supplementary material to anna l. morozova, tatiana v ... · by anna l. morozova, tatiana v....
TRANSCRIPT
1
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL TO The role of climatic forcings in variations of Portuguese temperature: a comparison of spectral and statistical methods by Anna L. Morozova, Tatiana V. Barlyaeva
CONTENT page
1 Forcings series 2
Table S1 2
Figure S1 3
2 STL components and wavelet spectra of the seasonal temperature series 4
Figure S2 5
Figure S3 6
Figure S4 7
Figure S5 8
3 Wavelet spectra of the STL temperature components 9
Figure S6 10
Figure S7 11
Figure S8 12
Figure S9 13
4 Multiple regression models for the seasonal temperature series 14
Figure S10 15
Figure S11 16
5 Wavelet coherency of temperature and forcings series on multi-decadal time scales 17
Figure S12 18
Figure S13 19
Figure S14 20
Figure S15 21
Figure S16 22
2
1 Forcings series Table S1. Correlation coefficients between the geomagnetic indices (1888-2001): aa, IHV, IDV and the composite GAi indices. All correlation coefficients are statistically significant (p values ≤ 0.01).
original STL Trend STL noTrend IHV IDV aa IHV IDV aa IHV IDV aa
IHV 0.81 0.90 0.995 0.96 0.76 0.86 IDV 0.78 0.94 0.71 GAi 0.96 0.92 0.95 0.994 0.99 0.98 0.94 0.90 0.93
Figure S1 shows parent and final composite series for (a) CO2, (b) anthropogenic sulfates, (c-e) geomagnetic indices (c – original, d – STL Trend, e – STL noTrend series). The correlation coefficient (r) with corresponding statistical significances (p) between the parent geomagnetic indices (aa, IDV, IHV) and the composite GAi series are shown in brackets. (f) comparison of the SSN22 series (as defined in the main manuscript, Sec. 2.2.3, grey line) and observations of the Solar Polar magnetic field (SPMF, filtered, annual means; red line) for the solar Northern hemisphere by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). The forward lagged SSN22 series (lags of 4 and 5 yr) are shown by dashed lines. Right Y-axis (SSN22) is reversed. References:
Mann, M.E., Gille, E.P., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Overpeck, J., Keimig, F.T., Gross, W., 2000a. Global Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: An Interactive Presentation. IGBP Pages/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Data Contribution Series #2000-075., NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. On-line: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ei/
Mann, M.E., Gille, E.P., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Overpeck, J., Keimig, F.T., Gross, W., 2000b. Global Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: An Interactive Presentation. Earth Interactions 4, 4.
McConnell, J.R., Edwards, R., Kok, G.L., Flanner, M.G., Zender, C.S., Saltzman, E.S., Banta, J.R., Pasteris, D.R., Carter, M.M., Kahl, J.D.W., 2007a. Greenland D4 Ice Core Black Carbon, VA, and nssS Data. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2007-060, NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. On-line: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/greenland/greenland.html
Robertson, A., Overpeck, J., Rind, D., Mosley‐Thompson, E., Zielinski, G., Lean, J., Koch, D, Penner, J., Tegen, I., Healy, R., 2001a. Hypothesized Climate Forcing Time Series for the Last 500 Years, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2001-057, NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. On-line: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/robertson2001/robertson2001.html
Robertson, A., Overpeck, J., Rind, D., Mosley‐Thompson, E., Zielinski, G., Lean, J., Koch, D., Penner, J., Tegen, I., Healy, R., 2001b. Hypothesized climate forcing time series for the last 500 years. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 106 (D14), 14,783-14,803.
Sato, M., Hansen, J.E., McCormick, M.P., Pollack, J.B., 1993. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 22987-22994.
Smith, S.J., van Aardenne, J., Klimont, Z., Andres, R.J., 2011. Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, 1850-2005: National and Regional Data Set by Source Category, Version 2.86. Palisades, NY: NASA. On-line: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/haso2-anthro-sulfur-dioxide-emissions-1850-2005-v2-86
WSO Polar Field Observations - 1976-Present - http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
280
300
320
340
360
380 reconstruction by Robertson et al. (2001a, 2001b) reconstruction by Mann et al. (2000a, 2000b) Mauna Loa Observatory measurements composite
CO
2, ppm
a)
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
b) nssS - non-sea-salt sulfur content in Greenland ice cores, from McConnell et al., 2007a, 2007b
low envelope for nssS estimates of the anthropogenic SO
2 emissions by SEDAC),
from Smith et al., 2011
volcanic sulfates = stratospheric AOD calculated for NH, from Sato et al., 1993
anhtropogenic sulfates = nssS minus volcanic sulfates
non-
sea
salt
sul
fur,
ng
nssS
/g
1975
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
anthrop. SO
2 emission, T
g
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
AO
D
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
10
20
30
40
50
Geomagnetic indices: aa (r = 0.95, p < 0.001) IDV (r = 0.92, p < 0.001) IHV (r = 0.96, p < 0.001)
GAi, normalized
geom
agne
tic
indi
ces,
arb
. u.
GA
i, arb.u.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
c)
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
10
20
30
40
Geomagnetic indices:Trend components
aa (r = 0.982, p < 0.001) IDV (r = 0.986, p < 0.001) IHV (r = 0.994, p < 0.001)
GAi, normalized
geom
agne
tic
indi
ces,
arb
. u.
GA
i, arb.u.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
d)
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-10
0
10
20
Geomagnetic indices:noTrend components
aa (r = 0.926, p < 0.001) IDV (r = 0.898, p < 0.001) IHV (r = 0.941, p < 0.001)
GAi, normalized
geom
agne
tic
indi
ces,
arb
. u.
GA
i, arb.u.
-2
-1
0
1
2
e)
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5Polar mg. f. (NH, fileterd, annual): SSN
22:
SSN22 lagged forward by 4 & 5 yrs: &
Sol
ar P
olar
mag
neti
c fi
eld,
G
SS
N22 =
SS
N w
. sign
4-5 yrs lagr (Polar mg.f. vs SSN22) = -0.9
reversed!f)
4
2 STL components and wavelet spectra of the seasonal temperature series Figure S2 shows seasonal series of the Tmin and their STL components: winter (a-b), spring (d-e), summer (g-h) and autumn (j-k) series. Dashed lines with dots show the original PC1 series, thin lines – the Smoothed (STL with np = 1), thick lines – the Trends and lines with circles – the 11-yr Cyclic (open circles) and 22-yr Cyclic (solid circles) components (STL with np = 11 and 22, correspondingly). Wavelet power spectra of the Smoothed series (winter– c, spring – f, summer – i, autumn – l) are shown. Periods on spectra maps are in years, wavelet power amplitudes are non-dimensional. Figure S3 is same as Figure S2 but for Tmax; Figure S4 is same as Figure S2 but for averT; Figure S5 is same as Figure S2 but for DTR.
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
arb. unitarb. unit
PC1 Tmin winter STL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
a)
DTR
a)
b)
c)Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-2
-1
0
1
21890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
PC1 Tmin spring STL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
arb. unit arb. unit
e)
DTR
d)
f)
Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-1.0-0.50.00.51.0
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
PC1 Tmin summer STL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
h)
g)
arb. unit arb. unit
i)
Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
PC1 Tmin autumnSTL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
k)
j)
arb. unit arb. unit
l)
Smoothed
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
arb. unitarb. unit
PC1 Tmax winter STL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
a)
DTR
a)
b)
c)Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2-10121890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0
PC1 Tmax spring STL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
arb. unit arb. unit
e)
DTR
d)
f)
Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-2
-1
0
1
21890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0
PC1 Tmax summer STL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
h)
g)
arb. unit arb. unit
i)
Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0
PC1 Tmax autumnSTL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
k)
j)
arb. unit arb. unit
l)
Smoothed
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
arb. unitarb. unit
PC1 averT winter STL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
a)a)
b)
c)Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-1
0
1
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4.0-2.00.02.04.0
PC1 averT springSTL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
arb. unit arb. unit
e)
d)
f)
Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.51890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4.0-2.00.02.04.0
PC1 averT summerSTL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
h)
g)
arb. unit arb. unit
i)
Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4.0-2.00.02.04.0
PC1 averT autumnSTL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
k)
j)
arb. unit arb. unit
l)
Smoothed
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
arb. unitarb. unit
PC1 DTR winter STL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
a)a)
b)
c)Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
PC1 DTR springSTL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
arb. unit arb. unit
e)
DTR
d)
f)
Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2.0
0.0
2.0
PC1 DTR summerSTL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
h)
g)
arb. unit arb. unit
i)
Smoothed
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.01890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4.0-2.00.02.04.0
PC1 DTR autumnSTL: Smoothed 22-yr Trend 11-yr Cyclic 22-yr Cyclic
k)
j)
arb. unit arb. unit
l)
Smoothed
9
3 Wavelet spectra of the STL temperature components Figure S6 shows wavelet spectra of Tmin annual series: original, Smoothed, Trend, noTrend and Cyclic. These spectra show that the STL filtering does not add new periodicities into the temperature series but separates variations with different time scales. On the other hand, the statistical significances of specific periodicities in the wavelet spectra of the filtered series increase. In our case: Original series = Smoothed (or STL np=1 Trend) + STL np=1 residuals (discarded from the following analysis). Smoothed series = STL np=22 Trend and noTrend components Trend = STL np=22 Cyclic + STL np=22 Residuals (wavelet spectra not shown here) components Figure S7 is same as Figure S6 but for the Tmax series; Figure S8 is same as Figure S6 but for the averT series; Figure S9 is same as Figure S6 but for the DTR series.
10
O
rigin
al
Smoo
thed
(S
TL
np=
1 T
rend
) an
d S
TL
np=
1 re
sidu
als
(filt
ere
d sh
ort
term
com
pone
nt)
ST
L np
=22
Tre
nd a
nd no
Tre
nd
com
pone
nts
ST
L np
=22
Cyc
lic
com
pon
ent
Figure S6. Wavelet spectra of Tmin annual series: original, Smoothed, Trend, noTrend and Cyclic.
11
Orig
inal
Smoo
thed
(S
TL
np=
1 T
rend
) an
d S
TL
np=
1 re
sidu
als
(filt
ere
d sh
ort
term
com
pone
nt)
ST
L np
=22
Tre
nd a
nd no
Tre
nd
com
pone
nts
ST
L np
=22
Cyc
lic
com
pon
ent
Figure S7. Same as Figure S6 but for Tmax.
12
Orig
inal
Smoo
thed
(S
TL
np=
1 T
rend
) an
d S
TL
np=
1 re
sidu
als
(filt
ere
d sh
ort
term
com
pone
nt)
ST
L np
=22
Tre
nd a
nd no
Tre
nd
com
pone
nts
ST
L np
=22
Cyc
lic
com
pon
ent
Figure S8. Same as Figure S6 but for averT.
13
Orig
inal
Smoo
thed
(S
TL
np=
1 T
rend
) an
d S
TL
np=
1 re
sidu
als
(filt
ere
d sh
ort
term
com
pone
nt)
ST
L np
=22
Tre
nd a
nd no
Tre
nd
com
pone
nts
ST
L np
=22
Cyc
lic
com
pon
ent
Figure S9. Same as Figure S6 but for DTR.
14
4 Multiple regression models for the seasonal temperature series Figure S10 shows Tmin noTrend components (lines with dots, a, c, e, g), their regression models (model #4, thick lines, a, c, e, g) and residuals (b, d, f, h) for the winter (a-b), spring (c-d), summer (e-f) and autumn (g-h) series. Correlation coefficients (r) between the original and the predicted series as well as the explained variance (Radj.
2) are shown. Figure S11 is same as Figure S10 but for Tmax.
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995
-2
-1
0
1
2
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-2
-1
0
1
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
r = 0.37Radj.
2= 0.13 original MRM
MRM residuals
arb.
unit
r = 0.67Radj.
2= 0.44
arb.
unit
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995
-2
-1
0
1
2
winter Tmin, noTrend spring Tmin, noTrend
a) c)
b) d)
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-2
-1
0
1
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-2
-1
0
1
21890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995
-2
-1
0
1
2 r = 0.50Radj.
2= 0.33
original MRM
MRM residuals
arb.
unit
r = 0.48Radj.
2= 0.21
arb.
unit
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995
-2
-1
0
1
2
summer Tmin, noTrend autumn Tmin, noTrend
e) g)
f) h)
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-2
-1
0
1
2
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995
-2
0
2
4
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995
-1
0
1r = 0.46Radj.
2= 0.19
original MRM
MRM residuals
arb.
unit
r = 0.53Radj.
2= 0.26
arb.
unit
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995
-2
0
2
4
winter Tmax, noTrend spring Tmax, noTrend
a) c)
b) d)
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-2
-1
0
1
2
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-2
0
2
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
r = 0.61Radj.
2= 0.35 original MRM
MRM residuals
arb.
unit
r = 0.38Radj.
2= 0.11
arb.
unit
1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995-2
0
2
4
summer Tmax, noTrend autumn Tmax, noTrend e) g)
f) h)
17
5 Wavelet coherency of temperature and forcings series on multi-decadal time scales Figure S12 shows wavelet coherence spectra of the annual Tmin (a-c) and Tmax (d-f) 11-yr Cyclic components and noTrend components of the volcanic sulfates (a, d), SSN (b, e) and GAi (c, f) series. Periods are in years, wavelet power amplitudes are non-dimensional. Figure S13 shows wavelet coherence spectra of the 11-yr Cyclic components of the seasonal Tmin and SSN series. Periods are in years, wavelet power amplitudes are non-dimensional. Figure S14 is the same as Figure S13 but for the Tmax series. Figure S15 shows wavelet coherence spectra of the 22-yr Cyclic components of the seasonal Tmin and SSN22 series. Periods are in years, wavelet power amplitudes are non-dimensional. Figure S16 is the same as Figure S15 but for the Tmax series.
