ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: GUNS, BUTTER AND POLITICS – 9/13/03 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 9 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 14, 2003

Doubts Drag Bush Back Down to Earth

After two years in the political stratosphere, doubts about Iraq and disappointments on the economy are dragging George W. Bush back to Earth. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds significant trouble for the president on domestic issues and the war alike. Disapproval of his work on the economy, jobs, the deficit and health care has spiked to career highs. His request to spend an additional $87 billion on Iraq is unpopular, concern about getting bogged down there has jumped and most say the administration doesn’t have a clear plan to deal with it. Bush’s overall job approval rating, at 58 percent, is high but no longer sky-high. His lead over his potential Democratic rivals is still large, but less so than it was last spring. And when he’s matched against an unnamed Democrat, independents – the classic swing voter group – divide about evenly, after favoring Bush by 14 points five months ago.

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ABC News/Washington Post polls

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While it’s far from a perfect storm, Bush clearly is feeling the weather. His ratings on dealing with terrorism – the wellspring of his support since 9/11 – are still quite high, as

are his ratings for leadership. But by a 24-point margin, 61-37 percent, Americans now say the economy is a bigger problem than terrorism, and there he has trouble. ECONOMY – In terms of perceptions, 52 percent think most Americans are worse off financially now than they were when Bush took office; just nine percent think most people are better off. And six in 10 think large corporations have too much influence in his administration, while as many think people like them have too little influence.

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Financial Situation of Most Americans Since Bush Became President

ABC News/Washington Post poll

Personal experience is problematic for Bush as well. Three in 10 Americans say they themselves are worse off financially under this president – a level unseen since his father’s one-term presidency. More than four in 10 have lost a job, or had a close friend or family member lose one, in the last year. And nearly half are worried about layoffs in their household in the next year, including a quarter who are “very worried.” Overall, 70 percent say the economy is in bad shape, up dramatically from 29 percent when Bush took office; and while 28 percent think it’s improving, 31 percent say it’s getting worse. While expectations were more negative earlier this year, Bush’s approval rating for handling the economy is its lowest since he took office – 42 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove. APPROVAL – Economic concerns aren’t Bush’s only problem. Fifty-seven percent disapprove of his handling of the federal budget, another career worst. His disapproval on handling health insurance issues is 61 percent, highest of any issue and also the most of his presidency. On prescription drug benefits, 54 percent disapprove.

Internationally, disapproval of Bush’s work on the Israel/Palestinian situation has risen by 10 points since spring. Fifty-three percent approve of his work on international affairs; it was as high as 71 percent a year and a half ago. And on taxes it’s 48 percent approval, hardly a rousing endorsement of the Bush tax cuts. Bush rating: Approve Disapprove Overall job 58% 40 The US campaign against terrorism 70 27 Homeland security 63 32 Military spending 60 39 Education 56 39 International affairs 53 43 The situation in Iraq 52 46 The environment 51 42 Gun control 51 34 Taxes 48 48 Israel/Palestine 46 43 Campaign finance reform 44 41 Social Security 43 46 The abortion issue 43 40 The economy 42 56 Creating jobs 39 55 The federal budget 38 57 Rx drug benefits 35 54 Health insurance 32 61

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Job Approval: George W. Bush, 2001-PresentABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

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Bush’s approval ratings are better, and more stable, on several other issues. On education, 56 percent approve; on homeland security, 63 percent; on handling the war on terrorism, 70 percent. His overall job approval rating, at 58 percent, is two points away from its lowest since Sept. 11, 2001. IRAQ – Bush has 52 percent approval for handling the situation in Iraq, about the same as his 49 percent in an ABC News poll last week – and down from 75 percent April 30, as he was about to declare the main fighting over. Sixty-one percent say the war was worth fighting, up from 54 percent Sept. 7 – possibly a result of the past week’s 9/11 commemorations (especially since two-thirds see the war in Iraq as part of the war on terrorism). And, overall, 71 percent continue to support the current U.S. military presence in Iraq. Nonetheless, 61 percent oppose Bush’s proposal for spending an additional $87 billion on Iraq – opposition that spikes among people who disapprove of his handling of the federal budget. And if Congress does appropriate the $87 billion, a plurality, 41 percent, says it should be financed by eliminating Bush’s prized tax cuts. Among other options, 28 percent would cut other spending, and 19 percent would add to the deficit. Doubt about the Iraq money is linked to broader concern about the federal budget. Among people who approve of Bush’s handling of the budget, 66 percent support the $87 billion appropriation. But among those who disapprove of his budget work, 77 percent oppose the expense. Concerns about Iraq are about more than money. For the first time, a majority of Americans, 53 percent, are “very” concerned the U.S. will get bogged down in a long and costly peacekeeping mission there, up 12 points since last month. (Total concern encompasses 85 percent.) And 55 percent don’t think the administration has a clear plan for dealing with the situation. A majority, 55 percent, continues to term the level of casualties as “unacceptable.” Yet a sense of obligation remains: About two-thirds say U.S. forces should stay until civil order is restored, even if casualties continue. IRAQ/GROUPS – Enormous partisanship in views on Iraq continues. Eighty-five percent of Republicans approve of the way Bush is handling it; just 26 percent of Democrats agree. Nine in 10 Republicans support the current U.S. military presence there; 54 percent of Democrats agree. Just four in 10 Democrats say the war was worth fighting. And three-quarters of Democrats (compared to about one-third of Republicans) call the current level of casualties unacceptable. Women and blacks (both more apt to be Democrats) are also more skeptical about the war with Iraq. Most women and blacks disapprove of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq, while most men and whites approve. Nearly half of men but only 29 percent of

women support spending an additional $87 billion there. And while men are evenly split on the level of casualties, just 38 percent of women say it’s acceptable, six in 10 not. Only 19 percent of blacks say the level of casualties is acceptable, compared with 46 percent of whites. Indeed just 32 percent of blacks say the war was worth fighting, while two-thirds of whites say so. ELECTION ISSUES – The top issue in vote choices in the 2004 election does not do much for Bush: It’s the economy (or, “creating jobs”). At the next tier are education, homeland security and terrorism, which work for Bush, and the federal budget and health insurance, which don’t. The primacy of these issues as the campaign heats up should be critical to the election’s outcome. And there’s plenty of room for movement – fewer than 18 percent cite any of these issues as among the “one of the single most important” in their vote. Single most or very important issue in '04 vote The economy 85% Creating jobs 85 Education 78 The federal budget 77 War on terrorism 75 Homeland security 74 Health insurance 74 The situation in Iraq 71 Taxes 67 Social Security 67 Rx drug benefits 63 International affairs 60 Military spending 59 The environment 49 Abortion 42 Gun control 41 Israel/Palestine 40 Campaign finance reform 25 Bush’s personal attributes help fill out the picture. He’s best-rated as a strong leader (66 percent); at least six in 10 say he’s honest, has a vision for the future and, crucially in the post 9/11 era, has made the country safer; and 55 percent think he “understands complex issues.” But just under half think he understands the problems of average Americans or has “brought needed change to Washington.” VOTE PREFERENCES – When Bush is matched against an unnamed Democratic opponent, 49 percent of Americans say they’d support him for re-election, 44 percent, the

Democrat – and among registered voters, it’s 48-45 percent. These compare to a 53-40 percent race in this match-up in late April, when Bush was riding high on the quick fall of Baghdad. The biggest change has occurred among independents: In April they favored Bush against the “generic Democrat” by 54-35 percent. Today it’s 43 percent for Bush, 46 percent for the Democrat. (The economy is one key reason. Fifty-nine percent of independents disapprove of the way Bush has handled it.) While pitting Bush against a generic Democrat isn’t a perfect test – voters can imagine an ideal nominee – it does underline his vulnerabilities. Among his weakest constituencies are people with the greatest concern about both the economy and the war. Those who say the economy’s in poor shape would vote for the Democratic candidate over Bush, 74-18 percent. People who aren’t as well off as when Bush took office favor the Democrat by a similar margin, while eight in 10 of those who’re better off take Bush. Six in 10 of those who oppose Bush’s plan to spend an additional $87 billion on Iraq would vote against him if the election were today, as would about eight in 10 of those who say the war in Iraq wasn’t worth fighting. This poll shows a gender gap and a racial divide as well. Men divide 53-40 percent in Bush’s favor, but it’s 44-48 percent among women. Fifty-six percent of whites favor Bush, while 85 percent of blacks choose the Democrat. REAL MEN – But the generic Democrat is a fantasy candidate; the real nominee will be flesh and blood. And the leading Democratic contenders do less well against Bush, trailing him head-to-head by an average of 16 points, 55-39 percent. It was an average 26 points in April. 9/13 Gap 4/30 Gap Bush vs generic Dem 49-44% 5 53-40 13 Bush vs Lieberman 54-40 14 61-34 27 Bush vs Gephardt 54-39 15 60-35 25 Bush vs Kerry 54-39 15 60-34 26 Bush vs Dean 56-36 20 NA Bush vs average 55-39 16 60-34 26 Looking again only at independents, Bush leads by 52-38 percent against Howard Dean, 51-39 percent against Richard Gephardt, 49-41 percent against John Kerry and 48-42 percent against Joseph Lieberman. DEMS – The nearly identical numbers for the individual Democrats vs. Bush indicate that most voters haven’t done much differentiating among them. And indeed just 18 percent of Americans say they’re following the campaign “very closely,” about what you’d expect this long from Election Day, and far below its likely level later in the race.

For the Democratic nomination, Lieberman has 22 percent support in this poll among Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, after a dip this summer. Gephardt, Kerry and Dean have 14 percent support each, with the rest in single digits. It’s almost identical among registered voters – but among likely voters, the race bunches up into essentially a four-way dead heat: Dean 20 percent, Lieberman 19, Kerry 19, Gephardt 15. Among Leaned Democrats All Reg. Likely Lieberman 22% 21% 19% Dean 14 15 20 Kerry 14 14 19 Gephardt 14 14 15 All others, single digits There’s one notable difference between this poll and others: Just 12 percent of leaned Democrats in this poll have no preference, and it falls to fewer than one percent of likely voters (logical given the question – “if the election were being held today”) – compared to an average of more than 20 percent in other recent polls. Two-thirds of leaned Democrats say they are satisfied with the choice of candidates. But far fewer – nine percent – are “very” satisfied, meaning there’s plenty of room to move. METHDOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 10-13, 2003, among a random national sample of 1,104 adults, including an oversample of blacks (for a total of 169). The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/PollVault/PollVault.html. Media contacts: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-6190. Results follow: *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 9/13/03 58 35 23 40 27 14 2 9/7/03 56 34 22 41 28 13 4 8/11/03* 59 37 22 37 23 14 4 7/10/03 59 35 24 38 25 13 3 6/22/03 68 45 23 29 18 11 4

4/30/03 71 50 22 26 9 17 3 4/16/03 74 52 22 23 14 9 3 4/9/03 77 58 19 20 14 6 4 4/3/03 71 54 16 25 19 7 4 3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/03 62 38 23 35 22 13 4 2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/03 64 42 21 34 20 14 3 2/1/03 62 41 21 34 22 13 4 1/28/03 62 43 19 36 23 13 2 1/27/03 59 39 21 37 22 15 4 1/20/03 59 36 23 38 22 16 2 12/15/02 66 37 28 32 20 12 2 11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 20 12 1 11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 20 12 1 11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 23 9 1 10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 16 13 4 10/27/02 LV 68 47 21 30 16 14 3 9/26/02 67 42 25 30 18 12 3 9/8/02 71 42 28 27 15 12 3 7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3 7/15/02 72 42 31 25 13 12 2 6/17/02 74 42 32 22 13 9 4 6/9/02 77 41 36 20 11 9 3 5/19/02 76 48 28 22 13 8 3 4/21/02 78 47 31 20 10 9 2 3/28/02 79 49 30 18 10 8 3 3/10/02 82 52 30 16 7 9 2 1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3 12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2 11/27/01 89 69 21 9 5 4 1 11/6/01 89 65 24 9 4 5 2 10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1 9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4 9/13/01 86 63 23 12 6 5 2 9/9/01 55 26 29 41 22 20 3 8/12/01 61 28 33 31 17 14 8 7/30/01 59 28 30 38 22 17 3 6/3/01 55 27 28 40 22 18 6 4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5 3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 *Washington Post 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)? 9/13/03 - Summary Table* Approve Disapprove No op. a. The economy 42 56 3 b. The situation in Iraq 52 46 2 c. Education 56 39 6 d. Social Security 43 46 11 e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly 35 54 11 f. The environment 51 42 7 g. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance 32 61 7 h. Homeland security 63 32 4 i. Taxes 48 48 4 j. The federal budget 38 57 4

k. The situation between Israel and the Palestinians 46 43 11 l. The US campaign against terrorism 70 27 3 m. Creating jobs 39 55 6 n. International affairs 53 43 4 o. Military spending 60 39 2 p. Gun control 51 34 15 q. The abortion issue 43 40 18 r. Campaign finance reform 44 41 15 *Half sample asked items a-i, other half asked j-r. Trend where available: a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 42 56 3 9/7/03 44 51 5 8/11/03* 45 51 5 7/10/03 47 49 4 4/30/03 52 45 3 2/9/03 47 49 4 2/1/03 44 52 4 1/28/03 46 49 4 1/27/03 47 47 5 1/20/03 43 53 4 1/5/03 50 43 7 12/15/02 50 46 4 11/4/02 LV 53 45 2 11/3/02 LV 52 46 2 11/2/02 LV 55 43 2 10/27/02 51 43 6 10/27/02 LV 53 44 3 9/26/02 51 47 3 9/8/02 57 40 4 7/28/02 57 39 4 7/15/02 58 38 3 4/21/02 64 33 3 1/27/02 62 34 4 12/19/01 67 27 6 11/6/01 72 23 5 9/9/01 48 48 4 7/30/01 52 45 3 6/3/01 53 41 6 4/22/01 55 38 7 3/25/01 50 42 8 *Washington Post b. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 52 46 2 9/7/03 49 47 4 8/24/03 56 37 7 8/11/03* 56 41 3 7/10/03 58 41 2 6/22/03 67 30 2 4/30/03 75 22 2 *Washington Post Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein

3/27/03 69 26 5 3/23/03 71 26 3 3/20/03 65 29 5 3/17/03 64 29 7 3/9/03 55 38 8 2/23/03 55 39 6 2/9/03 61 37 2 2/5/03 61 32 7 2/1/03 61 35 3 1/28/03 58 38 4 1/27/03 57 40 3 1/20/03 50 46 4 12/15/02 58 37 5 11/4/02 LV 56 40 4 11/3/02 LV 57 40 4 11/2/02 LV 56 41 3 10/27/02 57 38 5 9/26/02 58 39 3 9/14/02 65 31 4 8/29/02 52 36 12 c. Education Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 56 39 6 4/30/03 59 34 7 12/15/02 62 30 8 9/26/02 61 32 7 7/15/02 62 31 6 1/27/02 71 21 8 9/9/01 61 32 7 7/30/01 63 31 5 6/3/01 57 35 8 4/22/01 60 28 12 d. Social Security Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 43 46 11 4/30/03 49 38 13 12/15/02 49 38 13 9/26/02 42 43 15 7/15/02 54 35 11 1/27/02 54 28 18 9/9/01 41 50 9 7/30/01 46 48 6 6/3/01 46 40 14 e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 35 54 11 4/30/03 44 40 17 2/1/03 46 35 19 f. The environment Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 51 42 7

4/30/03 49 40 11 12/15/02 50 40 10 9/26/02* 49 40 11 7/15/02 52 39 9 1/27/02 54 31 15 9/9/01 50 44 6 7/30/01 45 49 6 6/3/01 41 50 9 4/22/01 47 41 12 3/25/01 46 41 13 *9/26/02 and previous: “environmental issues.” g. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 32 61 7 4/30/03 34 57 9 1/28/03 40 47 13 1/20/03 36 51 13 12/15/02 33 58 9 h. Homeland security Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 63 32 4 4/30/03 74 23 3 12/15/02 67 27 5 i. Taxes Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 48 48 4 8/11/03* 49 46 5 4/30/03 50 46 4 2/1/03 51 43 7 1/20/03 50 45 5 12/15/02 51 44 5 *Washington Post j. The federal budget Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 38 57 4 8/11/03* 41 50 9 4/30/03 43 50 6 2/9/03 45 45 10 2/1/03 47 46 8 1/20/03 43 47 10 7/15/02 50 42 8 1/27/02 59 30 12 9/9/01 46 48 6 7/30/01 53 42 5 *Washington Post k. The situation between Israel and the Palestinians Approve Disapprove No opinion

9/13/03 46 43 11 4/30/03 54 33 12 7/15/02 59 34 7 4/21/02 57 35 8 l. The US campaign against terrorism ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 9/13/03 70 NA NA 27 NA NA 3 9/7/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 4/30/03 79 NA NA 19 NA NA 2 2/9/03 74 NA NA 23 NA NA 4 2/1/03 75 NA NA 21 NA NA 3 1/27/03 72 NA NA 26 NA NA 2 1/20/03 71 NA NA 25 NA NA 4 12/15/02 79 NA NA 20 NA NA 1 11/4/02 LV 76 NA NA 22 NA NA 1 11/3/02 LV 77 NA NA 22 NA NA 3 11/2/02 LV 78 NA NA 21 NA NA 2 10/27/02 All 74 NA NA 23 NA NA 4 10/27/02 LV 78 NA NA 20 NA NA 2 9/26/02 70 NA NA 28 NA NA 2 9/8/02 74 NA NA 24 NA NA 2 7/28/02 81 NA NA 17 NA NA 2 7/15/02 83 NA NA 15 NA NA 2 5/19/02 79 51 27 19 10 9 3 4/21/02 81 56 25 18 10 7 2 3/10/02 88 64 24 10 5 5 2 1/27/02 88 NA NA 10 NA NA 2 12/19/01 89 67 22 9 5 4 2 10/15/01 92 75 17 5 3 3 3 m. No trend. n. International affairs Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 53 43 4 7/15/02 67 28 5 4/21/02 71 25 4 6/3/01 58 33 9 4/22/01 62 31 7 3/25/01 56 31 13 o. Military spending Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 60 39 2 9/9/01* 53 34 13 7/30/01 58 34 7 *9/9/01 and previous: “Defense and the military budget” p,q. No trend. r. Campaign finance reform

Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/13/03 44 41 15 7/30/01 43 46 11 3. On another subject, what do you think is a bigger problem facing the nation right now: (terrorism) or (the economy)? Terrorism Economy No opin. 9/13/03 37 61 2 9/7/03 34 63 3 9/26/02 47 51 3 9/8/02 46 51 3 1/27/02 43 54 3 12/16/01 49 47 4 4. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 9/13/03 16 40 27 17 * Compare to: How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. Likely Voters: 11/6/00 54 38 6 2 * 11/5/00 53 38 6 2 * 11/4/00 52 39 7 2 * 11/3/00 51 40 6 3 * 11/2/00 48 42 7 3 * 11/1/00 48 43 7 2 * 10/31/00 46 44 7 2 * 10/30/00 47 44 7 2 * 10/29/00 47 43 7 3 * 10/28/00 47 42 7 3 * 10/27/00 48 41 7 4 * 10/26/00 47 42 8 3 * 10/25/00 47 42 8 3 0 10/24/00 44 43 10 3 0 10/23/00 44 45 8 3 0 10/22/00 44 44 9 3 0 10/21/00 46 41 9 4 * 10/20/00 46 40 11 4 * 10/19/00 44 41 10 4 * 10/18/00 42 45 10 3 * 10/17/00 40 46 10 3 * Registered Voters: 10/15/00 33 44 15 8 * 10/9/00 30 45 16 9 * 10/1/00 27 48 17 8 * 9/6/00 26 48 17 9 * 8/20/00 28 46 16 10 1 8/10/00 29 43 18 11 * General Population: 8/6/00 17 36 22 25 * 7/29/00 16 35 25 24 * 7/23/00 14 36 25 25 *

6/11/00 13 36 26 25 0 4/2/00 17 36 24 23 0 3/11/00 21 40 21 17 0 2/27/00 24 46 20 10 * 2/6/00 19 48 21 13 0 1/16/00 11 39 26 24 * 12/15/99 12 33 31 24 * 10/31/99 16 45 25 13 * 5. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican) or for (the Democratic nominee for president)? Net Leaned Vote: Democratic Other Neither Would No Bush nominee (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 9/13/03 49 44 1 2 2 2 8/11/03* 48 40 2 1 1 7 4/30/03 53 40 * 2 1 3 *Washington Post 6. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Joseph Lieberman, the Democrat,) for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote: Other Neither Would No Bush Lieberman (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 9/13/03 54 40 * 3 2 2 4/30/03 61 34 * 2 1 2 7. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (John Kerry, the Democrat,) for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) not vote opinion 9/13/03 54 39 * 3 2 2 4/30/03 60 34 * 2 1 2 8. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Richard Gephardt, the Democrat,) for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote: Other Neither Would No Bush Gephardt (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 9/13/03 54 39 * 3 2 2 4/30/03 60 35 * 2 1 2 9. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Howard Dean, the Democrat,) for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote: Other Neither Would No Bush Dean (vol.) (vol.) not vote opinion 9/13/03 56 36 1 3 2 2

10. For each item I name, please tell me how important it will be in your vote for president next year. Will it be one of the single most important issues, very important, somewhat important or less important than that? 9/13/03 - Summary Table* ------Important----- -Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. a. The economy 85 15 70 15 14 1 * b. The situation in Iraq 71 14 57 29 22 7 * c. Education 78 12 66 21 19 2 1 d. Social Security 67 9 58 33 29 4 * e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly 63 12 51 36 29 7 1 f. The environment 49 5 44 52 41 11 * g. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance 74 11 63 25 23 2 1 h. Homeland security 74 13 61 26 21 5 * i. Taxes 67 7 60 33 29 4 * j. The federal budget 77 12 65 23 19 4 1 k. The situation between Israel and the Palestinians 40 5 35 59 44 15 1 l. The US campaign against terrorism 75 12 63 25 22 3 * m. Creating jobs 85 18 67 14 12 2 * n. International affairs 60 8 52 40 35 5 * o. Military spending 59 6 53 40 36 4 1 p. Gun control 41 6 35 59 40 19 * q. The abortion issue 42 6 36 57 36 21 2 r. Campaign finance reform 25 3 22 73 51 22 2 11. On another subject, do you support or oppose the current U.S. military presence in Iraq? Do you support/oppose it strongly or somewhat? ---------Support--------- ----------Oppose--------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 9/13/03 71 49 21 27 17 10 2 9/7/03 67 45 22 30 17 13 3 8/11/03* 70 46 24 27 17 10 3 7/10/03 74 48 26 25 15 10 1 *Washington Post 12. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Worth Not worth No fighting fighting opinion 9/13/03 61 37 2 9/7/03 54 42 4 8/24/03 57 37 5 8/11/03* 61 35 4 7/10/03 57 40 3 6/22/03 64 33 3 4/30/03 70 27 4 *Washington Post Gulf War: 2/2/92* 66 32 2

7/28/91 67 30 3 6/2/91 70 26 3 3/4/91 86 13 1 *2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war" 13. Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far in your opinion has there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq? Acceptable Unacceptable No opinion 9/13/03 43 55 2 9/7/03 38 57 5 8/11/03* 42 53 5 7/10/03 44 52 3 6/22/03 51 44 5 4/9/03 66 28 6 4/3/03 62 32 5 3/27/03 58 34 9 *Washington Post 14. Earlier this year, Congress approved spending 79 billion dollars to help pay for the war in Iraq and the rebuilding effort there. Bush has now called for spending 87 billion dollars more. Do you support or oppose this additional spending for the war and rebuilding in Iraq? Support Oppose No opinion 9/13/03 38 61 1 15. If Congress approves this additional 87 billion dollars, how do you think the government should pay for it – by (cutting spending on other programs), (increasing the federal budget deficit) or (eliminating the recent tax cuts)? Cut Inc. Eliminate Some of Make Iraq Get from other No spend. def. tax cuts each (vol.) pay (vol.) countries (vol.) op. 9/13/03 28 19 41 2 2 1 7 16. How do you feel about the possibility that the United States will get bogged down in a long and costly peacekeeping mission in Iraq - would you say you're very concerned about that, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all? ----Concerned----- -----Not concerned---- Already No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all has (vol.) op. 9/13/03 85 53 32 15 9 5 * * 8/24/03 76 41 35 23 13 9 1 1 7/10/03 80 43 37 19 11 8 1 1 6/22/03 72 32 41 26 16 10 * 1 4/30/03 72 34 39 27 19 9 NA * 4/16/03 73 31 42 26 19 7 NA 1 4/9/03 62 24 39 35 24 11 NA 3 17. Do you think (the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties); or do you think (the United States should withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S. military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored there)? Keep forces Withdraw forces No opinion

9/13/03 65 32 3 8/24/03 69 27 4 7/10/03 72 26 2 18. Do you think of the war with Iraq as (part of the war against terrorism), or as (separate from the war against terrorism)? Part Separate No opinion 9/13/03 66 32 2 9/7/03 65 31 4 4/16/03 77 22 1 19. Do you think the Bush Administration does--or does not--have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq? Does Does not No opinion 9/13/03 42 55 2 8/26/03* 44 54 2 *Gallup. 20. (IF DOES, Q19) How confident are you that the Bush plan will bring stability and end the violence in Iraq: very confident, fairly confident, not too confident, or not confident at all? -------Confident------- -----Not confident------ No NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opin. 9//13/03 86 30 56 13 11 3 1 21. On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good----- -----Not so good/Poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 9/13/03 30 2 27 70 45 25 * 8/11/03* 32 2 30 68 43 25 * 4/30/03 35 1 34 64 46 19 * 2/9/03 28 1 27 72 49 23 * 1/20/03 25 1 25 74 48 26 1 12/15/02 35 1 33 65 44 21 1 11/4/02 LV 28 1 27 72 55 17 1 11/3/02 LV 27 1 26 72 56 17 1 11/2/02 LV 29 1 28 71 54 17 * 9/26/02 31 2 28 69 50 19 * 7/15/02 39 3 36 61 44 17 1 2/21/02 30 1 29 69 51 18 * 1/27/02 31 1 29 69 50 19 * 9/20/01 38 3 35 60 47 14 2 9/9/01 33 1 32 66 47 19 * 7/30/01 50 3 46 50 39 12 * 4/22/01 50 3 47 50 40 9 * 1/15/01 70 10 59 29 24 6 1 Call for full trend. *Washington Post 22. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse or staying the same? Better Worse Same No opin. 9/13/03 28 31 40 *

8/11/03* 32 29 38 1 1/20/03 18 38 43 1 7/28/02 17 44 39 1 7/15/02 20 36 43 2 7/7/02** 22 37 41 0 6/9/02 27 29 43 1 5/12/02 35 27 38 0 4/14/02 34 26 40 0 3/17/02 47 20 32 1 2/17/02 29 27 42 2 1/20/02 25 36 39 1 12/9/01 24 37 38 1 11/11/01 16 48 36 1 10/14/01 15 46 39 0 9/16/01 9 44 46 1 8/12/01 16 46 38 0 7/15/01 13 40 46 0 6/17/01 17 45 38 1 5/20/01 13 47 39 0 Call for full trend *Washington Post 23. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No off well off same opinion 9/13/03 9 52 38 1 4/30/03 10 48 42 1 George H. W. Bush 8/9/92 6 61 31 1 10/21/91 7 48 41 4 3/4/91 7 35 56 2 1/16/89 33 26 38 3 24. Would you say you, yourself are better off financially than you were when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better off Not as well off About the same No opin. 9/13/03 21 30 49 * 8/11/03* 17 25 58 1 CLINTON 6/11/00 34 14 50 2 7/19/98 30 15 52 3 3/1/98 32 9 57 1 6/23/96 29 22 49 0 2/27/94 12 17 71 * BUSH** 8/9/92 22 32 45 1 6/7/92 19 32 49 * 3/11/92 20 33 46 1 2/2/92 19 31 49 * 10/21/91 20 27 53 1 3/4/91 19 18 63 1 REAGAN*** 1/16/89 42 18 39 1

1/18/87 37 23 40 1 9/8/86 41 20 39 1 *Washington Post **"...in 1989 when Bush became..." *** "...in 1981 when Reagan became..." 25. Have you or any of your close friends or family members lost a job in the last year? Yes No No opinion 9/13/03 44 56 * Compare to: Have you or any of your close friends or family members lost a job in the last six months? Yes No No opinion 1/27/02 37 63 * 26. How concerned are you that you or someone else in your household will lose their job in the next year? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not concerned at all? ----Concerned----- -----Not concerned---- No one in HH No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all employed (vol.) op. 9/13/03 49 27 22 49 20 29 2 * 8/12/03* 44 27 17 55 21 34 NA 1 7/27/03** 46 25 21 53 21 32 NA 1 5/12/03** 45 25 20 56 24 32 NA * 4/27/03* 39 20 19 59 22 37 NA 2*** 6/3/96** 48 27 21 51 22 29 NA 1 3/11/96* 49 27 22 49 19 30 NA 2 *CBS **CBS/New York Times ***Includes "Already happened (vol.)" 27. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Bush or not. 9/13/03 - Summary Table* Yes No No opin. a. He understands the problems of people like you 48 51 1 b. He is honest and trustworthy 60 39 2 c. He is a strong leader 66 34 * d. He's got a vision for the future 61 38 1 e. He understands complex issues 55 43 2 f. He has brought needed change to Washington 49 48 4 g. He has made the country safer and more secure 63 35 2 *Half sample answered a-d, other half answered e-g. Trend: a. He understands the problems of people like you Yes No No opin. 9/13/03 48 51 1 4/30/03 51 48 1 12/15/02 51 47 2

7/15/02 57 41 2 1/27/02 61 37 2 7/30/01 45 54 2 4/22/01 47 51 2 11/4/00 LV 49 46 5 10/24/00 LV 50 46 3 10/15/00 RV 46 46 7 10/9/00 RV 50 44 6 9/6/00 RV 47 49 4 8/20/00 RV 50 46 5 7/23/00 RV 44 51 5 7/23/00 44 51 5 6/11/00 48 47 5 4/2/00 48 46 6 3/11/00 47 47 6 2/27/00 43 51 6 2/6/00 43 52 5 1/16/00 46 49 6 12/15/99 47 46 7 10/31/99 54 39 7 9/2/99 50 39 11 3/14/99 52 27 21 b. He is honest and trustworthy Yes No No opin. 9/13/03 60 39 2 12/15/02 70 26 4 7/15/02 71 26 3 7/30/01 63 34 3 4/22/01 62 32 6 11/5/00 LV 60 33 7 11/4/00 LV 61 33 7 10/24/00 LV 65 30 5 10/15/00 LV 57 34 9 10/15/00 RV 53 35 12 9/6/00 RV 62 30 7 7/23/00 RV 61 30 8 7/23/00 59 31 10 12/15/99 63 28 9 10/31/99 68 22 10 9/2/99 63 23 14 3/14/99 67 12 22 c. He is a strong leader Yes No No opin. 9/13/03 66 34 * 4/30/03 74 25 * 12/15/02 75 23 2 7/15/02 75 24 1 7/30/01 55 43 2 4/22/01 53 42 5 10/9/00 RV 62 33 5 9/6/00 RV 65 28 7 8/20/00 RV 65 29 5 8/10/00 RV 67 29 5 7/23/00 RV 61 33 6 7/23/00 62 32 5 6/11/00 65 30 6 4/2/00 68 27 5 3/11/00 63 31 6 2/27/00 62 32 6

2/6/00 65 30 7 1/16/00 65 28 7 12/15/99 67 26 7 10/31/99 77 18 5 9/2/99 70 18 12 3/14/99 68 13 20 d. He's got a vision for the future Yes No No opin. 9/13/03 61 38 1 12/15/02 74 24 3 7/30/01 67 31 2 4/22/01 68 30 2 3/14/99 66 12 21 e. He understands complex issues Yes No No opin. 9/13/03 55 43 2 12/15/02 63 34 3 7/30/01 53 45 2 11/4/00 60 36 4 f. He has brought needed change to Washington Yes No No opin. 9/13/03 49 48 4 12/15/02 53 44 3 7/30/01 50 47 3 9/6/00 RV* 55 41 5 7/23/00 RV 50 46 4 7/23/00 51 44 5 4/2/00 54 39 7 3/11/00 50 43 7 2/27/00 46 50 4 2/6/00 48 46 6 1/16/00 49 43 8 12/15/99 52 40 8 10/31/99 61 32 7 9/2/99 56 32 12 *9/6/00 and previous: "He would bring needed change to Washington" g. He has made the country safer and more secure Yes No No opin. 9/13/03 63 35 2 12/15/02 65 33 2 32. For each group I name, please tell me if you think it has too much influence in the Bush administration, too little influence or about the right amount. 9/13/03 - Summary Table Too Too Right No much little amount opin. a. Large business corporations 62 8 26 4 b. People like you 5 62 32 2 Trend:

a. Large business corporations Too Too Right No much little amount opin. 9/13/03 62 8 26 4 4/30/03 61 8 29 3 12/15/02 60 10 26 4 1/27/02 59 8 29 4 7/30/01 67 7 24 2 b. People like you Too Too Right No much little amount opin. 9/13/03 5 62 32 2 4/30/03 2 59 37 1 12/15/02 3 61 35 2 1/27/02 3 49 46 2 7/30/01 1 67 30 1 28. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) How closely are you following the race for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? ------Closely------- ------Not closely------- No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opin. 9/13/03 63 19 44 37 24 13 0 4/30/03 37 8 29 63 33 30 0 29. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2004 presidential primary or caucus in your state. Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Absolutely Probably Chances Less than No primary/ No certain vote 50-50 50-50 caucus (vol.) opin. 9/13/03 64 15 14 5 1 1 998. (and 999) (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Joseph Lieberman, Richard Gephardt, John Kerry, John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Bob Graham, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, or Wesley Clark), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote: 9/13/03 Gen pop. Reg. Likely Lieberman 22 21 19 Gephardt 14 14 15 Kerry 14 14 19 Edwards 3 3 4 Graham 4 3 4 Dean 14 15 20 Sharpton 5 5 5 Moseley Braun 4 4 4 Kucinich 2 2 3 Clark 6 6 6 Other 1 0 0 None 3 3 0

Wouldn't vote 2 2 0 No opinion 7 8 * Trend, Gen pop: 7/10/03 6/1/03 4/30/03 1/20/03 7/15/02** Lieberman 13 14 29 27 10 Gephardt 10 10 19 14 5 Kerry 12 7 14 10 6 Edwards 6 6 4 11 3 Graham 3 4 3 NA NA Dean 8 3 3 3 1 Sharpton 6 2 3 7 NA Moseley Braun 4 1 6 NA NA Kucinich 2 1 2 NA NA Clark NA NA NA NA NA H.R. Clinton NA 37 NA NA NA Other 2 * 1 1 3 None 13 3 1 4 * Wouldn't vote 7 2 0 0 0 No opinion 16 11 14 24 18 **Gore 46, Daschle 8 30. (ASKED IF NAMED A CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be? 9/13/03 Lieberman 18 Gephardt 17 Kerry 17 Edwards 4 Sharpton 5 Graham 3 Dean 15 Kucinich 1 Moseley Braun 5 Clark 4 Other 1 None 5 Wouldn’t vote 0 DK/No opinion 6 31. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates in the Democratic primary this year - are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? -----Satisfied-------- ----Dissatisfied----- No NET Very Somewhat NET Somewhat Very opin. 9/13/03 64 8 56 34 27 7 2 1/16/00 69 14 56 28 21 7 2 ***END***