strike group oceanography team unclassified metoc preparation of the battle space, operational...

Strike Group Oceanography Team 1UNCLASSIFIED

METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage

THIS BRIEF IS UNCLASSIFIED

CDR Ashley Evans, USNCommanding Officer, SGOT-SD



Global Fleet OperationsGlobal Fleet Operations



PANAMAX 2008PANAMAX 2008



Joint Logistics Over The ShoreJoint Logistics Over The ShoreJLOTS 2008JLOTS 2008



EASTPAC StormsEASTPAC Storms



Battlespace On DemandBattlespace On DemandLinking Forecasts to DecisionsLinking Forecasts to Decisions

Decision superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary



CNMOC 2009 Goal #3CNMOC 2009 Goal #3

Prepare for TomorrowPrepare for Tomorrow• Focus “Battlespace on Demand” Decision

Support− Intuitive, accessible GI&S-based products embedded in

Navy/Joint C4I− Navy / National Weather & Ocean Modeling Strategy− Develop selected ‘Decision Layer’ (Tier III) products− Speed to Capability

• Play a critical role in:− UUV’s − Undersea Warfare Advances− Climate Change / Arctic Ops− Energy Alternatives and Efficiency

• Expand Joint Wx operations with USAF and NOAA

Strike Group Oceanography Team 10

UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage

Gaps in SupportGaps in Support

Strategic Operational Tactical

Lev

el o

f E

ffo

rt

Years Months Weeks Days Hours

COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey

Program

OPLAN/CONPLAN

Studies

TASTOS

Mission execution briefs

OpportunityTrade Space

Lev

el o

f Im

pac

t

Operational Planning

Team Engagement

OPLAN/CONPLAN

Development

EnvironmentalReconnaissanceEnvironmental

Reconstruction and Analysis

MissionPlanning Cell Engagement



When - WESTPAC 2004 Typhoon When - WESTPAC 2004 Typhoon TracksTracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM TYPHOON

DATA FROM 30 JUL-15 OCT 2004 STORMS 12W TO 28W

PROVIDED BY JTWC NPMOC PEARL HARBOR

CONSIDERED AN AVERAGE TYHPOON SEASON



JCSSG Western Pacific Deployment 2004JCSSG Western Pacific Deployment 2004METOC ImpactsMETOC Impacts

Guam Area(11-16 Oct)

TY27W – TokageTY28W – Nock-Ten

2 days flight ops cancelled1 day flight ops shortened

4 days of Seas > 8ft1 days with ceilings < 300’

Gulf of Alaska(2-16 Jun)

2 Major Storm Systems3 days flight ops cancelled1 day flight ops shortened

4 days of Seas > 8ft2 days with ceilings < 300’

6 STW missions to PARC no drop due to WX (clouds)20 days with SST < 50°

South China Sea(28Aug - 17 Sep)

TS23W1 day flight ops shortened

3 days Seas > 8ft1 day with ceilings < 300’

Malacca Strait waterspout

Eastern Australia Ocean (20Sep – 8 Oct)

1 day flight ops cancelled1 day flight ops shortened

6 days of Seas > 8ft2 STW missions to Lancelin range

no drop due to WX (clouds)

Okinawa Area(7-16 Aug)

TY15W MalouTY16W Rananim

TY18W Megi8 days Seas > 8 ft

2 days flight ops cancelled1 day flight ops shortened

Sasebo - Tokyo Port Call(20-25 Aug)

STY19W – ChabaTY20W - Aere

East China Sea(18-27 Aug)

TS21WTY22W Songda5 days Seas > 8ft

Hawaii OPAREA(29 Jun - 26 Jul)

5 STW missions to PTA no drop due to WX (clouds)

September

November

MayJuneJuly

August

October

MODLOCTRANSITPVST



Adapted from the movie “Patton” (1970)

Environmental Decision Superiority for Environmental Decision Superiority for the 21the 21stst Century Patton and Halsey Century Patton and Halsey



Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project.

Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics accordingly.

SST (oC), East China Sea, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006. Note pronounced interannual variations and long term positive trend.

Smart Climatology

Traditional Climatology

year

T (oC)

Smart Climatology – Analysis MethodsSmart Climatology – Analysis MethodsLong Term Fluctuations and Trends – SST, East China Sea, Jul-Sep



40 E 60

E 80

E 100

E 120

E

10 S

0

10 N

20 N

30 N

EDH

0 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18

Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses.

a b

Smart Climatology Existing Navy Climatology

Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and

operationally useful products.

Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.

Smart Climatology – Data SetsSmart Climatology – Data SetsEvaporation Duct HeightsEvaporation Duct Heights



Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful

products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program:

NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.

Smart Climatology

40 E 60

E 80

E 100

E 120

E

10 S

0

10 N

20 N

30 N

EDH

0 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18

40 E 60

E 80

E 100

E 120

E

10 S

0

10 N

20 N

30 N

EDH AREPS Marsden Sq Climatology for Sep

0 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology after plotting in map form by NPS. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal

atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses.

a b

Traditional Climatology

Smart Climatology – Data SetsSmart Climatology – Data SetsEvaporation Duct HeightsEvaporation Duct Heights



17

Apply smart climo methods to develop systems for producing weekly to seasonal predictions of the upper ocean and the atmosphere that drives it.

Analyses of climate scale relationships between large scale environmentand TCs leads to predictions of TC activity at leads of weeks to months.

TC Formation Probability for 2006 Week 40

120 E 150

E 180

E 150

W

15 S

0

15 N

30 N

45 N

Verifying observations of TC

formation sites during 01-07 Oct 2006

25%

10%

40%

55%

70%

Results shown are from NPS hindcast.

Experimental forecastsin development at NPS.

TC FormationProbabilities

for 01-07 Oct 2006

Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer.

ASW Smart Climo, [email protected], Jan08

Smart Climatology – Long Lead PredictionSmart Climatology – Long Lead PredictionTropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction, Western North Pacific

Method very applicable to probabilistic forecasts of TC intensity and track.



Probabilistic Forecast Techniques Probabilistic Forecast Techniques and Ensemble Modelingand Ensemble Modeling



Image Valid: 17/06Z

Location Current HURCON Closest Point Of Approach

Kadena N/A 486NM (18/18Z)

Kadena

Wed 17/00Z60G75Kt

Typhoon Dolphin Typhoon > 64 Kts

Tropical Storm 34 – 63 Kts

Tropical Depression < 34 Kts

Remnant Low < 25 Kts

6

6

o6

6

L

Typhoon CategoriesTyphoon: 64 – 129 Kts

Super Typhoon: >130 Kts

Rain Total*4 – 8 inches Storm Surge*

N/AWave Heights*

20 – 24 feet

*Near Center of Storm

Thu 18/06Z40G50Kt

Thu 18/06Z40G50Kt

Wed 17/18Z55G70Kt

Fri 19/06Z20G30Kt



Key Fleet Capabilities for Key Fleet Capabilities for 21st Century Support 21st Century Support

• Data, Data, Data– Globally connected with links to other services,

multinational, federal, and state agencies

• Smart Climatology and hybrid LRF– Without a robust data feed - marginal results

• Global Model (NOGAPS/GFS) Ensemble Feed as Initial Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Models and meso-scale models

– Develop first order sensitivity guidance for military forecaster use with Ensembles

• Google Presentation Feed for the Millennium Generation

– Standardized– Built to the sailor’s cognitive environment



QuestionsQuestions

strike group oceanography team unclassified metoc preparation of the battle space, operational...

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