wmo typhoon landfall forecast demonstration project...

WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast

Demonstration Project (TLFDP)

---- Progress Report

Oct., 2016

Presented by

Hui YU from Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA

Outline

• Backgrounds and objectives

• Implementation tasks and organization

• Main progress

• Future plan

• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/

CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009

• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009

• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project

• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off

• Implementing duration:

Phase I: 2010-2012

Phase II: 2013-2015

Phase III: 2016-2018

Backgrounds

• To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate

typhoon forecasts and strengthen the ability of decision-makers to

analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts

• To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon

forecasting technique in the world

• To assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon

forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits

• To promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast

technique for landfall typhoons in typhoon-affected Members of WMO

• To enhance the capability of forecasting typhoon landfall for the

“Shanghai MHEWS” to enable SMS to provide enhanced typhoon

forecast service during Shanghai Expo 2010

Objectives

Implementation tasks

Collection of real-time forecast data

Verification of forecasts

Dissemination of products

Benefit Assessment

Forecast integration techniques, and reliability analyses

Main progress

• Real time data collection

• Products dissemination

• Forecast evaluation

• Forecast technique development

• Training, and demonstration

• Benefits assessment

Typhoon forecast products

providers (TFPPs)Full name Abbreviation Ways of contribution

1 Australian Bureau of Meteorology BOM Email

2 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF FTP and via TIGGE

3 East China Regional Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological

Administration

ECRMC FTP

4 Hong Kong Observatory HKO GTS and FTP

5 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological

Administration

ITMM FTP and Intranet of CMA

6 Japan Meteorological Agency JMA GTS, FTP and via TIGGE

7 Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States JTWC GTS

8 Korea Meteorological Administration KMA GTS and via TIGGE

9 Meteorological Service of Canada MSC Via TIGGE

10 National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States NCEP Via TIGGE

11 National Hurricane Center of the United States NHC FTP

12 National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration NMC/CMA GTS, FTP, Intranet of CMA and

via TIGGE

13 RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of the World Meteorological Organization RSMC Tokyo GTS

14 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration STI FTP, Intranet of CMA and via

TIGGE

15 Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project of NCAR TCGP FTP

Products collected in real time

Type TFPP Track Intensity Wind Radii

2-D gridded surface

wind

2-D gridded precip.

3-D gridded model output

Official FCST HKOJTWCKMA

NMC/CMARSMC Tokyo

YYYYY

YYYYY

Y

Y (A)Y (A)

Global model ECMWFJMA

NMC/CMAYY

YY

YYY

YYY

YYY

Regional model

STIITMM

RMCEC

YY

YY

YYY

YYY

Y

Y

Ensemble prediction

ECMWFJMAKMAMSCNCEP

NMC/CMASTI

YYYYYYY

YYYYYYY

Consensus prediction

STI Y

Statistical prediction

HKONHC/USA

STI Y YY (P)

Y

Data Archiving

• All the related data and products of named

tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived

by SMS

• Available to research, training and capacity-

building activities

Main progress







Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center Operational website

Released in July 2010

in Chinese, in support of

EXPO2010

-- a component of Shanghai MHEWS

ProgressHKO QMORPH Product

STI/CMA TC Size Forecast Product

MICAPS TC Plug-in

A tool for browsing and analyzing tropical cyclone information together with other data

from multiple sources. In support of EXPO2010

http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn

Released in June, 2011

Strike probability

(EPS and super-ensemble)

Sample images

Gridded model output

High winds striking prob.

Track & intensity forecast and real time verification

FY-2E Satellite imagery

Main progress







Operational TC forecast verification practice in

the Northwest Pacific region

• The operational status of TC forecast

verification up to 2012 is analyzed on the

basis of an e-mail survey covering all the

Members of UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon

Committee

• Main conclusions

• Significant efforts have been focused on the

verification of TC forecast guidance by

operational forecast agencies in the region

• Only a few verification products are available

for the probabilistic forecasts from EPS

• Verification of TC precipitation and high wind

forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention

in the region

Yu, Chan, Brown, et al., 2012, TCRR

Invited talk at the 6th International

Verification Methods Workshop in

March 2014.

TC forecast evaluation research progress

• Forecasts of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and precipitation from operational

forecast agencies and deterministic NWP models since 2010 were evaluated to

reveal the current capability of TC forecast guidance over the western North

Pacific.

• The results were reported to the Sessions of Typhoon Committee annually from

2013 to 2015.

• Several papers have been published in peer-reviewed journals.

TC forecast evaluation for 2015

• Forecasts of track, intensity and genesis from operational forecast agencies,

deterministic NWP models, and EPSs were evaluated for tropical cyclones in

2015 in the western North Pacific region.

• The report is submitted to the 48th Session of the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon

Committee and can be downloaded by

http://www.typhooncommittee.org/48th/4-TC48Tech.html.

Metrics for tropical cyclone forecast

verification

A number of comments were provided to the

authors of the WMO document “Verification

of tropical cyclone forecasts” (by JWGFVR),

with special attention given to increase the

visibility of related efforts in the western North

Pacific region. This document has been

published by the WMO and is available on the

website of the WWRP

(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/ne

w/documents/WWRP2009-1_web_CD.pdf).

Main progress







EPS-based consensus forecast

method for TC track

m1

m2

m3

m4m…

mn-1

mn

Average SLT error of all members

Initial pointSelectedmembers

SLT forecast

LLT forecast

Latest Observation

Selected LLT ensemble mean after translating

EPS track forecasts (m1～ mn)

Observed track

Selective ensemble mean track after translating(SEAV or SEWE)

120E 125E 130E 120E 125E 130E

35N

30N

(a)

35N

30N

(b)

EPS member

best track

ECM

best track

SEAV

• Both single-EPS-based and multi-center-EPS-based forecast technique for

TC track are proposed by member selection based on errors at short lead

times.

• The idea is adopted by the forecasters in SMS and NMC/CMA since 2012

and two papers were published in peer-reviewed journals in 2014 and 2016.

Qi, Yu, and Chen, 2014, QJRMS

Du, Qi, and Cao, 2016, QJRMS

Multi-model consensus forecast

method for TC intensity

• A multi-model consensus forecast technique for TC intensity was developed

based on calibrated model outputs. A 28% (15-20%) skill at 12h (24-72h) is

obtained over the climatology and persistence technique for predicting TC

intensity.

• Two papers were published in peer-reviewed journals in 2013 and 2015.

The linear correlation coefficients between

initial TC intensity error and the intensity

forecast error of different models (%).

Scatter plot for the initial Pmin error and

24h forecast error.

Yu, Chen, et al. 2013, WAF

Intensity probability forecast technique

• An objective probabilistic climatology-based intensity forecast (PCIF) scheme is

developed for tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific, with a forecast

period of 120 h at 6-hourly intervals. The scheme can be either used as an

independent forecast guidance, or as a baseline for the skill assessment of other

probabilistic TC intensity forecast techniques.

• This work is published in peer-reviewed journal in 2016.

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

BS

SP

Lead time (h)

ALLSuperTYSTYTY

PCIF forecast for TC Haikui at 0000 UTC, 6 August 2012 The BSSP of the ECMWF-EPS(2011-2013)

Chen, Yu, et al. 2016, QJRMS

Main progress







Training courses, and Workshops

• June 2010, Shanghai

• 11 lecturers from 9 institutions

• Trainees: 20 forecasters working for

the World Expo 2010

• June 2012, Shanghai

• 11 lecturers from 9 institutions

• Trainees: 40 forecasters

Research fellowship projects

Seven research fellowship projects were

implemented as jointly supported by the

UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee,

STI and HKO. The successful applicants

of these projects visited STI or HKO for

one or two months and implemented

research on the topics covering TC

intensity forecast technique, rainfall

nowcasting technique, TC genesis

forecast evaluation technique, and TC

precipitation forecast evaluation technique.

Ms. Lethihai YEN

from Viet Nam (2013)

Mr. Boothum TANGLUMLEAD

from Thailand (2014)

Mr. Sang Il PAK

from DPRK (2014, 2015)

Mr. Yong Chol SONG

from DPRK (2014)

Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center

(STWC)

• A component of Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System

• Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in North West Pacific, especially those

with potential to affect Eastern China Region (ECR)

• Issue tropical cyclone warnings for ECR

WMO-TLFDP HomepageOperational website STWC

Data Collection

Verification

Main progress







Benefits assessment

• A series of surveys were carried out to assess the benefits of the

WMO-TLFDP

• The survey’s objects were divided into three groups: public users,

industrial and special users and meteorological forecasters

• The objective of the public user survey is to gauge the public’s

opinions on the accuracy of weather forecasts and typhoon

warnings issued by SMS

• The objective of the forecaster survey is to gauge the forecaster’s

opinions on the typhoon forecasting and on the typhoon objective

techniques during the project period

Benefits assessment

Forecasters’ needs: the most troubling issue in TC forecasting

Benefits assessment

Future Plan

One research fellowship project will be implemented from 24

October to 23 November by two experts from DPRK. The project

will be jointly supported by the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon

Committee and STI.

In the next two years (2017-2018), TLFDP will continue to work

closely with the UPDRAFT and Experiment on Typhoon Intensity

Change in Coastal Area (EXOTICCA, a UNESCAP/WMO

Typhoon Committee cross-cutting project) on the demonstration

and evaluation of TC intensity analysis and forecast techniques,

and precipitation forecast techniques.

Thank You

wmo typhoon landfall forecast demonstration project...

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