drought in pakistan lead pakistan ldp, karachi 3 june 2015 brig. (r) kamran shariff
TRANSCRIPT
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Drought in Pakistan
LEAD Pakistan LDP, Karachi
3 June 2015
Brig. (R) Kamran Shariff
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Outline:
• Setting the stage; • Drought prone regions and historical perspective; • Hazard risk rating; • Climate change and the meteorological perspective; • Drought situation 2014 onwards: water, food and agriculture, health
and livestock; • Drought governance in Pakistan; • Drought monitoring; and • Mitigation strategies
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Definitions: • Drought is a slow onset disaster whose onset occurs as a
consequence of rainfall shortage but its impact varies in various regions consistent with the local environment, weather, soil conditions and host of other factors. Its impact, unlike other natural disasters, extends over considerable space;
• Variants: Meteorological, hydrological, agricultural & socio-economic• Drought Mitigation: structural / physical measures (appropriate
crops, dams or engineering projects) or non-structural measures (policies, awareness, knowledge development, public commitment, and operating practices) undertaken to limit the adverse impacts of drought;
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Definitions:
• Drought Response: efforts such as provision of assistance or intervention during or immediately after a drought disaster to meet life preservation and basic subsistence needs of the affected population. It can be of immediate, short term or protracted duration;
Source: ISDR • Sustainable Development: meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. (World Bank)
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Question:
Is drought a disaster situation warranting emergency response; or a developmental issue with a drought situation reflecting developmental deficit ?
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Components of a drought policy
Sustainable development; • Water security; • Food security; • Livelihood diversity;• Environmental security; • Rangelands management; • Livestock management; Mitigation strategies; Emergency response management; Awareness raising and capacity building
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Drought Actors:
• Federal Government: Planning Commission, WAPDA, Ministry of Climate Change, NHPREN, Ministry of Food Research, NDMA, PARC, PMD, SUPARCO;
• Provincial Government: Departments: P&D, Food, Health, Livestock, Forest, Agriculture, Irrigation, PDMA, Provincial Nutrition Cell;
• Districts: Relevant departments of the District Government led by the DC;
• UN Agencies: WFP, UNICEF, FAO, WHO, UNDP, relevant NGOss
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Deserts / Rangelands:
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Cholistan:
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Drought prone regions of Pakistan: The Thar Desert: spread over 320,000 square kms with 85% in India.Pakistan’s Thar desert is spread over approx 50,000 square kms across Tharparkar, parts of Umarkot, Sanghar, Khairpur and Ghotki; Kirthar Range in Sindh: Spread over 25,000 sq kms, it extends into Jamshoro, Dadu and part of Thatta district; Rangelands of Balochistan: comprise 79% of the landmass. Include Central Balochistan Quetta and Kalat; Western Balochistan desert: Chagai, Kharan, Gwador, Lasbela and Kharan. Eastern Balochistan Zhob and Loralai regions; Cholistan Desert: 26,3000 square kms along Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur & Rahim Yar Khan and the Indian border; Thal Desert: Bhakkar, Khushab, Mianwali and Leyyah between Jhelum and Indus; Issues: Overgrazing, water management, desertification, barani agriculture, poor services, weak environmental management
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Droughts in historical perspective:
• Major droughts recur in 12-16 years cycle and lesser versions every 4-6 years in the vulnerable regions;
1999-2001 Drought: • Affected the entire country but Balochistan was worst affected
followed by Sindh; • 3 million pop affected and 2.5 million livestock lost; • 58 districts seriously affected, or which 23 were from
Balochistan; • Agricultural growth registered negative 2.5%. Losses estimated
at $1.2 billion; economic growth retarded by 2.6%;
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Drought in historical perspective:
• IFIs assisted $ 360 million Drought Emergency Releif Assistance programme focused on emergency response, communication and water infrastructure mainly;
• Chronic water shortages negatively impacted on traditional coping mechanism;
• Livestock distress sale and increased morbidity and mortality; • High incidence of water borne disease and chronic and acute
mal nutrition; • Socioeconomic poverty
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Hazard and risk assessment factors:
Baseline Factors: • Food and nutritional security; • Access to improved drinking water; • Fully immunised children 12-23 months; • Total 12 marksDrought Vulnerability Aspects: • Drought occurrence; • Exposure: % of population in drought vulnerable areas; • Drought impact. • Total 18 marks. Grand total: 30 marks
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Present Drought Situation; Climate change aspect:
• There is evidence to suggest that global warming has negatively impacted upon the Pakistan's environment, like causing loss of bio-diversity, shifts in the weather patterns and reduced fresh water supply. Climate change trends are synonymous with climate variability in terms of flash floods and drought incidence;
• Prevalence of El Nino conditions;
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2013 Summer Monsoons
2014 Summer Monsoons
October 2014 November 2014
December 2014 February 2015
Pakistan Plus 10% Minus 23% Plus 59% Minus 3% Minus 99% Minus 16%
Sindh Minus 21% Minus 78% Minus 94% Minus 48% Minus 100% Minus 74%
Balochistan Plus 11% Minus 33% Minus 42% Plus 10% Minus 100% Minus 42%
Punjab Plus 9% Minus 1% Plus 63% Plus 14% Minus 100% Minus 11%
KP Plus 13% Minus 32% Plus 173% Minus 19% Minus 98% Plus 15%
GB Plus 12% Plus 118% Plus 12% Plus 21% Minus 100% Minus 36%
AJ&K Plus 6% Normal Plus 1% Plus 1% Minus 100% No departure
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Drought 2014 onwards:
• Water security in Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh), Cholistan and Balochistan;
• Food security and agriculture; • Health: • Livestock situation; • The Balochistan drought situation• Priority of needs identified by the communities: water,
livestock, health, food
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Water security
1961-62 To 1970-71 1971-72 To 1980-81 1981-82 To 1990-91 1991-92 To 2000-01 2001-02 To 2010-11 2011-12 To 2013-14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
132.83128.67
131.31
137.22
122.31 121.80
17.1612.54
7.02 8.26
1.695.02
Western Rivers Eastern Rivers
Period
Infl
ow V
olum
e (M
AF)
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Health: Nutrition status 2014, < 5 deaths 2012, 2014 ;
Districts Umarkot Sanghar Kambar S Tharparkar Thatta Shikarpur Jacobabad Kashmore Badin Dadu
GAM 2014 25.3% 24.1% 22.3% 22.2% 19.2% 18.2% 13.% 13.3% 9.7% 4.2%
Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharparkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu
2012 198 441 234 318 59 436 1257 88 186 554
2014 259 592 314 587 203 356 1707 89 189 668
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Health: < 5 deaths 2012, 2014; < 1 deaths 2012, 2014
Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharparkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu
2012 174 4083 373 245 99 1401 608 484 357 2124
2014 166 299 162 366 131 872 321 175 230 408
Districts Umarkot Sanghar Mirpurks Tharprkr Thatta Khairpur Sukkur Ghotki Badin Dadu
2012 160 3771 351 135 66 1365 332 412 216 17102014 161 50 127 144 56 848 43 125 178 95
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National Drought Steering Committee
Provincial Drought Steering Committee
Regional Drought Task Force (DTF)
NDMA Drought Monitoring Cell
• Planning Commission (Lead)• Ministry of Water and Power• Ministry of Climate Change• Ministry of Food Security• Ministry of Finance• National Health Emergency
Preparedness and Response Network• WAPDA• NARC• NDMA• PMD• PCRWR
• Planning & Development Department (Lead)
• Irrigation Department• Food and Livestock Department• Health Department• Education Department• PDMA• Community Welfare Department• Social Welfare Department• Provincial Nutrition Cell
• Commissioner (Lead)• DCs• DHO Health• Livestock• Food Controller• Revenue Department• Social Welfare• Community Development Department• Forest• NGOs• Community members
Nati
on
alP
rovi
nci
alR
egi
on
al
First RespondersVulnerable Districts and
CommunitiesDis
tric
ts
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Drought Monitoring: Issues • Meteorological and hydrological networks are often
inadequate in terms of monitoring parameters; • Forecasts often lack reliability on seasonal timescale and
specificity, thus restricting their use; • Drought monitoring systems lack integration, including
those of climate change, water and soil parameters and socio-economic to map the drought magnitude, spatial extent and potential impact;
• Drought early warning dissemination methods are lacking in reach to the end users, and thus do not support decision making at multiple response levels;
• Data sharing is inadequate between government agencies and research institutions;
• Drought impact assessment, monitoring methods are not standard. .
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Drought Monitoring:
• Global facilities & regional networks; • In Pakistan, PMD Drought Early Warnng Centre uses Standard
Precipitation Index. Fortnightly and three monthly updates; • SUPARCO issues monthly crops situation updates. Uses
Keetch Byram Index; • WFP disseminates monthly market prices bulletin and
quarterly food security update; • Need for Integration; • Proposed integrated drought monitoring and response
mechanisms for Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh) and Cholistan
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Drought Mitigation Strategies: • Addresses (1) water, (2) food and agriculture, (3) health, (4) livestock and
range management; (5) cbdrm; and (6) climate change adaptation;• Align mitigation with development, and emergency responses with
mitigation;Strategy development: • Sustainable development; • Sustainable consumption; • Institution building + governance aspects; • Reinforce structural capacity; • Promote integration and coordination; • Institutionalise research and capacity building;• Promote climate smart management.
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Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Water: • Policy issues; • Supply side management; • Water demand management; • Ecological solutions; • Water governance; • Desalination • Emergency response management
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Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Food and Agriculture: • Policy inputs;• Research and capacity building • Promotion of less water demanding crops; • Soil conservation; • Watershed management; • Water conservation; • Emergency response management.
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Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Health and Nutrition: Reinforce needs based nutrition interventions; Reproductive health; Human resource; Access and outreach; Disease surveillance and responses; Preventive and curative
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Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Rangeland Management: • Mapping of inventory building; • Measures for checking desertification; • Rangeland usage control; • Reinforce goverance aspects; • Promote communities inclusive management;Livestock: Veterinary support, planning for emergency support, emergency fodder solutions, community awareness raising and capacity building
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Tharparkar Drought Response 2015
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Emergency FoodWater TankeringHealth outreach
Water Security/RO PlantsNutrition CMAMEcological Interventions (water)Livestock sanctuaries
Water infrastructureHealth infrastructure
Mitigation Actions
Infrastructure Projects
Emergency Response