sunday times /behaviour &...

Sunday Times /Behaviour & Attitudes

July 2015 Opinion Poll 4th – 14th July 2015

Prepared for

Prepared by Ian McShane

J.6715

2

Technical Appendix

3

Technical Appendix

● The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 940 eligible Irish voters aged 18 years +.

● As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

● Fieldwork was conducted on an in-home, face-to-face basis over the period 4th – 14th July, 2015.

● The sample was stratified across constituencies at 125 locations in the country with individuals selected for interview by way of Demographic Quotas (age, gender, socio-economic status) in line with Central Statistics Office (CSO) and market research industry population estimates.

4

Technical Appendix

● The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

● Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technical adjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in support levels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking variable election day turnout levels into account.

● All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are implemented in accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).

5

Charted Summary

6

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels

12th Feb

2011 (f/w: 31st Jan – 12th Feb,

2011)

24th Aug, 2011 (f/w : 16th – 24th Aug,

2011)

2nd Oct, 2011 (f/w : 20th

Sept – 2nd Oct,

2011)

18th Oct, 2011 (f/w : 16th – 18th Oct,

2011)

12th Dec. 2011 (f/w : 7th-12th Dec,

2011)

20th Feb

2012 (f/w : 15th – 20th Feb.

2012)

17th Apr, 2012 (f/w : 11th – 17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May 2012 (f/w:

18th – 23rd May, 2012)

9th Sept. 2012 (f/w: 4th -9th Sept

2012)

13th Nov 2012 (f/w: 1st- 13th Nov

2012)

21st Jan

2013 (f/w:

15th – 21st Jan.

2013)

26th Mar 2013 (f/w: 11th -26th Mar.

2013)

24th Jun

2013 (f/w: 11th – 24th June

2013)

17th Sept 2013 (f/w 10th

Sept – 17th Sept

2013)

15th Dec 2013 (f/w 3rd – 15th Dec

2013)

19th Feb

2014 (f/w: 11th – 19th Feb

2014)

16th Apr

2014 (f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014)

13th Aug 2014 (f/w: 4th – 13th Aug

2014)

22nd Oct. (f/w: 14th – 22nd Oct.

2014)

21st Dec

(f/w: 9th – 17th Dec

2014)

11th Mar (f/w: 2nd

Mar – 11th

March 2015)

** 11th May (f/w: 1st – 11th May

2015)

** 15th June (f/w: 5th – 15th June 2015

** 14th July (f/w: 4th – 14th July 2015

The Government

5% 42% 34% 36% 26% 26% 29% 31% 24% 26% 22% 25% 24% 24% 35% 31% 28% 27% 29% 29% 35% 30% 28% 29%

Micheál Martin

43% 40% 31% 36% 40% 33% 34% 41% 34% 42% 48% 44% 43% 37% 43% 43% 45% 39% 37% 39% 38% 35% 40% 42%

Enda Kenny

40% 62% 51% 58% 44% 41% 47% 42% 38% 41% 39% 39% 37% 34% 44% 41% 40% 35% 29% 28% 32% 29% 28% 28%

Eamon Gilmore/ Joan Burton

55% 52% 43% 46% 35% 34% 37% 32% 34% 29% 26% 29% 26% 26% 32% 31% 37% 45%* 41% 34% 37% 35% 36% 34%

Gerry Adams 40% 48% 50% 50% 48% 46% 43% 42% 39% 40% 43% 45% 43% 41% 33% 39% 48% 47% 40% 34% 37% 33% 32% 32%

Eamon Ryan - 34% 30% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29% 27% 27% 30% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 33% 37% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 29%

Q.2 Q.3

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country? Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his/her job as (…….)?

*Inclusion of Joan Burton as Tánaiste ** Face-to-face surveying employed

7

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party Support Levels

12th Feb. 2011 (f/w: 31st

Jan – 12th Feb,

2011)

24th Aug, 2011 (f/w: 16th – 24th Aug,

2011)

2nd Oct, 2011 (f/w: 20th Sept – 2nd Oct,

2011)

18th Oct, 2011 (f/w: 16th – 18th Oct,

2011)

12th Dec. 2011 (f/w : 7th-12th Dec,

2011)

20th Feb. 2012 (f/w: 15th – 20th Feb.

2012)

17th Apr, 2012 (f/w: 11th – 17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May 2012 (f/w: 18th – 23rd May, 2012)

9th Sept. 2012 (f/w: 4th -9th Sept 2012)


2012)

21st Jan

2013 (f/w: 15th – 21st

Jan. 2013)


2013)

24th Jun

2013 (f/w: 11th – 24th June 2013)

17th Sept 2013 (f/w 10th Sept – 17th Sept 2013)


2013)

19th Feb

2014 (f/w: 11th – 19th Feb

2014)

16th Apr

2014 (f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014)

15th May 2014 (f/w: 3rd – 15th May

2014)


2014)

22nd Oct.

(f/w: 14th – 22nd Oct. 2014

)

21st Dec


2014)

11th Mar (f/w: 2nd

Mar – 11th

March 2015)

* 11th May (f/w: 1st – 11th May

2015)



Fianna Fáil 11% 12% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12% 12% 16% 19% 19% 19% 15% 19% 16% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 17% 15%

Fine Gael 26% 35% 26% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 17% 19% 19% 19% 21% 22% 18% 20% 18% 17% 17% 19% 19% 15% 18%

Labour 17% 9% 10% 11% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5%

Sinn Féin 10% 10% 12% 14% 15% 18% 14% 17% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 14% 11% 16% 16% 15% 22% 17% 20% 19% 17% 16% 15%

Green Party 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%

Independents/Others

10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 9% 15% 12% 14% 13% 14% 18% 16% 17% 21% 23% 17% 21% 19% 24%

Undecided 25% 22% 28% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28% 30% 29% 33% 27% 29% 30% 28% 24% 24% 25% 19% 24% 22% 24% 25% 28% 23%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

* Face-to-face surveying employed

8

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted)

12th Feb, 2011 (f/w: 31st

Jan – 12th Feb,

2011)

General

Election

Result 25th Feb

24th Aug, 2011 (f/w: 16th – 24th Aug,

2011)

2nd Oct, 2011 (f/w: 20th

Sept – 2nd Oct,

2011)

18th Oct, 2011 (f/w: 16th – 18th Oct,

2011)

12th Dec. 2011 (f/w: 7th-12th Dec,

2011)

20th Feb, 2012 (f/w: 15th – 20th Feb.

2012)

17th Apr, 2012 (f/w: 11th – 17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May 2012 (f/w: 18th – 23rd May, 2012)

9th Sept. 2012 (f/w: 4th -9th

Sept 2012)

13th Nov 2012 (f/w: 1st- 13th

Nov2012)

21st Jan

2013 (f/w: 15th

– 21stJa

n. 2013)


2013)

24th Jun

2013 (f/w: 11th – 24th June 2013)


Sept – 17th Sept 2013)


2013)

19th Feb

2014 (f/w: 11th – 19th Feb

2014)

16th Apr

2014 (f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014)


2014)


2014)

22nd Oct.

(f/w: 14th – 22nd Oct. 2014

)

21st Dec


2014)

11th Mar (f/w: 2nd

Mar – 11th

March 2015)


2015)



Fianna Fáil 15% 17% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 18% 23% 28% 27% 27% 21% 27% 21% 22% 22% 18% 19% 17% 19% 15% 24% 19%

Fine Gael 34% 36% 44% 36% 37% 30% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 26% 26% 26% 27% 29% 28% 23% 27% 22% 23% 21% 25% 25% 21% 24%

Labour 23% 19% 12% 14% 15% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 9% 5% 5% 7% 7% 6% 7%

Sinn Féin 14% 10% 13% 17% 19% 21% 25% 20% 23% 19% 17% 20% 17% 19% 20% 15% 21% 21% 20% 27% 23% 25% 25% 22% 22% 20%

Green Party 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2%

Independent/ Others

14% 16% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15% 17% 14% 17% 16% 14% 21% 17% 20% 19% 18% 23% 22% 21% 28% 30% 22% 28% 27% 30%



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Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical Note

● Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All the evidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the period between elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.

● What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland publish their raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of voters. They also build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we have reports of how people voted in the last general election as well as how they intend to vote in the next one we can use these data to model the likely level of swing from the last election results.

● We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do not answer that particular question.

● Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a forthcoming General Election.

● This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.

10

Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)

● Adjusted figures based on:

All who state they would definitely vote

Weighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a general election and who they voted for in the last election, a quarter of the way between stated voting intention and the result of the last election.

Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in last election.

2nd Oct, 2011 (f/w: 20th

Sept – 2nd Oct,

2011)

18th Oct, 2011 (f/w:

16th – 18th Oct,

2011)

12th Dec. 2011 (f/w: 7th-12th Dec,

2011)

20th Feb, 2012 (f/w:

15th – 20th Feb.

2012)

17th Apr, 2012 (f/w:

11th – 17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May 2012 (f/w:

18th – 23rd May, 2012)

9th Sept. 2012 (f/w: 4th -9th Sept 2012)


2012)

21st Jan

2013 (f/w:

15th – 21stJa

n. 2013)


2013)

24th Jun

2013 (f/w: 11th – 24th June 2013)


Sept – 17th Sept 2013)


2013)

19th Feb

2014 (f/w: 11th – 19th Feb

2014)

16th Apr

2014 (f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014)


2014)


2014)

22nd Oct.

(f/w: 14th – 22nd Oct.

2014)

21st Dec


2014)

11th Mar (f/w: 2nd

Mar – 11th

March 2015)


2015)

* 15th June (f/w: 5th – 15th June 2015


Fianna Fáil 16% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16% 16% 22% 24% 23% 24% 21% 21% 19% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 21% 18%

Fine Gael 34% 35% 29% 33% 33% 33% 31% 30% 26% 27% 27% 25% 30% 30% 21% 26% 24% 25% 24% 27% 27% 24% 24%

Labour 16% 16% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 7% 7% 11% 11% 9% 9% 7% 14% 9% 5% 9% 8% 9% 8%

Sinn Féin 14% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17% 18% 14% 19% 15% 16% 18% 15% 18% 20% 21% 19% 19% 22% 19% 20% 19% 17%

Green Party 3% 1% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1%

Independents

/ Others 17% 16% 18% 16% 18% 18% 19% 19% 18% 25% 23% 23% 21% 21% 26% 24% 22% 25% 29% 23% 26% 26% 31%



11

Preference for new Fine Gael leader

Q.11 If Fine Gael was to elect a new leader, would you prefer to see Simon Coveney, Frances Fitzgerald, or Leo Varadkar as the new Fine Gael leader?

17

12

34

15

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Simon Coveney Frances Fitzgerald Leo Varadkar None of these Don’t know

%

12

Preference for new Fine Gael leader x Demographics

Q.11 If Fine Gael was to elect a new leader, would you prefer to see Simon Coveney, Frances Fitzgerald, or Leo Varadkar as the new Fine Gael leader?

Total

Gender Age Class Region Area

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins ter

Muns ter

Conn/ Ulster

Urban Rural

Base: 940 459 481 245 367 328 416 471 53 259 260 257 164 605 335

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Simon Coveney

17 21 13 13 15 24 18 16 19 10 15 24 20 13 22

Frances Fitzgerald

12 10 13 9 11 15 11 12 12 19 10 7 10 14 8

Leo Varadkar 34 33 35 32 37 32 41 27 41 39 41 25 29 34 34

None of these 15 18 12 14 15 14 16 14 12 13 13 16 16 16 13

Don’t know 23 18 27 32 21 15 15 30 16 18 21 28 26 23 23

Total

Party Support

Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour Party Green Party Sinn Fein Independent/ Others

Would not vote/ Don’t

know

Base: 940 142 175 54 10 143 209 207

% % % % % % % %

Simon Coveney 17 26 16 26 37 11 18 12

Frances Fitzgerald 12 7 14 7 34 11 13 12

Leo Varadkar 34 39 49 33 16 30 33 23

None of these 15 11 7 15 13 26 17 13

Don’t know 23 18 13 19 - 22 19 39

13

Commentary

14

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series

Background

Fieldwork for today’s poll was conducted over the period 4th – 14th July last. Surveying therefore took place precisely one month after the last poll in the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes series, with June’s poll having registered an uplift in support for Fianna Fáil, and a corresponding dip in Fine Gael’s fortunes, albeit from what had been a 12 month high.

Since that last poll, the Government has been attempting to build upon its recent successes in shepherding through the beginnings of an economic recovery, with increasingly positive noises being made in relation to the content of the forthcoming October Budget. With unemployment levels continuing to fall and consumer spending finally increasing, both Fine Gael and Labour could reasonably expect their poll ratings to have at least stabilised over the last four weeks, with a view to their increasing steadily during the Autumn.

Depending on the extent of any such Government party poll increases, all of the media buzz is around whether Enda Kenny will cut and run for a November election, or see the Government’s full term out until early in the New Year.

Meanwhile, all of the international news headlines have focused on the unfolding Greek Bailout Tragedy, which culminated in that country’s humiliation at the hands of the European Union right throughout fieldwork for today’s poll.

15


Background

While there is undoubtedly much sympathy for the plight of the Greek people, and the austerity which they must now face over the coming years, it is generally acknowledged that Alexis Tsipras, and the Syriza Government in general, handled the negotiations disastrously, with the last minute calling of a referendum merely serving to plunge the country’s finances into deeper turmoil.

These international developments may well have a longer term effect on the Irish political landscape, insofar as it may damage the standing and credibility of Sinn Féin, which has of course made much of its alignment with the policies and strategies of the Syriza party.

Back on the domestic stage, much of the limelight has been captured by the various independent TDs in the Dáil, across a range of issues.

For example, over the last few weeks Mick Wallace has made a number of shocking revelations under Dáil privilege regarding the workings of NAMA, including the manner in which its Northern Ireland properties were disposed of, and whether this represented best value for money to the Irish taxpayer.

16


Background

Similarly, Independent TD Paul Murphy has been a constant presence on our TV screens as he needled the Government as to precisely how many households had actually paid their water bills so far.

At a broader level, we have witnessed that amorphous entity heretofore referred to as ‘Independent Candidates’ coalesce into a number of more clearly defined entities, with all of the publicity that these developments have generated.

Thus, we still have the Anti Austerity Alliance with its titular head Paul Murphy continuing to agitate mainly on the water charges issue. In addition, there is the newly formed Independent Alliance fronted by Shane Ross and Finian McGrath. Lucinda Creighton’s RENUA is beginning to settle in and, while its formation was only announced after fieldwork for this poll was complete, there was last’s week’s announcement of the establishment of the Social Democrats by Roisin Shortall, Stephen Donnelly and Catherine Murphy.

These developments could be a game changer at the next General Election, insofar as they provide clarity around the policies and potential effectiveness of the circa 30% ‘Independent candidates’ bloc, thereby rendering them a more potentially attractive proposition to the voter come election day.

Regardless of how all of the aforementioned socio political strands knit together over the coming months, the fact is that time is running out between now and the General Election, with campaigning likely to hit fever pitch immediately upon resumption of the Dáil in September.

17


Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

In today’s poll, Government satisfaction remains at more or less the same level as has been registered over the last 12 months – currently on 29%.

While two-thirds of the electorate is still actively dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country, the Government will take some comfort from the fact that its satisfaction peaks amongst the over 55s, as well as amongst the white collar ABC1 and farming demographic groupings – i.e. all of those sections of the population most likely to turn out and vote on election day.

Government satisfaction remains lukewarm amongst core Labour Party supporters however, with just over half expressing satisfaction with the performance of its own administration. While Labour Party leaders constantly bemoan what they perceive to be the electorate’s ingratitude at Labour’s contribution to the economic recovery, it is a fact that voters have long memories, and will recall the outrageously disingenuous campaign run by Eamon Gilmore et al throughout the 2011 Election campaign.

It would have been clear to Gilmore and his associates during that election campaign that their promises in relation to the economy could not possibly be met under the conditions of the bailout, and the party is likely to be punished for having attempted to dupe the electorate on a series of false commitments.

18



Party leader satisfaction levels remain almost identical to those registered in last month’s poll, whereby Micheál Martin on 42% still leads the field over the rest of the pack, which is bunched closely together at circa 30% satisfaction apiece.

From a Government party perspective, today’s poll witnesses a consolidation of support, with Fine Gael remaining at 24%, and Labour down insignificantly by one percentage point to 8% of popular support. Labour support does peak amongst the crucial family stage 35-54 years cohort at 10%, amongst white collar workers (at 11%), and also in urban areas, where its support today stands at 10%, compared with just 4% in rural areas.

Meanwhile Fine Gael support remains that bit older (reaching 30% support amongst those aged 55 years+) and is a little stronger in rural areas (28%) compared with urban voters (22%).

Fianna Fáil will be disappointed to see its support settle back down to 18%, although this merely matches the level of support it has been garnering throughout the period August 2014 to May 2015. Support for the Soldiers of Destiny is marginally stronger amongst females (20%) than males (17%), and also amongst older 55 years+ voters (23%). Apart from that, its support is however very well spread across all of the socio economic voter groupings, and indeed across the urban/rural divide (albeit peaking in Munster and Connaught/Ulster).

19



Support for Sinn Féin has also dipped, albeit to a statistically insignificant extent. That party’s support now sits on 17%, rising to more significant levels amongst males (20%), 18-34 year olds (28%), blue collar workers (22%), and urban voters (20%).

Perhaps the most interesting finding in this month’s poll is, however, the breaching of the 30% support level by Independent candidates and smaller parties, fuelled no doubt by the various developments referred to in the introductory section of this report.

While candidates falling into this grouping clearly represent a range of political hues and opinions, its 31% support is very evenly distributed across the different socio demographic voter groupings, right around the country.

It has now become clear that it is the size and profile of this Independent/Other party bloc that will dictate the format of our next Government from 2016 onwards, and how this pans out will be the most fascinating aspect of that campaign.

20


Fine Gael Leader preferences

While we are unlikely to see changes in the leadership of any of the main political parties between now and the General Election, that situation may well change depending on the election results.

With this in mind, we have begun to measure voter preferences for alternative party leaders, beginning with the senior coalition partner, Fine Gael.

The question posed here was straightforward – i.e. whether people would prefer to see Simon Coveney, Frances Fitzgerald or Leo Varadkar elected as a new Fine Gael leader, if such an election was to arise.

The results are quite stark. Thus, one-third of all Irish voters, rising to just under half (49%) of Fine Gael supporters, would prefer to see Leo Varadkar as the new Fine Gael leader, over the two named alternative candidates. Preferences for Varadkar spike amongst 35-54 year olds (37%), and those living in the broader Dublin/Leinster area (40% on average).

Voters’ second preference is Simon Coveney, who garners a respectable 17% support. The Cork deputy’s figures are highest amongst males (21%), those aged 55 years+ (24%), and rural based voters (22%). One in eight of all Irish voters then selected Frances Fitzgerald over either Coveney or Varadkar, with her figures highest amongst females, older voters, and in the Dublin region where her support at 19% is almost twice that of Coveney’s.

Tabular Data

J6715 : Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll July Barometer No1 2015

Table 1 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 1

Q1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area

Male Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299

Unweighted Total 940 459 481 245 367 328 416 471 53 259 260 257 164 605 335

Satisfied 959 515 444 248 373 338 498 380 82 357 225 171 206 620 339

29% 32% 27% 24% 31% 34% 37% 22% 39% 39% 26% 19% 34% 32% 26%

Dissatisfied 2,056 991 1,065 691 772 593 779 1,149 127 497 548 664 348 1,218 838

63% 62% 64% 66% 64% 60% 58% 67% 60% 55% 64% 74% 58% 62% 65%

No opinion (DO NOT READ OUT)

247 97 149 114 70 63 67 177 2 51 81 65 49 125 122

8% 6% 9% 11% 6% 6% 5% 10% 1% 6% 10% 7% 8% 6% 9%



Q1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Likelihood Constituency

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others

Don't Know /Would Not Vote

Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote

5 Seats 4 Seats 3 Seats

Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883

Unweighted Total 940 142 175 54 10 143 209 207 816 701 115 57 45 358 336 246

Satisfied 959 110 431 94 15 63 89 157 892 793 99 35 19 427 346 187

29% 23% 73% 55% 39% 13% 12% 21% 32% 33% 27% 17% 11% 35% 30% 21%

Dissatisfied 2,056 339 138 73 23 405 611 467 1,759 1,536 222 151 111 678 759 620

63% 71% 23% 42% 61% 82% 83% 62% 63% 63% 60% 74% 60% 55% 66% 70%


247 30 22 5 - 25 37 128 151 103 48 19 53 128 42 76

8% 6% 4% 3% - 5% 5% 17% 5% 4% 13% 9% 29% 10% 4% 9%



Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Satisfied 912 503 409 221 351 340 462 367 83 304 225 181 202 561 351

28% 31% 25% 21% 29% 34% 34% 21% 39% 34% 26% 20% 34% 29% 27%

Dissatisfied 2,052 993 1,059 678 785 589 803 1,121 128 551 553 617 331 1,222 830

63% 62% 64% 64% 65% 59% 60% 66% 61% 61% 65% 69% 55% 62% 64%


298 107 190 154 78 65 79 218 - 49 76 103 69 180 117

9% 7% 11% 15% 6% 7% 6% 13% - 5% 9% 11% 11% 9% 9%



Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Satisfied 912 92 472 91 7 41 81 129 857 767 90 26 22 384 338 190

28% 19% 80% 52% 19% 8% 11% 17% 31% 32% 24% 12% 12% 31% 30% 21%

Dissatisfied 2,052 368 95 69 31 411 613 466 1,761 1,556 205 151 103 702 744 606

63% 77% 16% 40% 81% 83% 83% 62% 63% 64% 56% 73% 56% 57% 65% 69%


298 19 23 14 - 41 44 157 184 110 74 29 59 146 65 87

9% 4% 4% 8% - 8% 6% 21% 7% 5% 20% 14% 32% 12% 6% 10%



Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing her job as Tanaiste?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Satisfied 1,109 573 536 249 415 445 494 527 88 354 280 233 242 649 460

34% 36% 32% 24% 34% 45% 37% 31% 42% 39% 33% 26% 40% 33% 35%

Dissatisfied 1,892 935 957 684 730 477 754 1,021 116 484 502 598 307 1,152 740

58% 58% 58% 65% 60% 48% 56% 60% 55% 54% 59% 66% 51% 59% 57%


261 95 166 120 69 72 96 158 7 66 72 69 54 162 99

8% 6% 10% 11% 6% 7% 7% 9% 3% 7% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8%



Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing her job as Tanaiste?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Satisfied 1,109 184 376 111 18 67 158 195 1,031 948 84 39 32 500 414 195

34% 39% 64% 64% 46% 14% 21% 26% 37% 39% 23% 19% 18% 41% 36% 22%

Dissatisfied 1,892 277 164 51 19 405 541 434 1,581 1,345 236 143 124 614 677 602

58% 58% 28% 30% 51% 82% 73% 58% 56% 55% 64% 70% 68% 50% 59% 68%


261 18 51 11 1 21 37 121 189 140 50 23 27 119 56 86

8% 4% 9% 6% 3% 4% 5% 16% 7% 6% 13% 11% 15% 10% 5% 10%



Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Satisfied 1,357 709 647 405 445 507 576 690 91 329 341 374 313 763 593

42% 44% 39% 38% 37% 51% 43% 40% 43% 36% 40% 42% 52% 39% 46%

Dissatisfied 1,435 712 723 441 605 389 608 720 107 433 392 387 223 912 523

44% 44% 44% 42% 50% 39% 45% 42% 51% 48% 46% 43% 37% 46% 40%


470 181 288 208 164 98 161 295 13 143 121 139 67 287 183

14% 11% 17% 20% 13% 10% 12% 17% 6% 16% 14% 15% 11% 15% 14%



Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Satisfied 1,357 363 268 73 13 149 252 238 1,240 1,091 150 67 49 554 530 273

42% 76% 45% 42% 34% 30% 34% 32% 44% 45% 40% 33% 27% 45% 46% 31%

Dissatisfied 1,435 97 238 74 22 290 387 330 1,207 1,049 158 93 91 518 471 446

44% 20% 40% 43% 56% 59% 52% 44% 43% 43% 43% 45% 50% 42% 41% 51%


470 19 84 26 4 55 98 183 354 293 61 45 43 160 146 163

14% 4% 14% 15% 10% 11% 13% 24% 13% 12% 17% 22% 24% 13% 13% 19%



Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Satisfied 1,031 567 464 356 436 238 395 596 40 298 289 240 204 687 344

32% 35% 28% 34% 36% 24% 29% 35% 19% 33% 34% 27% 34% 35% 26%

Dissatisfied 1,746 868 878 481 632 633 771 809 166 498 425 510 314 976 771

54% 54% 53% 46% 52% 64% 57% 47% 78% 55% 50% 57% 52% 50% 59%


484 168 316 215 146 123 178 301 6 108 140 151 86 300 184

15% 10% 19% 20% 12% 12% 13% 18% 3% 12% 16% 17% 14% 15% 14%



Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Satisfied 1,031 155 117 63 14 407 169 107 937 802 135 42 51 396 407 229

32% 32% 20% 36% 36% 83% 23% 14% 33% 33% 37% 21% 28% 32% 35% 26%

Dissatisfied 1,746 248 372 83 21 60 467 494 1,499 1,345 154 116 86 644 587 515

54% 52% 63% 48% 54% 12% 63% 66% 54% 55% 42% 56% 47% 52% 51% 58%


484 76 101 27 4 26 101 149 366 285 81 47 46 192 153 139

15% 16% 17% 16% 10% 5% 14% 20% 13% 12% 22% 23% 25% 16% 13% 16%



Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Satisfied 950 497 453 275 318 357 448 430 71 369 221 212 148 542 408

29% 31% 27% 26% 26% 36% 33% 25% 34% 41% 26% 24% 25% 28% 31%

Dissatisfied 1,031 528 503 295 425 311 391 556 84 222 265 302 241 549 482

32% 33% 30% 28% 35% 31% 29% 33% 40% 25% 31% 34% 40% 28% 37%


1,281 578 703 484 471 327 505 720 56 313 368 386 214 872 409

39% 36% 42% 46% 39% 33% 38% 42% 27% 35% 43% 43% 35% 44% 31%



Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Satisfied 950 179 242 95 35 128 104 166 858 766 91 42 50 422 376 152

29% 37% 41% 55% 91% 26% 14% 22% 31% 32% 25% 21% 27% 34% 33% 17%

Dissatisfied 1,031 124 112 34 - 178 319 262 865 750 114 77 54 376 316 338

32% 26% 19% 20% - 36% 43% 35% 31% 31% 31% 38% 29% 31% 28% 38%


1,281 175 236 43 4 187 314 322 1,079 916 163 85 80 434 454 393

39% 37% 40% 25% 9% 38% 43% 43% 39% 38% 44% 42% 44% 35% 40% 45%



Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Fianna Fail 479 245 234 141 153 185 204 226 48 78 118 170 113 271 208

15% 15% 14% 13% 13% 19% 15% 13% 23% 9% 14% 19% 19% 14% 16%

Fine Gael 590 333 257 136 228 226 268 245 78 177 182 105 126 344 246

18% 21% 15% 13% 19% 23% 20% 14% 37% 20% 21% 12% 21% 18% 19%

Labour Party 173 92 81 46 72 54 103 70 - 82 18 64 10 137 36

5% 6% 5% 4% 6% 5% 8% 4% - 9% 2% 7% 2% 7% 3%

Green Party 38 11 28 12 17 9 20 18 - 28 - 11 - 32 6

1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 3% - 1% - 2% 0%

Sinn Fein 493 294 199 211 214 68 160 317 16 129 122 153 90 343 150

15% 18% 12% 20% 18% 7% 12% 19% 7% 14% 14% 17% 15% 17% 12%

Independent / Other 737 353 384 226 279 232 318 375 43 230 182 186 139 408 329

23% 22% 23% 21% 23% 23% 24% 22% 20% 25% 21% 21% 23% 21% 25%

RENUA 26 9 17 - 9 18 4 22 - 8 9 9 - 17 9

1% 1% 1% - 1% 2% 0% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1%

Don’t know 591 200 391 212 203 175 235 339 17 163 191 140 96 346 245

18% 12% 24% 20% 17% 18% 17% 20% 8% 18% 22% 16% 16% 18% 19%

Would not vote 160 74 86 68 47 45 36 115 9 18 42 72 29 81 79

5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 3% 7% 4% 2% 5% 8% 5% 4% 6%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Fianna Fail 479 479 - - - - - - 451 385 65 13 13 166 192 121

15% 100% - - - - - - 16% 16% 18% 6% 7% 13% 17% 14%

Fine Gael 590 - 590 - - - - - 549 493 56 35 4 287 178 126

18% - 100% - - - - - 20% 20% 15% 17% 2% 23% 16% 14%

Labour Party 173 - - 173 - - - - 163 146 17 11 - 57 79 37

5% - - 100% - - - - 6% 6% 5% 5% - 5% 7% 4%

Green Party 38 - - - 38 - - - 24 21 3 5 9 12 21 5

1% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 1% 2% 1%

Sinn Fein 493 - - - - 493 - - 460 389 71 17 13 161 187 145

15% - - - - 100% - - 16% 16% 19% 9% 7% 13% 16% 16%

Independent / Other 737 - - - - - 737 - 690 628 62 27 - 260 259 217

23% - - - - - 100% - 25% 26% 17% 13% - 21% 23% 25%

RENUA 26 - - - - - 26 - 26 26 - - - 13 13 -

1% - - - - - 4% - 1% 1% - - - 1% 1% -

Don’t know 591 - - - - - - 591 454 360 94 74 26 231 183 177

18% - - - - - - 79% 16% 15% 26% 36% 14% 19% 16% 20%

Would not vote 160 - - - - - - 160 10 10 - 23 119 58 47 55

5% - - - - - - 21% 0% 0% - 11% 65% 5% 4% 6%




Base : All voters excluding undecided

Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 2,511 1,329 1,182 773 963 775 1,073 1,252 185 724 621 688 477 1,536 975


Fianna Fail 479 245 234 141 153 185 204 226 48 78 118 170 113 271 208

19% 18% 20% 18% 16% 24% 19% 18% 26% 11% 19% 25% 24% 18% 21%

Fine Gael 590 333 257 136 228 226 268 245 78 177 182 105 126 344 246

24% 25% 22% 18% 24% 29% 25% 20% 42% 24% 29% 15% 26% 22% 25%

Labour Party 173 92 81 46 72 54 103 70 - 82 18 64 10 137 36

7% 7% 7% 6% 8% 7% 10% 6% - 11% 3% 9% 2% 9% 4%

Green Party 38 11 28 12 17 9 20 18 - 28 - 11 - 32 6

2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% - 4% - 2% - 2% 1%

Sinn Fein 493 294 199 211 214 68 160 317 16 129 122 153 90 343 150

20% 22% 17% 27% 22% 9% 15% 25% 9% 18% 20% 22% 19% 22% 15%

Independent / Other 737 353 384 226 279 232 318 375 43 230 182 186 139 408 329

29% 27% 32% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 23% 32% 29% 27% 29% 27% 34%

RENUA 26 9 17 - 9 18 4 22 - 8 9 9 - 17 9

1% 1% 1% - 1% 2% 0% 2% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1%

Don’t know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -




Base : All voters excluding undecided

Total Party Support Likelihood Constituency

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 2,511 479 590 173 38 493 737 - 2,337 2,062 275 108 38 943 917 651

Unweighted Total 733 142 175 54 10 143 209 - 688 601 87 30 8 277 270 186

Fianna Fail 479 479 - - - - - - 451 385 65 13 13 166 192 121

19% 100% - - - - - - 19% 19% 24% 12% 34% 18% 21% 19%

Fine Gael 590 - 590 - - - - - 549 493 56 35 4 287 178 126

24% - 100% - - - - - 23% 24% 20% 32% 9% 30% 19% 19%

Labour Party 173 - - 173 - - - - 163 146 17 11 - 57 79 37

7% - - 100% - - - - 7% 7% 6% 10% - 6% 9% 6%

Green Party 38 - - - 38 - - - 24 21 3 5 9 12 21 5

2% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% 1% 5% 24% 1% 2% 1%

Sinn Fein 493 - - - - 493 - - 460 389 71 17 13 161 187 145

20% - - - - 100% - - 20% 19% 26% 16% 33% 17% 20% 22%

Independent / Other 737 - - - - - 737 - 690 628 62 27 - 260 259 217

29% - - - - - 100% - 30% 30% 23% 25% - 28% 28% 33%

RENUA 26 - - - - - 26 - 26 26 - - - 13 13 -

1% - - - - - 4% - 1% 1% - - - 1% 1% -

Don’t know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Would not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Adjusted Party Support : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

Base : All voters excluding undecided : Will definitely vote



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 2,000 1,051 949 554 777 669 899 970 131 606 501 552 341 1,248 752


Fianna Fail 368 178 190 83 128 157 163 180 25 60 97 135 77 219 149

18% 17% 20% 15% 17% 23% 18% 19% 19% 10% 19% 24% 23% 18% 20%

Fine Gael 486 261 225 96 190 199 227 197 62 130 159 90 107 277 209

24% 25% 24% 17% 24% 30% 25% 20% 48% 21% 32% 16% 31% 22% 28%

Labour Party 155 96 59 34 76 46 95 61 - 77 12 60 7 128 27

8% 9% 6% 6% 10% 7% 11% 6% - 13% 2% 11% 2% 10% 4%

Green Party 22 6 16 3 10 9 18 4 - 16 - 6 - 20 2

1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% - 3% - 1% - 2% 0%

Sinn Fein 347 213 134 156 143 48 121 217 9 112 80 114 41 245 102

17% 20% 14% 28% 18% 7% 13% 22% 7% 18% 16% 21% 12% 20% 14%

Independent / Others 622 296 326 183 230 210 276 312 34 211 154 148 109 359 263

31% 28% 34% 33% 30% 31% 31% 32% 26% 35% 31% 27% 32% 29% 35%



Adjusted Party Support : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

Base : All voters excluding undecided : Will definitely vote


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 2,000 368 486 155 22 347 622 - 2,000 2,000 - - - 701 786 513

Unweighted Total 601 115 145 46 7 111 177 - 601 601 - - - 217 235 149

Fianna Fail 368 368 - - - - - - 368 368 - - - 132 152 84

18% 100% - - - - - - 18% 18% - - - 19% 19% 16%

Fine Gael 486 - 486 - - - - - 486 486 - - - 215 160 111

24% - 100% - - - - - 24% 24% - - - 31% 20% 22%

Labour Party 155 - - 155 - - - - 155 155 - - - 47 77 32

8% - - 100% - - - - 8% 8% - - - 7% 10% 6%

Green Party 22 - - - 22 - - - 22 22 - - - - 22 -

1% - - - 100% - - - 1% 1% - - - - 3% -

Sinn Fein 347 - - - - 347 - - 347 347 - - - 97 148 102

17% - - - - 100% - - 17% 17% - - - 14% 19% 20%

Independent / Others 622 - - - - - 622 - 622 622 - - - 210 227 185

31% - - - - - 100% - 31% 31% - - - 30% 29% 36%



Q11 If Fine Gael was to elect a new leader, would you prefer to see Simon Coveney, Frances Fitzgerald, or Leo Varadkar as the new Fine Gael leader?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Simon Coveney 553 333 221 134 185 234 241 272 41 94 128 213 118 262 291

17% 21% 13% 13% 15% 24% 18% 16% 19% 10% 15% 24% 20% 13% 22%

Frances Fitzgerald 384 162 222 94 136 154 147 211 25 175 86 64 59 277 107

12% 10% 13% 9% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12% 19% 10% 7% 10% 14% 8%

Leo Varadkar 1,104 528 576 337 452 314 550 467 86 353 346 229 175 663 440

34% 33% 35% 32% 37% 32% 41% 27% 41% 39% 41% 25% 29% 34% 34%

None of these 479 284 195 153 183 143 210 243 26 121 115 146 96 315 164

15% 18% 12% 14% 15% 14% 16% 14% 12% 13% 13% 16% 16% 16% 13%

Don’t know 742 296 446 335 257 150 196 512 34 161 178 248 155 446 296

23% 18% 27% 32% 21% 15% 15% 30% 16% 18% 21% 28% 26% 23% 23%



Q11 If Fine Gael was to elect a new leader, would you prefer to see Simon Coveney, Frances Fitzgerald, or Leo Varadkar as the new Fine Gael leader?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Simon Coveney 553 125 93 46 14 52 132 92 533 474 58 8 9 264 125 165

17% 26% 16% 26% 37% 11% 18% 12% 19% 20% 16% 4% 5% 21% 11% 19%

Frances Fitzgerald 384 33 84 11 13 54 97 91 365 318 47 9 10 106 211 66

12% 7% 14% 7% 34% 11% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 4% 5% 9% 18% 7%

Leo Varadkar 1,104 187 291 57 6 147 241 175 1,009 921 88 46 47 415 423 267

34% 39% 49% 33% 16% 30% 33% 23% 36% 38% 24% 22% 25% 34% 37% 30%

None of these 479 51 44 27 5 130 124 99 401 335 67 33 39 160 153 165

15% 11% 7% 15% 13% 26% 17% 13% 14% 14% 18% 16% 22% 13% 13% 19%

Don’t know 742 84 78 32 - 111 143 294 493 385 108 110 78 287 235 220

23% 18% 13% 19% - 22% 19% 39% 18% 16% 29% 54% 43% 23% 20% 25%



Q12 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Would definitely vote 2,432 1,219 1,213 684 930 818 1,093 1,196 143 730 625 668 409 1,484 949

75% 76% 73% 65% 77% 82% 81% 70% 68% 81% 73% 74% 68% 76% 73%

Would probably vote 369 181 188 165 146 58 140 193 36 84 108 71 107 209 160

11% 11% 11% 16% 12% 6% 10% 11% 17% 9% 13% 8% 18% 11% 12%

Might/might not vote 205 97 108 87 62 56 39 144 22 47 65 53 40 134 71

6% 6% 7% 8% 5% 6% 3% 8% 11% 5% 8% 6% 7% 7% 5%

Would probably not vote 63 20 44 23 19 21 11 47 5 16 15 30 2 36 28

2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 0% 2% 2%

Would definitely not vote 120 59 61 53 39 28 37 78 4 12 23 61 24 61 59

4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 5% 2% 1% 3% 7% 4% 3% 5%

Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)

71 27 44 41 18 12 23 48 1 16 17 17 21 40 31

2% 2% 3% 4% 1% 1% 2% 3% 0% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2%

- ANY Would Vote 2,802 1,400 1,401 849 1,076 877 1,233 1,389 179 813 733 739 516 1,692 1,109

86% 87% 84% 81% 89% 88% 92% 81% 85% 90% 86% 82% 86% 86% 85%

- ANY Would Not 184 79 105 76 58 49 49 126 9 28 39 91 26 97 87

6% 5% 6% 7% 5% 5% 4% 7% 4% 3% 5% 10% 4% 5% 7%

Mean 4.55 4.57 4.52 4.39 4.59 4.65 4.70 4.44 4.46 4.69 4.55 4.42 4.50 4.57 4.51

Standard deviation 0.97 0.94 1.00 1.08 0.91 0.90 0.81 1.08 0.92 0.77 0.92 1.18 0.95 0.94 1.03

Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5



Q12 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Would definitely vote 2,432 385 493 146 21 389 628 370 2,432 2,432 - - - 874 937 621

75% 80% 83% 84% 55% 79% 85% 49% 87% 100% - - - 71% 82% 70%

Would probably vote 369 65 56 17 3 71 62 94 369 - 369 - - 174 80 115

11% 14% 9% 10% 8% 14% 8% 13% 13% - 100% - - 14% 7% 13%

Might/might not vote 205 13 35 11 5 17 27 98 - - - 205 - 71 58 76

6% 3% 6% 6% 13% 4% 4% 13% - - - 100% - 6% 5% 9%

Would probably not vote 63 3 4 - 9 5 - 43 - - - - 63 21 30 13

2% 1% 1% - 24% 1% - 6% - - - - 35% 2% 3% 1%

Would definitely not vote 120 10 - - - 8 - 102 - - - - 120 53 32 35

4% 2% - - - 2% - 14% - - - - 65% 4% 3% 4%


71 2 3 - - 3 20 43 - - - - - 40 9 22

2% 0% 1% - - 1% 3% 6% - - - - - 3% 1% 3%

- ANY Would Vote 2,802 451 549 163 24 460 690 465 2,802 2,432 369 - - 1,048 1,017 736

86% 94% 93% 94% 63% 93% 94% 62% 100% 100% 100% - - 85% 89% 83%

- ANY Would Not 184 13 4 - 9 13 - 145 - - - - 184 73 62 49

6% 3% 1% - 24% 3% - 19% - - - - 100% 6% 5% 5%

Mean 4.55 4.70 4.77 4.78 3.95 4.69 4.84 3.83 4.87 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.35 4.51 4.64 4.48

Standard deviation 0.97 0.75 0.58 0.54 1.27 0.73 0.46 1.48 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 1.00 0.91 1.01

Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 5 5 5



Q13 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299


Fianna Fail 444 228 216 86 140 218 149 250 45 81 109 147 106 240 204

14% 14% 13% 8% 12% 22% 11% 15% 21% 9% 13% 16% 18% 12% 16%

Fine Gael 850 465 385 213 312 325 369 382 99 234 268 191 156 479 371

26% 29% 23% 20% 26% 33% 27% 22% 47% 26% 31% 21% 26% 24% 29%

Labour Party 295 154 140 64 123 108 140 155 - 118 72 95 10 222 73

9% 10% 8% 6% 10% 11% 10% 9% - 13% 8% 11% 2% 11% 6%

Green Party 17 5 13 2 11 4 17 - - 16 - 1 - 16 1

1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% - - 2% - 0% - 1% 0%

Workers Party 12 8 4 12 - - - 12 - - - 12 - 8 4

0% 0% 0% 1% - - - 1% - - - 1% - 0% 0%

Sinn Fein 372 227 145 171 151 49 136 225 11 100 100 80 91 255 117

11% 14% 9% 16% 12% 5% 10% 13% 5% 11% 12% 9% 15% 13% 9%

Socialist Party 4 4 - - - 4 4 - - 4 - - - 4 -

0% 0% - - - 0% 0% - - 0% - - - 0% -

Independent/Other 429 187 242 111 194 124 197 214 18 109 128 110 82 219 210

13% 12% 15% 10% 16% 12% 15% 13% 8% 12% 15% 12% 14% 11% 16%

People Before Profit Alliance 23 9 14 8 13 3 12 11 - 21 2 - - 23 -

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% - 2% 0% - - 1% -

Anti-Austerity Alliance 4 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - - 4 -

0% 0% - - 0% - 0% - - 0% - - - 0% -

Don’t know 393 123 270 124 156 113 148 231 13 81 124 101 86 190 203

12% 8% 16% 12% 13% 11% 11% 14% 6% 9% 15% 11% 14% 10% 16%

Did not vote 419 190 229 262 109 48 167 226 26 137 50 162 71 303 117

13% 12% 14% 25% 9% 5% 12% 13% 12% 15% 6% 18% 12% 15% 9%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883


Fianna Fail 444 329 2 9 4 22 31 46 420 377 43 16 8 168 176 99

14% 69% 0% 5% 11% 4% 4% 6% 15% 15% 12% 8% 5% 14% 15% 11%

Fine Gael 850 36 493 16 11 33 139 123 756 670 86 48 24 403 253 194

26% 7% 83% 9% 30% 7% 19% 16% 27% 28% 23% 23% 13% 33% 22% 22%

Labour Party 295 7 31 100 - 37 80 40 284 258 26 10 2 73 149 72

9% 1% 5% 58% - 7% 11% 5% 10% 11% 7% 5% 1% 6% 13% 8%

Green Party 17 - 3 8 5 - - 2 17 15 2 - - 2 15 -

1% - 0% 5% 12% - - 0% 1% 1% 1% - - 0% 1% -

Workers Party 12 8 - - - - - 4 12 8 4 - - - 8 4

0% 2% - - - - - 1% 0% 0% 1% - - - 1% 0%

Sinn Fein 372 2 - - - 311 51 7 354 298 56 10 8 160 111 100

11% 1% - - - 63% 7% 1% 13% 12% 15% 5% 4% 13% 10% 11%

Socialist Party 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 4 - - - - 4 -

0% - - - - - 0% - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -

Independent/Other 429 13 13 3 4 16 321 58 416 379 37 7 - 147 142 140

13% 3% 2% 2% 10% 3% 44% 8% 15% 16% 10% 3% - 12% 12% 16%

People Before Profit Alliance 23 - - 5 - 8 10 - 23 21 3 - - 2 21 -

1% - - 3% - 2% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - - 0% 2% -

Anti-Austerity Alliance 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 4 - - - - 4 -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -

Don’t know 393 22 22 10 - 16 47 276 292 244 48 50 28 156 95 142

12% 5% 4% 6% - 3% 6% 37% 10% 10% 13% 24% 15% 13% 8% 16%

Did not vote 419 62 27 22 14 50 50 194 220 155 65 66 114 120 169 130

13% 13% 5% 13% 37% 10% 7% 26% 8% 6% 18% 32% 62% 10% 15% 15%




Base : All Voters Excluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 2,472 1,296 1,177 671 963 838 1,033 1,268 172 708 681 637 446 1,493 979


Fianna Fail 444 228 216 86 140 218 149 250 45 81 109 147 106 240 204

18% 18% 18% 13% 15% 26% 14% 20% 26% 11% 16% 23% 24% 16% 21%

Fine Gael 854 465 389 215 314 325 369 387 99 239 268 191 156 484 371

35% 36% 33% 32% 33% 39% 36% 31% 57% 34% 39% 30% 35% 32% 38%

Labour Party 302 159 143 66 127 108 142 159 - 125 72 95 10 229 73

12% 12% 12% 10% 13% 13% 14% 13% - 18% 11% 15% 2% 15% 7%

Green Party 17 5 13 2 11 4 17 - - 16 - 1 - 16 1

1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% - - 2% - 0% - 1% 0%

Workers Party 12 8 4 12 - - - 12 - - - 12 - 8 4

0% 1% 0% 2% - - - 1% - - - 2% - 1% 0%

Sinn Fein 378 227 151 171 157 49 136 231 11 106 100 80 91 261 117

15% 17% 13% 26% 16% 6% 13% 18% 6% 15% 15% 13% 20% 17% 12%

Socialist Party 4 4 - - - 4 4 - - 4 - - - 4 -

0% 0% - - - 0% 0% - - 0% - - - 0% -

Independent/Other 435 188 246 111 196 128 199 218 18 112 129 110 82 225 210

18% 15% 21% 16% 20% 15% 19% 17% 10% 16% 19% 17% 18% 15% 21%

People Before Profit Alliance 23 9 14 8 13 3 12 11 - 21 2 - - 23 -

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% - 3% 0% - - 2% -

Anti-Austerity Alliance 4 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - - 4 -

0% 0% - - 0% - 0% - - 1% - - - 0% -




Base : All Voters Excluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 2,472 395 549 145 24 433 641 285 2,310 2,048 263 92 42 963 897 612


Fianna Fail 444 329 2 9 4 22 31 46 420 377 43 16 8 168 176 99

18% 83% 0% 6% 18% 5% 5% 16% 18% 18% 16% 17% 20% 17% 20% 16%

Fine Gael 854 36 497 16 11 33 139 123 761 670 91 48 24 407 253 194

35% 9% 91% 11% 47% 8% 22% 43% 33% 33% 34% 52% 57% 42% 28% 32%

Labour Party 302 7 34 104 - 37 80 40 288 262 26 12 2 76 154 72

12% 2% 6% 72% - 9% 12% 14% 12% 13% 10% 13% 4% 8% 17% 12%

Green Party 17 - 3 8 5 - - 2 17 15 2 - - 2 15 -

1% - 1% 5% 19% - - 1% 1% 1% 1% - - 0% 2% -

Workers Party 12 8 - - - - - 4 12 8 4 - - - 8 4

0% 2% - - - - - 1% 1% 0% 2% - - - 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 378 2 - - - 317 51 7 360 304 56 10 8 160 117 100

15% 1% - - - 73% 8% 2% 16% 15% 21% 10% 20% 17% 13% 16%

Socialist Party 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 4 - - - - 4 -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -

Independent/Other 435 13 13 3 4 16 323 62 421 383 38 7 - 147 146 142

18% 3% 2% 2% 16% 4% 50% 22% 18% 19% 15% 7% - 15% 16% 23%

People Before Profit Alliance 23 - - 5 - 8 10 - 23 21 3 - - 2 21 -

1% - - 3% - 2% 2% - 1% 1% 1% - - 0% 2% -

Anti-Austerity Alliance 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 4 - - - - 4 -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -



Q14 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,166 1,275 998 1,410 1,815 215 986 894 936 624 2,104 1,336


Yes, eligible 3,261 1,603 1,658 1,053 1,214 994 1,344 1,706 211 905 854 900 603 1,963 1,299

95% 95% 95% 90% 95% 100% 95% 94% 98% 92% 96% 96% 97% 93% 97%

No – not eligible 157 75 82 97 56 4 60 97 - 71 29 36 21 130 26

5% 4% 5% 8% 4% 0% 4% 5% - 7% 3% 4% 3% 6% 2%


22 8 14 16 6 - 6 12 4 10 11 - - 10 11

1% 0% 1% 1% 0% - 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% - - 0% 1%



Q14 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Party Support Likelihood Constituency

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Others


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted Total 3,440 479 597 177 38 503 766 879 2,826 2,451 375 208 283 1,305 1,195 940


Yes, eligible 3,261 479 590 173 38 493 737 751 2,802 2,432 369 205 184 1,232 1,147 883

95% 100% 99% 98% 100% 98% 96% 85% 99% 99% 98% 99% 65% 94% 96% 94%

No – not eligible 157 - 0 4 - 9 30 113 20 19 2 0 100 55 48 54

5% - 0% 2% - 2% 4% 13% 1% 1% 0% 0% 35% 4% 4% 6%


22 - 7 - - - - 15 5 - 5 2 - 18 - 4

1% - 1% - - - - 2% 0% - 1% 1% - 1% - 0%

1

The Questionnaire

BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES JULY POLL QUESTIONNAIRE

Good Morning/afternoon/evening my name is ………………… (Name) and I am calling from

Behaviour and Attitudes, the independent market research company based in Dublin.

We are currently conducting a study on a number of issues. The study will take less than

10 minutes to complete.

The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - all

results will be shown in aggregate form only.

ASK ALL ADULTS 18YRS+

Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the

Government is running the country?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his

job as Taoiseach?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing her

job as Tanaiste?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his

job as leader of Fianna Fail?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

J.6715

Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his

job as leader of Sinn Fein?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job

as leader of The Green Party?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate

would you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Socialist Party 7

Independent 8

People Before profit Alliance 9

Anti-Austerity Alliance 10

RENUA 11

Other specify _________________ 12

Don’t know 13

Would not vote 14

Q.11 If Fine Gael was to elect a new leader, would you prefer to see Simon Coveney,

Frances Fitzgerald, or Leo Varadkar as the new Fine Gael leader?

Simon Coveney 1

Frances Fitzgerald 2

Leo Varadkar 3

None of these 4

Don’t know 5

Q.12 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBE

TO APPROPRIATE CODE

Would definitely vote 1

Would probably vote 2

Might/might not vote 3

Would probably not vote 4

Would definitely not vote 5

Don’t know 6

Q.13 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote

in the last General Election? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Socialist Party 7

Independent 8

People Before Profit Alliance 9

Anti-Austerity Alliance 10

Other specify _________________ 11

Don’t know 12

Did not vote 13

Q.14 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Yes, eligible 1

No – not eligible 2

Don’t know 3

Q.15 And are you an Irish citizen, or not?

Yes 1

No 2

Don’t know 3

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