stress, fear, and panic: decision-making in dynamic, high-risk environments marc lusk amarillo fire...
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Stress, Fear, and Panic:Decision-Making in Dynamic,
High-Risk Environments
Marc Lusk
Amarillo Fire Department
“… a better understanding
of how
stress, fear, and panic
combine to erode rational thinking” - Putnam
Presentation Goal:
The Precipitation:
“The reality of our [fire service] culture
is very simple…
we hire aggressive firefighters…”
- Kreis
“I knew I was in trouble.
I thought
about using my radio,
but I thought,
I found my way in;
I can find my way out.”- Hospitalized Seattle Firefighter
“…numerous people who were not moving
and were still watching the stage”
- Interviewed Survivor
Civilian Reactions:
Station Nightclub Fire
:54 seconds -
Cameraman leaves Lobby
Wildland FF Reactions:
“…the twelve firefighters
did not at first hike
at maximum speed….
everyone failed to recognize
early enough
the danger of the situation.”- Maclean
Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)
5. Experience
Risk Propensity:
Self-control
Danger-seeking
Energy
Impulsiveness
Invincibility
Risk Perception :
“Each decision maker has…
a unique set
of resulting behaviors”
- Williams
900 ft.
Risk Perception :Invincibility -
A Wonderful Thing
“… keep a 2-mile
"buffer zone"
between you and
the storm.”- NWS
Risk Perception :
How many
telephone posts
are there in two
miles?
Risk Perception :
1. Commercial Pilots: 27% of accidents
2. Ambulance Drivers: Black boxes
3. Firefighters: More frequent and severe injuries
Violations Will Occur:
Risk vs. Policy:
Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)
5. Experience
1) Multiple Info Sources
2) Conflicting Info
Stressors:
http://sanderling.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/uss_vincennes2.jpg
USS Vincennes
3) Rapidly Evolving Situation
4) Time Pressure
5) Threat
Complex decisions
must be made despite
time pressure,
uncertainty,
external threat,
and physical hardships.
O’Fallon,
Illinois
1. Reduce opportunity to gather information
Police Officer: Shoot/No Shoot Situation
2. Disrupt working memory
My Mother-In-Law
3. Distract attention from the operational goals
A-10 and F-16 Mishaps
Stressors:
Stressors Affect Decisions:
Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)
5. Experience
Crowded rooms during Decision-Making
Presentations – The Exits
Airline Passengers – The Exits
Nuclear Power Plant Operators – Procedures
Availability Bias:
Recollection of Information:
Representativeness Bias:
Categorizing:Underground Miners
“… did not select the
most efficient strategy
- they chose further
information over
action”
Representativeness Bias:
Does a Near-miss
make a person
more cautious
or
less cautious
the next time?
Representativeness Bias:
Near-Misses:
Mars Rover Operators
“… categorized the
current [similar]
circumstances as being
survivable”
Anchor and Adjustment Bias:
Making an Initial Decision and Sticking To It :
Air Florida Flight 90
- 78 fatalities
Overconfidence Biases:
Illusory Optimism
Invulnerability
Illusion
Framing Bias:
1. Complacency
7 of 9 mishaps involving C-130 aircraft
2. Expectations
USS Vincennes – gunboat skirmishes
3. Commercial Pilots
Keeping schedules vs. pre-flight checklist
Firefighters Are Human Too:
“I knew I was in trouble.
I thought about using my radio,
but I thought, I found my way in;
I can find my way out.”- Seattle
Firefighter
Representativeness
Anchor and Adjustment
Illusory Optimism
Invulnerability Illusion
People Are Human Too:
Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Emotions
5. Experience
Emotional Reactions:
1. Situations are felt to be Good or Bad
2. Denial
3. Anxiety
A generalized condition w/o direct trigger
4. Panic:
A sudden fear which dominates/replaces thinking
Physical Reactions:
1. Pupils dilate
2. Muscles tighten
3. Heart-rate/Breathing
increases
4. Blood is shunted
Oxygen/Nutrients
Heat (Perspiration)“Fight or Flight”
Response
Impairments:
1. Fine Motor Skills
2. Temporal Distortion
3. Memory Disruption
4. Channeled Attention
Emotional Reaction:
MS Estonia
“People lose their ability to make
decisions.
They turn into statues.”
- Sherwood
Emotions:
"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer."
--- Frank Herbert, Dune
A Walk
in the
Woods
Fear and the Amygdala:
1. Thalamic Pathway The Low Road
2. Cortical Pathway The High Road
Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”
10% will react Rationally
Relatively Calm
Decision-making is sharp and focused
Able to prioritize, plan, and take action
Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”
80% will be “Stunned and Bewildered”
Behavior is mechanical, reflexive
Reasoning is significantly impaired
Perceptual narrowing (tunnel vision)
Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”
10% will react Inappropriately:
Loss of behavioral control
Decision-making is counterproductive
Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Emotions
5. Experience
Recognition-Primed Decision-Making:
1. Naturalistic
2. Efficiency
3. Trigger points
4. Reduces
cognitive load
Recognition-Primed Decision-Making:
The Problem is -
How many times
do we experience
a true emergency?Kevin Green/News-Journal Photo
Flipping the Switch:
Theory of 10/80/10:
Most will be stunned
Temporary effect
Seek calmness
Plan for emergencies
Experience:
Novices have difficulty gathering, integrating, and
understanding informational cues
Improves knowledge of performance needed
Develops a better understanding of how stressors,
biases, and emotions impact decisions
Education:
“You rarely get someone
to jump a skill level
by teaching more facts and rules….
we cannot expect to grow
instant experts ”
- Williams
Training:
“familiarity with the criterion environment….effective task performanceunder stress conditions”
- Driskell and Johnston
Experience:
Variety of experience
is more important
than simple years of service.
Mentoring:
“to enhance the
development of
perceptual expertise
in the trainees” - Klein
Train Your Mentors:
Leadership:
“…individuals respond well
to a leader, however, if leadership is lacking,people tend to become
confused.”
- Kowalski-Trakofler and Vaught.MS Estonia
Risk perception can be modified,
Stressors can be mitigated,
Biases can be minimized,
Emotions can be mastered.
Training and Experience:
Questions?
Your Turn: