[summary] - mhlwmeasures for enhancing labour productivity are indispensable. when compared with the...
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Analysis of the Labour Economy 2015
(White Paper on the Labour Economy 2015)
-Measures for Labour Productivity and Employment/Labour Issues-
[Summary]
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
September 2015
- Measures for Labour Productivity and Employment/Labour Issues -
[Outline]
Analysis of the Labour Economy 2015
(White Paper on the Labour Economy 2015)
7,005
6,499
6,328 6,149
5,478
6,711
7,367
2.01 1.99
2.38
2.52
2.20
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
19992000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
妥結額(右目盛) 厚生労働省
経団連(大手) 連合
(%)
(Year)
(Yen) MHLW Agreed amount
(right axis)
Japan Business Federation (Large-scale businesses)
1.21
0.96 0.96 0.95
0.77 0.62
0.46 0.39
0.28 0.5
1.0
Gen
eral
m
ach
iner
y C
hem
ical
Tra
nspo
rtat
ion
equi
pmen
t
Fin
ance
/ In
sura
nce
Me
tals
Info
rmat
ion
and
Com
mun
icat
ion
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Elec
tric
eq
uip
men
t
Tran
spo
rt/
war
eho
usi
ng
Wh
ole
sale
/ re
tail
trad
e
Rea
l est
ate
Eati
ng
and
d
rin
kin
g se
rvic
es,
acco
mm
od
atio
ns
Fig.3 [2000 - 2006] Japan’s labour productivity level by industry (U.S. = 1)
1.20
Elec
tric
ity,
gas
, an
d w
ater
Oth
er
man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
0.91
0.61
0.39 0.53
1.5
2.0
[July 2006] 1.08
[August 2009] 0.42
[March 2015] 1.15
[July 2006] 0.64
[November 2009] 0.25
[March 2015] 0.71
(July 2009) 5.5
(March 2015) 3.4
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2002
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
(Year)
Unemployment rate (right axis)
Ratio of active job openings to active job applicants
Active job openings-to-applicants ratio for regular employees
((Time(s))
(%)
Outline of the Analysis of the Labour Economy 2015
The white paper was analyzed under the title “Measures for Labour Productivity and Employment/Labour Issues” for the purpose of maintaining and enhancing the economic vitality by overcoming the supply limitation, i.e. the shrinking labour force as a result of the decline in birthrate and demographic aging, and by enabling continued increase in wages.
Chapter 1: Trends and features of the labour economy
In order to sustain a virtuous economic cycle, increase in wages is important for stimulating consumption. For this reason, measures for enhancing labour productivity are indispensable.
When compared with the labour productivity levels of European and North American countries, Japan has a comparable growth rate though the level has dropped.
When Japan’s labour productivity levels by industry are compared with those of the U.S., the levels in Japan are lower mainly in the non-manufacturing industries, possibly due to the considerably smaller information technology (IT) capital investments made in Japan compared to those made in the U.S. Furthermore, while IT investments simultaneously accompany investments in brand equity, organizational structure, and human capital that contribute to growth, it is our challenge that such investments made in Japan are also extremely small.
Chapter 2: Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy
Employment conditions are steadily improving: the FY2014 average unemployment rate was 3.5%, the lowest rate in 17 years, and the FY 2014 average ratio of active job openings to active job applicants was 1.11, the highest ratio in 23 years. Furthermore, employment of regular workers increased, and the number of workers involuntarily working as non-regular workers decreased.
As a result of the shunto (annual spring wage offensive) of 2015, agreed amount and the wage increase rate both increased compared to the previous year. In addition, small and medium-sized companies tended to increase wages.
Fig. 2 Results of wage increase Fig. 1 Transition of the unemployment rate and the ratio of active job openings
to active job applicants
1.08
0.90
0.80 0.63 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.41
0.14 0.10
0.5
1.5
2.0
1.0
Fig.4 [2000 – 2006] Japan’s IT capital investment by industry (U.S. = 1)
0.91 0.82
0.80 0.70
Elec
tric
ity,
gas
, an
d w
ater
In
form
atio
n an
d Co
mm
unic
atio
n
Me
tals
Ch
emic
al
Fin
ance
/ In
sura
nce
Wh
ole
sale
/ re
tail
trad
e
Gen
eral
m
ach
iner
y
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Tran
spo
rt/
war
eho
usi
ng
Rea
l est
ate
Eati
ng
and
d
rin
kin
g se
rvic
es,
acco
mm
od
atio
ns
Elec
tric
eq
uip
men
t
Oth
er
man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Horizontal axis: Labour input by industry / Vertical axis: Man-hour(s) (Fig. 3 & 4) i
Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO)
Tra
nspo
rtat
ion
equi
pmen
t
ii
7.5
37.4 42.6
8.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
絶対に大手がよい
自分のやりたい仕事が
できるのであれば大手
企業がよい
やりがいのある仕事で
あれば中堅・中小企業
でもよい
中堅・中小企業がよい
(%)
30.2 21.6
57.2 63.0
12.6 15.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
短縮された
変わらない
(よく分からない
を含む)
Fig. 6 Assessment of labour productivity by companies with and without overtime reduction (in
comparison with industry peers)
Low or Rather low
Cannot specify / Do not know
(%)
High or Rather high
58.5
38.2
22.4 23.9 18.1
67.5
53.0 49.0
22.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
業務の繁閑が激しい
から、突発的な業務が
生じやすいから
人手不足だから
仕事の性質や顧客の
都合上、所定外でないと
できない仕事があるから
自分が納得できるまで
仕上げたいから
能力・技術不足のため
Fig. 5 Causes of overtime work (workers and employers)
(%)
Workers Employers
y = -2.7599x + 93.857
R² = 0.602
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21Em
plo
yme
nt
rate
of
fem
ales
of
the
ch
ild-r
ear
ing
gen
era
tio
n
(%)
Ratio of workers of the child-rearing generation working long hours
(%)
(-8.250) (19.346)
Chapter 3: For the realization of more effective work styles
Chapter 4: Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline
In order to encourage labour participation, work styles must be reviewed; e.g. correction of long working hours.
Reasons for the occurrence of overtime work given by both employers and workers include fluctuation in the amount of work, staff shortage, and customer service duties. In addition, while many employers responded as overtime being caused by workers’ lack of ability and skills, many workers responded that they want to produce satisfactory products/results based on their own standards.
Various efforts made by companies that worked on reducing overtime work and succeeded in overtime reduction include work condition reality check, alerting, reviewing of details and distribution of duties, and appeals from top executives. Such companies tend to regard themselves as having higher labour productivity in comparison with those of industry peers. (According to the responses given in company interviews, the positive effects of reduction in work hours were fatigue reduction and self-improvement.)
Regional economy vitalization is crucial to the economic growth of our country. Private final consumption expenditure contributes significantly to the growth of local economies. Accordingly, we must encourage labour participation by females and seniors, and also improve labour productivity since it is the prerequisite for raising income levels.
Regional labour productivity tends to improve when population, businesses, as well as human resources (e.g. people who have received higher education at universities or junior colleges, and people who work on self-development) concentrate in the region. To enhance this human resource group, improvements in the employment situation and attractive employment opportunities are needed.
Regional economic growth can be supported through efforts to secure workers in the era of population decline by encouraging females of the child-rearing generation to work; this can be done by providing sufficient day-care center capacity and suppressing long working hours to create an environment that enables the balancing of work and child-rearing.
y = 0.1115x + 7.7743 (6.809) (92.793)
R² = 0.5075
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
3 4 5 6 7 8
Lab
ou
r p
rod
uct
ivit
y (l
og-
tran
sfo
rmed
val
ue)
Density of graduates of higher education institutes (log-transformed value)
Fig. 9 Relationship between employment rate of females belonging to the child-rearing generation and day-care center capacity rate / rate of workers working long hours
(Yen / man hour)
(Number of graduates of higher education institutes/km2) (Number of people who work on self-development/km2)
Extr
eme
flu
ctu
atio
n in
w
ork
am
ou
nt
/ Fr
equ
entl
y ar
isin
g su
dd
en a
nd
u
nfo
rese
en d
uti
es
Staf
f sh
ort
age
Du
ties
th
at m
ust
be
per
form
ed b
y w
ork
ing
ove
rtim
e d
ue
to t
he
nat
ure
of
the
wo
rk o
r cu
sto
mer
s’ c
ircu
mst
ance
s
To p
rod
uce
pro
du
cts
or
resu
lts
of
sati
sfac
tory
q
ual
ity
Lack
of
abili
ty a
nd
ski
lls
Reduced Not changed (including “Not
clear”) (Whether or not overtime was reduced)
Fig.8 Job expectations of university students
(Class of 2015) Fig. 7 Relationship between human resource concentration and labour productivity
Def
init
ely
wan
t to
wo
rk a
t a
larg
e co
mp
any
A la
rge
com
pan
y is
des
irab
le if
th
e w
ork
mat
ches
my
care
er
inte
rest
s
A s
mal
l or
med
ium
-siz
ed
com
pan
y is
oka
y if
th
e w
ork
is
sati
sfyi
ng
Wan
t to
wo
rk a
t a
smal
l or
med
ium
-siz
ed c
om
pan
y
y = 0.1139x + 7.7988 (7.136) (101.083)
R² = 0.5309
8
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
3 4 5 6 7 8
Density of people who work on self-development (log-transformed value)
Lab
ou
r p
rod
uct
ivit
y (l
og-
tran
sfo
rmed
val
ue)
(Yen / man hour)
- Measures for Labour Productivity and Employment/Labour Issues -
[Overview]
Analysis of the Labour Economy 2015
(White Paper on the Labour Economy 2015)
Chapter 1 Trends and features of the labour economy - Trends of employment, unemployment, etc. -
Employment conditions are steadily improving: the FY2014 average unemployment rate was 3.5%, the lowest rate in 17 years, and the FY 2014 average ratio of active job openings to active job applicants was 1.11, the highest ratio in 23 years. Furthermore, the active job openings-to-applicants ratio for regular employees reached a record high in December 2014 at 0.71.
Employment of regular workers increased, and the number of workers involuntarily working as non-regular workers consecutively decreased for four consecutive quarters.
Source: Prepared based on “Report on Employment Service,” Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), “Labour Force Survey”, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) (left figure), and “Labour Force Survey (detailed tabulation),” Statistics Bureau, MIC (right figure). 1
[July 2006] 1.08
[August 2009] 0.42
[March 2015] 1.15
[July 2006] 0.64
[November 2009] 0.25
[December 2014] 0.71
[March 2015] 0.71
(July 2009) 5.5
(March 2015) 3.4
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2002
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Transition of the unemployment rate and the ratio of active job openings to active job applicants
(Year)
Unemployment rate (right axis)
Ratio of active job openings to active job applicants
Active job openings-to-applicants ratio for regular employees
(Time(s)) (%)
-43 -34 -29 -25 -20 -8
-3 -3
10
37 49 48 44
32 11 20 15 4
-11 -19 -3 -21 -38
-6
13 0
33
28
57 31
77
67
30 24
24
6
14
52 49
75
39
28
52 37
52
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ
2013 2014 2015
Transition of the number of employees
[Female] Non-regular staffs
and employees
[Male] Non-regular staffs
and employees
[Male] Regular staffs and employees [Female]
Regular staffs and employees
(Year/period)
Difference from the same period last year (10,000 persons)
[Total of male and female]
0
-15 -17
-7
-21
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ
2014 15
15 to 24 years old
65 years old and over
25 to 34 years old
35 to 64 years old
Difference from the same period last year (10,000 persons)
(Year/period)
Transition of the number of workers involuntarily working as non-regular workers
Total of all ages
Chapter 1 Trends and features of the labour economy - Trend of wages -
Nominal wages in FY 2014 increased for the first time in four years mainly due to the increase in special wages and scheduled wages of full-time workers. As a result of the shunto(annual spring wage offensive), agreed amount and the wage increase rate both increased compared to those of the previous year. In addition, wage increases were observed also in small and medium-sized companies.
Hourly wages of part-time workers also increased. Consequently, the wage gap between part-time workers and full-time workers has narrowed.
Source: Prepared based on “Monthly Labour Survey,” MHLW (left and lower right figures), “Situation of Demands and Conclusions of Negotiations for Wage Increase in Major Private Companies (Springtime),” MHLW, “Settlement Results of the Labour-Management Negotiations in the Springtime in Large-Scale Businesses (weighted average) (final results),” Japan Business Federation, and “Results of Final Responses to the Policy for Spring Struggle for a Better Life,” Japanese Trade Union Confederation (upper right figure).
2
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1994 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Transition of the total sum of cash earnings (%)
Percentage change from the previous year of the total
sum of cash earnings of all workers
(FY)
Contribution of the total sum of cash earnings of
part-time workers
Contribution of the non-scheduled
wages of full-time workers
Contribution of the scheduled wages of
full-time workers
Contribution of the special wages of full-time workers
Contribution of the ratio of part-time
workers
7,005
6,499 6,328 6,149
5,478
6,711
7,367
2.01 1.99
2.38
2.52
2.20
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
1999 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Results of wage increase
妥結額(右目盛) 厚生労働省
経団連(大手) 連合
(%)
(Year)
1,010
1,020
1,030
1,040
1,050
1,060
1,070
1,080
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
2010 11 12 13 14 15
Transition of the hourly wage of part-time workers
Ratio of the hourly wage of part-time workers to the hourly wage of full-time workers
Hourly wage of part-time workers (right axis)
(Hourly wage of full-time workers = 100) (Yen)
(Year)
Agreed amount (right axis) MHLW
Japan Business Federation (Large-scale businesses)
Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO)
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Japan
(1995 = 100)
(Year)
Real labour productivity per person
Real wage per employee
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy
- Wage stagnation in the midst of deflation and the causes (1) -
While real wages are increasing in the midst of increasing real labour productivity in the euro area and in the U.S., in Japan, real wages are stagnating in the midst of increasing real labour productivity.
Source: Prepared based on OECD.Stat.
International comparison of real wages and real labour productivity
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Euro area (1995 = 100)
(Year)
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
U.S. (1995 = 100)
(Year)
3
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy
- Wage stagnation in the midst of deflation and the causes (2) -
While the proportion of operating income in the added value of companies has been increasing, the proportion of labour cost (labour share) has decreased, especially from 2000 through 2004; the labour share of large companies has been showing a downward trend. This has been one of the causes of wage stagnation.
The worsening of terms of trade caused by the drop in export prices has cancelled out the upward pressure on wages caused by the increase in labour productivity. This has been another cause of wage stagnation.
Source: Prepared based on “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry” (quarterly journal), Ministry of Finance (left and central figures). Estimated based on “Monthly Labour Survey,” MHLW, “Labour Force Survey,” MIC, and “National Accounts,” Cabinet Office (right figure). 4
Analysis of factors of real wage increase rate
Proportions in added value Labour share of large companies
14.7 15.3 15.6 13.9
14.4 16.0 17.2 18.4
71.0 68.7 67.2 67.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995-99 2000-04 05-09 10-14
(%)
(Year)
Labour cost
Operating profits
Depreciation cost
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1995-99 2000-04 05-09 10-14
(%)
(Year)
Increase rate of real labour productivity
Labour share was increased by the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Labour share dropped sharply from 2000 through 2004.
The worsening of terms of trade has been putting a continuous downward pressure on wages.
Labour productivity
Terms of trade
Labour share
y = -0.0289x + 56.28
(-3.5) (98.7) R² = 0.0955
40
50
60
70
198587 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
(%)
(Year)
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy
- Wage stagnation in the midst of deflation and the causes (3) -
Increase in non-regular workers such as part-time workers with comparatively lower wages puts downward pressure on the average wage.
In light of the fact that almost 90% of the group of non-regular workers such as part-time workers that joined the workforce in the past 10 years consisted of seniors aged 60 and over and females aged under 60, wages were analyzed by factors of changes in the wages of full-time workers and part-time workers as well as factors of the rise in the ratio of part-time workers by age group. Looking at the average of five years from 2010, the rise in the ratio of part-time workers of those social strata accounts for 0.37% (93.3% of the downward pressure caused by the ratio of part-time workers) of the downward pressure on wages.
Analysis of factors of the increase in non-regular workers such as part-time workers (2004 →2014)
Source: Prepared based on “Labour Force Survey (detailed tabulation),” Statistics Bureau, MIC (left figure). Calculated based on “Basic Survey on Wage Structure,” MHLW (right figure).
Analysis of factors of wages by age group
5
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1995-99 2000-04 05-09 10-14
パート比率要因 60歳未満(男) パート比率要因 60歳未満(女) パート比率要因 60歳以上(男)
パート比率要因 60歳以上(女) 一般労働者賃金要因 パート賃金要因
(%)
(Year)
-0.55%
(78.5%) -0.70%
(75.5%)
-0.32%
(65.2%)
-0.37%
(93.3%)
Total level of contribution of the ratio of part-time workers
-0.69%
-0.92%
-0.49% -0.39%
Proportion of the level of contribution of persons aged 60 and over and females aged under 60 in the entire ratio of part-time workers
Wages of full-time workers Wages of part-time workers 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
(Increase in 2014 compared to 2004, Unit: 10,000 persons)
Male aged 60 and over (1.21 million persons, 30.4%)
Female aged 60 and over (1.24 million persons, 31.2%)
Female aged less than 60 (1.10 million persons, 27.6%)
Male aged less than 60 (0.43million persons, 10.8%)
Male and female aged 60 and over (2.45million persons, 61.6%)
Female aged less than 60 (1.10 million persons, 27.6%)
Total (3.98 million persons)
Ratio of part-time workers aged under 60 (male)
Ratio of part-time workers aged under 60 (female)
Ratio of part-time workers aged 60 and over (female)
Ratio of part-time workers aged 60 and over (male)
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy - Sustaining a virtuous economic cycle by expanding demand -
Until 1990, there was a high correlation between compensation of employees (wages/salary) and final consumption expenditure of households which accounts for approximately 60% of the GDP in Japan. However, social benefits such as pension benefits have been underpinning household income since 1998. In order to stimulate consumption, it is important that corporate profits are distributed to wages.
According to the consumption function estimation results, a 1% increase in scheduled wages increases macro-level personal consumption by 0.59%. On the other hand, a 1% increase in non-scheduled wages or special wages increases macro-level personal consumption only by 0.09% and 0.13%, respectively. Constant wage increases such as an increase in scheduled wages by a base pay raise have a greater impact on consumption stimulation.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13
(trillion yen)
Compensation of employees (wages/salary)
Social benefits
Final consumption expenditure of households
(Year)
Compensation of employees + social benefits
Relationship between private consumption and employee compensation & social benefits
Impact of 1% wage increase on macro-level private consumption (elasticity)
Source: Prepared based on “National Accounts,” Cabinet Office (left figure). Estimated based on “Monthly Labour Survey,” MHLW, “Labour Force Survey,” Statistics Bureau, MIC, and “National Accounts,” Cabinet Office (right figure).
6
0.59
0.09
0.13
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
所定内給与 所定外給与 特別給与
(%)
Scheduled wages Non-scheduled
wages Special wages
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
199091 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99200001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
フランス ドイツ 日本
英国 米国
($)
(Year)
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1990-94 95-99 2000-04 05-09 10-14
フランス ドイツ 日本
英国 米国
(%)
(Year)
France Germany Japan
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy - Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (1) -
Increase in labour productivity is indispensable for maintaining and enhancing the economic vitality by overcoming the supply limitation, i.e. the shrinking labour force as a result of the decline in birthrate and demographic aging, and for enabling continued increase in wages.
When compared with the labour productivity levels of European countries and the U.S., Japan has a comparable growth rate though the level has dropped.
7
Level of labour productivity Increase rate of real labour productivity
Source: Prepared based on OECD.Stat. (Note) The following issues accompany the purchasing power parity technique employed for comparing the levels of labour productivity in different countries: problems
with the selection of products and services used for the calculation, and the problem that same products and services have differing qualities depending on countries.
U.K. U.S.
France Germany Japan
U.K. U.S.
1.21 1.20
0.96 0.96 0.95 0.91
0.77 0.62 0.61
0.53 0.46 0.39 0.39
0.28 0.5
1.5
2.0 20% 40% 60% 80%
0
Gen
eral
m
ach
iner
y
Ch
emic
al
Tran
spor
tatio
n eq
uipm
ent
Fin
ance
an
d
insu
ran
ce
Met
al
Info
rmat
ion
and
com
mun
icat
ions
Cons
truc
tion
Elec
tric
eq
uipm
ent
Elec
tric
ity, g
as
and
wat
er
Tran
spor
t an
d w
areh
ousin
g
Who
lesa
le
and
reta
il tr
ade
Real
est
ate
1.0
O
ther
m
anu
fact
uri
ng
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy - Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (2) -
When labour productivity levels are compared between Japan and the U.S. across industries, levels are lower in Japan mainly in the non-manufacturing industries.
When the levels of IT capital investment as an investment element are compared between Japan and the U.S., investment in this area is lower in Japan in almost all industries.
It has been pointed out that reluctance for corporate restructuring has slowed down the introduction of IT in Japan; in order to improve labour productivity, it is important to actively invest in the IT sector.
1.08 0.91 0.90 0.82
0.80 0.80 0.70 0.63
0.50 0.48 0.46 0.41
0.14 0.10
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0 20% 40% 60% 80%
0
Met
al
O
ther
m
anu
fact
uri
ng
[Average value for 2000-2006] Japan’s labour productivity levels by industry (U.S. = 1)
[Average value for 2000-2006] Japan’s IT capital investment by industry (U.S. = 1)
Source: Prepared based on GGDC (Groningen Growth and Development Center) data. Horizontal axis: Labour input by industry/ Vertical axis: Man-hour(s) 8
Elec
tric
ity,
gas
and
wat
er
Info
rmat
ion
and
com
mun
icat
ions
Fin
ance
an
d
insu
ran
ce
Ch
emic
al
Elec
tric
eq
uipm
ent
Who
lesa
le
and
reta
il tr
ade
Tran
spor
tatio
n eq
uipm
ent
Eatin
g and
drin
king
serv
ices,
ac
com
mod
ation
s
Gen
eral
m
ach
iner
y
Cons
truc
tion
Tran
spor
t an
d w
areh
ousin
g
Real
est
ate
Eati
ng
and
dri
nki
ng
serv
ices
, ac
com
mo
dat
ion
s
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy - Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (3) -
According to the analysis of factors of labour productivity in light of intangible assets (1. computerized information such as software, 2. innovative property such as R&D, and 3. economic competencies, i.e. investments in brand equity, organizational structure, and human capital), which is gaining increasing attention in relation to recent productivity analyses, while the contribution of intangible assets to the increase of productivity is large in other countries, that of Japan is small.
When capital investments are compared internationally, in Japan, the proportions of investments in tangible assets such as buildings, machinery, and equipment are higher, while the proportions of investments in intangible assets are lower; especially, the proportions of investments in economic competencies are considerably lower.
International comparison of capital investments
25.5
18.0 20.3
16.0 18.4
14.2 13.4
18.8 16.6
12.5
15.3 16.3 16.7
13.3
7.6 8.9 9.5 10.1
13.7 11.5
9.0
1.8
1.4
0.9
1.6
1.2
3.0 2.6
1.1
2.3
4.2
1.1 1.2 1.0
1.1
2.3
2.6 2.0 1.8
1.5
1.8
0.8
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.6
4.8
5.6
4.6
3.7 5.4
4.4 3.5
2.6 2.4
4.3
5.7 3.4 5.3
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.2
6.8 4.5
7.8
4.6
5.3
6.3
3.1 2.1
4.6
4.3 4.0 3.5 4.5
7.2 6.9
4.4 6.3
2.9
3.9
5.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
韓国 (2008)
カナダ (2008)
チェコ共和国
ベルギー
スロベニア
スウェーデン
フランス
オーストラリア
日本 (2008)
デンマーク
オーストリア
ポルトガル
イタリア
ドイツ
米国
英国
フィンランド
オランダ
スペイン
ルクセンブルク
アイルランド
有形資産 情報化資産
革新的資産 経済的競争能力
(%:Proportion of capital investment in added value)
9
0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4
1.1
0.2
0.9 0.7
0.3 0.6
0.8
0.8
0.2 0.4
0.4
0.3 0.5
0.8 1.1
0.7
0.4
1.4
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
日本 米国 英国 ドイツ フランス スウェーデン
TFP変化率 労働の質
無形資産の寄与度 有形資産の寄与度
(%)
Labour quality (0.0)
Analysis of factors of labour productivity in light of intangible assets
(Average values for 1995-2007)
TFP growth rate
Level of contribution of intangible assets
Labour quality
Level of contribution of tangible assets
Tangible assets
Innovative property
Computerized information Economic competencies
Japan U.S. U.K. Germany France Sweden
Ko
rea
(20
08
)
Can
ada
(20
08
)
Czec
h Re
publ
ic
Bel
giu
m
Slo
ven
ia
Swed
en
Fran
ce
Au
stra
lia
Jap
an (
20
08
)
Den
mar
k
Au
stri
a
Po
rtu
gal
Ital
y
Ger
man
y
U.S
.
U.K
.
Fin
lan
d
Net
her
lan
ds
Spai
n
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Irel
and
Source: “Investments in Intangible Assets by Industries and Economic Growth in Japan,” Miyagawa and Hisa (2013) (left figure) “Supporting investment in knowledge capital, growth and innovation” OECD (2013) (right figure)
(Note) Total factor productivity (TFP) is regarded as the portion (residual error) of production increase which cannot be measured by the increase in investments of production elements such as capital and labour, and is understood to reflect innovation, management efficiency, etc. As for “labour quality,” on the basis that the level of wages reflects the fluctuation in labour productivity, workers are grouped according to attributes such as education level and age, and based on the growth accounting perspective, it is regarded that the labour quality has risen when there is an increase in the proportion of the group with higher total wages.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Japan
ブランド資産・組織改編 企業が行う人的資本投資 革新的資産 情報化資産
(Trillion Japanese yen)
(Year)
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy - Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (4) -
Looking at the investments in intangible assets in Japan, the U.S., and Germany, when economic competencies are analyzed in terms of investments in brand equity and organizational structure and investments by firms in human capital, investments by firms in human capital have dropped sharply in Japan; the proportion of investments in this category is approximately 10% of those of the U.S. and Germany.
Though it must be noted that on-the-job training costs are not included in investments by firms in human capital since this item is estimated based on off-the-job training costs, the drop in the proportion of investments in human capital raises concerns about the fact that human capital is not being accumulated for the future.
Source: Prepared based on INTAN-Invest database and JIP database. 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
U.S.
(Year)
(10 billion U.S. dollars)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
199596 97 98 99200001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Germany
(Year)
(10 billion euros)
Investments in intangible assets
Brand equity and organizational structure
Investments by firms in human capital
Innovative property
Computerized information
Looking at the relationship between added value growth rates by industry and intangible assets, IT capital, as well as the percentage of specialists/technicians in order to examine whether or not there is a difference in added value growth rates when intangible assets such as investments in brand equity, organizational structure, and human capital are combined with other investment elements, there are more industries with higher added value growth rates in the industry groups with higher-than-average intangible asset stocks and IT capital stocks. Furthermore, there are more industries with higher added value growth rates in the industry groups with higher-than-average intangible asset stocks and percentages of specialists/technicians.
As demonstrated by these data, industry growth is enhanced by simultaneously increasing investments in intangible assets as well as the above mentioned investment elements.
11 -5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
8 10 12 14 16 18
Per
cen
tage
of
spec
ialis
ts/p
rofe
ssio
nal
s
Intangible asset stock (log-transformed value)
Real added value growth rate by intangible asset stock and percentage of specialists/professionals
9
11
13
15
17
19
8 10 12 14 16 18
IT c
apit
al s
tock
(Lo
g-tr
ansf
orm
ed v
alu
e)
Intangible asset stock (log-transformed value)
Real added value growth rate by intangible asset stock and IT capital stock
A large number of industry groups with positive growth rates are observed.
Source: Prepared based on Japan Industrial Productivity (JIP) Data base, The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. (Note): The size of the bubbles represents the size of growth rates. Bubbles of industries with positive growth rates are shown in dark colors.
Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy - Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (5) -
While the total actual working hours of workers has decreased mainly due to the increase in the ratio of part-time workers, the total actual working hours of full-time workers has not changed significantly.
When examined by industries, the percentage of workers working 60 hours or longer per week is high in Eating and drinking services, accommodations, transport and postal activities, as well as living-related and personal services and amusement services. When examined by age groups, the percentage of regular male staff/employees working 60 hours or longer per week is high in age groups from 25 to 39.
Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles - Current work styles in Japan -
13.8
5.7
16.6
8.9
4.3
11.9
28.3
17.1
11.5
16.8
13.3
32.1
22.3
19.2
6.5
11.8 10.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
産業計
鉱業,採石業,砂利採取業
建設業
製造業
電気・ガス・熱供給・水道業
情報通信業
運輸業,郵便業
卸売業,小売業
金融業,保険業
不動産業,物品賃貸業
学術研究,専門・技術サービス業
宿泊業,飲食サービス業
生活関連サービス業,娯楽業
教育,学習支援業
医療,福祉
サービス業(他に分類されないもの)
公務(他に分類されるものを除く)
Percentage of workers working 60 hours or longer per week by industry (regular) (%)
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
1982 87 92 97 2002 07 12(Year)
Transition of the percentage of regular staff/employees working 60 hours or longer per week (male) (%)
Total of all ages
20 to24 years old
25 to 29 years old 30 to 34 years old 35 to 39 years old
40 to 44 years old
45 to 49 years old
50 to 54 years old
55 to 59 years old
Tota
l of
the
Ind
ust
ries
Min
ing
and
Qu
arry
ing
of
sto
ne
and
gr
avel
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Elec
tric
ity,
gas
, hea
t su
pp
ly a
nd
w
ater
Info
rmat
ion
an
d c
om
mu
nic
atio
ns
Tran
spo
rt a
nd
po
stal
act
ivit
ies
Wh
ole
sale
an
d r
etai
l tra
de
Fin
ance
an
d in
sura
nce
Rea
l est
ate
and
go
od
s re
nta
l an
d
leas
ing
Scie
nti
fic
rese
arch
, pro
fess
ion
al
and
tec
hn
ical
ser
vice
s Ea
tin
g an
d d
rin
kin
g se
rvic
es,
acco
mm
od
atio
ns
Livi
ng-
rela
ted
an
d p
erso
nal
se
rvic
es a
nd
am
use
men
t se
rvic
es
Edu
cati
on
, lea
rnin
g su
pp
ort
Med
ical
, h
ealt
h c
are
and
wel
fare
Serv
ices
, N.E
.C
Go
vern
men
t, e
xcep
t el
sew
her
e cl
assi
fied
Source: Prepared based on “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure (2012),” Statistics Bureau, MIC (left figure). Prepared based on “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure,” Statistics Bureau, MIC (right figure).
010203040506070
人手不足だから
業務の繁閑が激しい
から、突発的な業務が
生じやすいから
仕事の性質や顧客の
都合上、所定外でないと
できない仕事があるから
急な方針変更や曖昧な指示、
プロセスの多い決裁手続き、
長時間におよぶ会議など、
仕事の進め方にムダがあるから
組織間や従業員間で
業務配分にムラが
あるから
求められている成果が
明確でないから
自分が納得できるまで
仕上げたいから
仕事が面白いから
納期やノルマが
厳しいから
営業時間が長いから
残業手当や休日手当を
稼ぎたいから
残業が昇進・昇格など
人事上で評価される
慣行・風土があるから
成果・業績主義化や仕事の
個別化等で、職場に
助け合いの雰囲気がないから
職場に帰りにくい
雰囲気があるから
自分の能力や技術が
足りないから
その他
Causes of overtime work (workers / by annual income) (%)
Less than 3 million yen
3 to 5 million yen 5 to 8 million yen
8 million yen and over
53.0
2.9
67.5
49.0
23.1 24.7
4.9 14.5
8.4 14.2
4.1 3.4 8.3
22.5
4.5
010203040506070
人員が不足して
いるから
雇用の初期費用が
高いから
業務の繁閑が激しい
から、突発的な業務が
生じやすいから
仕事の性質や顧客の
都合上、所定外でないと
できない仕事があるから
仕事の進め方に
ムダがあるから
組織間や従業員間の
業務配分にムラが
あるから
個々の仕事に求める
成果が明確でない
から
納期やノルマが
厳しいから
営業時間が
長いから
(従業員が)残業手当や
休日手当を稼ぎたい
から
(従業員が)人事評価を
気にしているから
成果・業績主義化や業務の
個別化等で、職場に
助け合いの雰囲気がないから
職場に帰りにくい
雰囲気があるから
能力・技術不足で
時間がかかってしまう
従業員がいるから
その他
Causes of overtime work (employers)
(%)
According to a survey of workers and employers, the percentage of respondents that gave the following reasons for the occurrence of overtime work was high in both groups: fluctuation in the amount of work, the frequent arising sudden and unforeseen duties, and staff shortage.
In addition, a high percentage of workers responded that overtime work occurs because they want to produce satisfactory products/results based on their own standards. Meanwhile, only a low percentage of workers responded that they work overtime to earn overtime and holiday/day-off allowances.
High percentage of employers responded that overtime work is caused because work is performed inefficiently or because there are duties that must be performed by working overtime due to customers’ circumstances. Also, many employers responded that employees who take time to perform work because of lack of ability and skills are the cause of overtime work.
Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles - Current circumstances and challenges of work styles in terms of worker’s
and employer’s perspectives (1) -
Source: Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours and Work Style Needs (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training (upper figure). Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours Management and Efficient Work Styles (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training (lower figure). 13
Insu
ffic
ien
t n
um
ber
of
staf
f
Extr
eme
flu
ctu
atio
n in
wo
rk
amo
un
t, f
req
uen
tly
aris
ing
sud
den
an
d u
nfo
rese
en d
uti
es
Du
ties
th
at m
ust
be
per
form
ed
by
wo
rkin
g o
vert
ime
du
e to
th
e n
atu
re o
f w
ork
or
cust
om
ers’
ci
rcu
mst
ance
s
Inef
fici
entl
y p
erfo
rmed
wo
rk d
ue
to s
ud
den
po
licy
chan
ges,
am
big
uo
us
inst
ruct
ion
s, f
inal
d
ecis
ion
-mak
ing
pro
cess
wit
h t
oo
m
any
step
s, lo
ng
mee
tin
gs, e
tc.
Un
even
ly d
istr
ibu
ted
wo
rk
amo
ng
emp
loye
es
and
th
e o
rgan
izat
ion
Un
clea
rly
spec
ifie
d e
xpec
ted
re
sult
s
To p
rod
uce
pro
du
cts/
resu
lts
of
sati
sfac
tory
qu
alit
y
Wo
rk is
inte
rest
ing
Tou
gh d
eliv
ery
sch
edu
les
and
q
uo
ta
Lon
g o
per
atin
g h
ou
rs
To e
arn
ove
rtim
e an
d
ho
liday
/day
-off
allo
wan
ces
Co
mp
any
cult
ure
/cu
sto
m t
hat
re
cogn
izes
ove
rtim
e as
an
item
o
f p
erso
nn
el e
valu
atio
n f
or
adva
nce
men
t in
ran
k, p
osi
tio
n,
etc.
No
atm
osp
her
e o
f co
op
erat
ion
at
wo
rkp
lace
du
e to
em
ph
asis
on
o
utc
om
e/p
erfo
rman
ce a
nd
in
div
idu
aliz
atio
n o
f w
ork
Wo
rkp
lace
atm
osp
her
e m
akes
it
dif
ficu
lt t
o le
ave
earl
ier
than
o
ther
s
My
ow
n la
ck o
f ab
ility
an
d s
kills
Oth
ers
Lack
of
wo
rker
s
Hig
h in
itia
l co
sts
of
hir
ing
Extr
em
e fl
uct
uat
ion
in
wo
rk a
mo
un
t, f
req
uen
tly
aris
ing
sud
den
an
d
un
fore
seen
du
ties
Du
ties
th
at m
ust
be
per
form
ed b
y w
ork
ing
ove
rtim
e d
ue
to t
he
nat
ure
of
wo
rk o
r cu
sto
mer
s’ c
ircu
mst
ance
s
Wo
rk is
per
form
ed
inef
fici
entl
y
Un
even
ly d
istr
ibu
ted
wo
rk
amo
ng
emp
loye
es
and
th
e o
rgan
izat
ion
Un
clea
rly
spec
ifie
d
exp
ecte
d r
esu
lts
of
ind
ivid
ual
du
ties
Tou
gh d
eliv
ery
sch
edu
les
and
qu
ota
Lon
g o
per
atin
g h
ou
rs
(Fo
r em
plo
yee
s) t
o e
arn
o
vert
ime
and
ho
liday
/day
-o
ff a
llow
ance
s
Pers
on
nel
eva
luat
ion
is in
th
e m
ind
(o
f em
plo
yee
s)
No
atm
osp
her
e o
f co
op
erat
ion
at
wo
rkp
lace
d
ue
to e
mp
has
is o
n
ou
tco
me/
per
form
ance
an
d in
div
idu
aliz
atio
n o
f w
ork
Wo
rkp
lace
atm
osp
her
e m
akes
it d
iffi
cult
to
leav
e ea
rlie
r th
an o
ther
s
Emp
loye
es
wh
o t
ake
tim
e to
per
form
wo
rk b
ecau
se
of
lack
of
abili
ty a
nd
ski
lls
Oth
ers
6.3
74.1
19.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
増えた 変わらない 減った
Change in the total actual working hours due to increased IT utilization
(%) (Rank or position of
employees who worked overtime
has) advanced, 4.8
Not advanced, 26.5
Cannot tell for sure, 68.6
Advancement in rank or position of employees who worked overtime (employer)
(Unit: %)
According to the survey of employers, a high percentage of them do not include overtime work in the personnel evaluation items for advancement in rank or position.
IT utilization is regarded as a tool for efficient work styles; nearly 20% of employers responded that the total actual working hours decreased by IT utilization.
In order to reduce overtime work which is caused by heteronomous factors, it is important to distribute staff efficiently based on analyses of fluctuation in demand, and to build business models that are less likely to be affected by outside factors. Meanwhile, IT utilization and good communication between superiors and subordinates are important for performing work efficiently.
Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles - Current circumstances and challenges of work styles in terms of worker’s
and employer’s perspectives (2) -
(Total actual working hours of the entire company)
Source: Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours Management and Efficient Work Styles (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training. 14
Evaluate positively
(including “if anything”), 9.1
Evaluate negatively
(including “if anything”), 4.7
Cannot tell for sure, 37.5
Not evaluate (Length of
overtime work is unrelated
with personnel evaluation),
48.7
Personnel evaluation of overtime work (employer)
(Unit: %)
Increased Not changed Decreased
Many companies that were successful in reducing overtime work took the following approaches: work condition reality check, alerting and advising workers working long hours and their superiors, and reviewing details and distribution of duties.
Such companies tended to regard their company as having higher labour productivity in comparison with those of industry peers. Hence, reduction of overtime work is meaningful not only for workers but for companies as well. According to the responses given in company interviews, the positive effects of reduction in work hours included fatigue reduction, increased motivation, and self-improvement.
Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles - Aiming at creating a virtuous cycle for workers and employers by improving work styles (1) -
Source: Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours Management and Efficient Work Styles (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training. 15
69.2
43.1
6.7
12.0
38.4
50.0
66.1
42.4
55.2
26.1 24.2
10.3
45.1
17.1
1.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
実態(実際の労働時間等)
の把握
ノー残業デーの
設定
強制消灯、PCの
一斉電源オフ
社内放送等による
終業の呼び掛け
経営トップからの呼び掛けや
経営戦略化による意識啓発
所定外労働の事前届出制
の導入
長時間労働者やその上司等
に対する注意喚起や助言
適正な人員確保
仕事の内容・分担の
見直し
非正社員の活用や
外部委託化の推進
労働時間管理や健康確保に係る、
管理職向けの研修・意識啓発
労働時間管理や健康確保に係る、
非管理職向けの研修・意識啓発
休日労働に対する
代休の付与
委員会等による検討
その他
Approaches taken by companies that successfully reduced overtime work
(%)
30.2 21.6
57.2 63.0
12.6 15.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
短縮された
変わらない
(よく分からない
を含む)
Assessment of labour productivity by companies with and without overtime reduction (comparison with industry peers)
(Whether or not overtime work was reduced)
Low or Rather low
Cannot specify / Do not know
High or Rather high
(%)
Wo
rk c
on
dit
ion
s (e
.g. a
ctu
al w
ork
h
ou
rs)
real
ity
chec
k
Esta
blis
hm
ent
of
No
Ove
rtim
e D
ay
Forc
ed li
ghts
off
, fo
rced
sh
utd
ow
n o
f al
l PC
s
Cal
ls t
o f
inis
h w
ork
usi
ng
com
pan
y an
no
un
cin
g sy
stem
etc
.
Cal
ls f
rom
to
p e
xecu
tive
s an
d
awar
enes
s en
han
cem
ent
acti
viti
es
bas
ed o
n m
anag
emen
t st
rate
gies
Intr
od
uct
ion
of
adva
nce
ove
rtim
e w
ork
re
po
rt s
yste
m
Ale
rtin
g an
d a
dvi
sin
g o
f lo
ng-
ho
ur
wo
rker
s an
d t
hei
r su
per
viso
rs
Ap
pro
pri
ate
staf
fin
g
Rev
iew
of
det
ails
an
d d
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f d
uti
es
Uti
lizat
ion
of
no
n-r
egu
lar
emp
loye
es
and
ou
tso
urc
ing
Trai
ning
and
aw
aren
ess e
nhan
cem
ent
activ
ities
for e
xecu
tives
rega
rdin
g w
ork
hour
man
agem
ent a
nd h
ealth
mai
nten
ance
Tr
aini
ng a
nd a
war
enes
s enh
ance
men
t ac
tiviti
es fo
r non
-exe
cutiv
es re
gard
ing
wor
k ho
ur m
anag
emen
t and
hea
lth m
aint
enan
ce
Gra
nti
ng
of
com
pen
sati
on
day
-off
fo
r d
ay-o
ff/h
olid
ay w
ork
Eval
uat
ion
by
com
mit
tee
etc
.
Oth
ers
Reduced Not changed (including “Not clear”)
In order to maintain/enhance production activities while reducing work hours, labour productivity must be enhanced and labour input must be increased.
A high percentage of companies that implement educational training regards themselves as having higher labour productivity in comparison with those of industry peers, and state that their sales (over the past three years) have increased.
It is important to provide diverse work styles that meet the needs of workers who wish to work more hours and potential workers who are unemployed due to being unable to find jobs because of work conditions, such as work hours and work schedules, so that they can participate in labour in ways that suit their desired work conditions.
Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles - Aiming at creating a virtuous cycle for workers and employers by improving work styles (2) -
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
取り組んでいる
取り組んでいない
Implementation of educational training and labour productivity (%)
Low
Rather low
Cannot specify / Do not know
Rather high
32.1%
19.2%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
取り組んでいる
取り組んでいない
Implementation of educational training and transition of sales over the past three years (%) Dropped
sharply (15% and over)
Decreased (more than 5% and less than 15% )
Nearly flat (increase/ decrease of less than 5%)
Increased sharply (15% and over)
44.1%
23.5%
Source: Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours Management and Efficient Work Styles (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training. 16
Implemented Not implemented High
(Educational training activities)
Implemented Not implemented
(Educational training activities)
Increased (more than 5% and less than 15% )
Chapter 4 Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline - Demographic trends and labour supply limitations -
Population inflow to the Tokyo-area has been increasing since 2011. Young age groups of both males and females tend to concentrate in the Tokyo-area due to the concentration of
universities and large companies.
Source: “Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registers,” Statistics Bureau, MIC 17
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1954 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
(10,000 persons)
(Year)
Tokyo-area
Nagoya-area
Osaka-area
Population inflow to the three metropolitan areas
Nu
mb
er o
f ex
cess
new
res
iden
ts
(bel
ow
zer
o: n
um
ber
of
exce
ss d
epar
ted
res
iden
ts)
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0~
4
5~
9
1
0~
1
4
1
5~
1
9
2
0~
2
4
2
5~
2
9
3
0~
3
4
3
5~
3
9
4
0~
4
4
4
5~
4
9
5
0~
5
4
5
5~
5
9
6
0~
6
4
6
5~
6
9
7
0~
7
4
7
5~
7
9
8
0~
8
4
8
5~
8
9
9
0~
(10,000 persons)
(Age)
Tokyo-area
Osaka-area
Nagoya-area
Population inflow to the three metropolitan areas (male, 2014)
Nu
mb
er o
f ex
cess
new
res
iden
ts
(bel
ow
zer
o: n
um
ber
of
exce
ss d
epar
ted
res
iden
ts)
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0~
4
5~
9
1
0~
1
4
1
5~
1
9
2
0~
2
4
2
5~
2
9
3
0~
3
4
3
5~
3
9
4
0~
4
4
4
5~
4
9
5
0~
5
4
5
5~
5
9
6
0~
6
4
6
5~
6
9
7
0~
7
4
7
5~
7
9
8
0~
8
4
8
5~
8
9
9
0~
(10,000 persons)
(Age)
Tokyo-area
Nagoya-area
Osaka-area
Population inflow to the three metropolitan areas (female, 2014)
Nu
mb
er o
f ex
cess
new
res
iden
ts
(bel
ow
zer
o: n
um
ber
of
exce
ss d
epar
ted
res
iden
ts)
Tokyo-area: Saitama-ken, Chiba-ken, Tokyo-to, Kanagawa-ken Nagoya-area: Gifu-ken, Aichi-ken, Mie-ken Osaka-area: Kyoto-fu, Osaka-fu, Hyogo-ken, Nara-ken
y = 0.0501x - 0.1125
R² = 0.3361
y = 0.0127x - 0.0129
R² = 0.3596
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-25 -15 -5 5 15
若年層 全体
(5.027)
(4.772)
Rat
io o
f n
et in
flo
w a
mo
ng
pre
fect
ure
s re
late
d t
o e
mp
loym
ent
(%)
Relationship of the average annual income of full-time workers and employment-related population flow
among prefectures
y = 0.1256x + 7.4798
(6.711) (57.951) R² = 0.5002
8
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
5 6 7 8 9 10
Population density (log-transformed value) La
bo
ur
pro
du
ctiv
ity
(lo
g-tr
ansf
orm
ed v
alu
e)
Relationship of population density and labour productivity
(Yen/man hour)
(Population / km2)
Chapter 4 Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline - Challenges for creating a virtuous economic cycle in regions (1) -
The average annual income, i.e. the wage standard, tends to be higher in regions with higher labour productivity. Accordingly, there is a trend of employment-related population flow to areas with higher wage standards.
Levels of labour productivity are higher in areas with higher concentration of population and higher population density. Efforts to increase labour productivity are crucial for the growth of local economies.
Source: Estimated based on “Monthly Labour Survey (regional),” “Basic Survey on Wage Structure,” MHLW, “Prefectural Accounts,” Cabinet Office, “Retail Price Survey (Structural Survey),” “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure (2012),” “Population Estimates,” and “Regional Statistics Database,” Statistics Bureau, MIC. 18
y = 0.8009x + 8.575
R² = 0.7944
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.7
8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8
Ave
rage
an
nu
al in
com
e o
f fu
ll-ti
me
wo
rker
s (l
og-
tran
sfo
rmed
val
ue)
Labour productivity (log-transformed value)
Relationship of labour productivity and the average annual income of full-time workers
(13.186) (16.924)
(Yen)
(Yen/man hour)
Difference between the national average of the average annual income of full-time workers, excluding effects of educational levels etc. (%)
Young generations
All generations
Chapter 4 Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline - Challenges for creating a virtuous economic cycle in regions (2) -
There are correlations between improvements in labour productivity and the concentration of population, businesses, as well as human resources (e.g. people who have received higher education at universities or junior colleges, and people who work on self-development); it is important to effectively utilize these concentration benefits.
In order to enhance this human resource group, improvements in the employment situation and attractive employment opportunities are needed.
Source: Estimated based on “Monthly Labour Survey (regional),” MHLW, “Prefectural Accounts,” Cabinet Office, “Population Census (2010),” “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure (2012),” “Regional Statistics Database,” Statistics Bureau, MIC (left figure) (central figure). “Mynavi’s Survey on Job Expectations of University Students,” Mynavi Corporation (right figure)
19
y = 0.1115x + 7.7743 (6.809) (92.793)
R² = 0.5075
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Lab
ou
r p
rod
uct
ivit
y (l
og-
tran
sfo
rmed
val
ue)
Density of graduates of higher education institutes (log-transformed value)
Relationship between labour productivity and concentration of
graduates of higher education institutes (Yen/man-hour) (Yen/man-hour)
0
10
20
30
40
50
絶対に大手がよい
自分のやりたい仕事ができ
るのであれば大手企業がよ
い
やりがいのある仕事であれ
ば中堅・中小企業でもよい
中堅・中小企業がよい
その他(
公務員、Uターン志
望など)
自分で会社を起こしたい
Job expectations of university students
2005年卒
2010年卒
2015年卒
(%)
Class of 2005 Class of 2010
Class of 2015
(Number of graduates of higher education institutes/km2) (Number of people who work on self-development/km2) D
efin
itel
y w
ant
to w
ork
at
a la
rge
com
pan
y
A la
rge
com
pan
y is
des
irab
le if
th
e w
ork
mat
ches
my
care
er in
tere
sts
A s
mal
l or
med
ium
-siz
ed c
om
pan
y is
o
kay
if t
he
wo
rk is
sat
isfy
ing
Wan
t to
wo
rk a
t a
smal
l or
med
ium
-si
zed
co
mp
any
Oth
ers
(wan
t to
bec
om
e a
gove
rnm
ent
off
icia
l, w
ant
to r
etu
rn t
o
ho
me
tow
n, e
tc.)
Wan
t to
sta
rt u
p m
y o
wn
co
mp
any
Chapter 4 Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline - Challenges for creating a virtuous economic cycle in regions (3) -
In the era of population decline, it is important to make efforts to motivate people who do not have the experience of participating in the labour market to work and to encourage labour participation.
A large number of women who want to work are not searching for jobs due to bearing and raising of children. In order to encourage females of the child-rearing generation to work, sufficient day-care center capacity must be provided and long working hours must be suppressed to create an environment that enables the balancing of work and child-rearing.
Source: Estimated based on “Report on Circumstances Related to Day-Care Centers,” MHLW, “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure (2012),” “Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (2011),” and “Population Estimates,“ Statistics Bureau, MIC.
20
y = 0.5722x + 30.321
R² = 0.6305
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
20 30 40 50 60 70Ratio of day-care center capacity
Emp
loym
ent
rate
of
fem
ales
of
the
child
-re
arin
g ge
ner
atio
n
(%)
(%)
Relationship between the employment rate of females of the child-rearing generation and the ratio of day-care center
capacity
(10.633) (8.763)
y = 0.7773x + 45.025
R² = 0.4051
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
0 10 20 30 40
(%)
(%)
Emp
loym
ent
rate
of
fem
ales
of
the
child
-re
arin
g ge
ner
atio
n
Relationship between the employment rate of females of the child-rearing generation and the ratio of them living
with parents
(5.535) (23.060)
y = -0.4006x + 77.648
R² = 0.3698
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
30 50 70 90 110
Commute time of females of the child-rearing generation
(%)
(min.)
Relationship between the employment rate and the commute time of females of the child-rearing generation
(-5.138) (16.738)
y = 0.6051x + 37.02
R² = 0.1757
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
(%)
(%)
Emp
loym
ent
rate
of
fem
ales
of
the
child
-re
arin
g ge
ner
atio
n
(3.097) (6.469)
y = -2.7599x + 93.857
R² = 0.602
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
7 12 17 22
Relationship between the employment rate of females of the child-rearing generation and the ratio of workers of the child-
rearing generation working long hours
Emp
loym
ent
rate
of
fem
ales
of
the
child
-re
arin
g ge
ner
atio
n
(%)
Ratio of workers of the child-rearing generation working long hours
(%)
(-8.250) (19.346)
Relationship between the employment rate of females of the child-rearing generation and the amount of housework and child-rearing tasks performed by males of the child-rearing
generation in dual-income households
Amount of housework and child-rearing tasks performed by males of the child-rearing generation in dual-income households
Ratio of females of the child-rearing generation living with parents
Emp
loym
ent
rate
of
fem
ales
of
the
child
-re
arin
g ge
ner
atio
n