structure and impact of rising food prices in india empirical review and qualitative assessment...
TRANSCRIPT
Structure and Impact of Rising Food Prices in India
Empirical Review and Qualitative Assessment
Abusaleh ShariffNational Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi
Presented in an international workshop on “Indian Agriculture: Improving Competition Markets and the Efficiency of Supply Chains” jointly organized by Australian Centre for International Agriculture Research, and NCAER, New Delhi, 16 February, 2011
Presentation is based on a draft paper – ‘Food Security in the Context of Food Price Rise in India: An empirical review, by Abusaleh Shariff and Ganga Shreedhar, January 2011
• Global Food Price Increase 2008-9 | Domestic Food Inflation 2009-10
• Structure of Food stress and implication for markets & Food Security?
• Product specific price movements in recent months /years
•Income and price dynamics of food consumption (demand)
•Food Consumption behavior & differentials
•Understanding Coping mechanisms
•Safety Net Policies and Efficiency2Shariff's PPT
Motivation for this Study
Quantitative and Qualitative Methods
(1) Monthly Price movements May 2006- June 2009 25 food and fuel items | 78 towns/cities
(2) Nationally representative sample survey of households,
human development survey, NCAER-2004-5|N=40,000 rural-urban
Price, income & substitution effects - rice, wheat and milk
(3) Qualitative rapid surveys and focus group interviews
Coping mechanisms - UP, MP, Karnataka and Delhi-NCT.
(4) Review safety net/social protection policies –
PMT Score method - improve targeting efficiency
Food Price Surge: 2007-08
• Focus on the poor and vulnerable• Rural and Urban differentials
• Diversity in Coping behavior• Efficacy of programs mitigating food crisis
• Improving food security of the poor
International Cereal Price Links
• International Rice and Wheat Price surge
- from mid-2007 to mid-2009
• Prices in India did not rise
• Rather Indian price rise dramatically only from mid- 2009 and continued into 2010, when actually international food prices crashed!
Market Size and Price Movements Specific Food Items
• 78 Towns / Cities Size Class < 1 lakh
1-5 lakh
5-10 lakh
10-25 lakh
25-50 lakh
50 + lakhs
Note: Town/city class size cutoffs are chosen so as to ensure that a reasonable percentage of total population is covered in each of the category.
• 25 Food Items Monthly Price Movements
Wheat, Rice (common variety) , Wheat Flour Atta (processed)
Milk, Pulses, Vegetables – Onion etc , Cooking Oil
Fish, Meats, Chicken, Eggs
Kerosene
Commentary
Monthly Cereal consumption Shares and Quantities
Cereal/ SectorIndia
Rural Urban All
Share of selected cereal consumption (%ge)
Rice 56.1 52.3 55.3
Wheat 36.5 41.8 37.9
Other Cereal 10.9 5.7 9.3
Monthly Household Consumption (Kgs./Reporting HHs)
Rice 37.8 24.5 33.9
Wheat 30.6 22.8 28.1
Other Cereal 17.4 8.8 15
Mean for all HHs
All Cereals 63.5 45.7 58.3Source: Calculated by the author using HD- Survey (2004-05).
Commentary
Monthly Per Capita Consumption by Income Quintile Kgs/Liters
QuintileSelect Items
RiceRural
Rice UrbanWheat Rural
Wheat Urban
Milk Rural Milk Urban Vegetables
RuralVegetables
urban
Lowest 7.1 4.7 6.4 5.3 2.9 3.2 3.7 3.5
Q2 7.3 4.9 6.2 5.1 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.7
Q3 7.3 5.0 6.1 4.9 4.1 5.1 4.2 4.4
Q4 7.0 5.0 6.3 5.0 5.4 6.2 4.2 4.8
Highest 6.5 5.3 6.4 5.0 6.9 8.1 4.5 5.4
Total 7.1 5.0 6.3 5.0 4.4 5.2 4.0 4.2
Commentary
Household Quantity Consumed a day before interview, selected States
Rice consumption is relatively more sensitive to price rise
Possibly due to substitution to cheaper cereals which is mostly wheat
Home Grown Rice help sustain consumption upto 30%
Home Grown Wheat help sustain consumption upto 13%
Home produced Milk help sustain consumption upto 50%
Multivariate Analysis Suggests
Results
Source: Calculated by authors using IHD-Survey (2004-05).
Sources of Household Grain Consumption
Comments
Sources of Household Rice and Wheat
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
% share
(b) Rice by Income Quintiles
Rice Paid/Market Rice Home Grown Rice PDS
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
% share
(b) Wheat by Income Quintiles
Wheat Paid/Market Wheat Home Grown Wheat PDS
Short Term Coping Mechanisms Reported by Households (%)
StateReduced
food
intake
Breakdown
of
social
network
Increased
debt
Child
withdrawn
from School
Child Sent
for meager
wage
Sold livestockSold utility
assets
Migrated
out
All
Rural83 66 45 23 11 25 13 18
UP
70 48 49 35 20 41 19 45MP
95 80 68 11 3 5 13 8Karnataka
80 68 9 26 12 33 6 1All
Urban93 76 29 25 11 5 14 6
UP
91 50 31 31 20 4 21 13MP
100 83 45 19 12 2 10 7Karnataka
93 83 13 21 6 8 7 0Delhi
91 86 39 28 9 3 19 6Comments
Typology of Low Food Stress
Sustain quantity at the cost of quality
PDS present and generally accessible
Marginal dependence on general market
Income and consumption smoothening possible
No takers for NREGA, even women
Can deal with idiosyncratic shocks except health crisis
Moderate Food Stress
RURAL
Face food shortages, inadequate home production, Irregular and limited PDS but high dependence,Depends on market to bridge consumption needsLow income and consumption smootheningMigration both seasonal and long termConditional (higher wage) demand for NREGADifficulty in dealing with idiosyncratic shocks and health crisis
URBAN
Face food shortages, no home production Irregular and limited PDS but high dependenceDepends on market to bridge consumption needsLow income and consumption smootheningSome are recent-migrantsDifficulty in dealing with idiosyncratic shocks and health crisis
High Food Stress
RURAL
Young earners migrate leaving old and vulnerable in villageLow productivity agriculture and lack of irrigationPoorly developed non-farm employmentLack of awareness about NREGANonexistent wage-empl. opportunity in and around village
URBAN
Unstable families in urban fringe, uprooted from rural partsManual labor, beedi rolling, cycle rickshaw etcPoor employment and low wages, and lower occupational diversity No home produced food, No or low PDS accessTotal dependence on general marketLow capacity for income and consumption smootheningCannot deal with idiosyncratic shocks, High incidence of sickness
SAFETY NETS
Public Distribution System
Exclusion and Inclusion Errors
Recent period has seen increased public spending on safety nets & food subsidy for food security…..
Central Government Safety Net Outlays
Source: (Ministry of Finance, Various years) (Central Statistical Organization, Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, 2010)
Central Government Food Subsidy Bill
Comments
MG-NREGS allocation is about 0.7% of GDP
Nearly as much as the food subsidy bill
MG-NREGS, Rural Wage Employment
2008One time schemed in response to the spate of famers’ suicides perceived to be driven largely by the inability to repay debts.
Total expenditure 2008/09 was Rs 150 billion (about $US 3.3 billion)
Agri. Debt Waiver and Relief
PDS Card Ownership by Income Quintile
Exclusion and Inclusion Errors in PDS
BPL APL No CardRural India 42.1 43.2 14.8Urban India 22.2 56.6 21.2
Poverty Estimates by Standard MeasureRural India
Poor (25.9) 52.2 32.7 15.1Non-Poor (74.1) 39.1 46.2 14.7
Urban IndiaPoor (22.8) 36.3 46.1 17.6Non-Poor (77.2) 19.0 59.0 22.0
Deprived Estimated using PMT Score MethodRural India
Deprived (35.3) 55.4 28.6 16.0Better Off (64.7) 34.7 51.2 14.1
Urban IndiaDeprived (39.1) 33.7 44.3 22.0Better Off (60.9) 17.0 62.2 20.8
The Overlap- Poor Versus Deprived
Deprived (PMT) Better Off (PMT)
Rural India 35.3 64.7
Poor (std. method) 25.9 41.8 17.2
Non-Poor (std. method) 74.1 58.2 82.8
Urban India 39.1 60.9
Poor (std. method) 22.8 46.2 7.7
Non-Poor (std. method) 77.2 53.8 92.3
Add on Threat Leading to Malnutrition:Incidence of Diarrhea among the Under-5 year Old Children
Income class
India
Rural Urban Total
All 10.2 6.9 9.4
Quintiles
Lowest 10.3 8.1 9.8
2 12.1 6.6 10.9
3 11.0 6.3 9.8
4 8.3 6.4 7.8
Highest 5.9 5.6 5.8
Thank you
Wheat - Prices lower in smaller towns price rises at town size increase
Wheat Flour – price highest in smaller towns lower in large cities
Even a small processing value added and marketing increases the price considerably and add on transportation make prohibitive in rural areas
Centralized processing of Cereals must be discouraged
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High consumption in Rural - 64 kgs Urban - 46 kgs
Share of Rice is higher more so in Rural area
Wheat relatively an Urban Cereal
Cereal Consumption
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Marginal differences between income class
- both Rice and Wheat | Rural and Urban
Extremely large differences between income class
- Milk and Vegetables and other value added
Not surprising !
Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Income Class
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backMultivariate ImpactVariable
Wheat Rice Milk
Dependent Variable Log of PCM Wheat con. (Kg.) Log of PCM Rice con. (Kg.) Log of PCM Milk con. (litre)
Independent Variable Coef. P>t Coef. P>t Coef. P>t
_cons 2.78 0.000 2.81 0.000 1.74 0.000
Price EffectLog of Wheat Prices (Rs/Kg.) Log of Rice Prices (Rs/Kg.) Log of Milk Prices (Rs/litre)
-0.39 0.000 -0.54 0.000 -0.16 0.000Source of Cereal
PDS Wheat 0.02 0.012na na na na
Home Grown Wheat 0.13 0.000na na na na
Home Grown Other than Wheat -0.14 0.000na na na na
PDS Rice nana
0.06 0.000na na
Home Grown Ricena na
0.30 0.000na na
Home Grown Other than Rice na na
-0.30 0.000na na
Milk Production at Homena na na na
0.48 0.000
Home Grown Cerealsna na na na
0.03 0.038
Number of obs. 32139 38805 31028
Prob > F 0.000 0.000 0.000
R-squared 0.70 0.72 0.39
Adj R-squared 0.69 0.72 0.39
Root MSE 0.54 0.60 0.74
Urban Cereals85 - 90% Market dependence
Rural Cereals 50% Market, 35% Self, 10-15& PDS
Marginal Difference by income classMiddle income HHs use more PDS!
Market Dominates
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80 - 90% reduce consumption
70-80% face breakdown of social networks:Inflation impact households uniformly; and make them cautious
High Indebtedness 50% in rural areas
About a quarter HHs withdraw children from schoolAnd another 10% resort to child labor
Sale of livestock, and household assets also reported
Rural households migrate out in search of income (18%)
Multiple Coping Mechanisms
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Food subsidy bill represents the basic direct cost incurred by the center from procurement, stocking and supplying to various food based safety nets such as PDS
Food Subsidy Outlays: 0.6% of the GDP in 2006/07 0.8% of the GDP in 2008/09 and 2009/10
Rs. 400 billion - partly cost of rising MSPs and procurement and no corresponding increases in the issue price of grain for safety nets like PDS
Food Subsidy Outlays
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