.21 1.26 2.02

(a) Source: Metal Bulletin

Combination of producer and free market prices.

Mainly produced as a by-product of zinc smelting and prices tend not to bear a relationship to the supply/demand balance. At times of low prices, penalty clauses are sometimes imposed on zinc concentrates containing cadmium.

74


Wide spread of producers with consumption largely concentrated in industrialised countries.

Cadmium

Environmental pressures are becoming an increasingly important restraint on growth especially in some industrialised countries.

Increased domestic demand in Japan is resulting in changes in marketing patterns.

75

Cadmi urn

CADMIUM European free mkt. Ingots


100

90

80

70

60

50

40~--------~--------~--------~--------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

76


Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refined metal

UK

375

EC(10) Japan

4137 2512

Cadmium

USA

2015

Note: Production in the European Community and Japan is based mainly on imported ores.

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refined metal Wrought metal

Source of Net Imports (%) Australia Canada European Community Finland Japan China Mexico Peru S Korea Zaire Others

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refined metal Wrought metal

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refined metal

987

95

1421

77

1532 144

1985 only 6

47

11 3 9

4 4

10 6

156 78

6084

417

1954

2581

20 44 15 1

12 3 1

62

4406

Cadmium

Import Dependence* Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption

and net exports

Share of World Consumption (%) Western world Total world


UK

69

65

10 8

-0.2

EC(10)

28

27

43 33

1.4

Japan

14 11

-3.8

USA

59

58

31 24

-2.1

*Note: For the European Community and Japan this does not take account of the imported raw materials.

78

CHROMIUM

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes gross weight and% of total}


Finland 17 ( 1. 6) Brazi 1 8 (0.8} Albania 6 (0.6} S Africa 825 (78.1) India 14 ( 1. 3) USSR 130 (12.3} Turkey 5 (0.5} Madagascar 7 (0.7) Others 4 (0.4} Others 2 (0.2} New Caledonia 2 (0.2)

Philippines 14 ( 1.3) Zimbabwe 17 (1. 6) Others _5~) ------

Totals 849 (80.4) 67 (6.3) 140 (13.3} Grand Total 1056

The world reserve base totals approximately 6,880 million tonnes, 95% of which is found in S Africa and Zimbabwe. World resources total approximately 33,000 million tonnes, gross weight.

The above data assume a Cr203 content of 45% for chemical and metallurgical grade deposits and a 32% Cr203 content for refractory grade deposits. The former are usually classed as high-Cr and high Fe-chromite, the latter as high-alumina chromite.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ( 1000 tonnes gross weight and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Finland 560 (5.2) Brazi 1 195 ( 1.8) Albania 838 (7.8} Greece 60 (0.6} India 602 (5.6} Cuba 44 (0.4} Japan 11 (0.1} Iran 50 (0.5} USSR 2970 ( 27. 7} S Africa 3803 (35.5) Madagascar 105 (1.0} Vietnam 15 (0.1} Turkey 594 (5.5) New Caledonia 77 (0.7}

Pakistan 7 ( .. ) Philippines 237 (2.2) Sudan 17 (0.2} Zimbabwe 540 _li_&) ---- -----

Totals 5028 (46.9} 1830 (17.1) 3867 (36.0} Grand Total 10725

79

Chromium

WORLD MINE CAPACITY 1985 ('000 tonnes of contained chromium)


Finland 170 Braz i 1 113 Albania 293 Greece 15 India 172 Cuba 26 Japan 2 Iran 27 USSR 910 S Africa 1325 Madagascar 38 Vietnam 5 Turkey 218 New Caledonia 30

Pakistan 1 Philippines 154 Sudan 9 Zimbabwe 342

Totals 1730 886 1234 Grand Total 3850


Static reserve life (years): 99 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 21 1 approx.

CONSUMPTION



468 441 278

The figures cover the chrome content of all forms.

80


6.5 4.1 0.5

-6.5 -0.6 -9.9


Chromite: intermediate outlets Metallurgical and chemical industry Refractory industry

Ferroalloys and metal

88 12

Stainless and heat-resisting steels 79 Other steels 13 Superalloys 3 Cast irons 2 Other 3


$0.46 billion (as chromite at 1987 average price).

SUBSTITUTES

Chromium

Substitutes deterred by cost, performance or customer appeal for chromium.

Boron, manganese, nickel and molybdenum can be substituted in alloy steels and cast irons. Base metal alloys can sometimes be used in place of stainless steel.

Dolomite is an alternative for some refractory bricks. Cadmium yellow is one of several alternative pigments, and nickel and zinc ores are possible substitutes for decorative coating protection.


Changing steel technology is reducing the use of chromite refractories.

Increased chromium recovery through prereduction of chromite with solid fuels.

81

Chromium

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Ore, Transvaal 44% Cr203 no ratio $/tonne 53.9 53.9 53.9 45.3 41.0 42.5

Ore. Transv aa 1 Real 1987 prices 55.3 54.7 53.6 44.8 42.1 42.5

Ore, Turkish 48% Cr203 3:1 ratio $/tonne 110 110 110 112.25 125 107.5

Metal, US Electrolytic 99.1% Cr $/lb 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.54 3.45

Ferrochrome, US producer charge 66-70% (3% Si, 5-6.5% C, 66-70% Cr) cents/lb 53 43 46.7 54 54 53.5

Most ore is sold on long term contracts but there is a small free market.


Ore production is increasingly highly concentrated with large state (e.g. USSR, Etibank in Turkey) and private interests (e.g. S Africa). Some ore producers are linked with ferroalloy companies but only two firms (Outokumpo Oy of Finland and Middleburg Steel and Alloys of S Africa) are totally vertically integrated from chromite mining to stainless steel production. There is a growing trend towards steel industry use of lower grade ferrochrome and towards production of ferrochrome near mines. Ferrochrome production in USA and Europe has become increasingly uncompetitive.

The concentration of chromium production and reserves in S Africa and the USSR has led to fears over future security of supplies.

82

130

120

110

100

CHROMIUM Ore Transvaal44% Cr ,03


real 1987r, -- erms -.....

money terms

..........

Chromium

904---------~------~~------~---------r--------, 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

83

Chromium


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Chromite Ore (gross) 60 11 Ferrochromes (gross) and metal 145 318 97.5

(exc. metal) Ferrochrome and metal (Cr content) 84 184 60.4

( exc. meta 1)

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)

Chromite ore (gross) 138 600 (a) 829 409 Ferrochromes (gross) 86 522 (a) 345 326

(a) Excluding UK


Chromite Fin 1 and 3 S Africa 79 53 56 71 Turkey 12 4 Albania 27 8 2 USSR 2 5 2 India 11 Madagascar 1 10 New Caledonia 4 Philippines 3 2 7 Others 21 2 1

84

Chromium

UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Ferrochrome (= 58% contained chromium) European Community 19 2 3 Finland 7 Norway 1 S Africa 40 51 63 60 Spain 4 2 Sweden 23 5 2 Turkey 1 1 11 Yugoslavia 3 5 USSR 2 Albania 4 Braz i 1 2 7 3 India 1 7 Philippines 1 11 Zimbabwe 12 12 8 11 Others 1 9 2 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Chromite (gross) 0.3 10.4 0.5 89.9

(inc. re-exports) Ferrochrome (gross) 1.45 38.7 4.5 7.4

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Chromite ore (gross) 138 650 839 448 Ferrochromes (gross) 85 628 658 330 Total consumption (Cr content) 90 468 441 278


Import Dependence (chromite) Imports as % of consumption 100 92 99 91 Imports as % of consumption



Consumption Growth (% p.a.)

1970s -4.8 6.5 4.1 0.5

85

COBALT

WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of contained cobalt and% of total)


Australia 25 (0. 7) Brazi 1 5 (0.1) USSR 135 (3.8) Canada 45 (1. 2) Botswana 10 (0.3) Cuba 1025 (28.5) Finland 25 (0. 7) India 18 (0.5) Greece 15 (0.4) Indonesia 180 (5.0) S Africa 20 (0.6) New Caledonia 225 (6.2) Yugoslavia 10 (0.3) Philippines 135 (3.8)

Zaire 1360 (37.8) Zambia 360 (10.0)

--- Zimbabwe _2~) -----Tot a 1 s 140 (3.9) 2295 (63.8) 1160 (32.3) Grand Total 3595

The world's estimated reserve base is 8.2 million tonnes with, in addition to the above countries, deposits in the USA, Guatemala, Peru, Morocco, Uganda and Papua New Guinea. Identified world resources total 11 million tonnes of cobalt with millions of tonnes of potential resources also contained in seabed nodules.

86

Cobalt

WORLD MINE AND METAL PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITIES, 1985 (tonnes of metal and % of total)

Mine Metal

P d t. % of ro uc lon Product ion Capacity P d t. % of ro uc lon Production Capacity

Develo2ed Australia 855 (3.0) 2040 (-) Canada 2278 (7.9) 6350 2005 (7.5) 2720 Finland 953 (3.3) 1360 1450 (5.4) 1815 France 104 (0.4) 1495 Japan 1307 (4.9) 2995 Norway 1608 (6.0) 1815 S Africa 455 455 USA 910

Total 4086 (14.2) 10205 6474 (24.1) 12205

Develo2ing Botswana 220 (0.8) 320 Brazil 125 (0.4) n/a New Caledonia 687 (2.4) 320 Philippines 500 (1. 7) 1270 Zaire 12578 (43.6) 10890 11133 ( 41.4) 16785 Zambia 5780 (20.1) 4535 4350 (16.2) 4990 Zimbabwe 100 (0.3) 90 91 (0.3) ...Bl2_

Total 19990 (69.3) 17425 15574 (57.9) 21775

Centrall~ Planned Albania 590 (2.0) n/a Cuba 1413 (4.9) 3175 USSR 2765 (9.6) 3175 4855 (18. 0) 4535

Total 4768 (16.5) 6350 4855 (18.0) 4535

TOTAL 28844 33980 26903 38515

A number of other countries mine cobalt-containing ores but data are inadequate for reliable estimates to be made. Where possible data cover cobalt recovered rather than the content of ore raised.


Static reserve life (years): 99 (land only) Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 8.6 : 1 (land only)

87

Cobalt

CONSUMPTION


United States


c. 5000 1687

6346 (a)


0.2 0.7

n/a -5.0

(metal only) -1.0

(a) Reported consumption. Apparent consumption is higher at 7499, excluding GSA purchases.

END USE PATTERNS, 1986

USA

Superalloys Magnetic alloys Cutting & wear-resistant

materials Chemical & ceramic use Others (mainly alloy steels,

non-ferrous alloys & welding materials)

45 12

5 30

8

Japan

Speciality steels Magnetic a 11 oys Cutting materials Catalysts Others


$0.38 billion (refined metal at 1987 free market price).

SUBSTITUTES

25 21 14 15 25

There are few effective substitutes for most major end uses of cobalt. The trend is towards reduction of, rather than elimination of cobalt in alloys, eg: iron-base, heat-resistant alloys for cobalt-base materials in turbine applications.

In less demanding applications, nickel- and ferrite-magnets are among the alternatives for permanent magnets. In catalytic applications, molybdenum and aluminium are complements and nickel and tungsten together are substitutes. Nickel, vanadium, chromium or tungsten alloys may, in time, replace those containing cobalt as the binder in cemented carbides. Nickel may be substituted for cobalt in several applications but only with a loss of effectiveness.

88

Cobalt


Exploitation of cobalt-bearing manganese nodules. Recovery of cobalt from tailings, dumps. Improved scrap recovery.

Use of cobalt alloy coatings on video recording tape and on computer diskettes.

Substitution of ceramic components for those currently fabricated from superalloys.

PRICES

Metal European Free Market 99.5% Co

1982

$/lb 8.2


Source: Metal Bulletin

1983

5.7

5.79

1984

10.35

10.38

1985

11.32

11.20

1986

7.0

7.2

1987

6.46

6.46

Mainly produced as a by-product of copper or nickel and output is relatively independent of supply/demand balance. Until 1981 prices were mainly producer contracts, but slack demand led to substantial discounting, and from 1982 the market was dominated by spot purchases at merchants' terms. Producers reasserted their control in early 1984 but it broke down again temporarily in 1986 before being restored in 1987. Political disturbances, especially in Africa, can have a dramatic effect on price.


Zaire's Gecamines is the major producer and can strongly influence price and supply through varying production, even though by-product, and by stockpiling. In reality, oversupply in recent years has meant that movements in free market prices have tended to dominate pricing structures. USSR and Cuba are important producers and Canadian nickel producers make sizeable sales. Deep sea mining is a remote potential threat to market structure. Strategic metal importance. A Cobalt Development Institute promotes the use of cobalt and serves as an information centre for the metal.

89

Cobalt

COBALT Metal European Free Mkt. 99.5% co


180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80~--------~------~~------~---------r------~

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

90

Cobalt

SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN MAIN MARKET AREAS

UK EC( 10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine output Secondary recovery n/a n/a n/a 476 Primary metal 1307

(exc. UK (from imported & Belgian ores & matte processing from of imported Australia, materials) Philippines

& N Caledonia) Chemicals 1201

Net Imeorts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal (unwrought) 1776 4057(a) 2203 6414 Oxide 450 713 238 172 Other forms n/a n/a n/a 614

(inc. matte)

Total all above forms (Co content) 2109 c. 5000 2379 6802 (a) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg

Source of Net Imeorts (%)

Metal and Oxide All forms Canada 23 14 1 22 European Community 57 10 11 (mainly ex Zaire & Canada) Finland 3 10 2 5 Japan 1 3 Norway 1 5 7 12 S Africa 2 1 USA 3 6 2 Botswana 1 Zaire 3 43 65 18 Zambia 1 16 11 26 Others 9 3 1 1

(allowing for raw materials Zaire's overall share is c. 55%)

91

Cobalt

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal (unwrought) 535 273(a) 479 Oxides 516 225(a) 18 (a) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) All forms Co content c. 1100 c. 5000 c. 3650 6346

(metal (reported) 1687) 7499

(apparent)

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption

(exc. scrap) 100 100 100 100 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports (exc. scrap) 100 100 100 100

Share of World Consumption (%) Western world (approx.) 5 25 18 35

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -0.5 0.2 0.7

92

COPPER

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of contained copper and% of total)

Developed

Australia Canada S Africa USA Others

Totals Grand Total

8 (2.4) 17 (5.0) 3 (0.9)

57 (16.9) 13 (3.9)

---98 (29.1)

Developing

Chile 79 (23.4) Mexico 17 (5.0) Papua New Guinea 6 (1.8) Peru 12 (3.6) Philippines 12 (3.6) Zaire 26 (7.7) Zambia 30 (8.9) Others _1Q~)

202 (59.9) 337

Centrally Planned

Poland USSR Others

7 (2.1) 24 {7.1) 6 {1.8)

37 {11.0)

The reserve base is 566 million tonnes. Total land based resources are estimated at 1,600 million tonnes with possibly another 700 million tonnes in deep sea nodules.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION {'000 tonnes of contained copper and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 253 {3.0) Chile 1378 {16.4) Bulgaria 79 {0.9) Canada 741 (8.8) Indonesia 92 {1.1) China 200 (2.4) Finland 27 (0.3) Mexico 180 (2.1) Mongolia 138 {1.6) Japan 39 {0.5) Namibia 49 (0.6) Poland 434 (5.1) S Africa 204 (2.4) Papua New USSR 1030 {12.2) Spain 57 {0.7) Guinea 177 {2.1) Others 74 {0.9) Sweden 90 ( 1.1) Peru 394 (4.7) USA 1127 {13.4) Philippines 220 {2.6) Yugoslavia 117 (1.4) Zaire 502 {6.0) Others 51 {0.6) Zambia 512 {6.1)

---- Others 261 _fl..!l:J ----Totals 2706 {32.1) 3765 {44.7) 1955 {23.2) Grand Total 8426

93

Copper

WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION ( 1000 tonnes metal and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 190 ( 1. 9) Brazil 134 (1.4) Albania 11 (0.1) Austria 33 (0.3) Chile 913 (9.3) Bulgaria 74 (0.8) Belgium 413 (4.2) Egypt 3 ( .. ) China 320 (3.3) Canada 497 (5.1) India 32 (0.3) Czecho-Finland 61 (0.6) Iran 12 (0.1) slovakia 26 (0.3) France 43 (0.4) S Korea 158 ( 1. 6) E Germany 71 (0. 7) W Germany 418 (4.3) Mexico 99 ( 1. 0) Hungary 23 (0.2) Italy 66 (0.7) Oman 14 (0.1) N Korea 39 (0.4) Japan 940 (9.6) Peru 226 (2.3) Poland 388 (4.0) Norway 31 (0.3) Philippines 134 ( 1.4) Romania 43 (0.4) Portuga 1 5 ( .. ) Taiwan 49 (0.5) USSR 1400 (14.3) S Africa 144 (1. 5) Zaire 223 (2.3) Spain 153 (1.6) Zambia 499 (5.1) Sweden 75 (0.8) Zimbabwe 24 (0.2) Turkey 68 (0.7) UK 126 ( 1. 3) USA 1458 (14.9) Yugoslavia 138 .J.hi) ----Totals 4859 (49.7) 2520 (25.8) 2395 (24.5) Grand Total 9774

The table includes metal refined from scrap.

94

WORLD MINE AND METAL CAPACITIES ('000 tonnes of metal)

Mine 1985 Refinery 1986 (a)

Developed Australia 258 205 Canada 969 600 Japan 62 1186 S Africa 221 136 USA 1288 1557 Others 421 1865

Total 3219 5549

Developing Chile 1339 885 Mexico 263 120 Papua New Guinea 167 Peru 422 360 Philippines 340 138 Zaire 628 310 Zambia 724 819 Others 593 640

Total 4476 3272

Centrally Planned China, N Korea & Mongolia 450 360 USSR 660 1100 Other E Europe 700 BOO

Total 1810 2260

TOTAL 9505 11081

(a) Effective capacity - excludes mines where no copper was produced.

SECONDARY PRODUCTION: WESTERN WORLD ('000 tonnes metal 1985/86 Averages)

European Community Japan USA Others

Total

Production of Secondary Refined

Copper

439 125 393 204

1161

Direct Scrap used by

Manufacturers

766 518 822 562

2668

Copper

95

Copper



CONSUMPTION OF REFINED METAL

40

2.6 1 (land based only)

'000 tonnes % p.a. growth rates 1985/86 Averages 1960-70 1970-80 1980-86

European Cormnunity 2249 2.3 1.3 -0.5 Japan 1225 10.4 4.9 0.9 USA 2039 4.3 2.0 Others 2029 4.9 5.0 -1.4 Tota 1 Western world 7542 4.3 2.3 1.4

Total world 9889 4.4 2.7 1.2


USA (a) Japan w Europe

Electrical 23 44 52 Construction 41 21 24 General engineering 14 16 10 Transport 13 11 4 Mi see 11 aneous 10 7 10

Source: I WCC (a) Building wire etc included in construction rather than electrical

use.


$17.3 billion (refined metal at 1987 average price).

SUBSTITUTES

Vulnerable to substitutes on price grounds, technical superiority, or weight both directly (eg: aluminium in electrical uses and car radiators, optical fibres in telecommunications or plastics in plumbing), or indirectly (eg: aluminium or plastics for brass). Miniaturisation of components is also important. Not all substitution is, however, one way: copper can hold its own in many major uses.

96

Copper


Possible source in deep sea nodules in the next century. Expansion of in situ leaching, and electrochemical processing methods. Uses in solar energy and marine applications (ships' cladding and fish farming).

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Electrol~tic wire bar

US Producer ¢/lb delivered 74.3 79.3 68.2 66.6 66.43 82.49 LME Cash (a) ¢/lb 67.2 72.3 62.5 64.9 62.35 80.11 (£/tonne) 846.4 1049.0 1032.7 1104.4 937.1 1067.90 LME Cash (¢/lb) Real 1987 price 68.96 73.4 62.1 64.2 4.01 80.11 LME Range £/tonne 740-911 940-1123 977-1270 951-1113 873-1027 869-1715

(a) Quotation covers cathode, higher grade.

Most copper is sold through annual supply contracts but producer pricing tends to operate in protected markets such as Japan, S Korea, Taiwan and India and in major producing nations like Australia, Canada and S Africa. US producers sell partly on a list basis. Elsewhere, prices are linked to LME, or to a lesser extent Comex, prices which fluctuate markedly. Even in other markets the LME price exerts a major influence.

Copper prices respond rapidly to changes in demand and stocks. They can also be sensitive to world financial and political events.


Around 400 mines but far fewer companies. Over 50% of production is under state ownership or control.

CIPEC, a governmental organization - Chile, Peru, Zaire, Zambia, Indonesia with Papua New Guinea, Yugoslavia and Australia as associates - aims to coordinate measures to raise copper earnings, but largely ineffective to date in face of oversupply, structure of copper industry and internal conflicts of interest.

97

Copper

110

100

90

80

COPPER LME cash


m~------~--------~------~--------~-------, 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

98

Copper


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Cu content) Mine 0.6 2.1 39.1 1126.5 Smelter 359.9 947.4 1194.6

of which Secondary 203.8 124.5 268.9 Refined 125.5 1064.8 939.5 1457.9

of which Secondary 62.4 222.2 123.9 Direct scrap used by

manufacturers 133 766 518 822 (exc. Denmark)

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Cu content) Ores and concentrates 153.8 828.6 11.7 Blister 72.5 472.0 31.1 39.0 Refined 255.6 1283.7 314.3 436.4 Total 328.1 1909.5 1174.0 487.1

Source of Net Imports (%) Ores and Concentrates Norway 6 Canada 2 29 11 USA 13 S Africa 2 Australia 1 7 5 Botswana 47 Chile 12 11 Mexico 24 2 Peru 3 3 10 Indonesia 8 Malaysia 4 Philippines 10 Papua New Guinea 33 9 Poland 7 Others 11 2 17 Blister European Community 14 1 Canada 1 1 4 Sweden 6 S Africa (inc. Namibia) 9 12 3 Chile 25 11 6 64 Mexico 1 30 Peru 42 12 90 1 Zaire 49 Others 8 7 1

99

Copper

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Refined Australia 12 5 4 Canada 21 7 38 European Community 12 2 S Africa 1 6 3 2 Spain 5 4 Sweden 4 1 USA 2 1 4 Chile 17 31 16 35 Peru 10 7 8 10 Philippines 17 Zaire 11 7 Zambia 7 12 46 5 Zimbabwe 1 Poland 1 8 USSR 1 1 Others 6 6 3 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Cu content) Ores and concentrates 0.6 0.9 0.3 145.3 Blister 0.6 0.5 9.3 17.0 Refined 14.8 90.4 55.9 32.7 Total 16.0 91.8 65.5 195.0

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Cu content) Refined including secondary but not direct scrap 343.1 2249.3 1225.1 2038.8

Import Dependence (%) Imports as % of consumption 95 85 96 24 Imports as % of consumption



Total refined: Western world 5 30 16 27 Total world 3 23 12 21

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -1.9 1.6 5.0 0.6

100

FLUORSPAR

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes contained fluorspar and% of total)


France 6 (2. 7) Kenya 2 (0.9) China 17 (7.6) Italy 6 (2. 7) Mexico 20 (9.0) Mongolia 50 (22.4) S Africa 29 (13.0) Morocco 1 (0.4) USSR 62 (27.8) Spain 6 (2. 7) Thailand 1 (0.4) Others 12 (5.4) UK 2 (0.9) Tunisia 1 (0.4) USA 1 (0.4) Others 4 (1.8) Others 3 (1.3) --- ---Totals 53 (23.8) 29 (13.0) 141 (63.2) Grand Total 223

Pure fluorspar, CaF2, contains 51% calcium and 49% fluoride. Three principal grades are available commercially; acid grade with 97%+ CaF2; ceramic grade 85-96% CaF2; and metallurgical grade 60%+ CaF2. The above reserve figures refer to 100% CaF2 equivalent. On the same basis, the reserve base is 305 million tonnes.

In addition fluorspar is extracted from phosphate rock. Total world reserves are estimated at 330 million tonnes of fluorspar equivalent.

101

Fluorspar

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 1 1985/86 1 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 1 1985 ('000 tonnes gross weight and% of production)

Mine Production Acid & Metallurgical Total % of Capacity Ceramic Grade Grade Production

DeveloQed France 160 75 235 (4.9) 290 W Germany 74 10 84 (1. 7) 100 Italy 93 56 149 (3.1) 180 S Africa 313 32 341 (7.1) 680 Spain 265 34 303 (6.3) 320 UK 65 85 150 (3.1) 345 USA 65 65 ( 1.4) 73 Others 7 7 (0.1) n/a

Total 1035 299 1334 (27.7) 1988

DeveloQing Argentina 7 18 25 (0.5) 36 Braz i 1 43 30 73 ( 1. 5) 73 India 11 5 16 (0.3) 27 Kenya 54 54 (1.1) 90 Mexico 422 326 748 (15.6) 1100 Morocco 78 78 ( 1. 6) 73 Thailand 23 210 233 (4.8) 270 Tunisia 39 39 (0.8) 45 Others 4 4 (0.1) n/a

Total 677 593 1270 (26.4) 1714

Centrall~ Planned China 100 550 650 (13.5) 545 Czechos 1 ov ak i a 48 48 96 (2.0) 100 E Germany 25 75 100 (2.1) 100 Mongolia 740 740 {15.4) 725 N Korea 40 40 (0.8) 45 Romania 20 20 (0.4) 27 USSR 270 290 560 (11.6) 545

Total 443 1763 2206 (45.9) 2087

TOTAL 2155 2655 4810 5789

Note: The split between production of acid and metallurgical grade is partly estimated.

102

Fluorspar


Static reserve life (years) Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:

Fluorine in fluorspar: 57

3. 7 : 1 Fluorine in fluorspar:

CONSUMPTION


European Community Japan United States (apparent)

868 549 569

Reported US consumption is 520,000 tonnes.

END USE PATTERNS, 1986 (%)

Steel production Primary aluminium production) Chemicals ) Glass, enamel and other uses

USA

22* 73

5

* Higher proportion in many other countries.


$0.6 billion (at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES


-0.4 -0.5 -2.5

Japan

37 11 16 36

0.2 5.1

-9.2

Some substitution possible in steelmaking but rarely totally satisfactory.

Gaseous hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide in aerosol propellants.

103

Fluorspar


Conservation in the steel industry, recycling, changing technology in the aluminium industry and environmental concern over fluorocarbons in propellants are reducing demand. Developments in industrial and medical applications will only partly offset these reductions.

Further exploration of phosphate rock as source of fluorspar in the USA.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

US prices, fob Illinois $/net ton

Metallurgical pellets 70% CaF2 110 133 125 125 125 125 Ceramic grade, 88-90% CaF2 100 100 100 100 100 100 Acid grade, 97% CaF2 184.4 184.3 174.75 173 173 173 Acid grade Real 1987 price 189.2 187.1 173.6 171.2 177.6 173

Mainly producer pricing.


Although there are a large number of small firms participating in fluorspar mining, world production is dominated by large companies (eg: eight companies account for most of the Mexican production; PUK dominates French output).

104

Fluorspar

FWORSPAR Acid Grade 97% CaF2


110

105 rea/7987 - _ terrns --~----~'

money terms '~

100

95

90~--------~------~~------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

105

Fluorspar

SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN MAIN MARKET AREA

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Gross 150 618 65 Fluorspar equivalent from

phosphate rock 119

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Acid grade more than 97% CaF2 15.9 111.4 549 391 Met grade less than 97% CaF2 3.4 184.6 111 Fluorspar equivalent from

hydrofluoric acid & cryolite 174


Acid Grade All Grades European Community 2 S Africa 39 14 42 Spain 15 7 China 63 E Germany 4 Kenya 9 1 Mexico 9 7 43 Morocco 16 4 Thailand 15 Others and undefined 8 1

Other grades European Community 7 S Africa 15 Spain 25 China 16 7 E Germany 1 Mexico 93 6 92 Tunisia 5 Others and undefined 32 1

106

Fluorspar

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Acid grade 6.1 17.2 n/a 7.4 Other grades 0.2 12.1 n/a Total 6.3 29.3 7.4

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Acid grade 393 Other grades 127

All forms (inc. hydrofluoric acid, etc) 163 868 549 569





Total world 3 18 11 12

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -2.5

107

GALLIUM

WORLD RESERVES

Most gallium is recovered as a by-product of the extraction of alumina from bauxite, with recovery from the smelting of zinc ores as the second major source. Gallium's nature as a by-product, and the protective patents covering the recovery process prevent any precise measurement of reserves. Nonetheless the world's bauxite reserves are estimated to contain over 100,000 tonnes of gallium, and zinc resources 6,500 tonnes. Only a small percentage though is economically recoverable.

WORLD PRODUCTION

Estimated world production of both primary and recovered gallium averaged some 40 tonnes in 1985/86. Recycled gallium makes up about one-third of total supply. Detailed production data are not available but Japan is the largest world producer with total output in 1986 estimated at 19 tonnes. Other major producers are France and Germany (production capacity of 15 tonnes + 5 tonnes respectively), the USA and Canada (production capacity of 9 tonnes + 5 tonnes respectively each although output currently negligible), plus China (production capacity 8 tonnes) and Hungary (production capacity 3 tonnes). A number of countries are in the process of expanding production capacity, and total output is growing rapidly (primary output alone of 50 tonnes in 1987).


Very large because of substantial resources of bauxite and zinc. Any supply bottleneck would be caused by the available processing capability.

CONSUMPTION

1985/86 Averages % p.a. growth rates (kilograms) 1970s 1980-86

European Community n/a n/a n/a Japan 34000 n/a n/a United States 11718 21.4 10.5


Electronics (including light emitting diodes and semiconductors) 93

Research and development 7 Others

108

Gallium


$21 million approximately (at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Liquid crystals made from organic compounds are used in visual display panels as substitutes for light emitting diodes. Silicon and germanium compete with gallium in many semiconductor applications.


Gallium could be recovered from coal ash and coal, and extracted from polymetallic ores by leaching.

Increasing use in gallium based electronic devices and in equipment converting solar energy to electricity.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

US Metal $/kg 630 525 525 525 525

US Metal Real 1987 price 647 533 522 520 539

Prices are listed by producers, but discounting is common.


1987

525

525

Only a handful of companies extract ga 11 i um in the main metals processing countries.

109

Gallium

125

120

115

110

105

100

GALLIUM US metal


'----/

95~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

110


Production (1985/86 Averages) (kg) Primary Recycled

(a) 1986 only

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (kg) (a) Gallium, thallium and indium

Source of Net Imports (%) Canada China European Community Switzerland USA Hungary Others

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (kg) (a) Gallium, thallium and indium

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (kg)

Import Dependence (%) Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption

and net exports

Share of World Consumption (%) Total world


UK

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

111

EC ( 10)

n/a n/a

40500 (a)

2 6

75 2

14

260000 (a)

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Japan

10000 9500

n/a

34000

n/a

n/a

c. 60

n/a

Gallium

USA

750 (a) n/a

12582

57 39

3

n/a

11718

100

n/a

c. 21

21.4

GERMANIUM

WORLD RESERVES

Germanium is obtained as a by-product of zinc or copper-zinc ores. No reliable data are available for the reserves of large tracts of the world. The US Bureau of Mines estimates the combined reserves of Canada, the United States, Europe and Africa at 2,150 tonnes, with substantial reserves also available in Centrally Planned economies.

Very large potential resources are contained in certain coals, and germanium might be recovered from ash and flue dusts.

WORLD PRODUCTION

Because of its by-product nature no data are available for mine production of germanium, but refinery production is estimated as follows:

(tonnes of contained germanium and % of total 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Austria European Community Japan USA Totals

5 (6)

27 (34} 10 ( 12) .IT _ill_) 64 ( 79)

Centrally Planned

Total 17 (21)

17 (21)

EC: Belgium, France, Germany and Italy in that order.

Refinery capacity is 245 tonnes, 50% of which is in W Europe.

Total

80

Data are not available on output from Zaire, one of the main sources of ore.


Static reserve life (years): large Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: large

112

CONSUMPTION



(a) Metal and oxide.

31 18.5 (a) 38


Infra-red systems Fibre optics Semiconductors Detectors Others

VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL

$85 million (at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

65 12

5 5

13

Germanium


n/a 2.1 4.0

n/a n/a 2.9

Silicon has replaced germanium in some electronic applications but not in high-frequency or high-power applications. In infra-red guidance systems zinc selenide or germanium glass can substitute for germanium metal but at the expense of performance.


Substitute materials could become available for fibre optic applications. Development of superior alternative in some electronic or electrical uses. Recovery from coal ash and flue dusts.

113

Germanium

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

$/kg

US Producer 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060

US Producer Real 1987 prices 1088 1076 1053 1049 1088 1060

By-product of zinc, and certain copper-zinc ores, extracted in refining. Mainly producer priced with small dealer market.


Belgium refines germanium from Zairois ores. There are relatively few producers and consumers. Commercial availability is governed by rate at which germanium-bearing materials are processed and refined. There is some speculative activity.

114

104

102

GERMANIUM US producer


1\ I \

I \ I \

I \ I \

I \

Germanium

I \ I \\

100-+------...... ~,-----~~ ..... -----....a money terms

\ I \-... I ------1

98

96~------~--------~------~--------r-------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

115

Germanium


UK

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine Refinery c.

Net ImEorts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Metal 10.5

+ large imports of germanium products

(a) Exc. Belgium-Luxembourg

Source of Net ImEorts (%) European Community Japan USA China Costa Rica USSR Others

Net ExEorts (1985/86 Averages)

80

20

(tonnes) 4.5 Metal

(a) Exc. Belgium-Luxembourg

ConsumEtion (1985/86 Averages)

EC(10)

27

9 (a)

11 56 28

5

5.5 (a)

Japan

9.55

2.9

3

3 80

14

(tonnes) 6 31 (a) 18.5 (apparent) (apparent) (inc. oxide)

(a) Partly for germanium compounds for export)

ImEort DeEendence

USA

n/a 22

10.5

37

49 5

9

n/a

38

Imports as % of consumption 100 29 22 28 (nearer 100 if

allowance made for raw materials)

Imports as % of consumption and net exports 100 25 22 n/a

Share of World ConsumEtion (%) Total world n/a n/a n/a n/a

ConsumEtipn Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 2.1 4.0

116

GOLD

WORLD RESERVES (tonnes of metal and% of total)


Australia 715 (1.8) Brazil 715 (1.8) Canada 1305 (3.3) Ghana 220 (0.5) Japan 310 (0.8) Philippines 560 ( 1.4) S Africa 23640 (59.4) Zimbabwe 310 (0.8) USA 2490 (6.2) Other America 1460 (3. 7) Europe 250 (0.6) Other Africa 310 (0.8)

Pacific 780 ( 1.9) Other Asia 310 ..JQ.J!) ----

Totals 28710 (72.1) 4665 (11.7) Grand Total 39815

Centrally Planned

USSR Others

6220 (15.6) 220 (0.6)

6440 (16.2)

The estimated reserve base is 46345 tonnes, with resources estimated at 74,650 tonnes. These figures should be treated with caution as exploitation of gold deposits is heavily price-dependent. In addition above ground stocks of previously mined gold, held by both central banks and privately, are substantial.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (tonnes of metal and % of tot a 1 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 66.8 (4.2) Brazil 69.9 (4.4) China 63.0 (3.9) Canada 98.8 (6.2) Chile 18.7 ( 1. 2) N Korea 5.0 (0.3) Japan 11.5 (0.7) Colombia 26.8 (1. 7) USSR 273.0 (17.1) S Africa 656.5 (41.0) Dominican R 9.8 (0.6) Others 2.5 (0.2) Spain 4.4 (0.3) Ghana 11.8 (0. 7) USA 93.8 (5.9) Mexico 8.2 (0.5) Yugoslavia 4.4 (0.3) P New Guinea 33.7 (2.1) Others 7.7 (0.5) Peru 10.9 (0.7)

Philippines 38.6 (2.4) Venezuala 13.5 (0.8) Zimbabwe 14.8 (0.9) Others 56.8~) ---- ----

Totals 943.9 (59.0) 313.5 (19.6) 343.5 (21.5) Grand Total 1600.9

117

Gold

PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (Major Producers) (tonnes of metal}


Australia (a) 120 Brazil Canada 95 S Africa 720 USA 85 Totals 1020

(a) Includes Papua New Guinea

Centrally Planned

75 USSR 285

75 285

The combined capacity of all other gold-producing nations amounts to 285 tonnes, giving a total world gold mine production capacity of 1665 tonnes.


Based on demand for fabricated gold - i.e. excluding monetary and 'investment' uses. World bullion stocks are ignored. These will make up any shortfalls between mined output and demand.


25

2.5 : 1

OVERALL BALANCES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE WESTERN WORLD

(tonnes) 1984

Mine Production 1160 Net Trade with Centrally Planned Economics 205 Net Official Sales 85 Net Official Purchases Scrap 284

Available Supplies 1734 Fabricated gold in Developed Countries 845 Fabricated gold in Less Developed Countries 619 Bullion Holdings (excluding Europe and N America) 332

Net Implied Investment {disinvestment) in Europe and N America (62}

Source: Consolidated Goldfields

118

1985 1986

1233 1281 210 402

135 181 299 465

1607 1967 841 1072 626 594

310 220

(170) 81

INDUSTRIAL USAGE OF GOLD IN THE WESTERN WORLD (excludes coins)

Jewellery Electronics Dentistry Other industrial and

decorative uses

Total of which:

European Community Japan United States Other countries

(a) Including scrap (b) Excluding scrap


1112 (a) 119 52

50

1333

377 146 163 647



Jewellery Electronics Dentistry Other industrial and

decorative uses Coins and small items

for investment

USA

47 20 6

11

15


-4.1 (b) 13.9 (a) 0.6 4.4 4.5 -3.9

2.2 -1.4

-4.2 10.7

-1.0 7.0 2.2 14.1

-2.6 2.8 -8.1 15.5

Japan EEC Other Western Countries

30 84 83 21 6 1 5 5 1

5 3 1

39* 1 13

* Abnormally high percentage due to issue of special coin to commemorate 60th anniversary of accession to the imperial throne of Japan of Emperor Hirohito.



$21 billion (at average 1987 prices).

119

coins)

Gold

SUBSTITUTES

Platinum and palladium substitute to some extent but use is influenced by price relationships and established consumer preference for gold. Silver can substitute but is more subject to corrosion. Gold-plated palladium and bright tin-nickel can be used in electronics. Titanium- and chromium-base alloys can be used in dental work.

High prices in 1979-1981 encouraged substitutes, particularly base metals clad with gold alloy in electronics/electrical industry and in jewellery products. No metal or alloy substitute has all gold's properties, and emphasis is on reduction of gold content rather than substitution.


New gold dissolution methods and better media for solvent or resin extraction could improve production technology and utilisation of lower grade sources.

PRICES

London fixing am $/troy oz

Real 1987 price

1982 1983

375.9 424.5

385.8 430.9

1984 1985 1986

360.5 317.4 367.8

358.2 314.2 377.6

1987

414.2

414.2

Above ground stocks of gold are very high and willingness to add to or release from these stocks determines the state of the market. Prices can be heavily influenced by emotion with consequent irrational behaviour.


S Africa and USSR produce more than 75% of world's output and at times are thought to cooperate to maintain world prices. The state of Russian economy tends to dictate its sales and IMF auctions plus selling from Central Bank stockpiles have in the past supplemented supply. Speculative activity, particularly in response to political tension, has in the past transformed the market in very short time. Demand for investment related to inflationary expectations, or level of real interest rates, and exchange rates.

120

GOLD London AM fixing price


110

100

90

80

m~------~--------~------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

121

coins)


Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production Metal (inc. scrap)

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates Unwrought metal (inc. semi-

manufactures)

Waste and scrap

Unwrought refined bullion

UK

n/a

1.5

40

162.5

(for monetary purposes) 405 Data exclude gold imported in foreign coins.


A 11 forms (a) Australia Canada European Community S Africa Sweden Switzerland United States USSR Bolivia Brazi 1 Chile Dominican Republic Hong Kong Papa New Guinua Phil ilppines Singapore Uruguay Venezuela Others (including secret)

2 10 46

8 2 9

7

6

1

9

EC(lO)

2.6 n/a

n/a

427

1

31

35 16 4

3 4

6

Japan

11.5 46.5

USA

93.8 119

n/a 1.16

402 313.55

6 2

22 7

26 29

6

2

(refined bullion 58.16

(inc. dore & precipitates)

1 48 13 1

17

2 1 2 3 3

8 1 2

(a) UK figures exclude unwrought refined bullion transactions.

122

coins)

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes)

UK

Unwrought metal 8 Wrought metal Waste and scrap 14

EC{lO)

68 4 4

Japan

0.2 4.9

Gold

USA

94.3

39.1 Note: In addition, the UK exported 447.5 bullion used for monetary purposes.

tonnes of unwrought refined

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Reported figures

Consolidated Goldfields' figures

n/a n/a

26 377

238 92.9 (includes (industry

investment) & the arts)

146 163 (includes Ireland)

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption

and net exports

Share of World Consumption (%) (based on Consolidated Goldfields' figures) Western world

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s on reported figures

1970s on Consolidated Goldfields' figures

Because of gold's monetary role, its use as an investment medium, and the small share of newly mined output in total supply, import shares mean very little.

2 28

+0.2 -1.0

123

11

6.6

2.2

12

-5.3 (industry

& the arts)

-2.6

INDIUM

WORLD RESERVES

Indium is recovered principally as a by-product of processing zinc ores but it is also present in some copper, lead and tungsten ores. Precise data on reserves are unavailable as the distribution of indium in zinc ores varies considerably but, based on zinc reserves, total indium reserves are about 1700 tonnes. On the same basis, the reserve base is 3000 tonnes.

WORLD PRODUCTION

Indium is recovered mostly from the dusts at lead and zinc smelters, and from the purification of zinc sulphate. Estimated Western world refinery production in 1985/86 was about 80 tonnes (75 tonnes in 1985 and 85 tonnes in 1986), mainly from the USA, Canada, Japan, Peru, France, Belgium, W Germany and UK. Mexico, the Netherlands and N Korea also refined smaller amounts. Indium bearing concentrates are mined in the USA, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Ireland, Peru, China and the USSR. The USSR and China also produce refined indium. World refinery capacity is estimated to be around 180 tonnes, mainly in Europe, N America and Japan.


Static reserve life (years): Ratio of reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:

CONSUMPTION

22

c. 1 1




n/a 22.5

c. 20

$17.5 million (at average 1987 prices).


Electrical and electronic components 40 Solders, alloys and coatings 40 Research and other uses 20

124


n/a n/a 1.7

n/a 12.5 2.6

Indium

SUBSTITUTES

Substitutes exist for most end uses of indium. Silicon has tended to replace germanium-indium in transistors. Gallium can substitute in some alloys, although at greater cost, and boron carbide and hafnium can be used in nuclear reactor control rods.

Relative cost is important in determining whether substitution occurs.


Uses in solar cells in semiconductors and in indium-tin coatings for flat glass. Potential large scale use in lasers for telecommunications and consumer electronics products.

PRICES

1982

US Producer (Indium Corp) US$/troy ounce 4.10


1983

3.13

3.18

1984

3.11

3.09

1985

2.60

2.57

1986

2.66

2.73

1987

6.83

6.83

Supply is relatively independent of demand in that it depends on the output of zinc. A producer price coexists with a dealer market.


The world's refining facilities are limited as only a few zinc smelters recover indium as a by-product.

Output depends on the type of zinc ore processed.

125

Indium

INDIUM US producer


100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30~--------~--------~------~---------r--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

126


Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes)

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Unwrought waste and scrap

Source of Net Imports (%) Canada European Community USA Peru China Others

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages)

UK

n/a

n/a

( tonnes) n/ a

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) n/a

Import Dependence (%) Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption

and net exports

n/a

n/a

(a) Based on production and consumption.

Share of World Consumption (%) Total world n/a

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a

127

EC(10)

n/a

inc. with gallium

inc. with gallium

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Japan

17

14.9

2 30 35

33

22.5

25(a)

25(a)

28

n/a

Indium

USA

n/a

36.0

2 72

7 15 3

n/a

20

n/a

n/a

25

1.7

INDUSTRIAL DIAMONDS

WORLD RESERVES (million carats and% of total)

Developed

Australia S Africa

Totals Grand Total

500 (51.0) 70 (7.1)

---570 (58.1)

Developing

Botswana 125 (12.8) Ghana 15 ( 1. 5) Zaire 150 (15.3) Others _lQ~)

320 (32.7) 980

Centrally Planned

China 10 ( 1. 0) USSR 80 (8.2)

---90 (9.2)

Approximately 40% of these reserves are in the form of crushing bort with the balance industrial stones. The world reserve base is 1900 million carats mainly in Australia, Botswana, S Africa, Zaire and the USSR. Synthetic industrial diamonds supplement reserves.

128

Industrial Diamonds

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 {'000 carats and% of total)

Mine % of Productive Capacity Production Production Stone Grit/Powder

Developed Australia 9447 (20.9) 3000 1500 S Africa 5659 (12.5) 6500 650

Total 15106 (33.4) 9500 2150

Developing Angola 130 {0.3) 400 40 Botswana 4909 {10.8) 6600 700 Brazil 234 {0.5) 1350 Central African Rep. 105 {0.2) 100 10 Ghana 563 (1. 2) 600 50 Guinea 12 ( .. ~ 100 10 Guyana 7 ( .. 10 India 2 ( .. ) 5 Indonesia 22 ( .. ) 25 Ivory Coast 6{a) ( .. ) n/a n/a Swaziland 18 ( .. ) n/a n/a Liberia 131 (0.3) 250 25 Namibia 48 {0.1) 100 Sierra Leone 103 {0.2) 100 18 Tanzania 90 {0.2) 120 15 Venezuela 188 (0.4) 600 Zaire 16384 (36.2) 2000 17000

Total 22952 (50.7) 12360 17868

Centrall~ Planned China 800 {1.8) 1100 600 USSR 6400 (14.1) 7500 4000

Total 7200 {15.9) 8600 4600

TOTAL 45258 30460 24618

(a) 1986 only

This table does not include illicit production in some developing countries. For most countries the breakdown between gems and industrial stones has been estimated by the US Bureau of Mines. Apart from the natural diamond covered by the table, almost 190 million carats of synthetic diamonds were produced in the entire world, with 78 million in the United States.

129

Industrial Diamonds



CONSUMPTION

22

Under 1, but this excludes synthetic diamond and other resources

1985/86 Averages '000 carats



n/a 47500 71450

n/a 13.9 7.4

n/a 12.8 12.4

The table includes both natural and synthetic diamonds. Total Western world consumption of industrial diamonds (natural and synthetic) averaged some 160 mi 11 ion carats.


Machinery Abrasives Transport equipment Contract construction Stone and ceramic products Mineral services*

(drilling bits, etc) Other

27 16 6

13 17

18 3

* But accounts for 66% of consumption of industrial diamond stones.


$100 million (at average US import value of 1987 for stones and grit; powders etc) Natural stones only.

SUBSTITUTES

Most substitutes, natural, corundum, and manufactured of fused aluminium oxide, are not as efficient or as adaptable. New abrasive materials are being brought into operation and of these cubic boron nitride seems the most promising.

130

Industrial Diamonds


Further development of intermediate and large size industrial synthetic stones, suitable for all uses now served by natural stones.

Potential for increased markets in drilling, with replacement of conventional bits with diamond bits, in construction (diamond saws and core drills), and for diamond abrasives in the stone, glass and clay industries.

Possible new uses in electronic and electrical applications; in surgical tools and equipment; and, through electroplated metal on diamond surfaces, for bearings and protective coatings.

PRICES AND MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

US Import values

Industrial diamond stones $/carat 12.60 9.98 8.03 8.52 7.23 11.45

Stones Real 1987 price 12.95 10.13 7.96 8.49 7.42 11.45

Bort/powder/dust $/carat 1.90 1.49 1.33 1.27 1.25 1.21

Most diamond mines produce stones of gem quality and for industrial use and industrial supply is controlled to a large extent by gem demand. De Beers Central Selling Organisation (CSO) controls the bulk of the world's sales of diamonds of all types. Australia markets part of its production independently. Prices vary according to size and grade; the table gives merely a crude indication.

131

Industrial Diamonds

INDUSTRIAL DIAMONDS US import value stones $/carat


120

110

100

90

80

70

60~--------~--------.-------~---------r--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

132

Industrial Diamonds


Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 carats) Natural Synthetic Secondary

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 carats) Natural Synthetic


Natura 1

Canada European Community S Africa Switzer 1 and United States Congo Zaire Others

Synthetic European Community Finland Japan Switzerland United States Others

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 carats) Natural and Synthetic

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 carats) Natural and Synthetic

UK EC(10)

n/a n/a

Japan

c. 10000

USA

78000 1750

Full figures are 727 16184 not available 37950 29602

n/a

Details are not

available

Details are not

available

n/a

n/a

133

(inc. dust & powder)

11 42

17 4

19 6

65

1 33 1

47

47500

8 46 27 4

5 10

84

12 1

3

54850

71450

Industrial Diamonds

UK EC Japan USA

Im~ort De~endence (%) Imports as % of consumption n/a n/a 81 100

(all types) (stones) 46

(other) Imports as % of consumption

and net exports n/a n/a 81 100 (all types) (stones)

25 (other)

Share of World Consum~tion (%) Western world (approx.) all forms n/a n/a 30

Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 13.9 7.4

(all types) (all types)

134

IRON ORE

WORLD RESERVES ('000 million tonnes of contained iron and% of total)


Australia 9.2 (14.0) Brazil 9.8 (14.9) Canada 4.1 (6.2) India 4.4 (6.7) France 0.8 ( 1. 2) Liberia 0.5 (0.8) S Africa 2.6 (4.0) Venezuela 1.1 (1. 7) Sweden 1.5 (2.3) Other America 0.6 (0.9) USA 3.4 (5.2) Other Africa 0.5 (0.8) Others __Q_J_ __1.!_:_!_) Others ~~) Totals 22.3 (34.0) 17.5 (26.6) Grand Total 65.7

Centrally Planned

China USSR

3.2 (4.9) 22.7 (34.5)

25.9 (39.4)

World reserves amount to some 137,000 million tonnes of crude ore. The estimated reserve base is 89,000 million tonnes of contained iron (190,000 million tonnes of crude ore) and resources exceed 800,000 million tonnes of crude ore with an iron content of over 235,000 million tonnes.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (million tonnes of contained iron and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 57.6 (11.6) Algeria 1.7 (0.3) China 42.3 (8.5) Canada 23.7 (4.8) Brazil 86.7 (17.4) N Korea 3.2 (0.6) France 4.2 (0.8) Chile 3.9 (0.8) USSR 136.6 (27.4) New Zealand 1.4 (0.3) India 28.3 ( 5. 7) Others 2.0 (0.4) Norway 2.3 (0.5) Liberia 9.4 ( 1. 9) S Africa 15.3 (3.1) Mauritania 4.6 (0.9) Spain 3.0 (0.6) Mexico 5.0 ( 1. O) Sweden 13.5 ( 2. 7) Peru 3.4 (0. 7) Turkey 2.0 (0.4) Venezuela 10.9 (2.2) USA 28.5 ( 5. 7) Others 3.6 (0. 7) Yugoslavia 1.9 (0.4) Others ____hQ~) ----- ----Totals 156.4 (31.4) 157.5 (31.6) 184.1 (37.0) Grand Total 498.0

135

Iron Ore

The gross production of ore from which the above totals were derived averaged 857 million tonnes. The average grade of ore mined was thus 58.1%. Average% grades were as follows in 1986 in the leading producing countries:

Australia 63 S Africa Brazil 68 Sweden Canada 62 USA China 50 USSR India 63 Venezuela Liberia 62

PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY! 1985 {Major ~roducers} (million tonnes of contained iron)


Australia 78 Brazil 100 Canada 32 India 33 France 8 Liberia 14 New Zealand 3 Mexico 7 S Africa 23 Venezuela 16 Sweden 14 Others 33 USA 60 Others 12 Totals 230 203


Static reserve life (years): 132 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 9 : 1

CONSUMPTION


1985/86 Averages million tonnes Fe content

70 81 43

136

63 66 64 55 62

Centrally Plan ned Total

China 42 USSR 167 Others 7

216 649


-0.1 7

-1.9

-3.2 -1.8 -8.2

Iron Ore

END USE PATTERN 1986 (USA) (%)

Blast furnaces 84 Sintering plants 13 Steel furnaces, DRI + other

steel functions 1 Cement production, heavy media

materials and others 2


$17 billion (at 1987 average prices).

SUBSTITUTES

No substitutes although increasing quantities of scrap are used in steelmaking.


Increasing use of direct reduction process is expected to lead to higher steel production in developing countries. Development of coal based processes for induration and direct smelting of ore would also increase efficiency.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

$/tonne

Brazil 65% Fe cif North Sea Ports

Brazil 65% Fe Real 1987 price

26.21 23.97

26.9 24.3

23.11 22.66 21.89 22.23

22.9 22.6 22.5 22.2

Most prices are fixed annually under long term sales contracts although the spot market became more important during the recession-hit 1980s. Price is influenced by supply/demand conditions in the steel industry prevailing at time of renegotiation and tends to lag behind economic activity. Freight is a major component of price. Wide price ranges depending on grade and nature of product. Two reference prices tend to dominate the industry: the delivered price of Brazilian ore to W Europe and of Australian ore to Japan.

137

Iron Ore


It is estimated that under 25 countries control almost 80% of world trade and 70% of world production is from government-controlled companies. Captive relationships, where steel companies own and operate iron ore mines, are important in US, Canada and Australia especially. Low grade producers of N America have found competition increasingly difficult with higher grade producers in Australia and Brazil. The latter countries dominate the market but have divergent interests and objectives which reduce the prospect of any agreement to secure higher prices.

138

130

120

110

100

IRON ORE Brazilian 65% Fe cif North Sea Ports


\

',~ ..... \~

"3 \ '(Q 0 -~ \'? :z.. (fl

~ \ ~ \

\

'

Iron Ore

90~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

139

Iron Ore


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (million tonnes) 0.28 16.82 0.31 44.49 Fe content 0.06 5.46 0.20 28.54

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (mill ion tonnes) 14.98 116.0 119.9 16.52 Fe content approx. 9.3 74.2 76.7 10.6 roasted iron pyrites 0.25 0.33

Source of Net Imports (%) Australia 19 14 42 Canada 35 13 2 53 Norway 8 3 S Africa 7 3 5 Spain 2 2 Sweden 3 10 Brazil 15 30 23 19 Chile 4 1 India 1 17 Liberia 10 11 Mauritania 2 7 Philippines 3 Venezuela 8 5 13 Others 1 2 4 2

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (million tonnes) 4.83 roasted iron pyrites 0.07

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (million tonnes) 14.7 123.2 127.3 66.9 Fe content approx. 9 70 81 42.8

Import Dependence (Fe content) Imports as % of consumption 100 94 100 25 Imports as % of consumption


Share of World Consumption (%) Total world (approx.) 2 14 14 7

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -2.2 -0.1 7.0 -1.9

140

LEAD

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of metal and % of total)

Developed

Australia Canada S Africa Spain Sweden USA Yugoslavia Others Totals Grand Total

16 (16.7) 12 (12.5) 4 (4.2) 2 (2.1) 2 (2.1)

21 (21.9) 4 (4.2)

___i~)

65 (67.7)

Developing

India Mexico Morocco Peru Other

96

2 (2.1) 3 (3.1) 2 (2.1) 2 (2.1) 3 (3.1)

12 (12.5)

The reserve base is estimated at 142 million tonnes.

Centrally Planned

Bulgaria 3 (3.1) China 2 (2.1) Poland 2 (2.1) USSR 12 (12.5)

19 (19.8)

Total world resources are estimated at 1.4 billion tonnes.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes of contained metal and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 466.3 (13.5) Argentina 28.6 (0.8) Bulgaria 97.0 (2.8) Canada 317.0 (9.2) Bolivia 4.7 (0.1) China 180.0 (5.2) W Germany 24.3 (0.7) Brazil 17.0 (0.5) Czecho-Greece 20.5 (0.6) Honduras 16.3 (0.5) slovakia 3.0 (0.1) Greenland 17.0 (0.5) India 25.5 (0.7) N Korea 82.5 (2.4) Ireland 35.5 (1.0) Iran 20.8 (0.6) Poland 46.9 (1.4) Italy 13.4 (0.4) Mexico 192.3 (5.5) Romania 34.5 (1.0) Japan 45.2 (1.3) Morocco 89.3 (2.6) USSR 565.0 (16.4) S Africa 98.1 (2.8) Namibia 42.9 (1. 2) Spain 84.5 (2.4) Peru 198.0 (5.7) Sweden 82.5 (2.4) S Korea 10.2 (0.3) USA 388.8 (11.3) Thailand 33.4 ( 1. 0) Yugoslavia 116.0 (3.4) Zambia 7.7 (0.2) Others 26. 5 __{Q_&) Others 18.5 ~) Totals 1735.5 (50.3) 705.2 (20.4) 1008.9 (29.2) Grand Total 3449.6

141

WORLD SMELTER PRODUCTION FROM ORES AND BULLION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 176 (5.3) Argentina 17 (0.5) Austria 8 (0.2) Brazi 1 31 (0.9) Belgium 70 (2.1) Burma 7 (0.2) Canada 172 (5.1) India 17 (0.5) France 133 (4.0) S Korea 25 (0.7) W Germany 181 (5.4) Mexico 164 (4.9) Greece 15 (0.4) Morocco 58 (1. 7) Italy 33 (1.0) Namibia 39 (1.2) Japan 233 (7.0) Peru 74 (2.2) Spain 98 (2.9) Tunisia 1 ( .. ) Sweden 46 (1.4) Zambia 8 (0.2) UK 152 (4.5) USA 439 (13.1) Yugoslavia _li .J..h1) ---Totals 1771 (56.0) 441 (13.2) Grand Total 3341

WORLD REFINED LEAD PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages) This includes secondary antimonial lead.


Australia 192 (3.5) Argentina 32 (0.6) Belgium 98 (1.8) Brazil 80 (1.4) Canada 252 (4.5) Mexico 195 (3.5) France 227 (4.1) Morocco 59 (1.1) W Germany 361 (6.5) Namibia 39 (0. 7) Italy 131 (2.4) Peru 75 (1.4) Japan 364 (6.6) Others 223 (4.0) Spain 141 (2.5) Sweden 75 (1.4) UK 328 (5.9) USA 982 (17. 7) Yugoslavia 139 (2.5) Others 148 _(b.D ---Totals 3438 (62.0) 703 (12.7) Grand Total 5547

142

Centrally Planned

Bulgaria 105 (3.1) China 175 (5.2) N Korea 60 (1.8) Poland 46 ( 1.4) Romania 43 (1.3) USSR 600 (18.0)

----1029 (30.8)

Centrally Planned

Bulgaria 118 (2.1) China 218 (3.9) Czecho-slovakia 23 (0.4) E Germany 45 (0.8) N Korea 65 ( 1. 2) Poland 88 ( 1. 6) Romania 49 (0.9) USSR 800 (14.4)

----1406 (25.3)

coins)

Lead

MINE 2 SMELTER AND REFINERY CAPACITIES 2 1986 ( '000 tonnes)

Mine* Smelter Refinery

Developed Australia 460 460 250 Belgium 115 155 Canada 483 89 94 France 2 160 120 W Germany 30 231 296 Italy 30 32 80 Japan 70 338 315 S Africa 100 Spain 100 90 116 Sweden 85 65 30 UK 40 245 USA 559 372 454 Yugoslavia 130 155 155 Others 120 54 60

Total 2169 2201 2370

Developing Argentina 40 102 86 Brazil 25 40 40 Mexico 208 290 320 Morocco 145 65 65 Namibia 40 75 75 Peru 230 102 102 Zambia 30 30 30 Others 208 132 146

Total 926 836 864

Centrally Planned China 170 190 185 Bulgaria 125 130 120 N Korea 80 110 120 USSR 605 585 700 Others 80 140 200

Total 1060 1155 1325

TOTAL 4155 4192 4559

* Mine capacities are for 1985.

143

LEAD RECOVERED FROM SCRAP: WESTERN WORLD ('000 tonnes 1985/86 Averages)

Scrap included in refined production 1829 Other identified scrap recovery

(remelted, alloys and direct use) 186 2015



28

2.4 : 1

CONSUMPTION OF REFINED METAL


European Community Japan United States Others Total Western world

Total world


Batteries Cable sheathing Pipe and sheet Chemicals Alloys Others

* Including tetraethyl

1227 393

1120 1279 4019

5461

USAl

76 2 3 9* 5 6

1 Lead in all forms including scrap 2 Refined lead only Source: ILZSG

144

UKl

30 4

28 23* 6 8

% p.a. growth rates 1960-70 1970-80 1980-86

2.4 8.4 2.1 5.8 3.4

3.9

0.2 3.4 0.6 2.7 1.2

1.8

W Germany!

49 4

12 28 4 3

-0.4 -0.1 0.6 2.4 0.7

0.5

Japan2

67 3 4

16 4 5

coins)

Lead


$3.3 billion (total refined metal at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Battery replacements include nickel-zinc, zinc-chloride and lithium metalsulphide although large scale commercial use is precluded by cost and operating problems.

Polyethylene and other materials substitute in some cable coverings.

In construction applications, plastics, galvanised steel, copper and aluminium are alternatives. In corrosive chemical environments, stainless steel, titanium, plastics and cement are substitutes. Tin, glass, plastics and aluminium are alternatives in tubes and containers, and iron or steel in shot for ammunition.


Environmental worries may limit uses for lead particularly in petrol where its use as an anti-knock additive is being phased down. Storage batteries for industrial load levelling, mains power management, and electric vehicles are prospective markets. Also the continued search for weight reduction is reducing the amount of lead per battery, and battery lives are being extended.

Use of lead as an antioxidant in asphalt.

Use of lead for nuclear waste protection.

New techniques to recover lead from concentrates and from scrap.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

¢/lb LME Cash 24.8 19.3 20.1 17.8 18.4 27.1 US Producer 25.5 21.7 25.5 19.1 22.3 35.4

£/tonne LME Cash 310.7 280.3 332.1 303.6 277.1 363.4 Real 1987 price 318.9 284.3 329.9 300.5 284.5 363.4

Monthly LME 276.9- 263.4- 280.3- 269.6- 236.3- 287.5-range i/tonne 343.4 301.4 373.6 372.2 380.5 540.5

145

Lead

Outside the US, where a domestic producer pr1c1ng system operates, sales are based on LME terminal market prices. A substantial percentage of mine output is associated with Zn, Cu and Ag, which affects the supply and breakeven costs. Large secondary production (with lower costs than primary supply) is a major factor influencing price.


Some 300-400 mines produce lead mainly as by- or co-product, but smelters are the main influence on market trends. Primary smelting is dominated by large companies, with state controlled production, e.g. from Peru, a growing influence. Secondary smelters, often linked to battery manufacturers, normally have a restraining effect on the market; scrap availability is fairly sensitive to price.

146

110

100

90

80

LEAD LME cash


70~--------~------~--------~------~------~

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

147

coins)

Lead


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Mine production 3.5 99.7 45.2 388.8

(inc. Greenland) Smelted from ores & bullion 152 584 233 439 Refined inc. secondary 328 1208 364 982

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes lead content) Ores and concentrates 32.7 301.0 178.3 64.7 Base bull ion 148.6 196.1 26.6 0.5 Refined inc. refined

antimonial 34.2 146.5 52.5 136.9 Secondary material 2.9 n/a 0.1 2.8


Ores and concentrates Australia 32 6 23 18 Canada 15 14 24 53 European Community 10 Norway 2 1 S Africa & Namibia 15 13 3 Spain 11 4 Sweden 3 10 Argentina 2 Bolivia 2 Honduras 9 3 2 1 Mexico 4 Morocco 4 Peru 9 13 22 18 Thailand 3 9 Turkey 1 Others 9 10 6 3

148

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Refined Lead

Australia 15 7 36 1 Canada 71 18 2 71 European Community 4 2 1 S Africa & Namibia 2 3 Sweden 8 5 1 United States 1 2 Mexico 18 15 23 Morocco 2 25 Peru 9 12 2 Taiwan 17 Others 14 10

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes lead content) Ores and concentrates 3.0 33.8 7.2 Base bull ion 39.1 46.0 (a) 0.4 0.3 Refined lead, inc. refined

antimonial 62.1 92.6 24.9 17.4 (a) Gross exports

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Refined 278.2 1226.6 1119.7 Scrap and remelted (not 393.4

included in refined) 28.0 70.3 60.2



Share of World Consumption (%) (Refined Lead) Western world 7 31 10 28 Total world 5 22 7 21

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1960s -0.1 2.4 8.4 2.1 1970s -0.6 0.2 3.4 0.6

149

coins)

LITHIUM

WORLD RESERVES (•ooo tonnes lithium and% of total)

Developed Developing Centrally Planned Total

Australia Portugal USA Totals

270 (13.9) 1 ( .. )

365 (18.9) 636 (32.8)

Chile Zimbabwe Others

1270 (65.6) 25 ( 1.3)

_5 .J.Q.d)

1300 (67.2)

China USSR

n/a n/a

n/a 1936 (W world)

The Western world reserve base, in so far as data are available, is estimated at 8,350,000 tonnes, two-thirds of which is in Bolivia. Other locations, not included above, are Canada and Zaire. The size of the reserve base in Argentina, Brazil and Portugal is unknown. Total estimated world resources are approximately 6.5 million tonnes of lithium equivalent.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of lithium and% of total)


Developed Australia 337 f4.0~ Canada 12 0.1 Portugal 10 (0.1) USA 4500 (53.2)

Total 4859 (57.4) Developing Argentina 1 ( .. ) Brazi 1 30 (0.4) Chile 840 (9.9) Namibia 49 (0.6) Zimbabwe 600 (7.1)

Total 1520 (18.0) Centrally Planned China 450 (5.3) USSR 1630 (19.3)

Total 2080 (24.6)

TOTAL 8459

(a) Based largely on a paper by R. Crozier. 8th •Industrial International Congress.

Productive Capacity( a)

510 245

20 6000 6775

150 280

1200 150 375

2155

680 1020 1700

10630

Minerals•

These figures represent estimates of lithium extracted from mineral concentrate and brine. 150



CONSUMPTION

Lithium

extremely large

n/a

The available statistics are sparse, and those below merely give broad orders of magnitude of contained lithium as concentrate.


European Community 1020 Japan 753 United States c. 2300 World 5150


Primary aluminium Ceramics and glass Lubricants Others


28 32 24 16

% p.a. 1970s

n/a 11.7 5.2 n/a

$150 million (at average 1987 price for lithium carbonate).

SUBSTITUTES

growth rates 1980-86

n/a 6.7

-2.4 1.6

Sodium and potassium substitute as fluxes in ceramics and glass industries. Calcium and aluminium soaps, plus detergents and gels, are alternatives for lithium stearate in lubricants.

Zinc, magnesium, cadmium, sodium and mercury compete for the lithium anode material in batteries. Magnesium has also been successful as a deoxidiser and grain refiner in copper and iron castings.

Lithium can be removed from use in aluminium potlines by increasing the percentages of other salts.

151

Lithium


Use in nuclear fusion electric power reactors. Development of rechargeable lithium batteries and extensive use in fuel cells. Potential for substantial use in structural metal field, particularly in lightweight alloys and in glass applications.

Substitution of lithium for fluorine as a melting flux.

PRICES

US carbonate 99% min lithium carbonate ¢/lb

Real 1987 price

1982

141

151.6

1983

141

143.1

1984

148

146.7

1985

154

153.4

1986

150

153.9

1987

150

150

Lithium carbonate is 18.8% contained lithium. US producers set domestic producer price which serves as world reference price.


Two US companies control the majority of the Western world's production of lithium concentrate although a new lithium carbonate plant in Chile, which opened in 1984, may reduce US dominance in the next few years.

152

LITHIUM US carbonate 99% min LiC02


104

102

100

98

96

94-+----"" money terms

--" - \ \

\ \

\ \

Lithium

92~--------~--------~------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

153

Lithium


UK

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production (contained 1i)

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates, gross n/a Lithium carbonate 950

Lithium hydroxide 484.5 Lithium metal 28.5 Total contained lithium c. 287 (a) c.

(a) Excluding UK (b) Excluding ores and concentrates


Lithium carbonate European Community United States Chile China USSR

Lithium hydroxide United States Hong Kong China USSR Others and undefined

Metal European Community United States Hungary Others and undefined

154

EC{lO)

n/a 5751 (a)

1470 (a) 8 (a)

1332 (a,b)

61 29 9 1

32

21 2

45

27 13

Japan USA

4725 (estimate)

8184 3430 1586

(all compounds) 841

46 10.4 c. 830 c. 500

All compounds 1 2

62 25 98 11

85 3 7 4

33 67

100

Lithium

UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Lithium carbonate 191 209 5782 Lithium hydroxide 98 (a) 3230 Other compounds 1973 Lithium metal 51 (a) n/a Total all forms contained

1 ithium c. 36 c. 106 2040

(a) Excluding UK

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes)

Contained lithium as chemicals after processing losses c. 150 c. 1020 753 2300

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 (net exports) Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 100 100 100 (net exports)

Share of World Consumption (%) Total world 3 20 15 45 Western world 3 21 15 46

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 11.7 5.2

155

MAGNESIUM

MAGNESITE - WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of magnesium and % of total)


Australia 86 (3.4) Brazil 136 (5.4) Czecho-Austria 13 (0.5) India 27 ( 1.1) slovakia 18 (0. 7) Canada 27 (1.1) Others 305 (12.0) China 745 (29.4) Greece 27 (1.1) N Korea 445 (17.6) Turkey 9 (0.3) USSR 655 (25.9) USA 9 (0.3) Others 9 (0.3) Yugoslavia 5 (0.2) Others __Ji~) --- -----Totals 190 (7.5) 468 (18.5) 1872 (74.0) Grand Total 2530

The reserve base is 3,350 million tonnes. Identified world resources of magnesite total some 12 billion tonnes. Furthermore magnesium compounds can be recovered economically from well and lake brines and from seawater. The latter, which contains 0.13% by weight of magnesium, is a major source of metal and compounds.

WORLD PRODUCTION OF MAGNESITE ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Austria 1170 (9.5) Australia 49 (0.4) Canada 140 (1.1) Greece 936 (7.6) S Africa 45 (0.4) Spain 696 (5.7) Turkey 1238 (10.1) USA c. 50 (0.4) Yugoslavia 421 ~) Totals 4745 (38.7) Grand Total

Developing

Braz i 1 India Mexico Zimbabwe Others

12276

245 (2.0) 436 (3.6)

20 (0.2) 24 (0.2) 26 (0.2)

751 (6.1)

Centrally Planned

Czecho-slovakia 660 (5.4) China 2000 (16.3) N Korea 1900 (15.5) Poland 20 (0.2) USSR 2200 (17.9)

6780 (55.2)

The magnesium content of this production was approximately 3.4 million tonnes. In addition the magnesium content of dolomite, seawater, and well and lake brines amounted to roughly 1.6 million tonnes of contained magnesium, with output in the United States around 410,000 tonnes. The world capacity for producing magnesia from seawater and brines is roughly 2.3 million tonnes (US 0.75 million, Japan 0.55 million).

156

Magnesium

WORLD PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985, OF PRIMARY MAGNESIUM METAL ('000 tonnes and% of total)

Mine Production

Developed Canada 6.8 France 13.55 Italy 7.55 Japan 8.30 Norway 55.60 USA 126.15 Yugoslavia 4.90

Total 222.85

Developing India 0.10 Brazil 3.50

Total 3.60

Centrall~ Planned China 9.00 USSR 85.50

Total 94.50

TOTAL 320.95

SECONDARY RECOVERY OF MAGNESIUM METAL ('000 tonnes 1985/86 Averages)

Austria Braz i 1 Japan United Kingdom United States USSR

0.35 1.90

17.65 0.95

41.55 c. 9.00

This includes recovery of magnesium alloys.

157

% of Productive Production Capacity

(2.1) 9.0 (4.2) 14.0 (2.4) 11.0 (2.6) 12.0

(17.3) 55.0 (39.3) 168.0 (1.7) 5.0

(69.4) 274.0

( .. ) n/a ( 1.1) 4 (1.1) 4

(2.8) 9.0 (26.6) 90.0 (29.4) 99.0

377.0

Magnesium


Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified resources to cumulative demand 1987-2000:

extremely large (excludes seawater)

over 30 : 1

(This excludes seawater, brines and presently uneconomic resources).

158

Magnesium

CONSUMPTION OF MAGNESITE

Reliable data for most countries are not readily available. United States consumption of magnesium compounds averaged 537,000 tonnes of contained magnesium in 1985/86. It fell at an average annual rate of 2% during the 1970s, and at 4.4% from 1980-1986, mainly because of declining steel industry activity.

CONSUMPTION OF MAGNESIUM METAL

1985/86 Averages % p.a. growth rates (total) '000 tonnes Primary Total 1970s 1980-86

European Community 50.9 51.9 -2 -0.2 Japan 20.6 38.3 8.5 1.2 United States 72.9 114.5 2.8 -3.5 Other countries 42.5 44.8 3.2 -0.6 Total Western world 186.9 249.5 3.0 -0.4

Total world 290.3 361.9 3.9 1.2


Non-metal Refractories 75 Preparation of caustic calcined

and specified magnesias and other magnesium compounds 25

Metal Manufacture of A1 based alloys 53 Castings and wrought products 23 Reducing agent 7 Chemicals 2 Nodular iron 2 Other 13


Magnesite Magnesium metal (primary only)

$ 2.8 billion (at average 1987 prices) $1082 million (at average 1987 prices)

As magnesite is a raw material for some magnesium metal, the two values are not additive.

159

Magnesium

SUBSTITUTES

Aluminium and zinc are alternatives in many die-casting applications. Sodium can be used to reduce titanium tetrachloride to produce titanium metal.

Rare earth elements and calcium carbide can substitute in production of nodular iron and steel desulphurisation.

Alumina, silica, zirconia, chromite and kyanite are substitutes in magnesia refractories.


Increased use in car industry and in steel desulphurisation.

Greater use of aluminium-magnesium alloys, particularly in the aluminium can, and development of new improved alloys.

Plastics and composites could replace magnesium metal in some areas.

Development of better refractories and of furnaces with limited refractory maintenance could decrease demand.

Olivine and dunite, naturally occurring magnesium compounds, are potential alternatives for silica foundry sand and blasting sand. Olivine also has limited use for slag and alkali control in steelmaking.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Magnesite, dead-burned, bulk, bagged, fob Luning $/st 246 249 249 249 249 249 Magnesite, dead-burned, Real 1987 price 253 253 247 248 255 249 Magnesite, Brickmaking grain UK £/tonne 180 180 180 193.4 200 200 Magnesium metal US primary ingot 99.8% ¢/lb 134 136.5 145.5 148.2 153.0 153.0 Magnesium Real 1987 price 137.7 138.5 144.2 147.6 157.0 153.0

160

Magnesium


Metal production is dominated by US and Norwegian companies but sources of raw materials (seawater, lake brines, magnesite, dolomite) are widespread. Costs of energy are a limiting factor on new metal production, with present production technology.

161

Magnesium

MAGNESIUM Metal US primary ingot $/lb.


105

100

95

I' I '

I ' I ',

I I

I I

85~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

162

104

102

100

98

MAGNESITE Dead-burned bulk, bagged f.o.b. luning $/lb.


rea/1987 terms ----, \ \ \ \ \

\ I \ ,_,-\,- ,_ ,_

Magnesium

I" I \ I \

I \\ I \

I \ I \

I \ I \

96~------~--------~------~--------r-------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

163

Magnesium

SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR MAGNESITE BY MAIN MARKET AREA

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Magnesite - gross weight 936 c. 50

- Mg content 311 c. 9 Magnesia, from other sources

(dolomite, brines, seawater) - Mg content n/a n/a n/a c. 410

(capacity 220)


Magnesium oxide, carbonate and clinker 130 539 305 248

Source of Net Imports (%) including magnesia from brine and seawater Crude + processd

magnesite Austria 17 1 Canada 21 European Community 60 44 Japan 3 5 Spain 22 18 3 United States 1 Turkey 9 1 China 7 27 83 17 Czechoslovakia 8 3 N Korea 8 16 Brazil 1 Israel 3 Mexico 4 Others 11 6 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 88 233 (a) 113 42

(a) Excluding UK

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) n/a n/a n/a 537

164

Magnesium

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Im~ort De~endence

Imports as % of consumption n/a n/a n/a 46 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports n/a n/a n/a 43

Share of World Consum~tion (%) Total world (approx) n/a n/a n/a n/a

Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.)

1970s n/a n/a n/a -2

165

Magnesium

SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR MAGNESIUM METAL BY MAIN MARKET AREA

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Magnesium metal primary 21.1 8.3 126.15 Magnesium metal secondary 0.95 0.95 17.65 41.55

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Unwrought and wrought

including waste and scrap 7.0 27.8 14.87 5.9


Canada 21 6 7 European Community 37 2 Norway 35 43 18 Sweden 2 United States 30 69 Yugoslavia 8 Taiwan 1 Others 8 11 3

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) 2.1 6.0 1.8 36.4

(inc. alloys)

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (•ooo tonnes) Inc. secondary 5.6 52 38 115




Western world 2 21 15 47 Total world 1 14 11 32

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -0.5 -2 8.5 2.8

166

MANGANESE

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes manganese and% of total)


Australia S Africa

Totals Grand Total

70 (7.5) Brazil 370 (39.8) Gabon

Ghana India Mexico Morocco

440 (47.4) 929

19 (2.0) China 100 (10.8) USSR

4 (0.4) 18 (1.9) 3 (0.3)

_1 _j.Q.!_!.) 14.5 (15.6)

14 (1.5) 330 (35.5)

344 (37.0)

The reserve base is approximately 3,650 million tonnes, 95% of which is located in Australia, S Africa, Gabon and USSR. In addition, sea bed nodules contain substantial resources of manganese.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 ('000 tonnes of manganese and% of total)


Developed Australia 855 (10.1) 1180 S Africa 1474 (16.8) 2995 Others 29 (0.3) 40

Total 2358 (27.0) 4215

Developing Braz i 1 1080 (12.3) 1270 Gabon 1119 (12.8) 1180 Ghana 114 ( 1. 3) 135 India 473 (5.4) 635 Mexico 162 (1.8) 275 Morocco 21 (0.2) 35 Others 20 (0.2) 40

Total 2989 (34.2) 3570

Centrall~ Planned China 480 (5.5) 500 USSR 2860 (32.6) 3450 Others 49 (0.6) 55

Total 3389 (38.8) 4005

TOTAL 8736 11790

167

Manganese

The gross production of ore from which the manganese was derived averaged 24.3 million tonnes. The data exclude modest output of low grade ore in a number of countries.

The manganese content of mined ore varies widely between countries. The shipped ore grades of the main producers are:

Australia Brazil China Gabon Ghana India Mexico Morocco S Africa USSR


Static reserve life (years):

37-53 38-50 30 50-53 30-50 10-54 27-50 50-53 30-48+ 29-30

106 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 8 : 1 (land only)

CONSUMPTION


Manganese ore (gross weight) European Community 2270 Japan 1060 United States 474

Ferromanganese (gross weight) European Community Japan United States

c. 700 c. 400

382


-0.2 -4.8 1.5 -5.8

-6.0 -11.9

0.5 -6.2 2.1 -14.0

-1.6 -11.6

Note: The ferromanganese figures in this table and in the table on supply and demand by main market area include some double counting of high carbon ferromanganese that is used to make more refined products.

168


Manganese metal Steel (including alloy steels) Superalloy Other alloys Miscellaneous

Ferromanganese

22 1

75 2

Steel (including alloy steels) 96 Cast irons 3 Others (including alloys & superalloys) 1


$1.1 billion (metal content at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Manganese

Cost and technology militate against substitution in major applications and for economic reasons there is only limited substitution in minor applications in chemicals and batteries.


Deep sea nodules.

Use of lower grades of ores in ferromanganese production.

New steelmaking practices and techniques are reducing amount of manganese consumed in the process, but counterbalancing this to some extent is a trend towards higher manganese specifications in modern steels.

169

Manganese

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Ore Europe 48-50% Mn $/tonne of contained metal 165 138 137.1 138.9 137.0 128.0 Europe 48-50% Mn Real 1987 price 169.3 140.1 136.2 137.5 140.6 128.0

Metal UK Electrolytic min 99.95% £/tonne 770 1260.5 1783.0 1820.0 1861.9 1936.7


Prices negotiated, dependent on chemical quality, physical character, quantity, delivery terms, etc. Published quotations only reflect general condition of market. Freight charges are particularly important. Strategic value.


A few large companies dominate, with government ownership important in some cases. Five countries control approximately half of non-Eastern Bloc ore production, with South Africa dominating. Trend to forward integration by ore producers into ferromanganese production - e.g. in South Africa. Some steel producers have manganese interests. Much ore trade is handled by agents.

170

Manganese

MANGANESE Ore Europe 48-50% Mn


140

130

120

110

100

90~------~~------~--------r-------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

171

Manganese


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Mine Production gross weight 28 14

contained Mn 11 3.6 Ferromanganese 89 622 401 123

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Manganese ore gross weight 272.9 2334 1362 386 Ferromanganese gross weight 49.0 200 6.5 346 Metal 4.52 13 n/a 8.3

Source of Net Im~orts (%)

Manganese ore Australia 2 5 33 18 European Community 1 S Africa 34 26 55 4 Brazi 1 55 11 4 24 Gabon 35 5 43 Ghana 3 4 Mexico 10 Morocco 2 2 Others and undefined 6 18 1

Ferromanganese Australia 3 Canada 12 European Community 26 32 Norway 44 57 7 1 Portugal 2 6 5 S Africa 26 27 36 Spain 6 1 Sweden 1 5 Yugoslavia 1 China 5 Brazi 1 2 33 4 Mexico 9 India 46 Others 2 3

172

Manganese

UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Manganese ore 2.05 95.6 1.4 44 Ferromanganese 15.2 108.5 16.4 5 Metal n/a 3 (a) n/a 5.1

(a) Exc. UK

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes gross wt) Manganese ore 300 2270 1060 474 Ferromanganese c. 120 c. 700 c. 400 382

Import Dependence (manganese) (a) Imports as % of consumption 100 99 99 100 Imports as % of consumption


Share of World Consumption (%) Total world (approx.) Manganese ore 3 26 12 5 Ferromanganese 2 14 8 8

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s: Manganese ore -2.7 -0.2 1.5 -6.0 Ferromanganese -4.7 0.5 2.1 -1.6

(a) Based on mine production of manganese ore relative to consumption

173

MERCURY

WORLD RESERVES (•ooo 76 lb flasks and% of total)


Spain 2600 (65.7) Algeria 80 (2.0) China 300 (7.6) USA 140 (3.5) Mexico 150 (3.8) USSR 300 (7.6) Yugoslavia 350 (8.8) Others 20 (0.5) Others 5 (0.1) Others _1?_~) --- ----Totals 3105 (78.4) 250 (6.3) 605 (15.3) Grand Total 3960

The reserve base totals 7.2 million flasks with, in addition to the above, deposits in Canada, Turkey and the Philippines. Identified world resources amount to 17 million flasks.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (•ooo 76 lb flasks and% of total)

Developed Finland Spain Turkey USA Yugoslavia Others (a)

Total

Developing Algeria Dominican Republic Mexico

Total

Centralll Planned China Czechos 1 ov ak i a USSR

Total

TOTAL

(a) Canada, W Germany and

Mine Production

2.3 43.5 6.0

14.6 2.0

68.4

23.0 0.1

10.7 33.8

20.0 4.4

65.5 89.9

192.1

Italy

174

% of Production

(1.2) (22.6) (3.1) (7.6) (1.0)

(35.6)

(12.0) ( ... ) (5.6)

(17.6)

(10.4) (2.3)

(34.1) (46.8)

Productive Capacity

3 60 10 35 20 65

193

35

20 55

35 8

72

115

363


Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to

1987-2000:

CONSUMPTION

Mercury

19

1.3 1

With increasingly tight environmental controls on mercury usage, demand has declined considerably in the last ten years and a growing percentage is now being met from secondary recovery. Statistics on total European demand are not available.

1985/86 Averages '000 flasks

Japan United States (a)

(a) Reported consumption.


Electrical apparatus Mildew proofing paint Electrolytic production of

1.1 47.9

chlorine/caustic soda Industrial control instruments Others

USA

57 11

17 7 9



SUBSTITUTES


-11.5 -2.8 -1.4 -4.1

W. World

Batteries 32 Lamps 6 Chlorine/caustic 27 Salts & catalyst 22 Controls & dentistry 8 Other 5

Lithium and nickel-cadmium batteries are alternatives for mercury batteries but, generally, there are few satisfactory substitutes for applications in electrical apparatus and industrial and control instruments.

Diaphragm and membrane cells are replacing cells using mercury in the chloralkali industry.

Organic mildewicides are being substituted in latex paints; plastic paint and copper oxide paint are being used to protect ship hulls.

175

Mercury


Environmental considerations are likely to encourage conservation and recycling.

Design changes in mercury cell and improvements in diaphragm cell could modify consumption.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

New York Dealer Price 99.99% $/flask of 76 lb 20+ flask lots 377.1 327.4 314.4 311.0 239.2 329.6

Real 1987 price 387 332.4 312.3 307.8 245.6 329.6

Until 1978/79, mainly dealer markets; producer pricing has become more important since then, particularly outside US. Large quantities of secondary material and exports from China and the USSR affect prices. The USSR was accused of dumping into the EEC in 1986.


The major producers• hold on the market has weakened as increased volumes of secondary material have become available plus supplies from China, the USSR, and the US stockpile. ASSIMER, the Mercury Producers• Association, whose members include Spain, Italy, Yugoslavia and Algeria, has had a varying impact on the market. Over three-quarters of world production is from state owned or controlled mines. The largest producer Minas de Almaden y Arrayanes of Spain forced up prices in 1987/88.

176

120

110

100

90

80

MERCURY NY dealer price 99.99%


\ \ ~ \~

...... \';

3 \~ 0 ~

? \3 ~ <fl

\ \ \ \

' ' ~

Mercury

70~--------~------~~------~---------r--------~

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

177

Mercury


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 76 lb flasks) Primary 14.6 Secondary n/a n/a 0.45 5.9 GSA releases 1.8 Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 76 lb flasks) 11.8 12.38 0.68 19.54 Source of Net Imports (%) European Community 43 3 4 Finland 3 Japan 7 12 Spain 41 43 7 35 Turkey 1 2 19 USA 6 China 3 4 82 18 USSR 8 Algeria 4 23 7 8 Mexico 2 Others 2 10 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 76 lb flasks) 1.3 8.93 8.8 n/a

(mainly secondary from stock)

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 76 lb flasks) c. 10 n/a 1.1 47.9

(primary only) (apparent)

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 n/a 41 41

(primary only) Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 100 n/a 7 n/a (primary only)

A large percentage of European demand is meet from stocks. This complicates the calculation of import shares.

Share of World Consumption (%) Because of the substantial tonnages of mercury consumed from secondary recovery or from stocks, and the lack of complete statistics thereon, reliable estimates of shares of world consumption cannot be made. Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 9.7 declined -11.5 -1.4

(primary only) rapidly

178

MOLYBDENUM



Canada 455 (8.2) Chile 1135 (20.6) China 455 (8.3) USA 2720 (49.3) Iran 70 (1.3) USSR 455 (8.3)

Mexico 90 (1.6) Others 2 ( .. ) Peru 135 (2.5) Others _2~) -------

Totals 3175 (57.5) 1432 (26.0) 912 (16.5) Grand Total 5519

The world reserve base is 11.8 million tonnes mainly located in the USA, Canada, Chile, the USSR and China. Identified resources amount to approximately 21 million tonnes.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of metal and % of total)


Developed Canada 10376 (10.8) Japan 49 ( .. ) USA 45900 (47.9)

Total 56325 (58.8)

Developing Chile 17353 (18.1) Mexico 3631 (3.8) Niger 20 ( .. ) Peru 3760 (3.9) S Korea 316 (0.3) Others (a)

Total 25080 (26.2)

Centralll Planned Bulgaria 185 (0.2) China 1905 (2.0) Mongolia 1000 (1.0) USSR 11340 (11.8)

Total 14430 (15.0)

TOTAL 95835

(a) Iran and Philippines 179

Productive Capacity

18150 225

98430 116805

21300 6800 n/a 3600 450

2050 34200

225 2700 n/a

12700 15625

166630

Molybdenum

A number of other countries, including N Korea and Turkey, produce molybdenum but no reliable data are available to determine production.



CONSUMPTION (Molybdenum in all forms)

58

2.9 1


European Community Japan United States Other Countries Total Western world

(excluding exports to Eastern countries)

21240 11340 16325 12675

61580


2.3 4.4 3.1 2.4

2.5

-2.1 -1.4 -9.9

-4.2

Source: Intermet Molybdenum Database 1987. A. Sutulov.


Steel Cast irons Super and special alloys Molybdenum metal Chemicals and ceramic use Others



180

USA Western world

51 3

11 13 11 11

74 6 3 6

10 1

Molybdenum

SUBSTITUTES

Potential substitutes in alloy steel include boron, chromium, manganese, columbium, vanadium and nickel. Tungsten can be used in tool steels and along with tantalum, in certain refractory metal uses. Graphite can replace molybdenum for refractory elements in some electric furnaces. Chrome orange, cadmium red and organic orange pigments are substitutes for molybdenum orange. Most of the above alternatives to molybdenum suffer losses in efficiency. Heat treatment of alloy steels is an alternative to molybdenum.


Increased molybdenum recovery through improvement in efficiency of flotation techniques.

Development and application of new molybdenum-based steels and alloys particularly if resistance to oxidation at high temperatures was improved.

Nuclear and solar power equipment.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

By-product Concentrate 95% MoS2 $/1b 3.54 3.14 3.37 3.15 2.49 2.59

Climax Oxide molybdic oxide (producer price) 85.5% oxide min $/lb 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 4.24 2.65

Dealer Oxide molybdic trioxide, export $/lb (range) 2.35-5.55 2.35-4.5 2.75-4.1 2.55-4.35 2.5-3.55 2.52-3.18

Average 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.96

Real 1987 price 4.4 3.86 3.6 3.17 2.97 2.96

181

Molybdenum

Prior to 1979-80 upsurge molybdenum was mainly producer priced, with a dealer market that influenced producer price movements. The dealer market subsequently became much more important, and producers' effective prices followed the market. By-product material was normally sold at discounts from Climax price. Production cutbacks in early 1980s temporarily forced concentrate to a premium over oxide causing problems for independent roasters. Ferromolybdenum prices linked to concentrate price. Producer prices were reinstated by Cyprus Mines amd Amax in 1986.


Some 23 mines in USA, Canada, Chile, Mexicio and Peru account for most of the world's production, with Amax having about 25% of total capacity. Cyprus and Amax, Codelco the Chilean copper producer, have partially established control over the markets with Norunda. They purchase most of the by-product concentrate, as well as sell from their own mines.

182

Molybdenum

MOLYBDENUM Molybdic trioxide, export


120

100

90~--------r-------~--------.--------,--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

183

Molybdenum

SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN MAIN MARKET AREAS

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production (Mo content) 49 45900 Molybdic oxide inc. briquettes n/a n/a n/a 21642 (a) (a) Includes use to make other products

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates 19150 76608 19581 279 (Mo) Ferromolybdenum 325 2031 1027 459 (Mo) Other molybdenum products

(Mo content) 688 Oxides 270 96 399 Metal(unwrought) 146 139 69 76


Ores and concentrates Canada 8 18 14 European Community 35 19 Sweden 1 United States 37 49 30 China 6 Chile 2 18 37 Mexico 7 3 Peru 10 5 Others 2 1 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates 3650 11569 25631 (Mo) Ferromolybdenum 4750 1799(a) 362 Metal 518 84 5 356 Compounds 1352 2375 9260

(oxides) (inc. oxides)

(a) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) All forms (Mo content) 3740 21440 11340 16325

184

Molybdenum

UK EC{10) Japan USA

Imeort Deeendence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 Imports as % of consumption


Share of World Consumetion (%)

Western world 6 34 18 27

Consumetion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -3.5 2.3 4.4 3.1

185

NICKEL

WORLD RESERVES {'000 tonnes of contained nickel and% of total)


Australia 2085 (5.9} Botswana 410 {0.8} China 725 ( 1.4) Canada 7260 {13.8} Brazil 815 ( 1. 5) Cuba 18145 {34.4) Finland 35 {0.1) Colombia 590 ( 1.1) USSR 6620 {12.5} Greece 2360 {4.5} Dominican Rep. 725 ( 1.4) S Africa 2540 (4.8} Indonesia 3900 (7.4) USA 270 {0.5} New Caledonia 1815 {3.4} Others 2450 (4.6} Philippines 1815 {3.4}

Zimbabwe ~_lQ_d) --------Totals 17000 {32.2) 10250 {19.4} 25490 {48.3} Grand Total 52740

The world's reserve base is estimated at 100 million tonnes and, in addition to the above countries, includes deposits in Guatemala, Papua New Guinea and several African nations. The average grade of the reserves included exceeds 1% nickel.

Identified world resources of nickel in deposits averaging 1% nickel or more exceed 65 million tonnes of which 80% is in laterites. Resources of lower grade deposits are very large, and there are extensive sea bed resources of nickel in manganese nodules.

186

Nickel

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 ('000 tonnes of nickel and % of total)


Developed Australia 81.9 (10.4) 115 Canada 175.3 (22.3) 250 Finland 10.2 ( 1.3) 10 Greece 13.1 (1. 7) 26 Norway 0.6 ( .. ) n/a* S Africa 29.0 (3.7) 45 USA 3.4 (0.4) 15 Yugoslavia 3.0 (0.4) 27

Total 316.5 (40.2) 488

Developing Botswana 19.3 (2.5) 20 Brazil 13.4 ( 1. 7) 16 Burma 0.1 ( .. ) n/a* Colombia 16.5 (2.1) 24 Dominican Rep. 24.9 (3.2) 30 Guatemala 11 Indonesia 57.8 (7.3) 59 New Caledonia 68.5 (8. 7) 90 Philippines 20.3 (2.6) 40 Zimbabwe 11.1 ( 1.4) 15

Total 231.9 (29.5) 305

Centrall~ Planned Albania 10.0 ( 1. 3) 10 China 20.5 (2.6) 30 Cuba 34.4 (4.4) 80 USSR 171.0 (21.7) 170 Others 2.2 (0.3) n/a*

Total 238.1 (30.3) 290 Not specified 5

TOTAL 786.5 1088

* Included in 'not specified'.

187

Nickel

WORLD REFINED METAL PRODUCTION ('000 tonnes of nickel and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 41.4 (5.4) Brazil 13.4 ( 1.8) China Austria 2.0 (0.3) Colombia 15.2 (2.0) Cuba Canada 121.4 (15.9) Dominican Rep. 24.9 (3.3) USSR France 7.6 ( 1. 0) Indonesia 4.7 (0.6) Others Finland 16.8 (2.2) New Caledonia 34.5 (4.5) Greece 13.1 ( 1. 7) Philippines 8.7 (1.1) Japan 94.0 (12.3) Taiwan 5.3 (0. 7) Norway 37.9 (5.0) Zimbabwe 14.0 (1.8) S Africa 25.9 (3.4) UK 24.4 (3.2) USA 17.3 (2.3) Yugoslavia ___]_=.Q ~) ---Totals 404.8 (53.0) 120.7 (15.8) Grand Total 763.2

RESERVE/PRODUCTION RATIO

Static reserve life (years): 67 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 3.5 1 (land based only)

CONSUMPTION

21.0 (2.8) 16.6 (2.2)

189.0 (24.8) 11.1 ( 1. 5)

-----237.7 (31.1)

1985/86 Averages % p. a. growth rates '000 tonnes 1960s 1970s 1980-86

European Community 172.9 5.9 3.4 1.5 Japan 131.4 18.9 4.3 0.6 United States 134.0 3.2 1.8 -2.3 Others 132.6 11.0 5.7 6.1 Total Western world 570.9 7.0 3.4 1.4

Total world 783.2 6.9 3.6 1.5

188


Stainless and alloy steels Non-ferrous alloys Electroplating Others

USA Japan

36 33 20 11

59 14 13 14

Transport Chemical industry Electrical equipment Construction Fabricated metal products Other


$3.7 billion (refined metal at 1987 average LME prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Nickel

USA

25 15

9 9 9

23

The use of alternative materials tends to be more expensive or requires sacrifice in chemical or physical characteristics, and hence performance. However alternative materials are available to replace nickel in most of its uses. Alloy substitutes are normally other 'steel' industry metals such as molybdenum, columbium and manganese. Platinum, cobalt and copper can be used in some catalysts. Titanium and many plastics can compete for markets where corrosion-resistance is important. Cobalt can replace nickel in electroplating applications.


Deep sea nodules.

Development of new nickel-bearing alloys.

Substitution of nickel-based superalloys by ceramic components.

189

Nickel

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Cathode

US Producer $/lb 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 US Dealer $/lb 2.37 2.72 2.24 2.29 1.88 2.29 LME Cash i/tonne 2747.25 3088.86 3569.16 3836.12 2646.1 2949.22 US Producer $/lb Real 1987 price 3.34 3.29 3.23 3.22 3.34 3.25

Producer pricing with dealer market. Discounting in weak demand periods. Breakeven costs influenced by associated by-product revenues. A London Metal Exchange (LME) quotation was introduced in mid-1979 but it only became a significant market force in 1982. The LME has greatly weakened producer pricing arrangements although the majority of nickel is traded on producerconsumer contracts.


The influence of major producers has weakened in recent years although International Nickel (Inca) still retains over one-third of Western world market, with Falconbridge, !metal, Western Mining as other major producers. State participation in the industry is increasing, mainly through joint ventures. Dealer markets, including the LME, backed by substantial Western imports from Cuba and the USSR have dominated pricing in recent years. All major producers have managed to reduce their costs, sometimes substantially, and laterite mines have greatly benefited from lower energy prices in 1985/6.

190

NICKEL Cathode US dealer


110

105

/' / '

/ ' / '

/ ' 100~------------~--------------~--------------~

money terms ' / ~---...1

95

90~--------~------~~------~---------r------~

Nickel

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

191

Nickel


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Ni content) Mine production 13.1 3.4 Production of matte 3.4 Smelter/Refinery Production 24.35 45.6 94.0 17.25 of which

metal 24.35 32.5 24.25 17.25 ferro and nickel oxide sinter 13.1 69.75

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Ni content)

Ores and concentrates 57.35 Matte and mixed sulphides 29.25 38.3 41.75 14.55 Ferro and nickel oxide sinter

and meta 1 19.6 127.6 35.85 104.7


All forms Australia 7 11 14 10 Canada 64 26 5 47 European Community 7 1 3 Finland 4 3 1 4 Norway 2 5 2 15 S Africa 5 7 3 United States 2 4 1 Botswana 4 Colombia 1 3 1 1 Dominican Republic 2 3 2 5 Indonesia 1 1 38 New Caledonia 16 19 3 Philippines 2 9 1 Zimbabwe 2 2 2 2 USSR 3 13 3 Cuba 1 Others 3 1 1

192

Nickel

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Ni content) Ores and concentrates Matte and mixed sulphides 0.45 0.25 Ferro and nickel oxide

sinter and metal 12.2 16.35 1.6 9.2

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Ni content) All forms 26.1 172.9 131.4 134

Import Dependence

Imports as % of consumption 100 96 100 89 Imports as % of consumption




Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1960s 1.6 5.9 18.9 3.2 1970s -0.3 3.4 4.3 1.8

193

NIOBIUM



Canada 122 (3.0) Brazil 3220 (78.0) USSR 680 (16.5) Nigeria 65 ( 1. 6) Malaysia 1 ( .. ) Thailand 6 (0.1) Zaire ___E __j_Q_=.§_) --- ---

Totals Grand Total

122 (3.0) 4126

3324 (80.5) 680 (16.5)

The reserve base is 5 million tonnes, and world resources are estimated at some 17.25 million tonnes.

WESTERN WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of contained metal and% of total)

Developed Australia Canada

Total

Developing Brazil Malaysia Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Thailand Zaire Zimbabwe

Total

TOTAL

Mine Production

25 2282 2307

13041 12 1

23 4

47 41 5

13174

15481

(a) Includes Mozambique, Rwanda and Namibia.

% of Production

(0.2) ( 14. 7)

(14.9)

(84.2) ( .. ) ( .. )

(0.1) ( .. )

(0.3) (0.3)

( .. ) (85.1)

Productive Capacity

70 2270 2340

18145 90

n/a 205

n/a 270 70

___1Q. (a) 18870

21210 (b)

(b) A further 935 tonnes of productive capacity is believed to exist in USR and Europe.

The above production data are mostly US Bureau of Mines estimates based on the reported gross weight of production. Spain, Mozambique, Zambia, the USSR and China also produce, or are thought to produce, niobium but reliable estimates of output are not available 194



CONSUMPTION

Niobium

over 250

12 : 1

Reliable statistics are not available for most areas but broad orders of magnitude are as follows for contained niobium in all forms.

European Community Japan United States (a)


c. 3700 3019 3345

(a) Apparent consumption.


HSLA Steels 34 Carbon steels 28 Stainless + heat-resisting steels 16 Superalloys 20 Others 1



approx 5 to 8 12.1 4.1

c. 3 8.0

-0.8

$89 million (Western world only at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Vanadium, titanium and molybdenum in HSLA steels. Tantalum competes in superalloys. Titanium can be used in stainless steels. In high temperature applications, molybdenum, tungsten, tantalum and ceramics are alternatives.

Substitutes usually lower performance and/or cost effectiveness.

195

Niobium


Refinements in beneficiating and processing techniques are giving products of higher purity or different composition.

Continuing development of new steels, superalloys, superconductors for lowtemperature usage and super-conducting magnets.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Ore

Pyrochlore t/lb contained Cb205 325 325 325 325 260 260

Real 1987 price 334 330 323 322 267 260

Mainly producer price basis and nominal price changes are infrequent. Concentrate producers have low costs relative to prices. Outside of Canada and Brazil, most niobium is produced as a by-product of tin mining.


The Brazilian Araxa mine (Companhia Brasileria de Metalurgica e Mineracao) and Niobec in Canada are the major concentrate producers, and dominate the market. Most of the Brazilian material is processed into ferroniobium before export. Production of metal is usually in the hands of separate companies from the mining companies.

196

130

120

110

100

NIOBIUM Pyrochlore contained Cb20 5


real 1987 terms ----', money terms ' ,_ ---,

\ \ ~

Niobium

90~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

197

Niobium


Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production Ferroniobium:

approx. gross wt approx. Nb content

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and Concentrates

(gross wt)

Ferroniobium (gross wt)

Metal and alloys

UK

n/a n/a

720

22

EC(10)

n/a n/a

2037

n/a

60

(a)

(incl. wrought & waste & scrap)

(a) Includes tantalum ores and concentrates


Ores and Concentrates Australia Canada Brazil Nigeria Others

Ferroniobium European Community USA Chile Brazil

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates

(gross wt)

36 7

57

Ferroniobium (gross wt) 35 Metal compounds and alloys 8

2 94

4

1084 (a) n/a

76 (a) Includes tantalum ores and concentrates

198

Japan

966 628

1813

2397

n/a

90 7 3

1

1 98

USA

n/a n/a

1305 (Nb content 592)

2837 (Nb content 2048)

1

99

1

100

54

Niobium

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Niobium metal n/a n/a n/a n/a Ferroniobium (Nb content) 310 n/a n/a 2503

(iron & steel usage) Total all forms c. 330 c. 3700 c. 3019 3345



Share of World Consumption (%) Western world (approx.) 2 24 19 22

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) approx. 1970s -5 5 to 8 12.1 4.1

(ferro only)

199

PHOSPHATE

The following tables show the world's reserves, delimited using a production cost of less than $35 per tonne, and the world's reserve base, delimited using a production cost of less than $100 per tonne. A number of deposits currently being exploited are classified as in the reserve base using this definition.


Developed

S Africa USA

2500 (18.9) 1300 (9.8)

Totals 3800 (28.7)

Developing

Brazi 1 Christmas Is Jordan Morocco + W. Sahara Nauru Senegal Togo Tunisia Others

Grand Total 13255

40 30

120 7000

10 40 40 20

(0.3) (0.2) (0.9)

(52.8)

(0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2)

320 __lbi) 7620 (57.5)

This table uses production costs of under $35/tonne.

200

Centrally Planned

China USSR Others

210 (1.6) 1300 (9 .8)

325 (2.4)

-----1835 (13.8)

Phosphate

WORLD RESERVE BASE (million tonnes and% of total)


Australia 500 ( 1.4) Algeria 250 (0. 7) China 210 (0.6) Canada 40 (0.1) Brazil 350 (1.0) USSR 1300 (3.6) Finland 110 (0.3) Christmas Is 30 ( .. ) Other 325 (0.9) S Africa 2500 (6.9) Colombia 100 (0.3) Turkey 30 ( .. ) Egypt 800 (2.2) USA 5200 (14.4) Israel 190 (0.5)

Jordan 510 (1.5) Mexico 120 (0.4) Morocco 22000 (60.8) + W Sahara Nauru 10 ( .. ) Senegal 170 (0.5) Togo 20 (0.2) Tunisia 300 (0.8) Peru 140 (0.4) Syria 180 (0.5) Venezuela 10 ( .. ) Others ____llQ ~) ---------


This table uses production costs of under $100/tonne.

World resources are immense and deposits are now being discovered on the continental shelf.

201

Phosphate

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (million tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Finland 0.52 (0.4) Algeria 1.21 (0.9) China 8.24 (5.8) S Africa 2.68 ( 1. 9) Braz i 1 4.34 (3.1) N Korea 0.50 (0.4) Sweden 0.19 (0.1) Christmas Is 1.03 (0.7) USSR 32.35 (22.8) USA 44.77 (31.6) Egypt 0.76 (0.5) Vietnam 0.25 (0.2) Others 0.05 ( .. ) India 0.80 (0.6)

Iraq 1.00 (0.7) Israel 2.36 ( 1. 7) Jordan 6.16 (4.3) Mexico 0.79 (0.6) Morocco 20.98 (14.8) Nauru 1.50 ( 1.1) Senegal 1.84 (1. 3) Syria 1.42 ( 1. 0) Togo 2.38 (1. 7) Tunisia 5.15 (3.6) Zimbabwe 0.14 (0.1) Others 0.22 ~) ---- ----

Totals 48.21 (34.0) 52.08 (36.8) 41.34 (29.2) Grand Tota 1 141.63

WORLD PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985


S Africa 4.7 Algeria 2.3 China 16.0 USA 65.0 Christmas Is 1.8 USSR 35.0 Others 2.0 Israel 3.5 Others 1.0

Jordan 6.5 Mexico 0.6 Morocco & W

Sahara 30.0 Nauru 2.0 Senegal 2.1 Togo 3.2 Tunisia 7.0 Others 14.9

Totals 71.7 73.9 52.0 197.6

202



CONSUMPTION

European Community Japan United States Other Western world

Total Western world

Total world


13392 2221

33772 44170

93555

141566

very large

5 : 1

Source: British Sulphur Corporation Statistics


Fertilisers and animal feed supplements 93

Industrial and food grade products 7


Phosphate


-0.1 -0.9 5.5 9.1

5.2

5.7

-3.8 -3.1 -1.6 9.9

0.8

1.2

$5.4 billion (at average of 1987 price for Floridan and Moroccan rock).

SUBSTITUTES

No substitutes for agricultural applications.

Reduction in level of sodium tripolyphosphate in detergents by substitution with other compounds.


Mining of deep deposits.

203

Phosphate

PRICES

Florida, land pebble, export 74-75% BPL, $/st

Florida land pebble Real 1987 price

Moroccan 75-77% BPL fas Casablanca $/tonne

1982 1983

33.5 32.5

34.4 32.9

48.5 48.5

Note: Moroccan price is nominal only.

1984 1985 1986 1987

32.2 26.8 26.0 26.0

31.9 26.5 26.7 26.0

48.5 48.5 48.5 48.5

Prices are fixed on contract basis depending on quality and grade. Phosphate fertiliser contracts are usually short term in duration whilst acid business has annual contracts with six months' pricing. Actual prices are not published and the above are only guidelines. US prices usually lag behind Moroccan.


Fertiliser and acid markets now supplied mainly by large integrated producers, normally government controlled, with captive phosphate rock. Morocco, USSR and USA produce 70% of world production but new developments, including attendant acid and fertiliser plants, are coming onstream worldwide and are diversifying supply sources.

204

Phosphate

PHOSPHATE Florida land pebble 74-75% BPL


140

130

120

110

100

90~--------~-------.,-------~---------.--------, 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

205

Phosphate


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Mine production 44773

(marketable)

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Phosphate rock (gross) 1048 13044 2245 281 Superphosphates 245 866 50 3 Basic slag 5.3 1.4


Phosphate rock (gross} 1986 onl~ European Community 3 United States 19 54 Algeria 2 Israel 5 12 1 Jordan 2 13 Morocco 61 39 25 7 Senegal 25 5 3 S Africa 5 1 Syria 2 Togo 7 91 Tunisia 3 3 Others and unidentified 4 4 3 2

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Phosphate rock 2.0 16.7 9730 Superphosphates 0.7 121 15.6 1329 Basic slag 134

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Phosphate rock 1029 13392 2221 33772

206

Phosphate

UK EC(10) Japan USA

ImEort DeEendence Imports as % of consumption 100 97 100 Imports as % of consumption


Share of World ConsumEtion (%)

Total world 1 9 2 24 Western world 1 14 2 36

ConsumEtion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 0.6 1.7 0.8 4.3

(based on rock imports)

207

PLATINUM GROUP (Platinum, Palladium, Iridium, Osmium, Rhodium, Ruthenium)

WORLD RESERVES (tonnes and% of total)


Canada 250 (0.4} Colombia 49770 (88.7} Zimbabwe ~__j_QA)

very small

USSR 5900 (10.5} S Africa USA Totals Grand Total

50270 (89.5} 5900 (10.5} 56170

The different deposits of platinum group metals have markedly different ratios between the constituent metals. The US Bureau of Mines gives the following breakdowns for the main deposits (in percentage by weight}.

Platinum Pa 11 adium Iridium Rhodium Ruthenium Osmium

Colombia 93 1 3 2 Canada - Sudbury 43 45 2 4 4 S Africa - Merensky 61 26 1 3 8

- Bushveld 47 32 2 7 11 USSR - Norilsk 25 67 2 3 2 USA - Stillwater 20 78 1

- Duluth 18 78 1 2 1

The approximate breakdown of reserves between the different metals in the main deposits is as follows (in tonnes):

S Africa USSR Canada

Platinum 11975 1900 125 Palladium 7870 3730 125 Rhodium 1555 125 Others 3170 145 Totals 24570 5900 250

The world reserve base of platinum group metals is 66,000 tonnes and world resources are around 100,000 tonnes.

208

1 2 1 1 1

Platinum group

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 2 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 (kilograms and% of total)


Developed Australia 498 (0.2) 620 Canada 9613 (3.9) 18665 Finland 65 ( .. ) 310 Japan (a) 2083 (0.8) S Africa 113530 (46.3) 124415 USA 125 ( .. ) 310 Yugoslavia 105 ( .. ) 310

Total 126019 (51.3) 144630

Developing Colombia 368 (0.2) 620 Ethiopia 4 ( .. ) Indonesia n/a 50 Papua New Guinea n/a Philippines 620 Zimbabwe 48 ( .. ) 310

Total 420 (0.2) 1700

Centrall~ Planned China n/a 310 USSR 118975 (48.5) 124415

Total 118975 (48.5) 124725

TOTAL 245414 271055

(a) Japanese smelter/refinery recovery from ores originating elsewhere (including Australia, Canada, Papua New Guinea and Philippines), but this is not thought to result in substantial double counting.

The estimated breakdown of 1985's production was, in percentages:

Platinum Palladium Iridium Ruthenium Rhodium Osmium

42 47

2 5 3 1

209

Platinum group



CONSUMPTION (Platinum and Palladium)

Japan USA Other Western world Total Western world

1983/84 Averages kilograms

71695 63765 41525

176985

229

10 : 1


10.1 6.3 n/a n/a

5.8 2.8 7.2 4.9

Demand for other platinum group metals amounts to around 16,000 kilograms.

Source: Johnson Matthey.


USA Japan Platinum Palladium Rhodium Iridium Ruthenium Osmium Pt Grp. Pt Grp.

Automotive 64 16 72 2 1 38 Electrical 11 30 7 13 59 22 Chemical 8 4 5 7 24 2 7 Dental 2 38 1 3 98 19 Jewellery 1 1 3 9 1 1 Petroleum

refining 3 6 4 Others 11 6 11 66 15 9


$2.75 billion (at average 1987 prices for the various metals, weighted according to 1985 production split).

210

14 25 16 12 25

5

Platinum group

SUBSTITUTES

Usually easier to substitute metals of the platinum group for one another, especially in alloys, than to use alternate materials.

Substitutes in electrical uses include tungsten, nickel, silver, gold and silicon carbide.

Alternative catalysts include nickel, molybdenum, tungsten, chromium, cobalt, vanadium, silver and rare-earth materials, but normally with efficiency and cost penalties. However rhenium has been used most satisfactorily for part of platinum in petroleum-refining catalysts.

Stainless steel and ceramics can be used where corrosion resistance is of primary concern.


Recovery from radio-active waste and the creation of artificial platinum group metals in nuclear power reactors, but both seem improbable in the foreseeable future.

Increased recovery of PGM in automotive catalytic converters. The lean burn engine, reduced lead content in petrol and electric cars could reduce application in this field.

Use of tin-lead alloys as substitutes for precious metals in electronic applications.

A major area of growth is in fuel cells. The phosphoric acid fuel cell is technically well proven and industrial applications are developing rapidly.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

$/trot oz Platinum US Producer 475.0 475.0 475.0 475.0 527.1 600 Nymex Spot 327.2 425.7 358.8 293.1 466.3 559.0 US Producer Real 1987 price 487.5 487.2 471.0 470.2 541.1 600 Palladium: NY dealer 67.3 138.4 149.6 106.8 114.9 125.5 Iridium: NY dealer 367.5 314.9 429.8 446.1 421.4 367.9 Osmium: NY dealer 132.5 135.4 475.8 958.3 753.8 647.3 Rhodium: World 600 600 625 925.4 1190.1 1243.0 Ruthenium: NY dealer 26.7 29.4 106.3 105.8 75.9 72.3

* List price suspended.

211

Platinum group

Combination of producer and dealer pr1c1ng, with futures trading in the USA. Can be subject to speculative activity.


Most mining is in association with nickel-copper ores with the USSR, S Africa (Rustenburg and Impala), and Canada (Inco) to a lesser extent, controlling the market. All are integrated producers. S Africa controls producer price of platinum and USSR that of palladium, and can influence world spot price by curtailing production and purchasing excess metal. As usage of platinum group metals in automotive exhaust catalysts matures in the USA, there will be a rising supply of secondary material. This will however be more than offset by demands for primary material in Europe as European automotive emission standards are tightened in the late 1980s. Secondary recovery currently accounts for approximately 12% of total platinum supply.

212

100

90

80

PLATINUM US producer


rea; 798?• -- •errns -- .... ........

money terms

Platinum group

'----

70~--------~--------r-------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

213

Platinum group


Production (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms) Mine production Refinery production:

New metal Secondary metal

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms of Pt group) Ores and concentrates Waste and scrap Unwrought metal, inc. alloys Semi-manufactures, inc. alloys


Canada European Community S Africa Switzerland United States USSR Mexico Taiwan Others

UK

n/a n/a

EC(10)

n/a n/a

Japan

2083

USA

125

638 37807

73000 gross n/a 18000 gross n/a

n/a n/a

50226 28936

65 19728 107471 5868

22500 28500 16500

A 11 forms Unwrought & semi- A 11 forms manufactures & alloys

16 1 9 15 13 31 50 30 36 44 9 26 2 1 5 14 9

20 36 7 3

3 1 5 9 1 4

Most ores and concentrates imported into the UK for refining are from South Africa, whose importance is thus much greater in world trade than this table suggests.

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms) Unwrought & semi-manufactures inc. alloys, ores & concentrates 55000

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms) n/a

32000 3128

n/a 88000 Note: These are from a different source from the data shown earlier.

214

25495

98103

Platinum group

UK EC(10) Japan USA

lmEort DeEendence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 98 100

(exc. secondary) Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 100 100 98 100 (exc. secondary)

Share of World ConsumEtion (%) Insufficient information is published to complete this section, especially bearing in mind the large secondary recovery of platinum group metals.

ConsumEtion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a

215

n/a 10.1 6.3

POTASH

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes K20 and% of total)

Developed

Canada France W Germany Italy Spain UK USA Totals Grand Total

1300 {18.6) 40 {0 .6)

500 {7.1) 30 {0.4) 40 {0.6) 25 {0.4)

_§Q~)

1995 {28.5)

Developing

Brazil Chile Israel Jordan Others (a)

7000

60 ( 0. 9) 10 {0.1)

300 ( 4.3) 300 ( 4.3) 335 {4.8)

1005 (14.4)

Centrally Planned

China E Germany USSR

200 (2.9) 800 {11.4)

3000 {42.9)

4000 {57.1)

(a) Bolivia, Ethiopia, Laos, Mexico, Peru, Tunisia and Thailand.

The world's reserve base is estimated at approximately 18,000 million tonnes, of which 54% is located in Canada and 21% in the USSR. Total world resources exceed 250,000 million tonnes, much of it only recoverable through solution mining techniques due to depth.

216

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 1 1985/86 1 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 1 1985 (million tonnes of K20 and % of total)

Mine Production

Developed Canada France W Germany Italy Spain UK USA

Total

Developing Chile Israel Jordan

Total

Centrall~ Planned China E Germany USSR

Total

TOTAL



6.82 1.68 2.37 0.18 0.68 0.37 1.25

13.35

0.02 1.18 0.61 1.81

0.04 3.46 9.98

13.48

28.64

over 300

19 : 1

217

% of Production

(23.8) (5.9) (8.3) (0.6) (2.4) ( 1.3) (4.4)

(46.6)

(0.1) (4.1) (2.1) (6.3)

(0.1) (13.1) (34.8) (47.1)

Potash

Productive Capacity

9.78 1.75 2.70 0.23 0.70 0.40 1. 79

17.41

0.03 1.30 0.70 2.03

0.03 3.50

10.97 14.50

33.94

Potash

CONSUMPTION

1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes K20

European Community Japan United States Other Countries Western world Total world


4260 600 ( approx. )

5095 5235

15190 25620

Fertiliser industry 95 Other (primarily caustic potash-

chlorine plants) 5


$1.2 billion (at average 1987 prices)

SUBSTITUTES


1.5 (approx.) 1.0 4.5

n/a n/a n/a

0.4 -3.3 -4.4 n/a -0.5 1.0

Potash used in industrial applications can sometimes be replaced by sodium compounds.

No substitutes for agricultural use.


Recovery from low grade resources or as a by-product in the production of alumina from alunite.

New industrial applications, eg: electrical plants.

Extensive and intensive cropping changes. The effect of fertiliser pollution on water supplies could reduce potash consumption especially in developing countries.

218

PRICES

Saskatchewan Standard $/st

Real 1987 prices

1982

111.5

114.4

1983

63.3

64.3

1984

55

54.6

1985

51.25

50.73

1986

41.0

42.1

Producer list pricing for long term contracts. Discounting prevalent.

Potash

1987

38.0

38.0

The United States, producers temporarily obtained protection against Canadian imports via dumping duties in late 1987, being some pro-rating of Canadian production and higher prices.


USSR, E Germany, N America and W Europe provide almost all the world's supply of potash. USSR production fluctuates considerably with consequent effect on world market. A high proportion of Canadian production, second after USSR, is controlled by provincial government (Saskatchewan). The potash market is highly dependent on the state of the world farming economy.

219

Potash

300

250

200

150

POTASH Saskatchewan standard


100~--------~--------~-------,---------r------~~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

220

Potash


UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes K20) 372 4610 1249

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) A 11 forms (K20) 265 1215 n/a 4402

( approx.) ( approx.) Potassium chloride (gross wt) 1054 7147 Under 40% K20 25 n/a n/a 40-60% K20 504 2347 n/a n/a Over 60% K20 19 35 n/a n/a Potassium sulphate (gross wt) 6.85 21 185 51

Source of Net Imports (%) (KCl only) (KCl only)

Canada 5 13 47 92 European Community 37 17 1 Spain 1 9 United States 1 8 East Germany 47 27 4 1 USSR 8 23 18 Israel 2 22 1 5 Jordan 6 3 Others 1 2

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) All forms (K20) 43 585 530

( approx.) ( approx.) Potassium chloride (gross wt) 139 704 Under 40% K20 0.3 13 40-60% K20 85 744 Over 60% K20 1 17 Potassium sulphate (gross wt) 0.5 382 123

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes K20) 517 4260 600 5095

( approx.)

221

Potash

UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Im~ort De~endence

Imports as % of consumption 51 29 n/a 86 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 47 25 n/a 78

Share of World Consum~tion (%) Total world 2 17 2 20 Western World 3 28 4 34

Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -0.7 1.5 1.0 4.5

(approx)

222

RARE EARTH MINERALS & METALS

WORLD RESERVES

The rare earth elements are the group of 15 chemically similar elements with atomic numbers between 57 and 71 incusive: lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium (together making up the 'light' or 'cerium' subgroup), gladolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium and lutetium (which together with yttrium, not itself a rare earth element but invariably associated with them in nature, make up the 'heavy' or 'yttrium' subgroup).

The main sources of rare earths are the ores bastnaesite (a fluorocarbonate) and monazite (a phosphate). Small quantities also occur in the mineral xeriotime, but this is primarily a source of yttrium.

{'000 tonnes of Rare Earth Oxides (REO) and% of total)

Developed

Australia 345 {0.8) Canada 164 {0.4) S Africa 357 {0.8) USA 5500 (12.2) Others 50 {0.1)

-----Totals 6416 (14.2) Grand Total

The reserve base contains

Developing

Brazil 20 ( .. ) Egypt 100 (0.2) India 1800 (4.0) Madagascar 50 {0.1) Malawi 297 (0.7) Malaysia 30 {0.1) S Korea 45 {0.1) Others _1§_ ___(QJ_)

2370 {5.3) 45236

47 million tonnes of REO.

Centrally Planned

China USSR

36000 {79.5) 450 {1.0)

36450 (80.5)

The rare earths occur in many other minerals and are recoverable as by-products from phosphate rock and from spent uranium leaching. World resources are thought to be very large.

223

Rare Earth Minerals & Metals

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of REO content and% of total)

Developed Australia USA (inc monazite)

Total

Developing Brazi 1 India Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand Zaire

Total

Centralll Planned China USSR

Total

TOTAL

Mine Production

8170 14250 22420

965 2200 3800 120 250

7335

6700 1500 8200

c 38000

% of Production

{21.6) (37.5)

(59.1)

(2.5) (5.8)

(10.0) (0.3) (0.7)

(19.3)

(17.6) (4.0)

(21.6)

Productive Capacity

10000 29000 39000

1200 5800 4500 180 250 180

12110

20100 1500

21600

72710

Indonesia, Nigeria and N Korea may also produce rare earth concentrates.


The data are not sufficiently complete for precise estimates. The varying proportions of the different elements in each deposit also reduce the relevance of overall averages. These are, nonetheless, roughly as follows:

Static reserve base life (years): Ratio of reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:

very substantial

about 60 : 1

224

CONSUMPTION


1985/86 Averages (tonnes of REO)

n/a 4054

11950 (apparent)


Petroleum cracking catalysts 31 Metallurgical uses 37 Ceramics and glass 29 Others, including phosphors,

electronics, nuclear energy and lighting 3

SUBSTITUTES



n/a n/a 5.2

n/a n/a -6.9

Available in many applications but usually at the expense of performance.


Increased use in X-ray screens, glass screens of colour TV tubes, fluorescent lamps, permanent magnets and electronics (including computers).

Use in alloys to store hydrogen in fuel cells and heat exchangers and as cryogenic refrigerants.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Ore - Bastnaesite us ¢/lb 105 105 105 105 105 105

Monazite A$/L T 415.0 425.0 444.2 588.3 875.3 748.3

Real 1985 price 425.9 431.5 441.3 582.3 898.3 748.3

Most rare earths are sold in the form of mixed rare earth compounds. Prices are usually set by major producers but vary widely according to purity, source, availability, size of order and nature of contract.

225



Principal producers of rare earth concentrates are the US, Australia, Malaysia, Brazil, India, China and USSR, accounting for 95% of world REO production. Refinery production and consumption are concentrated in the US, UK, Japan, France (and possibly, USSR). High purity compounds and metal are traded largely among the industrialised countries.

226

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

RARE EARTHS Monazite


" "

'I 'I


50~--------r--------r--------.-------~--------. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

227



UK

Mine Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes REO)

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Monazite

Rare earth oxides Rare earth metals inc. alloys Ferrocerium & other

pyrophoric alloys Other rare earth compounds

(a) 1986 only


Monazite Australia India Rare earth oxides Austria European Community Japan Norway USA Malaysia China USSR Others

Metals and alloys Austria European Community USA Brazil China USSR Others and undefined

n/a

n/a 31

16 2237 (a)

228

EC(lO)

n/a

n/a 427

n/a

74

1 11

14

Japan

n/a

961 96

30 5222

1 28

24 1

43 2 1

6 8

38 47

USA

14250

2380 (REO content)

251 142

104 148

97 3

78 4 2

9 6 2

19

74 2 4 1


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Net Exports {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates n/a n/a n/a 3926

(REO content) Metals and alloys 48.5 65 262(a) Ferrocerium and other

pyrophoric alloys 11.5 n/a 26 (REO content)

(a) Including alkali and alkaline earth metals

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) (REO content) n/a n/a 4054 11950

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 c. 20 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 100 100 100 c. 15


Total world n/a n/a n/a c. 37

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a n/a 5.2

229

RHENIUM

WORLD RESERVES (tonnes of metal and% of total)


Canada 320 (10.7) Chile 1180 (39.4) USSR 225 (7.5) USA 1000 (33.4) Peru 180 (6.0)

Others ----- _19_~) ---Totals 1320 (44.1) 1450 (48.4) 225 Grand Total 2995

Rhenium is obtained as a by-product of molybdenite in porphyry copper operations. The reserve base is 10,300 tonnes of which over 80% is in Canada, the USA and Chile.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (kilograms and % of total 1985/86 Averages)

(7.5)

Note: These figures refer to recoverable rather than contained production.

Developed

Canada USA

Totals Grand Total

2009 (9) 4130 (20)

6139 (29)

Developing

Chile Mexico Peru Iran

20839

7000 (34) 1000 (5) 1400 ( 7) llOO _ill

10500 (51)

Source: Intermet Molybdenum Database 1987. A Sutulov

WORLD REFINERY CAPACITY, 1987

Centrally Planned

USSR 4200 (20)

4200 (20)

World refinery capacity totals some 27,000 kg, of which 6,400 kg are located in the USA and 5400 kg in Chile. Other major refiners, using imported concentrates, are W Germany (43,00 kg), Finland, (4,175 kg), Japan (1,200 kg), Sweden (900 kg), France (250 kg), UK (500 kg), Belgium (250 kg) and the USSR (3,600 kg). Some of the plants in the USA and W Germany are not operating.

Production of rhenium by final producers totalled 17,360 kg in 1985/6. (Chile 5,500 kg, W Germany 1,770 kg, USSR 4,100 kg, Poland through Finland 4,200 kg, USA 1,100 kg, Others 2,500 kg).

230


Static reserve life (years) Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000

CONSUMPTION

Rhenium

143

35 : 1

Data on rhenium consumption are scarce. United States consumption averaged 5,900 kilograms in 1985/86. It increased at an average compound rate of 7.2% per annum in the 1970s, and 10% p.a. from 1980-86. Japanese consumption in 1985/86 was c. 440 kilograms.


Petroleum refining Other

90 10

VALUE OF CONTAINED METAL IN ANNUAL REFINED PRODUCTION

$18 million (contained metal at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Non-rhenium catalysts are becoming more common. Iridium, gallium, germanium and silicon are among the metals being evaluated.

Substitutes in other applications are cobalt and tungsten for coatings on Xray tubes, rhodium and rhodium-iridium for high temperature thermocouples, tungsten and platinum-ruthenium for coatings on electrical contacts and tungsten and tantalum for electron emitters.


Use in high temperature applications such as nickel-base alloys, especially in aircraft engine components.

Radiation screens, semi-conductors, resistors, small electromagnets, heat shields, diverse catalytic reactions are all possible new uses.

Changes in petroleum refining techniques are having a detrimental effect on rhenium consumption at refineries but there is potential for a significant increase in the use of rhenium in car exhaust catalysts with the move to unleaded petrol.

231

Rhenium

PRICES

US Metal Powder 99.99% $/lb

US Metal Powder Real 1987 price

Perrhenic acid $/lb

1982

410

421

375

1983

300

304

250

1984

300

297

200

1985

300

299

200

1986

350

359

200

1987

475

475

300

Rhenium is largely a by-product of molybdenite which itself is recovered with or from porphyry copper ores. Production therefore is mainly dependent on Cu-Mo industry. Demand is heavily dependent on requirements of the petroleum industry. Dealer market.


Main sources of ore are Chile, Canada, USA and USSR, but recovery is concentrated in USA, Germany, Sweden, Chile and USSR.

232

Rhenium

RHENIUM US metal powder 99.99%


100

90

80

70

60~------~--------~------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

233

Rhenium


Production (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms)

UK EC(10)

Mine output Refined output negligible 2200

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms of contained rhenium) Metal c. 2000(a) Ammonium perrhenate n/a

(a) 1986 only

Source of Net Imports (%) (metal, perrhenic acid & ammonium perrhenate) European Community Most

Chile Others Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms) Metal c. 1000(a) (a) 1986 only

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (kilograms contained rhenium) n/a

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 100 (a) Based on mine output


Total world n/a

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a

234

( approx.)

n/a n/a

Figures not available

(ores mainly from Canada, Chile & Peru)

n/a

n/a

100

100

n/a

n/a

Japan

n/a

n/a n/a

Figures not available

440

100

100

3

n/a

USA

4855 1100

( approx.)

2367 3518

25

68 7

5900

19 (a)

19 (a)

34

7.2

SELENIUM


Developed

Australia Canada USA Others

Totals Grand Total

2 (2 .4) 11 (13.3) 12 (14.4) 3 (3.6)

28 (33.7)

Developing

Chile Mexico Papua N. Guinea Peru Philippines Zaire Zambia Others

83

17 (20.5) 4 (4.8) 1 (1.2) 3 (3.6) 3 (3.6) 6 (7.2) 7 (8.4) ___£~)

47 (56.6)

Centrally Planned

Poland USSR Others

2 (2.4) 4 (4.8) 2 (2.4)

8 (9.6)

The reserve base is 130.000 tonnes. Selenium occurs as a by-product with copper. and the above figures only cover the estimated content of economic copper deposits. Substantial resources exist in association with other metals and coal deposits and in currently uneconomic copper deposits.

WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION (tonnes of metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages)

Selenium is recovered mainly from the anode slimes obtained from electrolytic refining of copper. Because the selenium content of copper ore varies widely it is impossible to estimate mine production accurately. The following figures cover refinery output.


Australia n/a Chile 45 USSR n/a Belgium 68 India 4 Canada 348 Mexico 41 Finland 17 Peru 13 W Germany n/a Zambia 17 Japan 462 Sweden 65 USA 170 Yugoslavia 46 Totals 1176 120 Grand Total 1296

Note: Because the totals are incomplete no percentages are shown. Total world mine production has probably been around 1.900-2.000 tonnes and total refined output some 1.200 to 1.600 tonnes in recent years. In 1986 output was well up on 1985. level at 1.455 tonnes.

235

Selenium

Selenium is recovered in Canada and the UK from used electronic and photocopier components and recycled. The USA exports material to UK for recovery.


Western world refinery capacity is 2,310 tonnes concentrated in the USA (500 tonnes), Canada (650 tonnes), Japan (550 tonnes) and W Europe (430 tonnes).


Static reserve life (years): very large Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000:

CONSUMPTION

3.7 : 1




600 328 552

Electronic and photocopier components Glass manufacturing Chemicals and pigments Other


USA

35 30 25 10


n/a 1.0

-5.0

Japan

61 15 8

16

n/a 7.7 6.5

W. world

30-35 20

25-30 20

$16.5 million (Western world refined metal at 1987 average prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Substitutes exist in most end uses. Organic chemicals are used in photocopying machines, silicon substitutes in rectifier applications and cerium in glass manufacturing. Lead, bismuth and tellurium may be used in steel applications.

236

Selenium


Hydro-metallurgical processes for leaching copper sulphide concentrates to recover copper would mean that selenium could not be recovered.

Increased recovery from flue dust and scrap. New uses utilising electrophotographic properties. Toxicity will limit use in pigments.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

European free market cif

Real 1985 price


3.7

3.8

4.1

4.2

9.2

9.1

7.4

7.3

5.54

5.69

5.76

5.76

Selenium is derived from anode slimes obtained from refining of copper and production is therefore independent of demand. There have been both producer pricing and a dealer market with the former having almost ceased to exist in the recent period of oversupply.


Canada, Chile and the USA are the largest mine producers, Canada and Japan the two largest refinery producers. The Selenium-Tellurium Development Association promotes interest in new uses of these two metals.

237

Selenium

160

140

120

100

80

SELENIUM European free Mkt cif


60~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

238

Selenium


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes contained selenium) Mine production n/a Refinery production (Belgium) 462 170

68 of which (West Germany) c. 90

n/a secondary

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes contained selenium) Metal 405 350 10 393

(inc. waste and scrap)


Metal Canada 20 38 4 31 European Community 50 19 43 Finland 2 2 Japan 9 25 20 Sweden 3 3 United States 6 6 2 Chile 1 1 Philippines 50 3 South Korea 25 Others 10 25 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes contained selenium) Metal 133 75 222 158

(inc. waste and scrap)

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes contained selenium) c. 275 c. 500 328 552

239

Selenium

UK EC(10)

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 100 100 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 100 100 (a) Allowing for import of original raw material, totally self sufficient in refined output.

Share of World Consumption (%) Western world (approx.)


17 31

1970s 2.6 n/a (based on net imports)

240

Japan USA

(a) 100 (a) 71

(a) 100 (a) 55

but partially or

21 35

1.0 -5

SILICON

WORLD RESERVES

Silicon is an important constituent of quartzite and other sandstones. There are ample reserves in most major producing countries in relation to demand. Estimates of total reserves, and of their geographical distribution, are not available.

WORLD PRODUCTION OF SILICON METAL ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Canada France Italy Norway Portugal S Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland USA Yugoslavia Totals Grand Total

Developing

26 (4.1) Brazil 70 (11.0) India 13 (2.0)

101 (15.9) 9 (1.4)

35 (5.5) 62 (9. 7) 20 (3.1) 2 (0.3)

111 (17 .5) ~_lbl)

488 (76.7) 636

241

33 (5.2) 3 (0.5)

36 ( 5. 7)

C~trally Planned

China 22 (3.5) Czecho s 1 ovak i a 5 (0.8) E Germany 4 (0.6) Hungary 2 (0.3) Poland 11 (1. 7) USSR 63 (9.9) Romania 5 (0.8)

112 (17.6)

Silicon

WORLD PRODUCTIVE CAPACITIES~ SILICON METAL AND FERROSILICON, 1985 ('000 tonnes of silicon content)

Developed Developing Centrally Planned Metal FeSi Metal FeSi Metal FeSi

Australia 19 Argentina 13 China 24 163 Canada 43 93 Braz i 1 40 163 N Korea 25 France 73 134 Egypt 46 USSR 73 512 W Germany 12 37 India 7 59 E Europe 25 123 Iceland 41 Mexico 21 Italy 24 80 Philippines 21 Japan 252 S Korea 34 Norway 87 308 Taiwan 27 Portugal 41 23 Venezuela 53 S Africa 36 81 Zimbabwe 36 Spain 25 75 Others 5 Sweden 21 USA 166 328 Yugoslavia 45 78 Others 8 6 Totals 581 1555 47 478 122 823

Total world capacity: Si metal 750 FeSi 2856

Ferrosilicon includes silvery pig iron and other silicon additives.

242

Silicon

WORLD PRODUCTION OF FERROSILICON ('000 tonnes and % of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 17 (0.5) Argentina 19 (0.6) Bulgaria 15 (0.5) Canada 86 (2.6) Braz i 1 204 (6.2) China 195 (5.9) France 196 (6.0) Colombia 1 ( .. ) Czecho-W Germany 104 (3.2) Egypt 7 (0.2) sl ov ak i a 29 (0.9) Iceland 63 ( 1. 9) India 40 ( 1. 2) E Germany 24 (0. 7) Italy 63 ( 1. 9) Mexico 22 (0. 7) Hungary 9 (0.3) Japan 129 (3.9) Philippines 20 (0.6) N Korea 30 (0.9) Norway 369 (11.2) S Korea 33 ( 1. 0) Poland 51 (1. 5) Portugal 7 (0.2) Taiwan 15 (0.5) USSR 775 (23.5) S Africa 79 (2.4) Venezuela 44 ( 1. 3) Romania 50 ( 1. 5) Spain 61 ( 1. 9) Zimbabwe 52 ( 1. 6) Sweden 27 (0.8) Switzer 1 and 3 (0.1) Turkey 7 (0.2) USA 354 (10.8) Yugoslavia ~~) --- -----Totals 1657 (50.3) 457 (13.9) 1178 (35.8) Grand Total 3292

The silicon content of ferrosilicon varies widely. The average in the USA in 1986 was 53% but varied from 25-55%. Capacities in the previous table show estimated silicon contents.


For practical purposes so large as to be infinite.

CONSUMPTION

Si 1 icon metal European Community Japan United States


160 103 113

Ferrosilicon (gross weight) European Community 665

145 286

Japan United States

3


n/a 10.3 6.9

2 approx. 5 0.8

n/a 5.9

n/a -16.4 -5.8

Silicon


Transport Machinery Construction Chemicals Other

32 17 13 20 18

This covers the usage of silicon in all forms.


$4.0 billion (at average 1987 prices of silicon and ferrosilicon).

SUBSTITUTES

Aluminium is among the alternatives for ferrosilicon as a deoxidiser in steel but at higher cost and production of side effects. Aluminium-silicon alloys can be replaced by some other aluminium alloys.

Germanium can be used in semiconductor and infra-red applications.


Expansion of use in alloys particularly as a substitute for expensive additives such as chromium. Research in electronics is increasing use and demand for high purity silicon. Development of economically competitive silicon photovoltaic cells would increase demand also, although no major breakthrough seems likely at the moment.

Silicon faces a potential threat in the mass electronic chip market from gallium arsenide, but this is a small market for silicon. The total demand for high grade silicon from which chips are made is some 5,000 tonnes/year in the Western world.

Further development of high performance silicon-base ceramics as a substitute for superalloys and other metals in high temperature or highly corrosive situations.

244

Silicon

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

Metal UK 98% min £/tonne 650 701.3 862.5 953.3 863.1 (Source: Metal Bulletin)

Metal US 0.35% Fe/0.07% Ca ¢/lb 69.8 60.1 66.9 68.7 68.1

Metal US Real 1987 price 71.6 61.0 66.5 67.9 69.9

Ferrosilicon US Producer 75-77% Si ¢/lb 45.3 42.8 42.4 42.9 43.5

Prices mainly determined on contract basis of 3-6 months. Energy costs important.


Wide range of companies involved from integrated producers to one phase operators. Increasingly, location of ferrosilicon and silicon metal smelters in low power cost countries. Tendency also towards plant specialisation.

245

1987

865

68.1

68.1

42.3

Silicon

SILICON US, Metal, 0.35% Fe/0.07% Ca


85

80,~--------r-------~--------~------~~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

246

Silicon



Production {1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Silicon metal 83 111 Ferrosilicon 449 129 354

Net Imports {1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Si 1 icon metal 35.3 90.1 103.4 46.3 Ferrosilicon 75.7 316 328 189.2

(Si content = 118)


Silicon Metal Canada 2 5 24 European Community 48 11 11 Norway 26 56 18 1 Portugal 2 2 10 S Africa 19 15 13 6 Spain 4 2 Sweden 4 9 6 3 Switzerland 6 1 United States 1 1 Yugoslavia 5 2 7 Argentina 6 Brazil 4 11 28 China 27 Others 2 1 1

F erros i1 icon Australia 1 Canada 4 17 European Community 11 6 3 Iceland 6 7 5 Norway 70 47 27 18 Portugal 1 S Africa 2 2 8 3 Spain 1 Sweden 5 1 Yugoslavia 5 6 1 USSR 4 3 8

247

Silicon

UK EC(10) Japan USA

China 4 Argentina 2 2 Brazil 1 21 22 Philippines 4 Venezuela 1 5 18 Others and unidentified 6 37 1 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes) Si 1 icon metal 1.35 14.6 3.4 Ferrosilicon 2.7 98.3 (a) 1.0 11.0 (a) Gross W German exports included, which may go mainly to EEC countries

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Silicon metal c. 34 c. 158 Ferrosilicon c. 73 c. 667


Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption:

Silicon metal 100 57 Ferrosilicon 100 47

Imports as % of consumption and net exports: Silicon metal 100 52 Ferrosilicon 100 41 All forms (Si content) 100 44

Share of World Consumption (%) Total world (approx. based

Silicon metal on production figures)

Ferrosilicon

Consumption growth (% p.a.) 1970s total of which: Silicon metal

Ferrosilicon

5 25 2 20

-2 2.9

-5.2

248

n/a n/a

2 (approx.)

103 145

100 100

100 100 100

16 4

5.8 10.3

5

113 286

41 66

40 64 58

18 9

2.4 6.9 0.8

SILVER

WORLD RESERVES {'000 tonnes and% of total)


Australia 24 {9.8) Mexico 43 {17.6) Canada 36 {14.8) Peru 21 (8.6) USA 29 (11.9) Others 25 (10.3) Others _g~) ---Totals 101 {41.4) 89 {36.5) Grand Total 244

The reserve base is approximately 336,000 tonnes.

Centrally Planned

USSR Others

44 (18.0) 10 {4.1)

54 {22.1)

Identified world resources are estimated at 770,000 tonnes. The greater part of reserves and resources is associated with base metals such as copper, lead and zinc.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (tonnes of metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Australia Canada Japan S Africa Spain Sweden USA Yugoslavia Others Totals Grand Total

Developing

1048 {7 .8) 1208 {9.0) 346 (2.6) 215 {1.6) 188 {1.4) 243 (1.8)

1145 {8.5)

Bolivia Chile Mexico Morocco Peru Others

167 {1.2) (a) 226 _l.Ll)

4786 {35.6) 13449

(a) Smelter production

249

103 {0.8) 509 {3.8)

2307 (17.2) 152 {1.1)

1917 {14.3) 731 (5.4)

5719 (42.5)

Centrally Planned

Poland USSR Others

830 ( 6. 2) 1610 (12.0)

504 {3. 7)

2944 {21.9)

Silver

PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (major producers) (tonnes of metal}


Australia 1340 Mexico Canada 2020 Peru Japan 435 USA 1805 Totals 5600

2490 2020

4510

Centrally Planned

USSR 1930

1930

The above countries account for 75% of world capacity (c. 16,020 tonnes).

WESTERN WORLD SILVER SUPPLIES (tonnes of metal}

Mine production

Secondary sources of supply US Treasury Other governments Demonetized coin Indian stocks Salvage and other miscellaneous

sources Liquidation of (additions to)

private bullion stocks Net trade with Centrally Planned economies

Total other supplies

Available for world consumption

1984

9872

93 62

124 700

2336

(1328}

(600}

1387

11259

Source: The Silver Market 1986, Handy & Harman


Static reserve life (years): 18 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative primary demand 1987-2000: 2.1 : 1

1985 1986

9729 9496

137 295 156 124

93 31 650 345

2246 2022

(1605} 666

100 (435}

1776 3048

11505 12544

This ignores substantial secondary recovery and above ground stocks.

250

Silver

CONSUMPTION



Industrial uses European Community (a) Japan United States Other Countries

2974 2406 3832 2264

Total industrial usage 11476

Coinage 552

Total consumption (W world) 12028

Source: Handy & Harman reports on silver

-1.9 3.9 0.8 5.2 1.1

-2.6

0.8

(a) Belgium, France, W Germany, Italy and United Kingdom only.


This covers only industrial uses and excludes 'investment' demand.

Photography Electrical and electronic components Sterlingware and electroplated ware* Brazing alloys and solders Other

USA

47 26 6 5

15

* A higher percentage in less industrialised countries.


$3.0 billion (mine production at average 1987 prices).

251

-1.3 4.3 0.4 5.0 1.4

8.9

1.8

Japan

56 9 6 5

25

Silver

SUBSTITUTES

Stainless steel is an economic alternative in table flatware. Aluminium and rhodium are used for reflecting surfaces. Tantalum is a substitute for surgical plates. pins and sutures.

Silver has been replaced in coinage in many countries by cupro-nickel. cupro-zinc. nickel and aluminium.

Gold or platinum group metals can be substituted for silver in electrical and electronic components. increasing resistance to oxidation. Silverless black and white film and xerography have replaced silver-containing films in some applications. Video and ultrasonic scanning threaten silver based photographic film in some uses.


Improvements in solid-state switching and in electroplating and cladding technology will extend life of electronic equipment. decreasing demand.

Replacement of silver batteries by lithium batteries.

Development of non-silver brazing alloys.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

LME Cash $/troy oz 7.92 11.47 8.12 6.18 6.09 7.07

LME Cash Real 1987 price 8.13 11.64 8.07 6.12 6.25 7.07

Handy & Harman New York $/troy oz 7.95 11.44 8.14 6.14 5.47 7.02

LME Cash Monthly range £/troy oz 3.17- 5.98- 5.61- 4.05- 3.18- 3.78-

6.54 9.12 6.5 5.55 4.46 5.3

Price result from the interaction of supply and demand with variable. and sometimes considerable. speculative activity.

252

Silver


A fairly small share of newly mined silver is from predominantly silver ores, most gold being derived as by-product of gold, copper, lead and zinc. Demand exceeds primary supply and the deficit is supplied by secondary sources of various types. US stockpile excesses overhang the market.

253

Silver

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

SILVER LME cash


80~--------r--------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

254

Silver


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production 1.7 190.6 345.6 1145.5 Refinery production:

New n/a n/a n/a 1496 Secondary (old scrap) c. 320 n/a c. 460 793

Net Im2orts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates n/a n/a 140.7 Unwrought (inc. scrap) 1948 3100 472 399.4 Wrought (inc. partly worked) 107 124 44 4086.5

Source of Net Im2orts (%)

Metal all forms Australia 7 4 5 Canada 1 31 European Community 41 21 S Africa 3 2 Spain 4 4 Sweden 3 5 Switzerland 2 11 3 United States 4 29 7 Yugoslavia 1 2 E Germany 18 12 N Korea 1 Poland 9 Chile 1 3 4 Hong Kong 7 1 Mexico 2 59 30 Peru 4 3 23 7 S Korea 5 Others and unspecified 4 12 1 3

255

Silver

Net Exports {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates Unwrought (inc. scrap) Wrought (inc. partly worked)

Consumption {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Industrial

Coinage

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption

UK

1387.5 309

615

(exc. coinage) 100 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports (exc. coinage) 84

Share of World Industrial Consumption (%) Western world 5

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -0.7

EC{10)

1774 751

3300 (approx.)

94

Japan

34.5 27.5

2375

22

53 21 {approx.) (excludes

imported ores)

29 21

-1.9 3.9

USA

8.6 413.6 353.3

3694

121

100

100

32

0.8

Note: Some of the figures in this table (e.g. on consumption) differ from those of earlier tables, derived from different sources.

256

SULPHUR



Canada 150 (11. 7) Iraq 150 (11.7) China 25 (2.0) France 15 ( 1. 2) Mexico 80 (6.2) Poland 130 (10.1) W Germany 20 ( 1.6) Near East 60 ( 4. 7) USSR 350 (2.2) Italy 10 (0.8) Others 65 (5.1) Others 15 ( 1. 2) Japan 5 (0.4) Spain 20 ( 1. 6) USA 155 (12.1) Others ~~) --- ---Totals 410 (31.9) 355 (27.6) 520 (40.5) Grand Total 1285

The reserve base is 2,700 million tonnes with major deposits located in Canada, Iraq, the Near East, Poland and USSR. Identified world resources total 5,000 million tonnes.

WORLD PRODUCTION IN ALL FORMS ('000 tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)

A significant percentage of output is a by-product of metallurgical operations or petroleum refining.

Developed

Canada Finland France W Germany Italy Japan S Africa Spain Sweden USA Yugoslavia Others Totals Grand Total

6593 (12.1) 508 (0.9)

1515 (2.8) 1572 (2.9) 488 (0.9)

2430 (4.5) 775 (1.4)

1333 (2.5) 397 (0.7)

11348 (20.9) 500 (0.9)

1724 __{_g)

29183 (53.7)

Developing

Iraq 620 (1.1) Mexico 2173 (4.0) Saudi Arabia 1200 (2.2) Others 2220 (4.1)

6213 (11.4) 54379

Centrally Planned

China N Korea Poland Romani a USSR Others

3000 (5. 5) 230 (0.4)

5108 (9.4) 320 (0.6)

9775 (18.0) 550 (1.0)

18983 (34.9)

Of the total output 22% was Frasch, 5% was native sulphur and 18% was from pyrites. The balance came from by-product sources.

257

Sulphur

PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (•ooo tonnes)

Developed

Canada 8300 France 2500 W Germany 2000 Italy 1100 Japan 4000 Spain 1400 USA 15900 Others 4700 Totals 39900


Developing

Iraq Mexico Others

Static reserve life (years): 24

1000 2200 4250

7450

Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: 1.2 1

CONSUMPTION


Sulphur in all forms

1985/86 Averages •ooo tonnes

6900 2485

12378 16714 38477

Centrally Planned Economies 18959

Total world 57436

Centrally Planned

China Poland USSR Others

2900 5200

11200 1250

Total

20550 67900


0.7 -2.0 -1.4 -0.9 3.4 -1.4 5.5 4.1 3.0 0.7

n/a 0.5

n/a 0.6

Source: British Sulphur Corporation statistics and trade accounts.

258

Sulphur


Fertilisers Other chemical products Metal mining Petroleum refining Other uses



SUBSTITUTES

66 10 2 8

14

Most sulphur is used in the form of sulphuric acid. Depending on relative prices, this can sometimes be replaced by hydrochloric acid, nitric acid or hydrofluoric acid.


Sulphur-asphalt paving and a non-asphalt paving with a sulphur binding are nearing commercial use.

Development of specialised sulphur concrete materials.

Extended use of sulphuric acid in the chemical industry.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985

US Frasch, export bright, ex-terminal Holland (lon~ term contracts) /lt 149 136.5 138 155 US Frasch Real 1987 price 152.9 138.6 137.1 153.4 Liquid sulphur contracts North West Europe delivered, ex-terminal range $/tonne 146-150 122-138 123-135 149.5-164.5

1986

164.2

168.6

165.5-156

Producer pricing for long term contracts although spot market has been important during the recent recession. Transport costs very important.

259

1987

166

166

120-140

Sulphur


Approximately 50% of world production is from countries in which the industry is nationalised (eg: USSR, Mexico) or in which the governments have partial ownership (eg France, Spain) or exercise some measure of control (eg: Japan). Production is worldwide with elemental sulphur (frasch and brimstone) accounting for about 72% of Western world primary production, pyrites 11% and smelter gases 16%. Supply pattern likely to be restructured by 2000, as production from primary sources is phased out in favour of coproduct sources (coal, petroleum, natural gas, metal smelting) which serve to control environmental problems but at increased capital and operating costs.

260

105

100

95

90

85

SULPHUR US frasch, export bright, ex terminal Holland (long term contracts)


Sulphur

80~--------~------~--------~------~--------~

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

261

Sulphur



Production (1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes) Sulphur in all forms 162 4813 2606 12282

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 761.2 1538 1 1726

Source of Net Imports (%) Canada 35 57 European Community United States 22 China 96 Poland 36 Iraq 1 4 Mexico 42 Saudi Arabia 4 Others 2 1

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 1.9 495 122 1630

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) Sulphur in all forms c. 890 c. 6900 2485 12378

Import Dependence Imports as % of consumption 86 22 17 Imports as % of consumption


Share of World Consumption (%) Western world 2 18 6 32 Total world 2 12 4 22

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) All forms 1970s -0.7 0.7 -1.4 3.4

262

TANTALUM

WORLD RESERVES (tonnes of metal and %of total)

Developed

Australia Canada Others

Totals Grand Total

4535 (17.3) 1815 (6.9) 450 (1. 7)

6800 (25.9)

Developing

Brazil Malaysia Nigeria Thailand Zaire Others

900 (3.4) 900 (3.4)

3175 (12.1) 7250 (27.6) 1815 (6.9)

2QQ _jhl_) 14940 (56.9)

26275

Centrally Planned

USSR 4535 (17.2)

4535 (17.2)

The world reserve base is estimated at 41,300 tonnes and the resource base at 270,000 tonnes, much of it in the USSR.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (tonnes of contained metal 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Australia Portugal Spain

Totals

43

4

47

Developing

Brazil Malaysia Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Thailand Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe

53 5 5 1 4 3

75 42

n/a 13

201

Centrally Planned Total

Total n/a

n/a 248 (Western

world only)

Production continued to be suspended at Tantalum Mining Corp's operations in Canada, one of the world's largest primary sources.

This table excludes production of tantalum from tin slags which is concentrated in in SE Asia, Africa and the USSR (greater than 100), with other countries producing small quantities. Excluding the USSR, world tantalum production from tin slags was about 415 tonnes in 1985/86. This means that total world production of tantalum from all sources averaged roughly 800 tonnes in 1985/86. Production from tin slags collapsed in 1986 with the fall in output of tin metal from SE Asia smelters following the demise of the International Tin Council.

263

Tantalum

Because tin slags are excluded, no percentage shares of world output are given in the table.

The production and shipments of the members of the Tantalum Producers International Study Centre (TIC) were as follows:

(tonnes contained Ta205)

Production Slags Concentrates Total

Shipments Slags Concentrates Total

Source: TIC Quarterly Bulletins.

1985

485.8 146.7 632.5

135.5 170.6 306.1

1986

345.0 61.4

406.4

181.0 133.4 314.4

Processors• shipments amounted to 958 tonnes of contained tantalum in 1985 and 944 tonnes in 1986.

PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 (tonnes of contained metal)


Australia 115 Brazil 90 USSR 160 Canada 135 Malaysia 90 Portugal 45 Nigeria 70 Spain Thailand 360

Zaire 70 Other Africa 90

Totals 295 770 160 1225

This table includes estimates of capacities of by-product recovery from tin slags.

264



CONSUMPTION

Tantalum

over 100

1.4 : 1


% p.a. growth rates


United States


USA

Electronic components Machinery Transport Others

c. 200-250 216

56 19 16 9

360

1970s 1980-86

n/a 13.6

(powder only) 1.8

Japan

Electronics Industrial Cutting tools Others

n/a 6.9

-6.6

60 10 20 10


$40 million (at average 1987 prices)(including tantalum content of tin slags).

SUBSTITUTES

Substitution for tantalum is normally at the expense of performance or cost.

Aluminium and ceramics compete in capacitors; silicon, germanium and selenium are alternatives in rectifiers; zirconium, titanium can substitute as getters in electronic tubes and in corrosion-resistant equipment.

Niobium can replace tantalum in some carbides, and, along with platinum, in corrosion-resistant equipment and high temperature uses.

Hafnium, molybdenum and tungsten compete in high temperature applications.

265

Tantalum


Reduction in quantity of tantalum required per capacitor through higher capacitance ratings.

Increased use in superalloys and development of new alloys.

PRICES

1982

Tanco Tantal ite 50% Ta205

$/lb Ta2os 47.5

Range of prices $/lb Ta2os 20-40

Average $/lb Ta20s 34.2


* List price suspended

1983

45.0

20-31

25.1

25.5

1984

45.0

30-33

30.7

30.5

1985

*

21-33

27.6

27.3

1986

*

15-23

17.6

18.1

Large producers have list prices, but dealer market important.


Most tantalum is produced in association with tin and developments in

1987

*

18.5-28

22.7

22.7

the latter industry have had a depressing effect on tantalum production over the last two years. Production divided between mining of ores, eg: Australia and processing of tin slags, eg Thailand. Some countries combine both methods, eg: Brazil. Substantial by-product production, usually with niobium. The Tantalum Producers, International Study Centre (TIC) based in Brussels, carries out cooperative statistical, promotional and research activities. Most primary producers and processors are members.

266

Tantalum

TANTAWM Spot Tantalite Ore cif US ports 60% combined Cb2 0 5


160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70~------~~-------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

267

Tantalum


UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes Ta content) Ores and concentrates

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mineral concentrates inc. with inc. with 144 116

niobium niobium (Ta content) Unwrought metal and alloys

inc. powder 21.5 57 30 73 Wrought metal 18.0 31 14 2 Tin slags n/a n/a n/a n/a


Ores and concentrates Australia 9 Canada 26 European Community 28 Braz i 1 16 23 Malaysia 49 Rwanda 18 Thailand 4 Zaire 17 10

Meta 1 etc European Community 49 55 70 United States 23 98 46 Mexico 4 Venezuela 7 Others 28 2 19

268

Tantalum

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Concentrate, metal, alloys,

waste and scrap 16.0 16.5(a) 11.2 141 (metal only) (Ta content)

(a) Including gross German exports

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes Ta content) c. 15 c. 200-250 216 360




Western world c. 2 c. 22 c. 21 c. 35

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a 13.6 1.8

(powder only)

269

TELLURIUM

WORLD RESERVES (tonnes of contained tellurium and %of total)


Australia 520 (2.4) Chile 5100 (23.3) Total 2300 (10.5) Canada 980 (4.5) Peru 780 (3.6) USA 3700 (16.9) Papua N. Guinea 390 (1.8) Others 1000 (4.6) Philippines 780 (3.6)

Zaire 1700 (7.8) Zambia 2000 (9.1) Others 2630 (12.0) ----------

Totals 6200 (28.3) 13380 ( 61.2) 2300 (10.5) Grand Total 21880

The above data refer to reserves of byproduct tellurium contained in copper deposits of economic grade. Concentrations of tellurium can also be found in lead and gold ores and in coal deposits.

WORLD REFINERY PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY METAL (tonnes of metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages)


Belgium 70 (31) Peru 12.4 Canada 17.5 (8) Japan 55.6 (24) USA 60 (26) Others (a) 13 (6) Totals 216.1 (95) 12.4

(a) Australia and W Germany

Totals and shares are for the Western world only.

Centrally Planned Total

(5) n/a

(5) n/a 228.5 (W world only

Chile, Philippines, Zambia and Zaire and the USSR may also refine tellurium but details of production are not available.


World refinery capacity is approximately 520 tonnes concentrated in the USA (110 tonnes), Japan (100 tonnes), Canada (70 tonnes) and USSR (70 tonnes).

270


Static reserve life (years): Ratio of reserves to cumulated demand 1987-2000:

CONSUMPTION

96

5 : 1



n/a 51

c. 100


Iron and steel products Non-ferrous metals Chemicals, including rubber

manufacture Xerography and others


60 25

10 5

Tellurium


n/a n/a 1.2

n/a n/a ~a

$7 million (identified production at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Bismuth is being increasingly substituted for tellurium in free machining steels, with selenium and lead as other alternatives in metallurgical applications. Selenium and sulphur can be used in rubber compounding applications and selenium and germanium in electronics.


Development of photoelectrochemical solar cells and screen-printed thin film cadmium sulphide/cadmium telluride solar cells. Potential for other photoactive devices.

New tellurium-containing catalysts.

Recovery from coal deposits.

271

Tellurium

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Metal - Major producer USA $/lb 10 9 11-11.5 11-11.5 10 14

Real 1987 price 10.3 9.13 11.15 11.21 10.26 14


As tellurium is recovered as a by-product, supply may move independently of demand.

The Selenium and Tellurium Development Association, supported by primary producers in Canada, Japan, Peru and the USA, underpins research aimed at encouraging new applications.

272

Tellurium

TELLURIUM Metal major producer slab. $/lb.


100

90

80

70

60~--------~------~--------~--------~------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

273

Tellurium


UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Refinery 55.6 c. 60

Net Im~orts (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) (a) (a) 2.6 22

(a) Included with arsenic (Te content)

Source of Net Im~orts (%) Canada 38 European Community 92 36 Japan 2 USA 8 Peru 7 Philippines 17

Net Ex~orts (1985/86 Averages) (a) (a) n/a (tonnes) (a) Included with arsenic

Consum~tion (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) n/a n/a 51 c. 100

Im~ort De~endence (%) Imports as % of consumption n/a n/a 5 c. 22 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports n/a n/a 5 n/a

Share of World Consum~tion (%) Western world n/a n/a c. 20 c. 40

Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1970s n/a n/a n/a 1.2

274

TIN

WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of metal and % of total)


Australia 180 (5. 7) Bolivia 140 (4.4) China 80 (2.5) Canada 60 (1.9) Brazi 1 70 (2.2) USSR 80 (2.5) Portugal & Burma 10 (0.6) Others 20 (0.6)

Spain 30 (1.0) Indonesia 680 (21.6) S Africa 30 (1.0) Malaysia 1100 (34.9) UK 90 (2.9) Namibia 60 (1.9) USA 20 (1.0) Nigeria 20 (0.6)

Thailand 270 (8.6) Zaire 20 (0.6) Zimbabwe 20 (0.6) Others 160 __li:l) ------


The world's reserve base is 4,280,000 tonnes.

Total identified world resources are estimated at 37 million tonnes.

275

Tin

WORLD MINE AND METAL PRODUCTION 1 1985/86 1 AND PRODUCTIVE CAPACITIES 1 1985 (tonnes of metal and% of total)

Mine Metal Production % of Capacity Production % of Capacity

Production Production

DeveloQed Australia 7802 (4.1) 12000 2041 (1.0) 7200 Canada 1110 (0.6) 1000 Japan 505 (0.3) 900 1336 (0.7) 1800 Netherlands - 5211 (2.7) 7000 Portugal 221 (0.1) 600 334 (0.2) 800 S Africa 2104 (1.1) 3000 1936 (1.0) 2000 Spain 400 (0.2) 800 2508 (1.3) 15800 UK 4775 (2.5) 6000 8388 (4.3) 14000 USA 100 (0.1) 300 3107 (1.6) 7300

Total 17017 (9.0) 24600 24861 (12.7) 55900

DeveloQing Argentina 357 (0.2) (a) 234 (0.1) 500 Bo 1 ivi a 13308 (7.0) 33000 10266 (5.3) 17000 Brazil 25982 (13.7) 28000 24904 (12.7) 25000 Burma 1554 (0.8) 3000 755 (0.4) 1000 Indonesia 23196 (12.3) 30000 21249 (10.9) 33000 Laos 500 (0.3) 600 Malaysia 33009 (17.5) 50000 44644 (22.9) 80000 Mexico 483 (0.3) 600 1846 (0.9) 2200 Namibia 805 (0.4) 1700 Nigeria 435 (0.2) 5000 588 (0.3) 13000 Peru 4312 (2.3) 5000 Rwanda 426 (0.2) 2000 474 (0.2) 1300 Singapore 2250 (1.2) 4000 S Korea 10 ( .. ) n/a 1433 (0.7) 4000 Thailand 16693 (8.8) 33000 18834 (9.6) 31000 Zaire 2495 (1.3) 5000 43 ( .. ) 4000 Zimbabwe 1133 (0.6) 2000 1113 (0.6) 2000 Others:

Known Origin 135 (0.1) 600 Unspecified 6750 (3.6) Total 131583 (69.6) 199500 128633 (65.8) 218000

Centralll Planned China 20000 (10.6) 20000 19500 (10.0) 20000 Czechoslovakia 200 (0.1) 500 450 (0.2) 500 E Germany 2800 (1.5) 2000 3300 (1. 7) 3000 Mongolia 1000 (0.5) 500 USSR 16000 (8.5) 28000 18100 (9.3) 29000 Vietnam 500 (0.3) 500 500 (0.3) 1200

Total 40500 (21.4) 51500 41850 (21.4) 53700

TOTAL 189100 275600 195344 327600

(a) Included with Peru 276

Metal capacity figures refer to primary metal only. The capacities for producing metal are imprecise as smelters can use differing grades of concentrate. Much of the mine and metal capacity closed down in 1985-86.

WORLD PRODUCTION OF SECONDARY METAL {'000 tonnes of metal and% of total 1985/86 Averages)

Tin


Australia 0.4 Argentina 0.1 Czechoslovakia 0.4 Canada 0.2 Brazil 0.2 Others n/a W Germany 0.7 India 0.1 S Africa 0.1 Thailand 0.1 Spain 0.2 UK (a) 6.5 USA 1.2 Other Europe 0.8 Totals 10.1 0.4 0.4 10.9

(a) Includes production from smelter residues.

This table is incomplete, as full data are not available.


Static reserve life (years): 17 Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative consumption 1987-2000: 1 : 1

277

CONSUMPTION

European Comm~nity Japan United States Others Total Western world

Total world

1985/86 Averages •ooo tonnes

45.7 31.6 46.6 46.8

170.7

225.9

% p.a. growth rates 1960-70 1970-80 1980-86

-0.1 6.9 1.3 1.4 1.4

2.1

-1.7 1.9

-1.6 2.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.7 0.3

-4.2 2.3

-0.8

-0.6

Includes tin refined from secondary materials, but not use of scrap tin.


USA Japan UK W Germany

Tinplate 20 29 34 14 Tinning 3 7 2 Solder 36 44 9 18 Alloys 14 2 31 11 Wrought Tin 27 2 2 Chemicals & others 26 17 54

US and UK - primary and secondary metal; W Germany and Japan - primary only.

Canning•s share is more than 50% in the world as a whole.


$1.35 billion {primary refined metal at average 1987 prices).

278

coins)

Tin

SUBSTITUTES

Aluminium, tin-free steel, glass, paper, plastics all compete with tin in cans.

Non-metallic materials, copper, aluminium and zinc-coated products are alternatives in roofing and construction applications.

Aluminium alloys, copper-base alloys and plastics can substitute in bronze.

Other chemicals can replace tin compounds for use as fungicides and biocides or polyvinyl chloride stabilisers. In some user (eg: marine pleasure craft) the use of tin biocides is banned on environmental grounds.

Epoxy resins can be used for solder though not as effectively.

Babbit metal can be replaced by low tin aluminium, copper, or lead bearing alloys and roller or ball bearings.


Increasing recovery from slimes in beneficiation stage.

Replacement of tinplate food and drink container by aluminium can and PET containers.

Increased use of tin oxide coatings.

279

Tin

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

LME Standard Grade Cash (a) $/lb 5.82 5.90 5.57 5.56

Metal Bulletin free Market Spot $/lb (a) 2.85 3.14

Real 1987 price (a) 5.97 5.99 5.53 5.50 2.93 3.14

Kuala Lumpur/ Penang $/lb 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.4 2.79 3.0

Kuala Lumpur/ Penang $M/kg 29.84 30.20 29.16 29.67 15.5 16.84

LME Monthly Average Range i/tonne 6308- 7666- 8520- 8715-

8651 9014 9881 10011

(a) LME price suspended October 24th 1985. For 1986-87 the Metal Bulletin Free Market Price is used.

280

Until the collapse of the International Tin Agreement in October 1985 most tin trade was related to LME or Kuala Lumpur market determined prices, as modified by ITC intervention. Subsequently LME dealings have ceased, and prices are fixed by reference to the Kuala Lumpur Exchange or a variety of dealer prices.

Tin

Up to October 1985 prices were theoretically subject to ITC intervention levels through a system of floor and ceiling prices. The ranges were altered periodically to keep them roughly in line with costs, but the ceiling was often breached. The floor price in the Sixth Agreement was Malaysian $29.16/kg. Prices were supported by export controls and buffer stock purchases. The ITC's prices were set too high in an oversupplied market, in which a substantial and growing percentage of output came from non members. The ITC's buffer stock manager eventually ran out of funds and the Agreement collapsed.


Production is mainly concentrated in developing countries. Output is largely state controlled in Indonesia, and Nigeria (now a small scale producer), and to a lesser extent in Malaysia and Zaire. The International Tin Council consists of producers and consumers. The Sixth Agreement went into provisional operation on 1st July 1982 but was dogged by political differences over the size of the buffer stock, and export controls. Bolivia, USA and USSR who were members of the Fifth Agreement did not join, and nor did Brazil whose low cost output expanded rapidly.

August 1983 saw the formation of the Association of Tin Producing Countries (ATPC). Initial aims were the promotion of producer and consumer interests, including research in marketing and the development of new uses for tin. Founder members of Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Bolivia were joined by Nigeria, Zaire and Australia.

The tin market is influenced by sales from the US stockpile (1986 - 5,490 t), by Chinese exports, and since October 1985 by the unloading of excess stocks built up by the ITC's buffer stock and held by the banks as collateral. These stocks are expected to run out in late 1988/1989.

281

Tin

TIN LME standard cash


90~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

282

Tin


UK EC{10) Japan USA

Production {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Tin in concentrates 4775 4775 505 100 Primary metal 8388 13599 1336 3107 Recycled tin metal 6475{a) c. 7920 1218 (a) Includes smelter residues

Net Imports {1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Tin in concentrates

(Sn content) 6966 c. 13815 2776 Tin metal 4086 31612 30033 34799


Tin in concentrates Australia 3 3 Canada 8 6 S Africa 8 7 Argentina 1 Bolivia 76 61 5 Burma 5 Chile 1 1 China 1 3 Peru 93 Zaire 8 Others 3 5 2

Tin metal European Community 5 2 S Africa 12 2 Bolivia 4 6 10 Brazil 13 2 29 Chile 1 3 Indonesia 17 23 16 13 Malaysia 41 32 45 9 Nigeria 7 2 Singapore 4 3 4 Thai land 4 13 23 12 Zimbabwe 2 China 2 2 10 11 Others 3 2 4 7

283

Tin

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Tin in concentrates

(Sn content) 2278 c. 30 Tin metal 10465 7264 76 1513

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Primary metal 6000 40516 31560 34868 Recycled metal 3574 5174 11778 Total metal 9574 45690 31560 46646





Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1960s -1.6 -0.1 6.9 1.3 1970s -4.9 -1.7 1.9 -1.6

284

TITANIUM

WORLD RESERVES OF ILMENITE (million tonnes of contained titanium and % of total)

Developed

Australia Canada Finland Norway S Africa USA Totals Grand Total

14 (11.4) 16 (13.0) 1 (0.8)

19 (15.5) 23 (18.7)

_7 _li:I) 80 (65.0)

Developing

Brazil India Sri Lanka

123

Centrally Planned

1 (0.8) China 18 (14.6) USSR 2 (1.6)

21 (17 .1)

18 (14.6) 4 (3.3)

22 (17.9)

The world reserve base is estimated at 240 million tonnes and includes deposits in Egypt and Malaysia in addition to the above countries. Identified resources total about 540 million tonnes of contained titanium.

WORLD RESERVES OF RUTILE (million tonnes of contained titanium and% of total)

Developed

Australia S Africa USA

Totals Grand Total

5.2 (11.0) 2.2 (4.7) 0.2 (0.4)

7.6 (16.1)

Developing

Brazil 33.6 (71.3) India 2.6 (5.5) Sierra Leone 1.3 (2.8) Sri Lanka __9_2 ___1!4)

38.0 (80. 7) 47.1

Centrally Planned

USSR 1.5 (3.2)

1.5 (3.2)

The reserve base totals 70 million tonnes, 65% of which is in Brazil, and also includes deposits in Italy. Identified world resources total 108 million tonnes of contained titanium.

285

Titanium

WORLD PRODUCTION OF TITANIUM MINERALS ('000 tonnes of concentrates 1985/86 Averages)


Ilmenite Australia (a) 1342 Brazil 76 Finland 27 India 141 Norway 768 Malaysia 365 Portugal Sri Lanka 107 USA 290 Thai land 8

Rutile Australia 214 Brazi 1 1 S Africa 55 India 7 USA n/a Sierra Leone 89

Sri Lanka 8

Slags Canada 847 S Africa 435

(a) Includes leucoxene

286

Centrally Planned

China USSR

USSR

142 447

10

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 {'000 tonnes of contained titanium dioxide and% of total)


Developed Australia 976 {29.6} Canada 678 (20.6} Finland 12 {0.4} Norway 340 (10.3) S Africa 370 (11.2) USA 165 (a) (5.0)

Total 2541 (77 .2)

Developing

Brazil 43 ( 1. 3) India 87 (2.6} Malaysia 168 (5.1) Sierra Leone 85 (2.6} Sri Lanka 65 (2.0} Thailand 4 (0.1)

Total 452 (13.7}

Centrall~ Planned China 70 (2.1) USSR 230 (7 .0}

Total 300 (9.1)

TOTAL 3293

(a) excludes US production of rutile.

Titanium

Productive Capacity

1150 680

65 335 405 205

2840

40 110 115

95 75

n/a 435

90 235 325

3600

87% of the total capacity is for ilmenite. Rutile capacity is concentrated in the USA {25 tonnes), USSR {9 tonnes), Sierra Leone {95 tonnes), S Africa {55 tonnes), India {9 tonnes), Sri Lanka (15 tonnes) and Australia {240 tonnes). All figures refer to contained titanium dioxide.

Titanium dioxide contains 60% titanium.

287

Titanium

WORLD PRODUCTION OF TITANIUM METAL (tonnes of sponge and % of total 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Japan 18.5 (22.3) UK 1.4 ( 1. 7) USA 18.4 (22.1)

Totals 38.3 (46.1)


Static reserve life (years): Ratio of identified reserves to cumulative demand 1987-2000: (ilmenite and rutile combined)

CONSUMPTION

Centrally Planned

China 1.8 (2.2) USSR 43.0 (51.7)

44.8 (53.9)

87 (ilmenite and rutile combined)

5.9 : 1

% p.a. growth rates

Total

83.1

1985/86 Averages '000 tonnes 1970s 1980-86

Titanium pigments European Community Japan United States

Titanium sponge European Community Japan United States

(a) apparent

650 - 700 c. 230 893(a)

10 - 15 11 19

288

stagnating n/a 4.0 n/a 1.3 4.6

n/a n/a 12.9 1.4 6.2 -5.3


Ore (Ilmenite and Rutile) Pigment manufacture (titanium

dioxide) 94 Sponge production, welding rod

coats and carbides, ceramic and glass formulations 6

Metal Aircraft and aerospace 78 Chemical processing, power

generation, marine and ordnance 22


$330 million (Ti02 content at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Titanium

Nickel steels, stainless steels, HSLA steels and some non-ferrous metal alloys can sometimes replace titanium alloys in industrial uses although at the expense of performance or economics.

Tungsten carbide competes with titanium carbide as a cutting surface in machine tools.

Synthetic rutile made from ilmenite can be substituted for natural rutile.


Environmental problems mean that plants are likely to use chloride technology in the future. Increasing amounts of synthetic rutile (made from ilmenite) are likely to be used as feed.

Possibility of using ilmenite in drilling mud applications.

Improvement in titanium forming processing to cut costs.

Replacement of titanium alloys in aerospace applications by lithiumaluminium alloys or carbon-epoxy composites.

Further research in medicare - pacemakers, artificial hips etc.

289

Titanium

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Ore Rutile cone 96% Ti02 fob cars Atlantic and Great Lakes $0 short ton 462.5 433.0 453.0 475 496.1 515

Real 1987 price 475.4 439.4 449.0 473.0 509.0 515

Ore Ilmenite bulk cone min 54% Ti02 A$/ tonne 28.04 32.5 37.0 42.3 58.1 75.0

S~onge US (a) $/lb 6.18 3.6 4 3.75 4 4.2

(a) List price suspended 1984 at $5.55. Reported end year sales prices for 1983-87.

Source: Metal Bulletin for ore prices.

Ore prices mainly fixed on contract. Metal prices are usually quoted by mills. Discounting common.


Moderately integrated industry with limited number of countries producing ore. Large chemical and industrial companies, eg, Du Pont, dominate pigment production, and often have captive ore supplies.

290

160

140

120

100

TITANIUM US, Sponge


Titanium

80~--------~------~--------~--------~------~

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

291

Titanium

100

95

90

85

TITANIUM Rutile Ore


I I

I I

I I

I I

I I

I l

_,-' _,-'

80·~--------~------~--------~--------~------~

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

292

Titanium


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)

Raw materia 1 s Ilmenite concentrate 290 Rutile concentrate n/a Titanium slags Titanium dioxide pigments 225 n/a c 225 806

Sponge metal 1.4 1.4 18.5 (Ti02 745}

c. 18.4 Ingots (inc. scrap and imported

sponge) n/a n/a n/a 32


Raw materials Ilmenite concentrate 280.7 1052.8 637.2 441.1 Rutile concentrate 89.7 306.7 131.2 Titanium slag and residues 37.4 351.4 92.7 296.5 Titanium oxides (inc. pigments) 20.6 46.5 41.1 180.9 Sponge and metal (inc. wrought) 8.3 15.6 4.9

(wrought only)


Ilmenite 2 rutile and slag (exc. slag) ( exc. s 1 ag) Australia 39 24 34 56 Canada 4 24 11 20 European Community 19 Norway 25 31 S Africa 4 4 12 18 India 6 7 6 Malaysia 29 Sierra Leone 6 3 Sri Lanka 1 2 8 1 Others 3 1 1

293

Titanium

UK EC(lO) Japan USA

Titanium Oxides Australia 5 3 Canada 13 European Community 62 55 63 Finland 45 4 3 Japan 1 3 Norway 6 14 1 4 Spain 2 6 1 10 United States 22 19 28 China 1 2 2 Czechoslovakia 2 5 South Korea 4 Others 5 8 1 1

Metal (inc. scrap) Austria 11 Sweden 1 1 Canada 11 European Community 16 19 Japan 3 19 54 Switzerland 4 USA 47 50 China 4 USSR 12 2 Others 34 7 5

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( '000 tonnes)

Raw materials Ilmenite concentrate 0.55 1.9 0.9 Rutile concentrate 29.8 1.4 Titanium slag 0.5 Oxides & titanium dioxide

pigments etc. 128.4 363.1 65.5 99.2 Sponge and meta 1 2.3 2.2 6.6 9.2

294

Titanium

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes)

Raw materia 1 s Ilmenite n/a n/a n/a 708.7

Rutile (natural & synthetic) n/a (Ti02 450.7)

n/a n/a 287.7

Slag n/a n/a n/a (Ti02 270.3)

239.6 (Ti02 191.2)

Titanium dioxide pigments c. 150 650-700 200-250 893.2 (Ti02 826.1)

Sponge metal 3-4 10-15 10.9 18.6

Import Dependence (all forms) Imports as % of consumption 100 100 100 96 Imports as % of consumption



Total world: Sponge and meta 1 4 12-18 13 22 Pigments (approx.) 6 26 9 34


1970s Metal n/a n/a 12.9 6.2 Pigments etc. -1.5 n/a 4.0 1.3

(1974 to 1980) Total all forms -1.3 flat 4.3 1.5

295

TUNGSTEN



Australia 130 ( 4. 7) Bolivia 45 ( 1.6) China 1200 {42.9) Austria 15 (0.5) Brazi 1 20 {0.7) Czecho-Canada 480 (17.2) Burma 15 {0.5) slovakia 5 {0.2) France 20 {0. 7) S Korea 58 (2.1) N Korea 80 (2.9) Portugal 40 ( 1.4) Malaysia 17 {0.6) USSR 280 {10.0) Turkey 65 (2.3) Mexico 8 (0.3) UK 70 {2.5) Thailand 30 ( 1.1) USA 150 (5.4) Zimbabwe 5 (0.2) Others 20 __ {Q.=D Others __§~) -----Totals 990 {35.4) 243 {8. 7) 1565 {55.9) Grand Total 2798

The reserve base is 3.5 million tonnes, distributed broadly as above.

296

Tungsten

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION 1 1985/86 2 and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY 2 1985 ('000 tonnes of contained tungsten and% of total)


Developed Australia 1.64 (3.7) 3.60 Austria 1.49 {3.3) 2.00 Canada 2.31 {5.2) 4.50 France 0.86 (1. 9) 1.00 Japan 0.54 (1. 2) 0.60 New Zealand ( .. ) 0.01 Portugal 1. 70 {3.8) 1. 70 Spain 0.45 {1. 0) 0.60 Sweden 0.40 {0.9) 0.40 Turkey 0.08 (0.2) 0.50 USA 0.89 (2.0) 4.00

Total 10.36 (23.3) 18.91

Developing Argentina 0.02 ( .. ) 0.12 Bolivia 1.40 {3.1) 2.60 Braz i 1 0.95 (2.1) 1.50 Burma 0.83 ( 1. 9) 1.10 Guatemala 0.01 ( .. ) n/a India 0.03 {0.1) 0.03 S Korea 2.54 (5. 7) 2.80 Malaysia 0.02 ( .. ) 0.01 Mexico 0.29 (0.7) 0.30 Peru 0.73 ( 1. 6) 1.20 Rwanda 0.09 (0.2) 0.33 Thailand 0.47 ( 1.1) 0.90 Uganda ( .. ) 0.01 Zaire 0.02 ( .. ) 0.07 Zimbabwe 0.01 ( .. ) 0.07

Total 7.41 (16.6) 11.04

Centrall~ Planned China 15.00 ( 33. 7) 17.00 Czechoslovakia 0.05 (0.1) 0.05 Mongolia 1.50 (3.4) n/a N Korea 1.00 (2.2) 1.00 USSR 9.20 (20. 7) 9.20

Total 26.75 (60.1) 27.25

TOTAL 44.52 57.20

297

Tungsten



CONSUMPTION OF TUNGSTEN CONCENTRATES

63

3.5 1




Total world

3961 2408 5821 (a) 6780

18970

44974

-6 -4.9 1.6 4.1 1.1

0.6

(a) Some 500 to 2,000 tonnes of scrap are also used.

Source: UNCTAD Committee on Tungsten.

-2.6 -4.7

-10.4 -1.0

-4.9

0.7

These statistics show the immediate consumption of tungsten concentrates, but not necessarily the final destination of the subsequent products.


United States

Metal working and construction machinery 70 Transport 8 Lamps and lighting 10 Electrical 8 Other 4

Cemented carbides Tool steels Tungsten meta 1 Superalloys and miscellaneous


61 4

23 11

$207 million (contained wca at average 1987 prices).

298

Japan

58 23 19

Tungsten

SUBSTITUTES

Titanium, tantalum and niobium carbides can be used in some wear-resisting applications.

Molybdenum tool steels and tungsten tool steels are interchangeable.

In some cutting tool applications, bulk ceramics are alternatives.


Further development of new metal-shaping methods, eg: laser. Development of new cutting tool materials.

Increased use in ceramics and in catalysts.

Increased use of tungsten scrap.

Increased use of coatings on cemented carbide cutting tools.

Use of tungsten compounds in light-sensitive applications.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985

Ore min 65% W03 cif Europe

$/mtu W03 78-113 67-91 68-69 54-76

Real 1987 price 80-116 68-92 68-69 53-75 (range)


1986 1987

30-63 35-58

31-65 35-58

Prices are traditionally highly volatile. Consumers buy direct from producers or through traders, often by reference to Metal Bulletin price quotes which usually represent small spot lots or samples of purchases. An alternative pricing basis is the International Tungsten Indicator which moves in a very similar fashion. Long term contractual prices are usually lower.

299

Tungsten


The market is influenced by two extraneous factors - exports from China which have increased considerably in recent years, and sales from the US stockpile. The latter were suspended between October 1985 and May 1986 and then resumed on only a moderate basis. Chinese exports were subject to antidumping action in Europe and in 1987 to an Orderly Marketing Agreement in the USA. Major producers, meet under the auspices of the Primary Tungsten Association which has been re-launched to include major customers. The UNCTAD Tungsten Committee collects data and attempts, unsuccessfully so far, to reach agreement on market stabilisation measures. There has been increasing interest, especially in USA, in integrated production through construction of tungsten conversion plants.

300

Tungsten

TUNGSTEN Ore min 65% WO, cit Europe


210

200

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100~------~------~~------~------~----.. ~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

301

Tungsten


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Mine production (W content) 859 540 (a) 888 Ammonium paratungstate

(W content) n/a n/a n/a 6065

(a) Japanese sources give this figure as 619

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Concentrates (gross wt) 5120 2319

Concentrates (W content) 371 c. 2800 c. 1300 3634 Ferro tungsten (gross wt) 85 1196 130 139

(W content) Ammonium paratungstate

(W content) n/a n/a n/a 1254 Tungsten metal 344 1894 44 122 Tungsten carbide (gross wt) 500 1471 n/a 399

(W content)


Ores and concentrates Australia 5 7 8 Canada 20 6 20 European Community 36 6 Portugal 36 12 33 10 Spain 3 1 Sweden 4 China 25 5 12 Brazil 1 1 Bolivia 18 1 11 17 Burma 2 1 2 Mexico 5 Peru 6 6 10 Rwanda 5 2 S Korea 1 19 Thailand 7 2 10 Others 9 8 1 4

302

Tungsten

UK EC(10) Japan USA

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Concentrates (gross wt) 997 Concentrate (W content) 127 c. 550 79 Metal and powder (W content) 665 955 248 c. 1050 Tungsten carbide (gross wt) 912 695 (a) 505

(W content) Ferrotungsten (gross wt) 150 74 n/a

(a) Excluding W Germany

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Concentrates (W content) 600 3961 2408 5821 Apparent Total (W content) c. 750-1000c. 5500-6000 c. 3500 7121 (a)

(a) Concentrates, scrap and metal

Import Dependence (all forms) Imports as % of consumption 100 100 57 95 Imports as % of consumption

and net exports 100 89 (b) 53 63 (b) Based on mine production

Share of World Consumption of Concentrates (%)


Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -8.3 -6 -4.9 1.6

303

URANIUM

WESTERN WORLD REASONABLY ASSURED RESOURCES {'000 tonnes Uranium and% of total)

Developed Developing Total

Australia 526 (22.7) Algeria 26 ( 1.1) Canada 214 {9.2) Argentina 18.9 {0.8) Denmark 27 {1.2) Brazil 163.3 (7.0) Finland 1.5 {0.1) Centra 1 African France 67.1 (2.9) Republic 16 {0. 7) W Germany 4.7 {0.2) Chile 2.3 {0.1) Greece 0.4 ( .. ) Gabon 21.3 {0.9) Italy 4.8 {0.2) India 46.1 (2.0) Japan 7.7 {0.3) S Korea 10 {0.4) Portugal 8.2 (0.3) Mexico 7.7 {0.3) S Africa 358.7 (15.5) Namibia 120 {5.2) Spain 32.9 {1.4) Niger 182.2 (7.9) Sweden 39 (1. 7) Peru 0.5 ( .. ) Turkey 3.9 (0.2) Somalia 6.6 (0.3) USA 398.1 (17.2) Zaire 1.8 (0.1) Totals 1694 {73.1) 622.7 {26.9) 2316.7

Source: OECD/IAEA Uranium Resources, Production & Demand.

After allowing for processing losses not incorporated in these estimates, the source rounds the total to 2250.

The table includes estimates of reasonably assured resources available at 1st January 1985. Some 72% of the total is available at an estimated forward cost (not price) of $80/Kg U or less, and the balance at a forward cost of $80 to 130 kg/U. Estimated additional resources in the Western world available at a forward cost under $130/Kg of U, amount to some 1.2 million tonnes of U.

304

WESTERN WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (tonnes U and % of total 1985/86 Averages)

Developed

Australia Canada France W Germany Japan Portugal S Africa Spain USA Yugoslavia Totals

3702 11309 3227

40 6

114 4743

208 4785

48 28182

(10.3) ( 31.3) (8.9) {0 .1) ( .. )

{0.3) {13.1) {0.6)

{13.3) (0.1)

{78.1)

Developing

Argentina Brazil Gabon India Namibia Niger

144 {0.4) 108 {0.3) 917 (2.5) 167 (0.5)

3427 (9.5) 3155 {8.7)

7918 {21.9)

Uranium

Total

36100

Note: There is presently a limited amount of reprocessing of spent reactor fuel which supplements mine production. In addition Belgium produced 40 tonnes U in 1985/86 from imported phosphates.


Static reserve life -Western world (years):

Ratio of resources to cumulative demand 1987-2000 (includes reasonably assured and estimated additional resources):

64

3.2 1

305

Uranium

CONSUMPTION

The table shows average Western world reactor requirements in 1986, based on estimated reactor usage. Stockpiling is ignored.

Western Europe Asia United States Others Total Western world

Source: Uranium Institute

'000 tonnes (U)

18.0 6.1

14.7 2.5

41.3

% p.a. growth rates 1970s (a)

14.3 25.3 10.6 20.5 14.5

(a) For the European Community, Japan, USA, and other countries respectively.

Total reactor requirements were just over 40,000 tonnes in 1985, and about 42,000 tonnes in 1987.

The future growth in demand depends on the continuation of programmes for building nuclear reactors. Because of delays to reactor construction and stockpiling, purchases of uranium substantially exceeded reactor usage up to 1983. Public acceptability of nuclear power and of nuclear waste disposal is vital for future growth of demand for uranium.

END USE PATTERNS

The only uses for natural uranium are for military purposes and for civil nuclear power. There is no published breakdown of demand between the two, although nearly all recent output goes into the latter.


$2.3 billion at an average value of $25/lb.

SUBSTITUTES

Nuclear power directly competes with other forms of electricity generation. Once a nuclear station is built, however, there is no substitute for uranium based fuel beyond various fuel management schemes that raise the productivity of the installed fuel. Reprocessing of spent fuel allows some limited substitution for mined output in the longer term, but is constrained in the short term by a lack of reprocessing facilities and waste storage.

306

Uranium


Improvements in the technology of existing reactor types will allow modest savings (10-15%) in uranium requirements. Longer term, the fast breeder reactor, now at the prototype stage, would allow a substantial (60 fold) reduction in uranium usage per unit of power. Its development has been delayed and it will probably not be a commercial proposition until well into the 21st century. Work on different types of reactor from the light water reactor has been inhibited by developments in the energy and uranium markets but several processes have been developed for processing and enrichment.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Nuexco exchange value $/lb U30s 19.9 23.0 17.3 15.6 17.0 16.7

Nuexco exchange value Real 1987 price 20.5 23.3 17.1 15.5 17.4 16.7

US DOE Average reported contract price $/lb U309 33.0 34.2 27.8 26.4 25.9 24.1


Uranium is a minor but very important element of the cost of nuclear power. Most sales (over 75%) are under long term contracts directly negotiated between mines and utilities. The intermediate processing from uranium concentrate to fuel rods is carried out under tolling arrangements. Because of their sensitive nature, uranium exports are heavily controlled by host governments in nearly all respects. There is a spot market organised mainly by uranium brokers, which has gradually increased in importance in which utilities can dispose of excess supplies. Spot prices are only one influence on prices fixed under long term contracts. Production costs are also important. There is a limited number of mines, which are controlled by a mixture of government agencies, utilities, oil companies and mining companies. Most producers have large interests outside uranium mining. US producers have unsuccessfully pressed in recent years for protection against imports on the grounds that the US industry is not viable.

307

Uranium

URANIUM Nuexco exchange value


140

130

120

110

100

90~--------r-------~--------~------~---------, 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

308

Uranium


Data on foreign trade compatible with production and consumption statistics are not published. On the basis of mine production and reactor usage Japan and the United Kingdom are completely reliant on imports or accumulated inventories. Production in the European Community equalled about 25% of its reactor usage, whilst in the United States average consumption greatly exceeded final consumption in nuclear reactors. The processing of natural uranium (conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication) is a constraint on commercial freedom. Supplying countries also impose various restrictions on trade in, and the uses of their exports.

309

VANADIUM

WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of contained vanadium and% of total)


Australia 32 (0.7) Chile 14 (0.3) China 600 (13.8) Finland 32 (0.7) India 9 (0.2) USSR 2630 (60.4) S Africa 860 (19.8) Venezuela 9 (0.2) USA 168 _{hl) --- -----Totals 1092 (25.1) 32 (0.7) 3230 (74.2) Grand Total 4354

The world's reserve base is some 16.6 million tonnes, over 70% in S Africa and USSR. Norway, Cahada, New Zealand, Burundi, Namibia, Mozambique, Zambia, Mexico and South Korea make up 460,000 tonnes of the reserve base.

The world's identified resources amount to 63 million tonnes. Most of the resources are in titaniferous-magnetites from which vanadium would be produced as a by-product of iron, or they are in crude petroleum and tar sands. In all these cases extraction depends on economic recovery of the main product.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 (tonnes of contained vanadium and% of total)

Developed Australia Finland S Africa USA

Total

Developing Chile

Centrally Planned China USSR

Total

TOTAL

Mine Production

2132(a) 15325

800 18257

4500 9550

14050

32307

(a) 1985 only production ceased in 1986. 310

% of Production

(6.6) (47.4) (2.5)

(56.5)

(13.9) (29.6) (43.5)

Productive Capacity

900 3800

22680 8980

36360

1090

6530 20865 27395

64845

Vanadium

In addition, Japan recovered 760 tonnes of vanadium, and the USA a further 2788 tonnes, from petroleum residues, ashes and spent catalysts. Country of origin of the raw material is unknown. Respective production capacities are 1,090 tonnes and 7,890 tonnes. W Germany, USSR and several European countries also recover vanadium from petroleum residues but insufficient data are available to allow reliable estimates to be made of either output or capacities.



CONSUMPTION


European Community Japan United States (a)

(a) Reported consumption.

c. 8000-9000 2794 4169


HSLA steels 26 Other steels 56 Non-ferrous alloys 16 Others, including cast irons,

chemicals and catalysts 2



n/a probably fell 8.7

-0.3

n/a 0.2

-5.7

$450 million (contained metal at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Niobium, molybdenum, titanium, chromium, manganese and tungsten can sometimes substitute for vanadium in steel although at higher cost or with lower performance. Heat-treated carbon steels can replace vanadium steels in some applications.

Platinum can be used in some catalytic processes but at higher cost.

311

Vanadium


Possible recovery from low grade dolomitic shales and sandstones and extractions from tar sands and oil shales.

Potential new chemical applications.

Extended use of HSLA steels and vanadium superalloys.

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

US Pentoxide/Chemical $/lb V205 4.47 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52

US Pentoxide/Chemical Real 1987 price 4.59 4.59 4.49 4.47 4.62

US Pentoxide/Metallurgical (fused) $/lb V205 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

F errov an ad i urn US Producer 80% v $/lb 8.5 7.08 6.48 5.29 6.31

Mainly producer pricing.


1987

4.52

4.52

3.5

6.54

Mainly produced as by-product or co-product of other metals, especially iron and uranium. S Africa, especially Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corp, and USSR are the world's major producers, with China becoming increasingly important. The trend is towards vertical integration through ferrovanadium production facilities. US producers of ferrovanadium are facing increasing competitive pressures from lower cost imports.

312

102

101

100

99

VANADIUM US pentoxide/chemical V 20 5


---, \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \

\ I \ I \ I \. I

' I ', I

',1

~, I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \ I \

Vanadium

98~-------r-------r------~------~~----~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

313

Vanadium


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores and concentrates:

Mine (V content) c. 800 Oil Residues & spent catalysts (V content) 760 2788

Ferrovanadium n/a n/a n/a

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores, slags and residues 27162 1050

(gross) (V cont) Vanadium oxides 316 7549 3444 230

(V cont (V cont (V cont (V cont) c. 177) c. 4227) c. 1928)

F errov an ad i urn 587 1603 412 631 (V cont (V cont (V cont (V cont) c. 411) c. 1122) c. 288)

Vanadium metal 142 254

Source of Net Im~orts (%)

Vanadium ~entoxide European Community 29 2 5 Finland 50 22 S Africa 3 21 84 70 United States 2 2 China 15 55 10 24 Others and unspecified 3 2

F errov an ad i urn Austria 31 90 56 22 Canada 28 European Community 68 39 34 S Africa 14 United States 1 Others 1 9 5 2

314

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) (tonnes) Ores, concentrate and slag

Vanadium pentoxide

F errov an ad i urn

Vanadium compounds Vanadium metal

(a) Excludes W Germany.

UK

59 (V cont c. 33)

200 (V cont c. 140)

14

(b) Excludes Belgium-Luxembourg

Consumption (1985/86 Averages)

EC(10) Japan

3201 (gross)

123 (a) (V cont c. 69) 1987 (b) 52

(V cont (V cont c. 1251) c. 36)

99

(tonnes) c. 550-600 c. 8000-9000 2794 (V cont) (V cont) (V cont)



Share of World Consumption (%) Western world (approx) 3 c. 38 13

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s -3 n/a 8.7

(iron & (probably steel fell)

industry)

315

Vanadium

USA

40 (V cont)

780 (V cont)

307 (V cont)

302

4169 (reported)

46 (reported)

36 (reported)

24

-0.3

VERMICULITE

WORLD RESERVES

Western world reserves are estimated at 45 million tonnes, 50% in the United States, 40% in South Africa and 7% in Brazil. Substantial deposits exist in China, the USSR and other centrally planned economies, but their combined material has generally inferior exfoliation characteristics.

The reserve base is 180 million tonnes and total world resources are approximately 550 million tonnes.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION (•ooo tonnes and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 0.6 (0.1) Argentina 5.1 (1.0) n/a Japan 17 (3.3) Brazil 11.2 (2.2) S Africa 188.9 (36.6) Egypt 0.5 (0.1) USA 286.5 (55.4) India 4.4 (0.9)

Kenya 2.0 (0.4) Mexico 0.2 _h)

Totals 493.0 (95.5) 23.4 (4.5) n/a

Total

516.4 (Western world)

Percentages shown are for Western world only.

PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985

Western world productive capacity totals 635 tonnes of which 360 tonnes is located in the USA and 205 tonnes in S Africa.



316

CONSUMPTION

European Community Japan United States (apparent

consumption)


n/a c. 25

298


Exfoliated vermiculite:

Agriculture 23 Insulation 20 Lightweight concrete aggregate 20 Plaster and cement premises 32 Other 2


Vermiculite


n/a n/a

1.9

n/a n/a

-0.3

$ 67 million (Western world production at 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

In lightweight concrete and plaster, expanded perlite, expanded clay shale, or slate substitute. Fibreglass, foam and slag wool are amongst the alternatives for insulation, and a variety of substitutes is available in agricultural applications.


Newly designed furnaces with higher throughput, and improved thermal efficiency are becoming available.

The development of new composite materials is increasing the utilisation of vermiculite.

Development of new uses for finer sized exfoliated vermiculite.

The need for a safer alternative is asbestos has prompted much research on vermiculite.

317

Vermiculite

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Vermiculite: Montana/S Carolina $/tonne 108.3 111.0 125.1 130.8 134.9 125 Real 1987 price 111.3 112.6 124.0 130.3 138.4 125

S Africa $/tonne 143.3 143.3 143.3 135.0 140.5 135

South African material is generally higher quality than the US vermiculite.

Transport costs are important.


The Palabora Mining Company in South Africa and W R Grace & Co in the United States produce the larger part of the world's mined output. There are two other much smaller companies in the United States. Exfoliation plants are usually sited close to final markets for economic reasons.

318

120

110

100

90

VERMICULITE Montana/S Carolina


Vermiculite

801~--------~------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

319

Vermiculite


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 17 287

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 52.6 n/a 33.3


European Community 28 S Africa 72 n/a 100

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) 1.5 n/a 21.8

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes) c. 50 n/a c. 25 298




Western world 10 n/a 5 58

Consumption Growth (% p.a.) 1970s 3.6 n/a n/a 1.9

320

ZINC

WORLD RESERVES (million tonnes of contained zinc and% of total)


Australia 18 {10.7) Brazi 1 2 ( 1. 2) China 5 (3.0) Canada 26 {15.4) India 5 {3.0) Poland 3 (1.8) Ireland 5 {3.0) Iran 5 {3.0) USSR 11 {6.5) Japan 4 {2.4) Mexico 7 {4.1) Others 4 {2.4) S Africa 11 (6.5) Peru 8 {4.7) Spain 6 {3.5) Zaire 7 {4.1) USA 22 (13.0) Other America 3 {1.8) Others 10 {5.9) Other Africa 1 {0.6)

Others _6~) --- ----Totals 102 {60.4) 44 (26.0) 23 {13.6) Grand Total 169

The reserve base totals 300 million tonnes and identified world resources total 1.8 billion tonnes. If hypothetical and subeconomic resources are included the total would be about 4.4 billion tonnes.

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION {'000 tonnes of contained zinc and% of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 718.7 (10.4) Bolivia 35.8 {0.5) Bulgaria 69.0 {1.0) Canada 1231.5 (17.9) Brazil 92.2 ( 1. 3) China 210.0 (3.1) W Germany 110.7 {1.6) S Korea 39.8 (0.6) N Korea 205.0 (3.0) Greenland 66.2 {1.0) Mexico 288.0 (4.2) Poland 187.4 (2. 7) Finland 60.5 (0.9) Peru 590.1 (8.6) Romania 39.5 (0.6) Ireland 186.7 (2. 7) Zambia 50.8 (0.7) USSR 985.0 (14.3) Italy 35.9 (0.5) Zaire 77.9 (1.1) Others 16.9 (0.2) Japan 237.6 {3.5) Others 319.2 (4.6) S Africa 99.4 (1.4) Spain 229.7 (3.3) Sweden 217.9 (3.2) USA 234.0 (3.4) Yugoslavia 92.0 (1.3) Others 151.2 ~) Totals 3672.0 (53.4) 1493.8 (21.7) 1712.8 (24.9) Grand Total 6878.6

321

Zinc

WORLD SMELTER PRODUCTION (•ooo tonnes of zinc metal and % of total 1985/86 Averages)


Australia 297.2 (4.4) Algeria 32.7 (0.4) Bulgaria 90.0 (1.3) Austria 24.6 (0.4) Argentina 29.8 (0.4) China 217.5 (3.2) Belgium 270.0 (4.0) Brazi 1 122.9 (1.8) E Germany 17.0 (0.3) Canada 631.7 (9.4) India 72.4 (1.1) N Korea 190.0 (2.8) Finland 158.0 (2.4) S Korea 117.5 (1.8) Poland 179.6 (2. 7) France 252.3 (3.8) Mexico 180.4 (2.7) Romania 42.0 (0.6) W Germany 369.2 (5.5) Peru 159.6 (2.4) USSR 1040.0 (15.5) Italy 220.3 (3.3) Thailand 59.4 (0.9) Vietnam 10.0 (0.1) Japan 723.8 (10.8) Zambia 22.5 (0.3) Netherlds 199.9 (3.0) Zaire 64.0 (1.0) Norway 91.6 (1.4) Portugal 5.8 (0.1) S Africa 87.3 (1.3) Spain 206.3 (3.1) Turkey 18.8 (0.3) UK 80.1 (1.2) USA 325.1 (4.9) Yugoslavia 86.4 ____{ld) ----Totals 4048.4 (60.5) 861.2 (12.9) 1786.1 (26.7) Grand Total 6695.7

322

WORLD MINE AND SMELTER CAPACITY, 1985 {'000 tonnes of metal)

Developed Australia Belgium Canada Finland France W Germany Greenland Ireland Italy Japan S Africa Spain Sweden USA Yugoslavia Others

Total

Developing S Korea Mexico Peru Zaire Zambia Others

Total

Centrally Planned China Poland USSR Others

Total

TOTAL

Mine

740

1510 65 40

125 140 210 60

280 130 260 220 377 120 170

4447

110 340 610

90 60

765 1975

200 220 820 330

1570

7992

* Metal capacities refer to end 1986.

323

Metal*

339 325 705 160 325 415

254 797 105 268

300 160 456

4609

200 277 185

72 55

417 1206

240 240

1080 350

1910

7725

Zinc

Zinc

SECONDARY PRODUCTION: WESTERN WORLD ('000 tonnes of zinc 1985/86 Averages)

Scrap used by primary smelters (and included in primary output) 410 Remelted zinc and alloys 167 Zinc in copper and other alloys 452 Scrap as such, used by chemical plants etc. 270 Total secondary recovery additional to smelter output 889

Total secondary recovery 1299



CONSUMPTION

25

1.6 1


% p.a. growth rates 1960-70 1970-80 1980-86

European Community Japan United States Others Total Western world

Total world

1336.9 766.5 969.6

1689.5 4762.5

6591.5

3.2 13.6 3.3 7.1 5.1

5.1

0.8 2.2

-2.4 5.1 1.4

2.3

-0.3

3.6 2.9 1.6

1.4

Data refers to consumption of slab zinc. They exclude remelted zinc.

324


USA2 UK1 W Germany1 Japan3

Galvanising 50 37 26 58 Die-casting alloys 24 19 14 17 Brass 10 23 37 13 Rolled zinc 4 2 12 3 Others 12 19 10 8

1. Zinc in all forms including scrap 2. Slab zinc including secondary refined 3. Slab zinc including secondary distilled zinc

Source: ILZSG


$6.5 billion (as slab metal at average 1987 prices).

SUBSTITUTES

Aluminium, magnesium and plastics compete in some die-casting applications.

Ceramic and plastic coatings, electroplated cadmium and aluminium, and special steels compete in some galvanising applications.

Aluminium, magnesium and titanium can replace zinc in chemicals and pigments; zirconium is an alternative in ceramic and enamel applications.

Aluminium alloys, stainless steels and plastics can be used in place of brass.


Development of new alloys, eg superplastic alloys of zinc and aluminium.

Possibility of zinc batteries after 1990.

Increased recovery of secondary zinc.

Potential for more use in the automobile and construction industry, especially as a coating against rusting on steel sheets and plates.

325

1986

Zinc

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

t/lb LME Cash 33.8 34.7 40.5 34.9 34.3 36.2 US Producer 38.5 41.4 48.6 40.4 40.58 44.17 European Producer 37.8 37.2 45.3 37.9 38.9 62.0

i/tonne LME Cash* 425.1 505.1 667.2 593.3 515.57 487.08 LME Cash

Rea 1 1987 price 436.3 512.8 662.9 587.2 529.4 487.08 LME Cash monthly 393.3- 443.3- 610.9- 397.3- 402.3 440.3-

average range 445.3 597.3 720.0 807.5 -638.3 567.0

* High grade 1986 onwards

Most zinc metal is traded at producer prices, but with LME quotations becoming more and more important both directly and as a major influence on producer prices. Ores and concentrates are purchased by smelters at producer prices less negotiated treatment charges. Mine costs are influenced bj by-product values. Capital costs are such that most new mines need well over t 40/lb.


There is wide geographical spread of production with over 300 mines, but much smaller number of smelters, which determine prices. Market leadership in USA, and producer pricing in Europe. Latter is weakened by persistent recession, and growth of smelter production near mines in developing countries, often under state control. United Nations' International Lead and Zinc Study Group is an intergovernmental forum for statistical analysis and discussion of common problems.

326

140

130

120

110

100

90

ZINC LME cash


801~--------r-------~--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

327

Zinc

Zinc


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production {1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes Zn content) Mine production 5.3 435.6 237.6 234.0

Smelter production 80.1 1394.4 723.8 325.1 Zinc recovered from scrap

(other than zinc in primary smelters) 53.3 350-400 138.3 277.5

Net Imports {1985/86 Averages) {'000 tonnes Zn content) Ores and concentrates 78.5 1010.7 432.2 144.0 Unwrought zinc metal 116.2 163.4 78.4 638.5

Source of Net Imports {%)

Ores and concentrates Australia 27 13 55 2 Canada 28 31 11 68 European Community 2 S Africa (inc. Namibia) 3 1 2 Spain 4 Sweden 11 Bolivia 2 Honduras 8 3 10 Mexico 6 6 1 7 Peru 16 19 24 13 Morocco 2 2 N Korea 1 Others 8 8 5 Metal Australia 9 6 Canada 29 24 8 57 European Community 30 8 Finland 25 34 3 Norway 9 22 2 Spain 2 3 5 Mexico 13 8 Peru 17 6 Zaire 1 2 2 Zambia 2 China 6 N Korea 43 Poland 6 Others 3 8 3 3

328

Zinc


Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Zn content) Ores and concentrates 3.9 41.6 17.1 Unwrought zinc metal 9.8 178.1 28.4 3.0

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ('000 tonnes Zn content) Primary metal 185.6 1336.9 766.5 980.0 Zinc recovered from scrap 53.3 350-400 39.6 (a) 342.5 Direct use of concentrates n/a 32.1

(a) Remelted zinc only



Share of World Consumption (%) (primary metal) Western world 4 28 16 20 Total world 3 20 12 15

Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) 1960s 0.7 3.2 13.6 3.3 1970s -3 0.8 2.2 -2.4

329

ZIRCONIUM

WORLD RESERVES ('000 tonnes of zirconium and% of total)


Australia 7900 (37.4) Brazi 1 225 ( 1.1) USSR 2720 (12.9) S Africa 3085 (14.6) India 1635 ( 7. 7) China 360 ( 1. 7) USA 3630 (17.2) Madagascar 90 (0.4)

Malaysia & Thailand 90 (0.4)

Sierra Leone 455 (2.2) Sri Lanka ---- 910 __lid) -----

Totals 14615 (69.3) 3405 (16.1) 3080 (14.6)

Grand Total 21100

The reserve base is 46.3 million tonnes and includes, in addition to the above countries, deposits in Canada.

The world's identified resources exceed 50 million tonnes of contained zirconium.

330

Zirconium

WORLD MINE PRODUCTION, 1985/86, and PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY, 1985 ('000 tonnes of contained zirconium)

Mine Production Concentrates Contained

'000 t zirconium '000

Develo~ed

Australia 460 237 S Africa 160 84 USA 70 35

Total 690 356

Develo~ing

Brazil 12 6 India 15 7.5 Malaysia 12 6 Sri Lanka 4 2 Thailand 1 ~5

Total 44 22.0

Centrall~ Planned China 15 7.5 USSR 86 43

Total 101 50.5

TOTAL 835 428.5

Concentrates typically contain at least 65% zircon in zirconium.



CONSUMPTION

49

c. 3.5 1

(approximate consumption of concentrates)



c. 225-240 c. 220

131

331

% of Productive t total capacity

55.3 272 19.6 64 8.2 45

83.1 381

1.4 4 1.7 7 1.4 3 0.5 4 0.1 n/a 5.1 18

1.8 8 10.0 41 11.8 49

100.0 448

(Zr02), and 74% of zircon


4.2 8.4 0.2

n/a n/a 2.0

Zirconium


Zircon

Foundry sands Refractories Ceramics Alloys Zirconia and abrasives Other, including chemicals, and metal

for nuclear applications and chemical processing equipment



SUBSTITUTES

USA

35 24 n/a

4 10

26

Japan

23 50

5

22

Chromite, olivine and silica sand can be used in place of zircon in some foundry applications. Titanium and tin compounds can replace zirconium oxide in ceramics.

A number of alternatives are available in the nuclear applications, notably stainless steel as a structural material and aluminium, niobium and vanadium for fuel containers.

Stainless steel, titanium and tantalum are substitutes in many corrosionresistant industrial applications.

Many materials, particularly ferroalloys, compete with zirconium in ferrous metal applications.

Alumina, graphite and magnesia refractories compete with zirconium refractories.


Replacement of zirconia abrasives by synthetic diamond and cubic boron nitride abrasives.

Potential use as ceramic coating in aircraft engines and other applications where strength and high temperature oxidation are important.

Increased recovery of zircon sand and zirconium metal.

Change in metallurgical methods of production could significantly reduce costs of production. Changes in metallurgical techniques would allow greater use of zirconium in industrial applications.

332

Zirconium

PRICES

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Zircon sand

66-67% Zr02

Standard grade A$/tonne 113 115 110.8 124.4 165.4 216.8

Real 1987 price 116 116.7 110.1 123.1 169.8 216.8


Australia and S Africa are the principal sources of concentrates. Metal production is in Japan, France and the USA.

333

Zirconium

ZIRCONIUM Sand SG 66-67% Zr02


100

90

80

70

60

rea/1987 terms

money terms

50~--------~-------r--------~------~--------~ 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

334

Zirconium


UK EC(10) Japan USA

Production (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Zircon concentrates c. 70 Zirconium oxide n/a n/a n/a 7.7

(exc. metal producers)

Zirconium sponge and metal n/a n/a n/a n/a

Net Imports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes)

Zircon, ores & concentrates 41.1 24g,7 205 54.2 Zirconium oxide 0.72 0.37 n/a 0.9 Zirconium sponge and metal 0.14 0.39 0.14 0.35 Zirconium compounds n/a n/a n/a 2.29


Ores and concentrates Australia 54 66 85 55 European Community 2 S Africa 41 30 12 30 Argentina 12 Other 3 4 3 3

Net Exports (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Zircon concentrates 0.4 22.25 15.6 Zirconium oxide 0.96 0.94 1.3 Zirconium metal 1.52 0.33 1.06

Consumption (1985/86 Averages) ( 1 000 tonnes) Zircon concentrates c. 40 225-240 c. 200 131 Zirconium oxide n/a n/a n/a 6.4 Zirconium metal n/a n/a n/a c. 3

335

Zirconium

UK EC(10) Japan

Im~ort De~endence (based on zircon concentrates) Imports as % of consumption Imports as % of consumption

and net exports

Share of World Consum~tion (of concentrates) (%) Total world (approx.)

Consum~tion Growth (% p.a.) All forms 1970s

as concentrate

100 100 100

100 100 100

c. 5 c. 27 c. 25

-1.7 4.2 8.4 (based on imports of concentrate)

336

USA

41

37

15

0.2

SOURCES AND NOTES

This handbook has drawn from a very wide range of primary and secondary statistical sources that are almost too numerous to mention. Frequently, different sources may give markedly different estimates for what is ostensibly the same figure, even when full allowance is made for differing definitions. In such instances judgement has been used. Widely varying units of measurement are used in the originals, and this handbook has standardised, with one or two exceptions on metric units.

The main sources were as follows:

World Reserves

For nearly all minerals the data are taken from US Bureau of Mines' sources, and mainly from:

Mineral Facts and Problems. 1985 Edition. Bureau of Mines Bulletin 671 Mineral Commodity Summaries 1987 Minerals Yearbook Volume 1. Metals and Minerals 1985 and 1986

Production, Consumption and Trade

The same sources as for reserves, supplemented by: World Mineral Statistics {1982-1986), published by the British Geological Survey United Kingdom Mineral Statistics {1982-1986) - British Geological Survey Metal Statistics (1976-1986) - Metallgesellschaft, particularly for the main non-ferrous metals World Metal Statistics (December 1987) - World Bureau of Metal Statistics United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Iron and Steel Statistics {1985 and 1986) - Eurostat Lead and Zinc Statistics (December 1987) - International Lead and Zinc Study Group International Tin Council Monthly Statistical Bulletin (Dec 1987) Foreign Trade Analytical Tables for 1985 and 1986 (NIMEXE) - Eurostat Statistics of Japanese Imports and Exports for 1985 and 1986 United States Trade Statistics for 1985 and 1986 Yearbook of Mining, Non-Ferrous Metals and Products Statistics - MITI Mining Year Handbook - MITI Publications of British Sulphur Corporation 'Gold' - Consolidated Goldfields {1987 edition) Silver- Handy & Harman {1986 edition) Mining Annual Review 1987 - Mining Journal Publications Engineering and Mining Journal (March 1987 and April 1988 issues) Australian Mineral Statistics (quarterly). Canberra Tungsten Statistics - Quarterly Bulletin of the UNCTAD Committee on Tungsten TEX Report- Ferro-Alloy Manual TEX Report - Iron Ore Manual Mineral Industry Surveys - Supply/Demand Data 1975-85 - USBM (for productive capacities) FAO Fertiliser Yearbooks Annuario Mineral Basileiro 1986 The Rare Metal News

337

Sources and Notes

Prices

Yearbook of Fertilisers (Japanese) Sumisho Non-Ferrous Metal News - Sumitomo Shoji K.K. Metal News. The Japan News Industry Association Aluminium, Copper, Lead and Zinc World Flow Tables - World Bureau of Metal Statistics Uranium. Resources, Production and Demand (successive issues) - OECD Nuclear Energy Agency.IAEA

Metals Week Handbooks 1982-1986 Metal Bulletin Handbooks 1982-1986 Industrial Minerals Engineering and Mining Journal USBM Mineral Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summaries IMF - International Financial Statistics UN -Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Sulphur - B.S.C.

Prices are yearly averages unless otherwise stated.

End Use Patterns

Minerals Yearbook 1986 Edition Mineral Commodity Summaries 1987

Reserve/Production Ratios

The forecasts of cumulative demand underlying the 'dynamic' reserve ratios were taken mainly from Mineral Facts and Problems. In a few cases the US Bureau of Mines' forecasts were altered where they appeared unreasonable.

338

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