Study on UK Offshore Wind VariabilityDNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2016
09 February 2018
ENERGY
A review of wind speed inter-annual variability for the UK offshore wind climate
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DNV GL (published by The Crown Estate)
DNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018
ENERGY
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Reduce LCoE for future offshore wind projects by improving financing conditions through the provision of an improved characterisation of the long-term UK wind
resource.
DNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018
What is inter-annual variability and how does it impact project finance?
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Long-term measurement height wind regime Vertical extrapolation
Loss factors
Inter-annual variability
Future wind frequency distribution Inter-annual variability of the wind
Usually the largest uncertainty in an energy yield assessment.
“Industry standard” 6% typically applied: Raftery, P., Tindal, A.J., Garrad, A.D., “Understanding the risks of financing windfarms”, Proc. EWEA Wind Energy Conference, Dublin, 1997.
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
35 37.5 40 42.5 45 47.5 50 52.5 55 57.5 60 62.5 65
P50
σ
P90
Net Energy
Higher P90/P50 ratio typically lead to better finance arrangement and reduced LCoE
Chart10
35
40
43
45
46.5
47
47.5
48
49
50
51
52
52.5
53
53.5
55
57
60
65
0.0000117064
0.0019240284
0.0154259904
0.0410851036
0.0691344927
0.0789414816
0.0883186888
0.0968136959
0.1094247886
0.1139835087
0.1094247886
0.0968136959
0.0883186888
0.0789414816
0.0691344927
0.0410851036
0.0154259904
0.0019240284
0.0000117064
Sheet1
Overview of main conclusions
for UK offshore region
Agenda
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2. Calculation
3. Validation
2. Key results from Levelised Cost of Energy (LCoE) modelling
DNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018
Methodology for IAV assessment: Inputs datasets
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DNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018
Methodology for IAV assessment: Calculation
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Validations against offshore
measurements/ production data
Methodology for IAV assessment: Validation
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
Zone 3 North Sea
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
Barrow North Hoyle Burbo Bank Ormonde Walney 1 Walney 2 Robin Rigg E Robin Rigg W Rhyl Flats
N u
m b
er o
f va
li d
at io
n p
oi n
Zone 1 Irish Sea Production IAV Index IAV
DNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018
ENERGY
Reduction in LCoE estimated to be between 0.3% to 0.7% compared to “industry standard” base case.
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0,0%
0,1%
0,2%
0,3%
0,4%
0,5%
0,6%
0,7%
0,8%
0,9%
1,0%
0,0%
0,1%
0,2%
0,3%
0,4%
0,5%
0,6%
0,7%
0,8%
0,9%
1,0%
R ed
u ct
io n
in L
C oE
In cr
ea se
in P
9 0
/P 5
DNV GL © 2016 09 February 2018
Conclusions
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for UK Offshore region
DNV GL current best practice resulting from this work
DNV GL adopted values
Adjust the IAV predicted by the 20 year indices to…
• Account for longer historical period
• Account for sources of uncertainty in analysis:
• Quality of validation in each region
(wind speed vs production)
• Definition of a year
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
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With special thanks to: Gemma Daron, Circe Trivino (DNV GL) The Crown Estate Peer reviewed by: Mainstream, SSE, EDPR, DONG, RWE, IEC, UK Wind Resource Group
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A review of wind speed inter-annual variability for the UK offshore wind climate
Reduce LCoE for future offshore wind projects by improving financing conditions through the provision of an improved characterisation of the long-term UK wind resource.
What is inter-annual variability and how does it impact project finance?
Overview of main conclusions
Methodology for IAV assessment: Calculation
Methodology for IAV assessment: Validation
Reduction in LCoE estimated to be between 0.3% to 0.7% compared to “industry standard” base case.
Conclusions
DNV GL current best practice resulting from this work