summary of wmo 1 st meeting of the caem expert team on new terminal weather forecast

Summary of WMO 1Summary of WMO 1stst Meeting of the CAeM Meeting of the CAeM Expert Team on New Terminal Weather ForExpert Team on New Terminal Weather For

ecastecast

Terms of Reference of Terms of Reference of WMO Expert Team on New Ternminal Forecast WMO Expert Team on New Ternminal Forecast

(ET/NTF)(ET/NTF) The Expert Team on New Terminal Weather Forecast was

established by WMO following the adoption of Resolution 3 (CAeM-XIII) with the following Terms of Reference:

“To establish a number of small and focussed Expert Teams, an Expert Network, and a Rapporteur, to tackle specific issues, with the following terms of reference:

– To develop in close cooperation with the relevant bodies of ICAO proposals for a new terminal weather forecast adapted to the needs of the 21st Century;

– To develop guidance on the provision of new and tailored services for all aviation stakeholders including airlines, commercial and general aviation, national and regional air traffic management and airport operators.

Limitation of standard Limitation of standard OPMET dataOPMET data

Existing MET products: TAF, TREND, take-off forecast etc. Annex 3 standard MET products

Limitations and Gap: – Crosswind, headwind, gusts, windshear, turbule

nce, change group criteria

TAF -- Limited for aerodrome area (~5 km around HKIA)

Different countries develop different Different countries develop different products to cater for the gapproducts to cater for the gap

Similarity– More details between 0-2 hours nowcasting products– Probabilistic forecast– Use of graphical/tabular form with alerting criteria– Lead times exceed the 2-hour limitation of TREND for

ecast– Weather briefing in plane language– Collaborative Decision Making products (all partners s

hare the information)

Weather BriefingSydney Airport Weather Briefing (Australia)

Issued at 0450Z on 01/01/04 Sydney TAF TAF YSSY 010436Z 0606 03015KT CAVOKFM18 01010KT CAVOKFM02 03015KT CAVOKT 27 25 23 21 Q 1009 1009 1009 1010 TAF Summary A high in the Tasman is directing a northerly flow over Sydney. The fresh northeast winds will ease this evening and tend northerly overnight. The northeast sea breeze will return again tomorrow around mid morning. There was a thunderstorm 45nm north-northwest of Sydney airport this afternoon, however it moved slowly to the east. There is the chance of some thunderstorm activity about the ranges west of Sydney again tomorrow. Thunderstorm PotentialThere is a slight chance of thunderstorms occurring within 20nm of Sydney Airport tomorrow. Other Possibilities20% chance there will be more than 20 knots crosswind gusts on runway 16/34-tomorrow afternoon. 10% chance thunderstorms will develop overnight. A Code Grey has been issued (see below). Sydney OutlookSaturday: City min 22, max 30. Fine, mostly sunny. N/NE winds, freshening near the coast in the afternoon.Sunday: City min 21, max 32. Fine. N/NE winds. CODE GREY 10% chance of 3000m in TS between 14-24Z. Regards Richard until 7pm, then Chris. Sydney Airport Meteorological Unit

Provide assessment of the latest weather situationAdditional information beyond TAF, e.g. likelihood of strong crosswinds, windshear, low visibilityOutlook for up to 48 hours

Weather Summary Page (HK)

Weather Briefing

NowcastingAutomated Thunderstorm Alert Service (Australia)

NowcastingNowcasting of thunderstorms for terminal area (HK)

Probabilistic forecast Probabilistic forecast generation...generation...

time

Forecast uncertainty

Climatology

Initial Condition Uncertainty

X

Deterministic Forecast

Analysis

Ensemble Prediction Systems are able to convey information about the uncertainty that is inherent in meteorology.

Probability forecast (Canada)Probability forecast (Canada)

Probability Maps (Canada)

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ensemble/index_naefs_e.html

Tabular form with alerting thresholdsTabular form with alerting thresholdsObservation board (France):

1st WMO New Terminal area Weather Forecast ET, Hong-Kong, China, 12-16 march 2007

Forecasting board (France):

Includes nowcasting, short and medium range forecasting for CDG


Tabular form with alerting thresholdsTabular form with alerting thresholds


« Atmogramme » (France) :

All codes, symbols and colours have been defined in collaboration with users



Extended forecast up to 18 hrsUpdated every half-hourCrosswind rounded to nearest knot(error ± 5 kt)Crosswind highlighted > 25kt(1-3 hr -> red 4-18 hr -> amber)

Extended take-off forecast (HK)

NowcastingNowcastingTactical Decision Aid for Terminal (USA)Tactical Decision Aid for Terminal (USA)

- Corner posts are “entrances in the sky” surrounding major airports, 50-70 miles away.

-Air traffic is sequenced through these posts.

- Location of posts is fixed, and each has its own unique weather limitations.

Map of northeastern Texas, showing gridded data values valid for the gridpoints closest to Fort Worth airport (center) and its four surrounding corner posts.

- For each corner post and time projection...-Time series with appropriate color.

- allows decision makers to quickly assess the current and future capacity of each corner post. Decision makers can then efficiently plan and direct traffic flow.


Tactical Decision Aid for Terminal (USA)Tactical Decision Aid for Terminal (USA)

In this example, the BYP corner post at Fort Worth is showing a high probability of Thunderstorms in the 19-20z timeframe.

Use of internetUse of internet

AMIDS– Facilitate sharing of information between different user groups

SMS

Aerodrome area Aerodrome area 5 km range

Effect of weather on ArrivalsEffect of weather on Arrivals07L ILS Approach07L ILS Approach

Effect of weather on Effect of weather on DeparturesDepartures

• DEP Flow Control

Terminal Area definitionTerminal Area definition

Based on IATA (ATM Implementation Roadmap – Short and Medium Term (release version 1.0 2004-10-15):– The Terminal Area is defined as that portion of the

airspace within the proximity of a controlled aerodrome within which arriving and departing aircraft are managed to provide separation, assurance, appropriate arrival spacing, appropriate departure spacing and final approach sequencing.

WorkplanWorkplan

Briefing to user groups User consultation

– Perception of gaps in the current service– Seek inputs, comments and requirements

Perform gap analysis– Current ICAO standards and recommended practices– Current activities related to terminal area– Existing meteorological applications– Current and future capabilities ( in space and time) – review and analyse data

Report to AMOS Study Group meeting – Apr 2008

Thank you

summary of wmo 1 st meeting of the caem expert team on new terminal weather forecast

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